Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
We will see an increasing number of people changing their positions on global warming as the global warming ship sinks. It will take various forms including; articles appearing that subtly shift previously held positions; reevaluation of data; or finding new evidence that allows a change and perhaps worst of all those who say they knew the science was wrong all along but did not consider it important to speak out; dredging up a sentence or two from their writings that they claim showed they knew. The level of inventiveness will astonish as rats desert the sinking ship.
I am not well disposed to any of these people since the evidence was there all along. They chose not to see it, for a variety of reasons none of which are valid and as the old proverb says there are none so blind as those who will not see. I admit I hold some animosity to this group as I head to Vancouver for my first of two trials [although I received three lawsuits all from the same lawyer and all from members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] trial for speaking out against the misuse of science for a political agenda and the scientific deception and corruption this engendered. When I realize that if even a few of these people had spoken out I would likely not have suffered the lawsuits, personal attacks, death threats and career limiting denial of funding, loss of speaking opportunities, and having my wife cry now if someone knocks on my door at four on a Friday afternoon because that is the time that all three court summons were delivered. The timing was deliberate as I only had 48 hours to respond.
I am glad Mr. McCarter finally saw the light as expressed in his article “Naïve scientists awakens to the politics underlying climate change”, but it is too late, too easy and self-serving. It is precisely his ‘I don’t want to know attitude’ that the perpetrators of the global warming deception knew would happen and exploited. What he doesn’t know is that the three Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation (SLAPP) I received were not only to silence me but also to have a much wider chilling effect against anyone else who dared to speak out. It was very effective because of the silence of so many who didn’t want to know. There is safety in numbers, but a majority chose to say and do nothing. I know first-hand what Voltaire meant when he said
“It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong.”
Or for my fellow Canadian
Il est dangereux d’avoir raison dans des choses où des hommes accrédités ont tort.
Why didn’t McCarter act when the emails were leaked from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) providing clear evidence that it was more than politics but included the abuse of science by scientists? Here is a list of the activities set out by Mosher and Fuller.
· Actively worked to evade (Steve) Mcintyre’s Freedom of Information requests, deleting emails, documents, and even climate data
· Tried to corrupt the peer-review principles that are the mainstay of modern science, reviewing each other’s’ work, sabotaging efforts of opponents trying to publish their own work, and threatening editors of journals who didn’t bow to their demands
· Changed the shape of their own data in materials shown to politicians charged with changing the shape of our world, ‘hiding the decline’ that showed their data could not be trusted.
Even if only half these charges are true, they are activities that would and should have triggered McCarter to action. It appears they did not, so the question is how much more did he need? How are things any different now that causes McCarter to respond? The apparent answer is that there are no consequences and he will be praised for his enlightenment and forgiven for his failures. Sorry, it is far too late, inadequate, and unworthy of praise. How much damage has occurred because of decisions he made to ignore the problems.
Massive amounts of damage have already occurred. People, economies, and societies have already suffered enormously. He watched as others suffered attacks, lawsuits, and bullying and did nothing. As Edmund Burke said, “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” I think that the fact they did nothing eliminates them from being called good men. McCarter apologizes for Naomi Klein as a fellow Canadian, but where was he when she was appointed to Pope Francis’ committee on global warming helping him to draft the Laudate Si Encyclical? As he admits, he knew there were problems but rationalized they were political, and as a scientist, he could ignore them. He made a conscious decision to look the other way; now he wants absolution and even praises after a perfunctory mea culpa.
It is easy now as the tide is turning because Trump had the courage to cancel the Paris Climate Agreement. It is easy to jump on “the deception shouldn’t have happened” bandwagon. I can’t tell you how many people felt they were supporting me by telling me privately they agreed with me. Presumably, this absolved their conscience, but when the opportunity to speak arose at least 95 percent of them were nowhere to be seen. I used to try and understand that people did not want to lose their jobs or their income, but I don’t anymore because it is precisely this weakness that makes them vulnerable to bullies and exploiters. McCarter, by his own admission, hasn’t learned much. “So having had doubt about climate change being a political rather than scientific problem I am now a bit wiser.” Only a bit? If he had taken even a limited quiet look at what was going on, he would be a lot wiser. If he spoke out even minimally at the start, he would have experienced the push back and learned how political and nasty the attacks. He chose not to do that, and now he wants absolution for that failure. Sorry, it is too late unless he offers more than hand waving.
No, I cannot accept McCarter’s pathetic apology now it is easy. He admits in this article he knew all along but decided to do nothing. If I hear of him doing more than making an apology on friendly websites like WUWT, I will maybe temper my view. If he tries to get published in the NYT, I will have some sympathy. When I hear that his grandson was made to stand in the hallway outside his Grade six class every day for most of a month because he dared to ask questions about global warming that challenged what his teacher was saying and she knew I was his grandfather.
The only thing I can do here is quote Lutheran Pastor Martin Niemoller.
First, they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
Ogden Nash wrote,
There are people who are very resourceful
At being remorseful.
And who apparently feel that the best away to make friends
Is to do something terrible then make amends.
It was a child who pointed out that the emperor had no clothes because the adults were afraid to say anything. McCarter’s story indicates that this continues and will do so until people accept the social responsibility that comes with having the privilege to practice science or do anything in society. He should read about what is happening in his Canada as the government deliberately intimidates people and moves to make alternative climate views a crime. Let him publicly fight that and earn a modicum of credibility, until then his ‘coming out’ is too little too late. For those who think his actions are sufficient as a step in the right direction I will disagree.
Yes, it is a form of penance, the “voluntary self-punishment inflicted as an outward expression of repentance for having done wrong.” However, it is completely out of proportion to the extent of the damage his failure to act created. It indicates that he still doesn’t understand.
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Just a couple of points from this side of the herring pond…
Firstly – big respect to Dr Tim Ball and all power to him at his forthcoming (and totally unnecessary) legal battles.
Next – hot on the heels of the ‘diesel’ thing – the chattering middle classes (along with drinking skinny lattes as opposed to proper coffee) have been falling over themselves to install vastly overpriced ‘eco friendly’ wood burning stoves. Now the mayor of London has banned them within the M25 (London’s orbital motorway, for those who aren’t familiar) due to the soot particles which they produce – and which means there are a whole swathe of Islington and Notting Hill residents who are going to be suffering a chilly winter…
Finally – on the subject of political ‘bullying’ – we in the UK are being subjected to the most blatant example in our so-called ‘negotiations’ with the EU – and until our negotiating team pick up their paperwork, push back their chairs and declare: ‘No further discussions until we have a trade deal…’ – we are going to be the underdogs for the whole process.. Anyone would think we were trying to JOIN…!
Although this is a fair point made by Dr Tim Ball and points out the hypocrites, I much more would like to keep addressing the scientists that keep knowingly deceive the public at large than flaming the ‘defectors’ after they have changed their view and have the courage to speak their doubts on the CAGW hypothesis.
It has been just about ten years since I first started to see that something was not quite right with the story we were being fed about “global warming”, which, up to that point I had assumed was true. The irony is that I was simply looking for ammo to use against one “climate crank” in particular, who would write an occasional letter to the editor. I knew it would be an easy task to refute his claims and make him out to be a fool, but just needed the facts. But to my alarm and chagrin, the more I looked, the more I began to see that there really wasn’t much basis for their claims. Oh, there was plenty of arm-waving, and bashing and belittling of anyone who had doubts, which in itself made me look more deeply. What were they so worked up about? Why the nastiness? I began to see that it was emotionalism which they used and relied on, to convince and to bully people into Believing. I also knew that science wasn’t about Belief.
Over those ten years, I have watched the Skeptic/Dlimate Realist community grow, against all odds. The arsenal arrayed against us was enormous, and it was world-wide. The Climatist Industrial Complex had its tentacles everywhere; in government, in the MSM, in schools, and in most (formerly) respected institutions. It was like a Hydra; a many-headed fearsome beast. At the same time, the very tactics and lies the Climatists were telling were starting to backfire. They had to continually up the ante, and increase the smear tactics and outright attacks on those who dared threaten their cherished (and lucrative) Belief system, settling upon the D word as their ultimate method of attacking and smearing. They experienced big setbacks (like Climategate), which they appeared to recover from, but they only did on the surface. Then there was the “Pause”, and finally, the election of Trump, which was a huge blow against Climatism.
The Climate wars are certainly not over yet. The Climatist Industrial Complex is huge and entrenched. But it has been badly weakened, and is in the process of being destroyed from both within and without. It just takes time. The collapse of the corrupt IPCC will be its death knell, and that could take a few years – maybe five or so.
The first casualty of a war is the truth followed by propaganda, so it is that the first casualty of the climate “war” is again the truth followed by propaganda.
Censorship is alive and well in Canada. About 7 months ago I shared observations of dust layer’s in snow on lakes on isolated St Ignace Island in Lake Superior in the early 70’s on a Cbc Newsfeed. My opinion was that particulate and soot may be responsible for the premature Ice Cap Thawing. I was laughed off the Thread and told I should approach NASA with my unqualified thoughts as a layperson. A young Inuit man came to my defense posting an article documenting the Soot on the Greenland Ice Cap. I had never Googled for confirmation. The pictures were there. Likely hundreds of articles.
Ah’ the fear came upon the Co2 Cult who must have clicked back all the Greenland Black Carbon articles. Two weeks later there was NoT one article in the first 5 pages of Google. I had stated “chasing the Co2 tail was misguided”. Better capture of Particulate, Soot and Ash at point of emission is critical. Having built many Electrostatic Precipitators and repaired them I understand their effectiveness but question whether the Outages for replacing wires are frequent enough as their efficiency declines.
With my Outing of the seriousness of the overamped Co2 narrative Canada’s Minister of the Environment started calling the Carbon TAX a Pollution Tax the following week. Black Carbon and methane emissions are much more serious than the non visible gaseous Co2. Particulate Abatement is a cost for Industrial Emitters of which our Provincial Ministries of the Environment have reneged on Issuing Compliance Orders. Better to pickpocket everyone on a gaseous narrative that is to escalate to $50.oo per ton by 2020.
Exploitation of Captive Consumers is their game. Turning a Blind eye to Industrial Emitters is their shame.
Tim Ball, as usual, is 180 degrees from reality.
Trump’s election is certainly a triumph for climate change denial, but nature doesn’t care. Increasingly, neither does the rest of the world.
Nice of you to provide such solid proof as the worth of your opinion.
Go away, troll.
Nature shows climate reality, which is 180 degrees opposed to the blind faith of CACA believers.
Most of the people in the rest of the world live in countries which laugh at stupid Europeans willing to pay them guilt money, while they keep building more coal plants.
http://www.pbl.nl/en/sites/default/files/cms/afbeeldingen/009g_muc15_en.png
India is forecast to take off like China in coming decades.
India, alone, cancels any western savings. With China’s, worldwide CO2 emissions will increase. Given the results of the 21st Century, that should be no problem.
Actually, Doc, satellite, radiosonde and model reanalysis information belie CO2 dogma. Also see ARGO results.
I’ve had my tires slashed at work, and rocks thrown at windows. This was years ago.
I’m not a public figure nor made a public statement. Just made a statement at work. A call center. Nothing fancy
CAGW has been a dangerous cult for a long time. Speaking out gets more than a verbal diatribe.
Dr.Tim Ball. I still cringe when I see the ” Guest Opinion” label preceding your articals. I think it is time that the label be removed. I remember why it was applied. It still seems to me an attempt of useless appeasement.
While I understand the frustration of the situation, the fact is that three is no other way for the migration to climate skepticism to take place. People like Ball, Watts, Curry etc. will not get the formal recognition of being key in stopping an existential threat to western civilization, that will come with time.
I feel that thanks to the internet, this will go down in history and be a beacon to future people to be wary of how a consensus can be so anti-scientific.
To Sun Tzu, officers who resolved conflicts “with a sheathed sword” were the greatest war heroes. He also recognized that such individuals almost always toil thanklessly and in obscurity. Human nature being what it is, we reserve the medals and parades for the soldiers who win great battles and the generals who lead them. Not the peacemakers who prevented unnecessary battles, saving both lives and wealth. We praise the mess-cleaners and ignore the mess-preventers.
Tell that to pre-WWII Chamberlain and North Korea and Iran appeasers, Dred.
There are people who still admire Jimmy Carter on foreign policy.
Tom, those people must come from the same group as does CAGW believers.
And I assume the same people admire Obama’s foreign policies.
A peace that leaves the underlying problem unaddressed is not a resolved conflict.
Unfair comparison, 5 yard penalty, 2nd down.
Wonder how many Texans the Commie AP had to talk to to find these supposed converts to CACA:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/harvey-hit-county-gop-newly-confront-climate-040444881.html
CAGW activists will continue to use weather events to scare people, even when they know the truth that our climate has not changed in over 100 years. Minor warming from the Little Ice Age is beneficial.
Very possibly of interest here:
bit.ly/2ykrutx
I have a 12th grade education and I have been saying for 15 years that man made global warming was a hoax. It was so obvious that it was all about politics, money and power. Calling people deniers instead of providing evidence of your claims was another red flag. Oh, and one other thing, our local temp records show that we have the same average temp as 100 years ago. It was slightly cooler in the 1960s and 70s.
Crop yields are at record highs, deaths from storms are way down from the past. Where is the problem? It’s in Washington DC!
Why a lot of people still aren’t sure about global warming:
bit.ly/2ykrutx
That was a bit harsh.
This guy Dr Tim Ball is a moron, no doubt about it. When I read the words in the title ‘Collapse of Global Warming Deception’ I thought to myself – yep, here is another dodo living in cloud cuckoo land. This man has zero scientific credibility.
To get the real picture of global warming, read this my climate sceptic friends and stop reading trashy WUWT articles like Ball’s – because it is a load of ball. You have no idea what awaits us:
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20171016-the-great-thaw-of-americas-north-is-coming?ocid=ww.social.link.email
LOL! You, sir, are the moron. You do know that the BBC is recognised as being one of the prime-movers behind climate alarmism, don’t you? Anything they report regarding the climate HAS to be taken with a large pinch of salt.
Free, fair and unbiased my friend. You cannot question the validity of the work and results of the scientist in this article
From what I read here any media treating climate science as accepted science seems to become tagged as alarmist/biased.
Pray tell, where is the unbiased accurate media reporting on climate science?
I wish to respond here to that BBC article, since an opportunity to comment on that site does not appear to be available. As a civil engineer and having recently returned from a road trip to Inuvik, 68 degrees North Latitude, Northwest Territory Canada (compared to Fairbanks, just south of 65 North), I took a special interest in structural accommodation to the presence of permafrost in much of the infrastructure ‘north of 60’. My observations compel a jaundiced view of the BBC article. That report is simplistic and alarmist.
Permafrost is found in a patchwork as one proceeds north, subject to elevation, orientation, latitude, soil type and drainage, etc. Typically, the soil under and immediately adjacent to year-round rivers does not have permafrost.
Inhabitants of these lands in former days did not erect structures meant for year-round use, let alone roads. The native peoples moved to take advantage of the various food sources which were seasonally available. The absence of a record of housing damage due to permafrost melting and erosion during this era stems from the obvious fact that such permafrost change was inconsequential in the context of temporary/portable housing and any single season, not from the absence of any historians should that be argued.
When the first traders arrived and established trading posts, these locations became the first permanent settlements. The construction of buildings in this era proceeded without a good understanding of permafrost and the design deficiencies soon became evident. A parallel learning experience followed with the construction of roads. That trading era infrastructure was not intended to be seasonal, but the susceptibility of the permafrost area to melting due to heat loss from heated buildings or due to the removal of the insulating vegetated surface layer of the ground which is always done in the course of road building in the south, was not understood. Nowadays, in the course of building roads, the trees are cut down but the low brush and other surface vegetation is left and is deeply covered with road bed material. (Yes, there are trees, indeed forests, well north of the Arctic Circle and north of Inuvik on the Mackenzie delta.) The large depth of the road bed, plus the presence of the insulating vegetation and any peaty layer prevents penetration of summer heat down into the permafrost. Where culverts are installed, thick styrofoam-type insulation is used to insulate the ground around the culvert.
New buildings are typically built elevated above the ground, leaving several feet of air space to prevent the transfer of heat from the insulated underside of the building. Sewer and water services are installed in elevated ‘utilidors’ which are insulated for their own frost protection as well as to prevent heat loss to the ground. These practices are completely overlooked in the article.
The BBC article is full of speculation and conjecture and fails to acknowledge the progress of engineering knowledge and application. It speaks of the need, for example, of relocating the village of Kivalina within the next ten years, citing a cost estimate of $USD200 Million for 300 people, claiming this is due to climate change. They compound this misleading absence of acknowledgment of improved construction methods with the rather obvious observation that a second relocation (of the same community) 30 years hence due to continued permafrost melt would not likely be viewed favourably by the federal government, the presumed funding entity. Why does the writer presume that old failed methods would be used once again?
Researchers are quoted as saying that “half of the state’s and 90% of interior Alaska’s permafrost will thaw if there’s a global average rise of 2C in air temperature“ and “it’s pretty certain by 2100 a significant fraction of the permafrost in the upper five metres would thaw out and with it all the organic matter that is currently frozen in the permafrost” and “Theoretically if this carbon is released to the atmosphere, the amount of CO2 will be three times more than what is in there [in the atmosphere] now” setting off what the author says is a “feedback loop as it amplifies the warming due to the burning of fossil fuels”. These statements promote a view that these areas of permafrost, upon thawing, will release prodigious amounts of carbon dioxide and methane as the organic materials are now susceptible to microbial decomposition. This view is completely ignorant of the actual life cycle of areas where permafrost has already begun to retreat. The presence of permafrost inhibits significant growth. Where trees grow on permafrost we see two major categories of symptoms. One is familiarly called “drunken forest” since once the trees reach a modest size there root systems, being blocked from penetrating the permafrost, are insufficient to keep the trees upright and they assume all angles between vertical and horizontal. Where the active layer is even shallower, the tree size is even more restricted and the trees constitute a form known as Krummholtz, a term that is also applied to stunted, windswept trees in alpine and subalpine areas.
When permafrost melts, it is a process of retreat of the semipermanent ice front from the active zone. The active layer becomes deeper and allows for greater penetration of roots. Consequently you get a forest of taller and thicker trees which actually sequesters more CO2 and which slows down further thawing due to greater interception of sunlight, greater deposition of needles and other organic detritus, generally increasing the thickness of the insulating active zone.
One also has to consider what is going on with peat bogs. These persist in temperate and even some tropical climates. The BBC permafrost alarmists would have you concerned that northern humus will decompose and multiply the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere threefold but ignore the fact that the oxygen deficient waterlogged environment of peat deposits is preventing that very scenario from taking place in decidedly non-permafrost locations.
Another example of the lack of even common sense in the article is the inference “bit by bit, America’s frozen north is thawing and what happens next is unknown. What’s certain is the great thaw will forever change a once-familiar landscape – and likely a planet and its inhabitants too.” This statement follows the writer’s report that the researcher “notes that at 50cm depth, the temperature of the soil is -0.04C (31.9F). At one metre it’s -0.23C (31.5F). The last time he checked the data was in March, where at one metre, the soil temperature measured -1.1C (30F). “ The writer is seemingly unaware that one would expect to observe some warming at one meter depth after four months of seasonally warmer temperatures, or is intentionally trying to leave an impression that warming (global?) is happening.
Example of a ground temperature profile, Herschel Island permafrost, from:
https://carleton.ca/geography/wp-content/uploads/Herschel.pdf
ivankinsman October 17, 2017 at 2:01 am
The BBC specialise in hunting down any story that affirms their politicised bias about Global Warming. In such stories there are always a plethora of “ifs”, “buts”, and ” coulds” etc. – in other words: speculation. Their position is entirely one-sided. To them the science is settled. So what would you expect them to report?
Like all the other scare stories which have been promoted, time has proven them worthless. Mother nature makes fools of them. We have been through an El Nino but are now coming out the other side. Give it another few months, maybe a year, and see what happens then.
I believe that CAGW will be proven or disproved by the mid-2020’s, Luc.
You’re probably right, Dave. I just hope I’m still about when that happens.
Having waited years already for the final denouement, I would feel cheated if I missed it. Oh yes, I know they will find something else to take its place to scare the public with, but at least I wouldn’t have to suffer a rush of blood every time ‘climate change’ is blamed for something or other on the news.
I believe CAGW would have been disproven by now if we had not had the Pacific Blob and an aborted El Nino in 2014 and the Super El Nino in 2015-16. We’ll see.
Griff October 17, 2017 at 4:35 am
Griffy! I don’t often have the honour of being the only one to reply to your um, fatuous (?), comments, as you are nearly always deluged with rebuttals from other commenters, lol. But because all the others have moved on from this post, I’m not going to shirk my duty and allow you to have the last word. I know! What a ‘spoil-sport’ I am!
To answer your question, my first thought is that you won’t find what you’re looking for in the MSM (main stream media) – with few exceptions. As I’m sure you’re aware, the question of Climate Change aka Global Warming or AGW has become purely political – any science (such as there might have been) being long ditched. And so we are left with right wing and left wing politics. And there you have the bias. Left wing news promotes AGW, right wing generally supports the opposing, or sceptical, position. But I’m sure you know all this already. But I feel there is nearly always some validity in spelling things out – if only for casual readers who do not know these things.
And so, we are left with the internet. You shouldn’t need reminding that the very site upon which you seem to have chosen to make your stand is, in fact, one of, if not THE, most widely-read and visited science web site in the universe, having won many awards ver the years
.
I wonder whether it has escaped your notice that your comments are allowed to stand (as an avowed Warmist) when other Warmist sites ban commenters coming from the sceptical viewpoint? I think that says a great deal about the fairness and yes, the unbiased, reporting of discussions regarding the climate that is on offer here on Watts Up With That, don’t you?
Dr Tim, I have to congratulate you on your strength and endurance. Lesser men would have wilted under such pressure.
I have several of your books and very much enjoyed your most recent presentations in Australia with Tony Heller and Malcolm Roberts (the smartest politician in Australia).
Please keep up the good work,
best regards from Oz
I fear that Dr. Ball is overly optimistic. I do not at all see the global warming ship sinking – at least not yet. There is a high probability that Trumps’s actions will be reversed as soon as he leaves office, if not sooner.
Tim, I got your back! I didn’t need any time once I began to examine the data. And yes, I am a REAL and TRUE scientist, PCness be damned!