From NHC, which has had connectivity problems related to the storm overnight:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later today, and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some additional
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected
to be a powerful category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of
Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 70 mph (113
km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida, and a gust to 60 mph
occurred at Melbourne, Florida.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).
Latest satellite and radar imagery, plus spaghetti forecast plots.
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Buoy 41009 Canaveral that looks to be in the direct path 20nm offshore is only seeing 65mph sustained and gusts of 78mph.
This has to be the worst PR the NHC could have ever pulled…and the news media and all were promoting it
It was supposed to be the worst Cat 4 in history right now…..and they have already downgraded to a 3
…no land wind speed measurement has come even close
People are walking their dogs on the beach behind the news reporters
We are all glad and relieved……but it’s going to be even harder to get people to leave next time
Agreed. People will claim it was not big deal and the next few times it may be the same. But as people of Homestead and Punta Gorda both found out, it only takes once to destroy your life.
Well, the reporting was Cat 5 bluster.
Thanksgiving weekend of 2011, I was living with my family in Fairplay, CO. A storm rolled over the mountain tops that Friday and by that night I was very concerned that the winds would blow our house down. Power went out Saturday night after more than 24 hours of the highest strength sustained winds I have ever experienced…and I grew up in Tampa. All the while being 40 below outside…real temp.
After a few days, we felt comfortable driving down to town where we learned that the anemometer broke at 125mph.
No news reports…..no fan fair….this went completely unreported on any weather stations or other news outlets.
Now, 50mph winds hit East coast of FLA and the world goes agog!
Every time a low sits on the front range (east of the mtns), and a high to the west, the pressures try to equalize and we get Chinooks in Colorado. 100mph winds just aren’t that unusual here, nor Wyoming. Probably Boulder, CO to Laramie, WY has the worst wind I’ve seen in the past 46 years here.
http://wermenh.com/images/cat-hurricane-cat.jpg
Very funny. Thanks.
Mrs. H.R. and I love it, Ric! Thank you.
(One of our cats looks almost exactly like Cat 1 and Cat 2.)
Much appreciated!
Auto [and Mrs. Auto!]
I think it would have been foolish to not evacuate along the east coast of Florida.
Remember, with Sandy there were a number of weather related situations that made it worse than one would expect from what was not officially a hurricane when it made landfall.
So, too, at least so far, have the situations such as a slight path shift east and the change in the eye-wall lessened the projected effects of Matthew.
As Ripley said, “Lucky, lucky, lucky”.
Keep the tight eye-wall like it was over Haiti and move it 60 miles west, and no body would be laughing right now.
Dont You have concrete buildings with more than one level above ground?
Is it more safe sitting in a car stacked in traffic jam?
“Is it more safe sitting in a car stacked in traffic jam?”
Evacuation certainly is not risk free. The aftermath of Houston’s attempted evacuation ahead of Rita in 2005 was a sight to behold, and approximately 100 people died. Had the hurricane actually hit as predicted, it would have been devastating to the people trapped in their cars.
Yep, it is always the Monday Morning Quarterbacks that squawk the loudest.
not its the Saturday afternoon doomsdayers that squawk the loudest
Where do you live Kaiser?
Perhaps you should ask those who lost everything with Sandy.
Agreed.
Remember, Sandy wasn’t technically a hurricane when it made landfall. What if it had been a Cat 3?
this QB was saying pure HYPE back on tuesday……….
The consensus forecast path never at any point made landfall in a Florida. Sure, there were individual runs of individual models that made landfall, however the consensus forecast track never did. Additonally, this is not a large cyclone. Combine this with the fact that the storm trended as far west as I can remember for a tropical cyclone in recent memory and the strongest winds, rains, and hurricane effects being in the northeast side. This storm was all hype!
“The consensus” made me LOL. The earlier projected “cone of uncertainty” showed a more westerly and a more easterly possible track, with the westerly track showing landfall.
Heck, as I write this, we can’t be certain it won’t jog west and make landfall yet.
As I mentioned, factors in play have lessened the impact so far, just as Sandy’s influences made it worse than might have been expected.
Here’s Robin, the Early Bird, on NOAA slanting the narrative:
invisibleserfscollar.com/if-reality-is-ignored-or-disregarded-when-do-we-become-a-state-against-its-people
I hope I got that url correct.
====================
Nope, that’s a 2012 article, re number fudging.
The idea, with virtual reality digital curricula, is to trick the human mind, with visual cues, to see things that are not true, so the mind feels emotionally compelled to act to change the world as it is.
Granted, an old article. She’s the Early Bird.
=================
That last post was from Robin, mildly edited. I’ll go check the url again.
===============
Yep, it’s the correct url. Read it and weep. Weep windblown buckets.
===========================
At 8:58 the NHC has this posted re: Mathew.
8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 7
Location: 28.9°N 80.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
Doesn’t seem to agree with ground sightings nor buoys.
Anthony Watts:
I hope you will do a wrap up of the storm after it is all over. I am especially interested in comparing the ground station reports vs. the reports that NOAA handed out to the public.
I want to know if the public got the truth in the run up to the storm.
~ Mark
wind map
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-81.58,31.07,3000/loc=-82.784,33.143
I see 62knots as the highest gust, what’s that about 37mph? A little shy of 120 mph sustained….
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4
One Knot/hr = 1.151 miles/hr, so 62kn/hr = about 71 mph. Nothing to sneeze at, but not hurricane force
Hurricane force is 74 mph. Close enough for government work.
To convert knots to MPH, multiply by about 1.15, so 62 knots is a little over 70 mph.
Tony
Knots = mphX1.15
I can see I was treating knots as Kph, not enough coffee yet. What I was noting was the highest gusts, not sustained winds, so not even close to hurricane.
62 knots is 73 mph… maybe you had key dyslexia… better than key west right now
The news has always tended to hype these storms, but the national hurricane center has always been a voice of reason. I dont know what has gotten into them lately but
I will still give them the benifit of the doubt.
Yeah, like the IRS, the DoJ, and the FBI. See Karl and the NOAA.
================
Noted the attempts at diversion. Definition of hurricane is wind speed at “ground” level, simple.
No, wind speed measured at 10 meters elevation, avg for 1 minute.
You did notice the apostrophes, I could not remember the exact height but its “ground” level not 20,000 feet.
Agree. Misinterpreted your point.
Just listened to Fla Gov Rick Scott’s report on assments so far and only power outages seem to be an issue – no road or property issues, traffic issues, etc. Power already restored to large portions of several counties. This is unwelcomed news for the Weather Channel, which immediately came back with “Doomsday Jim” Cantore, who was standing by a road, no rain, traffic passing along the street
normally, none of which had any effect on the threats Cantore made about imminent disastrous
condition. If they occur, Charlestion wil be the recipient, as they flooded badly from Hugo with storm surges of 6.8 feet. Mathew promises larger storm surges, however their estimates of wind speed have dropped significantly from 100MPH toless than 90 MPH at Charlerston. The Weather Channel (which they inform us, only operates for our benefit and safety) is hoping for photogenic flooding conditions.The Weather Channel is proudly trumpeting “One death” in Fla fro Matthew (doubtful). Wonder how that compares to the average traffic fatalities during normal times over the same period? Ditto for robberies and muggings. And for drownings by seashore visitors? The Weather Channel will never acknowledge any possible benefits of this “deadly monster.”
The Weather Channel is truly awful!! I have deleted them from my phone and iPad and block them and any of their products from my PC browser (so they can’t pop up unexpectedly on Facebook for example). I urge everyone to do the same. The more “hits” they get, the more money they make. Since I “cut the cord” from cable recently, I thankfully don’t have to pay Comcast directly for their drivel (and Jim Cantore’s travel budget).
I agree with you about the Weather Channel. Way too much time on their hands, way too many people to use and way too much money to spend. Paul Dellegatto out of Fox 13 in Tampa is my choice for hurricane coverage.
It is reported that the death was an old lady who suffered a heart attack.
“The Weather Channel is proudly trumpeting “One death” in Fla fro Matthew”
It was a cardiac arrest. Tragedy of course but I’m not sure how that is related in any way to Matthew.
I recall hearing in the 1990’s when one of the earthquakes near L.A. actually had fewer deaths that day as there were no drive-by shootings during the earthquake! Not sure if that was an urban myth or not.
Summary of measured wind speeds, last 8 hours, 150 mile radius around Cape Canaveral.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=28.4n&lon1=80.5w&uom=E&dist=150&ot=A&time=8
On my PC, copied and pasted the page into a file, then opened it with Excel, and sorted by Column I, descending. Sort put the highest windspeeds on top, after the ‘null entries’.
Yeah, Steve, don’t tantalize us? What were the go**am values?
Rich.
Is what’s descending from the NW causing Matthew some shear and possible easterly displacement?
What I find really disturbing is you can almost feel the alarmist crowd willing this storm to do some damage and cost lives, so they can say “we told you so”.
Precautionary Approach
Wiki’ Excerpt: The principle is used by policy makers to justify discretionary decisions in situations where there is the possibility of harm from making a certain decision (e.g. taking a particular course of action) when extensive scientific knowledge on the matter is lacking. The principle implies that there is a social responsibility to protect the public from exposure to harm, when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk. These protections can be relaxed only if further scientific findings emerge that provide sound evidence that no harm will result.
There’s no questioning Matthew’s potential for landfall nor the harm it could have caused yet the tendency to discard the quantifiable is disturbing.
It’s obvious the media outlets believe a calm and informed approach is passé.
Playing with the approach and unintended consequences:
So, for the 15-20% of West Palm Beach residents who decided to ride the storm out at home with a stockpile of “Happy Meals”, congrats – you managed to miss a speeding bullet.
Was it logical? No, yet With the “Super Bowl of Doom” from the media, what Trusted source did they have to draw from to make an intelligent decision.
Trust is key, without Trusted Science and hero practioners –
The NW part of the eye wall passed directly over the Settlement Point, Bahamas station last night. While the NHC was saying that winds were at 140 mph, the station reported sustained winds of only 85 mph
Abundance of caution -yeah I get that, and there is a real hurricane out there, but somehow all the fooforah is so similar in detail to the stuff we get daily from the CAGW crowd about weather in 2100. The models, the hype, the dire ‘worst ever’ end of times type narrative….With weather and climate these days, it’s a one story fits all situation.
There is some data of an unintended kind that comes out of this, however. I’ve always said that the metrics projected by such as the IPCC can be discounted substantially (by half or more as calculated by Monckton) simply because it is not in their nature as alarmists or in their their standing orders to underestimate any dire situation. The narrative of hurricane specialists with the governments used to be that global warming did not appear to be a factor in hurricane frequency or strengths. This is no longer tolerated by their bosses. They have been charged with finding more alarmist results = report wind speed by aircraft and dont dwell on ground speeds. They therefore added, perhaps, 30% to w. speeds (IPCC isnt constrained by a real event so they can triple and more).
Regarding the mechanics of the hurricane, as an engineer, it seems to me that a hurricane moving along the shore or at a shallow angle has asymmetric conditions re water depth and pulls itself back toward deeper water thereby tending to hold itself away from landfall. One at a more acute angle could easily make landfall. For this reason, I think all modeled tracks that unbendingly crossed into Florida and north of Florida as if behavior on land and sea were identical, should be summarily disregarded. I wonder if the actual south Atlantic coast hasnt been shaped by hurricanes of this kind. I am not a meteorologist so I suspect I will hear some flack about this.
I have thought about that shaping idea, too, especially when considering lower sea levels, when the contenental shelf was more exposed to erosion.
I wonder if the actual south Atlantic coast hasnt been shaped by hurricanes of this kind. I am not a meteorologist so I suspect I will hear some flack about this.
Yes, the great curve up thru the carolinas is interesting.
I don’t know if they got knocked out or NBDC took them offline but Trident Pier station at Canaveral peaked at 45knots/50mph. The offshore buoy had recorded higher but is now offline. I’ll go out on a limb and say the space port is OK.
Here is the Tides graph of that station with about 44 knot sustained winds at around noon.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=sauf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT
St. Augustine had 56 knot winds at NDBC buoy SAUF1 around 1pm. That’s below Category 1.
SAUF1 is actually a C-MAN tower station, not a buoy. The anemometer height is over 16 meters above the surface.