Still no landfall for #Matthew, remains Cat 3 storm

So far, Florida has been lucky. While the storm remains dangerous, it seems it has continued just off the coast, and has begun the first steps towards a northeast turn. NHC’s 9AM EST reports had this to say:

...EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HUGGING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 80.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.86 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ 
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 80.3 West. 
Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will be moving near 
or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the coasts of Georgia and 
South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the 
next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to be a category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of Florida today. 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend 
outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Cape Canaveral recently reported and wind gust to 97 mph (155 km/h), and 
Daytona Beach reported a wind gust of 67 mph (110 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 944 mb (27.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida during the next several hours, and spread northward within the warning area through today. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the Florida west coast today. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Saturday with tropical storm conditions expected later today. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Carolinas tonight and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Water levels in the northwestern Bahamas should continue to subside during the day. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the east-central Florida coast today. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071156.shtml

Dr. Ryan Maue notes this morning:

Added:

Here are the latest satellite, radar, and model plots for the 12Z run. The models mostly indicate a turn to the northeast, and a loop.

matthew-10-7-16-9amest-plots matthew-10-7-16-9amest-radar matthew-10-7-16-9amest

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157 thoughts on “Still no landfall for #Matthew, remains Cat 3 storm

  1. Fine reporting, Anthony — thank you for all your excellent and nicely detailed posts on Matthew the Hurricane.

    One thing, though: “LUCKY”!!!! Anthony. I — have — been (and others, too) — praying for DAYS for just this very thing!

    “Blessed” would be the term I would use. (Okay? sorry if that came off as a bit to shrill — trying to shout over the high winds, :) )

    • I don’t see why there have been 15 (yes, 15) articles on this website about the hurricane. This website has contributed to the hyperbole and scare. I see no justification for it. I cannot recall (and I’ve been here a few years now) ANY subject getting 15 (so far) articles! How Anthony runs it is up to him, of course, but frankly, I’m astonished that he, through this site, has contributed to the complete nonsense about a hurricane. It warranted one article, if that. Or are we to see 15 articles about every hurricane now?

      • If you’re living in the way of Matthew, you’re going to take it seriously and you’re going to want updates. Getting updates from a favorite blog is even better. I’m not in the US so this story does not touch me personally, but I don’t object to this level of coverage. There were several stories on South Australia going full blackout mode on this site (which I was thankful for) and even that wasn’t enough. I scrambled all over the Net looking for more info. It was, and continues to be, important to me, just as Matthew is important to all those in its path.

        If this isn’t your thing, don’t read the articles. Do something else for awhile, then come back and you’ll find other stories available. This site carries quite a few stories every day, so it’s never a long wait.

      • Nothing personal, but there is really no such thing as “hyperbole and scare” when it comes to a Cat 3-Cat 5 hurricane.

        In fact, a much greater problem is complacency. That was one of the major issues with Katrina in 2005. Historically, New Orleans has received a number of hurricanes. Until 2005, they had gone they had basically a 40 year drought in major hurricanes. Most of the new arrivals had no idea what a hurricane really meant and complacency led to poor maintenance on pumps and the levies.

      • Note that in the past there would be a stickied topic with rolling updates. Since that isn’t the format any more, separate update threads are created instead. Just a style difference, but raw output of coverage here is really no different now than for any of the other US bound hurricanes that have occurred (including Sandy).

      • Well, thank you, bazzer1959!

        Your snide remark provided me with a GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO PROMOTE ANTHONY’S WEATHERSHOP!

        Ta da!

        (Clicking on the humble little icon in the right margin of WUWT, you will enter the wonderful store where YOU, too, can be a (virtual) storm chaser! (and an amateur meteorologist, too!) here: http://www.weathershop.com/ )

        There are MANY high quality, useful (and also FUN) products to see there.

        And the expert knowledge of the friendly sales support staff is excellent.

        Check it out!

        #(:))

        (This ad was brought to you by: Loyal Fan Productions)

      • I see no problem: it is Anthony’s site, Anthony is a Weather Guy, and a hurricane is weather.

        Them that ain’t interested don’t got to read it.

        WETT (What’s Easier Than That)

        /grin

      • Dear Marcus,

        Thank you. Just FYI, I have never gone away angry (not yet, heh). When I twice decided to leave WUWT, I was sobbing.

        Glad to see YOU are still here — in spite of a hurdle to jump over — way to persevere!

        Janice

        P.S. Have you met “her” yet? (I know, I know, you will not answer and that is OKAY!) Praying!

      • ..Dear Janice..I don’t answer that because sometimes it takes…24 hours for my answer to go through !! …I am on moderation for life i guess…LOL…The answer is NO…

      • Hi, Marcus — thanks for answering! Rats. I will keep praying (because — I — want — to)!

        Oh, boy, I sure wish you could get off moderation. Here is something to try. DO keep on being your wonderful enthusiastic self, HOWEVER (just to get off moderation — not because what you say is not true or important): no one-liner zingers about politics (or ignoramus AGWers, either). Yes, others do this, but, I guess you do it more frequently? I don’t know how else to get you out of moderation.

        My vote is: PLEASE, TAKE MARCUS OUT OF MODERATION and let him prove he can stop the “one-liner zinger” thing.

      • Seeing as it is a major weather event, and somewhat unusual in more than one aspect, extensive coverage here is entirely appropriate. If you aren’t interested, don’t read it. While my interest is purely academic, I find WUWT the most useful source of information, by a wide margin. I’m sure that the folks here for whom the interest is, of necessity, much more urgent appreciate the trustworthy summary and analysis.

      • 16 articles now…and counting. Can anyone of you above point me to a SINGLE individual subject that has warranted 16 articles since this website began? No, of course you can’t. And that alone proves my valid point. This hurricane has been blown up out of all proportion to its news value. That’s what happens nowadays, we all know that. Weather events that years ago wouldn’t have been given much coverage now get blasted out as ‘worse evah’. But what’s really astonishing is that this website is complicit in that! No weather event warrants 16 articles…and counting…on this website. It just doesn’t. If anyone thinks it does, I refer you back to my original point above.

        Janice, I think you need to buy a dictionary. ‘Snide’!?! Simply incorrect choice of word, and not for the first time, either.

      • It is called “weather pornography”, like watching NASCAR for the crash and ice hockey for the fights. Hype the hurricanes, hype every thunderstorm , every snow storm–everything is “the worst ever!”. You can’t have a reasonable discussion of anything anymore.

      • bazzer: Your ludicrously discourteous remarks to the host of his own website sound like this:

        Bazzer (upon walking through the hall and living room of Anthony Watts’ home): Why all these pictures of ships on the walls? I didn’t come here to look at paintings of ships! I came to this gallery to see paintings of apples and oranges! Fifteen…. no, make that sixteen paintings of SHIPS!

        Other Guest: This is Anthony’s home, Bazzer.

        Bazzer: Well, if he is going to invite people into his home, he should do what THEY want him to do!

      • Yes, Thomas, you are of course correct. I just didn’t expect to see such hyberbole on here, of all places. This would usually be the place to criticise other websites for doing exactly what has been done here! I really do find it astonishing; it’s just unwarranted, too much.

      • Bazzer1959, if it really should have been a Hurricane 4 or 5 and would have made a devastating landfall you would not have bothered about the number of articles. Besides that, as you could have read, a lot of WUWT readers were involved in the possible danger. And if you didn’t have read, you did the wise thing: don’t read what you don’t want to read. In any case: no reason to complain afterwards.

      • Wim, you are not understanding. What annoys me are the scare stories over ordinary weather events. So what I am saying (and I shouldn’t have to explain it again) is that this website should not be contributing to that. It’s usually one that would criticise such behaviour.

      • Bazzer, yes and no. I agree that as we talk about ‘climate’, we shouldn’t talk about weather. And if we still do talk about weather, we must make clear that it is not about climate, just because climate is the 30 year’s average of weather – and nothing else. The alarmists’ trick of mixing up a local weather event with ‘dangerous global climate change’ is one we should avoid.

        But in this case there was also an alarmist’ prediction (‘we are going to have more dangerous major hurricanes now when the climate changes’) that was in the picture. It was one of the controllable things. That, and the unpredictable behaviour of this ‘weather’ event made it interesting from the climate point of view. A lot of conclusions regarding ‘climate change’ could be made. Like: ‘when you’ve got a problem in modelling the future behaviour of the hurricane for the next five days, how reliable are your models in predicting the average weather (climate) over 30, 50 of 100 years’?

        I understand your point and partly agree. I don’t like it either when we are talking on this website about climate and people start commenting (seriously) with ‘this weather’ and ‘that weather’. But I think that our critics should be in the first place to alarmists and media who really don’t know – or don’t seem to know – the difference between ‘[local] weather events’ and ‘[global] climate’. Anthony is the first to know the difference, so we should ‘shoot’ at other media and at politicians who don’t know.

  2. only the NW quadrant has Cat 3 winds. No part of FL has had any winds over TS strength so far

  3. Thanks again for the updates. It seems the forecasts of there being no landfall on the E Coast, supported by a long history of not doing so after 1 October is the right call. Most interesting. One thinks of the influence of colder land temps being a factor. Though little has been said about the other storm to the east, it ‘looks’ like a good reason to expect somehow they should be drawn together.

    The crowing about climate change is just classic! Future historians will wonder where sanity and common sense were parked during this era. For example how do we know that the AG CO2 was not ‘keeping the hurricanes offshore’ because they simply refuse to hit land >Cat 3 any more. OMG a disrupted climate! Where are our hurricanes! We demand our hurricanes back! We is us for we have emitted!

    You should hear the nonsense on the radio in Canada this week about the silly carbon tax being imposed by fiat. Future historians will surely investigate how the CBC was taken over by the Green Blob and turned into a marketing channel for their pointless products. If you can’t make hay while the sun shines you might as well make money.

      • Here’s tae us!
        Wha’s like us?
        Dam’ few
        An’ they’re a’ deid!

        ABC News just stated:

        “No other Atlantic storm on record has packed such powerful winds for such a prolonged period as Hurricane Matthew.”

        There you have it, another predicted AGW “superstorm”.

    • But hurricanes in October are unusual, right?

      Are you sure warming isn’t involved in creating one this late in the season?

      • ..From Wikipedia…
        ” In the Northern Atlantic Ocean, a distinct hurricane season occurs from June 1 to November 30, ”

        D’oh !

      • http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/.

        Quote from National Hurricane Center:

        “The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The Eastern Pacific basin extends to 140°W….”

      • Atlantic Hurricanes in October are very common. September has had the most, August next with October a close third. Most years hurricane season does not end until December. ACE data over the last ten years show no increase globally. And 4,000 days between US landfall is another indication of no increase. Could happen in the future but no evidence yet.

      • But hurricanes in October are unusual, right?

        Are you sure warming isn’t involved in creating one this late in the season?

        I’m sure the past 4000 days have been unusual. I’m also sure when a major category Atlantic hurricane later will hit the continental US, some people will not point out that there was an unexpected hurricane drought before it.

        The problem with hurricane alarmism is that there is very little data to support it. Professor Curry, who wasn’t any sceptic ten years ago, has realized she was way too alarmist. Join the skeptical lot.

        And this is not to claim hurricanes are not dangerous beasts. They are. Just don’t think you could control them by doing CO2 Ave Marias.

      • “But hurricanes in October are unusual, right?”

        Two minutes of research would show you that for Florida, October is second behind September, with August in third. No, not unusual at all.

      • He he,still can’t let go of the climate change paradigm,Griff.

        You were quickly answered with very easy to find facts, that Hurricanes in October are fairly common. Suggest that you drop the set in stone alarmist thought,go with the data instead of propaganda.

        You have been repeatedly exposed as being awfully small minded.

      • OK Griff, show me that Hurricane Matthew would not have happened without human activity. Explain the physics in detail, back it up with validated historical data, and SHOW YOUR MATH.

      • Eustace, I asked Griff a similar question in an earlier post. Doubt you’ll receive an answer. I haven’t.

      • Doug October 7, 2016 at 9:23 am
        “But hurricanes in October are unusual, right?”

        Two minutes of research would show you that for Florida, October is second behind September, with August in third. No, not unusual at all.

        But they mostly come from the Gulf coast not the Atlantic side. See Klotzbach article earlier this week.

      • What? Hazel was one of the worst in the 50’s late season and it was during a warm spell that
        was was warmer than the current era..
        I call Bravo Sierra..

      • There is actually a pronounced shoulder in the frequency graph in October.
        The season ramps up gradually and first and more quickly in August, and peaks in early September.

      • But hurricanes in October are unusual, right?

        On Sunday, October 1st, 1893 one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States occurred in Louisiana. The Great Storm, or the Hurricane of 1893 destroyed the tiny island of Cheniere Caminada, killing about half of its inhabitants. According to church records, the population of Cheniere at the time of the storm was 1471, and of that number, 779 were killed. In all, the storm would claim over 2000 lives.

        http://www.loyno.edu/~kchopin/new/culture/cheniere.html

    • “nonsense on radio in Canada”… At least the Ontario government, after creating the highest electricity prices in the world, and subsequently losing a bi-election in a Liberal stronghold, finally abandoned all future wind farms. Maybe somebody better warn Trudeau of the similar backlash he will likely receive once he imposes an economy killing “carbon tax”.

      • …the Ontario government, after creating the highest electricity prices in the world…

        Sorry, except some remote islands, Germany seems to be the record holder. Current average price per kwh is 0.2869 €. That’s 0.425 CAN $.

      • Ontario doesn’t even have the highest rates in Canada. Peak time rate in Ontario is 18 cents per kilowatt hour, while peak time rate in Nova Scotia is 19.004 cents per kilowatt hour. That is because in the last few years we’ve moved from nearly 100% coal generation to around 50% coal generation. Because of this, we’ve also met our 30% below 2005 emissions level goal and should be able to opt out of the carbon tax.

      • Once carbon taxes are established in Canada, those pushing carbon taxes hope to accomplish the same thing in the U.S. Bring carbon taxes into the U.S. via the “back-door”. Likely state by state/sub-national level. Too difficult to do this on the federal level. Congress members like to keep their jobs.

    • +many Crispin. Your quote: “If you can’t make hay while the sun shines you might as well make money.” See PS below.

      I listen to CBC almost every day to try to understand what happens to critical thinking when people are constantly bombarded by propaganda and SJW’s. Sadly, many of our Television news stations now spout similar material with clear bias. Most have become “talking heads”. “1984” was simply dated 40 years too early.

      “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”

      PS Hard to make hay with snow on the ground.

      http://globalnews.ca/news/2986844/saskatoon-and-area-remains-under-snowfall-warning/

      Gratuitous comment on WEATHER:

      October 6, 2016 – the high temperature in Calgary was plus 5C, the low was minus 2 C. The “normal” high is plus 14C. The record high was + 29C in 1889, the record low was -16C in 1900.

      That’s Calgary weather, not climate. Not much has changed in 150 years. Well, ok, airplanes, space travel, digital technology, automobiles – but weather? Not so much.

  4. Will this mean that the record duration without a US hurricane landfall continues? Is this regarded as a hit or a miss?

      • No, it depends.

        When the alarmists try to show in 2030, that the number of major hurricane hits has been increasing at an accelerating pace, Matthew will not be a hit since the long drought is needed for their exponential fit.

        James Hansen, 89, says he foresaw this and the hurricanes could destabilize continental ice, causing rapid sea level rise and inundating Miami.

      • Technically a “miss” unless/until the eye actually makes landfall.

        As Tom (also) in Florida points out though, the AGWers ignore the facts, so they’ll be running around yelling “Climate Change! Climate Change!” in their best Henny Penny voices.

    • I think the hit-or-miss question depends upon how you fare from the storm. If you get by with some rain and a power outage of a few hours, you could say it was a miss. If your house blows away and your car floats into the Atlantic, that’s a hit. The question reminds me of the deathless line Spenser delivers in one of the many Robert B. Parker mysteries: Seeing Washington, D.C. totally immobilized by four inches of snow, he notes, “In Boston, we would have said the storm missed us.”

    • Dr. Spencer calls it a near-miss, counter still running at 4,001 days. If it makes landfall later tonight or Saturday its strength will be Cat 2 or less. Still strong and dangerous, but not a major hurricane landfall the Church of CAGW believers hoped for.

      • There has been exactly ZERO substained hurricane force winds at the surface in the US. Let alone any cat 3. This is a big miss, period.

      • 35 miles is “close enough for climate science” I suppose?

        Consider two linear econometrists deer hunting, one firing the rifle and the other spotting through binoculars:

        Bang!
        Spotter: “Wide left by ten feet!”
        Bang!
        Spotter: “Wide right by ten feet. Got it!”

    • CNN has just reported that the eyewall came ashore, but didn’t say when or where. That would be a hit, I suspect. Also, they have reported one fatality so far in Florida – an elderly woman suffered a heart attack and the emergency services weren’t going out in the storm. 271 reported dead in Haiti, and 5 in St Vincent and The Grenadines.
      Not sure that I agree that Florida has been lucky – maybe relatively lucky. 600K people reported without power, and many buildings damaged. But the storm surge can still do a lot of damage in North Florida later today.
      And CNN is reporting that onshore winds have been measured at 100 mph – yet all the charts I’ve seen haven’t shown anything over ~65 mph.

    • Hit or miss, Horseshoes and hand Grenades. We can argue the exact definition in the comfort of our computer chairs and trivialize with the greatest of certainty but only the people who were impacted by the the hurricane can make a truthful evaluation. If our acquaintances on the Florida coast state it was a hit or a miss I myself will defer to them. It is their lives and well being that has been effected.
      I have gone through more hurricanes then I can count while growing up in Conn. Now some can say in retrospect that they were merely “tropical storms” or not direct hits, but I be remembering in 1977 standing inside a shed that had been blown over, lashing it with a stout rope and it suddenly being three to four feet off the ground and my brother screaming at me to jump. He had to reach in and drag me out. The wind would blow my hundred pound self back in. Well we made it back into the house which held up fine as always. The shed, it blew off to join Toto and Dorothy. Tropical storm you say? The he!! I say!

      michael :-) :-D

      • Hit or miss definition.

        In my opinion, a hit requires the eyewall to pass over the coast and for sustained winds there to be measured at 111mph or more, 10m above ground. End of.

        Matthew now has a snowflake’s chance in the eye of a hurricane of being a hit. In fact, I doubt that even 74mph (minimum hurricane winds, as opposed to 111mph for a Major) will be measured. But I’m more prepared to be wrong on that one. I look forward to the “post mortem” proving it one way or the other.

        “Proving”, hmmm. Conspiracy alert: a favoured buoy for high winds would be SPGF1, but there are no recent reports. You might think it had been knocked out by high winds, but perhaps that’s just what NOAA want you to believe! Sorry, I’m getting way too silly here.

        Rich.

      • Slice it where you will, but … Still no major hurricane landfalls for 4002 days and counting.

        “Oh no! More frequent and powerful hurricanes! We gotta’ do SOMETHING!” [Fluttering sound of hand wringing]

      • See – owe to Rich October 7, 2016 at 10:46 am
        brians356 October 7, 2016 at 10:47 am

        Hi guys. Your reply’s puzzle me. See – owe to Rich an interesting and well thought out analysis, and not worth a bucket of owl spit. It does not matter if the eye wall comes straight a cross you, or just side swaps you. If you got hit by a major hurricane you will know it.
        So have you stood out side looking into the full fury and majesty of even a small one?

        Ah brians356 are you implying hand waving on my part? I love hurricanes . As for this one nothing new, good size yes but no bigger then any other. As for how to try to stop or limit one, you can’t build a big enough speed bump.

        michael :-)

  5. Oh … well I guess all the doom mongers are probably sinking into depression now. This morning the MSM had their reporters out in the storm again. They show pictures of devastation caused by other hurricanes and give worst case maybes out as fact. Honestly, I guess it is a sign of the times to over report, over estimate and end up with egg on the face. I do not doubt this hurricane will cause damage but the degradation of science continues with every over blown story of gloom and doom. I have trouble believing even the weather services now. Its a pity.
    There has to be a happy medium here, disaster mongering is not doing anything but making people ignore the warnings that might actually save them next time.

    • I’m just hoping I might get to see another background jogger out in the storm wearing a horse-head mask, as the cute TV reporter attempts to convince us that the end of times has arrived.

      • No more horse-heads, it’s all about creepy clowns these days … but the jogger in the background is a classsssssic

      • My favorite was a reporterette reporting about a flood while sitting in a canoe.
        During the interview someone walked past, just a few feet behind the canoe. The water turned out to be mid-calf level. If that.

    • i watched 2 minutes of Fox Biz. ‘there are over 200,000 homes on the north coast of florida at risk, that is 43 billion dollars” Geez like every single home will be a total loss. Wankers.

  6. In the earlier post, the AGW felt compelled to call Matt super strong, yet it was Cat4 then, not 5. Now I suppose they will call it. A super strong 3?

    • You do not know the power of the dark side of the force. They’ll probably call it a 7 on the Vader scale.

    • See my earlier post about ABC News’ breathless proclamation:

      “No other Atlantic storm on record has packed such powerful winds for such a prolonged period as Hurricane Matthew.” OMG!

  7. There was a comment on another thread that ground level wind speeds in Freeport were a max 65 knots sustained, so barely Category 1. Any ground station reports from Florida?

  8. Weather forecasting is an inexact science. We can measure damn near everything that affects the path of a hurricane and throw a lot of computing power at it, but the path still cannot be accurately forecast 3 days out to better than plus or minus 250nm, and even 1 day out cannot be precise, with the models all over the place literally.

    But we are supposed to believe dire predictions/projections of climate and sea level rise 10, 20 and 50 years or more into the future (none of which have come to pass), and that another 2 degrees F rise in the average will be catastrophic – this when day/night temperature variation can be 20 degrees F or more, and yearly variation can easily be from 0 degrees F to over 100 degrees F at many places. And the plants and animals and especially humans are all quite well adapted to this.

    But still, “Run! Run! We’re all going to die!!!”

    • The Science is Settled.
      Now off to the re-education camp for you Mr. Little.
      And don’t even think of running for a public office until you become a card-carrying believer.

      • Non Nomen October 7, 2016 at 9:05 am
        Decent people will stand their ground, provided they have a decent hurricane cellar.

        Not a good idea on the Florida coast!

  9. Roy Spencer has some good comments at http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/10/4001-days-the-major-hurricane-drought-continues/

    The “maximum sustained winds” problem

    Another issue that is not new is the concern that the “maximum sustained winds” reported for hurricanes are overestimated. I doubt this is the case. But there is a very real problem that the area of maximum winds usually covers an extremely small portion of the hurricane. As a result, seldom does an actual anemometer (wind measuring device) on a tower measure anything close to what is reported as the maximum sustained winds. This is because there aren’t many anemometers with good exposure and the chances of the small patch of highest winds hitting an instrumented tower are pretty small.

    It also raises the legitimate question of whether maximum sustained winds should be focused on so much when hurricane intensity is reported.

    Note that “anemometer on a tower” means an anemometer designed to handle hurricane force winds mounted 10 meters above the land away from trees, building and other obstructions.

    My Davis VP anemometer (which is decent) is at about 3 meters, and has trees and houses all around. It often reports 2-3 mph sustained when the Concord airport is reporting 10-15.

    How are maximum sustained winds estimated?

    Research airplanes fly into western Atlantic hurricanes and measure winds at flight level in the regions most likely to have the highest winds, and then surface winds are estimated from average statistical relationships. Also, dropsonde probes are dropped into high wind regions and GPS tracking allows near-surface winds to be measured pretty accurately. Finally, a Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) on board the aircraft measures the roughness of the sea surface to estimate wind speed.

    As the hurricane approaches the U.S. coastline, doppler radar also provides some ability to measure wind speeds from the speed of movement of precipitation blowing toward or away from the radar.

      • JJStrom- as long as the NHC uses the same measures, and are lucky enough to spot the highest velocities, they are fine. Peak velocity is important because the dynamic pressure of the wind varies as V^2. 140mph is a third more dangerous than 120mph. If those brave aviators can’t find any wind over 120 the storm is a lot less dangerous than one hitting 140mph.
        While the area of peak velocity may be relatively small it is not an outlier measurement.

    • Spencer has a point. Hurricane rating is based on the highest sustained wind speed measured within the entire storm at any time. So the NHC may well be reporting accurately provided it consistently uses this well known practice in keeping with the way it has always done. Spencer is also right to question whether this is the best method. In many types of data collection, outliers are disregarded. That is defensible in at least some cases. But the norm for measuring the strength of hurricanes is to use only the outlying values. That seems questionable.

      • ” Hurricane rating is based on the highest sustained wind speed measured within the entire storm at any time” …… AT 10 METERS above the ground, not from an airplane !!!

      • I don’t know. When preparing for a storm, I would rather prepare for the outlier, rather than plan on getting hit only by the “average” wind.

    • Everyone interested in this topic should read this. There will be quiz during the post-mortem grousing. :-)

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml

      Excerpt:

      4. Operational Recommendations

      Based on these and similar analyses for other normalization altitudes, the following reduction factors are recommended for reducing flight-level winds in the inner core of a tropical cyclone to the surface (33 ft) level: for the 700 mb level, R = 0.90; for the 850 mb level (commonly flown in tropical storms), R = 0.80. For investigative flights at 1,000 ft, R = 0.85. As significant variations from these means have been noted in individual storms; these guidelines can be modified as conditions warrant. Storm-to-storm variability will primarily be influenced by wind speed, cyclone convective intensity, and sea-surface temperature.

      The mean eyewall profile (Fig. 1) has implications for high-rise buildings and elevated terrain. Table 1 gives the wind at various altitudes as a percentage of the surface wind. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average about 20 mph (one Saffir-Simpson category) higher than at the surface. This can be seen in an example from Hurricane Georges (Fig. 3). In this case, the surface winds are near the lower end of Category Three; yet at an altitude of 300 ft the winds are now in the middle of Category Four.

      Note that “surface” means 10 meter height, except maybe when they talk about a 30 story building.

  10. Read the 11:00am EST, Oct. 7. NRC official public “Discussion”. In a one-liner it claims that the airplane said the storm was a Cat. 3 with ground level winds at 120 mph. Again, not a word on multiple actual measurements on the ground which are much lower. Why not an explanation of the difference? Looks like tone deaf arrogant guv’mint workers with absolutely no accountability. They’re above public scrutiny. And the public can ‘go to hell’.

    • The 120 mph winds are estimated at the surface near the eye. “[a]ctual measurements on the ground” are going to be, in this case, at least 20 miles away from the eye, so will, of course, be lower, or even much lower.

  11. Gusts of up to 50 mph happen where I live and sustained of 35 are frequent. I’ve been in wind of about 80 mph. In the real world this gets dangerous because things begin to move that should not. [That’s why they invented duct tape.]
    The web has many reports, videos & text.
    “Matthew” is moving at about 10 knots so take some time and look at some of these. Here are two:

    Associated Press reporter Jerry Bodlander in a University of Maryland wind tunnel:

    Text report by Angela of WaPo

    • Nice to see reporters otu in the field with their sleeves rolled up actually observing the phenomena.

  12. Janice Moore
    October 7, 2016 at 7:59 am

    [Congratulations to Dr. Philip Klotzbach! (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/05/hurricane-data-from-1851-suggests-matthew-landfall-on-east-coast-of-florida-is-a-longshot/ )

    Yes he was correct about a long shot, but for the wrong reason. His point was that no October hurricanes had made landfall on the east coast. This is not a physical reason. In the previous article on Mathew, I suggested the following:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/07/matthew-downgraded-to-cat3-hurricane-as-it-approaches-florida-coast/#comment-2314647

    “Regarding the mechanics of the hurricane, as an engineer, it seems to me that a hurricane moving along the shore or at a shallow angle has asymmetric conditions re water depth and pulls itself back toward deeper water thereby tending to hold itself away from landfall. One at a more acute angle could easily make landfall. For this reason, I think all modeled tracks that unbendingly crossed into Florida and north of Florida as if behavior on land and sea were identical, should be summarily disregarded. I wonder if the actual south Atlantic coast hasnt been shaped by hurricanes of this kind. I am not a meteorologist so I suspect I will hear some flack about this.”

    • Dear Gary Pearse,

      Your point is a good one, however, do remember that the historical data upon which Dr. Klotzbach based his reasoning reflect the physicality of the area of interest.

      Your grateful (and YOU know why though you NEVER acknowledge my “thank you’s” about it, lolol) WUWT U.S. ally,

      Janice

      • Dear Janice, I hereby officially acknowledge your thank yous and also continue to enjoy your style, upbeat humor, cogent and intelligent observations and criticisms, all seasoned with fine humanity, flair and heart. You are some lady indeed! I best stop here.

    • A possible physical explanation could be the following. Right now (October) Nullschool says that offshore the water temperature is up to 30ºC (day and night). Onshore the actual temperature is around 25ºC. Lower temperatures correspond with higher pressure and air flows from high to low. So there should be a principal movenment of air from land seawards. This could explain the tendency of hurricanes that are going to the North to follow the sea and not to enter the land.

  13. As soon as the hurricane drought does end, whether from this storm (which looks unlikely) or a future one, the drought will have, according to Warmists “never happened”.
    Warmist “logic”.

  14. Hit or miss definition. [Seems to have got binned earlier; I’ll try again without the con* stuff about SPGF1]

    In my opinion, a hit requires the eyewall to pass over the coast and for sustained winds there to be measured at 111mph or more, 10m above ground. End of.

    Matthew now has a snowflake’s chance in the eye of a hurricane of being a hit. In fact, I doubt that even 74mph (minimum hurricane winds, as opposed to 111mph for a Major) will be measured. But I’m more prepared to be wrong on that one. I look forward to the “post mortem” proving it one way or the other.

    Rich.

  15. Track estimates show a possible landing only at Charleston, but by then Mathew will be a Cat 2 storm, which it almost is right now (at 115 MPH) as it approaches Jacksonville.

  16. Earthnullschool shows this system is dying rapidly. Probable path is to spin offshore but with water already churned up and cooling the water and Nicole due east doing the same it could likely turn into a big soaker when it spins around.

  17. One earlier comment says – “In fact, a much greater problem is complacency”, in reference to people underestimating the situation and that says it all. I woke this morning in Australia to still have Matthew described as a “monster storm” and whilst still hoping it isn’t and does little damage, these sorts of descriptions and the evacuations etc often lead people to think they have survived, in this case a Cat 4, so next time they might just stay home and have a barbeque. That is a real risk.

    • “A” real risk is the exaggeration given to such events by those who are actually hoping for a weather disaster to justify past failed predictions of the effects of caGW.
      Yesterday (or maybe the day before) “The Storm Channel” was projecting a storm surge of 6-9 feet for the Jacksonville area. The National Hurricane Center was only talking about up to 6 feet. (The web site went down about 11 pm last night. It’s back up now.)
      Will TSC say they got it wrong? No. They left the impression they wanted. They rely on people not remembering what they had said about tomorrow.
      Cry “wolf” too often and your warnings are ignored.
      Err on the side of caution but not on the side of an agenda.

      • Bloomberg et al. over-hyped the danger of Irene, which was part of the reason why their warnings about Sandy (do I have that name right?) next year were ignored by some.

  18. As of thhis post (October 7th at 5pm EDT), the highest recorded sustained wind speeds measured by any surface station in Florida during Mathew was at 1pm by NDBC station SAUF1. From any station anywhere in Florida, 56 knots at St. Augustine, FL.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=sauf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

    The highest sustained winds at Cape Canaveral were also well below category 1, with this station being typical. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8721604
    So, about 44 knots around noon at the Trident Pier, FL tides station.

    Land based stations in Florida in these areas were consistent with NDBC buoys on the eastern coast of Florida. No recorded sustained surface winds reaching hurricane threshold anywhere in Florida.

    • Meant to say “as of the time of this post”
      Looks like Mathew was about Category 1 in Haiti, based on photos of wind damage, but could find no actual surface stations recording winds there. Station 42058 south of Haiti did record 67 knot sustained winds on both sides of the eye as the storm passed North over that station before reaching Haiti.

      Certainly there were Category 1 maximum recorded sustained winds in the Bahamas, but no hurricane force winds after Mathew left the Bahamas.
      Mathew is clearly weakening as it moves north of Florida.

  19. Since it’s now a category 2 hurricane the record goes unbroken. It would have to strengthen as it moves north which is very unlikely.

  20. Latest Advisory : Down to cat 2 & decreasing strength forecast. Looks like the cat 3 no-hot streak is going to remain in tact. FROm NHC, latest advisory :

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/072046.shtml?

    Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and satellite intensity
    estimates indicate that Matthew has weakened a little bit and the
    maximum winds are 95 kt. The hurricane is heading toward an area of
    increasing shear, and this should result in gradual weakening. The
    shear is forecast to continue during the next 5 days, so additional
    weakening is anticipated and Matthew is expected to be a tropical
    depression by the end of the forecast period.

  21. Another “you can’t make this stuff up” story. MSM is reporting the fact that Waffle House is closing its’ restaurants in face of the storm and that means it must be a bad one. The reports run along the lines of “Waffle House only closes in severe conditions.” Now there’s proof positive of a weather event given to you by the paragon of weather and climate reporting.

    • http://www.marketplace.org/2015/03/04/business/when-disaster-strikes-fema-turns-waffle-house

      The 24-hour restaurant chain prides itself on serving its customers at all hours of the day, seven days a week. And FEMA caught on to this. They discovered that if a Waffle House was closed after a storm, then that meant things were really bad.

      “It just doesn’t happen where Waffle House is normally shut down,” said Philip Strouse, FEMA’s private sector liaison for the Southeast.

      Strouse said Waffle Houses are able to bounce back relatively quickly after a natural disaster, and have a good sense of what their statuses are in a community.

      “They’re the canary in the coalmine, if you will,” Strouse said.

      In 2011, the current head of FEMA, administrator Craig Fugate, was said to have coined what’s called the Waffle House Index. There are three measures in the index: green, yellow and red.

      Green means the restaurant is open as usual, yellow means it’s on a limited menu, and red means the restaurant’s closed.

      The index isn’t necessarily scientific, Strouse said, but it allows FEMA to know quickly about how things are on the ground.

  22. It’s interesting how all of the models agree tightly about where climate change temps are going, but the models about where this hurricane will go disagree wildly. It’s either going inland, or up the East Coast, or out into the Northern Atlantic Ocean, or into the mid-Atlantic, or it’s going to loop around and cross Florida to hit the Mexico or Cuba or anywhere across the broad Caribbean.

    Their crystal balls can’t see two days ahead but can see two centuries ahead? Right.

  23. If Matthew peters out there are going to be a lot of Creepy Clowns in the scary global warming circus upset .
    Obviously tragic for many that will need all the support they can get . Money would be better spent assisting those effected by natural disasters instead wasting it on fat cat corporate welfare bums in the “renewable “sector .

  24. More than 1 million customers without power in Florida! One can only wonder when the renewable power plants – wind power and solar PV – will be blamed for this one. it’s just a minor wind event, not even a category 4 hurricane. Yet power is out all along the coast.

    Seems Australia’s wind turbines got the blame for their outage.

    • More than half a million customers’ power has been restored already. That’s a pretty good recovery ~ 1 day after the “hurricane of the century.”

    • It wasn’t just a “seems” for Australia. It is clear that the sudden shutdown of 40% of generated power for Southern Australia was the trigger for the shutdown. You can’t do that to a large electrical grid and keep it running. And furthermore there is not enough wind and solar on any American grid to cause that kind of destabilization, yet. All windmills are doing in the U.S. is needlessly jacking up power bills.

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