#Matthew downgraded to Cat3 hurricane as it approaches Florida coast


From NHC, which has had connectivity problems related to the storm overnight:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later today, and a turn
toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Matthew will be moving near or over the east
coast of the Florida peninsula through tonight, and near or over the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some additional
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected
to be a powerful category 3 hurricane as it moves near the coast of
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). During the past hour, a wind gust to 70 mph (113
km/h) was reported at Vero Beach, Florida, and a gust to 60 mph
occurred at Melbourne, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Latest satellite and radar imagery, plus spaghetti forecast plots.

matthew-10-7-16-2amest-plots matthew-10-7-16-2amest-radar matthew-10-7-16-2amest

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154 thoughts on “#Matthew downgraded to Cat3 hurricane as it approaches Florida coast

  1. It’s starting to draw in the cool air stream coming down the eastern seaboard…that should take some of the sting out of it.

    • Does it still count as a “Cat 3 Hurricane Drought” ender if the eye never makes landfall. I’m sure tens of millions would disagree if it were claimed that the Hurricane Drought continues because Matthew never made landfall

      • Are we now to debate the definition of “is”? The main problem we have in science is the altering the definitions and and at times the data to accommodate perceived popular opinion. Provide a measure that would be consistently accurate into the future. Counter question. Would one substantial rain in LA end California’s drought?

    • Sorry, eyewall, not eye.

      Good news for Floridians but the CAGW crowd will be disappointed that they’ve been deprived of a disaster.

      • >>Maximum sustained winds about 44 mph, thats 38 knots.

        Less wind than a winter depression over the UK.
        I have done aircraft circuit training in 35 knots.
        And landed in 65 kts.
        What is all the fuss about?

        R

      • People like you still don’t get it do you. The maximum winds are in a small band near the center. Yes it is no big deal if you are away from the center and do not experience those high winds. However, if you do get hit with the maximum winds they are devastating. So you always need to prepare for those maximum winds and hope you are not in the path. If you have never been to an area that has been destroyed by such high winds you cannot understand it.
        Just because your location doesn’t get hit with the highest winds doesn’t lessen the need to know that those winds exist someplace else.

      • Tom.

        I was helping in the Philippines immediately after Haiyan. And even right in the eye of the storm, all the concrete houses survived, and their roofs too. (Although many roofs were curled at the edges, and the paintwork had been sandblasted back to bare concrete.) And since Haiyan was one of the most powerful on record, this demonstrates that even very simply produced concrete buildings are perfectly resistant to hurricane winds.

        The devastation was caused by 99.9 % of people living in wooden huts, which instantly turned into matchwood and flying debris. Now it may well be that the vast poverty in the Philippines means that concrete housing is not possible for everyone,** but there is no excuse for 21st century Americans still living in timber-frame chicken-sheds. And remember that many storm casualties are from flying debris, which would not be flying if the US housing stock was well constructed.

        So we get subjected to repeated bleating from America, about how terrible their weather can be and how people are in such danger, when the technology to prevent these disasters has been around for 100 years. (Or 2,000 years, if you include Roman concrete technology. The Pantheon still has the largest unreinforced concrete dome in the world, and that was built nearly 2,000 years ago.)

        This is an article on how affordable concrete frame housing is perfectly tornado and hurricane proof.

        http://tornadoproofhouses.com/lessons.php

        The only house to survive an F4 tornado was a concrete house. While all the chicken-shed housing was turned to matchwood.

        ** I got some of the aid agencies investing in 4mm steel cable, to tie down the Philippino chicken-shed housing. A wooden shack might have a chance if survival, if it has guy-ropes to anchor it, and keep the roof on.

      • And here is an IFC concrete house after hurricane Katrina. Notice any difference to the standard housing next door? Don’t expect any sympathy from me, if America cannot spend its vast financial resources on decent housing.

      • Ralfellis,

        Yes concrete homes stand up very well. But look closely at the windows. Are they still there? If not, then the inside is most likely destroyed and unlivable. Wind entering the structure, usually via broken windows causes much of the destruction of homes. Keeping the wind out is the most important thing you can do. Flying debris, even at 80 mph can do so much damage.

      • >>Windows

        Dear me, is the USA really so poor and backward? Our large factory window have withstood hundred mile an hour winds and flying debris on top of a hill for decades – they were installed in 1935. Is the US really incapable of making a frame and window that can withstand some wind?

        P.S. If you read the article, that concrete house hit by a tornado was still under construction.

      • ralfellis asks: “What is all the fuss about?”

        From Fort Lauderdale, on the water, 1 mile from the beach:

        All sensible people know (or ought to) that most US media outlets are into disasters. The local S. Florida TV continuous coverage was pretty good, and was soothing in its presence. I could see immediate, real-time radar, every time I checked. The national media, well, not so much (most of them have no credibility with me anyway). It’s unfortunate that corruption and bureaucratic mission creep have begun to turn agencies of the government responsible for weather sciences into disaster pimps. The latter role serves their narrow self-interest, but robs them of credibility when they are most needed, ie. this week.

        But that’s not to say that Matthew is not a big deal, or that many millions of South Floridians have not just dodged a major bullet. Even at this lucky place, there still lots of isolated damages and power outages. Most of the damage comes from downed trees and tree limbs falling on power lines and transformers. Some roofs and homes are undoubtedly damaged. Some local flooding seems to have happened, but on the whole all of these appear fairly minor. One poor community had an 8″ water main break just as the worst of the winds were coming, probably just a coincidence. Storm surge damage seems to have mostly been avoided by the path of the hurricane, too, at least so far. Because Matthew paralleled the shore and followed the Gulf Stream, the wind fetch was not from a single direction for long periods. As the wind fetch changed directions and began to blow from the north, then northwest (offshore) some wave action was knocked down. The Gulf Stream undoubtedly helped carry away some of the surge water. On the down-side, look for reports of record sea level rise in the next reports from the mid-Atlantic basin as the wind-pushed water sloshes around and slowly attempts to satisfy gravity. All in all, I feel very fortunate. I wish for the same good-fortune for Daytona, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, and the outer banks of N. Carolina.

      • >>Even at this lucky place, there still lots of
        >>isolated damages and power outages.

        But again I noted that much of the US electrical system is located on poles and pylons, even through towns and cities. Is that true in your location? So we then get an enhancement of problems, because the poor wooden housing creates flying debris, which then strikes the elevated electrical supplies and takes out the electrical supply.

        In great contrast, town and city electrical supplies in UK and Europe are mostly underground, and therefore safe from storm damage. And my flat is built on concrete columns 50cm square, and only four stories high. There is no way I would favour a car suck on a road, to this flat, when faced with hurricane conditions. Again, there is no point pleading about terrible weather conditions and disasters, when the real problem lies in poor infrastructure.

        R

      • Ralfellis asked: “much of the US electrical system is located on poles and pylons, even through towns and cities. Is that true in your location?”

        No, I live in an area where the power lines AND transformers are under the street. This works great when it’s windy, but it really sucks when there’s street flooding, particularly when occasional King Tides flood the streets with salt water. The salt water is tough on all buried infrastructure, water and sewer lines, phone, TV and internet cabling. Some buried infrastructure is difficult to impossible to monitor and isn’t maintained at all, until it breaks. If it’s not one thing, it’s your mother.

    • Eyewall has the high winds but the eye is offshore. On shore, 70 mph or so. Without moisture coming in from the west over Florida, hard to see how hurricane is going to run into the coast.

      • ? One gust of 70 mph recorded is it. Looking like the zero cat 3 or stronger streak is to continue.

        So far zero hurricane force winds recorded AFAICT.

      • David,
        Though technically correct, I’m certain that tens of millions of people would be inclined to disagree with that.

      • Bryan A
        “David,
        Though technically correct, I’m certain that tens of millions of people would be inclined to disagree with that.”

        You agree David is correct! However, you go with emotion over fact, that you agree with! Knock off the tens of million (that you know little of) nonsense.

      • Flyoverbob,
        I was agreeing that David might be Technically Correct WRT the statement “Looking like the zero cat 3 or stronger streak is to continue” Provided that the EYE doesn’t intersect the coast (technical landfall) before the storm weakens to a cat 2 or lower
        This would be an agreement of fact rather than emotion considering 10’s of millions aren’t being “Knocked Off”
        My other point was that the 10’s of millions of residents in the region might be less inclined to believe that Matthew didn’t strike their area hard … again, fact not emotion

      • Fact 1:
        Matthew is currently a strong cat 3 storm (was a cat 4).
        Fact 2:
        If the eye of the storm makes landfall while a cat 3 the 4000+ day old storm drought that the esteemed Lord Monkton speaks of will be officially over.
        Fact 3:
        If the eye doesn’t intersect land prior to the storm weakening to a cat 2 storm, technically the afore mentioned storm drought continues.
        Fact 4:
        The 10M+ residents of the region might be inclined to consider themselves storm victims of a cat 3 or cat 4 Hurricane regardless of whether the eye technically intersects land or not and would argue that the Storm Drought should be considered ended.

  2. Mathew passed 40 miles east of NDBC station LKWF1, at Lake Worth Pier, FL (North of Miami)
    Maximum recorded sustained surface winds of 40 knots, peaked at 5.30 eastern time.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=lkwf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

    Less than 50 miles ESE of station SIPF1, maximum sustained winds less than 50 knots.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=lkwf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

    Approaching station 41009 off Cape Canaveral, about 60 miles, and should pass directly over in a few hours. Maximum sustained winds at 2.20 eastern time still increasing, 43 knots.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41009&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

    Well below the 64 knot hurricane threshold.

  3. Still being spun as “possibly the worst evah” here in Australia, but that is not unusual for our lame stream media.

    • Had its path been maybe 40-50 miles further west, “possibly worst evah” may have been, uh, possibly correct.

      • That is correct. It always amazes me that when people at locations that were lucky and did not get hit with maximum winds go off and brag about surviving at Cat 3 or 4 when in fact they never saw the effects of those winds. They do not understand how lucky they were.

      • Tom.

        Donna went over my Sanford house (I was in 2nd grade) in ’60 and Charley went right over my house in Orlando. Both were MAJOR storms and the eyewall went over me.

        I always want the TRUTH about any storm. Give me the sustained ground speeds that are the defining characteristic of a cane category. “The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 10 m [33 ft]) is the determining factor in the scale” Don’t give me wind speeds at airplane height and lie to me.

        Canes are dangerous as you point out, but so is always hyping them to where the common man gets to thinking they are not so bad. I have seen local video of people walking dogs on the beach behind reporters telling us how dangerous the winds are. Holy Cow.

      • Mark,
        I am not defending the over hype. Most of us with experience understand that. But imagine if they get it wrong the other way. I have a neighbor who pays no attention to these things. He is a danger to everyone’s homes in the area because he does not understand to move all his loose objects inside when a storm approaches. These things become flying projectiles and damage everyone’s homes. He is an idiot. If my area ever gets hit hard and he ends up with no power and no supplies, I will not help him and I have told him that. Pay attention and be prepared. Other than that he is a nice guy.

        Here is my chief complaint about those reporters outside in a storm is the misconception they show concerning wind speed. Trees are swaying in the background, rain is blowing by, their clothes are whipping in the wind, and almost all of the time they are in winds less than 40 mph. So people get a false sense of what 80+ mph winds actually look like. Everyone should stick their head out the window of your car at 80 mph and see what I mean. So people see these reporters “braving” the weather and think that hurricane winds is no big deal.

    • No Patrick – one of the worst storms in this area (east coast FL, GA, SC) in recent memory was hurricane Hugo in 1989. Cat 4 at landfall in Charleston, SC. My mom lived through that storm and it truly was very bad…

    • So long as they don’t fall into the trap of “This is the first time in recorded history that a storm of this magnitude has skirted the coast bringing so much devastation in it’s wake” headlines. When has ANY Hurricane ever followed the path of a prior storm

  4. It is a little early to speculate, and there is no point to speculation given that before the weekend is out, we will know the actual factual position. That is the time to have a postmortem.

    It is obviously very good news if Matthew is less strong than initially suspected/forecast and if it will further decrease in strength. Even better news if it passes mainly offshore with only tropical storm force winds lashing the land.

    Wishing everyone well in the affected path.

  5. The 4000 day and counting landfall drought record may remain running after Matthew turns seaward on Saturday night. That’ll be popcorn worthy in itself just watching the climate doomsters parse that into “worst evah.” Crooked Hillary at Sunday’s debate will be left equivocating as the Clinton’s are so good at doing.

  6. NHC doubles down on “the plane syndrome”. It continues to ignore actual surface level measured wind speeds in making it’s official intensity public statements. It responded to Drudge’s skepticism on NHC’s estimates by repeating “we stand by our airplane estimates”. Why not tell the public what the actual land based wind speeds are, and explain the differences with the airplane estimates to provide the public with best available facts.

    • I don’t want to sound nutty, but I wonder if the software used to shift airborne to ground may not have been tweaked? I have a house near the beach in Florida, so I’m watching this like a hawk, and I keep noticing a disconnect between ground station and NOAA reports. Maybe that hurricane just managed to weave around to avoid striking instrumented weather stations?

    • Here’s an article from the Bahamas http://www.tribune242.com/news/2016/oct/06/live-updates-hurricane-matthew/

      “10.45pm: HURRICANE Matthew is moving to the north west of Freeport on Thursday night, with the south eastern quadrant of the eyewall moving over Grand Bahama and bringing sustained winds between 80 and 100 mph, with occasional gusts between 100 and 120 mph.

      #An AccuWeather Skyguard alert for The Tribune said continued flooding rainfall is expected with an additional three to six inches expected before conditions begin to improve by late Friday morning.

      #Nassau should anticipate sustained winds between 25and 35 mph with occasional gusts to 50mph through midnight. Heavy rainfall will continue overnight with an additional two to four inches of rainfall expected.”

  7. I think it is a shame, no a crime, that the people of the US can never really be sure of data coming out of the government agencies. If the people at NASA want to prove there is CO2 caused “global warming” of a dangerous level then let them honestly prove it. Don’t scare the people with inflated numbers. (and stop changing the temperatures in the G-D 1930s!)

    I am not saying that Matt Drudge was right or wrong on the numbers — but he is right that there is no check on the government agencies. And only a fool thinks the government won’t lie to you.

    I am here in Orlando and at this moment we have some rain and a little wind. So far, so good.

    • Mark, I think it is more of a err on the side of caution. No politician or government agency wants to be put in a position to have to defend a what could be perceived as a lack of attention to a major problem that they did not give warning to. It is bad for their future careers.
      That is why in so many cases we end up with much ado about nothing. Most of us that have lived through a hurricane or other very severe weather events understand this. But I cannot say this often enough, we prepare for the worse and hope they are wrong. It only takes one mistake to lose your home or your life.

      • lose your home too a hurricane ? if you live inland ? are you serious ? I’ve been thru several where the eye passed overhead … its not a tornado moron …

      • Tom,
        Why err at all? Every time these folks lie, exaggerate, prevaricate or otherwise stretch the truth it just makes it more likely that more folks will ignore them when the next storm looms on the horizon. What will they do or say when a real Cat 5 hoves into view? Will they claim 300 mph winds so that people will prepare for 200 mph winds?

        Tell the truth and let folks deal with it as they can or should. But then they would lose out on funding and face time.

        PBH

      • Kaiser,
        While a Hurricane isn’t a Tornado, as you so eloquently stated, IF Matthew IS a Cat 3 as touted, the larger storms have been reported to spawn tornados in their outer arms

      • McComberBoy October 7, 2016 at 6:13 am
        “Tom, Why err at all?”

        As I said, their careers depend playing it safe. When a disaster hits and people say they weren’t warned, they always blame government officials for their situation. The blame game goes on and on, lower level people being fired over higher level officials being complacent. So they over hype to make sure even the simplest fool cannot blame them afterwards. I am not condoning this, I am just saying that is the way it is in our present society.

        And by the way Kaiser, people do lose their homes to hurricanes. Just because it didn’t happen to you doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. Only a real moron would not understand this.

    • They said it was a CAT-4 with 165mph gusts over Nassau, but nobody actually sensed anything like that on the ground. Hmmm…

  8. Didn’t Matthew’s eye cross right over a NOAA buoy a day or two ago and barely made hurricane force wind speeds with gusts, and much lower sustained speeds?

  9. Is it possible that the “models” they use to convert wind speed at altitude, to wind speed at sea level are faulty? The disparity between observation and altitude reports is huge, same as in previous events such as Sandy and the Mexican “mega storm” that was not.

  10. All those people who evacuated — bet they wish they had a pitchfork to go after the global warmists. Nothing like running from what turns out to be a bogeyman to get the ire up.

    Eugene WR Gallun

    • Eugene~ I was Hidden Valley Scout Camp the week Hurricane Agnes passed thru Pennsylvania, quite a distance inland. The person who took us home worked for the PA government and just happened to be one of those who had to assess the damage across the state.
      We took ‘the long way’ home due to that. We saw a LOT of damage.

      Maybe not the vast majority, but some of those evacuating will likely be very glad they did.

    • Not if you are here in Florida. And not if you recall the alarmists claiming that hurricanes “prove” CAGW.

      Mrs. Clinton has even claimed that Mathew proves CO2 is going to fry us all.

      • If one wants to play down the importance of a hurricane, it would be better not to have 7 articles on it :-)

      • @John,

        A cat 4 hurricane that has continually defied model and human prediction whilst heading towards the coast is big news. Weatherbell, which usually nails the forecast track first go, has been shifting their position as more data came in. The GFS and Euro both couldn’t make a prediction that remained valid more than 24 hours. You can check that for yourself: the spaghetti plots are all over the map each run.

        Whether it made landfall or not, this is a big ticket item and 7 articles discussing up to date information seems appropriate, to me at least.

      • Now 8 articles on this site discussing it. Discuss it, sure, but no other topics allowed?

        If you want news, go to CNN. Even they are carrying other stories as well though.

  11. IF any teeny, tiny, potion of any part of the eyewall “touches” land, it will have “slammed into the US”.

    • Wharfplank, at 0800 the NHC headline for Matthew was “…EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HUGGING THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA..” I believe I saw it “brushing” the coast a few minutes earlier. That would technically be a hit, but the most reliable measure would be the actual wind speeds measured at ground stations in the area.

  12. I’m starting to feel pretty good about our early prediction of no US major landfall.
    Reading on the weather boards, I see Florida locals are already saying they’ve been cried wolf.
    Such is life in FLa. I suppose

  13. The hype associated with this storm is truly comical. I get being cautions, but seriously? I heard Shep Smith say “evacuate or die!” So much for that eh? 70mph winds and a lot of rain. Whooptido! It seems no one remembers that Florida has in fact been hit by hurricanes before… this isn’t the “storm of the century” or “unprecedented”, it is just another storm.

    • Ir is hyped. My Florida house is near the beach, and over 60 years old. It has done very well in previous hurricanes, but I do worry about a tree hitting the Spanish tile roof. We have never evacuated during storms, but the lack of electricity sure is a hassle. Having a generator can be handy.

  14. trees, storms and power lines don’t play together well. We can afford to put most distribution lines’s underground in conduits. It would save a lot of mayhem Let’s put our 90 million unemployed to work at guiding trenching machines. Power for the people.

    • NPR is saying that 300,000 people are without power.
      (But weren’t the alarmsists throwing around much larger numbers a day or two ago?)

    • “Let’s put our 90 million unemployed to work at guiding trenching machines.”

      Underground is the way to go. How about we put 30 million unemployed to work at guiding trenching machines, and the other 60 million fixing what the guiding trenching machines cut.

      • And another 90 million redoing it all because of the “I don’t give a shit” mindset of so many these days.

      • 90 and 90 is 180 million so you would also require another 180 million standing around smoking and then an additional 120 million to supervise

  15. The difference between measures of winds aloft and surface data (buoys, etc.) is an interesting one. Does anybody have data from past hurricanes that would illustrate? Is there a significant delta from storm to storm in the difference between those measures? I’m thinking all we have for the historical record is surface, and that would be mostly from land stations.

    • Taylor, it’s been several years, but I believe we had this discussion with a CAT 1 hurricane landing somewhere around Virginia. Wind speed estimates called it a hurricane, but all ground stations showed lower wind speeds.

      • Keep in mind that ground wind speeds are lower due to friction from trees and buildings. But it doesn’t mean the winds are not possible. One of the most amazing things I have seen was after Charley hit Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda FL. Driving past the Port Charlotte Sports Complex which was the home of spring training and a minor league baseball team, there was little ground level damage but all the light towers were bent at 90 degrees about 40 feet up. All of them, in the direction of the first winds that hit. Amazing sight.

    • Thanks, good info. Steve, I may do some searching to see if there’s any science to how this varies, but based on Tom in Florida’s comments, it seems a bit freakish in individual circumstances. Obviously terrain matters (particularly with areas as flat as Florida), but if winds vary widely in a few hundred feet of altitude, then the difference between the bottom floor and top floor of some of those high rise buildings must be wild. I wonder if there are any sites there with vertically spaced aeronometors to determine that effect.

      Any ideas on the altitude of the hurricane hunter aircraft? Do they ascend and descend to get readings at different altitudes?

      • Lots of hurricanes will have little tornadoes in them. I’ve seen where they came ashore and it looked like a giant took a steel toothed comb through the trees. There would be gaps cut 30 feet wide that went inland for a few hundred feet where all of the trees were knocked down, but the ones between the gaps were largely undisturbed.

  16. The NHC site has been down more than up all night. This is astonishing. I wonder if the defense dept uses the same processes or if they are forced to use solar energy at night to power the servers! Absolute failure during a major hurricane event is inexcusable.

    Here try for yourself.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  17. Buoy 41009 Canaveral that looks to be in the direct path 20nm offshore is only seeing 65mph sustained and gusts of 78mph.

  18. This has to be the worst PR the NHC could have ever pulled…and the news media and all were promoting it

    It was supposed to be the worst Cat 4 in history right now…..and they have already downgraded to a 3
    …no land wind speed measurement has come even close
    People are walking their dogs on the beach behind the news reporters

    We are all glad and relieved……but it’s going to be even harder to get people to leave next time

    • Agreed. People will claim it was not big deal and the next few times it may be the same. But as people of Homestead and Punta Gorda both found out, it only takes once to destroy your life.

  19. Thanksgiving weekend of 2011, I was living with my family in Fairplay, CO. A storm rolled over the mountain tops that Friday and by that night I was very concerned that the winds would blow our house down. Power went out Saturday night after more than 24 hours of the highest strength sustained winds I have ever experienced…and I grew up in Tampa. All the while being 40 below outside…real temp.
    After a few days, we felt comfortable driving down to town where we learned that the anemometer broke at 125mph.

    No news reports…..no fan fair….this went completely unreported on any weather stations or other news outlets.

    Now, 50mph winds hit East coast of FLA and the world goes agog!

    • Every time a low sits on the front range (east of the mtns), and a high to the west, the pressures try to equalize and we get Chinooks in Colorado. 100mph winds just aren’t that unusual here, nor Wyoming. Probably Boulder, CO to Laramie, WY has the worst wind I’ve seen in the past 46 years here.

  20. I think it would have been foolish to not evacuate along the east coast of Florida.

    Remember, with Sandy there were a number of weather related situations that made it worse than one would expect from what was not officially a hurricane when it made landfall.

    So, too, at least so far, have the situations such as a slight path shift east and the change in the eye-wall lessened the projected effects of Matthew.

    As Ripley said, “Lucky, lucky, lucky”.

    Keep the tight eye-wall like it was over Haiti and move it 60 miles west, and no body would be laughing right now.

    • Dont You have concrete buildings with more than one level above ground?
      Is it more safe sitting in a car stacked in traffic jam?

      • “Is it more safe sitting in a car stacked in traffic jam?”
        Evacuation certainly is not risk free. The aftermath of Houston’s attempted evacuation ahead of Rita in 2005 was a sight to behold, and approximately 100 people died. Had the hurricane actually hit as predicted, it would have been devastating to the people trapped in their cars.

    • The consensus forecast path never at any point made landfall in a Florida. Sure, there were individual runs of individual models that made landfall, however the consensus forecast track never did. Additonally, this is not a large cyclone. Combine this with the fact that the storm trended as far west as I can remember for a tropical cyclone in recent memory and the strongest winds, rains, and hurricane effects being in the northeast side. This storm was all hype!

      • “The consensus” made me LOL. The earlier projected “cone of uncertainty” showed a more westerly and a more easterly possible track, with the westerly track showing landfall.

        Heck, as I write this, we can’t be certain it won’t jog west and make landfall yet.

        As I mentioned, factors in play have lessened the impact so far, just as Sandy’s influences made it worse than might have been expected.

  21. Here’s Robin, the Early Bird, on NOAA slanting the narrative:

    invisibleserfscollar.com/if-reality-is-ignored-or-disregarded-when-do-we-become-a-state-against-its-people

    I hope I got that url correct.
    ====================

      • The idea, with virtual reality digital curricula, is to trick the human mind, with visual cues, to see things that are not true, so the mind feels emotionally compelled to act to change the world as it is.

        Granted, an old article. She’s the Early Bird.
        =================

  22. At 8:58 the NHC has this posted re: Mathew.
    8:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 7
    Location: 28.9°N 80.3°W
    Moving: NNW at 13 mph
    Min pressure: 944 mb
    Max sustained: 120 mph

    Doesn’t seem to agree with ground sightings nor buoys.

  23. Anthony Watts:

    I hope you will do a wrap up of the storm after it is all over. I am especially interested in comparing the ground station reports vs. the reports that NOAA handed out to the public.

    I want to know if the public got the truth in the run up to the storm.

    ~ Mark

  24. The news has always tended to hype these storms, but the national hurricane center has always been a voice of reason. I dont know what has gotten into them lately but
    I will still give them the benifit of the doubt.

  25. Noted the attempts at diversion. Definition of hurricane is wind speed at “ground” level, simple.

  26. Just listened to Fla Gov Rick Scott’s report on assments so far and only power outages seem to be an issue – no road or property issues, traffic issues, etc. Power already restored to large portions of several counties. This is unwelcomed news for the Weather Channel, which immediately came back with “Doomsday Jim” Cantore, who was standing by a road, no rain, traffic passing along the street
    normally, none of which had any effect on the threats Cantore made about imminent disastrous
    condition. If they occur, Charlestion wil be the recipient, as they flooded badly from Hugo with storm surges of 6.8 feet. Mathew promises larger storm surges, however their estimates of wind speed have dropped significantly from 100MPH toless than 90 MPH at Charlerston. The Weather Channel (which they inform us, only operates for our benefit and safety) is hoping for photogenic flooding conditions.The Weather Channel is proudly trumpeting “One death” in Fla fro Matthew (doubtful). Wonder how that compares to the average traffic fatalities during normal times over the same period? Ditto for robberies and muggings. And for drownings by seashore visitors? The Weather Channel will never acknowledge any possible benefits of this “deadly monster.”

    • The Weather Channel is truly awful!! I have deleted them from my phone and iPad and block them and any of their products from my PC browser (so they can’t pop up unexpectedly on Facebook for example). I urge everyone to do the same. The more “hits” they get, the more money they make. Since I “cut the cord” from cable recently, I thankfully don’t have to pay Comcast directly for their drivel (and Jim Cantore’s travel budget).

      • I agree with you about the Weather Channel. Way too much time on their hands, way too many people to use and way too much money to spend. Paul Dellegatto out of Fox 13 in Tampa is my choice for hurricane coverage.

    • “The Weather Channel is proudly trumpeting “One death” in Fla fro Matthew”
      It was a cardiac arrest. Tragedy of course but I’m not sure how that is related in any way to Matthew.

      I recall hearing in the 1990’s when one of the earthquakes near L.A. actually had fewer deaths that day as there were no drive-by shootings during the earthquake! Not sure if that was an urban myth or not.

    • On my PC, copied and pasted the page into a file, then opened it with Excel, and sorted by Column I, descending. Sort put the highest windspeeds on top, after the ‘null entries’.

  27. What I find really disturbing is you can almost feel the alarmist crowd willing this storm to do some damage and cost lives, so they can say “we told you so”.

    • Precautionary Approach
      Wiki’ Excerpt: The principle is used by policy makers to justify discretionary decisions in situations where there is the possibility of harm from making a certain decision (e.g. taking a particular course of action) when extensive scientific knowledge on the matter is lacking. The principle implies that there is a social responsibility to protect the public from exposure to harm, when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk. These protections can be relaxed only if further scientific findings emerge that provide sound evidence that no harm will result.

      There’s no questioning Matthew’s potential for landfall nor the harm it could have caused yet the tendency to discard the quantifiable is disturbing.

      It’s obvious the media outlets believe a calm and informed approach is passé.

      • Playing with the approach and unintended consequences:
        So, for the 15-20% of West Palm Beach residents who decided to ride the storm out at home with a stockpile of “Happy Meals”, congrats – you managed to miss a speeding bullet.

        Was it logical? No, yet With the “Super Bowl of Doom” from the media, what Trusted source did they have to draw from to make an intelligent decision.

        Trust is key, without Trusted Science and hero practioners –

  28. The NW part of the eye wall passed directly over the Settlement Point, Bahamas station last night. While the NHC was saying that winds were at 140 mph, the station reported sustained winds of only 85 mph

  29. Abundance of caution -yeah I get that, and there is a real hurricane out there, but somehow all the fooforah is so similar in detail to the stuff we get daily from the CAGW crowd about weather in 2100. The models, the hype, the dire ‘worst ever’ end of times type narrative….With weather and climate these days, it’s a one story fits all situation.

    There is some data of an unintended kind that comes out of this, however. I’ve always said that the metrics projected by such as the IPCC can be discounted substantially (by half or more as calculated by Monckton) simply because it is not in their nature as alarmists or in their their standing orders to underestimate any dire situation. The narrative of hurricane specialists with the governments used to be that global warming did not appear to be a factor in hurricane frequency or strengths. This is no longer tolerated by their bosses. They have been charged with finding more alarmist results = report wind speed by aircraft and dont dwell on ground speeds. They therefore added, perhaps, 30% to w. speeds (IPCC isnt constrained by a real event so they can triple and more).

    Regarding the mechanics of the hurricane, as an engineer, it seems to me that a hurricane moving along the shore or at a shallow angle has asymmetric conditions re water depth and pulls itself back toward deeper water thereby tending to hold itself away from landfall. One at a more acute angle could easily make landfall. For this reason, I think all modeled tracks that unbendingly crossed into Florida and north of Florida as if behavior on land and sea were identical, should be summarily disregarded. I wonder if the actual south Atlantic coast hasnt been shaped by hurricanes of this kind. I am not a meteorologist so I suspect I will hear some flack about this.

    • I have thought about that shaping idea, too, especially when considering lower sea levels, when the contenental shelf was more exposed to erosion.

    • I wonder if the actual south Atlantic coast hasnt been shaped by hurricanes of this kind. I am not a meteorologist so I suspect I will hear some flack about this.

      Yes, the great curve up thru the carolinas is interesting.

  30. I don’t know if they got knocked out or NBDC took them offline but Trident Pier station at Canaveral peaked at 45knots/50mph. The offshore buoy had recorded higher but is now offline. I’ll go out on a limb and say the space port is OK.

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