Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #242

The Week That Was: 2016-09-24 (September 24, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Testing EPA’s Endangerment Finding – The Hot Spot: Advances in scientific knowledge are based on evidence – not on untested theories and untested mathematical models. The testing, often called hypothesis testing, can be lengthy and exhausting. For example, the theory of relativity, though virtually universally accepted, is still undergoing testing. Although over 35 years old, the concept that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause unprecedented and dangerous global warming has not been thoroughly tested and is highly questionable.

As explained in the February 6 TWTW, in his written testimony to the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology on February 2, John Christy of the University of Alabama in Huntsville submitted the results of 102 IPCC CIMP-5 Climate Model runs for the Global Bulk Atmospheric Temperature. (Surface to 50,000 feet (15,240 meters)). CIMP-5 is the latest version global climate models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC))

Further, Christy showed that the mathematical global climate models greatly overestimate atmospheric temperatures, where the greenhouse effect takes place. Such over-estimates make these models unsuitable for economic or energy policy. The only exception to Christy’s finding is the model from the Institute of Numerical Mathematics in Moscow. Interestingly, Russia is not curtailing its production of fossil fuels from the fear that it may cause global warming/climate change.

Using statistical analysis, three independent scientists, James Wallace, John Christy, and Joseph D’Aleo tested the hypothesis that there is a tropical hot spot, a pronounced warming trend over the tropics centered at about 10 kilometers, 33,000 feet.

The hot spot was termed the distinct human fingerprint of warming at the November 1995 meeting of the of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientific group in Madrid by John Houghton and Benjamin Santer, and was featured in the 1996 assessment report of the IPCC (AR-2). This was important for signing the international Kyoto Protocol to limit carbon dioxide emissions, unsuccessfully as it turned out. Also, the claimed human-caused hot spot is one of the three lines of evidence given by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to justify regulation of carbon dioxide emissions and the use of fossil fuels which cause them.

The new report, “On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ Research Report and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding” rejects the hypothesis that the tropical hot spot exists – regardless if the cause is human or natural. To do so, it analyzes 5 different datasets in the tropics dating from 1959 to 2015. These include balloon atmospheric data and, buoy and land surface data. As with surface data, balloon data is very limited – it includes a sliver of the atmosphere, but if the hot spot exists, the balloon data should capture it.

Critical to this analysis is that, according to the theory and to the claims by the IPCC and the EPA, the intensity of the proposed warming should increase with increasing altitude up to 10 km (33,000 feet). Again, this is not that the temperatures will increase with altitude (they diminish), but the warming trends will increase with altitude. Fundamental to their analysis, is that the researchers removed the changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns, using NOAA’s established Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Once the ENSO patterns were removed, there was no tropical hot spot, as others have suggested for years.

Also, the researchers made another intriguing observation. The long period of global cooling, from about 1940 to 1977, led some scientists to speculate that the earth was entering into a new ice age. But, in 1977 it suddenly stopped. At the time, no one could explain why. Subsequently, what is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was discovered. This involves long periods of alternative warming and/ cooling in various parts of the Pacific.

The researchers of this paper reported that between 1947 and 1976, there were 6 years of El Niño (warming) periods and 14 years of La Niña (cooling) periods. During the subsequent period, 1977 to 1998 (a big El Niño year), there were 10 El Niños (warming) periods 3 La Niñas (cooling) periods. Since 1998 to 2015, El Niños and La Niñas have been balanced at 7 each. We will have wait to see what will occur once the current big El Niño period is over.

The researchers call the 1977 shift in El Niño-La Niña frequency, the 1977 Pacific Climate Shift. These observations support the assertions by other researchers that the IPCC, and the EPA , have attributed to carbon dioxide a warming caused by natural variation.

In addition, the researchers note the similarity since 1950 of the Cumulative Solar Intensity with the Cumulative ENSO activity, giving a lead to possible causes of changing Pacific Ocean patterns – and to causes in recorded surface temperatures. The statistical netting out of the changing ENSO influence also netted out the influence of changing solar intensity.

The tropical hot spot, whatever the cause, and the scientific claims built around it, are not supported. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Quote of the Week. “Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. On the contrary, it makes crops and

forests grow faster.” S. Fred Singer

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Number of the Week: 4.3 Million Jobs

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Testing EPA’s Endangerment Finding – CO2: The IPCC and the EPA claim that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are the primary cause of recent global warming/climate change. Without such claims, there is no purpose for nations to agree to the latest UN effort to limit CO2 emissions (Paris Agreement), or to channel money into the newly established UN – controlled Green Climate Fund.

One must recall that there is no comprehensive surface temperature record that is global. The only global record is by satellites, with small limitations, with the data starting in December 1978. Various government agencies and the IPCC pretend that surface measurements are global. They are not, even though a few measurements started in the 1700s and the US was largely covered starting about 1880, the only country so covered.

Yet, based on these pretenses, the UN, the US administration, and the governments of many Western countries are attempting to frighten the public into accepting an agreement that will severely damage Western economies by severely limiting the use of fossil fuels. The report, “On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding”, challenges the claims that CO2 is responsible for recent warming.

Using the methodology partially described above, and more fully described in the report, the research team netted out the influence of the changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns from 13 datasets, using NOAA’s established Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). These datasets include both tropical and global readings, and include balloons, satellites, buoys, and land-based instrument data. They found there is no statistically significant impact on the 13-time series datasets analyzed from increasing CO2. If the report is correct, the UN Paris Agreement and the EPA Endangerment Finding have no empirical basis, thus no scientific basis. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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Testing EPA’s Endangerment Finding – Importance to US Policy: The discussion of the importance of the lines of evidence used by the EPA can be found in the Federal Register/Volume 74, No 239 / Tuesday, Dec 15, 2009/Rules and Regulations (page 66523)

“However, the attribution of most of the recent warming to anthropogenic activities is based on multiple lines of evidence. The first line of evidence arises from our basic physical understanding of the effects of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, natural factors, and other human impacts on the climate system. Greenhouse gas concentrations have indisputably increased and their radiative properties are well established. The second line of evidence arises from indirect, historical estimates of past climate changes that suggest that the changes in global surface temperature over the last several decades are unusual. The third line of evidence arises from the use of computer-based climate models to simulate the likely patterns of response of the climate system to different forcing mechanisms (both natural and anthropogenic). These models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are included in the simulations. Natural forcing alone cannot explain the observed warming. In fact, the assessment literature 27 indicates the sum of solar and volcanic forcing in the past half century would likely have produced cooling, not warming. Please see the relevant volume of the Response to Comments for more detailed responses.” (Boldface added)

The regulations go on to state “The Air Pollution Is Reasonably Anticipated To Endanger Both Public Health and Welfare”; thus, claiming the EPA has the power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. Of the greenhouse gases being regulated, only CO2 is significant. The other gases can be regulated under other provisions of the Clean Air Act, or their quantities are insignificant. Of course, the most important greenhouse gas is water vapor, which the EPA would have great difficulty in regulating.

Based on the new study, and other studies, contrary to the claims stated in the regulations, the understanding of 1) the physical effects of “changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, natural factors, and other human impacts on the climate system” are poorly understood; 2) any unusual nature of the recent rise in surface temperature is likely from change in land use and natural variation, not greenhouse gases; and 3) computer-based climate models have failed in predictions, thus are not evidence. The models simply do not capture natural variation, and likely misidentified natural variation as influence from carbon dioxide. Also, the claim that the sum of solar and volcanic forcing for the past half-century would have produced cooling is probably false.

There are numerous references to these types of “evidence” in other federal regulations and policy recommendations regarding CO2 and fossil fuels. They do not constitute credible scientific knowledge.

If the study, and similar studies, hold, the Paris Agreement, the Administration’s power plan, and similar efforts to control CO2 emissions are standing on a three-legged stool of evidence that is toppling over, if not collapsing. Note: As with the researchers, the peer-reviewers of this study are distinguished, independent scientists, not beholding to anyone or any organization. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, After Paris! and https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2009-12-15/pdf/E9-29537.pdf

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Federal Orders: Mr. Obama has ordered federal agencies to consider the impacts of climate when establishing a policy, including the development of national security-related doctrine, policies, and plans. “To achieve this, 20 Federal agencies and offices with climate science, intelligence analysis, and national security policy development missions and responsibilities will collaborate to ensure the best information on climate impacts is available to strengthen our national security.” Will they consider the report discussed above? See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.

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Quote of the Week: The quote this week was featured in an op-ed in the Washington Post by Michael “Hockey-stick” Mann and cartoonist Tom Toles. Apparently, quote was thought to justify the personal assaults in the article.

“Singer is the most prolific of the deniers-for-hire. Formerly a Cold War physicist and an environmental science professor at the University of Virginia, he left academia in 1990 to found a think tank, the Science and Environmental Policy Project, with a mission of debunking the science of ozone depletion, climate change, tobacco and other environmental and health threats. He has received considerable funding from corporate interests, including tobacco company Philip Morris, seed and pesticide company Monsanto and energy company Texaco. His many works include a 2009 report titled “Climate Change Reconsidered,” which concludes that “a warmer world will be a safer and healthier world for humans and wildlife alike.” The report has been dismissed as ‘fabricated nonsense.’”

No doubt, the authors consider the thousands of studies in the laboratory and the field showing increased atmospheric CO2 benefits green plants, thus agriculture and the environment to be “fabricated nonsense.”

The President of SEPP has written Fred Ryan, editor of the Post, a letter requesting the physical evidence, not hearsay, supporting the accusation: “He [Singer] has received considerable funding from corporate interests, including tobacco company Philip Morris, seed and pesticide company Monsanto and energy company Texaco.” Will a reply be forthcoming? See link under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

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Important Correction: Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, graciously corrected several poorly written sentences in the last TWTW. The sentences dealt with feeding seasons of the Arctic’s top predator, polar bears, and its chief prey, seals. The bears feed heavily in the late winter and spring when the ice is heavy, but not too thick, and the seals have few escape possibilities. The seals feed heavily in the summer when the Arctic has far less ice, the fish plentiful, and the seals difficult for bears to catch. TWTW appreciates that Susan Crockford made these important corrections. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.

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Number of the Week: 4.3 Million Jobs: A report by the Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that the energy revolution, the increase in oil and natural gas production due to hydraulic fracturing, created 4.3 million jobs in the US. Any report such as this is subject to minor challenges but the direction and magnitude are important. Also, the report estimates that the US economy would be $500 billion smaller, electricity prices 30% higher and motor fuels 40% higher. Natural gas prices would be 30% higher for residences and 90% for industry. The oil and gas revolution has been far more successful and long-lasting in boosting the economy than the $800 billion stimulus bill. Based on quick calculations, without these jobs, the official unemployment rate would be about 7.6% rather than 4.9%. See links under The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back

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NEWS YOU CAN USE:

 

Science: Is the Sun Rising?

New Science 26: The solar fall and the delay means David Evans’ predicted global cooling could be just around the corner

By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Sep 23, 2016

http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/new-science-26-the-solar-fall-and-lag-means-david-evans-model-predicts-cooling-is-just-around-the-corner/

“The notch-delay hypothesis predicts sustained and significant global cooling starting sometime from 2017 to 2022, of ~0.3 °C but perhaps milder.

“If the predicted cooling does not eventuate then the notch-delay hypothesis is false.”

Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

4 (Four) New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 1700s, 1800s

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 22, 2016

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/22/4-new-papers-link-solar-activity-natural-ocean-cycles-to-climate-and-find-warmer-temps-during-1700s-1800s/#sthash.PqaOPDwV.dpbs

Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies

*by Javier, Climate Etc. Sep 20, 2016

https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/20/impact-of-the-2400-yr-solar-cycle-on-climate-and-human-societies/#more-22159

[SEPP Comment: Long post.]

Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt

Documents show Eric Schneiderman’s #ExxonKnew coalition crumbling from within

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 23, 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/23/documents-show-eric-schneidermans-exxonknew-coalition-crumbling-from-within/

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013

https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf

Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014

http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Challenging the Orthodoxy

The most important assumption in EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding has been conclusively invalidated

By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Sep 18, 2016

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/the_most_important_assumption_in_epas_co2_endangerment_finding_has_been_con/

Link to Abridged Research Report: “On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’ and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding”

By James Wallace, John Christy, and Joseph D’Aleo Aug 2016

https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/wwww-ths-rr-091716.pdf

Prepared Testimony to House Committee on Science, Space & Technology

By John Christy, UAH, Feb 2, 2016

https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-114-SY-WState-JChristy-20160202.pdf

New Report Definitively Shows UN CAGW Hypothesis and IPCC Reports Invalid and Thus CPP and Paris Treaty Total Wastes

By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 21, 2016 [Revised Sep 23, 2016]

http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2958

[SEPP Comment: In the additional comments, the acronym MEI is for NOAA’s Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index and D-W for Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation.]

The “Science” Underlying Climate Alarmism Turns Up Missing

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 19, 2016

http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2016/9/19/what-exactly-is-the-science-underlying-climate-alarmism

Remembering Madrid ’95: A Meeting that Changed the World

By Bernard Lewin, Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science, Nov 21, 2016

https://enthusiasmscepticismscience.wordpress.com/2015/11/21/remembering-madrid-95-a-meeting-that-changed-the-world-2/

IPCC ‘s Bogus Evidence for Global Warming

By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Nov 12, 2013

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2013/11/ipcc_s_bogus_evidence_for_global_warming.html

Defending the Orthodoxy

An Open Letter Regarding Climate Change From Concerned Members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences

By Staff Writers, Responsible Scientists.org, Sep 2, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

http://responsiblescientists.org/

[SEPP Comment: No evidence given supporting the usual claim. The organizers are not identified on the web site. The web site of Climate Science Rapid Response Team identifies Dr. John Abraham, Prof. Scott Mandia, Professor Michael Ashley and Dr. Jan Dash; http://www.climaterapidresponse.org/matchmakers.php]

Obama Orders Consideration of Climate Change in National Security Planning

By Natalie Johnson, Washington Free Beacon, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/obama-orders-consideration-climate-change-national-security-planning/

White House Release: FACT SHEET: President Obama Takes A Historic Step To Address The National Security Implications Of Climate Change

By Staff Writers, Office of the Press Secretary, Sep 21, 2016

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/21/fact-sheet-president-obama-takes-historic-step-address-national-security

Presidential Memorandum — Climate Change and National Security

Press Release, The White House, Sep 21, 2016

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/21/presidential-memorandum-climate-change-and-national-security

Government energy policy wonk [Secretary of Energy] predicts U.S. will have climate laws by end of decade

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 19, 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/19/government-energy-policy-wonk-predicts-u-s-will-have-climate-laws-by-end-of-decade/

Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Products

By Staff Writers, IPCC, for 44th session, Bangkok, 17-20 October 2016

http://www.ipcc.ch/apps/eventmanager/documents/40/210920161043-INF.6-Outline1.5.pdf

The United Nations to bring the Paris climate agreement into force early

By Timmons Roberts and Guy Edwards, Brookings, Sep 20, 2016

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2016/09/20/the-united-nations-to-bring-the-paris-climate-agreement-into-force-early/?

Want to Slow Climate Change? Stop Having Babies

The alternative? “Give up your toys.”

By Eric Roston, Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-23/want-to-slow-climate-change-stop-having-babies-bioethicist-travis-rieder-says

Questioning the Orthodoxy

The “Alice-in-Wonderland” consensus position

By Staff Writer, Trust, yet verify, Sep 22, 2016

https://trustyetverify.wordpress.com/2016/09/22/the-alice-in-wonderland-consensus-position/

[SEPP Comment: Demolishing the statement: “the consensus position that global warming is happening, is human caused, and presents a global problem is shared by more than 95 % of domain experts and more than 95 % of relevant articles in the peer-reviewed literature (Anderegg et al. 2010; Cook et al. 2013, 2016; Doran and Zimmerman 2009; Oreskes 2004; Shwed and Bearman 2010).”]

You Ought to Have a Look: How Climate Alarm Becomes a Self-promulgating Collective Belief

By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, Sep 16, 2016

http://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-how-climate-alarm-becomes-self-promulgating-collective-belief?utm_content=buffera395b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

German Geologist Thinks Policymakers Need To Take Geology 101 Before Entering Climate Discussion

Land area gains despite sea level rise: coastal areas have grown 13,500 sq km over past 30 years

By geologist Dr. Sebastian Luning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt. (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks zone, Sep 21, 2016

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/21/german-geologist-thinks-policymakers-need-to-take-geology-101-before-entering-climate-discussion/#sthash.r8dkEKbW.dpbs

Polar bears seldom catch seals they stalk in summer – it’s why they fast

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 23, 2016

https://polarbearscience.com/2016/09/23/polar-bears-seldom-catch-seals-they-stalk-in-summer-its-why-they-fast/

After Paris!

3 Ways Trump Could Abandon the Paris Climate Pact

By John Upton, Climate Central, Sep 19, 2016

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/trump-could-abandon-paris-climate-agreement-20711

Australia needs a Paris Plebiscite

By Viv Forbes, Australian Climate Sceptics, Sep 19, 2016

http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2016/09/australia-needs-paris-plebiscite.html

Hypernumeracy

By William Briggs, His Blog, Sep 23, 2016

http://wmbriggs.com/post/19747/

[SEPP Comment: The art of putting numbers on opinions or other vague concepts, then pretending its science.]

Let the Arguments Begin

By Doug Domenech, Real Clear Energy, Sep 19, 2016

http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2016/09/19/let_the_arguments_begin_109256.html

Paris Climate Deal Inches Closer to an Iota of Relevance

By staff Writers, American Interest, Sep 21, 2016

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/09/21/paris-climate-deal-inches-closer-to-an-iota-of-relevance/

The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back

Report: US Would Have Bled 4.5 Mil Jobs Were It Not For The Oil Revolution

By Chris White, Daily Caller, Sep 22, 2016

http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/22/report-us-would-have-bled-4-5-mil-jobs-were-it-not-for-the-oil-revolution/

Link to press release of report: Second Energy Accountability Series Report Quantifies Economic Impact of Energy Revolution

By Staff Writers, Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Accessed Sep 23, 2016

http://www.energyxxi.org/new-energy-institute-report-examines-what-america-would-look-if-energy-renaissance-never-happened

Link to report: WHAT IF… America’s Energy Renaissance Never Actually Happened?

By Staff Writers, Institute for 21st Century Energy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Accessed Sep 23, 2016

http://www.energyxxi.org/sites/default/themes/bricktheme/pdfs/er-fullreport-16.pdf

Obama’s Africa Power Plan Falls Short, Leaving Continent In Dark

By Toluse Olorunnipa and Tope Alake, Bloomberg, Sep 21, 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-21/africa-left-in-dark-as-9-7-billion-obama-power-plan-falls-short

The EPA’s “Power Plan” Is An Unlawful Power Grab

By Marlow Lewis, Daily Caller, Sep 23, 2016

http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/23/the-epas-power-plan-is-an-unlawful-power-grab/

Seeking a Common Ground

Modeling Climate Change Policy Decisions Using a Probability Tree

Guest essay by Michael Cochrane, WUWT, Sep 21, 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/21/modeling-climate-change-policy-decisions-using-a-probability-tree/

Wall Street Journal Lurches Left

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 23, 2016

https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/09/23/wall-street-journal-lurches-left/

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Five Decades of Shoreline Change on Diego Garcia Atoll

Purkis, S.J., Gardiner, R., Johnston, M.W. and Sheppard, C.R.C. 2016. A half-century of coastline change in Diego Garcia – The largest atoll island in the Chagos. Geomorphology 261: 282-298. Sep 22, 2016

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/sep/a17.php

Changes in Diurnal Temperature Range on the Tibetan Plateau

You, Q., Min, J., Jiao, Y., Sillanpaa, M. and Kang, S. 2016. Observed trend of diurnal temperature range in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades. International Journal of Climatology 36: 2633-2643. Sep 22, 2016

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/sep/a16.php

Modelling the Arabian Sea SST Evolution from Spring to Summer

Sayantani, O., Gnanaseelan, C., Chowdary, J.S., Parekh, A. and Rahul, S. 2016. Arabian Sea SST evolution during spring to summer transition period and the associated processes in coupled climate models. International Journal of Climatology 36: 2541-2554. Sep 21, 2016

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V19/sep/a15.php

Measurement Issues — Surface

Removing The 1940’s Blip

By Tony Heller, Real Science, Sep 23,2016

http://realclimatescience.com/2016/09/removing-the-1940s-blip/

NOAA’s Congo Fraud

By Tony Heller, Real Science, Sep 23,2016

http://realclimatescience.com/2016/09/noaas-congo-fraud/

[SEPP Comment: More data manipulation by NOAA – this time the Congo.]

Changing Weather

Floods Not Increasing Across the U.S.

By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, Cato, Sep 21, 2016

http://www.cato.org/blog/floods-not-increasing-across-us

Spin Cycle: Attributing Louisiana Floods to Global Warming

By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, Cato, Sep 20, 2016

http://www.cato.org/blog/spin-cycle-attributing-louisiana-floods-global-warming

Today’s weather is hardly unique: Opposing view

Glib attributions of recent weather (as opposed to ‘climate’) phenomena are more wishful than reality.

By Patrick J. Michaels, USA Today, Sep 8, 2016

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/08/weather-science-cato-patrick-michaels-editorials-debates/90092340/

Link to study: Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the US Gulf coast

By Shao, Xian, Deim, Goidel, and Lin, International Journal of Climatology, June 20, 2016

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4805/full

Changing Climate

Westerly winds have blown across central Asia for at least 42 million years

By Staff Writers, Seattle WA (SPX), Sep 15, 2016

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Westerly_winds_have_blown_across_central_Asia_for_at_least_42_million_years_999.html

“During the Eocene, the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Mountains were much lower, temperatures were hot, new mammal species were rapidly emerging, and Earth’s atmosphere contained three to four times more carbon dioxide than it does today.”

[SEPP Comment: Devastates arguments that current climate change is disastrous. In such latitudes, westerly winds are from the west.]

Changing Seas

Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise?†

By Thompson, Hamlington, Landerer & Adhikari, Geophysical Research, Sep 19, 2016

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070552/abstract;jsessionid=D121D803B06BC0A5491E9DE207CD3B5E.f02t04

“The analyzed records have an average 20th century rate of approximately 1.6 mm/yr, but based on the locations of these gauges, we show the simple average underestimates the 20th century global mean rate by 0.1  ±  0.2 mm/yr.”

[SEPP Comment: The precision is doubtful.]

Big headline climate funds, all puff, no money — Red tape strangles Pacific Islands. No one cares.

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2016

http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/big-headline-climate-funds-all-puff-no-money-red-tape-strangles-pacific-islands-no-one-cares/

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

A Ten-Year Hiatus In Arctic Ice Decline?

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Sep 22, 2016

http://www.thegwpf.com/a-ten-year-hiatus-in-arctic-ice-decline/

[SEPP Comment: Issues from not carefully looking at the data.]

Arctic ice – a historical viewpoint

Guest essay by Roger Graves, WUWT, Sep 23, 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/23/arctic-ice-a-historical-viewpoint/

Is the Arctic sea ice ‘spiral of death’ dead?

By Greg Goodman, Climate Etc. Sep 18, 2016

https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/18/is-the-arctic-sea-ice-spiral-of-death-dead/#more-22151

NASA’s IceBridge Mission Checks Summer Melt at Greenland Ice Sheet

By Kacey Deamer, Live Science, Sep 15, 2016

http://www.livescience.com/56102-nasa-icebridge-surveys-greenland-ice-sheet.html

More Arctic Records Being Set

By Tony Heller Real Science, Sep 23, 2016

http://realclimatescience.com/2016/09/more-arctic-records-being-set/

Changing Earth

Long Invisible, Research Shows Volcanic CO2 Levels Are Staggering (Op-Ed)

By Robin Wylie, University College London, Live Science, Oct 15, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]

http://www.livescience.com/40451-volcanic-co2-levels-are-staggering.html

World’s oldest rock offers insights into early continental crust formation

By Brooks Hays, Edmonton, Alberta (UPI), Sep 19, 2016

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Worlds_oldest_rock_offers_insights_into_early_continental_crust_formation_999.html

Acidic Waters

Could Massive White Cliffs Be Forming Beneath Antarctica’s Ocean?

By Tia Ghose, Live Science, Sep 16, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

http://www.livescience.com/56120-how-the-white-cliffs-of-dover-formed.html

Link to paper: Factors regulating the Great Calcite Belt in the Southern Ocean and its biogeochemical significance

By William Balch, et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Aug 10, 2016

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GB005414/abstract

[SEPP Comment: Seems to contradict the claims of the alarmists that the oceans are becoming acidic!]

Lowering Standards

Left-Brained Science

By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Sep 19, 2016

http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2016/09/left-brained-science/

The BBC On Thick Ice Again…

By Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, Via GWPF, Sep 18, 2016

http://www.thegwpf.com/the-bbc-on-thick-ice-again/

[SEPP Comment: Why don’t these adventurers do what early explores did when frozen in – wait out the winter? On one such voyage, the explorers sank their boat, rather than have it crushed by the ice, then re-surfaced it, upon the spring thaw.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Southeast Asian haze crisis killed over 100,000: study

By Sam Reeves, Jakarta (AFP), Sept 19, 2016

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Southeat_Asian_haze_crisis_killed_over_100000_study_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Based on calculations of some 90,000 early deaths from un-tested models, but few bodies.]

Eastern forests use up nitrogen in soil during earlier, greener springs

By Staff Writers, Frostburg MD (SPX), Sep 15, 2016

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Eastern_forests_use_up_nitrogen_in_soil_during_earlier_greener_springs_999.html

Polar bears losing crucial sea ice: study

By Maritte Le Roux, Paris (AFP), Sept 14, 2016

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Polar_bears_losing_crucial_sea_ice_study_999.html

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Greenland Ice Loss 40 Trillion Pounds Bigger Than Thought

By Seth Borenstein, AP science writer, ABC, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/greenland-ice-loss-40-trillion-pounds-bigger-thought-42256725

[SEPP Comment: Doubtful, even the nearest trillion pounds can be measured. Will they try grams next – really big numbers?]

L.A. Times climate science denial article instead shows the Times clearly denying well established climate science

By Guest Blogger, WUWT, Sep 19, 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/19/l-a-times-climate-science-denial-article-instead-shows-the-times-clearly-denying-well-established-climate-science/

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Deniers club: Meet the people clouding the climate change debate

They’ve stalled action with a campaign of deliberate misinformation.

By Michael Mann and Tom Toles, The Washington Post, Sep 16, 2016

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/09/16/deniers-club-meet-the-people-clouding-the-climate-change-debate/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.6e44028e3a48

“He [Singer] has received considerable funding from corporate interests, including tobacco company Philip Morris, seed and pesticide company Monsanto and energy company Texaco.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

UNESCO: We Must Redesign Global Literacy Programmes to Incorporate our Climate Propaganda

Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 18, 2016

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/18/unesco-we-must-redesign-global-literacy-programmes-to-incorporate-our-climate-propaganda/

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change

By Staff Writers, National Intelligence Council, Aug 10, 2016 [H/t Cooler Heads]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/documents/nic-white-paper-climate-change.pdf

Questioning European Green

Alarm… Major German Grid Operator Announces Whopping 80% Higher Grid Fees! “Power To Be More Expensive”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 23, 2016

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/23/alarm-major-german-grid-operator-announces-whopping-80-higher-grid-fees-power-to-be-more-expensive/#sthash.PuVBhylt.dpbs

More Headaches Than Power: Germany’s Wind Energy Fails To Deliver! “Energiewende Finished?”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 18, 2016

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/18/more-headaches-than-power-germanys-wind-energy-fails-to-deliver-energiewende-finished/#sthash.Up2d6Nlf.dpbs

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

China clean energy generators face $9 bln subsidy shortfall -official

By Staff Writers, Reuters, Sep 14, 2016 [H/t GWPF]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/china-solar-idUKL3N1BQ2CF

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Top EPA Official Admitted His Yahoo Email Was A ‘Channel’ For ‘Offline Chats’ With Environmentalists

By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Sep 20, 2016

http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/20/top-epa-official-admitted-his-yahoo-email-was-a-channel-for-offline-chats-with-environmentalists/

Link to report: Ex Parte Communications & Outsourcing EPA’S “Agency Expertise”: The Case for Vacating EPA’s GHG Rules Due To an Incomplete Docket & Abandonment of any “Deference” Based on a Presumption of Expertise or Impartialty.

By Christopher Horner, E&E Legal Institute, Sep 20 2016

http://eelegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/FINAL-9.20.16-Ex-Parte-and-Deference-Report-Goo-Yahoo-copy1.pdf

Energy Issues – Non-US

Powering Countries, Empowering People: A Case Study (Part 3 of 3)

By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Sep 22, 2016

https://www.masterresource.org/developing-countries/powering-countries-empowering-people-part-3/

Killing the Energy Goose

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 17, 2016

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/09/17/killing-the-energy-goose/

Emissions reductions and world energy demand growth

By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Sep 21, 2016

http://euanmearns.com/emissions-reductions-and-world-energy-demand-growth/#more-15278

[SEPP Comment: A global permanent depression?]

Russia bases economic forecast on $40 oil

A modest growth trajectory for next year lowered by almost a full percentage point.

By Daniel J. Graeber, UPI, Sep 16, 2016

http://www.upi.com/Russia-bases-economic-forecast-on-40-oil/6381474028236/?spt=su&or=btn_tw

Link to press release: The Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate from 10.50 to 10.00% p.a

By Staff Writers, Bank of Russia, Sep 16, 2016

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/pr.aspx?file=16092016_132949eng_keyrate2016-09-16T12_57_49.htm

“This forecast is based on the conservative assumptions of sluggish growth in global economy, average annual oil price staying around $40 per barrel and persistent structural constraints for the Russian economic development.”

Coupon-Clipping Saudi Style

By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Sep 23, 2016

http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2016/09/23/coupon-clipping_saudi_style_109260.html

[SEPP Comment: Is this why the Democratic Party officially opposes hydraulic fracturing, which brought down the price of oil?]

Canadian First Nations, U.S. tribes form alliance to stop oil pipelines

Agreement signed in Montreal, Vancouver on Thursday

By Staff Writers, Thomson Reuters, Sep 22, 2016

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-vancouver-indigenous-oil-sands-1.3774444

Energy Issues — US

An Imminent Threat For Oil Prices? DUC Count: 5031 And Counting

By Staff Writers, Oil Price.com, Sep 16, 2016

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/An-Imminent-Threat-For-Oil-Prices-DUC-Count-5031-And-Counting.html

[SEPP Comment: Drilled, uncompleted wells (DUC) in the US declining very slowly since February 2016 (except for the Permian basin where drilling continues)]

Is The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Necessary?

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 20, 2016

https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2016/09/20/is-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-necessary/

Washington’s Control of Energy

Appeals court freezes construction in contested area

By Ellen M. Gilmer, E&E reporter, Sep 16, 2016

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060042991

[SEPP Comment: The 20-mile envelope where construction was banned includes a “potential grave area.”]

Obama Administration Violates Judicial Independence in Dakota Pipeline Case

By William Yeatman, CEI, Sep 20, 2016

https://cei.org/blog/obama-administration-violates-judicial-independence-dakota-pipeline-case

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Scotland To Receive First Shipment Of Gas From [US] Fracking

By Zainab Calcuttawala, Oil Price.com, Sep 22, 2016

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Scotland-To-Receive-First-Shipment-Of-Gas-From-Fracking.html

Return of King Coal?

China and Japan, Two Asian Economic Powerhouses, are Still Building Coal Plants

By Staff Writers, IER, Sep 20, 2016

http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/china-japan-two-asian-economic-power-houses-still-building-coal-plants/

China’s Major Coal Producers Start Raising Output: Media

By Staff Writers, Reuters, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t GWPF]

http://jakartaglobe.beritasatu.com/international/chinas-major-coal-producers-start-raising-output-media/

[SEPP Comment: The administration may pretend it is not occurring, but readers of the Jakarta Globe know better.]

First Balkans private power plant boosts coal dependence

By Maja Zuvela, Reuters, Sep 20, 2016

http://www.reuters.com/article/bosnia-energy-idUSL8N1BV3AA

[SEPP Comment: To be financed and built by Chinese organizations.]

Nuclear Energy and Fears

IAEA Sees Global Nuclear Power Capacity Growing Through 2030

Press Release, IAEA, Sep 23, 2016

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/iaea-sees-global-nuclear-power-capacity-growing-through-2030

Link to report: Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050

By Staff Writers, IAEA, 2016

http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS-1-36Web-28008110.pdf

Hinkley Point Set To Cost £48.9 Billion In Subsidies

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 21, 2016

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/09/21/hinkley-point-set-to-cost-48-9-billion-in-subsidies/

Let’s ditch Hinkley Point and HS2 to get more bang for our bucks

By Liam Halligan, Telegraph, UK, Sep 17, 2016

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/17/lets-ditch-hinkley-point-and-hs2-to-get-more-bang-for-our-bucks/

[SEPP Comment: HS2 is the proposed high-speed rail in the UK.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Apple’s secret solar plant in Arizona could power 12,500 homes

By Ryan Randazzo, Arizona Republic, Sep 21, 2016

http://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/energy/2016/09/20/apples-secret-solar-plant-pinal-county-unveiled/90741276/

“The Bonnybrooke solar plant has a capacity of 50 megawatts. That amount of capacity could supply about 12,500 homes at once, when the sun is shining on the solar panels.” – and overhead.

[SEPP Comment: Secret deals with the local politicians? Allocation of electricity during the two rainy seasons will be interesting. Diesel back-up?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

US hydropower: the potential for converting non-powered dams

By Staff Writers, Power Technology, Sep 20, 2016

http://www.power-technology.com/features/featureus-hydropower-the-potential-for-converting-non-powered-dams-4989938/

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

UK government cuts electric car subsidies by half, sales mysteriously fall 75%

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2016

http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/uk-government-cuts-electric-car-subsidies-by-half-sales-mysteriously-fall-75/

[SEPP Comment: The US could eliminate direct oil and gas “subsidies” with little impact. What would happen with the elimination of solar and wind subsidies and mandates?]

Carbon Schemes

The Carbon Capture and Storage saga

By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 19, 2016

http://scientific-alliance.org/node/1015

California Dreaming

Did a California Utility Cook Data?

By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Sep 20, 2016

http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2016/09/20/did_pg__e_cook_the_data_109257.html

Health, Energy, and Climate

Nothing to see here: Southeast Asia flummoxed by haze study

By Stephen Wright, AP, Sep 21, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nothing-see-southeast-asia-flummoxed-085945257.html

Environmental Industry

Green Bullies’ Distortions Are Putting Businesses In The Red: A Call For Accountability

By Steve Forbes, IBD, Sep 16, 2016

http://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/green-bullies-distortions-are-putting-businesses-in-the-red-a-call-for-accountability/

Other Scientific News

Academic Absurdity of the Week: Fake Peer Reviews

By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Sep 22, 2016

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/09/academic-absurdity-of-the-week-fake-peer-reviews.php

The Inevitable Evolution of Bad Science

A simulation shows how the incentives of modern academia naturally select for weaker and less reliable results.

By Ed Young, The Atlantic, Sep 21, 2016

http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/09/the-inevitable-evolution-of-bad-science/500609/

Link to paper: The natural selection of bad science

By Paul E. Smaldino, Richard McElreath, Royal Society Open Science, Sep 21, 2016

http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/3/9/160384

Other News that May Be of Interest

Scientists published climate research under fake names. Then they were caught.

By Ben Guarino, Washington Post, Sep 19, 2016 [H/t Clyde Spencer]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/09/19/scientists-published-climate-research-under-fake-names-then-they-were-caught/

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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

Study: Largest marine species most likely to be wiped out by humans

By Brooks Hays, Palo Alto, Calif. (UPI), Sep 14, 2016

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Study_Largest_marine_species_most_likely_to_be_wiped_out_by_humans_999.html

Urgent warning!

By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Sep 20, 2016

http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/6908

As the heat increases, our lakes and rivers will dry up to a great extent, and will contain hardly any water except during the rainy season, when they will be temporarily swelled to enormous proportions.

We shall have earthquakes of great size and strength, and hitherto peaceful mountains, finding that they’re in tropical regions, will break out as volcanoes….

The heat will be so great that, except in the extreme northern and southern parts of the continent, the people of the United States will lose their energy and become as lazy and listless as are now the people of Panama.

They will spend their time lying in hammocks and will take little interest in politics, although from time to time they may arouse theselves sufficiently to indulge in a brief revolution after the present South American pattern.

New York Times, 19 Nov 1881 (warming caused by tilting of the Earth’s axis)

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ARTICLES:

1. Ports Can Cut Diesel-Engine Emissions by Replacing Equipment, EPA Report Says

New research also backs improvements in cargo-handling operations

By Erica Phillips, WSJ, Sep 22, 2016

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ports-can-cut-diesel-engine-emissions-by-replacing-equipment-epa-report-says-1474580446

[SEPP Comment: No link to study]

SUMMARY: According to the report the air around major ports can be improved by replacing diesel engines older than 10 years with new ones that give off less particle-matter emissions. Other than fewer particles health benefits are not clear.

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2. SEC Probes Exxon Over Accounting for Climate Change

Probe also examines company’s practice of not writing down the value of oil and gas reserves

By Bradley Olson and Aruna Viswanatha, WSJ, Sep 20, 2016

http://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-investigating-exxon-on-valuing-of-assets-accounting-practices-1474393593

SUMMARY: “The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating how Exxon Mobil Corp. values its assets in a world of increasing climate-change regulations, a probe that could have far-reaching consequences for the oil and gas industry.

 

“The SEC sought information and documents in August from Exxon and the company’s auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, according to people familiar with the matter. The federal agency has been receiving documents the company submitted as part of a continuing probe into similar issues begun last year by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, the people said.

 

“The SEC’s probe is homing in on how Exxon calculates the impact to its business from the world’s mounting response to climate change, including what figures the company uses to account for the future costs of complying with regulations to curb greenhouse gases as it evaluates the economic viability of its projects.

 

“The decision to step into an Exxon investigation and seek climate-related information represents a moment in the effort to take climate change more seriously in the financial community, said Andrew Logan, director of the oil and gas program at Ceres, a Boston-based advocacy organization that has pushed for more carbon-related disclosure from companies.”

[SEPP Comment: Does the SEC now believe that in evaluating assets, companies should take into account unresolved political issues? How about handicapping elections?]

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3. Former CIA Chief Cites Grid Vulnerability to EMP Attack

A nuclear device detonated at orbit above the U.S. could take out the electric grid, said R. James Woolsey

By Kim Nash, WSJ, Sep 21, 2016

http://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2016/09/21/former-cia-chief-cites-grid-vulnerability-to-emp-attack/

SUMMARY: “The U.S. is not doing enough to guard against attacks on critical infrastructure at the hands of rogue nations, said former Central Intelligence Agency Director R. James Woolsey at a cybersecurity conference here Wednesday.

“Combative states such as North Korea and Iran could detonate a nuclear device in orbit above the U.S., unleashing an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, capable of knocking out the electric grid, Mr. Woolsey said in an interview with CIO Journal at the Cyber Security Summit sponsored in part by Nation-E, a technology security company.

“Traditional policies of deterrence are ineffective against such “malevolent threats” because for these actors, “death is desirable rather than shunned,” said Mr. Woolsey, who served as CIA director for two years during the Clinton Administration.

“Electricity companies and the Obama Administration “haven’t done much” to counter such threats, he said, in part because there is no clear remedy and experiments could be expensive and ineffective.”

This may become a campaign issue, because Mr Woolsey signed on to the Trump campaign.

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25 thoughts on “Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #242

  1. News from Melbourne Australia
    Melbourne Age (Fairfax Media) in its Arts section today Monday 26had a favourable review of a play entitled “Kill the Climate Deniers”
    Cant imagine that paper commenting favourably let alone publish news of a play
    entitled say:-
    “Kill the climate alarmists”
    Or
    “Kill Muslims”
    Not that I am suggesting they should
    Its the disgusting double standard I reject

  2. “The third line of evidence arises from the use of computer-based climate models”

    How does a computer model get to be evidence of anything but the assumptions and inputs selected by the modelers? The inputs might be evidence, but they have to evealutted separately from the use the modeler makes of them.

  3. New Science 26: The solar fall and the delay means David Evans’ predicted global cooling could be just around the corner

    There was no ‘solar fall’ in 2004:

    • Dr. Svalgaard
      Am I correct in saying that in the recent months you suggested that SC25 (based on the polar fields peak theory) will be at least as high as SC24 or even a bit higher?

      It looks to me that the current peak of the polar field is qualitatively different to the previous peaks. In the previous cycles the field hovered about the peak value for at least 3 or more years, allowing accumulating of SS leftovers, while the current peak is a year or less at the levels of the one in the SC23.

      Perhaps in one year or two, when the SC24 is close to its minimum, averaging previous 3-4 years of the PF values may give a safer prediction?

      • In the last few months the PF’s intensity has unexpectedly lost about 25%, a prolong recovery is required if your prediction is to come true. Average of the last 18 months if held for another 18 months would suggest (by your theory) the SC25 peak in range of 40-50 in the old numbers. Surprisingly (or may be not) this is exactly what my extrapolation proposes too.
        Time will tell, but if comes to being, the two methods would agree again.

      • No, it has not. The reason for the apparent decrease is the asymmetry between North and South. The South pole in August-October turns away from view so the N minus S decreases. The ‘real’ polar fields is still increasing. And it is not unexpected. Back in 2003-2004 similar large swings were observed for the same reason.

      • It is not correct to say that the last 18 months average is what to use. We are still 3-4 years away from solar minimum, so it is only from now on that we can begin to use the dipole moment. It seems to me that your ‘prediction’ [too big a word] has already failed in amplitude and timing. You will, of course, never, ever admit that.

      • I don’t do any prediction. I devised three equations and that’s it (a. for periodicity-not timing, b. general amplitude envelope and c .notable anomalies – Maunder, Dalton, 1910s, SC20 etc) each one for one and only one specific purpose.
        I suppose we have to wait for number of your gradual ‘corrections’ rather than an outright retraction in 2-3 years time. I suppose the hat-eating has gone out of fashion, are you any good at baking ‘humble pies’?

      • I devised three equations and that’s it
        And when your prediction [err.. extrapolation] fails for cycle 25, you’ll probably have to devise a fourth equation, “for that specific purpose”. And so on, indefinitely..

      • You couldn’t be more wrong, the low SC25 & SC26 are well taken care of by both the amplitude envelope and the anomaly formulae.
        Predictions are mugs’ game.
        I devised a ‘three component mathematical model’ for solar activity guided by the the logic that says ‘the sun is the principal part of a system’ not an isolated aimlessly wandering star.
        Remember Einstein said ‘Mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas’; mind you he wasn’t terribly brilliant at it, had someone or another to help out in adapting the Maxwell’s equations (real pain) to do the job he needed done.

      • You couldn’t be more wrong
        As I said, you’ll never, ever admit to being wrong.
        It is a scientists prerogative to be wrong. Pseudo-science is never wrong – to wit: your comments.

  4. The skeptics, while demonstrating that the climate consensus is not based on science, is failing to address that the climate consensus true believers don’t care about the science. This makes for a tough discussion.

  5. Excellent piece, as usual, Mr. Watts! Now all that need be done is to get this to the courts hearing several climate related cases, if they even care about reasonable doubt.

  6. ‘These models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are included in the simulations. Natural forcing alone cannot explain the observed warming.’

    Middle school science fair junk. “We can’t figure it out, so it must be this.” Argumentum ad ignorantium.

  7. Susan Crockford may well have corrected her sentence, detailing that (polar) “bears feed heavily in the late winter and spring when the ice is heavy, but not too thick, and the seals have few escape possibilities. The seals feed heavily in the summer when the Arctic has far less ice, the fish plentiful, and the seals difficult for bears to catch.”

    But those periods are being affected by early sea ice melt….

    A study published in the journal The Cryosphere reveals that early sea ice melt has consistently been happening across all polar bear regions in the arctic.

    http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/2027/2016/

    “These spring and fall transitions bound the period when there is good ice habitat available for bears to feed. Those periods are also tied to the breeding season when bears find mates, and when females come out of their maternity dens with very small cubs and haven’t eaten for months,” said co-author Kristin Laidre of the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center.

  8. ” Since 1998 to 2015, El Niños and La Niñas have been balanced at 7 each.”

    14 events in 17 years? Is this a typo?

  9. I suggest that the reason the hot spot is missing is because the logic that asserts it to be the signature of GHG heating is incorrect. This logic seems to assume that the mechanism of GHG surface heating is that GHG’s heat the O2 and N2 in the atmosphere, which then heats the surface and that a W/m^2 high up in the atmosphere where temperatures are lower will have a larger impact on the temperature than it would at the surface owing to the T^4 relationship between power and temperature.

    Of course, the kinetic temperature of O2/N2 in the atmosphere is irrelevant to the radiative balance of the planet since only EM energy can leave the planet, while the kinetic energy of molecules in motion can not.

    Radiative physics suggests that GHG’s manifest a radiant effect that heats the surface directly with photons of energy returned to the surface and that the warmed surface then heats the atmosphere whose temperature profile is dictated by a lapse rate set by gravity.

  10. Again it is clear that science does not have any base which can provide assurance on the true cause of the event. Thus, in this area, it is based on some forecasts and imaginary data are derived from computer models.
    Climate change not only on our planet, but also all the planets in our solar system, are taking place under the influence of the mutual relations of the planets and the sun. The planets in their positions around the sun, act upon one another as it is stipulated by an “order” of the sun. I have some clues about the true causes of climate change on Earth, but do not possess sufficient astronomical data about the planets, nor do I have such a strong program that it agreed to a process of unfolding events. This could be achieved only with the help of some powerful organizations such as NASA or the US Government. But, unfortunately, none of them does not want to hear this, because they imagined themselves that they are the creators of everything in the universe. And this does not prove confirmed in many discussions, can be regarded as nebulous and looming ones who do not want to understand that the impact of the huge planet and the largest in what was taking place under the influence of the planets and sun themselves, primarily, to the magnetism. Further and more detailed about this, we can speak only if we make an agreement on cooperation. But there’s no one individual is of no use, only if it can affect a strong institute or organization as mentioned above. Consider this my copyright, since I have a lot of indicators.

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