Ignoring science to convince the public that we’re doomed by climate change

By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website.

Summary: The news has become stranger since the climate policy debate has decoupled from the IPCC. Ludicrous claims of certain doom and nightmarish futures splash across the headlines, seldom with rebuttals (climate scientists are complicit in their silence). This one-sided flow of “news” will shape public opinion slowly but surely, creating support for bold measures by President Clinton. Activists are panicking the public for political gain.

“I think looking at grief is quite appropriate, as I believe we are facing human extinction”

— Comment by a reader on the FM website.


“The more immediate danger is runaway climate change. A rise in ocean temperatures will melt the ice caps and cause the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide from the ocean floor. Both effects could make our climate like that of Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees.”

— Nobel laureate physicist Stephen Hawking on “Good morning Britain on NBC News’ U.K. news partner, ITV News in May 2016.

This was reported as “Earth DOOMED by climate change which could burn us alive, warns Stephen Hawking” by Sean Martin in The Daily Express, 31 May 2016.

We have heard this before. The BBC hinted at it last year; Hawking has said it before. There is no support for this in the IPCC’s reports and little (perhaps none) in the peer-reviewed literature. There are papers clearly saying the opposite, such as “Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates” by Colin Goldblatt el al, Nature Geoscience, August 2013 — Gated. See the press release here. Excerpt…

“The so-called `hothouse’ climate of the Eocene is the most useful constraint for anthropogenic change. With the solar constant 1% less than today and a few thousand ppmv CO2, the mean temperature was 10 K warmer than today. With CO2 and temperature both higher then than we expect in the foreseeable future, this implies that an anthropogenic runaway greenhouse is unlikely.

“…As the solar constant increases with time, Earth’s future is analogous to Venus’s past. We expect a runaway greenhouse on Earth 1.5 billion years hence if water is the only greenhouse gas, or sooner if there are others.”

While peer-reviewed analysis is good, it is obvious that Earth cannot become Venus in any policy-relevant time. See the NASA fact sheets for Venus and for Earth. They explain that…

  • Venus is closer to the Sun. Venus is aprox. 0.72 AU distant from the sun (72% of Earth’s), with a total solar irradiance (TSI) almost 2x that of Earth.
  • Venus has a denser atmosphere. The pressure on Venus is 93x that of Earth, the equivalent of almost 1 kilometer under the ocean. This is probably the largest factor causing its high temperature.
  • The clouds of Venus are mostly sulphuric acid (not water vapor) — a powerful greenhouse agent.
  • The atmosphere of Venus has nearly 3000x more CO2 than Earth’s atmosphere. Venus is 96.5% CO2 by volume vs. 380 per million for Earth (0.038%). Goldblatt el al say that with CO2 at 30,000 ppm Earth would have “no stable temperate climate.” That would require burning 10x more than Earth’s estimated fossil fuel resources.

A bizarre, even fun example of our mad news media

“Humans? In 2300? At the rate we’re going odds are there WON’T be many of them and the ones that are there will be far too busy trying to survive to bother over history, other than to curse us.”

— Comment by Bruce J. at the website of Brad DeLong (Prof Economics, Berkeley).

Take a look at “When Did the End Begin?” by Robert Sullivan in New York Magazine — “A scientific debate that’s oddly amusing to entertain: At what point, exactly, did mankind irrevocably put the Earth on the road to ruin?” The title is irrelevant to the article, which discusses dating the point at which the “Anthropocene Era” began, if the designation is approved. That is, when human impacts are the predominate force shaping Earth. It does not imply the beginning of the End Times.

Sullivan gives us the real-world version of an incident in Berkeley Breathed’s great “Bloom County” comic strip. It is not funny when played out in real life.

Bedfellow: “Hello, Bloom Beacon! This is Senator Bedfellow! What’s with this headline? … There’s no story, just a headline!”

Milo: “Which headline?”

Bedfellow: “The big headline on the front page!” ‘BEDFELLOW: THE SECRET LIFE OF A WIFE-SWAPPING ATHEIST’”

Mile: “Oh, that’s just a typo.”


“There will be no successor civilization. … Our planet had ONE shot at building a sustainable industrial civilization, and we humans f***ed it up, big time.”

— Comment by Redwood Rhiadra at website of Brad DeLong (Prof Economics, Berkeley).

A battle consists of phases. Both sides muster their forces, seize advantageous positions. Victory comes to the side that breaks through their foe’s lines. Then begins the pursuit phase, as the losers are chased away or destroyed.

Climate alarmists have followed this formula in the climate public policy debate. They built commanding positions in academia, the news media, ngo’s (such as foundations and the major science professional associations), and the relevant government agencies. With the funding and power so gained, they attack — abandoning the scientists of the IPCC (once called the “gold standard of climate science). Their articles are cheered and echoed by scores of organizations. Dozens of glitzy (well-funded) websites staffed by professionals propagate their messages, as do a flood of books and films.

Now they use their commanding position to say almost anything, however bogus, which pushes their message of climate doom. This campaign will reshape public opinion. For more information see Why skeptics will lose the US climate policy debate.

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July 20, 2016 9:49 am

NPR story I heard yesterday afternoon went on an on about how it’s the hottest this and hottest that on record and everything is only going to get worse and hotter. No other opinion representated – just DOOOOOOMMMM.

John W. Garrett
Reply to  D A
July 20, 2016 12:20 pm

NPR is a propaganda broadcasting platform.
It is completely bent and an embarrassment to any concept of balanced journalism.

Reply to  John W. Garrett
July 20, 2016 3:19 pm

Just like fox news, right?

Reply to  John W. Garrett
July 21, 2016 6:44 am

NPR = the old PRAVDA of USSR.

Reply to  D A
July 20, 2016 1:43 pm

The news never has good news. But these are facts to be concerned about.

Reply to  Dallas
July 20, 2016 9:49 pm

Yeah, it might get warm enough for my tomatoes and peaches to ripen. Imagine the horror…

Reply to  Dallas
July 20, 2016 10:14 pm

The horror of a somewhat less frigidly frozen Arctic wasteland!
Heavens to Betsy.
Sounds unsurvivable to this kid, alright.

Reply to  D A
July 20, 2016 3:00 pm

[snip -language /mod]

Santa Baby
Reply to  D A
July 21, 2016 9:33 pm

Luckily we have ecomarxism that will save nature and stop climate change? Have Marxism ever worked?

July 20, 2016 9:57 am

..Trump will cut off the Tax Payers money supply to this House of Cards and it will crumble into oblivion….

Adam Gallon
Reply to  Marcus
July 20, 2016 11:56 pm

I wouldn’t bet on that, if I were you. He’ll be taken to one side & have it explained to him,how much money flows into the coffers of the various treauries, worldwide, from “Green” taxes.

Ian W
Reply to  Adam Gallon
July 21, 2016 4:12 am

I doubt being told of how much money is taken from productive businesses will impress Trump. You are playing the same ‘zero sum game’ that politicians do. To earn real money the country needs to be productive not penalize production based on spurious claims ‘because it gets taxes in’. Moving money about in an economy is not increasing wealth indeed it will decrease it as productive companies move to other countries.

Sun Spot
Reply to  Adam Gallon
July 22, 2016 7:23 am

Ian W; Donald Drumpf is a New York Liberal, he’ll do what Liberals do.

Mario Lento
Reply to  Adam Gallon
July 22, 2016 12:45 pm

Adam Gallon July 20, 2016 at 11:56 pm:
I wouldn’t bet on that, if I were you. He’ll be taken to one side & have it explained to him,how much money flows into the coffers of the various treauries, worldwide, from “Green” taxes.
Hogwash: No not true. Trump understands economics. He gets the high cost of special interests, and how they drive up the price of energy, to make a few people rich at the expense of a booming economy. So no, Trump cannot be fooled into believing this nonsense. That is Hillary’s position, not Trump’s.

Reply to  Adam Gallon
July 22, 2016 2:58 pm

Mario Lento says:
Trump understands economics.
Correctomundo, compadre. Any self-made $Billionaire who doesn’t understand economics won’t remain a billionaire for very long.
Next, G: Mr. T doesn’t seem to be the kind of guy who can be “taken to one side & have it explained to him” that ‘green taxes’ make any sense. He’s already on record saying that human emissions make little difference to ‘climate change’. For that matter, anyone here is free to ‘explain’ to the rest of us why we should have ‘green’ taxes. All it takes is measurable evidence.
Taxes should be impartial. Otherwise, taxes end up being an extention of government policy, and used to drive its social engineering schemes. But that isn’t what taxes are supposed to be used for.
The gov’t can spend tax revenues on whatever it likes. But when it uses taxes as a punishment for ideas it disapproves of, there’s no real difference between doing that and using the IRS, EPA, and other bureaucracies to harass and punish its political opponents.
It’s the same thing when the gov’t rewards favored businesses. The competitors of those businesses are put at a disadvantage — and the taxpaying public loses again when the business is Solyndra, or the scores of similar scams. When the President gives a ‘loan guarantee’, it is no different than another $500 million tax when Solyndra goes bankrupt. Multiply that by hundreds of examples, and it starts to add up…
Tax policy should be neutral and free of politics. When this country began, most taxes were assessed on property. Property-based taxes were passed on to users; apportioned to all users of that property regardless of their politics. And you can’t hide property overseas.
But things have changed since then. Now, tax policy is routinely used by the government, and it’s gotten much worse: tax revenues are regularly handed out now as federal grants to favored groups. That’s why we see trigger words like “man made global warming”, or similar dog whistle phrases in most climate related papers. But if a paper states that natural variability is sufficient to fully explain observations, the authors can give up any prospect of a federal grant no matter how valuable their conclusions are.
The problem we face now is that this favoritism has become much more political under the current Administration, which blatantly misuses the federal bureaucracy to punish citizens who question its policies: the EPA routinely declares seasonal mud puddles as “wetlands”, forcing the property owner to either spend a huge amount of money to fight the EPA — or to give in, and lose control of their property. But if the same EPA causes an environmental catastrophe, it is protected by the Administration.
Finally, in respose to ‘Sun Spot’: whether you disagree with something about a particular candidate, it’s always best to keep the Big Picture in mind: Which candidate will be best (or worse) for America? No candidate is perfect. With both of them there will always be some things you disagree with. You should reject the candidate whose over-all policies, vision, and personal ethics you most strongly disagree with.
For example, part of the Big Picture is: who will make the next two or three – or four – Supreme Court appointments? That matters — a lot.
Another consideration: will the accelerating tidal wave of anonymous immigrants, both legal and illegal, continue its exponential rise? Or should the country put the current influx on hold until the INS can get some semblance of control over the rising tide of humanity pouring in, and vet the newcomers at least to the point of getting pictures, fingerprints, and other identification recorded? Each candidate has diametrically opposed views on those questions.
Another choice is between the continued decimation and demoralization of our military, versus rebuilding it to a level sufficient to protect our country and our interests in an increasingly hostile world. For the first time in our history, flag rank officers (generals, admirals) are now either kept or cashiered based on a political litmus test. And the gutting of our armed forces continues: recently the Army lost 40,000 soldiers, and the Air Force cannot get spare parts for its aircraft.
Another consideration is whether we should continue wasting billions of dollars endlessly ‘studying climate change’, rather than funding the other areas of science that have been starved of the $billions being diverted to the CAGW false alarm.
There are many other sharp differences between the only two viable candidates. American citizens have a stark choice: to continue the policies of the past eight years, or to change direction from the hard left turn our country has taken.
This time it’s a clear choice. There is no middle ground; it’s either/or. Vote wisely.

Mario Lento
Reply to  Adam Gallon
July 22, 2016 5:48 pm

dbstealey July 22, 2016 at 2:58 pm:
To Add to DB’s comments, which of course are CORRECT. I will make it simple for you’all regarding green taxes. The products that green taxes pay for with MY money, ensures these products get used, and necessarily make all energy more expensive and for what?
You see, energy is what gives us a higher standard of being. A human can expend perhaps 1kWhr of energy per day for labor. At 3 cents per kWhr, human life is elevated from the likes of the 3rd world. Both health and well being is gained and we thrive. Making energy more expensive is antithetical to logic. It defies all that is good.
Today, people gladly defy what is good to our present and future deficit… why? For this dreaded boogeyman call AGW. It’s a craze that funnels monies to people who make products no one wants. And these people do not have to compete on a realistic playing ground. They make products of lower value, hence the need for taking other people’s money to do business.
And don’t get me started on Tesla. Only few rich people would buy these toys Tesla they had to compete based on their own virtue. And still, it’s only for wealthy people to get an expensive car at a price point they are willing to spend. Mark them up 30% higher without the tax credits and almost no one would buy them. This scheme causes all other transportation to pay their toll thus pushing up the cost of other vehicals us plebians must buy.
You who are sure man is causing some catastrophy believe it only for religious reasons. Logic and reason escapes you. Open your eyes and think about the fundamental truth.

Mario Lento
Reply to  Adam Gallon
July 22, 2016 6:11 pm

To continue: I listened last night to Trump’s acceptance speech. It was the first time in my adult life I’m actually excited for how someone could help America where we need it most. Everything about wasteful government that I hated under Bush and more so “underneath” Obama, will be corrected. I am talking about fiscal conservatism.
Making choices to supposedly reduce our temperature in 100 years by some theoretical fraction of a degree are futile and godly expensive. The policies will only redistribute the dwindling wealth of our nation and make people poorer. There will be nothing good that comes of it. This AGW meme causes the EPA to focus on what is NOT pollution (fertilizer for plants) instead of what is pollution. Focusing on reducing CO2 comes at a huge cost to civilization. We may never recover from the damage it’s caused thus far. It’s killing our GDP.
People who use names like “Clean Coal” (which is defined as coal that is process such as to sequester the non polluting CO2 that would otherwise be good for the environment) are using words they do not even understand!
The alterntive? A deceiptful liar, that lives off of the trough of the US’s good will to enrich her own life. She, like Obama, thinks people of specific races are stupid. They divide races of people and pander to them simply to get votes. If Obama really cared about “Black Lives” he’d do something to reduce the actual cause of most black lives being taken.
Instead Obams goes oversees and says that America’s police will be “a lot safer” if they admit they are the problem.
That, is the alternative to Trump. Chaos caused by hateful statements like that.

John Coleman
July 20, 2016 9:59 am

Having worked in the media for 60 years, I can only observe “what’s new?” Nothing. The media loves the sky is falling. The media honors government and Ph.D.’s. So gloom and doom will be headlined whenever the government or a Ph.D. gives the nod.

Reply to  John Coleman
July 20, 2016 11:28 am

That’s an important point. Fear sells, a cousin to “if it bleeds, it leads”.
Likewise, people overcome by fear is nothing new in post-WWII US history. There was widespread hysteria about nuclear war after the USSR exploded a nuke (read Robert Heinlein’s late 1950s stories to see its effect even on smart people).
But these things are still problems, albeit in not unique.

Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 20, 2016 4:21 pm

“PRESIDENT” CLINTON???? Aye God, Woodrow! (We ain’t there YET!)

Reply to  John Coleman
July 20, 2016 1:55 pm

These are facts to be concerned about. From sources more reputable than a fossil fuel tycoon.
But there are some ridiculous claims out there, like earth turning into venus… but this is not an assertive statement. More like worst case scenario, x,y, and z could create unliveable conditions in ???years.
Media will always try to create an attention grabbing story.
But when FACTS are presented you cannot deny them (rising temleratures) and you should be concerned. When a scuentific theory is presented it should be questioned only with with science.

Reply to  Dallas
July 20, 2016 2:16 pm

Dallas: please explain why the earth warmed significantly, and in a very similar way to our recent observations, from 900 to 1300 AD. If you tell me it’s because the Vikings rode vehicles driven by the internal combustion engine to Greenland I will smile.

Reply to  Dallas
July 20, 2016 2:44 pm

Jake – I will smile, too.
And probably roll on the floor laughing!
Auto, hoping Dallas reverts o a human timescale [unlike his ‘scary’ scenarios . . . .]

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Dallas
July 20, 2016 4:36 pm

Computer models written by graduate students that have no formal computer software training is not science. And don’t tell me that the models don’t matter; if they didn’t they wouldn’t be quoted so often. These unverified models are a key component in the AGW theory. Perhaps the most important to the general public.

Reply to  Dallas
July 20, 2016 9:53 pm

Unsuitable models that don’t accurately predict reality aren’t important to anybody, particularly the general public, Paul.

Reply to  Dallas
July 21, 2016 6:54 am

If the climate models are so accurate that we should base the future on them, then use data from the past as model inputs, use real assumptions based on observation and not someone fanciful interpretation of reality. As a scientist I can make any model say just about anything if I manipulate the incoming data and use un-realistic or slightly realistic assumptions. Otherwise the inputs are garbage in and a crap out. They are not real and don’t match reality. Hence they are garbage

Mario Lento
Reply to  Dallas
July 22, 2016 12:47 pm

Earth cannot become like Venus. It’s far away from that heating source you know. And, guess what, Mars’ atmosphere is also mostly CO2… and it’s cold as hell there.

Reply to  Mario Lento
July 24, 2016 8:46 am

The heating of Venus’s atmosphere is from the planet’s central molten core. Venus’s crust is thinner than Earth’s and heat is transferred by conduction much quicker. The atmosphere of very dense and largely refluxing sulphuric acid with oxides of sulphur producing some oleum (SO3 in solution with H2SO4). Anyway the atmosphere is far too dense for radiation from the sun to penetrate so greenhouses don’t even come into the equation.

Reply to  John Coleman
July 21, 2016 12:17 am

@ Gold rider 4: 21 pm This one-sided flow of “news” will shape public opinion slowly but surely, creating support for bold measures by President Clinton. Activists are panicking the public for political gain.
That one just jerked me up out of my chair as well, (Oh dang I was having a snooze).

Tom Halla
July 20, 2016 10:01 am

There is a market for doom. The only way that doom-mongers ever lose influence is by mockery and contempt. If the greens were treated like Evangelical millenarians, much of their influence would go away.

Reply to  Tom Halla
July 20, 2016 11:30 am

But we have a credulous, invested and compliant media who love doomism for its “compelling storyline”.

July 20, 2016 10:02 am

It looks to me like they threw the sex scandal thing at the IPCC chair to get rid of him, and used that to shut it down. Hence, the media is off ranting on its own. The raging doom headlines are not shaping public opinion, they are totally ignored. People are getting an increasing amount of content from social media, which is overall causing the old media stories to become inflamed for attention, which funny enough, leads to their being discredited and ignored. A key component of current alarm is to try to maintain a science budget in the face of really boring climate with nothing much to say. You could see the panic coming when they started saying they could process sample noise to see trends. Sort of like saying there are patterns in random numbers. An uptick in noise is no longer, uh, noise. It is now an alarming increase.

July 20, 2016 10:03 am

They have condition our mind to accept AGW for the last 25 years. It will take the next 50 years to correct. They will claim victory just like in the Ozone scare.

Reply to  Russell
July 20, 2016 11:47 am

“…to accept AGW for the last 25 years. It will take the next 50 years to correct”
Nope, I’m betting that less than one cool decade would do the trick.

Reply to  Paul
July 20, 2016 4:11 pm

Nope…. this one is already cooler than the last. But as long as the propagandists control the media they will believe it’s the hottest ever overall even though it may be cold as hell at their home

Reply to  Paul
July 20, 2016 9:05 pm

I disagree, as the average non-idiot has a very well developed BS meter in their skull.

Reply to  Paul
July 21, 2016 5:23 am

“… the average non-idiot…”
IS there such a thing?

Reply to  Paul
July 21, 2016 12:21 pm

Paul writes: “I’m betting that less than one cool decade would do the trick.”
I think the price of intellectual victory in that case would be too high. I’d almost rather lose my 1st amendment rights than stand by as billions of people starve. Let’s be honest, if the astrophysicists are right and the sun is headed into a “quiet phase”, it’s going to get cold again. But the last time this happened we didn’t have a globally interconnected industrial agricultural system in place feeding 9 billion people. There was a whole lot more elasticity in the system, more unrealized capacity and a much smaller population. Most people were farmers. They raised their own food. That’s not true anymore in industrialized countries. India might still be OK, most of South America. Africa. Maybe even China. But Europe, the US, Canada, Australia? They’d be toast.
The world (as we know it) would not survive a rapid onset of cooling. If temperatures returned to the Maunder Minimum for a decade, we’d see massive social unrest, huge losses in population, war, pestilence, pretty much the worst parts of the bible.
I know it will happen, I’m just hoping to be dead before it does.

Reply to  Paul
July 23, 2016 1:18 pm

“IS there such a thing?”
Perhaps typical would have been a better word than average.
although logic and human psychology tell us that the “average” non-idiot is smarter than average.

July 20, 2016 10:08 am

Profits and Prophecy.

July 20, 2016 10:15 am

Unfortunately, scientific mysticism is not limited to prophecies of catastrophic warming. It has been equally effective to normalize the agenda of population control schemers. Whereas China had a one-child policy, liberal societies have a selective-child policy. Where the former is evidence of a minority psychopathy, the latter is evidence of consensus psychopathy. The same mystics that normalized selective-child and other selective policies are behind the CAGW/CACC prophecy and its related schemes.

Bryan A
July 20, 2016 10:24 am

Summary: The news has become stranger since the climate policy debate has decoupled from the IPCC. Ludicrous claims of certain doom and nightmarish futures splash across the headlines, seldom with rebuttals (climate scientists are complicit in their silence). This one-sided flow of “news” will shape public opinion slowly but surely, creating support for bold measures by President Clinton. Activists are panicking the public for political gain.
Clinton was president from 1993 till 2001 not sure He will have any “Bold Measures” to support.
Hillary hasn’t been elected and thereby isn’t President so I am uncertain as to which “President Clinton” you are referring to

Reply to  Bryan A
July 20, 2016 11:56 am

Yes, Hillary has not yet been elected.

Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 20, 2016 12:33 pm

If the US ignorantly elects her President, her every waking moment in office will be fighting impeachment votes stemming from an unending stream of scandals. If she isn’t found not guilt by the Senate after her first impeachment, she will become the first President to be impeached more than once. Climate change will be a much lower priority, and likely never addressed. And forget about her ever getting anything passed by Congress.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 20, 2016 6:32 pm

I wonder what Bill will say about male interns, lol!

Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 21, 2016 11:50 am

Impeachment proceedings are from the House of Reps…

Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 22, 2016 7:46 am

taz, impeachment is proposed and voted on in the House. They are tried in the Senate.

Tom Anderson
July 20, 2016 10:25 am

There is plenty of rebuttal to these climate fright spasms. We see the rebuttals daily. Just how, pray, are they to appear on these check-out-line “news forums”? Kill the gatekeepers? Or at the least, tell respected scientists like Hawking to check their facts before they mouth off? If they rebut, do you suppose they will get news space? Dream on.
All of it is a runaway. manic popular delusion unmatched by anything the middle ages dished up. For all of our progress, ignorance and superstition are as controlling as ever.

Ross King
July 20, 2016 10:25 am

We’re doomed anyway ….. during the sun’s expansion (into a White Dwarf, is it?) in the next — what? — 3 bn. years. If that doesn’t get us, some lunatic despot, or a big meteor, or other natural disaster will.
However, by far the greatest and most immediate threat is from the Alarmists themselves who would have us revert to the Dark Ages. Our life-spans will be halved, infant & birthing mortality will sky-rocket, public health-care will vanish, social welfare & community services will collapse, wars over resources will explode, famine will follow a disintegration of efficient farming and plagues will overrun us.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Ross King
July 20, 2016 2:16 pm

We’re all gonna die!!!!

Bryan A
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
July 20, 2016 2:45 pm

So say 4.85 out of 5 leading prognosticators

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
July 20, 2016 2:52 pm

Immortality with worsening arthritis, impotence, that failing memory thing, and the rest, do seem a god argument for – yes – “We’re all gonna die!”
[As a good greenie, I’ve economised on exclamation mark use, although I support your use in the original quote from some screaming socialist millionaire thespian or other [My Guess]. Thanks.]

Reply to  Ross King
July 20, 2016 3:45 pm

WoW…. so many of our are completely retarded. You take the extreme of one side of the arguement to completely discredit the entire idea and support the opposite side. How is that any better?
You cannot ignore the FACTS unless you are just that ignorant. The Earth IS warming and humans have had a major impact. The point at which that happened? The industrial revolution. Do some people take that idea and get carried away? Yes. However, intelligently analyzing the data does give cause for concerb for future generations.
Revert to dark ages? Give me a break and go give your head a shake. No, all we need to do is ditch our bad habits like burning fossil fuels and focus more on clean energy. We OWE it to future generations.
Yes the earth naturally shifts environmental states without our help. However, the rate that climate is changing is NOT its natural rate which is the problem.
Even if humans are not directly causing harmful effects to the environment (which we clearly are) shouldnt we strive to make the earth as healthy as possible…. even healthier than if we didnt exsist if its within our means? …. If we found an almost earth like planet within reach but was plagued with environmental problems whats the first thing we would try to do? Make it better…. make it liveable…. just because earth is currently liveable why shouldnt we still strive to make it better rather than ranting about alarmist and doomsayers just so you feel better about ignoring them?

Reply to  Joel
July 20, 2016 11:43 pm

Joel, “The Earth IS warming and humans have had a major impact. The point at which that happened? The industrial revolution. ”
‘My attitude changed profoundly while I was working on a project funded by the National Science Foundation to develop a climate record for the past 110,000 years. By examining ice cores from Greenland, my colleagues and I determined that climate changes large enough to have extensive impacts on our society have occurred in less than 10 years.’
Rapid climate change.

Reply to  Joel
July 21, 2016 12:39 am

@ lee, read the article. As far as I am concerned, taking samples can , to me, be very misleading. Just the other day we had a storm come through witch dumped various levels of precip and in very close areas. In one area? There was nothing, a few hundred feet away, there was 15 mm of rain in 15 minutes ( measured) and a few dozen FEET away 25 mm ( one inch) of large hail ( again measured) how would those events show up in a core sample ( or core samples ) a few hundred feet away? And in samples thousands of years old ?

Dirk Pitt
Reply to  Joel
July 21, 2016 12:56 pm

Joel, … How many electric vehicles are you driving?

Reply to  Joel
July 21, 2016 1:27 pm

“…shouldn’t we strive to make the earth as healthy as possible…?”
Yes. However, covering vast swaths of natural habitat with rare-bird-chomping windmills and solar panels whose manufacture generates copious hazardous waste to produce a pittance of intermittent power is not a way to do that.
Moreover, CO2 is not a pollutant, but a fundamental compound necessary and beneficial for life.

Reply to  Joel
July 22, 2016 3:08 am

Joel writes: “We OWE it to future generations.”
Let me guess; you’re a loan officer?
Joel, it’s not clear the future exists. Heisenberg gives us good reason to think the future is entirely unpredictable. If you’re not familiar with his work I can only suggest you read it. He demonstrated the future state of a system can’t be determined from its current state. He further demonstrated the more you know about the current state of a system, the less you know about its future state. The very act of observing a system changes it.
You’re attempting to do the impossible; predict the future. Everything we know about the universe tells us the future is inherently unknowable.
But you want us all to think you know it? Why would any of us believe you?

Mario Lento
Reply to  Joel
July 22, 2016 12:54 pm

Joel July 20, 2016 at 3:45 pm wrote
“WoW…. so many of our are completely retarded. You take the extreme of one side of the arguement to completely discredit the entire idea and support the opposite side. How is that any better?” then he wrote “The Earth IS warming and humans have had a major impact. ”
Seriously? After insulting people, you talk about the extreme case and then say Humans have a “major” impact? That’s an extreme case that is not shown in anything except hypothetical models. Where, what evidence do you have that humans have had a major impact?
Perhaps I should back up a bit. Do you have an understanding of the subject matter, or are you repeating things you heard or read somewhere without a basic understanding of what is actually true.
Good grief.

Reply to  Mario Lento
July 24, 2016 8:32 am

Many warmists are woefully uninformed and can barely express themselves in English.

Reply to  Joel
July 23, 2016 1:55 pm

Joel, you have apparently bought into the lie that any changes to temperature or the climate regimes of the Earth which may be occurring are somehow unprecedented, and that we are witnessing changes which are outside of natural and normal variability.
Get off the Kool-Aid and get some real information, and stop regurgitating warmista jackassery.
By parroting alarmist baloney, you cast yourself among the low information types.

Reply to  Menicholas
July 24, 2016 8:05 am

Joel, it would help if you could write and express yourself in English.

Reply to  Ross King
July 20, 2016 4:25 pm

Do you see this happening, REALLY? I don’t, for one very good reason–no one would be making MONEY, and MONEY is what makes the world go ’round. No one’s going to trade their Tesla for an Amish buggy, any more than they’re cashing in their iPhones for snail-mail. Hyperbole on our side does little to diminish the effect of even more ridiculous hyperbole on theirs. The bottom line will be business as usual, plus new innovations that change the game. It has been ever thus. Or to put it another way, NYC is NOT buried under 100+ feet of horse manure (except when Hillary’s talking). Have a beer! 😉

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Ross King
July 20, 2016 6:35 pm

I’ve got a sharp stick ready! Better knock on my mud hut and don’t just walk in!

Mary Brown
July 20, 2016 10:39 am

I just try to avoid politics and tell people the basic data. Temps are up 0.6 deg in the fossil fuel era. We can only sense a 2 deg difference and can only measure within perhaps 0.2 deg. Some, perhaps most, due to humans. Humans have caused perhaps two inches of sea level rise. It would be extremely hard to argue more than 4″ and one could easily argue 0. Forecast models have been consistently, and dramatically too high. The changes have been slowing, not accelerating. Many peer reviewed astronomers warn of solar cooling.
The issue is complex and we are clueless in many ways. But the climate is actually very stable. Relax. Move on.
Most reasonable people actually ‘get’ this which is why climate change is low on priority lists in opinion polls.
Also, it’s important to explain that “better safe than sorry” is a bad idea. Spending billions on climate change mitigation is ineffective and takes precious resources from more important environmental challenges.

Reply to  Mary Brown
July 20, 2016 11:34 am

But RealityTheatre™ tells is the end is near if we don’t all comply and agree to huge(er) governments and spending!

Reply to  Mary Brown
July 20, 2016 11:34 am

Work on soundbites. Models failed because of (1) growing divergence from satellite and balloon temperature observations and (2) nearly twice the observational sensitivity. No troposphere (satellite/radiosonde) warming this century except the now rapidly cooling El Nino blip. No significant SLR acceleration in either dGPS corrected tide gauges or satellite altimetry; the two cannot be spliced because tide gauges have closure but altimetry does not by a factor of 1.5x. CO2 is causing measurable global greening. Arctic ice has not disappeared and is likely undergoing cyclic recovery; Antarctic ice may well be net growing.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  ristvan
July 20, 2016 2:22 pm

The models failed for the same reason models always fail. The parameters of the equations are not sufficiently well known. Not all processes are modeled. There is no where near enough data to be able to represent the whole planet. The equations produce chaotic results. etc. etc. & etc.

Reply to  ristvan
July 20, 2016 5:47 pm

When confronted by a warmunist, I always have the winning argument:
‘Warm dese nuts!’
Debate over. Pwn3d.

Reply to  ristvan
July 21, 2016 12:02 pm

I do notice the upper atmosphere is cooling. This is probably caused by the greenhouse effect.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Mary Brown
July 20, 2016 6:39 pm

Mary, Mary, quite contrary!

Reply to  Mary Brown
July 21, 2016 12:36 pm

Mary that’s all well and good but it’s much less fun than a zombie apocalypse. Somehow you need to work in automatic weapons, grenades and zombies. It’s not going to fly the way you have it.

July 20, 2016 10:47 am

Watts Up With the new prime minister taking action on the Climate bs operation in the British govt.
see a post on legal insurrection blog
a buddy called me on phone on this
my try on the web site

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  fobdangerclose
July 20, 2016 3:02 pm

Watts up with off-topic posts??

Reply to  fobdangerclose
July 20, 2016 4:30 pm

correct link
British Prime Minister Theresa May has been facing criticism during her first few days in office over her decision to close the U.K. Department of Energy and Climate Change.
The closure was reported on Thursday, May’s first full day in office after the departure of David Cameron.
iirc same item was covered here few days ago just didn’t have chance to verify

July 20, 2016 10:52 am

I now it doesnt go down well but Hawking is part hack. Much of his claims re astrophysics was bollocks.

Reply to  Mark
July 20, 2016 11:35 am

You have to wonder if he’d be as famous as he is were it not for his condition.

Science or Fiction
Reply to  Mark
July 20, 2016 1:55 pm

It suddenly struck me that Stephen Hawking must be an inductivist – “Et tu, Brute”.
Einstein, Feynman and Popper all praised imagination as the first step in finding out how things work.
However, they all stated that knowledge rests on testing:
«In the case of science – I think one of the things which makes it very difficult – is that it takes a lot of imagination – It´s really hard to imagine all the crazy things that things really are like!»
– Richard Feynman
“In general, we look for a new law by the following process. First, we guess it (audience laughter), no, don’t laugh, that’s really true. Then we compute the consequences of the guess, to see what, if this is right, if this law we guess is right, to see what it would imply and then we compare the computation results to nature, or we say compare to experiment or experience, compare it directly with observations to see if it works.
If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are who made the guess, or what his name is… If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.”
– Richard Feynman
The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination.
– Albert Einstein
“The only source of knowledge is experience.”
– Albert Einstein
“I said above that the work of the scientist consists in putting forward and testing theories.
The initial stage, the act of conceiving or inventing a theory, seems to me neither to call for logical analysis nor to be susceptible of it. The question how it happens that a new idea occurs to a man— whether it is a musical theme, a dramatic conflict, or a scientific theory—may be of great interest to empirical psychology; but it is irrelevant to the logical analysis of scientific knowledge. This latter is concerned not with questions of fact (Kant’s quid facti?), but only with questions of justification or validity (Kant’s quid juris?). Its questions are of the following kind. Can a statement be justified? And if so, how? Is it testable? Is it logically dependent on certain other statements? Or does it perhaps contradict them? In order that a statement may be logically examined in this way, it must already have been presented to us. Someone must have formulated it, and submitted it to logical examination.”
– Karl Popper;
I have no doubt that Stephen Hawking is an intelligent man having a great imagination.
However – Dear Stephen Hawking can you please provide us with information about the tests your imagined ideas have been exposed to, and the results of these tests?
“A few years ago, the city council of Monza, Italy, barred pet owners from keeping goldfish in curved bowls… saying that it is cruel to keep a fish in a bowl with curved sides because, gazing out, the fish would have a distorted view of reality. But how do we know we have the true, undistorted picture of reality?”
– Stephen Hawking
How do we know, Stephen Hawking, that you have a true, undistorted picture of reality?

Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 20, 2016 5:38 pm

ha ha – because black holes matter, my dear.
and only yoko ono sings better than he.

Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 20, 2016 7:50 pm

Science or Fiction,
“Einstein, Feynman and Popper all praised imagination as the first step in finding out how things work.
However, they all stated that knowledge rests on testing:”
“The only source of knowledge is experience.”
– Albert Einstein
He didn’t say what you said he did, though you seem to me to be sort of reconciling that difference, and we may be thinking along similar lines about these matters . . We all have lots and lots of experiences that are not “tests”, but which result in knowledge. I know what I had for breakfast today, for instance, yet was not conducting any sort of tests . . This is no small matter to me, and I feel it is extremely important and relevant to all sorts of discussion I observe here, and elsewhere.
Science is a form of “the experimental philosophy” as Mr. Newton called it (though not the only form it seems to me, and I’ve personally performed many informal experiments myself (as I don’t doubt many here have), that do not qualify as scientific experimentation, from which I nevertheless gained knowledge). But it is not the only way people come to have knowledge, though as Mr. Einstein said and I agree, experience is.
An illusion is possible, and seems to me to be rather common these days among those who study/work in scientific realms of knowledge, which lacks depth owing to a lack self awareness. The illusion that knowledge exists independent of the knower(s). The illusion that what some scientist knows is somehow above/independent of the scientist’s fundamental belief generating intelligence systems.
I say, the vast majority of the scientific knowledge anyone reading these words has, does not come to them through tests/experiments which THEY conduct. It’s predominantly based on faith in what they’ve experienced, regarding what others (ostensibly) tested, and the reasoning done in relation to such testing. Science in this (very important) sense, is a faith based belief system, I say (and am willing to defend if anyone wishes to challenge that statement).
You write two questions, one your own;
“But how do we know we have the true, undistorted picture of reality?”
– Stephen Hawking
“How do we know, Stephen Hawking, that you have a true, undistorted picture of reality?”
~ you.
I say, much subtle confusion arises from the use of ‘we’ rather than ‘I’ in those questions, which is extremely relevant to many objections folks around here raise in regard to the CAGW idea and its proponents . . They say, “We know”, and act as if those who disagree are each just an “I” who disagrees with known (settled) science. In short, they employ argument from authority, which “works” in terms of public perception, to a great extent, I feel, because a great many “skeptics” still speak as though their knowledge is what a “We know”, in regard to much other science related knowledge.
And I say; It’s just us “I”s all the way down . .
(If there is no God, anyway ; )

Science or Fiction
Reply to  JohnKnight
July 21, 2016 1:33 am

Thank you for that very thoughtful comment. I think you are touching upon something essential, and I think the interpretation of the words: Experience, test and knowledge; might be at central. I also find your perspective on “I” versus “we” to be important. I will have to let it sink in and work on it a bit before I revert. 🙂

Science or Fiction
Reply to  JohnKnight
July 21, 2016 10:51 am

My thesaurus provides two different meanings of the word «experience»:
1 practical contact with and observation of facts or events
2 skill, practical knowledge, practice; training, learning, education, grounding, knowledge, understanding, wisdom, professionalism; background, record, history, past ….
I think it is only the first definition which make sense in this context. I think it is fair to say that the kind of experiences included in the second definition all have its flaws or shortcomings.
Regarding knowledge, I would say: I don’t know the truth about what I had for breakfast today.
I might think I know what I had for breakfast today. However, at some level I cannot know it precisely. I might think I know that I had: a cup of coffee, 10 cherries, and 100 g croissant. However, it might have happened that I actually had two cups of coffee. How do I know that I ate 10 cherries and did not miss one or take 1 extra? How do I know the croissant was 100 g? If I had a scale I could have measured it. Unfortunately, the only thing I would then know for sure is that it was not exactly 100 gram. Simply because all measurements have uncertainty related to them. I could get closer to the truth if the scale I used had a calibration certificate traceable to the international standard for gram. In which case I could identify the scale and provide the calibration certificate. I could then state that I ate: 100 g +/- 5 g @ 95% confidence level, of croissant this morning. There will always be uncertainties related to observations.
Anyhow, my eventual knowledge about what I ate for breakfast isn´t really scientific knowledge. Not in the sense of science being ideas about how things work. I cannot use my knowledge about what I ate for breakfast to repeatedly predict anything reliably about the future, I cannot deduce a necessary consequence from my knowledge – and the accuracy of my knowledge cannot be inter-subjectively tested. The events of my breakfast now belongs to the past. There are possible errors related to my knowledge and these errors can never be revealed. No living person knows every aspect of truth about what he had for breakfast – even if he did – it wouldn´t be knowledge about how things work.
On the other side, about things having a function: Quantitative theories, models or for that sake any physical or mental construction – is that there are all kinds of and uncertainties and possibly systematic errors related also to them.
That is why good engineers typically tests every part of their constructions, if not individually or fully, then at least as part of a larger part of the system or finally as part of the whole system. Challenger was put to the ultimate test – and failed. That test revealed an error. Tests of quantitative models or theories may also reveal significant systematic errors, or uncertainties which are larger than imagined up front.
Another aspect is that models are often so complex that no single individual cannot fully understand the function of every single component and the complete system. Hence, for a complex model there can be no single individual who can accurately and reliably predict the uncertainty and know that the model is without systematic errors. Not without testing.
However, once the model output is compared with observable events, an individual person can conclude if the model works. Even if I don´t know the function of every part of a model – I can easily conclude if a complex models works in accordance with it´s stated capability – if the intended function and the test results are available to me. I don´t have to understand every part of the model and how it is realized. And that is what I require even within my profession – that the capabilities are stated upfront and then demonstrated by independent testing.
And ultimately that is what science is about: Provide a model or construction, information about the intended capabilities and reliable information about how it compares with observations.

Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 21, 2016 7:05 pm

You’re certainly welcome . . and thanks right back atya.
“I think it is only the first definition which make sense in this context.”
Well, to my mind both senses are often closely linked and important to bear in mind when considering many scientific matters. To illustrate, I read here recently of a man (with a relevant science degree of some sort, as I recall) who observed large scale air turbulence (weather systems) in the equatorial region, crossing the equator. He basically freaked out and sounded the Climate Change Alarm.
At which I, with no such degree, was puzzled, wondering if I had missed something basic along the way (to my current state of ignorance ; ) which would make such (to my mind) mundane physical eventualities alarming or “unprecedented” for some reason. My “off-hand” assessment turned out to be typical among degreed types (even those with “climate science” degrees ; ) and the guy was pretty universally dismissed as being foolish about the events/facts he had “practical contact with”.
That second definition/sense of ‘experience’ stuff, was apparently lacking to the point of making him less qualified than “laymen” to assess the events/facts in a rational way. I don’t doubt he has more “knowledge” about the “science” than I do, to put it in commonly used terms . . but that (1st definition) form of “experience” failed him miserably, it seems to me.
Concerning your hypothetical breakfast, I just meant you would know that what you had was coffee, berries and a croissant, or whatever. This important, on a fundamental level that is rarely discussed in science circles it seems to me. THAT sort of knowledge MUST be legitimate knowing, I say, or “scientific knowledge” cannot be legitimate either . . Very fundamental logical problems overwhelm any attempt to “us” knowing things, if “I” can’t unto myself know things . . This is the critical question, as I see the world I find myself, not the oft heard version;
If a tree falls in the forest, and only you hear it; Did it make a sound? . . ; )

Science or Fiction
Reply to  JohnKnight
July 22, 2016 1:13 am

I think we certainly know a lot of things which are very helpful to us. In some cases we are closer to truth than in other cases. I guess I overdid my hypothetical breakfast to illustrate that all perspectives of truth are not readily available to us, even in simple cases.
However, In many cases my experience is good enough for the intended purpose. Problems arises when I try to extend my ideas beyond what I have hitherto known well enough for previous intended purposes.
That problem is known, by some at least, as the problem of induction. The problem of induction occurs for any application of a theory at other conditions than those conditions for which the theory has hitherto been corroborated by experience. Just like the O-ring which failed on Challenger. (Challenger was qualified for launches above 40 F but was launched at lower temperatures.) Within logic, inference by deduction is logically valid. Inference by induction is logically flawed.
The problem of induction and the implication for ethical scientific conduct is very well covered by Karl Popper in his work: The logic of scientific discovery. The first 26 pages contains the essence, very well written. Certainly worth a read.
Regarding the man you refer to, who freaked out and sounded the Climate Change Alarm, I think Karl Popper describes quite well how we should relate to his ideas:
«The initial stage, the act of conceiving or inventing a theory, seems to me neither to call for logical analysis nor to be susceptible of it. The question how it happens that a new idea occurs to a man— whether it is a musical theme, a dramatic conflict, or a scientific theory—may be of great interest to empirical psychology; but it is irrelevant to the logical analysis of scientific knowledge.»
I think inductivism is at the core of the climate change controversy. And I think that problem has been enhanced United Nations. I think the greatest blunder has been the endorsement of inductivism by United Nations, IPCC and it´s reviewer InterAcademyCouncil. I cannot include all my arguments for thinking that here, however, you will find my arguments at the site linked behind my alias: Science or Fiction? Any thought I have ever completed about this controversy has been published, either on that site or in comments like this. That´s why I made my site, to be fully open about what I think. As you implied, there is no “we” on the skeptics side.

Science or Fiction
Reply to  JohnKnight
July 22, 2016 2:18 am

I meant “made worse by ” rather than “enhanced by United Nations”. 🙂

Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 22, 2016 11:42 pm

Hmm, some good thinkin’ there it seems to me. If I was comfortable with ruling out “foul play”, I could agree that “the greatest blunder has been the endorsement of inductivism by United Nations, IPCC and it´s reviewer InterAcademyCouncil.” . . but I suspect that the endorsement of inductivism was not a blunder at all . .
(Yes, I know, it’s not how scientists generally behave . . ; )

Science or Fiction
Reply to  JohnKnight
July 23, 2016 12:25 am

Thanks for our conversation here, I enjoyed it a lot. 🙂
Without going into that discussion here, I think United Nations could deserve some more criticism.
There are some unelected influential bureaucrats having control over a powerful organization.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Mark
July 20, 2016 6:43 pm

Yup! A lot of his earlier work has been proven incorrect. The later work mostly not that significant. His work on climate though,????????

July 20, 2016 10:59 am

The more sensational, alarming, gruesome or disturbing a statement is, the more attention it gets from the press – on the assumption that it will sell more papers / attract more viewers / draw more votes.
“If it bleeds, it leads.”
It is not about truth or correct information, and hasn’t been for centuries.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” – H. L. Mencken

July 20, 2016 10:59 am

I’m not worried. The days have gone when the people automatically kowtowed to their elites. Said elites have undermined their authority by years of obfuscation, half truths and outright lying on many subjects. People no longer believe them. And most people are not stupid, there comes a time when they realise they have been sold a pup and that time is very close in the realm of climate science. Very, very close.

Reply to  David Johnson
July 20, 2016 12:11 pm

Electing Donald Trump would be a kick in the nuts to said elite. And they’d claim those voters as racist or stupid or whatever. I wonder if that’s what they’d really believe or they’d recognize the nutting for what it is.

Reply to  mpcraig
July 20, 2016 1:14 pm

This scenario has been playing out in the UK. Look at the reaction of the EU elites and the young socialists. Both groups want to dump democracy since they know best what the UK needs.
This is exactly what the SED and their STASI enforcers thought in the DDR. They knew best what was good for East German citizens.

July 20, 2016 11:02 am

After 3 sweltering days (uncomfortable) in Cheltenham I thought how nice it would be to return to the cold refreshing June days; when I was told by the IPCC’s hockey stick department via the BBC that June had been the hottest on record.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  chemengrls
July 20, 2016 9:47 pm

Yes even the MSM here in Aus are covering this as the hottest evah for the UK, but in reality it was just a hot July. Still several degrees off the 1976 temps…so I would not be too worried.

Reply to  Patrick MJD
July 21, 2016 5:13 am

July hasn’t been hot in GB at all only the 17th to 20th, three days; for six weeks before that it was cold, raining and miserable in fact worse than it normally is. Anyway I don’t know why I’m bothering to blog, global warming is a total nonsense, how could a footling amount (380 to 400 ppm) of CO2 cause a runaway heating of the planet when a few more molecules are added – it just does not make any sense at all.

July 20, 2016 11:16 am

(1) The Eocene is an inappropriate comparison. Climate is affected by continental positions and ocean currents. Antarctica did not begin to glaciate until about 35 millions years ago as it approached its present position. Present Paleocene ice age did not begin until the Panama Isthmus closed about 2.2 million years ago. Eemian highstand shows there are no SLR tipping points, at least not for another 3000 years if we do reach +2C; Eemian rise from present SLR to its highstand about 6.6m higher is a rate of 2.2mm/year, just what dGPS tide gauges. Are showing now. Greening shows more CO2 is beneficial up to levels that we cannot reach given likely price/abailability of fossil fuels– RPC8.5 is a joke.
(2) I do not share your apparent despair, for 3 reasons: a. Mother Nature is not cooperating with the warmunists, and there have been enough alarming ‘projections’ already falsified that people are beginning to take notice. Neither snow nor Arctic ice have disappeared. b. The intermittency failure of renewables is becoming evident with penetration even in wacko places like California, UK, Germany, and South Australia. I suspect even harder object lessons are coming soon in the form of killing intermittency caused blackouts, as has happened already in SA, and will likely happen this winter in UK. Relying on shut and mothballed obsolete coal/gas generation for all your inadequate reserve safety margin is UK energy suicide. c. Despite growing warmunist shrillness and its continued amplification in MSM, the public isn’t buying. That simple fact explains the shrillness. China, India, and now Phillipines won’t play. UK just eliminated DECC by folding into new BEIS; the emphasis will now be on business, energy, and industrial strategy, not climate change. Wailing and nashing of Greenpeace won’t change that until at least the next election in 2020. May has made this clear. Obama’s CPP was already stayed by SCOTUS because likely unconstitional. Hillary cannot change that. Obama failed with carbon taxes even when Dems held both branches of Congress 2008-2010 at the peak of the AR4 hype before Climategate. Hillary will have no shot either unless Trump proves an utter disaster down ticket as well as up ticket. We shall see.

Wim Röst
Reply to  ristvan
July 20, 2016 2:35 pm

Ristvan, I like your comments. Thanks!

Reply to  ristvan
July 21, 2016 12:59 am

Ristvan I like your comments as well, but just paragraph them . It will make them so much easier to read. Thanks, asybot.

Reply to  ristvan
July 21, 2016 12:09 pm

Ristvan, we do need to worry about the depleting fossil fuel reserves. Need to develop better nuclear power for the USA and other developed nations. I’m not convinced we should encourage deploying nuclear plants in Saudi Arabia, Algeria, or Venezuela.

July 20, 2016 11:22 am

For more information see Why skeptics will lose the US climate policy debate.

I do not think skeptics will lose the climate debate. In my opinion the climate debate will become irrelevant for policies when more urgent and serious problems take our attention out of it. Once everybody gets over the debate, science will start to work on sorting it out.

Reply to  Javier
July 20, 2016 11:58 am

I suggest you read the post. Time will tell which of us is correct.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 20, 2016 2:29 pm

If the Russians are right, and they probably are because their scientists are far less politicized than ours are, the debate will end in 2020 because the new solar minimum will cause a new LIA.

Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 20, 2016 7:23 pm

Walter, it is not the Russian scientists who believe in a new LIA brought about by a grand solar minimum in the next decade, but SOME Russian scientists, that are likely to be wrong. The fact that LIA took place 400 years ago means that it is very likely that a new very cold period won’t take place for at least 500 years, as these are millennial and multimillennial cycles at play. How many LIAs there have been during the Holocene? Why do you think there are going to be two in less than 500 years?

Matt G
Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 21, 2016 7:04 pm

There have been 21 LIA like cooling periods during the Holocene. This doesn’t mean equivalent global temperature periods, but equivalent cooling periods either causing temporary stability in much longer warming period (i.e. from major ice age to inter-glacier) or continuing an increasingly long-term trend down. There were 3 during the last 2000 years with increasingly cooler global temperatures.
These periods fit in a solar cycle roughly every 360 years. There has been a period of warming for 360 years and a period of cooling for 360 years with 3 each of these in the last 2000 years. Therefore the next LIA type cooling period should not be due until around 2210, although as mentioned some say may happen sooner.

July 20, 2016 11:23 am

Constant bad, doom and gloom messages and reports can have a negative psychological effect, especially amongst children.

July 20, 2016 11:29 am

Actually if people are that easily taken by bogus,lying scaremongering claims,then they are plain gullible and stupid. But a few smarter people are WILLFULLY ignoring the evidence that the warming trend since the late 1600’s is not unusual.

Reply to  Sunsettommy
July 20, 2016 12:02 pm

“Actually if people are that easily taken by bogus,lying scaremongering claims,then they are plain gullible and stupid.”
Technically true, but kind of unfair. It really is conflicting when we need to distrust the authority of just climate science. It goes against what parents teach kids. That widespread betrayal appears to be an anomaly of climate “science”, but who knows until others comes to light?

Reply to  Paul
July 20, 2016 1:19 pm

Since Plato, we have been taught that the Appeal to Authority is a logical fallacy. Bentham called them “political fallacies.”
Charlatans usually through in some ad hominem attacks (another logical fallacy) as they try to deceive us.

Reply to  Paul
July 20, 2016 1:31 pm

“Since Plato, we have been taught that the Appeal to Authority is a logical fallacy”
And since childhood we (the layperson) has been taught to respect that Authority. We have yet to evolve to handle malicious misdirection from science “authorities”. Even worse when the MSM play along.

Reply to  Paul
July 21, 2016 10:02 am

parents indoctrinate their children into an authority worshipping cult is unfair?
paying the consequences of believing lies is unfair?
nature is entirely and perpetually fair.
be stupid, get smacked.
it doesn’t get any fairer than that.
your disneyesque wishing for anything else than what is – that’s called ‘fantasy’
mysticism of that kind has consequences.
it’s all fair. real justice is served when a person gets what he deserved.

July 20, 2016 11:29 am

What has happened in the press and government organizations, is that in choosing people to deal with environmental issues, they mistakenly hired activists because they were “experienced” in environmental issues. Unfortunately they were experienced because they were zealots…all the more rational ones having long since retired from those causes because the developed world had already dealt with its environmental issues reasonably well.
We have effectively hired members of a nature cult that believes capitalism and industry are the horsemen of the apocalypse …so of course they spew nothing but news of the coming apocalypse.

Reply to  poitsplace
July 20, 2016 4:28 pm

And their constant appeals to emotionalism are a dead giveaway.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  poitsplace
July 20, 2016 7:15 pm

That might be the most accurate and concise I’ve heard it put. These “nature cultists” are so determined to have a place of importance in the world that they are prepared to live without regard for the truth.Science has a problem but in the context of public issues this is a phenomenon of modern psychology.

Dr. Bob
July 20, 2016 11:34 am

I am not sure why environmentalists want us to go back to the stone age. Wherever man went, mega fauna died. It happened every time man moved. In Australia, man migrated there around 50,000 years ago. within a few thousand years, all large mammals were gone. Giant Kangaroos, marsupial saber tooth cats, giant sloths, gone. Same with NA 15000 years ago. So, what man is doing now to the environment is peanuts to what happened in the past. We are probably the most gentle species around compared to what we were in the stone age.

Reply to  Dr. Bob
July 20, 2016 12:06 pm

“Wherever man went, mega fauna died”
So correlation always equals causation? And I’m pretty sure NA had some sort of climate change 15K year ago, maybe that changed things for mega fauna?

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Paul
July 20, 2016 7:20 pm

There’s some pretty good evidence that an extraterrestrial object hit NA and may have contributed to those extinctions.

Reply to  Dr. Bob
July 20, 2016 1:23 pm

I think that you mean that the greenies want to return us to the state of hunter/gatherers. It is certainly true that they more hunter/gatherers live in a specific location, the less flora and fauna survive to hunt and gather. This is why farming developed to produce more food in less area.

Reply to  isthatright
July 20, 2016 4:30 pm

The green zealots can go “back to Nature” as hunter-gatherers any time they please. Please post video. I’m sure we’ll all be interested to see how much fun it is to die of tetanus or rabies or the flux at age 36 in the absence of sanitation, vaccinations, and antibiotics. Take yourselves out of the gene pool, guys!

Reply to  isthatright
July 20, 2016 9:27 pm

When they come for peoples “stuff”, they will be tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail.

Brian Rackley
July 20, 2016 11:37 am

Largest misconception of climate change is the co2 factor. That will cause problems in 100 to 120 years. The real factor is us turning on a dryer to dry our clothes or driving our cars that give off over a 195 to 220 f. and now think how many are in use right now. Other causes cell phones, lights, air conditioning, laptops, and anything that we use that creates heat that’s released into our atmosphere. We’re all to blame, even me. I’m at fault as well. I do everything as much as the next person. We need to fix this. I think we have alot less time then what their projecting. I give it 20 maybe 40 years for our own extinction. It was 85 degrees in the Arctic Circle at Dead Horse. We’re in trouble. We can’t keep on acting like nothings wrong. When this happens there’s no planet to move to, no quick fix, and no place to run to. Our children or grand children will die. We need to wake up the world. Now! Please share this post. We need to be self aware!

Reply to  Brian Rackley
July 20, 2016 12:43 pm

I sincerely hope you forgot the /sarc tag.
In the event you are serious, you might want to consider the implications of principle called the conservation of energy, particularly the part that says it cannot be created.

Reply to  Jtom
July 20, 2016 2:42 pm

Oh you are funny. Everyone here is dead serious.
BTW please haul warmunists to Greenland, like Australia used to be used. They’ll soon start valueing warming.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Brian Rackley
July 20, 2016 2:50 pm

The US consumes about 100 EJ of energy every year. The US uses between a quarter and a fifth of the total human production of energy — call it 500 EJ every year. The total solar flux over the earth is about 300 EJ/hr. Two hours of sunlight falling on the earth is more than the total annual human conumption of energy. The ratio of solar energy falling on the earth to human production is about 5,000::1. Human energy production is a negligible.portion of the the total energy available at the earths surface.

Ross King
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
July 20, 2016 3:21 pm

Walter …. I’ve been rabbiting-on about the ratio of insolation to anthropogenic warming endlessly, BUT YOU JUST NAILED IT!
Better still if you look at the *variance* of insolation over Sun-cycles … anthropogenic warming is nothing compaared with the VARIANCE, let alone the quantum.
In short, the sun varies its radiative heating a *huge* factor greater than we burn, yet we are bothered about infinitesmal marginal additions.

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
July 21, 2016 2:28 am

The issue is not the relative amount of energy that is contained within fossil fuels that are consumed annually compared to that of solar insolation. It is the impact of CO2 emitted when fossil fuels are consumed on the radiative energy balance of the earth.

David Ball
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
July 21, 2016 11:59 am

Chris, please explain your post. I am not clear what you mean.

Reply to  Brian Rackley
July 20, 2016 9:30 pm

Thanks for the belly laugh Brain.
You so crazy!

Reply to  Brian Rackley
July 21, 2016 5:39 am

It was 85 degrees in the Arctic Circle at Dead Horse. We’re in trouble.

Give me a break, Chicken Little. Dial down the hyperbole.
There are Elders among the Inuit who remember their grandparents telling them about when the Arctic Circle was warm, ice was non-existent, and they hunted in canoes. If you’d ever spent any time among the Inuit, you’d know these are common stories, nothing unusual at all.
There’s a museum north of the Arctic Circle that I went to while cruising the fjords 20 years ago (in Tromsø, IIRC) where they had huge fossils of palm trees that existed all over the northern tip of Norway. The museum spokesman said the arctic was tropical at one time.
Just last November they announced finding an entire tropical forest in Svalbard, well north of Tromsø in the Arctic Ocean, Fossilized Tropical Forest Found — in Arctic Norway.
Here are fern fossils found in Sweden:

Reply to  MRW
July 21, 2016 8:33 am

Furthermore, Chicken Little,
The temperature right now in Deadhorse, AK: 41 F. Nowhere near 85 degrees.
It was 84 F and 82 F on July 13, and 14. Big whoop. Look at the entire month.

July 20, 2016 11:49 am

But note, it’s been quite a while since the cable news shows, including CNN and MSNBC, have been pushing it. They’ll have an hour long special on it twice a year or so but it’s not the daily drumbeat it used to be.
It’s more the international globalists who are pushing it hard.

Reply to  Maggie Gray (@imaggination)
July 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Seems to be a subset called The Guardian, these days . . .

Roy Jones
July 20, 2016 12:03 pm

“This one-sided flow of “news” will shape public opinion slowly but surely, creating support for bold measures by President Clinton.”
I’m more optimistic. People are getting tired of being lied to by “experts”. The classic example was last month’s Brexit vote in the UK. The vast majority of the economic “experts”, all of the broadcasting media, most of the print media and the leading political parties all told us that it would be a catastrophy if we voted to leave the European Union. The answer was a two fingered gesture and a vote to Leave.
You can fool people for a while, but then reality kicks in.

July 20, 2016 12:05 pm

Professor John Turner of British Antarctic Survey says that the stabilisation of the ozone hole along with natural climate variability were significant factors in regional cooling phase in Antarctic Peninsulacomment image

July 20, 2016 12:09 pm

“The more immediate danger is runaway climate change. A rise in ocean temperatures will melt the ice caps and cause the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide from the ocean floor. Both effects could make our climate like that of Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees.”
— Nobel laureate physicist Stephen Hawking on “Good morning Britain on NBC News’ U.K. news partner, ITV News in May 2016.

Wow – that’s embarrassing.
Hawking is a genius.
But it does show how a little knowledge ( outside his field ) can be dangerous.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Turbulent Eddie
July 20, 2016 12:45 pm

He may be a “genius”, but wrt climate, he’s an idiot. Furthermore, the man has an ego the size of a dinosaur, which allows him to believe that his “genius” in say, physics is transferrable to all other spheres of knowledge.

Jason Calley
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
July 21, 2016 8:12 am

Hey Bruce! Science now covers so many extensive areas that even a genius physicist cannot understand every area. My guess is that Hawking — like most people, even scientists — has based his conviction on the opinions which other people have espoused to him. I doubt that he has done any extensive study on his own in the matter. It would be very interesting to listen to a conversation between Hawking and Freeman Dyson on the likelihood of CAGW.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Turbulent Eddie
July 20, 2016 7:39 pm

As a leading authority on climate change my great concern for the future is the accidental creation of a black hole from ultra dense human excrement in the sewer system, causing me to be sucked through my toilet some morning with very little warning. Please do not flush any “peer reviewed” climate studies!

July 20, 2016 12:13 pm

The reference from Nature Geoscience mentioned in Larry Kummer’s post is dated 28 July 2013. But later that year, 12 Dec 2013 , Nature published the following:
-“Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets”-
The editor’s summary (the paper is paywalled) reads:
-“The Sun is gradually increasing in brightness on a geological timescale. This could lead eventually to a ‘runaway greenhouse’ effect on Earth, a state that occurs when a planet absorbs more energy from the Sun than it can radiate back to space. The oceans would evaporate and the climate would warm to Venus-like temperatures. Jérémy Leconte et al. use a three-dimensional climate model to show that the threshold for the initiation of a runaway greenhouse is considerably higher than that previously estimated by simplified one-dimensional models. A crucial factor is cooling caused by changes in atmospheric circulation that more than offset cloud-induced warming.”-
Even Goldblatt , as you say , admits that anthropogenic effects are unlikely to produce a runaway effect , yet the media ignores Lecomte , but is later obsessed by an incautious and indeed totally unbelievable comment from Stephen Hawking .
Hawking has access to the best science archives and science brains on the planet and he should have been aware of the ongoing disputes surrounding the issue of clouds wrt AGW.
Those in powerful positions should consider carefully what they say, given the manic nature of modern journalism.

Reply to  mikewaite
July 20, 2016 1:48 pm

“But later that year, 12 Dec 2013 , Nature published the following:…”
I don’t understand your “But”. Lecomte agrees with Goldblatt, as does most of the p-r literature (which is, as you note, ignored by clickbait-hungry news media. Here is Lecomte’s bottom line:

“With this new estimation, the inner edge of the habitable zone for Earth like planet in the Solar System is pushed inward to 0.95 AUs which means that the Earth should not enter a runaway greenhouse state before at least 1 billion year. However the question of whether or not the warming-induced increase of the stratospheric temperature and humidity could cause the loss of the oceans by atmospheric escape before the runaway greenhouse is triggered, as suggested by some 1D studies is still subject to debate. Our simulations tend to invalidate this scenario.”

Here’s a link to a open version of Lenconte (2013).

July 20, 2016 12:15 pm

I will say only one thing, to these guys.
Please keep going in explaining climate of our Earth, by implying the “effectiveness” of such understanding of the situation and its science by comparison with Venus, Mars or whatever, but please keep it wider, and not selective on a cherry picking medium, widen it please, at least at the minimum of considering and including Europa too, a glacial body, more similar to Earth in principle than any other planet or moon in this solar system, lots of Ice there , supposedly made up of H2O.
The actual science, the physics and the hypothesis explaining the Earths climate will fail to explain the Europa, even when it still stands there and challenging our “science” and understanding, regardless, to a point that it will make the meaning of the “goldilock” zone not that meaningful at all.
And further more it will show that relying in Plank’s low to estimate or calculate the actual effect of radiation in the climate variation is like contemplating the efficiency and the success of a sniper towards a fly or a mosquito pestilence……
No matter how good a sniper cold be or considered, still his efficiency and success towards flies and mosquito is very near to Zero,,,,, the Occam’s razor…..
The way the Plank’s law, is used and abused in “climatology” will fail totally with Europa, in a very strange way….. !

John Harmsworth
Reply to  whiten
July 20, 2016 8:16 pm

The “habitable zone” guesstimates are based on quite simple defining characteristics of solar output and planetary distances. The prospect of Europa or similar moons being friendly to life outside of the basic zone of habitability is dependent on warming provided by gravitational interaction with the very large planet it (or they) orbit. “There are more things on Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your (or my) philosophy.”

Reply to  whiten
July 20, 2016 9:34 pm

Whiten, put down the bottle, take a few aspirins, and get some rest.
Tomorrow you can perhaps explain what five commas in a row mean.
And try to speak in coherent sentences next time, eh wot?

Science or Fiction
July 20, 2016 12:35 pm

IPCC got a truly amazing theory – imagine that mankind pulled the earth out of the Little Ice Age – long before we really started to emit CO2 into the atmosphere. Notice that there are virtually no natural forcing in their theory:

Science or Fiction
Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 20, 2016 12:37 pm

This one should be easier to read I guess.comment image

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 20, 2016 8:20 pm

No mention of water. Must have used it all to make IPCC kool-ade!

Reply to  Science or Fiction
July 21, 2016 12:05 pm

There is absolutely no explanation as to why CO2 would increase in a cyclical manner before temperatures, nor is there any explanation as to why or how CO2 would decrease before temperatures to send us back into an ice age. This AGW theory doesn’t even begin to explain the ice age cycles.

July 20, 2016 12:58 pm

The important thing for warmunists is to stay on message. Whatever fights they might have amongst themselves, their messaging must be united. Since leftists are such strong advocates, and practitioners, of censorship it should come as no surprise that no one will step forward to criticize even the wildest of wild claims.
For instance, a Yahoo link to an article entitled “The Deeper Reason Many Intelligent Progressives and Independents Will Not Support Hillary Clinton”

This post is hosted on the Huffington Post’s Contributor platform. Contributors control their own work and post freely to our site. If you need to flag this entry as abusive, send us an email. For those who hope for swift unity in the Democratic Party, there are reasons to believe it won’t happen if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. While there are serious policy differences between Clinton and Bernie Sanders, a deeper fault line between their supporters must be acknowledged. Certainly the two candidates remain far apart on issues that matter to progressives and independents — fracking, the TPP, tuition-free public colleges, universal single-payer healthcare, racist policing — to name just a few. …

goes to:
Don’t bother going to it, it says “Editor’s Note: This post is no longer available on the Huffington Post.”
What’s that line from “Raiders of The Lost Ark”? “Wiped clean by the wrath of God”.

July 20, 2016 1:05 pm

“Humans? In 2300? At the rate we’re going odds are there WON’T be many of them and the ones that are there will be far too busy trying to survive to bother over history, other than to curse us.”
They may be cursing us in 2300, not for creating more than the green allotment of CO2, but rather for needlessly impoverishing a large percentage of the human race and simultaneously limiting prosperity to those socialist elites who run the bureaucracies which keep energy use minimal limiting food and impede upward mobility.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  isthatright
July 20, 2016 8:34 pm

The Benevolent World Government of Green Worldopia declares 2300 the 1st World Freedom day! No longer will people be forced to constantly choose! Whether or not to travel, what to eat or even what to believe. There’s nothing to eat, no transport except for the leaders and they’ll tell you what you can believe.

Reply to  isthatright
July 20, 2016 9:38 pm

You need to intone deeply when you say that date…like so:

July 20, 2016 1:33 pm

Hawking has to me become a big disappointment. Thought he was supposed to be an excellent mathematician and using those skills puverise the consensus. What gives?

Reply to  nc
July 20, 2016 1:53 pm

To paraphrase another Noble Prize winner — Richard Feynman — a scientist commenting outside his expertise is just as dumb as the next guy.

Reply to  donb
July 20, 2016 2:33 pm

Dumber. But what is the next guy commenting outside his expertise? Should I just shut up because my expertise is definitely not the reason why Mars is cold and Venus hot?

Reply to  donb
July 20, 2016 9:40 pm

I suspect it may have something to do with that million-mile wide continuous thermonuclear explosion up there in the sky…you know, that big hot burny-thingamahoozit.

July 20, 2016 1:51 pm

The problem with countering wild claims of future climate-induced catastrophe is that usually some degree of technical or scientific detail is needed. This turns off both the reader–viewer and the editor. I have tried. Wild unsubstantiated claims are easier to publicize. This highlights the shallowness of our public media.

Reply to  donb
July 20, 2016 9:43 pm

They have become more adept at making their predictions post-dated until long past their own lifetime is over.

July 20, 2016 2:29 pm

400 ppm vs 960,000 ppm and 1 atm vs 90 atm. The difference is 20,000 fold. Venus has that much more CO2 in its atmosphere.
Now, of course 2x CO2 is the same as 20,000x CO2, give or take four zeroes. We might reach a Tipper point. I believe Stephen Hawking when he speaks ex cathedra. /sarc

Reply to  Hugs
July 20, 2016 3:55 pm

“ex cathedra”
Hugs, yes, you ARE being funny here. (i confess, i LAUGHED!) But, please, no gimp jokes, eh? Anthony himself has a disability and i’m not sure that he would appreciate your kind of humor here…

July 20, 2016 2:51 pm

“They’ll” win this aurgument because denying science, denying reality doesnt make it not so. 1 + 1 is 2. Basic laws of physics comply with the “commanding position” of the 97% of enviroscientists that follow the scientific method. Be skeptical of whether a fish tank needs an aerator all you like. Your gold fish are gonna sufficate without it.

Christopher Hanley
July 20, 2016 2:59 pm

“The news has become stranger since the climate policy debate has decoupled from the IPCC …’.
This is just cherry-picking some ludicrous examples of over-blown news reporting in order to make the IPCC appear reasonable.
The news has not become “decoupled” because AR5 is full of unsubstantiated alarmist claims, speculation and ruinous remedies:
‘Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions, global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 from 3.7 to 4.8°C with a range to 7.8°C when including climate uncertainty.’ (AR5 WG3 SPM p. 8)
‘Heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, and water scarcity pose risks in urban areas for people, assets, economies, and ecosystems (very high confidence)’. (AR5 WG2 SPM)
‘Impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability’. (AR5 WG2 SPM p. 6)
‘More severe and/or frequent extreme weather events and/or hazard types are projected to increase losses and loss variability in various regions and challenge insurance systems to offer affordable coverage’. (AR5 WG2 SPM)
‘Some unique and threatened systems, including ecosystems and cultures, are already at risk from climate change and the number of such systems at risk of severe consequences is high at 1.6°C’. (AR5 WG2 SPM)
‘With increasing warming from today, some ecosystems may be at risk of abrupt and irreversible changes’. (AR5 WG2 SPM).
‘Several components or phenomena in the climate system could potentially exhibit abrupt or nonlinear changes, and some are known to have done so in the past’ (AR5 WG1 Chapter 12)
‘Temperature increases in excess of about 1 degree C above pre-industrial [are] projected to have negative effects on yields for the major crops (wheat, rice and maize) in both tropical and temperate regions’. (AR5 WG2 final science draft, Chapter 7, p.3)
‘Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts’. (AR5 WG2 SPM p. 14)
‘Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks. Multiple lines of evidence relate climate variability to these forms of conflict’. (AR5 WG2 SPM p. 20)
‘A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other stressors. [CURRENT RATE OF EXTINCTION IS 100 x NATURAL BACKGROUND RATE: S. Pimm, Science, May 2014.] Extinction risk is increased under all RCP scenarios, with risk increasing with both magnitude and rate of climate change’. (AR5 WG2 SPM p. 14)
‘Within this century, magnitudes and rates of climate change associated with medium- to high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 6.0,and 8.5) [i.e., all scenarios except the best-case RCP2.6] pose high risk of abrupt and irreversible regional-scale change in the composition, structure, and function of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, including wetlands.’ (AR5 WG2 SPM)
‘Should a sizeable fraction of this Arctic frozen carbon be released as methane and CO2, it would increase atmospheric concentrations, which would lead to higher atmospheric temperatures. That in turn would cause yet more methane and CO2 to be released, creating a positive feedback, which would further amplify global warming.’ (AR5 WG1 FAQ 6.1)
‘Pathways that are likely to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels…
would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of the century.’ (AR5 SYN SPM Headline Statements).

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Christopher Hanley
July 20, 2016 8:41 pm

One staggers under the sheer weight of this load of baloney! To quote Bob Ucker,”Just a bit outside”!

Reply to  John Harmsworth
July 20, 2016 9:46 pm

Hey, quite denigrating baloney!
I would call it hogwash, but even most pigs do not have that much crap all over them.

Reply to  Christopher Hanley
July 21, 2016 11:47 am

Everything you quote is from the AR5 Summary for Policymakers (SPM), which was rewritten to satisfy NGOs and third-world governments looking to grab some dough from first-world countries over one week in Yokohama during September 2013, if you will recall.
Many of the real scientists who actually contributed to the full 3000-page AR5 objected strenuously to many of the SPM’s statements, which ran counter to the full AR5 WG2 report.
Judith Curry discusses the draft of the full report:
Dr. Tim Ball discusses the SPM:

Dr. Ball quotes official IPCC reviewer, David Wojick:

Glaring omissions are only glaring to experts, so the “policymakers”—including the press and the public—who read the SPM will not realize they are being told only one side of a story. But the scientists who drafted the SPM know the truth, as revealed by the sometimes artful way they conceal it.
What is systematically omitted from the SPM are precisely the uncertainties and positive counter evidence that might negate the human interference theory. Instead of assessing these objections, the Summary confidently asserts just those findings that support its case. In short, this is advocacy, not assessment.
The IPCC also guaranteed the prediction of increasing CO2 and its negative impact using economic models deliberately constructed for a predetermined outcome, just like the climate models.

Christopher Hanley
Reply to  MRW
July 21, 2016 1:33 pm

What you say might well be true but as is often said the IPCC ‘has no scientists’, it is a policy-making body; Larry’s piece is about IPCC policy and the reportage which even at its most bizarre form is not far from what is claimed and recommended in the reports.

Dan Pangburn
July 20, 2016 2:59 pm

Warmists are convinced that added atmospheric CO2 is making the air warmer which allows more water vapor which further warms the air. It is obvious to anyone paying attention that added water vapor absorbs more terrestrial thermal radiation warming the air but it took a gazillion dollar experiment to reveal it to NASA http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html. And then they erroneously decided that the added water vapor must have been caused by added warmth from added CO2.
A simple analysis using existing data easily demonstrates that the measured temperature trajectory since before 1900 is nearly perfectly matched (better than 97%) with no need for significant influence from CO2 http://globalclimatedrivers.blogspot.com.
Apparently NASA got cause and effect backwards. Instead of warmer air allowed more water vapor it’s more water vapor has caused warmer air. IMO coming years will show the effect on low altitude clouds and average global temperature to be self-regulating..

Robert from oz
July 20, 2016 3:14 pm

The English transported convicts to Australia most crimes were petty , when the CAGW fraud finally gets exposed for what it is lets round up the warmist lying “scientists” govt officials and various media and send the to the ice free Greenland for the rest of their lives .
So they can lie on the beach sipping coconuts .

Reply to  Robert from oz
July 21, 2016 10:20 am
Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 21, 2016 1:02 pm

That is a ridiculous argument. The real threat the earth faces is the coming ice age, that is a near certainly. Building wind and solar farms leaves us totally unprepared for the real threat we face. CO2 has NEVER caused catastrophic global warming, even at 7000 ppm. An ice age is an almost certainty.

July 20, 2016 3:29 pm

Climate change has literally been proven beyond a doubt to exist, so it is no longer an opinion. The facts are that the last year that the world was colder than average was 1976. Since then, every single year has seen rising temperatures on a steady basis. Sure, we have time…it’ll be a LONG, LONG time from now before anyone alive today sees anything noticable beyond hotter summers and milder winters. This, however, does not change the fact that eventually, we will have a huge problem. And to play Devils advocate, let’s I’m 100% wrong (along with the entire scientific community) and climate change is, for the most part, a myth. Would it be the worst thing in the world to work for cleaner air and oceans anyway? Shouldn’t we attempt to curb pollution, especially in the form of CO2 emissions as much as possible anyway? I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sure that no one in the history of the world has ever been upset over clean air.

Dan Pangburn
Reply to  Summerpig
July 21, 2016 10:13 am

Believing that CO2 is a pollutant is profoundly uninformed.

Reply to  Summerpig
July 21, 2016 10:22 am

“Climate change has literally been proven beyond a doubt to exist,”
Does anyone disagree? History is the story of climate and weather, over all time horizons.
Nice strawman argument. Always a good distraction to toss in a thread.

Dirk Pitt
Reply to  Summerpig
July 21, 2016 3:35 pm

No one in clear mind is doubting climate changes. It’s been changing for billions of years. But if you want me to subscribe to your cult of gross exaggerations, perverted science, and mass deceptions, my only response is my middle finger raised up high.

Reply to  Dirk Pitt
July 22, 2016 2:07 pm

you won that debate handily.
notice there is no more argument?
you were cogent, concise – even eloquent and addressed the pertinent matter with great perspicacity.
if everybody followed your example, this b.s. would be over fast.

David S
July 20, 2016 4:17 pm

I like it when warmists claim we are doomed. We,ve passed the point of no return. That the damage is irrevocable. Why? Because if that’s the case we can stop throwing money away trying to fix it. The sooner people realise that it’s too late to do anything if they are right and not worth doing anything if they are wrong the sooner the world can concentrate on real problems like health , poverty , terrorism etc. Recognise the futility of trying to change the climate and do something worthwhile with our resources.

Ross King
Reply to  David S
July 20, 2016 4:47 pm

Bjorn Lomborg was good on this in his book: “Let’s Cool it” (??) must reading for every thinking person.
Humankind – across the board — is an expedition into the unknown and that’s axiomatic. We are where we are and we know not what’s round the next peninsula. We can’t stop and reverse track whence we’ve been ‘cos where we are is better than before, and the extrapolation thereof offers even better in terms of improving the World’s ills.
The Alarmists are a side-bar to the march of progress for mankind. I vote for more-of-the-same, which is better ‘everything’ to do with the health & welfare of Humankind.
Where’s *your* vote?
P.s. It just occurred to me — an amateur, armchair philosopher! — that every generation has had its angst about the next, and prescriptives for fixing what our generation sees is wrong going forward. This is an eternal process, the melting-pot comprising a spectrum from Doomsdayers, Hysterics, Alarmists/ChickenLittle-ists, Middle-Roaders/Pragmatists/Realists (me!!), thro’ to the lowest-of-low mannipulators whose primary aims are benefitting their narrow, self-claimed “professional” position, personal wealth and prestige, grabbing any news-worthy cause that advances both.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Ross King
July 20, 2016 9:03 pm

I hope you’re right, Ross. I have always thought that it is a race between economic progress with associated enlightenment and economic collapse with attendant war, disease and ignorance. Progress means we will manage to develop the capability of getting materials from recycling, space or the oceans and our population will level off. We could collapse to a point where economic activity will not support research or innovative industrial endeavour and the whole world becomes hungry and ignorant. I think of Dickens’ children, Want and Ignorance, from A Christmas Carol. That was a warning to the richest country in the world as cheap energy (coal) was beginning to transform the world. What if they banned coal 150 years ago?

Tsk Tsk
July 20, 2016 4:24 pm

You fools don’t understand. Just this year, just right now have the alarmists achieved their goal of total message control. Before this skeptics ruled the narrative for decades. Decades!
You, in the back, stop laughing. It’s serious this time! Woe be unto us! If only we had heeded Larry’s advice and tested the models against data.
Nothing has changed in years. The new sovietenviro man has had the commanding heights in academia and the popular press for decades. The fact that Paul Ehrlich can show his face in public proves my point. This piece is just doom mongering about doom mongering.
If you want something *new* to worry about, then I suggest you look at the imperial presidency and an unaccountable bureaucracy. The EPA has grown into an uncontrollable monster. There’s your doom, not the long-lost battlegrounds of Penn State and the Columbia School of Journalism.

Ross King
Reply to  Tsk Tsk
July 20, 2016 4:53 pm

Don’t “Happy”, be “Worried”.
Those hungry for ultimate POWER will hitch themselves to any useful-looking ‘train’ in pursuit of it.
Al Gore?

Reply to  Tsk Tsk
July 20, 2016 5:53 pm

@Tsk Tsk,
You think it’s time for us fools to start taking things seriously ?
Where you been, the fools been taking it seriously for years.
I’m not sure you understand.

July 20, 2016 5:05 pm

It’s pretty clear from the literature that there is a steady increase in global temperatures. Just because the poor use of the Earth to Venus imagery for climate change has grown does not mean it is not a concerning issue. This issue should be on the front of news outlets to keep people cognizant of the issue.

Reply to  Billy
July 21, 2016 10:23 am

” This issue should be on the front of news outlets to keep people cognizant of the issue.”
You are missing the point. Lies don’t help. The more important the issue, the greater the need to stick with the facts.

July 20, 2016 5:43 pm

“Nobel laureate physicist Stephen Hawking on “Good morning Britain on NBC News’ U.K. news partner, ITV News in May 2016.”
I can’t possibly be the only person on Earth that recognizes a man who is tied to a wheelchair, exists on artificial life support and speaks through machinery is likely clinically depressed and not someone you should pay any attention to concerning the survival of the human species? Are you all mad?
Maybe some of his physics is OK, perhaps useful. As a cultural leader, no. Prognosticator? Nt a chance.

Reply to  Bartleby
July 20, 2016 9:52 pm

What, pray do tell, is useful about a mess of handwaving over whether or not black holes can evaporate.
And who says information cannot be lost from the Universe, anyway?
” All these memories will be lost, in time, like tears in rain.”
Where is the information on the size, shape and positional arrangement of the raindrops which fall in the ocean, stored?
I tell you where…no-where.
That’s where.
Like the information stored in my brain after I die.
Talk about hogwash!

Reply to  Menicholas
July 21, 2016 11:29 am

I couldn’t have said it better. You have a gift for poetic expression (and old SF movies…)

Reply to  Bartleby
July 21, 2016 11:57 am

Read* David Deutsch’s ideas on a typical place in the universe compared with those of Steven Hawking.
*David Deutsch on Infinity and Infinite Knowledge.

July 20, 2016 6:03 pm

Venus is an awful analogy. A far better one is Mars. It has a thinner atmosphere but a greater CO2 ppm. There is no water vapor, so you can better control for other GHGs. What you find is that Mars has extreme temperature swings between day and night, demonstrating that CO2 does little to trap heat.

July 20, 2016 6:10 pm

BTW, I’m still waiting on someone to explain how 1.6W/M^2 of 15 micron IR can warm the oceans. H2O saturates the absorption at that wavelength all the way up to 3km according to Modtran. Don’t we have to first explain why the oceans are warming before we blame CO2?

July 20, 2016 6:18 pm

According to the geological record, CO2 has been as high as 7000ppm, and has NEVER caused CAGW if the past 600 Million years. CO2 has a natural OFF switch in its absorption. The marginal radiation absorbed decreases logarithmically. Regardless of the sun’s output, CO2 absorbs outgoing IR, not incoming visible light. Daytime temperatures are determined by visible light, so the cooler sun argument doesn’t hold when combined with the diminishing absorption of CO2.

Robert from oz
July 20, 2016 6:38 pm

Speaking from the aspect of someone who is not all that well schooled was originally taken in by the CAGW meme / religion I am amazed at why we don’t spend our efforts pointing out the simpler easier to understand easier to prove to the layman science .
My point being the lie about how the oceans are becoming more acidic , now you don’t need a PHD in yuk to understand that a ph of 8.1 is not acidic and it’s a long way from being acidic .
So if they’re lying about this what else are they trying to hide .
Our BOM and your equivalent have been systematically changing past historical temperature recordings from a warmer past to a cooler past in order to claim hottest ever .
I’m sure there are other examples but easy to prove easy to explain and in their words the truth is undeniable .
Catch them out on the small things and more and more sheeple will change back to people .
No one yet has been able to counter me on the acidity argument and its made people realise if their lying about this what else are they lying about .

Reply to  Robert from oz
July 20, 2016 9:57 pm

What else are they lying about?
Everydangdiggitydogthing they can think of.

Reply to  Robert from oz
July 20, 2016 10:10 pm

BTW, a PhD in yuk sounds more useful that whatever the warmista chuckleheads been studying on.
The laughs are more predictable.

July 20, 2016 7:16 pm

“The more immediate danger is runaway climate change. A rise in ocean temperatures will melt the ice caps and cause the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide from the ocean floor. Both effects could make our climate like that of Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees.”
— Nobel laureate physicist Stephen Hawking on “Good morning Britain on NBC News’ U.K. news partner, ITV News in May 2016.

While I feel for Hawking’s devastating medical problems, I maintain my belief that no sane, competent physicist who investigates this issue can honestly claim to believe in CAGW. Too much in the way:
1. no hotspot
2. less upper atmosphere H2O, not more.
3. more radiation to space, not less.
4. 4.3 billion years of stable climate (not unchanging, just stable without any runaway) despite meteor strikes, supernova explosions, and supervolcanoes, to name three.
The theory simply isn’t credible. But “believing” it is necessary to be a media darling. Much more sympathy for Hawking’s need to be a media darling than for the rest of the pack, but them’s the facts.

Reply to  Ron House
July 21, 2016 11:45 am

Well, why not breakout the tinfoil and recall Hawking speaks through a machine? Hard to know what he really thinks? You could be listening to SkyNet for all you know…

William R
July 20, 2016 8:10 pm

If we’re doomed anyway, then why bother trying to do anything about CO2? Make up your mind liberals, are we helpless, or do we have control over the weather? Of course liberals have a fantastic ability to claim that CO2 emissions are the greatest threat to mankind just15 minutes after stepping off a transatlantic flight, so such twisted logic is nothing new.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  William R
July 20, 2016 9:19 pm

If we shut off all the cars and all the lights and stop producing food, Mother Earth might forgive us and let us live a week or two before it returns to the perfect state it was in before horrible people showed up and ruined everything. But the Green people have the secret sauce to survive and thrive without leaving footprints in the green, green grass where they will live in peace with the animals. Like Bambi!

July 20, 2016 8:36 pm

I don’t see any evidence that the “news has become stranger”. All that is presented is one news story from a British Sunday tabloid (hardly a newspaper of note) and one personal narrative in the New York Magazine about the current debate as to whether or not geologists should define a new age which ends with a hopeful belief that human change is good. If that is all the evidence there is (unlikely given the need for the media to
sell papers etc) then the argument is false and if there is more evidence then it needs to be present.

Reply to  Germinio
July 21, 2016 10:32 am

(1) “I don’t see any evidence that the “news has become stranger”.”
It was a framing statement to the opening of a brief note (this isn’t a paper in EOS).
(2) “All that is presented is one news story from a British Sunday tabloid (hardly a newspaper of note)”
Keep those eyes closed! This was a report of a statement by one of the world’s best-known scientists in an interview on NBC News, with the headline from the UK’s #8 newspaper.
(3) “and one personal narrative in the New York Magazine ”
Looking at the reactions of individuals give us an understanding of how people react to the news. If you read newspapers, you will see this is a common tool of journalists.

Johann Wundersamer
July 20, 2016 10:45 pm

Both effects could make our climate like that of Venus, with a temperature of 250 degrees.”
Venus is the latin nomen for the greek Aphrodite, the goddess of love.
So ‘Venus’ ought to be a ‘Vena’ to be feminine.
why has the latin godess of love to be male.

Reply to  Johann Wundersamer
July 21, 2016 10:46 am

People speaking English (a mess of irregular forms) can’t criticize the occasional irregularities in Latin!
Here’s an explanation of how Venus got a masculine form: http://www.unrv.com/forum/topic/7255-juno-and-venus/

Johann Wundersamer
July 20, 2016 11:07 pm

Fabius, you didn’t get that the sheer weight of venus’ atmosphere column
holds venus in brownian physics :
The tighter the atmosphere / molecules pressed -> the more collisions of molecules -> the more energy accumulated.
Sun’s happy to renew outgoing radiation.

Johann Wundersamer
July 20, 2016 11:20 pm

Feel free to correct me where I’m wrong.
That’s a discussion about real world. No political assembled lists of ‘Abweichler’s

Johann Wundersamer
July 21, 2016 12:32 am

And that’s what fabia maxima knows :
My advice to skeptics — which has been ignored — has been for the skeptics to work together and more effectively. Their origin as hobbyists — not for work or political reasons — prevents them from mutual defense (which the alarmists do with incredible effectiveness), raising funds (the vast sums of “denial” funding is a myth), or effectively fighting the alarmists (with a few exceptions, such as those mentioned in this post).
For example, by challenging climate scientists to test the models.
I suspect an effective campaign could be decisive. As it is they rely on technobabble (any highly technical argument is technobbble to the general public) and conspiracy theories. Sadder still, is that they thing they’re winning.

July 21, 2016 4:01 am

“The clouds of Venus are mostly sulphuric acid (not water vapor) — a powerful greenhouse agent.”
How is there supposed to be a “greenhouse effect” when almost no sunlight reaches the surface?

Reply to  Tony
July 21, 2016 4:47 am


Reply to  Tony
July 21, 2016 10:48 am

I don’t know if you are serious but — heat trapped in the atmosphere will warm the surface.

Reply to  Editor of the Fabius Maximus website
July 24, 2016 8:57 am

Not if it is coming from the plant’s core via the surface.

July 21, 2016 7:15 am

Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
“Earth DOOMED by climate change which could burn us alive, warns Stephen Hawking” by Sean Martin in The Daily Express, 31 May 2016.
“There is no support for this in the IPCC’s reports and little (perhaps none) in the peer-reviewed literature. There are papers clearly saying the opposite, such as “Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates” by Colin Goldblatt el al, Nature Geoscience, August 2013 — Gated. See the press release here. Excerpt…

July 21, 2016 8:44 am

A high level of fear is needed for organizations like the UNDP to sell their agenda

July 21, 2016 8:56 am

The general public is smarter and has more common sense than AGW promoters think; which is why
crying wolf is not a strategy that works. I think level heads will win in the end. People need good information to make informed decisions.. More accurate and truthful info is slowly getting through to the publics attention.

July 21, 2016 10:14 am

It does not matter what the American people think when it has already been decided in Party meetings in Phoenix and in the claimed mandate list that Hillary points to in January. Everyone else is fly over country.

July 21, 2016 12:47 pm

The reality is that despite all the CO2 in the atmosphere of Venus, there is no evidence of a radiant greenhouse effect. The high temperature at the surface of Venus can all be accounted for by the thickness of the atmosphere of Venus and its proximity to the sun.

Guy Lockwood
July 22, 2016 2:17 pm

I have read this site for over 10 years now and it is brilliant .Genuine comment. First time I have posted on here.

July 22, 2016 4:09 pm

Well from my itty bitty point of view here at the bottom of the lowest circle, I would like to advocate for an impartial media climate detective, someone like Holmes, Friday, Columbo, etc.
Just get the facts.
If nothing else it would make for a great series.

July 23, 2016 3:02 am

The whole of the Western World is confounded by this problem.
You Americans are trying to provoke WW III through the use of anti-Russian ‘propaganda’ and wilfully ignoring all the evidence that it is the West parking tanks on Russia’s lawn rather than the other way around. You are obsessed by conquering Russia. Grow up……
You are ignoring all the decades of Western imperialism, aggression, organisation of coups etc etc when claiming that ‘Islam’ is the dominant problem facing the world. It is actually the US/West’s support of Wahhabi Islam extremists, through the Saudi Royal Family and associates, through the Statelets of Qatar, Bahrain etc etc. You are obsessed by controlling the world’s oil. Grow up.
You are ignoring the effects on agricultural land of never-ending uses of pesticides, fertilisers etc and its resultant loss of soil fertility. Obsessing as you all do about GM Crops etc etc. You are obsessed by control all life forms. Grow up…..
You are all ignoring the effects on the majority of people of this false binary choice between capitalism and socialism, when actually it is a choice between neoliberalism and fascism. You are obsessed with suppressing democracy. Grow up……
There is no end to the mind controlling propaganda going on in the West.
Every time you read a newspaper, switch on the TV, read the internet it’s there.
This site has its own clear line too, even if it doesn’t realise it.

Reply to  rtj1211
July 24, 2016 8:00 am

Wild claims re CAGW are made without reservation or counter argument by the BBC because all the senior managers in the corporation have zero knowledge of science (physics, technology etc) and policy was decided at an early stage that the consensus IPCC view should prevail that the science for CAGW is settled – no counter argument is aired.

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