[Note, I don’t necessarily agree with the conclusion this publication, as it smacks of barycentrism, which I don’t give any credence to, but it does discuss some other concepts, and I thought it might make for an interesting and entertaining discussion – Anthony]
Guest essay By Brian T. Johnston,
Abstract
Researchers have long suspected a link between climate variations on the earth and the changes on the sun, especially the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the earth’s climate. Others have speculated that the periods of the sunspot cycle are related to the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn due to the fact that the that the period of Jupiter is 11.86 years, which is similar to the sunspot cycle of 11.8 years and the periodic conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn approximately every 20 years. While these appears to be strong links there has never been truly solid evidence to correlate these divergent cycles. This article shows that there is a relationship between all of these cycles, but that there are also powerful influences associated with Uranus and Neptune. It is demonstrated that the fundamental economic cycles of the world are based upon the cycles of the planets as is the timing and magnitude of the sunspot cycle and the also the changes in the earth’s climate which are at the foundation of the world’s economic cycles. It also shows that even though all of these cycles are linked the cycles of the sun are not the causes of the world’s economic cycles, but rather the cycles are driven by the changes in the electromagnetic climate of the solar system that appear to be associated with the interactions of the planets.
Keywords: Planetary Cycles, sunspots, climate change.
The Cattle Cycle, Sunspots, Climate Changes and the Orbital Interactions of the Gas Giant Planets
By Brian T. Johnston, Bsc., E. Eng T., EM. Eng. T., Bsc. Man. Eng. T., Bsc. Bus. Admin.
The agricultural cycles are fundamental to the world’s economies and are the primary catalysts which lead to social changes and wars. At the foundation and perhaps the most studied of these cycles is the Cattle cycle. As a part of my research into the various links between the planetary cycles and the general cycles of activities on the earth I came across an article on the Samuel Robert Noble Foundations website from 2002 on the Cattle Cycle entitled “Drought, Economy Have Affected Cattle Cycle”, by Steve Swigert. which had a chart that illustrated the idealized Cattle Cycle between 1974 and 2005[1]. I immediately noticed the similarity between the shape and timing of the curve and the sunspot cycle and the relative positions of Jupiter and Saturn during this period. The article mentions that the cycles of droughts had affected the cattle prices and that the ensuing wars and disruptions following 911 were the contributing factors. (See chart 1.)
Electromagnetic changes in the environment have been shown to affect a wide range of biological systems. Emergency ambulance statistical data accumulated in Moscow during March 1983-October 1984 have been analyzed. Diurnal numbers of urgent hospitalization of patients in connection with suicides, mental disorders, myocardial infarction, defects of cerebrum vessels and arterial and venous diseases have been examined. Intensity and duration of planetary geomagnetic storms were used as magnetic activity indices. Comparison of geomagnetic and medical data rows has shown that at least 75% of magnetic storms caused increase in hospitalization of patients with the above-mentioned diseases on 30-80% at average. The dependence of the value of biotropic effect on the duration of effect and intensity of magnetic storm is observed.[2]
A controversial body of literature demonstrates associations of geomagnetic storms (GMS) with numerous cardiovascular, psychiatric and behavioural outcomes. Various melatonin hypotheses of GMS have suggested that temporal variation in the geomagnetic field (GMF) may be acting as an additional zeitgeber (a temporal synchronizer) for circadian rhythms, with GMS somehow interfering with the hypothesized system. The cryptochrome genes are known primarily as key components of the circadian pacemaker, ultimately involved in controlling the expression of the hormone melatonin. Cryptochrome is identified as a clear candidate for mediating the effect of GMS on humans, demonstrating the prior existence of several crucial pieces of evidence. One mechanism of magnetoreception is thought to involve a light-dependent retinal molecular system mediated by cryptochrome, acting in a distinct functionality to its established role as a circadian oscillator. It is hypothesized that the cryptochrome compass system is mediating stress responses more broadly across the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis (including alterations to circadian behaviour) in response to changes in the GMF. It acts as a stress response to unexpected signals to the magnetosense. It is therefore proposed that GMS lead to disorientation of hormonal systems in animals and humans, thus explaining the effects of GMS on human health and behaviour[3]
Six physiological parameters of cardio-vascular system of rabbits and ultrastructure of cardiomyocytes were investigated during two planetary geomagnetic storms. At the initial and main phase of the storm the normal circadian structure in each cardiovascular parameter was lost. The asynchronicity was growing together with the storm and abrupt drop of cardiac activity was observed during the main phase of storm. The main phase of storm followed by the destruction and degradation of cardiomyocytes. Parameters of cardiac activity became substantially synchronized and characterised by circadian rhythm structure while the amplitude of deviations was still significant at the recovery stage of geomagnetic storm.[4]
Previous research showed, most notably in the University of Colorado’s unpublished study of the relationship between the orbits of Saturn and Jupiter and the sunspot cycle that there was indeed a connection between these two cycles.[5] In this study they were able to show that there was a statistically significant relationship between the angular positions of Jupiter and Saturn and the sunspot cycles’ variations. They also refer to historic studies going back to the nineteenth century, notably by Carrington, which theorized that the positions of the planets had an effect on solar activity. The University of Colorado study proposes a tidal effect, but this is very hard to prove through conventional physics. This presentation was largely based upon the work of Nicola Scarfetta of Duke University and his research into planetary cycles, sunspots and climate change. 5,6,7,8,9,10 Similar models were previously put forth where these various cycles affecting climate variations were put force earlier by Theodor Landsheidt who also invoked planetary tidal forces.11,12,13,14,
Associations have also been demonstrated across wider health studies, correlating geomagnetic activity with the total number of deaths. Correlations have also been reported between solar cycles and longevity, although such findings remain equivocal. A further series of studies have revealed associations between the solar cycle and flu pandemics, and a similar relationship was recently reported with papillomavirus infections. Relationships have also been observed between geomagnetic activity and sudden infant death syndrome and epilepsy. 1[6]
It appears that the cause of this is in part electromagnetic and that the planets are cutting the lines of force of the interplanetary magnetic field and feeds back this energy back upon the sun causing the observed phenomena. NASA has observed electromagnetic conduits between the earth and the sun and they have also observed pulses of energy being released by the earth’s own magnetic field as result of these interactions. [7]The background electromagentic field of the solar system is much denser, by about 100 times, than what would be expected and there is of yet no explanation for this variation.[8] It would appear from the observations that I have made that the planets are acting as amplifiers for the interplanetary magnetic field and that the conduits that have been observed between the sun and the earth are also present between the sun and the other planets as well.
Recent scientific studies involving DNA, water, the environment and magnetic fields, lend support to the hypothesis that magnetic fields can carry biologically relevant information.[9] The authors of a 2011 study conducted by Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier et al., say DNA in their experiments teleported itself to distant cells through electromagnetic signals. Furthermore, they indicated that this information could instruct the re-creation of DNA when the basic constituents of DNA are present and coupled with extremely low electromagnetic frequency fields.[10]
Explaining movements in daily stock prices is one of the most difficult tasks in modern finance. The existing literature by documents the impact of geomagnetic storms on daily stock market returns. A large body of psychological research has shown that geomagnetic storms have a profound effect on people’s moods, and, in turn, people’s moods have been found to be related to human behavior, judgments and decisions about risk. An important finding of this literature is that people often attribute their feelings and emotions to the wrong source, leading to incorrect judgments. Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions. Misattribution of mood and pessimistic choices can translate into a relatively higher demand for riskless assets, causing the price of risky assets to fall or to rise less quickly than otherwise. There is strong empirical support in favor of a geomagnetic-storm effect in stock returns after controlling for market seasonals and other environmental and behavioral factors. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices. There is evidence of substantially higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.[11]
In order to try to unravel the connection between the levels of solar activity, changes in the earth’s climate and the positions of the planets I looked at the timing of the conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn and the number of sunspots at these times. I began with the assumption that the cycle would begin and end with these conjunctions and also with the oppositions. It was presumed that these would show the individual peaks in the sunspot cycle. I used the standard Wolf number graphs from 1749 to the present day and found that the general curve between the expected timing of sunspot minima and maxima in fact agreed quite well, the peaks were often phase shifted for periods of time and then would return to in-phase conditions. (See chart 2.)
By plotting only the timing of the minima and maxima of the sunspots I then compared this to the timing of the conjunctions, oppositions and quadratures of Jupiter and Saturn. (See chart 3.)
The first thing I noticed with the above graph is that there appeared to be a bunching up, a shortening of the cycles in the1850’s and the 1950’s. Of course the Jupiter and Saturn cycles showed no such harmonic peculiarities as shown in the graph below. (See chart4.)
If we take the curve Jupiter and the Saturn cycle and introduce a phase shift in the polarity of the cycles by adding an extended minima in 1895 and again in 1985. An extended maxima was added in 1855 and in 1955. When we compare the two the maxima and minima agrees in fourteen out of seventeen cycles where the only anomalies occur near to the points where the polarity changes. (See chart 6.)
The dynamo of Jupiter and Saturn must be created by the planets cutting the lines of force of the interplanetary electromagnetic field as the two planets orbit the sun. (See image 1.)
At times they amplify each other and at other times they cancel each other’s fields out. This would also seem to explain where the additional energy that is observed to exist in the interplanetary magnetic field comes from. This polarity change appears to occur in the decade following the conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter. The same phenomena is seen to be observed in the polarity change in the 1950’s, only this time in 1955 there is a conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus. The conjunction of Saturn and Uranus occurred a little earlier in 1941 and this was at the same general time frame as the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction. As a result of the close timing of all three conjunctions this did not stimulate a polarity change. As result the conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus was responsible for the delayed phase shift in 1955 resulting in an extended maxima. In 1853 around the time of the first observed polarity change there was another conjunction of Saturn and Uranus. The largest polarity changes that are seen in the harmonics of the sunspot cycle occurred in the periods around 1855 and 1945. This is a period of two Saturn and Uranus cycles once more.
The heliospheric current sheet is a three-dimensional form of a Parker spiral that results from the influence of the Sun’s rotating magnetic field on the plasma in theinterplanetary medium.[1] (http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/helio.gif)
The University of Colorado studies’ conclusion was that the tidal effects caused by the conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn were the prime energizers that regulated the solar cycle. The problem with this being wholly gravitational in nature is that polarity changes due to the conjunctions Saturn and Uranus on very predictable time scale. In electrical systems this is quite easily accomplished. The conjunctions merely act as a switch which reverses the flow of the the electrical circuit. In the Colorado study they suggest it must be a type of gravitational amplification unknown in modern physics.
I examined the relationship between the gravitational tidal effects of Jupiter and Saturn in relation to the magnitude and timing of the sunspot cycle and I found it did not follow strict gravitational formulae. If we use the mass times the distance squared the effects are too small to measure. Another problem was that where to begin the cycle. I noticed that the last few maxima of solar activity cycle occurred when Jupiter was between sixty and ninety degrees of ecliptic longitude. I presumed from this then that the peak could be taken to occur at a given ecliptic longitude for the position of Jupiter at the time of greatest maxima. This appeared to be at 270 degrees of ecliptic longitude, which happens also to be in this era the position of the galactic center. What I found was that if you took the ratio of the mass of Jupiter and Saturn respectively as 134 and 40 multiplied by the sine of half the angle between each planet and the center of the galaxy and then add the two resultants together you get very good approximation of the timing and the magnitude of the sunspot cycles. However, it suffers from the same problem of phase shifting as seen above.
Pv=134sin(PhiJu/2)+40sin(PhiSa/2)
Where Pv is the predicted value for the number of sunspots and Phi is the angle between the observed position of Saturn (Sa,) or Jupiter (Ju) to the center of the galaxy at 270 degrees of ecliptic longitude.
The harmonization of the two separate cycles discussed here is not as simple as merely adjusting the tidal cycle by the same pattern as the phase shift in the Jupiter and Saturn cycle by using the same Saturn/Uranus conjunctions. You have to take a different set of conjunctions and the effect is much less dramatic. You must add three years to the minima which occurred in the mid 1920’s and to the minima which occurred in the late 1980’s you take away the three years and the pattern falls into perfect alignment, except for the period in the 1920’s, which is out of phase. The peak in the 1930’s is slightly out of phase, but the rest is a very good match. In 1927 there was a conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune and in 1990 there was a conjunction of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A T-test gives a correlation of 0.86 between the predicted and the actual Wolf numbers for the sunspot cycles between 1900 and the present era. (See chart 7.) When we compare this to the gravitational oscillation model of Landscheit we can see that there is in fact almost no correlation between the solar oscillations caused by the angular momentum of the planets and the sunspot wolf numbers over long periods of time.[12] (See Chart 8.)
The graphs make it very apparent that there is a solid link between the relative positions of Jupiter and Saturn, the University of Colorado presentation did not mention the crucial effects of the shifts in apparent electromagnetic polarity as this study has revealed. All of the physics presented here can be explained through electrical dynamos and circuits, but the power involved is so staggeringly enormous that these results are wholly unexpected. The NASA studies which have revealed the powerful conduits that exist between the sun and the earth are the most likely circuits upon which the electrical currents flow, but to affect the sun in such a powerful way as to actually parallel the storms that are Sunspot cycle staggers the imagination. High in the earth’s electromagnetic field the space probes have observed what NASA terms X-points which are where the lines of magnetism interact and through the stresses placed upon them actually break and release vast amounts of energy. This is known as a flux transfer event. (ibid http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30oct_ftes/) It is possible that near the surface of the sun where the conduits emanate from there are similar X-points where the bands of magnetism on the surface of the sun break and these may energise the storms on the sun. While this is partially speculation it demonstrates that there is a mechanism through which the observed effects can act. ( Hidden Portals in Earth’s Magnetic Field,
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/29jun_hiddenportals/ )
While these findings are extremely significant and demonstrate that the planets do indeed affect the sun in powerful ways we must still answer the question as to why the Cattle Cycle appears to be in some ways connected to the Jupiter Saturn Cycle. To find the answer to this question we need to see if there is a correlation between the climate of the earth and the cycles of Jupiter and Saturn as well as affecting the sunspot cycle. If we look at the variation from the mean temperature of the southern hemisphere from 1860 to 1990 and we compare it to the Jupiter and Saturn Cycle we get an almost perfect match. The same phenomena of phase shifting the polarity must also be used to correlate these cycles of these two disparate phenomena. An extra fives years of minima was added to shift the phase in 1865, 1910, 1935 and 1980. In 1860 there was a Jupiter/Saturn conjunction and in 1868 Jupiter was in conjunction to Neptune. In 1906 Jupiter was again conjunct to Neptune and again in 1932. Finally in 1984 there was another conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune and in 1987 there was conjunction of Saturn and Uranus. The match between the prediction and the actual temperature change is quite astonishing and while the temperature changes are quite small the significance of this finding can’t be understated.1 (see chart 8.)
The same procedure was used for the world as a whole from 1900 to 2000. It was discovered that the world as a whole did vary more rapidly more akin to the response of the solar cycle and their was only one polarity change during the Jupiter/Neptune conjunction in 1945. This relationship is not as coherent as for the Southern Hemisphere alone and less significant, but clearly correlated. R=0.6277 p=0.0030 (See Chart 9.) (All data courtesy of the NOAA via their website: http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Part2_GlobalTempMeasure.htm unadjusted temperatures.)
From these investigations we can see that the various cycles are not in complete agreement and the observed changes in the earth’s climate are not directly influenced by the sunspot cycle, but rather with the cycle of Jupiter and Saturn with changes in polarity occurring when Jupiter is in conjunction with Neptune at the end of the cycle. The possible mechanism for all of these changes may be the conduits formed between the sun and the various planets and when the conjunctions occur the conduits align causing a cascade of the X-points creating vast changes in the electromagnetic climate of the solar system. 12, (http://phys.org/news/2012-11-high-frequency-flux-events-mercury.html ) The changes in the the electromagnetic climate of the solar system may cause the atmosphere of the earth to heat up as a result of the energy input of the X-point cascades which injects energy into the earth system resulting in climate changes. These climate changes then create more, or less favorable growing conditions which in turn results in the economic cycles which are defined by the Cattle Cycle.
With these tools we should now be able to more easily predict the future for the economic cycles which affect the world’s economy and be able to predict astronomical influences over climate change. The curve of the temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere is very strongly linked to the Jupiter/Saturn cycle and not to the sunspot cycle. There is only a very loose correlation between these two factors as the polarity changes are not in sync. Nor is there a correlation between temperature changes and the magnetic orientation of the sun, which changes approximately every 22 years which is also out of sync. These factors are probably why the link between the sun and climate change has not been easily proven in the past, as it is not the prime cause of temperature variations on the earth which appear to be more closely related to the electromagnetic changes in the interplanetary field of the solar system. These changes now appear to be largely driven by the cycles of the outer gas giant planets and their geometrical relationship to each other, which is fairly easily understood through standard electromagnetic physics.
The fact that the sunspot cycle is determined by Saturn and Jupiter’s angle to the galactic center is an anomaly. It may be that the center of the galaxy acts as a negative electromagnetic pole which then polarises the galactic field. In electronics the transistor is the fundamental unit for amplification. The transistor is made up of three components, the emitter, the base, which injects the signal to be amplified and the collector, which receives the amplified signal. If we use this analogy the direction of the galactic pole acts as the emitter, and would represent a negative pole. The planets would be the base injecting small varying signals, just as is done to amplify sounds in a stereo. The amplitude of the sounds fed into the base of a transistor in a stereo is very small but is electrically positive and the variations in potential caused by the small changes in amplitude of the base caused a large change in the flow of electrons from the emitter to the collector. The collector is a ground and so is negative as well. This would be known as NPN transistor in electronics. Thus, when the electromagnetic flow of the intergalactic field is disturbed by the motions of the planets there is a proportionally much greater change in the flow from the galactic field to the sun. The working of the actual field are in fact more similar to the vacuum tube where the between the emitter and collector is a plate, which acts like the base and signals are fed into the plate which then greatly varies the flow between the emitter and collector through evacuated space in the tube making sounds which cannot be heard to power loudspeakers. The potential between the emitter and collector roughly estimates the degree of amplification. The intergalactic field is roughly 10-10 teslas while the sun’s field is approximately 10-4 teslas and so the potential difference is 106 teslas. Any positive potential which is injected between these two fields would then be amplified by a million times on the surface of the sun. As Jupiter and Saturn orbit the sun their respective fields amplify the potential when they are in conjunction to the center of the galaxy, or dampen it at that time depending on the polarity of the particular cycle.
Image 2 is of the equivalent electronic circuit that conforms to the observed phenomena of the electrical fields of the solar system. The circuit is a common emitter configuration which allows for abrupt changes in polarity in the circuit flow.
It seems the most apparent solution the root cause of all the related observed phenomena that the solar systems changes are electronic in nature and the solar system is a vast amplifier of the potential of the intergalactic field. This results is the very small signals of the planets being able to affect enormous changes in the solar fields’ activity and also the climate of the earth. This electronic action results finally in the changes to the economic cycles of the world characterised by the Cattle Cycle.
As a final observation the people have always looked to the sky to try to figure out why changes are occurring on the earth. Until the present time it has been nearly impossible to correlate any astronomical events with events on the earth. Now we can see that indeed the planets affect events on the earth in an extremely profound way. The Cattle Cycle drives most of the other economic cycles of the world and the stresses placed upon the system result in wars, famine and disease. All of these changes may be ameliorated by being able to predict what these changes will be in the future and to adjust the various markets to better handle the cosmic changes which are at the foundation of the entire system.
References
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18. CrossRefMedline Biofizika. 1995 Sep-Oct;40(5):959-68.[Biological effects of planetary magnetic storms]. Chibisov SM, Breus TK, Levitin AE, Drogova GM.
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20.http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2012/03/12/rspb.2012.0324.full#xref-ref-33-1 Are stress responses to geomagnetic storms mediated by the cryptochrome compass system?
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Table 1.
Simplicity of the J-S magnetic fields driver has not been surpassed by any existing hypothesis
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN.htm
If you look at the cattle price graph, above, you can see that the peaks are related to periods of higher fuel prices, 79 end of the Carter Years, 91, Kuwait and Desert Storm, 2005 Katrina, et al. Cattle price fluctuations have always been tightly linked to the cost of production inputs, particularly diesel. So it’s odd that the position of two very large planets should be so closely linked to the cost of diesel fuel.
Changes in climate alter the amount of diesel fuel required in the production process ?
Weather drives food prices, in total, In a trivial way, commodity prices drive other commodity prices, with the single strongest relationship to the price of crude, and the price of crude is driven by geopolitical issues as well as the changes in exploration and recovery technology.
Economic cycles tie all sorts of prices together. Correlation is useless. When money is scarce in recessions, most prices move together… ( though inferior goods go in the opposite direction but with the same timing).
So I would be astounded to NOT find cattle prices moving with oil and bread and corn and average wages and prices of pickup trucks. It just means the economy is cyclical and prices linked to it. I would suggest that about 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge would be needed to start saying any of it connects to solar cycles… and I am an Economist who thinks Jevons DID find a link between solar cycles and grain prices in India in his analysis…
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
@Indrodeep:
I will look for a copy of your book, as the topic interests me.
I do have to point out, though, that the idea of “as above so below” has been around for thousands of years, that Jevons wrote up his analysis of hundreds of years of British Empire India grain data in 1875, and that the connection between Saturn / Jupiter and sunspots has been around for about as long.
Due to that I think it a bit of a stretch to say that the “core idea” was “pirated from” your book. A more accurate statement will likely be that you both looked at the same pre-existing works and came to similar parallel points. Also note that looking at mechanistic connections of orbital mechanics with influences on the atmospheric system, and through that weather and gain prices, to the business cycle; isn’t “astrology”, which your book title advances… Our “fate is in the stars” is a quite different thing…
I think you would have been better served wihtout the “pirate” attack and with a simple bit of self promotion.
Perhaps something like “I explored this in my book … published 2009 ISBN xxxxxxx”
More effective and less off-putting…
I dont need bit of promotion for my book as stupid people like u may think of coz my books are already fully sold aal over the world and at present out of stock for last few years. If anybody pirates anything from my bokk then i will definitly claim that to be my original work, which was result of my hard work, not pirated from here and there like the present essay is.
Indrodeep
You gave me quite a chuckle with that second response.
I think EM was trying to be helpful
just my 2sense
Jupiter’s magnetic field is the largest structure in the solar system.
The largest ‘structure’ is the Heliographic Current Sheet.
The magnetospheres don’t matter as they all point away from the Sun, and any magnetic effect from them cannot travel upstream in the supersonic solar wind.
What is the speed of sound refered to here ? Does “supersonic” mean faster than the speed of sound at sea level in the earth’s atmoshere ?
What is the speed of propagation of a change in a magnetic feild ?
For once I am in agreement with you, Lord Kelvin.
Can’t speak about planets and orbits with any authority, but the the circuit shown is either incomplete or makes no sense at all, and the explanation of transistor operation, bases, emitters, collectors, and vacuum tube details and theory of operation are infantile and often … confused.
Ditto “confused” from an Electrical Engineering perspective as well.
Need to relearn how ” valves ” work. Ain’t no plate in the middle of anything acting like a bipolar transistor base.
Valves are voltage based, while bipolar transistors are current based. Even MOS transistors don’t work anything like valves, or like bipolars either.
And for an NPN bipolar transistor, the collector would not normally be a signal ground, it would be the place to get the amplified output current.
Now if the circuit was an emitter follower, then the collector would be a signal ground, but then the emitter output signal would generally be a voltage, with a voltage gain less than one.
Clearly you don’t know anything at all about electronic circuits, so you should stop using them as ” analogies “.
Especially on tubes where it looks like “emitter” is used for cathode, “collector” for the plate and “plate” instead of grid (that actually is a grid or wire screen). Just wrong, but maybe what a transistor guy would call them if uninformed by experience…
Also a lot of ‘It matches great until it doesn’t then added fudge fixes it’.
Brian T. Johnston claims that – “Image 2 is of the equivalent electronic circuit that conforms to the observed phenomena of the electrical fields of the solar system.” – and no further explanation. This last diagram has over-egged this pudding. What exactly is this circuit supposed to achieve ? Mr Johnston MUST explain that part further, or else his entire explanation becomes rather dubious.
That’s the problem: the circuit is gibberish – it does nothing.
Perhaps this diagram will make more sense in the context ?
http://www.gifbin.com/bin/1236241627_blueball_factory.gif
LOVE IT!
That’s wonderfu! Makes more sense to me than most circuit diagrams, too.
That’s as good a visualisation of a climate model as any I have seen. Brilliant. Even Mann-ual intervention is seen in places.
Nice diagram Mr. Hung Lo
Actually the circuit in image 2 doesn’t look funny, it looks like a pretty typical analog circuit.
Not a bad solution there Wun Hung, but I did find a couple of dead shorts in there that you need to fix !
g
Very impressive system! But have you determined its Lyapunov exponent?
Cyclomania strikes again.
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202011%20SH34B-08.pdf
Leif,
Interesting that Venus has about the same “tidal effect” on the sun as Jupiter and even earth+moon still have halve the influence of Jupiter.
One question: if we take the sun as a boiling mass, a small disturbance may have a (relative) large effect. Is there any indication of more solar flares when the three most important influences Venus, Earth and Jupiter are on one line towards the sun (or opposite to the sun)?
Not that I know of, although you can find claims about just about anything you like somewhere.
http://virakkraft.com/EMB-AM-Solar.png
EMB=Earth-Moon-Barycenter. AM of Venus is very similar. It’s not tidal, it’s Jupiter and Saturn accelerating Earth and Venus, i.e. accelerating parts of the mass they are orbiting.
lgl, this looks very interesting. Can you provide something that states clearly what is being plotted, with source refs for the data?
In particular, what is the orange line on the EMB graph?
Also, why do your vertical orange bars stop in 1800, does this relationship drift out of phase after that ?
It appears by eye that the EMB peak around 1990 aligns with a solar peak. This is the opposite to the bars you have marked where a trough in EMB aligns with solar peaks.
Mike
The green graph is from Semi, http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0903/0903.5009.pdf
I added the blue part because I didn’t notice Semi already had one going back to 1600 (or he made a newer version)
Mike
I have tidied up a little, using Semis AM-graph all the way
Thank LGL.
What is the possible link between Sunspots and the E-M barycenter angular momentum.?
Does this imply that gravity is variable? What else could cause such a synchronicity?
Ralph
Ralph
To me it seems obvious that when Ju and Sa accelerate parts of the mass they orbit (the inner planets) the rest of the mass, the sun, will be affected. It is the sun and inner planets that together ‘counter’ the free fall of Ju and Sa. But if you ask scientists like Leif S. they will say this is nonsense and that there is no possible link.
The example that made me reevaluate my belief was a person in freefall in orbit, what is there sensation of acceleration?
But I think the observational evidence of longer term (non-earth’s orbital shape related) cycles makes me think there is something happening.
I like the physics of magnetic fields to link planetary position to the Sun’s level of activity.
Each point is an orbital subtraction calculation of the mean anomalies of four planets Jupiter, Mars, Earth and Venus, taken on the 1st of January every two years from 1900-2012..
The shape of the orbital subtraction points resemble the shape of the ssn record.
Sparks,
I’d be interested in an expanded explanation of how you calculated this graph. I put a copy up in a page where we can discuss it further:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/08/18/orbital-subtraction-and-mean-anomalies-means/
I just find “orbital subtraction points” a bit unclear and would benefit from a formula or longer explanation of the method…
Scientific Astrology??
Having followed the relation between sunspot numbers and shortwave radio propagation, I have a bias towards thinking that variations in the sun will have some effect on earth’s weather and climate. I’ve seen a lot of hints about kinds and magnitudes of effects, but nothing unequivocal.
Don’t forget that the moon has a large tidal effect on the Earth. There is about 1/2 the effect of the wind on ocean overturning just from the tides (and overturning raises cold water and cools the place) Not consider that the lunar orbit changes, rather a lot, over thousands of years, and that the planetary orbits are all synchronized via the gravitational effects of the gas giants via orbital resonance effects over millions of years.
Essentially, the solary barycenter is a red herring and looking for TSI to change things is looking at a side effect at best. The big influence is the local shifts of gravity and tides from our orbit and the lunar orbit shifting; but since both are driven by the gas giants orbits, we have a confounder in that “they all come together when they come”. Is it solar wind, UV variation, lunar ocean tides, lunar air tides, lunar tidal crustal tides and volcanoes, etc. etc.? The answer is “yes” since all come in sync due to orbital resonance.
But don’t forget we have a solar system with extremely large and potentially variable magnetic field generators, with a Sun that also has a large variable magnetic field generator.
I too wanted it to be gravity, and maybe it is in part, but I think I’ve decided magnetic field lines is a more promising venue to research.
This sounds a lot like Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc to me in a number of areas. Of course, if you can distill this into a thing that will make predictions and those predictions are validated, you are doing a lot better than all the GCM models flying around.
The hypothesis that the solar magnetic field effects the temperature of the earth seems to be not disproved, but beyond that I think that there is a need to formulate a prediction model (even if only on a statistical basis) and then test against the future. Color me agnostic till then on the J-S effect.
“Truth is what works.” – William James.
Is see lots of post hoc correlations put together and I also see anti-correlations, but seems like a load of bullocks IMO.
For any hypothesis, it must make predictions; predictions that can be falsified with future observational data.
Your task: Certainly we know where the planets are going to be over the next 100 years to the precision these assertions would require to be mechanistically true to the claimed influences on Earth’s climate.
So: Make a set of predictions going forward 50 years, and check back here in 25 years (2040) and we’ll score you at half-time.
Until, then…. extreme skepticism with the conclusions presented by Mr Johnston need be applied.
Magnetosphere
Forces deep inside Saturn create a giant magnetic bubble around the planet, called the magnetosphere, which exerts a powerful influence on particles that float through space near the planet. Saturn’s magnetic field creates this bubble as material cycles deep within the planet’s fluid interior. In a similar way, Earth’s magnetic field creates a much smaller magnetosphere that protects us from harmful particles emitted by the sun and other space phenomena.
Outside Saturn’s magnetosphere, a million-mile-per-hour gale of particles from the sun, called the solar wind, spreads out through the Solar System. When the solar wind encounters Saturn’s magnetosphere, it streams around it, like a stream around a rock. So outside the planet’s magnetosphere, the sun’s magnetic forces dominate, while inside the planet’s protective bubble, magnetic forces of Saturn reign.
Saturn’s magnetic field has north and south poles, like those on a bar magnet, and the field rotates with the planet. On Jupiter and Earth, the magnetic fields are slightly offset from the planets’ rotation axes – this offset is the reason we say compass needles point to “magnetic north” rather than true north. But Saturn’s magnetic field is almost perfectly aligned with the planet’s rotation.
http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/assets/science/images/magnetosphere_graphic.jpg
http://saturn.jpl.nasa.gov/science/?SciencePageID=59
“For any hypothesis, it must make predictions; predictions that can be falsified with future observational data.”
Correct.
Formula linked in my comment above was devised around mid 2003 (published 8th January 2004) extrapolated beyond 2030, suggested for the SC24 SSNmax around 80 (monthly non-smoothed) so far so good. Two years later Dr. S predicted Rmax around 70, while NASA was still going for the strongest cycle ever.
Sorry, but an n=1 or n=2 is far too small a sample size on a simple metric like SSNmax. Error bounds of the prediction on alternative hypotheses and the null hypothesis also must be considered too.
Call me… skeptical. very.
well than, see you in n*11 years, where n>10 years (n is more than 10)
I’ll try again
well then, see you in n*11 years, where n>10
that looks a bit better.
If you see me in 110 yrs, I can promise you I won’t look like I do today.
More like Yorick the Skeptic.
When 900 years of data you have gathered, look as good you will not.
But Vuk’s formula does not just provide a simple metric like max SSN .
In particular, the polar field strength fits rather will over the 11 years since it was published.
The test of this formular will be the phase change in 2030 that is visisble in this top panel and lack of a negative excursion in his lower panel. J&S seem to account for the largest features of the solar pattern but at the point of minima like the coming decades and the early 20th c., the effect of other minor players will have a visible residual effect. It seems that the JS only formula tends to under-estimate the minima.
Hi to all above.
J-S magnetospheric (magnetic short-circuiting) feedback appear to be a synchronising factor of what may be more random oscillating process. To demonstrate that this is an electromagnetic feedback and not Newtonian drive I produced this simple diagram
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/J-S-angle.gif
Note centennial regularity (“sun was the same 100 years ago but climate is not” said Stanford solar sage) with the phase perturbations at 1810, 1913 and ‘predicted sometime in the early 2020s.
Remarks made above are valid, and I am fully aware of a very long list of shortcomings (I’ll keep quiet about that), but it appears to me that no other hypothesis has come any closer to physical reality, while predictive value could be considered ‘moderate’.
When a less complex and more accurate formulation is presented and demonstrated after n*11 years in future I shall return to this very page and accept a defeat.
Try adding the Earth, Mercury, Uranus and Neptune, their magnetic fields also modulate the Sunspot record, and one thing I didn’t consider is that there could be a galactic field, which would then setup a much longer cycle around Neptune’s position.
Look at the 1907 Solar Cycle, Mercury’s effect is quite visible, but note, it won’t be the exact period of it’s orbit as the other planets move as well.
that should be ‘early 2030s’
And the predictions for the global climate of the next few decades are what exactly? It’s a testable theory, right?
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you, it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
Though my book donot made any predictions for global climate for next few decades but it does contain predictions for economic activities for next 5 decades based upon my theory.
William Herschel noticed a correlation between low sunspot numbers and the price of wheat. (1801). At the time, the sunspot cycle had not yet been noted. (Schwabe .1843).
How about the price of Wheat Thins?
Remember, too, that Jevons did an extensive study of British Empire India grain history in 1875 and published a correlation or prices with economic cycles with sunspot cycles. This is a very old and very well trodden path that did not start with some book in 2009 …
In my econ classes of the 1970s we had a discussion of the Business Cycle and sunspot cycles and there have been stock trading “tip sheet” newsletters built on the sunspot /biz cycle link for as long as I can remember. It’s about as old hat as you can get. Then the Gas Giants as sunspot driver has been around since who knows when, but long long ago. “As above so below” dates from Roman or pre-Roman times, and I note in passing that StoneHenge was built about 4000 years ago (some bits early , some bits late, over a few thousand years) and was likely a giant observatory used to predict cyclical patterns of tides, weather, good and ill, and more. So folks have been watching stars and planets for prediction for a few thousands of years…
Oh, and Druids too. ( I have a “Master Druid” rating I picked up for fun…) But they, too, use nature as predictor and look to the skys.
So Indrodeep: “nice you have a modern summary”, but calling it “your idea” would be a bit rich…
I think anybody with minimal level of intellect and minimal level of understanding of english language can understand that this essay is not about establishing relation with sun spots and economic cycles. Whereas it is about establishing relation with sat-jup cycles with economic activities which is actually original work of mine published in 2009.
Secondly I am not older than S.Jevons who established sun spots with business cycles in 1875, nor i am claiming his findings atall.
The core idea of this essay is establishing relationship of economic activities with sat-jup cycles, which is my original work.
If u dont understand this much simple thing then i am sorry to bother a brain dead person like u. I dont want to argue with foolish people even if my work gets pirated, i thought that those who are participating in this blog are intellectual people and have reasonable understanding of english and subject as well. Sorry once again, to bother you. Enjoy the way u like, nonsense people like u who donot value original works donot make any difference to me .
“The Voyagers had a flashlight in the kitchen, and nobody was looking in the attic,” she remarks. “We noticed, while studying the draping of the galaxy’s magnetic field around the nose, that the heliosphere was much shorter than we anticipated.”
?itok=m90uytCW
Instead of being dominated solely by the flow of the interstellar material to create a long tail, the shape of the heliosphere is also affected by the solar wind jets emanating from the sun, said Drake.
“If there were no interstellar flow, then the magnetic fields around the sun would shape the solar wind into two jets pointing straight north and south,” said Drake. “The magnetic fields contract around these jets, shooting the solar wind out like squishing a tube of toothpaste.”
In the presence of the interstellar flow, these jets are bowed backwards, creating a crescent shape, as seen from the side of the sun. The jets erode in the presence of the strong interstellar flow, leading to two attenuated, short tails. This leads to a much shorter heliosphere of only about 250 times the distance between Earth and the sun, or about 23 billion miles.
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/two-solar-wind-jets-found-in-the-heliosphere
Again, this is irrelevant because magnetic effects cannot propagate upstream against the supersonic solar wind. Amazing how people keep heaping irrelevancy upon irrelevancy. I guess that just [sadly] shows the scientific illiteracy out there.
Leif, how has that been proven? Curious.
Leif. And what is your take on these flux transfer events at 8 minute intervals?
The speed with which magnetic effects can propagate in a plasma is called the Alfven speed, named after Hannes Alfven [who got a Nobel Prize for that discovery] see e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfv%C3%A9n_wave
The solar wind https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_wind
expands about 10 times faster than the Alfven speed [by direct measurements] corresponding to ‘Mach 10’.
Those events just happen. No particular and profound cause.
Leif, thanks.
The article by NASA, cited above, states that these flux transfer events have been measured and timed, and seem to be stable structures for short periods (8 minutes), linking the sun to the Earth, “something like a portal/conduit about the size of the Earth. Theres about 8 satellites measuring these structures, a few from the ESA.
The magnetic field lines link the Sun and the Earth all the times. The 8 minutes is just the timing of some random events and have no further meaning.
The time for light to travel from the sun to the earth is 8 minutes. Coincidence?
yes, coincidence. The solar wind does not know that we are watching it, so does not know to show structures for us to watch that are 8 minutes apart. It takes the solar wind 4 days to reach the Earth.
My thought is that it’s the field lines from all of the magnetic planets (Earth, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, plus Mercury’s iron core) they would all interact with each other, and at least when the Sun is switching it’s magnetic field, there would be a chance for the fields to imprint on the upcoming Solar cycle.
magnetic effects cannot propagate upstream against the supersonic solar wind.
====================================
the solar wind from the sun would be circular in the absence of the interstellar wind. but it isn’t. therefore the interstellar wind is affecting the solar wind. it is compressing the wind in one direction and stretching it out in the other.
Even if the magnetic fields from the planetary dynamo’s can’t reach the Sun, the Sun’s field lines will be pushed around as the planets move.
You can see the affect of Mercury in the 1907 Solar cycle, but it isn’t a single planet, it’s the ones that are either large lumps of Iron (Mercury, as all electrical engineers know moving a lump of iron near a coil changes both it’s magnetic fields and it’s inductance), or have their own powerful magnets.
Mercury, Earth and Uranus have the opposite polarity of Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune. So the field lines from Jupiter and Saturn will buck, but they would also want to couple to a Sun with a S/N magnetic field, Uranus and Neptune’s fields are also tilted, making it even more complex.
Very, very good Mr. Ren …
Needs repeating too.
Dr. S., isn’t playing with ALL 3 types of magnetic fields present…
1. Interstellar Magnetic Field
2. Interplanetary Magnetic Field/Helio current sheet
3. Planetary Magnetic Fields
What happens to the Interstellar magnetic flux left after it interacts with IPMF…
March 3, 2015
NASA-Funded Study Finds Two Solar Wind Jets in the Heliosphere
..“If there were no interstellar flow, then the magnetic fields around the sun would shape the solar wind into two jets pointing straight north and south,” said Drake. “The magnetic fields contract around these jets, shooting the solar wind out like squishing a tube of toothpaste.”
In the presence of the interstellar flow, these jets are bowed backwards, creating a crescent shape, as seen from the side of the sun. The jets erode in the presence of the strong interstellar flow, leading to two attenuated, short tails. This leads to a much shorter heliosphere of only about 250 times the distance between Earth and the sun, or about 23 billion miles..
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/two-solar-wind-jets-found-in-the-heliosphere
But I do have a question Dr. S., how does the solar gravitational function play with the planets when they enter the particle streams?
We know in particular the Earth orbits within the “upwind crescent” of gravitationally focused particles during our N. hemisphere’s summer months. While on the downwind side in N. hemisphere winter, Earth passes through the “gravitational focusing cone.”
Gravity does not play a role in the solar wind. The interstellar magnetic field never gets into the heliosphere.
[This site pest is simple to ID. It is the banned Socrates/beckleybud spammer. ~mod.]
lsvalgaard
August 16, 2015 at 6:40 pm
Gravity does not play a role in the solar wind. The interstellar magnetic field never gets into the heliosphere.
———————————————————————————————————–
Think bent, weakened polar fields Dr. S., for this Solar Cycle 24. What is the role of the polar regions and the movement of magnetic flux from poles to equator, then equator to pole and so on and so forth..
The interplanetary magnetic field is mostly being generated from equatorial regions and that not being very active either.
If the helio current sheet is rotating with sun and solar wind, field and densitys are lower this solar cycle, there must be substantial gaps in the heliosphere as well.
Rotation and current sheet tilt angle changes, just roll them interstellar fields right up and in?
off topic
the outer extent of the S. polar vortex reaches within 10 degrees of the equator at high altitudes. Is it possible for the S. polar vortex to extend its outer rings out of the southern hemisphere? Colder air pushing northward from the south.
Dog gone that west coast USA heat.. go figure
Gravity does not play a role in the solar wind. The interstellar magnetic field never gets into the heliosphere.
==================
interstellar neutrons might not agree.
even charged particles enter the earth’s atmosphere at the magnetic poles, because they are not crossing the magnetic lines of force. it would stand to reason that even charged particles in the interstellar wind can enter the heliosphere at the suns magnetic poles.
[This site pest is simple to ID. It is the banned Socrates/beckleybud spammer. ~mod.]
Ummm… A confused theory of everything?
Old Norwegian coping with new ideas
Here is some more research on the Climate Change and the markets.
What’s The Bright Spot for Investors in Global Cooling? Part II
https://oilandgas-investments.com/2014/top-stories/whats-the-bright-spot-for-investors-in-global-cooling-part-ii/
Unit Economics is the once firm I know of that will challenge the Climate Change nonsense.
I don’t know anything about Unit Economics, but it’s certainly a hard-hitting and quite well-argued piece.
Part 3 has an extraordinary graph showing NOAA data tampering / adjustments:
https://oilandgas-investments.com/2014/latest-reports/some-not-so-hot-facts-about-global-warming-research-global-cooling-part-iii/
I am beginning to think that quite possibly these data “adjustments” may be the biggest scientific fraud in history.
If a company acted like this – allowing people who have a vested interest to adjust key data on a massive scale – then the senior company heads would quickly find themselves behind bars.
Chris
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you, it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
Though my book donot made any predictions for global climate for next few decades but it does contain predictions for economic activities for next 5 decades based upon my theory.
@Indrodeep:
So you have put this up at least 3 times now? See upthread where I’ve pointed out the long long history prior to you of folks who had very similar ideas. This is a long and well trodden path. Claiming it as yours is at least ill advised. Claiming it piracy is near slander. Doing it many times is called “spam” especially in a self promoting mode…
Unless you can prove you are older than S. Jevons who did an analysis of Indian grain prices vs sunspots vs business cycles in 1875; or can show you were doing this prior to the “Astrological busniss cycles” newsletters of the 1970s that I used to see, I suggest a lot more modesty is in order.
I think anybody with minimal level of intellect and minimal level of understanding of english language can understand that this essay is not about establishing relation with sun spots and economic cycles. Whereas it is about establishing relation with sat-jup cycles with economic activities which is actually original work of mine published in 2009.
Secondly I am not older than S.Jevons who established sun spots with business cycles in 1875, nor i am claiming his findings atall.
The core idea of this essay is establishing relationship of economic activities with sat-jup cycles, which is my original work.
If u dont understand this much simple thing then i am sorry to bother a brain dead person like u. I dont want to argue with foolish people even if my work gets pirated, i thought that those who are participating in this blog are intellectual people and have reasonable understanding of english and subject as well. Sorry once again, to bother you. Enjoy the way u like, nonsense people like u who donot value original works donot make any difference to me .
I quit reading after they compared sun spots to climate change(which is probably true) but then linked that to the economy? The price of oil etc. has never been influenced by climate change, except for political gains. Oh wait. That’s what cAGW is all about, pure and simple BS politics.
Back in the 1800’s they noticed that the price of wheat followed an 11 year cycle.
When I was 12, I had a reading addiction. I would read anything. Among the stuff I read was some of the pseudoscience popular at the time along with real science. The difference is pretty apparent. This reads more like Von Daniken then Dirac.
40 years ago, when I was in the 9th grade, I had football coach teaching the health class I was in. He taught us about biorythms, like it was established medical-physical fact. We all unquestioningly lapped-it-up since it must have been true , coming from our teacher. Pure bunk presented as established incontrovertible fact. The 1970’s was a decade full of BS pseudoscience. Society and societal norms were in turmoil after a dozen years of sexual revolution, anti-war activism, declining family values. People were looking desparate for meaning in their lives.
I can just imagine that is what is happening in today’s high school biology and ecology classes vis-a-vis climate change alarmism. The 2nd decade of the 21st century seems to also be a decade of pseudoscience. Social norms are in turmoil and people are searching for some mystical meanings, hidden from view, in our short lives. Biorythms in 1975. Climate change-Save Gaia with carbon taxes in 2015.
Do not tell me you threw away your Mood Ring?
He taught us about biorythms, like it was established medical-physical fact.
============
Joel, are you implying that you don’t sleep on regular basis?
***********
1. Physiology. an innate periodicity in an organism‘s physiological processes, as sleep and wake cycles.
***********
noun, Physiology
1. a hormone secreted by the pineal gland in inverse proportion to the amount of light received by the retina, important in the regulation of biorhythms: in amphibians, it causes a lightening of the skin.
***********
(dictionary.com)
whoops! – dictionary definitions are for
a) biorhythm and
b) melatonin
you need to read the Wiki on Biorythms to understand how much like astrology it is.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biorhythm
My older sister had a mood ring and we all thought it was so “cool.”
Humans have an inate need to find patterns and cycles.
Shaman, witch doctors, and snake oil salesmen have always exploited this simultaneous human strength and weakness for their personal monetary benefit.
The recent run-up in cattle prices has at least as much to do with the increase in cattle feed prices due to so much corn being diverted to alcohol production, which makes it part of the political cycle, not the solar cycle.
“The recent run-up in cattle prices has at least as much to do with the increase in cattle feed prices due to so much corn being diverted to alcohol production, which makes it part of the political cycle, not the solar cycle.”
Exactly right!
Anything that is cyclic can be emulated using an electronic circuit. That is not evidence of anything other than the fact that electronic circuits are good emulating cyclic events.
While it is true that there is evidence that changes in magnetic fields can have an influence on biologic systems, especially brain function, the magnetic field changes were several million times greater than the sun’s magnetic field at the distance of the earth’s orbit.
Theodore Landscheidt made some amazingly accurate predictions of El Nino behavior while he was alive. He sold me on Barycentrism, which, I believe, for him weighed the rotating masses of all the planets, not just Jupiter and Neptune. When the center of mass of the solar system moved outside Sol’s diameter, interesting things happen.
I’d be surprised if the planets do not have a noticeable effect, though it will be difficult to unravel.
The problem with whole “barycentre” idea is that the barycentre does not have any mass at that point, therefore it can not do or cause anything.
In a two body system there is a special case where it lies on the line of mutual attraction and hence along the vector of the graviational force. This ceases to be the case as soon as there are three bodies in the system but many people understand this. The barycentre is not the centre of gravitational attraction in a multibody system. It can not DO anything.
I’ve spent quite a lot of time looking at these ideas and they all just work part of the time and require closing one and ignoring the bits that don’t work.
The barycentre concept has been a major distraction of effort for those trying to understand the effects of the planets.
The barycentre concept has been a major distraction
================
Human beings learned to predict the seasons long before they understood the cause. The shadow cast by the sun does not cause the seasons, but it most certainly does forecast the seasons.
Similarly, Barycentrism need not cause sunspots to successfully forecast them.
Science makes a huge mistake in insisting on a mechanism as a condition of prediction. This makes science captive to belief rather than observation. Belief gains the upper hand over knowledge, and we are back a pseudo science.
Mechanism should follow prediction. It should not be a condition of prediction. We still have no idea what causes gravity, yet we can predict the effects of gravity with great precision. It is pseudo science to insist we know the cause of gravity as a condition of predicting gravity.
This is all accounted for in the climate models correct?
Hahahaha
This holistic article is too much of a ‘trail mix’ for me. It is better to take the main effects on climate and then mention that it has also been thought to effect other things. I have trouble with your oscillations shifting out of phase. Myriad sine waves of different frequency are going to coincide periodically. If it is alignment of the planets causing the spots, they wouldn’t be going out of phase like that.
“.. the peaks were often phase shifted for periods of time and then would return to in-phase conditions.”
This is a confounding factor, not a support. The rationalizations for NOT coinciding is what is done when a theory has been betrothed to the researcher.
Also, with mercury, venus earth and mars (too lazy to calculate) a bigger(?) gravitational effect than Jupiter + Saturn (forget Uranus and Neptune). Why wouldn’t they cause the sunspots (conjunction of all 5 should cause a real chicken pox of spots). The differential between the galactic centre and the components of the solar system would be irrelevant (immeasurable).
More: if these cycles are the big Kahuna of climate why doesnt climate just swing up and down instead of having substantial periods of cooling and warming.
Finally, as others have pointed out, what do you predict is going to happen over the next 50 years or so – we know when conjunctions are going happen.
I agree to a point that the article is a bit like trail mix but then again trail mix is good for you when you are on the trail, certainly better than the peanut butter and jello sandwich that mainstream climate science is serving up.
We live on a rotating planet with an orbiting moon which collectively orbit a star in conjunction with a set of other planets. Our planet has a very large quantity of surface water interacting with the moon and the bordering continents. The star itself is a plasma fluid ball which in turn is influenced gravitationally by the planets as others here have noted and in relative terms quantified to some extent. Standing back from the matter and looking at temperature records and other data from our planet, the notion that climate metrics indicate are product of a lot of cyclical influences of varying frequencies and amplitudes is hardly irrational.
This leaves us with a potentially very, very complex mechanism that might affect our climate variability with all sorts of primary frequencies as well as interactive effects such as ‘beats’ between phenomena at similar frequencies and other second, third and higher order effects. An example might be planetary gravitational effects affecting sunspot and flare activity in turn affecting the disposition and arrival at Earth in interplanetary space of zodiacal dust as some Russians have speculated and other phenomena like incoming radiation that affect albedo etc.
It seems to me that this complex ecosystem of potential influencing effects is way too complex for the bulk of people involved in climate science who seem to be mesmerised by a single fish swimming around in its tank by itself with a hand full of pebbles in the bottom for context. It is perhaps little wonder that that fish is their pet fish and they have constructed a career and a life on examining the entrails of its movement and behaviour and Tweeting its every twitch and turn to the world.
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you, it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
Though my book donot made any predictions for global climate for next few decades but it does contain predictions for economic activities for next 5 decades based upon my theory.
Gary, you must have missed the part about the magnetic fields of the planets.
His hypothesis seems to be that gravity is inconsequential, but the various magnetic fields have an influence.
Venus and Mars have none.
Mercury has one, but it is less than 1% as strong as that of the Earth, although I believe it may be strong enough to deflect the solar wind somewhat.
Jupiter, Saturn, Urectum and Neptune do have fields,
Jupiter’s is some 20,000 times as strong as that of the Earth.
Saturn’s is almost 600 times that of Earth.
Uranus is about 50x, and Neptune a little over 25x Earth’s field.
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you, it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
Though my book donot made any predictions for global climate for next few decades but it does contain predictions for economic activities for next 5 decades based upon my theory.
See comment at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/16/the-cattle-cycle-sunspots-climate-changes-and-the-orbital-interactions-of-the-gas-giant-planets/#comment-2009804
where I point out the long history of corrolating the business cycle with solar changes and I would also point out that “Astrological stock prediction” has been around since at least the 1800s and I was seeing newsletters using it in the 1970s.
Claiming this as “piracy” and doing it a bunch of times is rather “SPAM” like and over hyped, IMHO
I stopped reading this article almost immediately. Though I am the type of person who thinks he is a lot funnier than other people think he is, still, I refuse to go dumpster diving looking for a joke to make. I have my unprofessional pride, you know.
Eugene WR Gallun
Not me.
Pass the Wheat Thins.
Okay, here’s some cheeze whiz-in-a-can too. Enjoy.
I prefer popcorn with my pseudoscience. Much healthier than crackers. I think Climat eChange is mostly cotton candy though. Like a hockey stick talk from Al Gore, it just leaves all sticky and looking for shower.
The important, refreshing and significant thing is that he is not wittering on endlessly about CO2 and imminent Doom. He is actually looking at interesting things,
“lsvalgaardAugust 16, 2015 at 12:47 pm
Again, this is irrelevant because magnetic effects cannot propagate upstream against the supersonic solar wind.
but
lsvalgaard August 16, 2015 at 1:49 pm The magnetic field lines link the Sun and the Earth all the times.
I guess that just [sadly] shows the scientific illiteracy out there.
I admit ignorance but I fail to see how the solar wind can “stop” a magnetic field working ”
and/or the fact that some input , somewhere, even if “overcome” does not alter the working of the system as a whole with ramifications to any effect, if one was possible in the first place.
Just feel this needs better wording.
The solar wind is a plasma and pushes the magnetic field away from the sun 10 times faster than a magnetic wave can propagate towards the Sun.
I never knew a magnetic field is a thing that can be pushed. Furthermore, I thought you said in the past that the solar wind is a (net) neutral plasma. How does a neutral plasma “push” a magnetic field. Is this not reification?
Also, I thought the solar winds accelerates from the sun. So how do you arrive at 10x faster? Does not this relative velocity increase with distance?
Not trying to be difficult … just trying to understand 🙂
The solar wind is a [neutral] super conductor. When a conductor is pushed into a magnetic field a current is induced in the conductor. The magnetic field of that current pushes on the other magnetic field. You know that a magnet can repel another magnet.
The solar wind does indeed accelerate a bit away from the sun to a speed of 400 km/second. The Alfven speed in the wind near the earth is about 40 km/second [we can calculate that from the magnetic field and the density of the wind], so about 10 times slower.
faster than a magnetic wave can propagate towards the Sun
==============================================
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_radiation
Classically, EMR consists of electromagnetic waves, which are synchronized oscillations of electric and magnetic fields that propagate at the speed of light. The oscillations of the two fields are perpendicular to each other and perpendicular to the direction of energy and wave propagation, forming a transverse wave. Electromagnetic waves can be characterized by either the frequency or wavelength of their oscillations to form the electromagnetic spectrum, which includes, in order of increasing frequency and decreasing wavelength: radio waves, microwaves, infrared radiation, visible light, ultraviolet radiation, X-rays and gamma rays.
Electromagnetic waves are produced whenever charged particles are accelerated, and these waves can subsequently interact with any charged particles. EM waves carry energy, momentum and angular momentum away from their source particle and can impart those quantities to matter with which they interact.
The solar wind is a plasma and pushes the magnetic field away from the sun 10 times faster than a magnetic wave can propagate towards the Sun.
============
since EM waves propagate at the speed of light, this would require the solar wind to travel 10 times faster than the speed of light.
The first several paragraphs may be suggesting a possible causal mechanism for astrology.
That’s the strongest part of the article.
Every civilisation came up with astrology. And it was clearly developed independently as South America used nebulae as well as star patterns (constellations).
So astrology must have had some benefit for society. Even though the mechanism was mistaken, it must have worked.
The rest of the article is touched by the more crazy.
Yep, must be something unknown in modern physics.
That shows a rare combination of extreme openness to imaginative ideas and an extreme lack of imagination.
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you, it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
Though my book donot made any predictions for global climate for next few decades but it does contain predictions for economic activities for next 5 decades based upon my theory.
Indrodeep:
See comment at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/16/the-cattle-cycle-sunspots-climate-changes-and-the-orbital-interactions-of-the-gas-giant-planets/#comment-2009804
where I point out the long history of corrolating the business cycle with solar changes and I would also point out that “Astrological stock prediction” has been around since at least the 1800s and I was seeing newsletters using it in the 1970s.
Claiming this as “piracy” and doing it a bunch of times is rather “SPAM” like and over hyped, IMHO
Why be scared of the word “barycentrism”, Anthony?? It is only a word, after all. And so is “astrology”. Both words, in fact, only represent theories – and theories are the life-blood of science. Words only scare me if, in peoples minds, they become objects of faith rather than theories.
I think Bryan Johnston has written an excellent paper – clear, intelligent, wide ranging; and well referenced to other scientific papers. No, I don’t “believe” him – but I listen and think.
Thank you. I agree with everything you say.
I find the closed minds on so many topics in these comment threads to be quite disturbing and disappointing, since in many cases, it’s clear the writers have done no research whatsoever into the theories they are condemning out of hand.
I am taking no firm position on this, but it is food for thought.
I would like to see some predictions made, so we can forward test the ideas presented.
It is perfectly legitimate to forward an hypothesis without necessarily predicting anything. A scientific paper like Brian Johnston’s, assembling, gathering, editing a lot of previously found facts and research as well as adding new, relevant information can be safely left there for others to work on and possibly add to. I think it is unlikely (to put it mildly!) that we know all there is to know about the interactions between gravity and electromagnetic fields, whether they be mild or immensely strong. . And each little creature (and plant?) in our biosphere is, in fact immersed in his/her/its tiny sphere of electronic goings-on. Is there any interaction? I sure don’t know. What is life??
“What is life” indeed.
What is consciousness?
What is matter?
What is energy?
Why should the speed of light have anything to do with the relationship between mass and energy?
What is the Universe expanding into?
What was going on a billion years before the Big Bang?
AndyE says “I think Bryan Johnston has written an excellent paper – clear, intelligent, wide ranging; and well referenced to other scientific papers. No, I don’t “believe” him – but I listen and think.”
I read and think; and when I see something I know to be spectacularly wrong it casts a doubt on the whole thing. His description of electronics is just wrong. His schematic diagram is just wrong. It’s like a child’s “find what’s wrong with this picture” puzzle. Nobody puts a capacitor in series with a battery. It’s stupid. It isn’t even theory. But don’t take my word for it. Build it and see for yourself. THAT is science! Repeatable experiments.
He’s got forward biased zener diodes in series with the emitter of a transistor. Why would anyone do that? Nearby are reverse biased zener diodes in series with the emitter of a transistor. Why would anyone do that?
You are welcome to your curiosity but you impute superiority to yourself that you “listen and think.”
“and theories are the life-blood of science”
NO! Theories are a dime-a-dozen. Research is the life blood of science, but it isn’t science until proven.
That throws out just about all of modern Astrophysics and the Big Bang Theory, dark matter and dark energy then.
None of which has been “proved”.
How anyone can pontificate about what Gravity can and can’t do when no-one even understands what it is and how it actually works is beyond me.
The same way they can conclude that because light is red shifted then the Universe is expanding, and therefore started in a huge explosion that created the entire Universe, and therefore there is no God and the Universe created itself.
Also the same way they can conclude that because simple molecules can self assemble into more complex ones, that life created itself and originated right here on Earth…on what was a molten ball of rock immersed in the vaccuum of space and flash fried then baked to a crackley crunch by the hard radiation from a million mile wide continuously exploding thermonuclear bomb. (But radiation is very dangerous to life, even in tiny amounts.)
The same way that people believe humans do and animals do not possess self awareness and consciousness.
Hand waving and supposition.
These can explain everything.
humans do and animals do not possess self awareness and consciousness. Hand waving and supposition.
==================
self-preservation certainly suggests awareness of self.
Well. That certainly explains Hillary’s cattle future play.
Personally, I am as afraid of barycenterism exactly as much as astrology. Both being equivalent
to peoples brains running out all over the floor. I think an “open mind” is not what is needed and is often detrimental to critical analysis.
But maybe they’re both superior to AGW, and certainly less dangerous.
astrology. Both being equivalent to peoples brains running out all over the floor
==============
How are the ocean tides calculated to such great precision?
It is not from first principles, which is hopeless at modelling a chaotic system like the tides. Rather the tides are calculated by careful observation and correlation with the position of celestial objects. Astrology plain and simple.
The Farmers Almanack’s weather forecast uses the planetary positions as well, but as science begins to decode the influence of the planets positions, some of astrology might become science.
Correlation does not mean causality nor does lack of direct correlation mean lack of causality when intervening variables are involved. We are often told that the periodicity of our sun cannot account for more than .1 degree change in temperature globally. With only two sources of heat, solar and geothermal, and a planet 70% covered with water, changes in either source can be absorbed, stored, dispered and let lose to the atmosphere, and that system is little understood, resulting in climate changes we cannot explain. Changes in the sources may be much more important than the absolute magnitude of those changes. Figure out the oceans and we will be much closer to understanding changes in climate and possibly not be in need of some of these more esoteric “explanations”. That, of course, assumes we can also get a better handle on under sea geothermal.
CO2 is the only game in town. Learn to love it.
*eyelash fluttering eyeroll*
So now you have astrologers posting their theories here. What next?
Better check the aspects of the 24th harmonic.
Spoilsport!
Where else could you read the sentence “Electromagnetic changes in the environment have been shown to affect a wide range of biological systems.”, followed immediately by; “Emergency ambulance statistical data accumulated in Moscow during March 1983-October 1984 have been analyzed.” ?
Well, in addition to theorizing about magnetism and earthquakes, the author also offers a range of full spectrum astrological services.
He also “discovered a vast new civilization that is not recognized by modern science” which he documents in his Atlantis in Canada website.
The Moscow Data is where I skipped down to the comments section.
Not bad though…on some articles I go there straight from the headline.
“The graphs make it very apparent that there is a solid link between the relative positions of Jupiter and Saturn”
They still have phase problems even after the baseless adjustments, it’s a dogs dinner.
Are we talking dry kibble, or that wet hash style stuff in a can?
Tripe actually.
May I quietly remind all you guys with one track minds that Newton spent most of his time studying all sorts of peculiar, psychic physics. We humans are perfectly able to have several theories in our minds at the same time. We may be completely wrong in one theory but totally right in another. So even if Brian Johnston is ridiculously mistaken in some respects he should still be listened to with respect. Each item of his scientific paper stands on its own and should be assessed on its own. Time will tell if the 2000 years old astrological theories reflect some facts or not. And with our modern science we are actually in a much sounder position to investigate the many (preposterous) claims.
Do not get me wrong Andy. My mirth does not indicate I have decided this article is 100% baseless or not worthy of consideration.
Did Newton have a sense of humor?
I have a feeling it is important to laugh at least a hundred times a day.
Or you might cry instead.
“We humans are perfectly able to have several theories in our minds at the same time.”
Good AndyE! In fact is that not a prerequisite for critical thinking as opposed to lockstep advocacy?
Given the methane emissions, a cattle cycle makes sense.
Is this a joke? April 1 already? The schematic diagram is a chaotic assortment of symbols. For starters, look in the lower right hand corner. Notice a battery in series with a capacitor. There’s a circuit that does absolutely nothing. How about reversed bias on transistors and a mish-mash of NPN and PNP all on the same power rail. Whoever drew it really likes zener diodes.
It’s a metaphor for the author?
Yes – and most of the collectors are shorted to the emitter reference rail. Function? I see no function here.
In Sweden we call the guest blogger´s “[Note, I don’t necessarily agree with the conclusion this publication….” BRASKLAPP due to a Bishop of Linköping Bishop Brask who in the days of Gustav Vasa declaring Sweden Protestantic wrote a note (sw. lapp) where it was said “härtill är jag nödd och tvungen” eng. This I need to do.
Think that was a wise decistion to write that Note….. that at least can clear doubts of the guest blogger’s potentiality knowing theories of science….
such irragularity in argumentation close to fallacies rarely seen ….. thanks God for that.
I noticed a typo in the 5th paragraph that begins “Previous research showed,…” “Scarfetta” should be “Scafetta”.
Yep @Michael2 Looks like April1st. I note the post has been up 10 hours and has far fewer comments than is normal on WUWT.
For me when the abstract says “(for sunspot patterns) there are also powerful influences associated with Uranus and Neptune.” I would hazard a guess that those relative tiny specks relatively a very very long way from the sun do not have “powerful influences”.
It’s the magnetic fields aiding and bucking the fields in the various dynamos(Sun, earth, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune, and Uranus ), as well as the iron planet (mercury ), you can see its effect in the 1907 solar sunspot cycle.
@Micro6500 Yes of course the sun is big enough to vary magnetic fields etc . on the planets, If that is what he meant then I wrongly misread it.
But no hangon he is talking about the planets affecting sunspots ” Others have speculated that the periods of the sunspot cycle are related to the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn”
This report would need to present extraordinary evidence to back up its extraorniary claim, along with a theory for the mechanism
As the sun is still massive compared to Jupiter : ‘Even though Jupiter is an enormous, massive planet, it’s much smaller than the Sun. The Sun accounts for 99.86% of the mass of the Solar System. ‘
For a while I had thought about barycenter, bit Leif convinced bme that was wrong, but the was a paper about the Earth’s magnetic field snapping to the field of the Sun, and that’s when it came to me it’s magnetism. So the polarity of the magnetics and as they move around the Sun the field lines go in and out of phase, Lief also said as the Sun is switching, it magnetic field basically shuts down, but a small amount of magnetism remains and that kicks off the next cycle. Since magnetic field lines from the planetary magnets fill space, they will either snap to the files of opposite polarity of planets, or buck, and mercury is a wild card, it’s a big iron core, so you end up with a big field of magnets imprinting the solar magneto when the cycle changes. The 1907 sunspot record show the effect of it quite nicely. But it’s all of the planet’s with dynamos that are required, they set the longer ~180 year pattern.
My comments do not necessarily support the mechanism of the article, but it could cause some of the effects of the Sun.
A couple other notes, I believe sunspots are from magnetic field lines.
And wasn’t there some cool hubble video of Saturn’s pole all lite up, aurora like, but much more compact.
Beware those correlations
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
The examples often are quoted by Dr. Svalgaard
Even most casual observer would notice the triviality of the claim, usually a dozen or less of sample points (mostly covering about 10 years span) on mainly linear events.
Your comments normally have higher fundamental value.
some of the “spurious correlations” shown in your link may actually be indirectly correlated. like margarine consumption vs. divorce rate, or US spending vs suicide rate. (requires a bit of imagination)
Astrology in fact has a strong basis. Seasons have an effect on a person’s disposition. Seasons are correlated to star position. Ergo, the stars position can predict a person’s disposition to a certain degree even though there are no cause-effect relationship.
lsvalgaard August 16, 2015 at 12:47 pm
“magnetic effects cannot propagate upstream against the supersonic solar wind.”
Not so !
Electromagnetic field shock created by magnetospheric short-circuiting of magnetic fields propagates equally well down and upstream, since its intensity and velocity greatly exceed the Alfven velocity of solar wind, which is just simply swept out of the way
This NASA video clearly demonstrates the above
http://www.nasa.gov/mpg/262351main_reconnect.mpg
agreed. EM fields propagate at the speed of light. the solar wind is a small fraction of this.
The video shows none of this travelling upstream towards the Sun. It is painful to watch a grown man gyrate in such ignorance.
Says unsupported, “There is strong empirical support in favor of a geomagnetic-storm effect in stock returns after controlling for market seasonals and other environmental and behavioral factors. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices. There is evidence of substantially higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.[11] …
11. Landscheidt, T. 2000. River Po Discharges And Cycles Of Solar Activity – Discussion. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 45 (3): 491-493.” see at
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02626660009492345
There is no mention of any correlation with stock market returns and geomagnetic/solar cycle in the paper cited, no empirics, nothing, unsupported statement – hypothetical theoretical assumption not grounded in reality or real world data like AGW claims. You can say things which seem plausible and are unchecked, but if true is another story.
There is clear evidence that the solar cycle impacts earth’s climate, maybe not by TSI variations, but by magnetosphere of sun oscillating impacting cosmic radiation hitting earth and atmospheric reactions, cloud formation, etc. Natural cycles occur, oceans, solar, etc. AGW claims correlation with CO2 with cherry picked time series data with only a spurious correlation due to left out data outside any t-test or statistically insignificant if looking at whole picture. Stock market prices and geomagnetic-storms, no evidence.
Please update me if a correct cite or evidence exists (not in 1700s), Ph.D. in economics/finance, yet know climate area and scientific theory and data.
There are so many things we do not know about natural generation of solar and planetary magnetic fields (Dr. Jeremy Bloxham Professor of Geophysics; Harvard University) and as consequence of the mutual interaction on the ‘generators’.
Most Americans are familiar with the beauty and the potential dangers of the Yellowstone.
But how many are aware that its magnetic field two strongest components are at 22 years i.e. the same as in the solar magnetic field, and wait the next one is ~ 60 years, yes the same one as it is found in the N. Atlantic’s sea surface natural temperature variability known as the AMO?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/YS.gif
Yes data is available at NOAA’s website.
Is science interested ?
No! Why should it be when the ‘science is settled’.
Seriously? Exactly how are we supposed to confirm an “unpublished study”? The links provided don’t appear to work.
And if the most notable study is unpublished, doesn’t this tell you something about the nonsense level of this whole topic?
Actually, this article appears to provide support for astrology. Isn’t it more likely that cattle farmers read the rubbish in their horoscopes and act accordingly than Jupiter and Saturn really have any effect?
The electronic circuit diagram at the bottom of the guest essay by Brian T. Johnston above is a pure joke. Nothing more. I am an electronic engineer M.Sc. and used to design complex electronic equipment. Therefore I assume the whole essay is a joke.
Ditto – BSEE, MSEE, thirty years as a circuits & systems engineer in military advanced development. This whole thing has got to be a joke.
DItto – BSEE
I didn’t know cows rode bicycles.
You may find this website by Brian Johnston, Bsc., E. E. Eng. T., E-M Eng. T., Man. Eng. T., F.R.C. interesting:
http://brianjohnston200.wix.com/skepticsand-science
http://brianjohnston200.wix.com/skepticsand-science#!contact/cudb
Another site by Brian Johnston you may find interesting:
http://atlantisincanada.com/
(My caveat / brasklapp: I don’t necessarily agree with the conclusion the above mentioned websites)
The gentleman carries no less than 5 titles! That should be a warning sign. Why five, when one is enough?
Ed Zuiderwijk (just PhD).
The core idea of relating economic cycles with Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been copied/ pirated from my book “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published in 2009. The theory has been thoroughly discussed by me in that book and it addresses all the concerns raised by you, it correlates the findings with 100 years data without fudging out sync errors with magic fudge. Although this article tried to pirate my findings without giving due credit to my book but true correlation and proper explanation can only be found in my work.
Though my book donot made any predictions for global climate for next few decades but it does contain predictions for economic activities for next 5 decades based upon my theory.
Indrodeep:
See comment at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/16/the-cattle-cycle-sunspots-climate-changes-and-the-orbital-interactions-of-the-gas-giant-planets/#comment-2009804
where I point out the long history of corrolating the business cycle with solar changes and I would also point out that “Astrological stock prediction” has been around since at least the 1800s and I was seeing newsletters using it in the 1970s.
Claiming this as “piracy” and doing it a bunch of times is rather “SPAM” like and over hyped, IMHO
“The gentleman carries no less than 5 titles! That should be a warning sign. Why five, when one is enough?”
What is the matter, you do not like alphabet soup?
Hey, ever notice there are almost never any z’s in alphabet soup?
Menicholas
W.oW., M.aN., Fa.R., O.uT
As for the article as a whole:
1) As Jim G1 says, Correlation does not mean causality nor does lack of direct correlation mean lack of causality when intervening variables are involved
2) The article seems to present no evidence for the physical hypotheses.
3) Anything can be modelled using electrical components. Bad logic to create a model, then hypothesize that reality has the same physics as the model, without any physical evidence.
4) I agree with Leif that gravity can have no effect on magnetic fields. For example, the electric force is 10 ^33 times stronger than the gravitational force. The word “pushes” seems confusing. Faraday’s law says that a conductor in a changing magnetic field will have an electric field induced such that current will flow to counter act the changing magnetic field. IOW, it will attempt to cancel it out.
5) Electromagnetics is real, but absent any physical theory or modelling, this article seems like a kind of pseudo-scientific astrology.
This is the reason it is important to read your horoscope each and every day.
Dear heavens, this is just too good for words:
“If we take the curve Jupiter and the Saturn cycle and introduce a phase shift in the polarity of the cycles by adding an extended minima in 1895 and again in 1985. An extended maxima was added in 1855 and in 1955. When we compare the two the maxima and minima agrees in fourteen out of seventeen cycles where the only anomalies occur near to the points where the polarity changes. ”
Gosh, you mean that if we take one set of data and change it in exactly the right places in a totally arbitrary manner we can fit it to another set of data?
Who knew?
And am I the only ranch kid in the bunch? THAT CATTLE PRICE GRAPH IS BOGUS!! To start with there is no such thing as a “cattle price”. I mean, what kind of “cattle” are they referring to? There are only prices for certain grades and weights/ages of cattle in certain places. Here, for example, are the “Cattle prices, monthly average. Sioux Falls boning utility cows, 800-1200 lbs ($/live cwt)”
and here is a longer term look at Nebraska prices for three types of cattle
As you can see, both of these are totally unlike the graph at the top of the page for the anonymous unspecified “cattle prices”. The author should have been put off immediately by a simple fact—the bogus “Cattle Price” graph stops 10 years ago, which anyone in the field should have recognized as a serious red flag.
w.
Obviously, the significance of the “cattle cycle” is mooooot.
I did notice the graph ending over ten years ago, but picking out one or another objection would require taking it slightly more seriously than I was prepared to do.
I have done a lot of trading in various commodity related stocks over the past ten years, but I did not even bother getting out charts to see why he might have ended where he did on that graph. It seems immediately obvious that the only reason someone would do that is if the relationship breaks down badly after that.
So I agree.
As for the fudge factor parts…I was reading it late at night, and was thinking: “wait…whaaa…huh? Wasatchasez?”
The good news is that steak seems to be getting cheaper this summer.
The conclusion reached in this article that economic activities are directly related to Saturn-Jupiter cycle has been propounded by me and it is already throughly discussed in my book titled “Stock Market Astrology & Astrological Theory of Business Cycles” published by Sagar Publications, India in the year 2009 (also available in amazon.com). I doubt that the logical inferences to prepare this article has been stolen from my work published 6 years back and sold worldwide. I expect the proper credit must be given to the original source.
Indrodeep:
See comment at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/16/the-cattle-cycle-sunspots-climate-changes-and-the-orbital-interactions-of-the-gas-giant-planets/#comment-2009804
where I point out the long history of corrolating the business cycle with solar changes and I would also point out that “Astrological stock prediction” has been around since at least the 1800s and I was seeing newsletters using it in the 1970s.
Claiming this as “piracy” and doing it a bunch of times is rather “SPAM” like and over hyped, IMHO
ok if u have been reading it over 1900 give me an authantic example or correct establishment of sat-jup cycle with economic activity and taht too described so eleborately and scientifically before the publication of my book in 2009. Show mw any one example of authentic work. Wheather u consider my post as spam or not it doesnt make any sense and even if I spam it doesnot defend the act of piracy. i cant understand how a intellectual person try to defend a act of piracy with foolish and baseless arguements like that he have been reading it since 1900, if so mention the name of the work with year of publication.
I even have doubts about the interactions of Jupiter and Saturn. I suspect all of these correlations are the results of curve fitting using Fourier analysis.
” I even have doubts about the interactions of Jupiter and Saturn. I suspect all of these correlations are the results of curve fitting using Fourier analysis.”
Alan, I thought I uploaded a copy of it, but go find Leif ‘ s Sunspot record for the 1907 cycle, not a lot of curve fitting required.
ferdberple
August 17, 2015 at 6:54 am
faster than a magnetic wave can propagate towards the Sun
==============================================
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_radiation
Classically, EMR consists of electromagnetic waves, which are synchronized oscillations of electric and magnetic fields that propagate at the speed of light. The oscillations of the two fields are perpendicular to each other and perpendicular to the direction of energy and wave propagation, forming a transverse wave. Electromagnetic waves can be characterized by either the frequency or wavelength of their oscillations to form the electromagnetic spectrum, which includes, in order of increasing frequency and decreasing wavelength: radio waves, microwaves, infrared radiation, visible light, ultraviolet radiation, X-rays and gamma rays.
Electromagnetic waves are produced whenever charged particles are accelerated, and these waves can subsequently interact with any charged particles. EM waves carry energy, momentum and angular momentum away from their source particle and can impart those quantities to matter with which they interact.
ferdberple
August 17, 2015 at 6:56 am
The solar wind is a plasma and pushes the magnetic field away from the sun 10 times faster than a magnetic wave can propagate towards the Sun.
============
since EM waves propagate at the speed of light, this would require the solar wind to travel 10 times faster than the speed of light.
———————————————————————————————————
———————————————————————————————————
Thank you Mr. Berple.
GCR gyrate around the Interstellar Magnetic Field as well (another energy source). More of them are seen on the Tail side (downwind) of the sun.
In other solar systems we may be seeing a magnetic reconnection regime “within” 1AU distance of those other suns…
The Solar gravitationally focused interstellar particles produce in our system an UPWIND crescent at 1AU and a DOWNWIND cone. Which also interact with Interplanetary Magnetic Field.
Electromagnetic waves are sunlight. The solar wind is not electromagnetic waves, but particles carrying a magnetic field, like the magnets on your fridge door. Carla, your ‘focused interstellar particles’ are neutral and carry no magnetic field and do not interact with the interplanetary magnetic field.
Carla, of course, Leif is correct.
I would suggest creating a model based on first principles (Maxwell’s equations), with inputs from actual measurements. This would be productive and educational rather than this kind of endless pseudo astrological speculation.
As far as planetary conjunctions and stuff …
too many parameters.. just in planetary bodies alone
that Saturn and Jupiter ‘cycle’ with their Sun yeah makes sense to me.
when they are out of ‘cycle,’ maybe an Interstellar ‘switch’ of sorts collided with the solar system.
conjunctions that block the interstellar regime in the system maybe this is where it lies.. or become part of the solar magnetic reconnection with the interstellar magnetic field.
Hey another conduit what the heck……………………………………….
The 1907 Sunspot cycle
This is the waveform of cyclic operators.