Density altitude is the biggest factor in aircraft take off on a given runway length, temperature, and altitude. I know this from firsthand experience as I used to be a private pilot – until my hearing got so bad that I decided I was a danger to myself and others. This study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society claims the number of days with a density altitude issue at some airports will increase per RCP model scenarios in 2050-2070. Of course they are assuming that the RCP models produce an accurate output, and that airplanes of the 2050-2070 era have the same airfoil efficiency and takeoff power of today.
Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
Abstract
Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed (Anderson 1999). For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some (Scherer and Diffenbaugh 2013; Donat et al. 2013; IPCC 2012). These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-200% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario (Moss et al. 2010). These performance reductions may have a negative economic effect on the airline industry. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change (National Research Council 2008; US Global Change Research Program 2009), but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation. Planning for changes in extreme heat events will help the aviation industry to reduce its vulnerability to this aspect of climate change.
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Hummm, most weather models did not even pick up the snow storm for the NE until a couple days ago, and these models are going to predict this type of stuff 50 years out? LOL
I think Weathebell was the only one who got the current storm right in advance. Thankfully we still have a few knowledgable humans doing some work out there 🙂
I remember a few years ago, some airlines whining to the FAA about (I think it was Denver) where their 737’s could not take off due to the heat, but those airlines running A320’s were having no problem at all. they wanted the FAA to “level the playing field” and stop the Airbus aircraft flying too!
Catapults and catch wires are what’s needed.
JATOs
We seem to do OK with the altitude and temperatures at the Las Vegas airport (McCarran International). The solution to this imaginary problem is simple — build a longer runway. Also, reduce the take-off weight of the flight. There are many other possible solutions. Perhaps in this imaginary future aviation technology doesn’t advance.
That’s because the long runway is 14,512 feet long. Even the short runway is 8,988 feet long. Both of them are wide enough for Canadians to land on (see above).
Lesson – we have amazing adaptability. Simple solutions:
1) Weigh ALL passengers and luggage and adjust as necessary – as done since DC3 days.
2) Reschedule flights to avoid the 1-3 PM and depart during cooler times of day.
How long before some smart a**e applies the same worries to our little feathered friends?
Some hill tops could be devoid of birdsong in the Summer, you know.
Eagle broods will suffer because of their parents inability to lift fish out of the water.
Tell that to the larks flying over the Yourkshire Dales on a hot day singing their little hearts out!
This study at least proves why there was less air travel during the Medieval Warm Period
+10
.. and the fact there was less air travel during the MWP proves it was both real and world-wide.
That’s my post-prandial stomach-settler all over the keyboard. Waste of a good malt.
Larger airports, more concrete, more UHI.
Doubt there will be an issue with crop dusters taking off from grass fields in the country.
Which idiot approved the funding for this garbage?
The whole CAGW movement are starting to reveal more and more the fiscally and socially irresponsible idiots that they are. I was also a private pilot and as stated by experienced commercial jockeys above weight calculations for density altitude have always been and always will be a part of aviation.
Desperation me thinks.
Could this be the same model, which calculated the ocean surface waves’ max height to be 15 meters?
Well the planes won’t need to land anyhow, so we will just beam the passengers aboard.
And flying will be much safer. There won’t be any birds in the air due to the density altitude problem.
So all the birds will get eaten by feral cats, unless they evolve back into the mean SOBs they were in the age of the dinosaurs.
Now this has to be the ultimate in butterfly effects discoveries.
Severe weather will become a thing of the past, because the flap of a butterfly’s wing in the Brazillian jungles (if any are left) will be quite imperceptible and incapable of triggering tornadoes.
Can I get some grant money to continue this Tom-foolery further ??
“We’ll all be rooned!” said Hanrahan, “We’ll All be rooned!”
RGB,
I normally find myself in violent agreement with your intelligent posts however in this instance I’m not.
Aircraft designers have sought to maximize lift and minimize drag since the earliest days and that fundamental equation has not changed, nor will it ever.
Aircraft are highly specialized because of the conflicts between those two objectives. An advanced airfoil with leading edge slats and drooped ailerons on a super-cub based design will get you on and off the ground in an amazingly short distance, but you won’t go very fast. Alternatively a slick composite speed demon equipped with the same horsepower will take forever to leave the ground but will travel at speeds that take your breath away.
Fundamentally the same principles and conflicts apply to commercial transport aircraft and the ingenuity of the engineers to minimize drag but maximize payload, read lift, are driven by factors much larger than a few days of potential weight limits at a few high altitude airports. To use an expression of my grandmother “This study is war’n than my a**.”
Ummmmm?.
Isn’t one of the busiest airports in the world in Dubai ?
Never gets warm there, I guess. !
You don’t understand. Because it will get searingly hot everywhere the planes won’t be able to take off from Edmonton or Dubai. You see Edmonton will have reached 50°C and Dubai 100°C.
See ? You just don’t understand :))
Dubai has better than 14,000 ft available for takeoff.
I gather the A380 needs less runway length than the 777 and both types fly in and out of DXB all year long, including their roastingly hot and humid summer.
If you need money any old sh&t will do. Bull or otherwise
Every once in a while, about twice a week, one of these really, really childishly stupid papers turns up. Who OKs them and who pays …………………………………. Oh I know, we pay and they order them to top up their bank balances.
I haven’t read all the postings, but won’t the warmer air be positive thing? The planes will be able to fly faster at a given altitude because the air is less dense? Or am I wrong?
Cant accuse Climate Alarmists of Reductio Absurdium because they,ve already done it to themselves
No problem, paint the runways white.
its a good thing there is no global warming going on …
During the ‘80’s I lived and worked in Libya. The international airport outside Tripoli is located adjacent the town of Azziziya, one of the former (recorded) hottest places on earth.
Western European and US manufactured planes took off and landed at all hours and all seasons. Russian manufactured (tail heavy) Ilyushin and Tupolev aircraft “du jour” could land at any time and any season, but their departures in the summer season were limited to the wee hours of morning. I recall that on several occasions, the nights didn’t cool sufficiently and the flights were suspended until conditions improved.
Private aircraft (mostly DeHavilland Twin Otters) flown by expatriate Canadians had no difficulty flying in worse conditions in the hotter desert regions of Libya. On several occasions I witnessed Twin Otter takeoffs from the short taxi strip connecting the hanger to the airstrip at these remote sites. (see above joke from Les Johnson.)
If the paper-report had come from the aerospace industry then I would be concerned. As it is the folks at Columbia Univ Climate Department should limit themselves paper airplanes.
Oddly in the aerospace industry “models” for design purposes are of some utility. But of course the Engineers tend to know how things work and why things work, at least in my past experiences
michael.
Sometimes the biggest challenge is to get it back on the ground ( there are tons of these videos out there).
The ones touching down while in a crab are scary. I notice some of them straightened out before touchdown but the others have to be applying some really nasty side forces to the gear.
The only landing I ever “greased” was on a night training flight to get my private pilots license.
What does that tell ya, throw out the visual cues and fly by the seat of your pants ?
Or are you just smoother on the controls when groping around in the dark ?
Anyone who has flown in to and out of Wellington, New Zealand knows this all too well.
Someone should tell the authors about La Paz, Bolivia.where the airport is at 13,000 ft. All they need to take off and land here is a special set of tires (225 mph rated) and the more powerful engines. Don’t forget that the Concorde take-off speed was well over 200 mph.
15,000 feet, I was told by my Bolivian friend. LA Paz is at 14,000 and the airport is located on the alti-plano, 1,000 feet above the city.
Correction: LA Paz seems to have shrunk. It is now only 12,000 ft high and the airport is at 13,000, as given by Dealt D above.
I hadn’t realized all the airports in the world have the exact same temperatures. I guess the thinking is that even though different regions have different average and peak temperatures, apparently the airports all have the same temperatures since today different air densities in different regions are not a significant issue. Only when you put climate change in the sentence are variations in warmth important areas of concern.