Latest bulletin, tracking map at right, click to enlarge.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
…TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES… …TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES…
CULEBRA…AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
[…]
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH…31 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY EVENING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB…29.77 INCHES.
When will they dump mb and start using kpa like the rest of the world?
A prototypical Stacy-cane. Word is the hurricane specialists got into a wrasslin’ match over whether this was a closed circulation or not. Apparently, Stacy Stewart won out. Now the 53rd
can only find 3 west wind obs to justify a cc.
O West Wind
When wilt thou blow
And I see my Bertha again?
Look at the work Pamela Gray has done.
In fact, all capital case is harder to read than conventional small case-capital mixed as usual. The NWS needs to take this into account.
New solar link paper (V. Courtillot et al) published today
Can irregularities of solar proxies help understand quasi-biennial solar variations
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/21/797/2014/npg-21-797-2014.pdf
some interesting stuff there (highly technical) not sure I understand it all, so will wait for the resident ‘experts’ demolition job.
Santa Baby says:
July 31, 2014 at 11:29 pm
Looking at
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.png
Is Al Gore in the Pacific area? Send him to the Caribbean and Bertha will turn into a snowstorm?
Sending Al-Baby to the area will likely turn it into a Sharknado
Akatsukami, from the Wiki entry:
“Earlier teleprinters had three rows of keys and only supported upper case letters. They used the 5 bit baudot code and generally worked at 60 to 100 words per minute. Later teleprinters, specifically the Teletype Model 33, used ASCII code, an innovation that came into widespread use in the 1960s as computers became more widely available.”
This would indicate to me that the NWS and WMO use ASCII code on ASCII teleprinters.
The NWS service cannot readily switch because of the intricacies of trade and information sharing agreements between countries. And yes, those international agreements get that detailed, right down to the dots and dits (a reference back to Morse code) of ASCII code used to transmit information.
Well, of course they do. I haven’t had to deal with the fussiness of hardware since college days, but I assure you that it is necessary to take into account such things as signal fade time when designing a circuit (which is why Baudot code uses 1.42 stop bits…).
And, whilst NWS may use ASCII/XASCII machinery, if they are transmitting to stations using Baudot code machines, it makes no sense for the text to use glyphs for which there is no representation at the receiving end.
It could even be the case that some remote countries still have older teleprinters clicking away in weather offices. It may be the case that the NWS and WMO use ASCII caps only to communicate with the wide variety of teleprinters still functioning in the world, including the oldies but goodies that use Baudot caps only code.
So you might ask why I know this stuff. I’ve had some experience running VA hospital equipment, including teleprinters. And people are aghast that the VA system runs slow. DUH!!!!!
Akatsukami, of course it makes sense. Translations were developed (see the link below).
Notice that many of our current in-use computer words go way back. Baudot is used in the term “baud rate”, and Gauss is used in the term “Gaussian Elimination”. But let’s also clear up a misconception. The 5-level “Baudot” code was based on an earlier design by Johann Gauss and Wilhelm Weber. Baudot is credited with the patent for the machine, not the concept. French law forbade patents on concepts such as codes. But you could carry a patent on the machine that used the code.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEcQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baudot.net%2Fdocs%2Fsmith–teletype-codes.pdf&ei=TO3bU6LsFcHViwLdqIEg&usg=AFQjCNGk_T9YNxmF0HdL63mlpmEnu91j3Q&sig2=qKk4gs9gt-FDNZ-OYLCSWw&bvm=bv.72197243,d.cGE
While I was working in the VA system, we had on staff a guy from England who could build a translator in his sleep that interfaced with various computer based equipment that used different codes. He had an amazing techno-brain that made me feel like I was still in my toddler days of gagagagagaga language.
This is a quote of the forecast discussion from the national hurricane center.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 011454
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014
Bertha is disorganized this morning. While satellite imagery shows
a well-defined low-cloud swirl exposed just west of the main
convective mass, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open
wave. The aircraft did report 56 kt winds at 1500 feet to the
east-northeast of the center, along with an area of SFMR surface
winds in excess of 40 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt.
The initial motion is now 295/18, and over the past few hours
Bertha may be moving even faster. The cyclone is currently being
steered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this
should continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, the
cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge
caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the
Atlantic north of Bermuda. The track guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario, and it has changed little since the
previous advisory. The new forecast track is therefore an update of
the previous forecast.
Bertha is currently experiencing about 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. and water vapor imagery shows dry
mid-/upper-level air near the storm. The forecast track calls for
Bertha to interact with one or two upper-level troughs during the
next 48-72 hours, which should cause some shear and dry air
entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack
of organization, suggests little change in strength should
occur during the next 48 hours or so. After that time, Bertha is
expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater
moisture. The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening
during that time, but it is weaker than all of the guidance except
the Florida State Superensemble. An alternative scenario is that a
combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction
causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48
hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when
the system reaches the more favorable environment.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 36.5N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Doesn’t seem like they’re very worried.
Ren thanks for all those fantastic links. My weather bookmark folder is expanding at a rate of knots.
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bertha
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al032014_analogs.png
Clouds will move along the east coast, according to the high pressure in the Atlantic.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/03/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-70.22,18.24,553
Joebeibi I agree with you about 2004… but I was talking about 2005, and the fact that there had been 10 storms by the end of July, and Katrina was up next.
I wasn’t disagreeing. I was just pointing out that you can have an active hurricane year with a late start.
Hard to believe how long it’s been since the last big storm hit Florida. You know, I bought a generator after Katrina, and haven’t even taken it out of the box since. I have no idea if it even works, but it’s way past its return date!
Let’s see where accelerate Bertha.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0314S+gif/024147P_sm.gif