The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

Nominal trade winds, enlargement of antarctic down welling cold is pushing the SH jets closer to the equator effectively breaking up any chance of an oscillation occurring. Enlargement of arctic cold area has already begun pushing the NH jets to the equator. By the time we reach equinox there will be opposing forces that will not allow oscillation to begin.
IF the area of cold water intrudes from the north this warm pocket will be depleted in short order. (and this one is likely to occur if we get a hurricane formation.)
El NOPE!

The odds of an El Nino seem to be shrinking daily. For some reason, there was never an “atmospheric” hook up.

It looks like the El Nino is dead now.
But that warm patch you mentioned should recirculate toward the equatorial Pacific Warm Pool area. There is a monthly animation of this counter-current at 8S from Godas – every month going back to 1979. Kind of hard to see what is going on in here but that is what it does. Its a long animation so it is only for those truly interested in this.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xz/movie.temp.8s.mon.gif

I remain very confident that weatherbell.com forecast for an enso event similar to 02-03 and 09-10 is on the way. This is a cold pdo/meI REACTIVE event, a bounceback similar to how la ninas during the time of the warm pdo/met periods can occur. We are highly unlikely to have a super nino until the PDO gets ready to flip for good again, Basically we are seeing what we have seen before if you go back and look at the 50s-70s. The warmest of the events, such as 57-78, 65-66,72-73 collapse quickly. The very nature of the enso with the warming where it is when the decadol signal of the PDO is cold, invites the destruction of the warm water pool. YOU MUST HAVE SOME SOI LINKAGE because if not, then the warm subsurface water simply cools coming to the surface and you just saw that. There should be a few months of linkage in the fall, as the water is cooling a bit around Australia and this will lead to the higher pressures needed to link the SOI So yes it is coming and I think our those analogs will prove to have had merit. Please remember, my counters have been to take apart the Super Nino crew which since 1997 has been wishcasting super nino though the cold guard lead by Hansen apparently have new heirs to carry on. No one said there would be no el nino and to be frank, this is how we felt it would evolve, because we kept harping on the lack of coupling ( linkage) that should occur through in the coming months.
That warm water pool is not by itself that significant, as if there is no linkage to the SOI, it will cool again, only it isnt as warm as the one that set some flipping out back in April.
BTW there is a reason they call it “el nino” it shows up later in the season but the ones that do are not the super nino’s and that is where the main thrust against Trenberth etal, was.. that it was irrational exuberance given the physical players on the field to be yelling about super ninos..IMO ( Joe D’s too)
cheers

BS

lemiere jacques says:
“did anybody ever predict a nino / nina accurately?”
Yes, I did, the 2009-2011 ENSO, an El Nino that I also said would be followed by a La Nina. I did that back in 2006.
The 2009-2011 ENSO event I forecasted featuring El Nino, and then followed by La Nina, broke all kinds of precipitation records in Australia along with record damage in other affected regions.
The reason why NOAA and other climate centers cannot forecast ENSO is because they do not understand what the ENSO cycle is an effect – not a cause – which is why their computer models fail consistently and it is also why NOAA and other climate centers have never forecasted an ENSO cycle in advance.
I will explain what the ENSO cycle is and what to look for to forecast it for those interested, but anyone who is must learn astronomic forecasting, for that is the only way to accurately forecast these climate events.
The ENSO cycle is a decadal climate event and does not happen every year. Rather, this climate change in action comes every 11 years, according to solar-planetary cycles.
It is critical for anyone who wants to forecast accurately, to know that the ENSO cycle is not an internally driven or chaotic phenomenon.
It is a solar-magnetically driven climate event that begins with the upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and results in impact on the N/S annular modes.
The ENSO cycle is therefore a proven thermal/kinetic energy exchange.
It is externally forced and is a circulatory response to conserve angular momentum that is relative to the planetary surface in rotation and then processed through Earth’s highly variable and fluid atmosphere.
The forcing is done by changes in meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that means planetary wave action:
Stationary planetary waves are excited in the midlatitudes, propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics.
The impact these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled. Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength.
A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability.
Here, both phenomena are closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell.
The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO. As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event.
ENSO, both El Niño and La Niña phases are planetary climate change in action. NOAA makes the great mistake of thinking that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is linear – but it is NOT.
ENSO is a major climate system that is forced and responds to fluctuations from the Sun. That is the cause.
You must first know the cause to ascertain the effects, which are lastly seen in sea surface temperatures when the ENSO cycle is in effect.
Also, NOAA makes the serious error of calling ENSO, when not in action, ‘climate neutral.’
Understand this: NOAA and other climate centers apply ‘weather reporting’ (already in action climate events) in place of forecasting major climate events like the ENSO cycle.
Look to the atmosphere to call an ENSO. Those who are even ahead of that look to outer space and the condition of the Sun and planetary configurations that relate to a major climatic event like ENSO. That is what I do and it is why I can forecast climate events years in advance, by means of astronomic forecasting.
The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña are externally-forced climate phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Observation of the climate event of warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, show how the warmer waters slosh, or rather oscillate, back and forth across the Pacific.
Warmer than normal central and eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs, that record weaker low level atmospheric winds at the Earth’s equator with enhanced convection across the entire equatorial Pacific, also known as El Niño.
The La Niña phase records stronger low level atmospheric winds along the equator with decreased convection across the entire equatorial Pacific showing a suppressed southern jet stream with cooler than normal SSTs along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The problem for centers like NOAA is that they primarily depend on sea surface temperatures (SST) readings, which are deceptive, which is why they bust on calling for an ENSO.
SST readings change flux values, especially during the vernal and autumnal equinoxes, and when climate centers try to call an ENSO (which is a decadal climate phenomena, not yearly) they mistake any oscillations as ENSO, which is why they bust because ENSO is NOT climate neutral. Again, ENSO is a large scale variability in the circulatory system and is a proven thermal-kinetic energy exchange.
Rather, you must look to the upper atmosphere to forecast an ENSO.
The reason why NOAA and other climate center’s computer models are so horrendous on ENSO is that their models are NOT programmed to understand ENSO.
They take the initial condition and then apply their perturbation hypothesis to attempt to forecast, but their computer models are based on a useless application of the given boundary condition they use to project from.
Again, they use system dynamics that drive the ENSO climate state rather than the other way around. It’s ass backwards.
They prove this every single time in their attempts to forecast climate events like ENSO, and it is also the reason why they bust year in and year out on seasonal forecasts.
I keep repeating to all the same thing, and that is this:
THAT THE SUN IS THE CAUSE OF ALL CLIMATE EVENTS.
That is also the metric for the ENSO cycle.
For instance, the fluctuations of solar wind speed is directly connected to geomagnetic activity that applies to major Earth atmospheric changes to a ENSO cycle.
Solar wind speed has been monitored by American satellites since the mid-1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed show enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days, and at the harmonics of 13.6 and 9.1 days.
The amplitude series are modulated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with a period of 1.75a (21 months) as bispectral analysis shows.
A 1.75a QBO component is also found at the equatorial and zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component with a period of 2.4a (29 months.)
The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the Earth’s electric circuit and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux, and particle precipitation.
For a further analysis, a series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as a function of time.
Now, the maxima of the solar wind QBO series are correlated to those of the ENSO cycle index.
And, analysis has shown that the solar wind QBO trigger the ENSO cycle.
This comes BEFORE SST variation readings, which NOAA uses to try to guess if an ENSO cycle is beginning, and every year they are duped into thinking this without understanding that the ENSO cycle is a DECADAL CLIMATE EVENT directly correlated to the Sun-Jupiter 11-year cycle.
There are additional planetary modulation signals if it will be a weak, moderate, or strong El Nino, or La Nina, or one after the other, or just the warm oscillation, or the cold oscillation.
Another metric links to the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO. The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon known as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of ENSO in a long simulation of a coupled model.
The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO.
The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event.
The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events.
The important thing to know is that NOAA does NOT use the proper metrics so they cannot forecast ENSO, much less seasonal weather, or yearly weather. Look at the bust on the so-called ‘super El Nino’ which did not develop.
Again, the base their musings on SST variations and then they guess if it is going to turn into an ENSO cycle, but the ENSO cycle is decadal, it does not come every year, but they continue to state that the ENSO cycle is essentially always with us every year in some form or the other and it DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY.
Now, the next very big climate story to come will be the emergence of what I also have been forecasting for years – GLOBAL COOLING.
I’ve been forecasting that global cooling will officially become the Earth’s new climate regime in mid-December 2017 and will last 36 years.
These events, with the Sun going into a hibernation phase at solar cycle #25, just as solar cycle #24 arrives at mini-maximum.
Global cooling will usher in a break to our interglacial era.
It’s going to get much colder and wetter throughout much of the planet and colder and drier in other regions.
As for the ENSO cycle, I have forecasted that the next one will be a major La Nina, and the first ENSO cycle of the cold oscillation phase of the global cooling era.
My forecast for that La Nina will occur in 2020-2022 and last for about 2.5 years. It will be the reason for the very cold and long winter of 2021-2022 in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere will also see a brutal winter in 2022.
We got a taste of the kind of winter during the trending to global cooling in 2013-2014 in North America where all kinds of records were broken. Current winter records are now being broken in the southern hemisphere was well.
At this time we are still in transition between solar-forced global warming and solar-forced global cooling, which accounts for the ‘extremes of weather’ that I’ve been writing and forecasting on for years now.
Anyone who wants to understand the ENSO cycle must know and understand what is happening with the Sun, the planets and the conditions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field.
You will not gain any knowledge of El Nino or La Nina by treating the effects as ’causes’ which is the reason why 99% of those who try to forecast these climate events fail to do so.

Its over. Will be lucky to classify as a weak El nino.
That subsurface warming will amount to nothing at all.
Whats interesting is that we are seeing rapid cooling and yet the cooler waters haven’t surfaced yet.
So 1 and 2 will cool now and spread west, and will counter any warming to follow.
My only question is can we have a La nina next year of any significance without an El nino first?
Probably not.

@ Sweet Old Bob says:
July 26, 2014 at 11:06 am
Rarely do I read something that is so profound as to affect the power struggle between husband and wife. Yet now I have! Many thanks! I will use it. 😉

Theodore White and others, thank you for doing real science. That our world has but one source of energy, and it’s moods and perambulations control our climate and well being seems to be forgotten by many. Those that take the sun as a constant with minor variations that do not affect our climate, and blame mankind are barking mad.

I don’t see any reason why sub sea tectonics/vulcanism can’t have a role in ENSO, but I suspect we don’t know enough to gauge the extent of these effects. Here’s an interesting dissertation that summarizes some of these factors: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/mscdissertations/An%20Investigation%20into%20Possible%20Interactions%20between%20Volcanoes%20and%20El%20Nino.pdf

What’s a “Kevin” wave? Is it just a mis-spelled “Kelvin” wave?

A very nice touch, Bob, ‘Come along, I’ll show you’. You are attracting people who can understand you.
=============

Bob Tisdale says:
July 28, 2014 at 3:22 am
phlogiston says: “Another discussion thread about ENSO with no mention of Peruvian upwelling. That is the best metric of what’s really happening in ENSO.”
Therefore, there is no reason to include a discussion of the Peruvian coastal waters in an El Nino post.
I was criticizing more the thread discussion than your article.
Also I greatly appreciate the data you posted on Nina 3.4 and the Peruvian coastal waters.
Last time I checked, Peruvian upwelling was one half of the coin of the Bjerknes feedback (which I first learned about from you) the other side being the trade winds.
And as we all know, the Bjerknes feedback is the central engine of ENSO, to which everything else is secondary.
And yet – we have huge volumes of hot air in the discussion thread about the trade winds and silence about Peruvian upwelling. Why this strange asymmetry? That was what prompted my comment.
We even have significant time given to discussing if el Nino is sun-spot driven and happens regularly every 11 years – or if it is caused by oscillating volcanic activity. Or magnetism, or any other of the usual suspects. It seems anything goes – except of course the unmentionable Peruvian upwelling.
Did I miss the memo about Peruvian upwelling being the unmentionable taboo of ENSO?
Is it like mentioning the war to Germans, or the name “Jehovah” to certain Jews? Anyone?
What really confirmed that the recent incipient el Nino had finally died a death was when the anchovies returned to the Peruvian fishery, signaling the cold water upwelling had returned:
http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
I take your point about el Nino Modoki possibly not involving the far east Pacific upwelling however. That is interesting and something I will have to think about.
My take on ENSO – and I believe yours also – is that it is an intermittent nonlinear oscillator and as such is driven by the intermittent positive feedback regime known as the Bjerknes feedback.
Therefore an approach to ENSO focusing on cause rather than effect necessarily focuses on the components of the Bjerknes feedback, the eastern upwelling as well as the trade winds, and not only SST patterns.
The depth profiles of Pacific temperatures show that upwelling does not always correlate directly with overlying SST. Thus I don’t think that the significance to ENSO of Peruvian upwelling can be judged only by Nino1+2 – Nino 3.4 SST correlation.
Do we imagine that the supply of Peruvian deep upwelling – linked to THC – is constant and invariant? From what is known about turbulent fluid flow and mixing this assumption is certain to be false. Since there is thus variability in the upwelling supply, as an ocean current phenomenon separate from surface meteorology, this is another potential source of a timing input to ENSO that is currently being overlooked entirely.

Some of it may have recirculated. Some of it seems to have ended up here on the West Coast of the US. SSTs are above normal just now. I hope it lasts into the winter and gives us a better rainy season than the past 3.

Despite all the talk, there will be no El Nino this year, as I have repeatedly said.
The next ENSO cycle will be a major La Nina, but that will not take place until 2020-2022, and will do so under the new climate regime of global cooling that will begin officially in mid-December 2017.
Although NOAA, which has never forecasted an ENSO cycle in advance, continues to dream on about the ‘super El Nino’ that has not materialized as they and other forecasted and spread widely throughout the media, it appears that there is backing off now by the Australians, who put out this statement on Tuesday, July 29, 2014:
“Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half
of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and
atmosphere have not reinforced each other.
As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.
While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters
persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest
El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year’s end
cannot be ruled out.
If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker
has shifted to El Niño WATCH status.
This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.
[Translated, it means that they do not know.]
El Niño is often associated with wide scale below-average rainfall over southern and eastern
inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia.
Similar impacts prior to the event becoming fully established regularly occur.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold)
since mid-June, but needs to remain negative into August to be considered an event. Model
outlooks suggest this negative IOD is likely to be short lived, and return to neutral by spring.
A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and
southern Australia.”
All the astronomic indicators which I outlined earlier on this post do not show that a ‘super El Nino’ has been coming, which is why i continued to say that we will not see El Nino this year, or next either.
What is happening is that the world is trending toward global cooling, which is the reason for the extremes of weather we’ve been witnessing for years now as the globe cools down according to the lessening of sunspots and the Sun’s coming hibernation phase into solar cycle #25.
In my climate forecast, the next ENSO cycle is 7-8 years away and it will be of the cold oscillation phase of La Nina and a major one at that.

Not sure if anyone is still looking at this thread…..but I found this today.
http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/agriculture/general/news/threat-of-el-nino-recedes/2707161.aspx?src=rss