The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

Figure 0 - Page 12 from Wekly ENSO UpdateThere may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly ENSO Update to the right. (Please click on illustration for full-sized image.) In their update, NOAA also makes note of that anomaly during their discussion of the Hovmoller on their page 15. That subsurface temperature anomaly appears to have been caused by the recirculation of warm water from the earlier downwelling (warm) Kevin wave, not by another westerly wind burst.  Come along, I’ll show you.

We’ve illustrated and discussed in recent posts the quickly diminishing remnants of the strong downwelling Kelvin wave that had carried a large pulse of warm water from the western equatorial Pacific eastward as far as South America. See…

…of this series. And the bottom line of those posts was, if the trade winds along the equatorial Pacific did not start to provide the feedback necessary to support an El Niño, the 2014/15 El Niño was going to die an early death…basically, it would run out of warm water.

Now a warm subsurface temperature anomaly has appeared in the west-central equatorial Pacific. See Figure 1, which is the most recent (a 5-day average centered on July 22) equatorial cross section available from the NOAA GODAS website. That pocket of warm subsurface water has been there, growing stronger, for the past few weeks.

Figure 1

Figure 1 – Equatorial Cross Section

Yet, according to the equatorial wind stress data, there has not been a westerly wind burst in the western equatorial Pacific for a few months to nudge any warm water from the West Pacific Warm Pool. See Figure 2. So where’d the warm water come from?

Figure 2

Figure 2 – Wind Stress Hovmoller

For that, we’ll have to look at an animation of the temperature anomaly maps for the top 300 meters of the oceans. But before we do, let me first show you what you’ll be looking for. See Figure 3. There is a pocket of warm water off the equator near the dateline. That pocket of warm water will be isolated as the equator cools. It travels slightly west and then gets “drawn” to the equator again.

Figure 3

Figure 3

And in Animation 1 you can watch that transpire. The animation starts with the May 3rd pentad (5-day average) and runs through July 22nd.

Animation 1

Animation 1

For those interested in watching the off-equatorial pocket of warm water form, see the animation here of sea level anomaly maps and temperature anomaly maps for the top 300 meters of the oceans from July Update. The “T300” maps are on the right. That animation runs from the start of the year to July 2, 2014, so it does not capture the warm water returning to the equator. That’s only happened over the past few weeks.

Animation 2 includes the equatorial cross sections for the same time period. Yes, there are other positive subsurface anomalies west of the one nearer to the dateline, so without the T300 maps, it’s difficult to speculate about how the larger warm anomaly formed.

Animation 2

Animation 2


Regardless of where that warm anomaly originated, it’s there now. The equatorial undercurrent in the Pacific (a.k.a the Cromwell Current) should now carry that anomaly to the east, where it should become a more-positive anomaly (because the water in the east is normally cooler than in the west). And if that additional warm water just south of the equator in the western tropical Pacific should also feed into the equatorial undercurrent, then there will be even more warm water to possibly fuel an El Niño for this year. (Yeah, I know, there’s lots of “shoulds” in those sentences, leading up to a “possibly”.)

We’ll just have to watch and see what Mother Nature decides to do. She’s always in control…and she’s always full of surprises.


And for additional introductory discussions of El Niño processes see:


My ebook Who Turned on the Heat? goes into a tremendous amount of detail to explain El Niño and La Niña processes and the long-term aftereffects of strong El Niño events. Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables.

I’ve lowered the price of Who Turned on the Heat? from U.S.$8.00 to U.S.$5.00. A free preview in pdf format is here. The preview includes the Table of Contents, the Introduction, the first half of section 1 (which was provided complete in the post here), a discussion of the cover, and the Closing. Take a run through the Table of Contents. It is a very-detailed and well-illustrated book—using data from the real world, not models of a virtual world. Who Turned on the Heat? is only available in pdf format…and will only be available in that format. Click here to purchase a copy. Thanks. (I also am very happy to receive tips or donations.)


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I sure hope we can enjoy an El Niño. I would love to have a winter in the Midwest with mild temps. and greatly reduced snowfall. It would be great if my snow blower could be inactive all winter and remain in the corner of my garage. Global warming in the winter time would be wonderful.

Until there is a significant slackening of trade winds there is not going to be a Nino. While they are slack in the far western Pacific, they are basically nominal elsewhere. Still looks like more “La Nada” to me at least for the next several weeks.

Bill H

Nominal trade winds, enlargement of antarctic down welling cold is pushing the SH jets closer to the equator effectively breaking up any chance of an oscillation occurring. Enlargement of arctic cold area has already begun pushing the NH jets to the equator. By the time we reach equinox there will be opposing forces that will not allow oscillation to begin.
IF the area of cold water intrudes from the north this warm pocket will be depleted in short order. (and this one is likely to occur if we get a hurricane formation.)

Bill H

excuse me, typhoon formation…

Fascinating, as always. One question: Ian Plimer told me some years ago that seismic tremors became more active in the Pacific for six months before each el Nino. Is this a possible cause for the warmer water every few years; and, if not, what does cause it?

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)

Thanks Bob!
I’d also be interested in seeing Joe Bastardi’s analysis of this. Wouldn’t mind a milder winter and I have friends in California who could use the rain.

Pamela Gray

Monckton of Brenchley, you have to be kidding. I get more hot flashes in the six months before each El Nino. Wonder what that connection is between my hormones and the top few meters of the equatorial Pacific ocean.


Pamela: It depends on how close you get to that “warm” water.


The odds of an El Nino seem to be shrinking daily. For some reason, there was never an “atmospheric” hook up.

Bill Illis

It looks like the El Nino is dead now.
But that warm patch you mentioned should recirculate toward the equatorial Pacific Warm Pool area. There is a monthly animation of this counter-current at 8S from Godas – every month going back to 1979. Kind of hard to see what is going on in here but that is what it does. Its a long animation so it is only for those truly interested in this.

Pamela Gray

El Nino is caused by a slackening of the trade winds that blow from East to West along the Pacific ocean equatorial band. This video gives a history of the discovery and developing understanding of the root cause of trade winds, the Coriolis Force.

Pamela Gray

This video explains why the trade winds slacken due to weakened and reversed pressure systems along the equatorial band.

Pamela Gray

And finally, this is a Yale presentation the delves deeper into El Nino and La Nina processes.

Pamela Gray

There is also a song dedicated to this topic but it was so pot smoking stupid I just can’t paste the youtube here and call myself intelligent. If you want to venture into such a weird realm, use the following search phrase at If you’re like me, you will slap yourself for watching it.

lemiere jacques

did anybody ever predict a nino / nina acurately?

Joseph Bastardi

I remain very confident that forecast for an enso event similar to 02-03 and 09-10 is on the way. This is a cold pdo/meI REACTIVE event, a bounceback similar to how la ninas during the time of the warm pdo/met periods can occur. We are highly unlikely to have a super nino until the PDO gets ready to flip for good again, Basically we are seeing what we have seen before if you go back and look at the 50s-70s. The warmest of the events, such as 57-78, 65-66,72-73 collapse quickly. The very nature of the enso with the warming where it is when the decadol signal of the PDO is cold, invites the destruction of the warm water pool. YOU MUST HAVE SOME SOI LINKAGE because if not, then the warm subsurface water simply cools coming to the surface and you just saw that. There should be a few months of linkage in the fall, as the water is cooling a bit around Australia and this will lead to the higher pressures needed to link the SOI So yes it is coming and I think our those analogs will prove to have had merit. Please remember, my counters have been to take apart the Super Nino crew which since 1997 has been wishcasting super nino though the cold guard lead by Hansen apparently have new heirs to carry on. No one said there would be no el nino and to be frank, this is how we felt it would evolve, because we kept harping on the lack of coupling ( linkage) that should occur through in the coming months.
That warm water pool is not by itself that significant, as if there is no linkage to the SOI, it will cool again, only it isnt as warm as the one that set some flipping out back in April.
BTW there is a reason they call it “el nino” it shows up later in the season but the ones that do are not the super nino’s and that is where the main thrust against Trenberth etal, was.. that it was irrational exuberance given the physical players on the field to be yelling about super ninos..IMO ( Joe D’s too)

Pamela Gray

I return to an earlier observation I have seen in the El Nino data. It appears that the amplitude of El Nino’s generally increased up until the 1998 El Nino. Since then the amplitudes have generally decreased. This observation appears to mesh with Bob Tisdale’s discharge/recharge phenomenon. The tank empties in stepwise fashion with each step being steeper up to a point (thus also connecting to the increasing stepwise global temperature series). The tank hits a peek amplitude then slowly slides down as measured by El Nino amplitude thus connecting to the pause. What conditions of discharge/recharge would have to be in place for global temperatures to fall?

M Courtney

Thank you for this article. It answers my question on your last thread.
Yes, the El Nino may be happening – the predictions aren’t wrong – but the size of the temperature anomaly looks like it will be weaker than would have been expected last decade.
Interesting. And it looks like we are beginning to get an understanding of this and are able to make worthwhile predictions. This is progress and you seem to be at the forefront.


Monckton of Brenchley says:
July 26, 2014 at 9:11 am
The hypothesis linking El Niños & volcanism has been around at least since 1988:

Pamela Gray

It has taken me some time to learn how to read Hovmoller graphs. See Figure 2 – Wind Stress Hovmoller. Think of it as a flip book animation but shown on one page instead of several. Play the animation by slowly scanning down the graph to see how things change or move locations over time designated on the y axis in the geographic area span designated on the x axis.

Sweet Old Bob

Pamela Grey at 9:25
A wise person told me “THOSE ARE NOT HOT FLASHES those are POWER SURGES ! ”
I’m sure you agree…..(: < ))

Pamela Gray

re: volcanic events and El Ninos
Milodonharlani, a super large equatorial eruption in the Indonesian area appears to be able to initiate an El Nino event, likely due to disrupting the atmospheric pressure cell mechanism that drives normal trade wind conditions from East to West, IE the western Pacific ocean high pressure cell and its interaction with the Coriolis Force setting up the Walker Cell equatorial circulation. It seems that ash and sulfur obscuring the Sun is the primary agent, which makes sense.

Very grateful to Milodonharlani for the early volcanism references: there have been many more since. The notion is not entirely implausible: there are 3.5 million undersea volcanoes, many of them along the Pacific ring of fire. If there is a link, it will be interesting to look at the post-1979 data both for earthquakes and for global temperatures to see how good the correlation is.
The largest volcano by ground footprint in the solar system was discovered just last year – in the sea off Japan. So it would not be prudent to dismiss the idea of variable direct volcanic heating of the oceans. I do not think a mere fluctuation in the trade winds would have been enough to push global temperatures up relatively steeply during the Singer event between 1993 and 1998.

Pamela Gray

Bob, you are indeed sweet to think that way. On the up side, it makes us old gals useful on cold winter nights. Better than a hot water bottle.

Pamela Gray

Monckton, your thinking would be wrong. A slackening of trade winds brings billions of tons of warm water to the vast Pacific surface. Of course that heat would be enough.


Monckton of Brenchley says:
July 26, 2014 at 11:17 am
Not the best source, but shows correlation between warming periods & increased volcanism, which the article attributes to Chandler Wobble:

Bill Illis

DMI has put up a hi-res ocean SST page which uses all of the satellite data they can get their hands on. Probably better than anything else I have come across recently
Click “Sea Surface Temp (SSTs) to “Sea Surface temp (Anomalies)” and then “loop” for the last 30 days animation. Might have to play with the settings and/or save settings to get what you want.



Bill Illis

The ENSO, the Trade Winds and the Equatorial Upper Ocean Temperature Anomalies are all liked together.
Compare the ENSO to the Pacific Trade Wind Index from 1979 to June 2014.
Compare the ENSO to the East Pacific Equatorial Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly.
Compare the Trade Wind Index to the East Pacific Equatorial Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly.
They are all operating at relatively the same timeframe other than the Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly is usually leading by a month or two. And then the pattern that allows the East Upper Ocean Temp Anomaly to rise or fall is set-up to occur months in advance. Look at the pattern from February 2014. It is July now, but it was already in place in February.
This is the driver of the ENSO.

Theodore White

lemiere jacques says:
“did anybody ever predict a nino / nina accurately?”
Yes, I did, the 2009-2011 ENSO, an El Nino that I also said would be followed by a La Nina. I did that back in 2006.
The 2009-2011 ENSO event I forecasted featuring El Nino, and then followed by La Nina, broke all kinds of precipitation records in Australia along with record damage in other affected regions.
The reason why NOAA and other climate centers cannot forecast ENSO is because they do not understand what the ENSO cycle is an effect – not a cause – which is why their computer models fail consistently and it is also why NOAA and other climate centers have never forecasted an ENSO cycle in advance.
I will explain what the ENSO cycle is and what to look for to forecast it for those interested, but anyone who is must learn astronomic forecasting, for that is the only way to accurately forecast these climate events.
The ENSO cycle is a decadal climate event and does not happen every year. Rather, this climate change in action comes every 11 years, according to solar-planetary cycles.
It is critical for anyone who wants to forecast accurately, to know that the ENSO cycle is not an internally driven or chaotic phenomenon.
It is a solar-magnetically driven climate event that begins with the upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and results in impact on the N/S annular modes.
The ENSO cycle is therefore a proven thermal/kinetic energy exchange.
It is externally forced and is a circulatory response to conserve angular momentum that is relative to the planetary surface in rotation and then processed through Earth’s highly variable and fluid atmosphere.
The forcing is done by changes in meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that means planetary wave action:
Stationary planetary waves are excited in the midlatitudes, propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics.
The impact these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled. Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength.
A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability.
Here, both phenomena are closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell.
The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO. As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event.
ENSO, both El Niño and La Niña phases are planetary climate change in action. NOAA makes the great mistake of thinking that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is linear – but it is NOT.
ENSO is a major climate system that is forced and responds to fluctuations from the Sun. That is the cause.
You must first know the cause to ascertain the effects, which are lastly seen in sea surface temperatures when the ENSO cycle is in effect.
Also, NOAA makes the serious error of calling ENSO, when not in action, ‘climate neutral.’
Understand this: NOAA and other climate centers apply ‘weather reporting’ (already in action climate events) in place of forecasting major climate events like the ENSO cycle.
Look to the atmosphere to call an ENSO. Those who are even ahead of that look to outer space and the condition of the Sun and planetary configurations that relate to a major climatic event like ENSO. That is what I do and it is why I can forecast climate events years in advance, by means of astronomic forecasting.
The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña are externally-forced climate phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Observation of the climate event of warm phase of ENSO, El Niño, show how the warmer waters slosh, or rather oscillate, back and forth across the Pacific.
Warmer than normal central and eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs, that record weaker low level atmospheric winds at the Earth’s equator with enhanced convection across the entire equatorial Pacific, also known as El Niño.
The La Niña phase records stronger low level atmospheric winds along the equator with decreased convection across the entire equatorial Pacific showing a suppressed southern jet stream with cooler than normal SSTs along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
The problem for centers like NOAA is that they primarily depend on sea surface temperatures (SST) readings, which are deceptive, which is why they bust on calling for an ENSO.
SST readings change flux values, especially during the vernal and autumnal equinoxes, and when climate centers try to call an ENSO (which is a decadal climate phenomena, not yearly) they mistake any oscillations as ENSO, which is why they bust because ENSO is NOT climate neutral. Again, ENSO is a large scale variability in the circulatory system and is a proven thermal-kinetic energy exchange.
Rather, you must look to the upper atmosphere to forecast an ENSO.
The reason why NOAA and other climate center’s computer models are so horrendous on ENSO is that their models are NOT programmed to understand ENSO.
They take the initial condition and then apply their perturbation hypothesis to attempt to forecast, but their computer models are based on a useless application of the given boundary condition they use to project from.
Again, they use system dynamics that drive the ENSO climate state rather than the other way around. It’s ass backwards.
They prove this every single time in their attempts to forecast climate events like ENSO, and it is also the reason why they bust year in and year out on seasonal forecasts.
I keep repeating to all the same thing, and that is this:
That is also the metric for the ENSO cycle.
For instance, the fluctuations of solar wind speed is directly connected to geomagnetic activity that applies to major Earth atmospheric changes to a ENSO cycle.
Solar wind speed has been monitored by American satellites since the mid-1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed show enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days, and at the harmonics of 13.6 and 9.1 days.
The amplitude series are modulated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with a period of 1.75a (21 months) as bispectral analysis shows.
A 1.75a QBO component is also found at the equatorial and zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component with a period of 2.4a (29 months.)
The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the Earth’s electric circuit and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux, and particle precipitation.
For a further analysis, a series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as a function of time.
Now, the maxima of the solar wind QBO series are correlated to those of the ENSO cycle index.
And, analysis has shown that the solar wind QBO trigger the ENSO cycle.
This comes BEFORE SST variation readings, which NOAA uses to try to guess if an ENSO cycle is beginning, and every year they are duped into thinking this without understanding that the ENSO cycle is a DECADAL CLIMATE EVENT directly correlated to the Sun-Jupiter 11-year cycle.
There are additional planetary modulation signals if it will be a weak, moderate, or strong El Nino, or La Nina, or one after the other, or just the warm oscillation, or the cold oscillation.
Another metric links to the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO. The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon known as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of ENSO in a long simulation of a coupled model.
The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO.
The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event.
The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events.
The important thing to know is that NOAA does NOT use the proper metrics so they cannot forecast ENSO, much less seasonal weather, or yearly weather. Look at the bust on the so-called ‘super El Nino’ which did not develop.
Again, the base their musings on SST variations and then they guess if it is going to turn into an ENSO cycle, but the ENSO cycle is decadal, it does not come every year, but they continue to state that the ENSO cycle is essentially always with us every year in some form or the other and it DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY.
Now, the next very big climate story to come will be the emergence of what I also have been forecasting for years – GLOBAL COOLING.
I’ve been forecasting that global cooling will officially become the Earth’s new climate regime in mid-December 2017 and will last 36 years.
These events, with the Sun going into a hibernation phase at solar cycle #25, just as solar cycle #24 arrives at mini-maximum.
Global cooling will usher in a break to our interglacial era.
It’s going to get much colder and wetter throughout much of the planet and colder and drier in other regions.
As for the ENSO cycle, I have forecasted that the next one will be a major La Nina, and the first ENSO cycle of the cold oscillation phase of the global cooling era.
My forecast for that La Nina will occur in 2020-2022 and last for about 2.5 years. It will be the reason for the very cold and long winter of 2021-2022 in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere will also see a brutal winter in 2022.
We got a taste of the kind of winter during the trending to global cooling in 2013-2014 in North America where all kinds of records were broken. Current winter records are now being broken in the southern hemisphere was well.
At this time we are still in transition between solar-forced global warming and solar-forced global cooling, which accounts for the ‘extremes of weather’ that I’ve been writing and forecasting on for years now.
Anyone who wants to understand the ENSO cycle must know and understand what is happening with the Sun, the planets and the conditions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field.
You will not gain any knowledge of El Nino or La Nina by treating the effects as ’causes’ which is the reason why 99% of those who try to forecast these climate events fail to do so.

Steve in Seattle

Take a look at both MTSAT and GOES east – once again, cyclones are trying to form, off the coast of central Mexico and East of the Southern Phils. These events take ( I believe ) a significant amount of surface heat from the ocean. Perhaps this is a contributing factor as to why El Nino is / is going to be a “bust” .


Theodore White says:
July 26, 2014 at 12:38 pm
I’m not sure that the sun causes all climate events, but IMO its variations & various modulations thereof are the primary driver, insofar as climate is driven. Among the modulations are earth’s orbital & rotational mechanics, cosmic ray flux from our planet’s position in the Milky Way & plate tectonics.

Pamela Gray

Theodore, yeh yeh…the moon is in the 7th house…


Pamela Gray says:
July 26, 2014 at 12:56 pm
…the moon is in the 7th house…
I saw saw “solar” and “planetary” ; i didn’t see “lunar’ or “moon”
Better read it again . . . 🙂

Pamela Gray

Key words: “…what is happening with the Sun, the planets and the conditions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field,” Ergo the moon is in the seventh house. And I am barred from singing it.


Pamela Gray says:
July 26, 2014 at 12:56 pm
The particle physicists & astrophysicists at Harvard & at Stanford’s linear accelerator who used to have Web pages on the climatic effects of magnetic field modulation of cosmic ray flux are not hairy hippies.


OK, well some might still be hairy.


I’m starting to think there’s a huge underground society of people who worship the Sun as the all powerful much as other people worship CO2 as the all powerful. Those two camps should get together and exchange notes now that I think about it. /sarc


Pamela Gray says:
July 26, 2014 at 9:25 am
Monckton of Brenchley, you have to be kidding. I get more hot flashes in the six months before each El Nino. Wonder what that connection is between my hormones and the top few meters of the equatorial Pacific ocean.

FWIW, here is an extract from an article by Mike Foster in the (absurdist) Weekly World News of July 29, 2003, page 9:

Women’s Hot Flashes Cause Global Warming!
“There are more than 900 million middle-aged women worldwide in the early stages of menopause who are experiencing what is commonly known as hot flashes on a regular basis,” professor of meteorology Dr. Cyrill Sanders told a convention of environmental experts in Osaka, Japan.
The researchers acknowledge that the contribution of each woman to the rise in temperature is minuscule–less than .0000000023 degrees Fahrenheit per year. But when that number is multiplied by 900 million the result is a yearly temperature increase of more than two degrees.
The study has been greeted with skepticism by Sanders’ fellow scientists . . . . And the researcher’s conclusions have feminists hot under the collar.
“This is what happens when scientific research is distorted by sexism,” says Dr. Brigitta Watson, a 49-year-old British scientist who attended the conference . . . . “To lay the blamer at the doorstep of menopausal women is the act of a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal.”


PS: Here are a few other absurdist headlines from the Weekly World News:

Second-Hand Gas Kills 130,000 Americans a Year: Flatulence Crisis Hits Epidemic Proportions
Meat-Eating Lions Devour Vegetarian Missionaries
Whatta Gas! “My Boyfriend Floated Away After Inhaling Helium Balloons!”
Idiots Forming National Union: America’s 50 Million Dummies Unite!
Granny Builds a Super Bicep Playing Slots
World’s Smallest Cows: Farmer Breeds New Mini-Cattle That Stand Just 18 Inches High!

Theodore White says:
July 26, 2014 at 12:38 pm
Thanks for sharing that. My forecast for the next La Nina is for late next year. Also, El Nino should warm up at the end of this year or early January, and will then peak in April. Solar influences are an important influence, as you point out.
@ milodonharlani…several years ago I had voiced a similar question as Monckton of Brenchley asks. I was politely told in the ensuing comments that there was no way. The thought that I had was ” can an oceanic temperature change of enough magnitude lead to contraction or expansion in a large enough portion of base bedrock to cause additional quake stresses?”.

Monckton of Brenchley & milodonharlani
I collected tectonic data for sub-equatorial Pacific 1950-2013,
result is indicative of a moderate correlation.

Its over. Will be lucky to classify as a weak El nino.
That subsurface warming will amount to nothing at all.
Whats interesting is that we are seeing rapid cooling and yet the cooler waters haven’t surfaced yet.
So 1 and 2 will cool now and spread west, and will counter any warming to follow.
My only question is can we have a La nina next year of any significance without an El nino first?
Probably not.

Bill Jamison

We could really use a strong El Nino here in California to end the drought. Weak El Ninos don’t necessarily bring wet winters while strong ones generally do. It seems hope is fading – or has faded – for a strong El Nino. The picture should be much clearer in a couple of months.

@ Sweet Old Bob says:
July 26, 2014 at 11:06 am
Rarely do I read something that is so profound as to affect the power struggle between husband and wife. Yet now I have! Many thanks! I will use it. 😉

Theodore White
Nice compilation! I endorse most of it as I have also got similar results by using an Artificial Neural Network.
ENSO is driven mainly by tidal and by electromagnetic solar forcing.
It is amazing for me to see that the establish climate community are what I call thermodynamic and fluid dynamic fundamentalists and that is the reason that they are so ignorant of what it is that drives climate change and changes in ENSO.
The reason that today’s so called climate scientists are unable to link tidal and solar effect to climate change and ENSO is because in order to find this out they have to go outside of their area of competence and they refuse to do that, not least by ideological reasons.
That is why they are going to continue to fail in their predictions as long as they ignore and avoid to understand the real dominant drivers of the climate and ENSO.