I was corresponding quite a bit with Anthony after he let me share my weatherbell.com post on WUWT. (See: Bastardi: ‘potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend’ ) Much of it was in frustration, because by looking at some of the comments I realized there were people that did not understand why I shared the post. So, now that Arthur is gone, and you can judge the merit of the forecast, let me explain my motive.
At weatherbell.com premium, Joe D Aleo and I try to show our “why” before the “what”.
We let readers know what we are looking at and how we come to our conclusion. Here is what I figure, if show people the methodology, they will at least understand that this is about trying to win each fight with the weather as it comes to me. Its like wrestling. The great wrestlers “chain wrestle” They react based on past preparation to the situation they are in. They are relentless. They understand there will be times when their opponent may gain advantage, but their training and determination will mean that the adversity they are in can be turned into advantage. I have used that all my life. I know I will get beat sometimes, but if I then use that, the next time it comes up, I can win.
And that is where knowing the past weather comes in! You see climatology is huge to us. I pulled out the maps of Alex in 2004, I could have pulled others out, but because I believe knowing where you are in the climate cycle and what has happened before is the foundation on which you reach for the future, it gives you the CHANCE, not assures you, but the CHANCE to be right about a future event. The atmosphere is a relentless majestic opponent that doesn’t sleep, doesn’t feel and is constantly changing. Only a fool would believe that he can conquer or control it ( see where I am going here). Yet if you love the weather, only a coward would run from the fight with it. The bottom line is that you have to be willing to take hits, and learn from it. And for me, it has taught me things far beyond this field, of a more spiritual nature.
So that is my “forecasting” attitude. Its why though I am aging and not what I used to be physically, I am still involved with training guys on USA wrestling, because it reminds me you have to fight to excel. I was never a great wrestler, but I was taught you have to be willing to fight with nothing to have a chance to fight for everything. What would you do for 1 point? How hard would you work, to face that moment down when all looks lost. The weather and climate is so much more than weather and climate to me.
With all this in mind, the post was a warning shot to the agw agenda not to go there when this played out. Don’t tell us after the fact that because a storm happen to hit July 4 ( early) that it was because of co2. Don’t tell us it got stronger than it would have, when we showed why it was going too. It was because of large scale natural events that apparently you don’t understand, or don’t want to acknowledge, and by showing what I did before, that it was predictable. It was meant to show people who either know what I know, and wont admit it, or don’t know ( more likely) and don’t want to know the “why before the what” And climatology will show us the “what” ( previous event) , leading the good forecaster to discover the “why” to predict the “what” when he or she sees it again. Its an endless circle of dependence. Climatology is the foundation on which I stand as a forecast. I don’t have a degree in it, but it was drilled into me by my dad from when I was a kid, that the great forecaster had to be able to know and understand what happened before, so when he saw it again, he would have a chance.
Most of you do not get weatherbell.com premium. So you don’t see what Joe D Aleo and I do every day. We are not “climatebell.com” but why would I deny what forms the basis for what I do?
That being said, aren’t you all pursuing the truth when you put out a forecast, or comment. If you are, then you should use the facts of the past and be able to stand on them. How many of the Monday morning climatic ambulance chasers that come out after the fact on a matter, say anything 5 days before? They want an army of fools to follow them into battle, but aren’t willing to show they know tomorrow, by using what actually happened yesterday. And then they sit on high and throw down their missives of mayhem after the fact.
Well Anthony and I set a trap for them, a why before the what, using natural and predictable factors , several days before. Lets see how many of them will be foolish enough to take the bait.
The forecast one makes is an attempt to find the truth before it happens. To do so, you must know the truth about what happened before. If the pursuit about the truth of a future event is what the weather is about, why would I back away from people telling lies about something I know and use. Has nothing to do with fossil fuels, the economy, or politics. Has everything to do with answering the why before the what.