The updates from NOAA’s SWPC are now available, and there are big jumps all around in February 2014.
Sunspot number reaches the highest ever for SC24:
10.7cm radio flux reaches the highest ever for SC24:
Ap magnetic index, while up, has not surpassed previously higher values in SC24
In other news, Davis Archibald offers this update:
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Solar Update March 2014
David Archibald
Figure 1: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2014
With Solar Cycle 24 maximum in March 2013 (see the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle in Figure 5 below) and a one year lag between solar activity and neutron count, we have probably seen the minimum neutron count for this cycle. The minimum count is well above the minimum value for Solar Cycle 20.
Figure 2: Oulu Neutron Count for Solar Cycles 20 to 24 aligned on month of minimum
In terms of neutron count, Solar Cycle 24 isn’t much weaker than the previous four cycles at a similar stage of development.
Figure 3: Solar Wind Flow Pressure 1971 – 2014
What is really interesting is what has happened to the solar wind flow pressure. Despite a high sunspot number and F10.7 flux for this cycle, in January 2014 the solar wind flow pressure fell to a new low of 1.2 nPa for the instrumental record. With another 10 years of solar cycle fall time ahead of us, this suggests that the neutron count is going to be impressive by the end of the decade.
Figure 4: Ap Index 1932 – 2014
Similarly, despite high sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux values, the Ap Index appears to be in a new regime with current values around the previous apparent floor level of activity for the instrumental record.
Figure 5: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle
Based on the heliospheric tilt angle, Solar Cycle 24 maximum was in Carrington rotation 2134, which is March 2013. With the Solar cycle 23/24 minimum in December 2008, Solar Cycle 24 rise time was 4 years and three months.
Figure 6: Monthly F10.7 Flux 1948 – 2014
The F10.7 flux is having a new peak of activity.
Figure 7: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 – 2014
As with the solar wind flow pressure and Ap Index, the interplanetary magnetic field appears to be in a new regime in Solar Cycle 24 in which peak activity is at about the level of the previous floor of activity.
Figure 8: Solar Cycle 24 relative to the Dalton Minimum
Solar Cycle 24 had been tracking Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, quite closely in terms of monthly sunspot number. It is now somewhat stronger at the same stage of the cycle.
Figure 9: Solar Cycles 1749 – 2040
Livingstone and Penn’s forecast of a Solar Cycle 25 maximum amplitude of 7 is still the only prediction of the size of that cycle from the solar physics community. We are still a few years out before solar poloidal field strength can be used to estimate the size of the next cycle.
Figure 10: Predicted Solar Cycle 24 peak sunspot number
Of 54 predictions of Solar Cycle 24 peak amplitude, the six at the bottom of the range could be considered to be in the ball park of the achieved result. This suggests that the solar physics community’s understanding of the Sun, and thus climate, has the potential to evolve further. From: Pesnell, W.D., Predictions of Solar Cycle 24, Solar Phys., 252, 209-220, 2008
Bob Weber says:
March 5, 2014 at 9:25 am
John Finn, I remember the 1970s (and not from the TV show) – I was a teenager then….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I too remember the 1960s and 1970s and the numb toes, frost bite and 30 degrees below zero (F). I rode my horse bareback with his blanket on in the winter it was so cold and he was not even clipped. Never turned a sweat either. (1966-68 in Rochester NY)
John Finn says:
March 5, 2014 at 8:16 am
Richard M says:
March 5, 2014 at 6:41 am
John Finn says:
March 5, 2014 at 5:26 am
-PDO and weaker sun in 1960s-1970s …. more cooling
I maintain there was no cooling. The cooling began in the 1940s. Warming began in the 1970s. This comment, therefore, is irrelevant.
The raw data shows quite a bit of cooling.
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Raw data is available – so can you show that this raw data actually supports your assertion that there was cooling in the 1970s. Several independent researchers has produced their own global temperature index. All show pretty much he same result.
Perhaps you’ve got an alternative?
The raw data works fine for me. I suspect the various errors average out pretty close to zero over time. Hence, my alternative already exists. Just look at the raw data.
Unfortunately, no tool exists to plot this data that I have seen. The climate cartel hides it pretty well.
Bob Weber says: March 5, 2014 at 9:25 am
Exactly so. To say there’s no cooling over that period is a nonsense. Just look at the increasing amplitude of the diffentials (HadCRUT4 – Annual Signal) as the cycle progressed and the downturns got deeper. Wilder extremes – exactly what’s happening now.
You don’t plot temperature and draw a bloody line over it – it hides the truth. What is the difference between weather and climate? Climate is not the average of weather, it’s the consistency of weather – big difference!
AJB says:
I remember Mr. Finn on this Solar cycle 20 was not associated with cooling kick at Warwick Hughes’ site back in 2008 when David Archibald was just getting rolling.
He appears still to be working out the bugs. GLWT.
Gail Combs says:
March 5, 2014 at 9:30 am
A Solar connection is just speculation but the Dalton was kicked off by the high Arctic VEI 6 eruption of Laki. Mr. Finn is fond of saying the Earth was simply emerging from it a cooled condition when the Dalton happened along.
But the backend of the Dalton was occasioned with the eruptions of Soufriere in 1812, Mayon in 1814 and finally Tambora in 1815.
David Archibald says:
“The 1890s were very cold due to weaker solar output due to a de Vries cycle low.”
There was an increase in cold shots to the mid latitudes through the weaker solar cycles 12 to 14.
Two to three weak cycles occur together on average every 10 solar cycles (110.7yrs), as in late Spörer (1570’s on.), late Maunder, and Dalton minimums. Cycles 12-14 came earlier than the average placement, the reason for this can be demonstrated astronomically. Cycles 24&25 are back on track at the average interval for the weaker cycles. Twice the 110.7yr period does not actually fit the de Vries periodicity.
gary gulrud says: @ur momisugly March 5, 2014 at 2:25 pm
Gail Combs says:
March 5, 2014 at 9:30 am
A Solar connection is just speculation….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There are a heck of a lot of papers out there that disagree with that.
Unfortunately if I put up more than two URLs the comment gets booted into the ether so I will use Poptech’s link to his listing of papers LINKY
Here is one that is on target and from 2013.
Gail Combs,
You are an encyclopedia of information!
I would be tempted to say that I would like to know as much as you may have forgotten but then you may not have forgotten anything. I always look forward to your contributions. Thank you.
Gail Combs says:
March 5, 2014 at 5:21 pm
Why looky here:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/180/4082/185.abstract
Dr. S is so self-effacing.
I suspect using fourmilab’s orrery a deep minimum 1750 BC possibly dating a hapiru vizier in Egypt.
Leif,
In 2011 you wrote on your webpage http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Cycle-24.png : “Welcome to Solar Max”. I admit that I also thought a long time (until the end of 2013) that the maximum of this cycle was behind us. But the sun’s behaviour is unpredictable…
rikgheysens says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:34 am
In 2011 you wrote on your webpage http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Cycle-24.png : “Welcome to Solar Max”. I admit that I also thought a long time (until the end of 2013) that the maximum of this cycle was behind us. But the sun’s behaviour is unpredictable…
I rather think the Sun is somewhat predictable. Again, compare with cycle 14 [and others]: The ‘maximum can be a long drawn-out affair taking several years to unfold. SC24 is no exception. The ‘flaw’ comes in when one thinks that the ‘maximum’ is a well-defined moment in time. It is not.
lsvalgaard says:
March 6, 2014 at 5:29 am
rikgheysens says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:34 am
In 2011 you wrote on your webpage http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Cycle-24.png : “Welcome to Solar Max”. I admit that I also thought a long time (until the end of 2013) that the maximum of this cycle was behind us. But the sun’s behaviour is unpredictable…
I rather think the Sun is somewhat predictable. Again, compare with cycle 14 [and others]: The ‘maximum can be a long drawn-out affair taking several years to unfold. SC24 is no exception. The ‘flaw’ comes in when one thinks that the ‘maximum’ is a well-defined moment in time. It is not.
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Being “somewhat predictable” to some is like being somewhat pregnant. But I understand what Leif says here. For example, it is known that there are cycles, we just don’t know precisely what the shape (magnitude) of all the plotted parameters is going to be.
Mario Lento says:
March 6, 2014 at 8:27 am
Being “somewhat predictable” to some is like being somewhat pregnant.
I disagree. ‘Predictable’ can be quantified to degrees, while pregnancy cannot, so the two things are fundamentally different.
lsvalgaard says:
March 6, 2014 at 8:55 am
Mario Lento says:
March 6, 2014 at 8:27 am
Being “somewhat predictable” to some is like being somewhat pregnant.
I disagree. ‘Predictable’ can be quantified to degrees, while pregnancy cannot, so the two things are fundamentally different.
++++++++++
Agreed – that’s why I wrote “Being “somewhat predictable to some… “. I agree completely with what you’re saying. I just did not say it as well as you.
Henry Galt. says:
March 5, 2014 at 2:03 am
“That looks amazing. Could you add solar wind speed and density, etc?”
Thanks Henry,
I’ve added all the usual sources for daily viewing, There’s actually a lot more than just an image viewer, I’ve been working on many different tools to add to the program.
I’ll be adding the simulator tool as demo (for feedback), it’s unfinished but it can be used to view custom STEREO Heliographic Maps or satellite cloud mosaics etc…
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/001015.jpg
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/001016.jpg
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/001017.jpg
It’s an on going project and It’s basically a new toy for the solar geeks to play with. lol
Dr.Svalgaard, so basically the sun is not in sinc this cycle, right?? The northern hemisphere changed polarity first and now the south is changing giving us the “double peaks” correct?? Also, I understand the northern hemisphere is drifting back to ‘neutral’ polatity. Is it possible for a hemisphere to be neutral in polarity …how about the sun as a whole, or can both hemisphere’s be of the same polarity ?
Dominic Manginell says:
March 7, 2014 at 11:00 am
“Is it possible for a hemisphere to be neutral in polarity …how about the sun as a whole, or can both hemisphere’s be of the same polarity ?”
During solar minimum either north or south geographical region has either positive or negative magnetic polarity, during solar maximum the magnetic polarities cross each-other at the geographical equator, there are always two polarities, positive(+) and negative(-).
Dominic Manginell says:
March 7, 2014 at 11:00 am
Dr.Svalgaard, so basically the sun is not in sinc this cycle, right?? The northern hemisphere changed polarity first and now the south is changing giving us the “double peaks” correct?? Also, I understand the northern hemisphere is drifting back to ‘neutral’ polarity. Is it possible for a hemisphere to be neutral in polarity …how about the sun as a whole, or can both hemisphere’s be of the same polarity ?
All of this has happened before and this cycle is not especially abnormal, see e.g.
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202012%20SH12A-07.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/Asymmetric-Solar-Polar-Field-Reversals-talk.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/ApJ88587.pdf
lsvalgaard says:
March 7, 2014 at 6:15 pm
“All of this has happened before and this cycle is not especially abnormal”
The current cycle is weaker, not “abnormal”, and it’s certainly not a cycle that would exacerbate global warming.
Leif thinks I’m pushing a theory.
lsvalgaard says:
March 6, 2014 at 5:29 am
I rather think the Sun is somewhat predictable. Again, compare with cycle 14 [and others]: The ‘maximum can be a long drawn-out affair taking several years to unfold. SC24 is no exception. The ‘flaw’ comes in when one thinks that the ‘maximum’ is a well-defined moment in time. It is not.
I can only ascertain that, after about 60 months, SC 24 resembles much more to SC 12 than to SC 14. See http://users.skynet.be/fc298377/Sun/Comparison_betw_SC24_SC12_14.pdf. According to http://www.solen.info/solar/, the smoothly monthly maximum could be reached in October 2013 (consultation on March 8, 2014). I don’t see the many repeating peaks of SC 14 in SC 24.
lsvalgaard says:
March 7, 2014 at 6:15 pm
Dominic Manginell says:
March 7, 2014 at 11:00 am
Dr.Svalgaard, so basically the sun is not in sinc this cycle, right?? The northern hemisphere changed polarity first and now the south is changing giving us the “double peaks” correct?? Also, I understand the northern hemisphere is drifting back to ‘neutral’ polarity…
All of this has happened before and this cycle is not especially abnormal, see e.g.
——————————————————–
Maybe dis will help Dominic..
According too…
http://www.leif.org/research/ApJ88587.pdf
Asymmetric Solar Polar Field Reversals
…”””the strongly asymmetric solar Cycle 19, when the Southern
Hemisphere was most active before sunspot maximum and the South Pole duly
reversed first, followed by the Northern Hemisphere more than a year later, when
that hemisphere became most active. Solar cycles since then have had the opposite
asymmetry, with the Northern Hemisphere being most active before solar
maximum. We show that polar field reversals for these cycles have as expected
all happened first in the North. This is especially noteworthy for the present
solar Cycle 24. We suggest that the association of two or more peaks of solar
activity when separated by hemispheres with correspondingly different times of
polar field reversals is a general feature of the cycle”””,…
And Dominic one hemisphere will dominate for over 65years sometimes.
For me .. a clue.. to the Interstellar magnetic field and wind background. May be, showing signs of some periodicity? Go figure interstellar clouds located inside super rotating shell (current sheets). Surrounded by other rotating super shells. Showing alternating polarity on a 65 to hundred or so years periodicity? That changes the the GCR direction with IMF (interstellar M F) polarity.
Dominic .. why not ask Dr. S., if he thinks that the hemispheric asymmetry is now changing back to southern dominate?
Oh boy .. now wondering about the evolution of sectors and boundarys over the solar surface for a 65 to a 100 years or so … period.
The solar heliotail continues hundreds of AU in the downwind, showing ‘its’ alternating polarity, we have learned.
Carla says:
March 8, 2014 at 12:13 pm
Oh boy .. now wondering about the evolution of sectors and boundaries over the solar surface for a 65 to a 100 years or so … period.
some info here: http://www.leif.org/research/Long-term%20Evolution%20of%20Solar%20Sector%20Structure.pdf and here
http://www.leif.org/research/Solar%20Sector%20Structure.pdf
rikgheysens says:
March 8, 2014 at 7:53 am
I don’t see the many repeating peaks of SC 14 in SC 24.
Part of the reason is that we are not done with SC24 yet. So far we have only seen three peaks, more to come.