The updates from NOAA’s SWPC are now available, and there are big jumps all around in February 2014.
Sunspot number reaches the highest ever for SC24:
10.7cm radio flux reaches the highest ever for SC24:
Ap magnetic index, while up, has not surpassed previously higher values in SC24
In other news, Davis Archibald offers this update:
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Solar Update March 2014
David Archibald
Figure 1: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2014
With Solar Cycle 24 maximum in March 2013 (see the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle in Figure 5 below) and a one year lag between solar activity and neutron count, we have probably seen the minimum neutron count for this cycle. The minimum count is well above the minimum value for Solar Cycle 20.
Figure 2: Oulu Neutron Count for Solar Cycles 20 to 24 aligned on month of minimum
In terms of neutron count, Solar Cycle 24 isn’t much weaker than the previous four cycles at a similar stage of development.
Figure 3: Solar Wind Flow Pressure 1971 – 2014
What is really interesting is what has happened to the solar wind flow pressure. Despite a high sunspot number and F10.7 flux for this cycle, in January 2014 the solar wind flow pressure fell to a new low of 1.2 nPa for the instrumental record. With another 10 years of solar cycle fall time ahead of us, this suggests that the neutron count is going to be impressive by the end of the decade.
Figure 4: Ap Index 1932 – 2014
Similarly, despite high sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux values, the Ap Index appears to be in a new regime with current values around the previous apparent floor level of activity for the instrumental record.
Figure 5: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle
Based on the heliospheric tilt angle, Solar Cycle 24 maximum was in Carrington rotation 2134, which is March 2013. With the Solar cycle 23/24 minimum in December 2008, Solar Cycle 24 rise time was 4 years and three months.
Figure 6: Monthly F10.7 Flux 1948 – 2014
The F10.7 flux is having a new peak of activity.
Figure 7: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 – 2014
As with the solar wind flow pressure and Ap Index, the interplanetary magnetic field appears to be in a new regime in Solar Cycle 24 in which peak activity is at about the level of the previous floor of activity.
Figure 8: Solar Cycle 24 relative to the Dalton Minimum
Solar Cycle 24 had been tracking Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, quite closely in terms of monthly sunspot number. It is now somewhat stronger at the same stage of the cycle.
Figure 9: Solar Cycles 1749 – 2040
Livingstone and Penn’s forecast of a Solar Cycle 25 maximum amplitude of 7 is still the only prediction of the size of that cycle from the solar physics community. We are still a few years out before solar poloidal field strength can be used to estimate the size of the next cycle.
Figure 10: Predicted Solar Cycle 24 peak sunspot number
Of 54 predictions of Solar Cycle 24 peak amplitude, the six at the bottom of the range could be considered to be in the ball park of the achieved result. This suggests that the solar physics community’s understanding of the Sun, and thus climate, has the potential to evolve further. From: Pesnell, W.D., Predictions of Solar Cycle 24, Solar Phys., 252, 209-220, 2008
John Finn says: March 4, 2014 at 2:07 am
No cherry picking method. The Sun is a messy place. So is Earth and the bit in between. You cannot pick apart complex chaotic systems using standard linear regression and associated numerology. It is a nonsense, period. Timing is everything and all there is to work with. These timelines are well aligned and deltas are consistently year on year using monthly data (the quality of which I cannot know). Start from the bottom and work up looking for inflection in preference to amplitude. The sunspot record is deliberately not smoothed. Ozone production and destruction looks suspiciously like a two-way street operating at high frequency, which is obscured by smoothing.
http://postimg.org/image/nxpfsxpyf/full
Rats, forgot to replace the source literal on HadCRUT4.2 stuff. Here is the correct one:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.2.0.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt
Carla very interesting study the behavior of gas in the stratosphere.
http://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/summary-the-physics-of-the-earths-atmosphere-papers-1-3/#introduction
Sparks says:
March 4, 2014 at 5:23 pm “”””
That looks amazing. Could you add solar wind speed and density, etc?
“You cannot pick apart complex chaotic systems using standard linear regression and associated numerology.”
When the only tool in your kit is a hammer, the Sun and its history appears as a nail.
Jai Mitchell says:
March 3, 2014 at 2:26 pm
“Why does this image show the little ice age ending in 1890.
and your image from this post shows that the solar cycles continued to trend lower until several decades after warming began (until 1915)???”
CET average for 1900-1909 is colder than 1890-1899.
Fine – so what was the climate effect of SC20. I assume you accept that whatever it was it cannot have taken place before 1964. You saying “the sun is a messy place” simply confirms what It is clearly evident, i.e. on close analysis, there is little or no correlation between solar activity and climate.
Further to my post above
I should have added that I was responding to this comment.
I maintain there was no cooling. The cooling began in the 1940s. Warming began in the 1970s. This comment, therefore, is irrelevant.
No matter how “complex” or “chaotic” there is no way the earth’s climate can respond to solar activity 20 years in the future.
John Finn says:
March 5, 2014 at 5:26 am
-PDO and weaker sun in 1960s-1970s …. more cooling
I maintain there was no cooling. The cooling began in the 1940s. Warming began in the 1970s. This comment, therefore, is irrelevant.
The raw data shows quite a bit of cooling. All the data published in 1970s show a strong cooling. As long as you continue to believe the manipulated data you will continue to be confused.
Bob Weber says: @ur momisugly March 3, 2014 at 6:08 pm
…What happens when solar activity goes up? Flux goes up. Flux is the energy per second from photons. Solar activity goes up, flux goes up, and photon energy goes up. When more photon energy hits the Earth, it warms up….
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Bob,
You might like this GRAPH
(H/T to Sleepalot)
Richard M says: @ur momisugly March 3, 2014 at 7:05 pm
There’s really a pretty reasonable explanation…
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Water plus the sun, (don’t forget clouds, snow and ice) that sounds about right.
Edim says: @ur momisugly March 3, 2014 at 11:42 pm
The cycle is weak and long, as already observed (maximum should be at ~2014/15). The next minimum likely not before ~2021/22, assuming the cycle frequency remains low. Temperatures will plummet after the cycle maximum. The ‘postmodern’ minimum?
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The L@ur momisuglyndersheit minimum since he is the one who predicted it many years ago. However he is a b@ur momisuglyrycentric cyclo-mania pariah so it will probably be ‘Officially’ the Eddy minimum.
From WIKI – “In 1989, …. forecast a period of sunspot minima after 1990, accompanied by increased cold…. “
(Even if his basic theory is all wet he did predict the current minima and cool winters.)
John Finn says: @ur momisugly March 4, 2014 at 1:43 am
The cooling clearly began in the 1940s. The 1970s were, if anything, warmer than the 1960s.
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Not quite the 1970’s were cooler and it did not start warming up until the 1980s.
Quantity spots depends on the strength of the magnetic field of solar, and it tends to decrease.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF-latest.gif
Raw data is available – so can you show that this raw data actually supports your assertion that there was cooling in the 1970s. Several independent researchers has produced their own global temperature index. All show pretty much he same result.
Perhaps you’ve got an alternative?
While I agree the cooling is miniscule, I didn’t suggest anything of the sort. Nor do those timelines show that. Sorry I missed the up thread part but I’m not with you here at all. What I’ve tried to point out is the exact opposite – a possible connection between sun spot activity and ozone that appears to be very fast acting (weeks or months, days even). Look again: When you see a marked rising edge to the sunspot count, total ozone drops and visa-versa (the ozone vertical axis is inverted to make it easier to follow). But you have to consider the range. If it’s flacking about fairly consistently ozone remains flat. The lower edge of the range is as important as the upper and the amplitude is secondary. It’s the relative localised amplitude that matters, not the change over the entire solar cycle. Yes it’s fuzzy and ill-defined but keep looking and mulling it over. Perhaps something to do with the photochemistry of ozone (or the timing thereof) I know nothing about. What we need first is a smarter filter; then perhaps we can come at it with regression. A clue at best, the data is understandably rough.
Nonsense, you’re blinded by traditional numerology. Get back to physical units of measurement and look harder, the essence is always in the detail. If the solar system was full of simplistic linear correlations it would be a very boring place.
John Finn says: @ur momisugly March 4, 2014 at 5:34 am
…And my point was that OHC is still increasing. More energy is entering the oceans than is leaving.
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Not to worry John.
Earthshine % change in Albedo Graph note inflection point during the 1997-1998 Super El Nino.
Kenny says: @ur momisugly March 4, 2014 at 7:11 am
@ur momisuglySteele……I feel the same way. Time will tell….I’ll wait for the call.
I’m interested to see what this summer brings as far as temps go….
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Keep track of them. The temperatures at my local airport from last summer have been adjusted UP twice already ~2 to 4°F each time.
Instead of five days 90°F and over there are now fifteen days. (The temperatures are always adjusted up by 2-4°F within 24 hours because it is a rural station and it is ‘matched’ to the nearby cities.)
gary gulrud says: @ur momisugly March 4, 2014 at 9:12 am
Next year it’ll be two centuries since the last VEI 8 eruption. I’m thinking we’re about overdue.
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DON”T SAY THAT!
(Now go knock on wood. /sarc)
Actually it is the He 3 /He 4 ratio that is of interest.
If Yellowstone ever blows we are all in a world of hurt and no I do not think it is going to blow but it is worth watching since it is a geologically active area just as Iceland and the Kamchatka Peninsula are.
Many thanks for the link. I’m nowhere near done but learning a good deal.
ren says:
March 5, 2014 at 12:30 am
That is.
Gail Combs says:
March 5, 2014 at 8:46 am
Actually, VEI 8 is open ended. I only had in mind another Tambora, VEI 7 I’m corrected. Sorry for the needless concern.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano
BTW, your’re a treasure, Ma’am.
John Finn, I remember the 1970s (and not from the TV show) – I was a teenager then. This winter’s record temperatures and snow are comparable to the winters from the 70’s, especially 1972-73, and 77-78, 78-79 (in Michigan). It appears this year will be listed at the top with the last two winters in the record books. So while the CET graph doesn’t show it necessarily, the many years during the 1970s are remembered here as “COOOLD and SNOWY”.
One year during the 1970s, our N-S road was drifted over completely, the snow drifts were so high they reached the edge of our single story ranch house roof, and a guy with a payloader had to dig out the entire mile stretch of road, including our driveway. Our town this year looks like it did then: mountains of snow piled up everywhere. We’ve had no melt yet. Provided spring ever returns, it’s going to be a doozy in terms of flooding.
I suppose though that after “smoothing” my memory of the weather during those winters with an orwellian 11-year triple double running average mean statistical machine, I’ll then recall the 1970s as a time of “warming”. /sarc off
Gail – isn’t that amazing: block the sun and the heat does a disappearing act! Wow, who would’ve thought that with all that CO2 warming us up!
John Finn says: @ur momisugly March 5, 2014 at 8:16 am
Raw data is available – so can you show that this raw data actually supports your assertion that there was cooling in the 1970s.
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Another GRAPH showing 1975 was very cold. Since I almost got killed in a snowstorm in SOUTH CAROLINA at that time (see: COLUMBIA, SC: SC’s ‘Blizzard of ’73’ memories still vivid) and the headlines were screaming about a Coming Ice Age, I remember that time very very well. (Got shipped to Germany in 1975 too.)
gary gulrud says: @March 5, 2014 at 8:59 am
Just pulling your leg, I couldn’t resist since I had just read the story yesterday.