This will be a top “sticky” post for awhile since interest is high – new stories will appear below this one – Anthony
UPDATE: Josh channels the boat people
UPDATE2: Another irony is discovered, this one doubly deep. See update 2 below.
UPDATE4: AMSA: Helicopter rescue of Akademik Shokalskiy likely to commence shortly
(It’s off again, then now its on again, with report the helicopter has landed)
UPDATE5: All the passengers (tourists and scientists) are off the ship
UPDATE6: Tough questions need to be asked
UPDATE7: Trouble on the rescue ship – reaching open water not so easy
As we reported previously on WUWT here and here, the saga of the “climate scientists/tourists trapped in ice” continues to fascinate many. Now a second ship has given up on rescue, after the Chinese ship “Snow Dragon” gave up two days ago. The Aurora Australis has abandoned rescue of the trapped Russian “research”vessel in Antarctica and a helicopter evacuation in now being ordered. This episode has taken on a heightened comedic fiasco-like quality.
Now, with such a fantastic failure in full world view, questions are going to start being asked. For example, with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all. Was it simple incompetence of ignoring the signs and data at their disposal combined with “full steam ahead” fever? Even the captain of the Aurora Australis had the good sense to turn back knowing he’d reached the limits of the ship on his rescue attempt. Or, was it some sort of publicity stunt to draw attention? If it was the latter, it has backfired mightily.
One might argue that with photos like the one below, this whole “Spirit of Mawson” research expedition, is little more than a media stunt.
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/412977161323036672 ]
Even after the ship was trapped, these reporters still had a party like atmosphere going on:
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/416881634273525761/photo/1 ]
Yesterday, Andrew Revkin tweeted something that I agreed with, especially since so many of the people trapped in the ice on the ship seem to have a nonchalant, almost partly-like atmosphere going on.
Scientist on trapped Antarctic ship: "Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don't." http://t.co/UsxA2tiV2i What about rescue risk/cost?
— Andrew Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ (@Revkin) December 29, 2013
Yes, the cost and risk is significant. These folks trapped on-board don’t seem to be cognizant of that issue, following the #spiritofmawson Twitter feed, it’s like watching reports (with pictures and video) from a high school class party.
And here’s the kicker. Even the public saw through the charade at the beginning. Trying to get crowd funding from the public for this trip failed miserably as this Indigogo campaign shows:
Source: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-us-return-to-mawson-s-antarctic-hut-the-home-of-the-blizzard
Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous image of Professor Chris Turney in full cold weather gear standing in the midst of a tropical forest.
Right after the ship got stuck and there was a realization that the world was watching, one scientist on-board, Dr. Chris Fogwill, of the University of New South Wales, decided that it would be an opportune time to hit the public for money again:
Source: http://www.spiritofmawson.com/
And again, the public has seen through this, and today, the campaign remains stuck at $1000 with just a few donors. People are realizing that there’s no real science being done on this trip, and that it seems to be little more than a chartered party boat for Antarctic enthusiasts and media.
Now, with the ship to be evacuated via helicopter, will the Akademik Shokalskiy join the list of recent ships that have been sunk in Antarctic waters?
Ships that have sunk in Antarctic waters in recent years (h/t to David Archibald)
The Brazilian yacht “Endless Sea” sank in Maxwell Bay, Ardley Cove on Saturday 7th April, 2012. It was used for “scientific and educational expeditions”.
The sunken remains of the 76-ft Mar Sem Fin, aka “Endless Sea”, which sunk on April 7, 2012, lies at a depth of about 9 meters (30 ft) in Ardley Cove, Antarctica.
In November 2007, the Linblad Explorer hit sea ice and sank.
In April 2013, the Chinese factory fishing ship Kai Xin caught fire and sank near Bransfield Strait at the Antarctic Peninsula.
And there are others, these are just a few recent ones.
With so much concern for the pristine environment of Antarctica, one wonders how much environmental damage these sinkings are doing.
And when the trip is nothing more than a party for your friends and media, disguised as a “scientific expedition”, one wonders if there shouldn’t be some moratorium on such trips.
Richard Tol summed it all up nicely with one sentence:
There has been a strong and statistically significant upward trend in climate-change-related public-relations disasters #spiritofmawson
— Richard Tol (@RichardTol) December 30, 2013
UPDATE:
The #spiritofmawson hashtag is now getting competition from the hashtag #ClitanicDisaster in honor of the trapped climate scientists that the MSM won’t mention as being climate scientists.
========================================================
UPDATE 2:
reader Aphan writes on 2013/12/31 at 7:16 pm
I don’t know if anyone was posted this yet, but the IRONY just gobsmacked me.
The British “explorers” on board the MV Explorer who were “commemorating the Spirit of Shackleton” found themselves repeating HIS adventure when their ship struck a piece of submerged ice and then SANK in the Antarctic in November of 2007! None of the passengers or crew were lost. But HOW AMAZING is it that both the “Spirit of Mawson” trip AND the “Spirit of Shackleton” cruise trips ended in disaster from sea ice?????
http://www.jamescairdsociety.com/shackleton-news-104519.htm
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html
I mean…come on. What are the odds?
============================================================
Related articles
- Saving the Antarctic scientists, er media, er, activists, er tourists trapped by sea ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Antarctic rescue mission fails to reach trapped ship (theguardian.com)
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Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 6:37 pm
National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
It’s a bit more complex than that. I don’t know if they are right or wrong, but to refute this you have to factor in Southern Ocean currents which circle the continent. It is conceivable that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere. I don’t know if this is happening but it is not as ridiculous a hypothesis as you are assuming.
You seem to be grasping at straws there, Antarctic Sea Ice is above average along almost all “points along the Antarctic coast”:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="480"]
Perhaps a more plausible explanation is that Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area reached it’s second highest recorded anomaly on December 23rd, 2013?:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="622"]
Man Bearpig
You wrote: “So, real Antarctic Scientists do not consider this as serious research and he is entitled to have this opinion as real research is suffering those fools.”
I would defer to any serious scientists in Antarctica as far as any critiques they have of this group. My initial post was a response to the narrative that this incident somehow was egg on the face of the entire “climate change community” or climate scientists in general. (i.e. an anecdotal story about a boat getting caught in the ice in Antarctica is really not much of a serious data point about whether the climate is changing). The opinion of other climate scientists was missing previously from the discussion.
Alan Robertson:
You asked: ” Do you make similar accusations against those climate scientists who claim that each and every weather event constitutes proof of their warmunist agenda?”
Yes. Joe or Sue Liberal who sit there and shout that every Tornado or Hurricane is evidence that we need to do “something” about global warming, and don’t have any scientific background on the subject, are just as useless to the discussion as those who say “well it sure was cold in Atlanta today, those climate change scientists are full of crap”.
Alan Robertson:
Forgot to add on my last post that as far as scientists who make such points, I think they are also getting carried away, but no serious scientist actually points to any individual weather event as proof. It is usually in the language of “we can expect more and more severe weather events like this”.
Hi Glenn
Any comment yet on your claim about children not being on the ship? Thanks – J
Chris B.
You wrote: “LOL It’s January 1st, not April 1st. Thanks for having us on. We needed a little humor to relive the stress of the rescue effort.”
Care to share with us your extensive knowledge of the Southern Ocean currents around Antarctica and what the localized weather patterns are? Do you know what the average summer temperatures are at those latitudes? Did you know there has been increased precipitation trend in that area over recent years? Care to weigh in on the causes of that? If you want to laugh, give me some science to back up your joke.
Latest news on the Rescue from the Australian ABC website/just in News
“The Australian Maritime Safety Authority now says current sea ice conditions mean a planned rescue will likely not go ahead today (2PM Jan 2, Aussie time).
AMSA says the Chinese ice breaker Xue Long’s helicopter is unable to land on the Aurora Australis due to load restrictions and it is not safe to land the helicopter next to the AMSA vessel.
AMSA says all passengers and crew are safe and well and that “alternative measures to complete the rescue are now being investigated”.”
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 7:08 pm
Forgot to add on my last post that as far as scientists who make such points, I think they are also getting carried away, but no serious scientist actually points to any individual weather event as proof. It is usually in the language of “we can expect more and more severe weather events like this”.
But this is conjecture as to date there has been no measurable increase in severe weather events, including Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, etc. To learn more about this please visit the WUWT “Extreme Weather” Reference Page;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/extreme-weather-page/
Tropical Cyclone Page;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/tropical-cyclone/
and Tornado Page:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/tornado/
Note that all graphs and graphics on the WUWT Reference Pages are linked directly to their sources so you can validate their veracity for yourself.
Link to the ABC news
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-02/passengers-on-stranded-antarctic-ship-prepare-for-rescue/5181828
Yes, news from The Australian, BBC and Guardian say no Chinese takeaway Thursday. 🙂
Johanna
Sorry I didn’t get back to that sooner as I have been trying to cover a lot of bases. First off, where did I claim there were no kids on board? I asked about their presence as it hadn’t been mentioned in the two blog entries by Anthony I had read, or the news reports I had read on the topic, but it didn’t shock me. (Anyone have their actual ages yet?) As far as “why are they there”, well I can only guess but if a professor has made multiple trips to Antarctica, and wants his children to have the experience of tagging along and seeing Antarctica, what does that really have to do with the scientific merit in of itself? Especially if the wife is also along riding on the boat and presumably would be the one primarily responsible for keeping tabs. I don’t know at what age I would be comfortable bringing my own children on such a voyage, but I don’t see what the angle is here? Whether the voyage had any scientific merit would not be determined by the presence of any children somewhere on the boat.
Just The Facts:
You wrote: “You seem to be grasping at straws there, Antarctic Sea Ice is above average along almost all “points along the Antarctic coast”: You also wrote: “there has been no measurable increase in severe weather events, including Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, etc.”
For both of these points, I was not speaking to my own personal views. In the first case (Sea Ice) I was pointing out to another poster that there are several possible explanations that go much further in depth than simply “why would ice be melting on land then refreezing in the water, that’s ridiculous”. I am well aware that this year has seen an increase in ice. I would also point out that in June of 2009 it was unseasonably cold where I live, and this summer it was unseasonably hot that same month. Those two data points by themselves as you know, don’t refute a “trend” either way when it comes to these sorts of things.
As far as the second case (severe weather), at this point I personally do not advocate pointing to storms as a sign of anything. I lean more towards looking for any shifts in overall regional weather patterns (i.e. severe drought in some areas while other areas start getting significantly more rain).
Dirk H,
You wrote: “Of course it doesn’t. The climate models finished that job a long time ago.”
I would encourage you to actually look up the definition of “The Scientific Method”. You might also want to consider the level and complexity of the math that actually goes into the field. Climate Science is not based on the idea that “humans cause global warming, lets prove it”, It is based on the idea of trying to find how different elements of the environment interact to influence the climate, and how changes in environment may change the climate. If it was decided tomorrow that humans are not having any significant impact on climate change, there would still be “Climate Science”, as there is much to explore and learn in the field, and much valuable information still needed. Only in America has this field really been politicized to such a significant extent.
Glenn,
Have a look at the bios of the “Scientists” on the Spirit of Mawson web site if you need proof that these folks are milking the cow under the guise of Climate Change. In fact, they brought a cadre of reporters (and intractable preconceived notions) to chronical the ecological sins of humankind. In short, it is these fools (and dozens of their international cronies) who have discredited Climate Science.
When thirty years of accurate polar data is offered as evidence of a warming planet…Climate Science is discredited.
When media outlets incessantly parrot Arctic sea ice extents, but ignore the growth in Antarctic extents…Climate Science is discredited.
When a handful of tree ring sample reconstruction samples are carefully selected to produce the desired result…Climate Science is discredited.
The climate has and will continue change. It’s high time Climate Science steps out of the cave; because it’s abundantly clear that Bacon’s idols have severely limited its ability to discern thuths.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:07 pm
Wow lots to get to, so I’ll do my best and stick to the more serious posters.
I’ll just start by using this post to clarify that I did not intend to be a bomb thrower, so on second look I would tone down my original post a bit. I appreciate any genuine discussion. If you think I am being a dick, call me out on it.
*******************************************************************************************************************
[trimmed. Cut it out. Mod]
The Age/SMH reports (about an hour ago) that the Chinese ship is now stuck in ice and that the Aurora Australis is no longer attempting to get along side of her.
“It is unlikely the Aurora will attempt to reach the Xue Long, which is on the other side of a pack fault line and so drifting in another direction. The ship’s captain Murray Doyle and voyage leader Leanne Millhouse, from the Australian Antarctic Division, are now weighing up alternative rescue plans.”
http://www.theage.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.html
I used to work on those airplanes and I really don’t think they would like that experience very much. It looked like a whiplash event to me.Though in an absolute do or die emergency, I’d try it, but only as an absolute last resort!
And Britain, and Australia, and New Zeeland, and Canada, and Germany and…and…and…and… The politicization of climate science is its main feature.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:33 pm
Johanna
Sorry I didn’t get back to that sooner as I have been trying to cover a lot of bases.
———————————-
It’s tough being a 12-year old isn’t it ?
Apparently I need to read before posting…didn’t mean to offend any New Zealanders out there. I really do know how to spell your wonderful country’s name when I take my time.
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 7:47 pm
In the first case (Sea Ice) I was pointing out to another poster that there are several possible explanations that go much further in depth than simply “why would ice be melting on land then refreezing in the water, that’s ridiculous”. I am well aware that this year has seen an increase in ice.
Would you agree that the “increase in ice” is a more plausible explanation for the Akademik Shokalskiy’s predicament than “that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere.”?
I would also point out that in June of 2009 it was unseasonably cold where I live, and this summer it was unseasonably hot that same month. Those two data points by themselves as you know, don’t refute a “trend” either way when it comes to these sorts of things.
There’s a big difference between the monthly weather around your house and Global Sea Ice Area. What “trend” are you refering to?
I lean more towards looking for any shifts in overall regional weather patterns (i.e. severe drought in some areas while other areas start getting significantly more rain).
Earth hasn’t warmed for 9 – 17 years depending on which data set you look at;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/15/a-big-picture-look-at-earths-temperature-santer-17-update/
why would you expect any “shifts in overall regional weather patterns”? Does CO2 have some magical regional weather pattern shifting capacity we have yet to be apprised of?…
negrum,
I think I still need to get back to your second post to me in which you asked: “For clarification on your point #4, could you cite the link of the post that you are referring to? This will help me to ensure we are talking about the same thing.”
I was referring to this post: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/ and specifically the chart relating to Arctic ice cover from September to December. I took issue with the idea that an upward trend over the last few months refutes the idea that sea ice in the Arctic has been disappearing. The chart actually shows that the typical upward trend over the last few months is still on the low side of the typical average for this time of year. Others have since pointed to the fact that the Summer of 2013 saw an increase in Arctic Ocean sea ice from the previous summer, however this does not refute the fact that the long term trend has been alarming. There is a reason the Northwest passage is being viewed as potentially a summer shipping lane in the near future. Speak to the Inuit people of Greenland and you won’t find any telling you that things have stayed static up there.
@Glenn7:55
Try taking your own advice, then go read the CRU emails, on the WUWT reference page as Climate Gate.
Then the IPCC Fourth Assessment, the leaked 5th and then the sanitized official Fifth report.
You sound like a troll, but I am willing to give you the benefit of doubt.
Scientific method.. Excellent; please apply the method to the speculation that CO2 emissions by mankind,cause the planet to warm up(overwhelming all known natural systems) and that this imaginary warming will be detrimental to the planet and mankind.
State your theory, detail your empirical measurements, outline why you may be mistaken and propose measurement that might falsify this theory.
Most readers here have only been waiting 30 years for this to be done, so go for it, you can break the impasse of belief versus science.
Nobel prize and knighthood awaiting.
Philip Tomas (@BadScience) . Thanks for the fun video.
Oooohhhh .. looks rough coming off of water…imagine being ripped along some jagged ice floes. Ouch. Maybe more like instance death.
The last line (as others have already noted) about “only used with dummies” was too funny.
CAS
Glenn, just in case you are not a troll, my point was that you demanded proof that there were children on the ship before doing the most elementary research. It would have told you that the head of the expedition had his wife and kids on board.
You are either too lazy to be taken seriously, or a troll. Either way, see ya!