Update: the IPCC edifice is crumbling, see The state of climate science: ‘fluxed up’
See also Willis’ article One Step Forward, Two Steps Back, and Lomborg: climate models are running way too hot
This post will be a sticky for awhile, new posts will appear below it. – Anthony
Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change
A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming
by Dr. Matt Ridley
Later this month, a long-awaited event that last happened in 2007 will recur. Like a returning comet, it will be taken to portend ominous happenings. I refer to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) “fifth assessment report,” part of which will be published on Sept. 27.
There have already been leaks from this 31-page document, which summarizes 1,914 pages of scientific discussion, but thanks to a senior climate scientist, I have had a glimpse of the key prediction at the heart of the document. The big news is that, for the first time since these reports started coming out in 1990, the new one dials back the alarm. It states that the temperature rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPPC thought in 2007.
Admittedly, the change is small, and because of changing definitions, it is not easy to compare the two reports, but retreat it is. It is significant because it points to the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the planet.
Specifically, the draft report says that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” (ECS)—eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur—is “extremely likely” to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), “likely” to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and “very likely” to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was “likely” to be above 2 degrees Celsius and “very likely” to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since “extremely” and “very” have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.
Still, the downward movement since 2007 is clear, especially at the bottom of the “likely” range. The most probable value (3 degrees Celsius last time) is for some reason not stated this time.
…
Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC’s emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.
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Above are excerpts of an article Dr. Ridley has written for the Wall Street Journal, who kindly provided WUWT with a copy.
Read the entire story here
Error
“More than 5,000 people have been killed so far this year in Iraq, 800 of them in August alone, according to the United Nations.”
Still appalling figures, still ongoing.
May I enter into the debate, a new player?
Environmental Journalists.
Almost no-one will notice what the IPCC says or does. But they will note a news story in the mainstream media. And the “news” will be spun by the Environmental Journalists.
If AGW is not disastrous, or at least the cause of disasters, then Environmental Journalists are not going to get to publish stories. Then their relevance becomes less. Their credibility is lost. And it isn’t as though the media can carry lots of freeloaders at the moment.
Environmental Journalists amplify alarmism and then feed it back to the politicians and thus boost funding for research that provides alarmism that they then amplify…
My point is that the IPCC is irrelevant unless their change in position is hammered home to news editors –bypassing their usual gatekeepers.
The Environmental Journalists.
@richard verney 1:07am
Thanks for the interest in my 9/14 11:44 am on “Two Sides of the Albedo.” My comment was to draw out AlecMM at 1:14am on what might be a shared concern, that the 33 deg K warming from GHGs is overestimated because they treat the Albedo as a one-way mirror.
I will summarize and link back to expanded comments. The Kiehl-Trenberth diagram (K7T) starts off with the “divide by 4” average insolation. This simplification establishes spherical symmetry which leads to a dead planet [2], iso-thermal atmosphere, without lapse rates, without thermals, without weather. Already the KT diagram has some problems with consistency.
A big one was that they reflect 77 W/m2 (or 99 W/m2 if 30% albedo is used) off the top of cloud albedo. But nothing reflects off the bottom! Instead K7T have reflections off the bottom of albedo layer mixed up with the Back Radiation from GHG’s. This is at best sloppy bookkeeping. It is via this one-way mirror albedo bookkeeping that KT can reduce the ground energy to 240 W/m^2 and a temperature of 255 deg K before the effects of GHG. K7T’s albedo is a Maxwell’s Demon – physical impossibility.
Some of the Surface Radiation must be reflected off the bottom of the Albedo layer even if there are no GHG’s. That results in a leaky trapped wave guide between the surface and the bottom of the albedo. When you do the algebra of the reverberations [1], than the total energy received at the surface by insolation without GHG’s is S * (1-A)/(1-a)
Where S = the solar insolation (340 W/m2 in the KT average case)
A = Albedo of the top (30% is commonly used)
a = Albedo of the bottom of the albedo layer. (what value?)
in K7T diagram, a = 0. They ignore it and move any effect into the GHG column.
In reality “a” will be equal to A, otherwise you create a Maxwell’s Demon. If “a” is not equal to “A”, then a temperature differential across an albedo layer is possible and a backpacker’s liquid oxygen generator [1] is possible if “a” is small.
The discussion with Tim Folkerts from Feb 7, 2012 to Feb. 14. established that spectrum conversion can make “A” not equal to “a”. If “a” is greater than “A”, you can get an oven.
If “a” is less than “A”, you can make a refrigerator out of a cardboard box if you wrap it with the right albedo material. I cannot accept that. If A=99% and a=0, then you could make liquid oxygen in that cardboard box.
But if “a” = “A”, then 340 W/m2 is received at the earth surface without GHG giving 278 deg K, not 255 deg. K. That means GHGs raise temperatures only from 278 deg K to 288 deg K.
References: (I nominate all for a Watts’ Best Collection).
[1] Brown, R.G.; Earth’s baseline black-body model – “a damn hard problem”, Jan 12, 2012, with 446 Responses.
[2] Brown, R.G.; Refutation of Stable Thermal Equilibrium Lapse Rates, Jan. 24, 2012. with 1011 Responses.
[3] Brown, R.G.; What we don’t know about Earth’s energy flow, Jan 6, 2012, 236 Responses.
[4] Eschenbach, W; Perpetuum Mobile, Jan 19, 2012, 911 Responses.
If you were a legit scientist would you now lend your name to the IPCC train wreck? The political class will come and go along with their tax and spend habit but the real scientists are in it for the long haul . Their work is now on the net and will follow them not with just their peer group . Most know this grossly exaggerated scam has run its course.
Obama and his unelected minions will press on with their destructive policies anyway. “Foolks,” he’ll say, “The IPCC has just spoken ag’in, an’ its message is loud and clear. The Earth’s weather is a-changin’. We’ve just had the hottest decade in millions of years. This is the Fifth IPCC Assessment report, AR5, and it says rah-cheer [looks at teleprompter, looks at his hands, sees a book in one of them, holds it up and brandishes it as if it were the Koran] that things haven’t gotten any better since AR1. The time is act is now, not 30 years from now when the climate gets worse. So I’m orderin’ the EPA to shut down all coal-fired electric plants over the next ten years. Screw that Congress thing; I’ve got the Supremes in my pocket.”
[dupe]
“I was standing on a white house toilet, smoking a joint next to the window, and I fell and hit my head on the sink. And that’s when I came up with the idea for the flux capacitor.. which is what makes global warming fraud possible.” – Al Gore, Back In the Money, Part 1.
Baronstone says:
September 14, 2013 at 5:05 am
What I find amazing is that there is any doubt that the planet is warming. You guys are saying that this proves that global warming is a hoax, but this report doesn’t come to that conclusion! In fact it doesn’t come anywhere close to saying that. What it says is that the warming isn’t as severe as was originally predicted. Now that’s nowhere near them saying, “The whole thing was a lie!”
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This is as close to saying exactly that that these people will ever get to.
Mate, the CAGW ship is sinking and you need to find a liferaft ……. FAST.
pyromancer76 said “Europeans appear to have a death wish” As a UK and European citizen I agree with you to some extent, and with up to 25% of German heavy power use industry considering leaving the country and some having already left the signs are there. Not to mention the UK fools of parliament who think they can legislate anything and it will happen, the example in question being an 80% switch to renewables via the building of immense numbers of bird slicers which are known to use more energy to build and maintain than they generate within their limited lifespans.
But I draw no comfort from observing the size of the US national debt combined with the fact that 49% of the US population now gets some sort of state handout. Before long a majority of the US population will be able to vote itself unlimited sate handouts. This can no doubt be propped up for some time by fracking beyond all previous historical cases where a country imploded or collapsed.
Fracking and cheap energy will buy the US time to sort itself out and prevent the biggest ever societal and economic crash in Earth’s history. The question is …
The lunatics in charge of the German Bundes Asylum and the UK House of Gullible Fools are beginning to show signs of moments of lucidity, possibly even glimmers of sanity, so clearly someone is trialling a new form of medication which seems to be showing some promise. Europe may yet come to its senses.
A couple of other WUWT posts I found worth mentioning on Climate Sensitivity.
Monckton; Monckton on Sensitivity Training at Durban, Dec. 5, 2011, 119 Responses. Tagged: Climate Sensitivity (many)
More skepticism on the 33 deg K warming GHG contribution:
Corey, R.; A controversial look at Blackbody radiation and Earth minus GHG’s, Dec. 26, 2011, 239 Responses, Tagged: Black Body (4)
I forgot to mention the name of the new medication which is thought to be The Farage.
Richard Verney says “How the politicians allowed themselves to get so divorced from reality will be the question of the day.”
Yep. But unfortunately no World War style tribunals with similar powers. Nowadays we hand out lots of money to kick them into retirement and big pensions instead of jailing them. I would like to see all those who voted for the insane climate change act tried in a court of law with a life jail sentence as an option for sentencing.
The UK politicians simply read the front pages of the newspapers and voted accordingly. Only 5 of them voted against, the ones that voted for were totally irresponsible and obviously made no effort to double check what was on the front pages of those newspapers. Reckless irresponsibility.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10310624/Wind-farm-opponents-are-living-in-stone-age-Ed-Davey-claims.html
The wind farm advocates must be rattled if they sink to ad hom comments like this
So. After a generation of “climate scientists” have pissed billions of dollars against the wall, they are slowly coming to the conclusion that those of us, who have any common sense at all knew 25 years ago, that CAGW ia a total crock.
Is this the final final nail in the coffin of the global warming ‘scam’; the beginning of the end of the great global warming ‘conspiracy’; the end of the beginning of the good fight against the black helicopters, or just another normal day in WUWT-land?
The Mail on Sunday continues it’s series of double page spreads under the general heading’THE GREAT GREEN CON’ this Sunday.
In it David Rose is scathing about the new IPCC report. The MoS reports that on the Guardian website nasty posts had to be removed but one left in suggests Rose’s children murder him! He thinks self-defence will,in a few years, be a defence for killing their father. These people must be very afraid.
more UN “figures”. if govts implement a “don’t waste food” program, we could call the whole CAGW thing off & save a fortune! LOL.
A third of food is wasted, making it third-biggest carbon emitter, UN says
ROME, Sept 11 (Reuters) – The food the world wastes accounts for more greenhouse gas emissions than any country except for China and the United States, the United Nations said in a report on Wednesday…
http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/reutersnews/1.2564792
richardscourtney says:
September 14, 2013 at 2:33 am
Friends:
The AGW-scare was killed at the failed 2009 IPCC Conference in Copenhagen. I then wrote on WUWT and elsewhere
The AGW-scare is dead but it will continue to move as though alive in similar manner to a beheaded chicken running around a farmyard. It continues to provide the movements of life but it is already dead. And its deathly movements provide an especial problem…..
Bureaucracies are difficult to eradicate and impossible to nullify.
As the AGW-scare fades away those in ‘prime positions’ will attempt to establish rules and bureaucracies to impose those rules which provide immortality to their objectives. Guarding against those attempts now needs to be a serious activity.
I stand by everything I wrote in late 2009, and I consider the need to guard against “rules and bureaucracies” to be growing in importance……
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
In this we again agree. Diverting wealth and strangling wealth creation via idiotic red tape and ever expanding bureaucracies is what kills civilizations. Most exist for about 200 to 250 years. It seems we are not the only ones who notice this problem.
We should be smart enough by now to study history and learn from it.
The ‘cratz are counting on people to believe they are honestly correcting their own errors. This fosters trust. Meanwhile, they are heading ‘forward’ with regulations that enable their forceful control of virtually everything anybody ever does.
Imagine EPA as more of a door to door TSA.
Baronstone says: @ur momisugly September 14, 2013 at 5:05 am
What I find amazing is that there is any doubt that the planet is warming. You guys are saying that this proves that global warming is a hoax…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are not looking at the LONG view. The earth is cooling down from the Holocene optimum.
NH Summer Energy: The Leading Indicator (See graph)
Older evidence:
The real question is how close is the earth to the minimum NH Summer Energy need to kick it into the next glaciation. So far that answer is elusive.
And as if all that ice is not bad enough Carbon starvation in glacial trees recovered from the La Brea tar pits, southern California “….we found evidence that C3 primary productivity was greatly diminished in southern California during the last glacial period.”
Sure sounds like a darn good reason to produce as much CO2 as possible. (The trees will thank you.)
It is interesting that most people on WUWT think that the end of the IPCC is nigh, or within a couple of years. I don’t think so. The things we read are not published in the main stream press, like the NYT, Washington Post, etc. The big networks are not picking up on the story, and that includes Fox. No word from them of which I am aware.
We all comes to this gigantic echo-box of WUWT, and indulge in our own group think sessions with these AR5 leaks. In my opinion all this will not do the IPCC any harm, but it won’t help them, either. They will simply re-tool their message as they have done before, and we still have to be prepared to combat whatever their new marketing message. Fenton Communications or other left-wing communications outfit will continue to collect money on this job.
I am not trying to be a defeatist, just realistic. It ain’t over ’til its over.
Richard Verney says:
“One reason why models perform so badly, is that they are tuned to a bastardised thermometer record.”
These people essentially “borrowed” credibility from the social institution called (Science) in order to drive a marketing campaign for the benefit of another social institution (Social Engineering).
Science need to get its credibility back (with interest). The only way this can happen is if Science purges its institutions of Social Engineers and those involved in approving the “loan”.
Jon says:
September 14, 2013 at 2:25 am
The art of diplomacy is to say nice doggy until you find a stick that is big enough. They are just trying to wait it out hoping for the next El Niño?
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Your comment made me wonder if there can be a Grand La Nina, the counterpart to the Grand El Nino of 1998?
Subtleties of changes summarized
AR4 published in 2007 stated that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade.
AR4 said there is 90% confidence that AG emissions are responsible for most of the recent warming.
AR5 (leaked) says the true figure since 1951 has been only 0.12C per decade – a rate far below even the lowest computer prediction.
AR5 says there is 95% confidence that AG emissions are responsible for more than half of recent warming.
(from a commentator on another site – apologies for not noting details)
Mark says:
September 15, 2013 at 10:51 pm
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Perhaps AR6 will say there is 99% confidence that AG emissions are responsible for 10% of recent warming?