Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

Updated climate sensitivity estimates using aerosol-adjusted forcings and various ocean heat uptake estimates

Posted on May 24, 2013 by

Guest essay by Nic Lewis The Otto et al. paper has received a great deal of attention in recent days. While the paper’s estimate of transient climate response was low, the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity figure was actually slightly higher than … Continue reading →

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Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 68 Comments

Model Climate Sensitivity Calculated Directly From Model Results

Posted on May 21, 2013 by

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE: Steven Mosher pointed out that I have calculated the transient climate response (TCR) rather than the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). For the last half century, the ECS has been about 1.3 times the TCR … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 132 Comments

Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors

Posted on May 20, 2013 by

Yesterday, WUWT was honored to have a guest essay by co-author Nic Lewis on the new Otto et al paper that pegs Transient Climate Response (TCR) at 1.3°C along with Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity at 2.0°C. Lewis , who had previously published … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 44 Comments

New paper shows transient climate response less than 2°C

Posted on May 19, 2013 by

See also: Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors New energy-budget-derived estimates of climate sensitivity and transient response in Nature Geoscience Guest post by Nic Lewis Readers … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 186 Comments

New paper from Otto et al and Nic lewis shows transient climate sensitivity less than 2C

Posted on May 19, 2013 by

UPDATE: this post has been superseded by the new guest essay from Nic Lewis which you can see here: New paper shows transient climate response less than 2°C

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged | 1 Comment

Claim: How the IPCC arrived at climate sensitivity of about 3 deg C instead of 1.2 deg C.

Posted on May 18, 2013 by

UPDATE from Girma: “My title should have been ‘How to arrive at IPCC’s climate sensitivity estimate’ instead of the original” Guest essay by Girma Orssengo, PhD 1) IPCC’s 0.2 deg C/decade warming rate gives a change in temperature of dT … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 172 Comments

The beginning of the end: warmists in retreat on sea level rise, climate sensitivity

Posted on May 14, 2013 by

The forecast: It seems there’s less chance of gloom and doom these days. For sea level rise, now a maximum of about two feet by 2100. As for climate sensitivity, now for the first time ever, we are seeing mentions … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Sea level | Tagged , , , , , , | 86 Comments

A compilation of lower climate sensitivities, plus a new one

Posted on April 25, 2013 by

Still Another Low Climate Sensitivity Estimate Guest post By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 60 Comments

Some sense about sensitivity

Posted on April 24, 2013 by

Excerpts from The Register, coverage of the Nic Lewis paper. This graph below from Bishop Hill shows that it isn’t just one paper, but several now that show lower climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2. =============================================================== More and more … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 63 Comments

Dana Nuccitelli’s meany mode is like stinky cheese

Posted on April 22, 2013 by

Dana (Scooter) Nuccitelli, lead attack kid at the SkS Treehut gets schooled. Bishop Hill writes: Last week I ribbed Dana Nuccitelli and Gavin Schmidt over the former’s comparing the mean of the Aldrin paper to the mode of Lewis’s. Here’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Ridiculae | 65 Comments

Dehumidifying the Tropics

Posted on April 21, 2013 by

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I once had the good fortune to fly over an amazing spectacle, where I saw all of the various stages of emergent phenomena involving thunderstorms. It happened on a flight over the Coral Sea from … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 73 Comments

Efficacy Of Green House Gas Forcing Compared To Solar Forcing

Posted on April 21, 2013 by

Guest post by Bob Irvine SUMMARY This paper outlines an idea or hypothesis that should be discussed. This idea has the huge advantage of being supported by all the available data both from over the last thousand years or more, … Continue reading →

Posted in Citizen science, Climate sensitivity | 92 Comments

Numeracy in Climate Discussions – how long will it take to get a 6C rise in temperature?

Posted on April 18, 2013 by

The answer may surprise you Note: This essay is a result of an email discussion this morning, I asked Dr. Happer to condense and complete that discussion for the benefit of WUWT readers. This is one of the most enlightening … Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity | 238 Comments

Another paper finds lower climate sensitivity

Posted on April 18, 2013 by

Yesterday we talked about the new paper from Nic Lewis, now Troy Masters has a new paper in press at Climate Dynamics here. Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 62 Comments

An objective Bayesian estimate of climate sensitivity

Posted on April 16, 2013 by

Guest post by Nic Lewis Many readers will know that I have analysed the Forest et al., 2006, (F06) study in some depth. I’m pleased to report that my paper reanalysing F06 using an improved, objective Bayesian method was accepted … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 87 Comments

A Comparison Of The Earth’s Climate Sensitivity To Changes In The Nature Of The Initial Forcing

Posted on April 5, 2013 by

Guest post by Bob Irvine ABSTRACT The Earth’s feedback response to warming is independent of the nature of the forcing that caused that warming. The question I intend to examine is whether the nature of the forcing will have a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , | 114 Comments

A sea-change on climate sensitivity at The Economist

Posted on March 27, 2013 by

People send me stuff, today it was this “editors picks” from John Micklethwait, editor of The Economist. After years of being pro-warming, I was shocked to see this headline as a “pick”. It seems a change in editorial position may … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, media | Tagged , , , , , , | 103 Comments

The Revkin-Gavin debate on lower climate sensitivity

Posted on February 4, 2013 by

Lower climate sensitivity is getting some mainstream discussion. Last week at WUWT, we had this story: BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC which is now the … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 123 Comments

The yearly lukewarm report

Posted on February 4, 2013 by

UPDATE: Andrew Revkin has a similar story today, see below. Robert Bradley, who runs Master Resource, a blog about energy and climate, gave me unsolicited permission to reprint this article to increase its reach, and I’m happy to do so. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC

Posted on February 1, 2013 by

UPDATE: Annan now suggests the IPCC “is in a bit of a pickle”, see below. UPDATE2: Title has been changed to reflect Annan’s new essay, suggesting lying for political purposes inside the IPCC. Also added some updates about Aldrin et … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , | 452 Comments