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Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

Guest essay by Nicholas Lewis Summary – Different agents may have effects on global temperature (GMST) different to those which would be expected simply by reference to the radiative forcing they exert. This difference is encapsulated in the term “forcing efficacy”. In their recent paper, Marvel et al. estimate efficacies for various forcings from climate simulations…

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Study from Marvel and Schmidt: Examination of Earth’s recent history key to predicting global temperatures

From NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER Estimates of future global temperatures based on recent observations must account for the differing characteristics of each important driver of recent climate change, according to a new NASA study published Dec. 14 in the journal Nature Climate Change. To quantify climate change, researchers need to know the Transient Climate Response (TCR)…

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Antarctic Refrigerator Effect, Climate Sensitivity & Déformation professionnelle: Lessons from Past Climate Change – Part 2

Guest essay by Jim Steele Reference link: Déformation professionnelle Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism For the past 55 million years the global surface temperature has declined by more than 10°C from a “hot house” condition into an “ice house”…

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Wrong Again, Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach One of the best parts of new tools is new discoveries. So the tools to calculate the heat constants of the ocean and land as described in my last post, Lags and Leads, reveal unknown things to me. A while back I wrote a post called “Wrong Again”, about a crucial…

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Lags and Leads

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about thermal lags in the climate system. Everyone is familiar with thermal lag in everyday life. When you put a cast-iron pan on the stove flame, it doesn’t heat up instantly. Instead, the warming process starts instantly, but it takes some amount of time to actually up…

Graphic from Jonathan Koomey via slideshare

2°C or not 2°C–that is the question

This note by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley uses methods and data exclusively from mainstream climate science to constrain the interval of 21st-century global warming. In 2009 the Copenhagen climate summit asserted, on little evidence, that global warming of 2 C° compared with pre-industrial temperature [equivalent to 1.1 C° above today] would be dangerous. The…

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I only ask because I want to know

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I propose to raise a question about the Earth’s energy budget that has perplexed me for some years. Since further evidence in relation to my long-standing question is to hand, it is worth asking for answers from the expert community at WUWT. A.E. Housman, in his immortal parody of the…