Category Archives: Climate sensitivity

New paper from Nic Lewis on climate sensitivity corrects ‘prior’ errors in an IPCC AR4 reference

Nic Lewis has a new post at Climate Audit that deals with some assumptions that went into IPCC AR4’s use of a uniform prior for estimating climate sensitivity. He has shown it to be faulty, to the point that would … Continue reading

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Posted in Bad science, Climate sensitivity, IPCC | 36 Comments

New paper finds transient climate sensitivity to doubling of CO2 is about 1°C

A new paper published in Ecological Modelling finds climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 concentrations is significantly lower than estimates from the IPCC and climate models which “utilize uncertain historical data and make various assumptions about forcings.” The author instead uses … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity | 216 Comments

Ross McKitrick’s presentation to FOS

The Friends of Science 11th annual luncheon was on May 13, 2014, featuring Dr. Ross McKitrick, at the Metropolitan Conference Centre, Calgary, Alberta. In it he says: “Climate models appear to overstate the effects of greenhouse gases.  This presentation will … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Hiatus in Global Warming, Modeling, Presentations | 41 Comments

Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response

Guest essay by Marcel Crok, Climate Dialogue Climate sensitivity is at the heart of the scientific debate on anthropogenic climate change. In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5) the different lines of evidence were combined to conclude that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 45 Comments

New paper finds transient climate sensitivity to CO2 is ~35% less than IPCC claims

From The Hockey Schtick: A paper under discussion for Earth System Dynamics finds the transient climate response [TCR] to CO2 is 1.3°C per doubling of CO2 levels, about 35% less than claimed by the IPCC mean estimate and the same … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 54 Comments

New paper finds climate sensitivity to CO2 is lower than previously believed, strong natural variability in Southern Hemisphere

(NOTE: I’m traveling today, and thus I’m posting this article from The Hockey Schtick as it deserves attention and discussion. At 10AM EDT, an announcement about a new skeptic publication in Nature Climate Change  will follow this article – Anthony) … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 51 Comments

Ridley: IPCC & OECD reports are telling us clear as a bell that we cannot ruin the climate with CO2 unless we have a population explosion

Matt Ridley: The Richer We Get, The Greener We’ll Become The world’s climate change experts are now saying that strong growth doesn’t hurt the environment, it protects it Matt Ridley, The Times In the past 50 years, world per capita … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, Economy-health | 82 Comments

Can we deduce climate sensitivity from temperature?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Central to Professor Lovejoy’s paper attempting to determine climate sensitivity from recent temperature trends is the notion that in any 125-year period uninfluenced by anthropogenic forcings there is only a 10% probability of a global … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 100 Comments

When will climate feedbacks fully function? Not for millennia

 Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brencheley The splendidly-titled Alberto Zaragoza Comendador, commenting on my recent posting taking apart Mr. Mann’s latest fantasia in Scientific American, was startled by my statement that only half of equilibrium global warming would emerge … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, feedbacks | 156 Comments

The Shindell climate sensitivity paper: another ‘GISS miss’

There was lots of breathless anticipation last week over the Drew Shindell paper on climate sensitivity, which was embargoed until 1800GMT on Sunday (see the embargoed PR from Nature here), but some people like Climate Nexus couldn’t help themselves and … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, NASA GISS | Tagged , , | 87 Comments

More reax to Lewis and Crok: What the IPCC Knew But Didn’t Tell Us

Climate Insensitivity: What the IPCC Knew But Didn’t Tell Us By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger In a remarkable example of scientific malfeasance, it has become apparent that the IPCC knew a lot more than it revealed … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC, Lewis and Crok | 117 Comments

Notes on the reax to Lewis and Crok, along with another paper looking at climate model output versus data

While the reactions to Lewis and Crok rage, from intellectually lazy trolling at Dr. Judith Curry’s shop by a trio of commenters using the “nyah, nyah, it’s not peer reviewed!” method, (she now has a technical thread to filter such antics) … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Lewis and Crok, Modeling | 29 Comments

The Lewis and Crok exposition – Climate less sensitive to Carbon Dioxide than most models suggest

Full papers plus additional comments from co-author Nic Lewis follow. I have added some relevant diagrams and tables from the report, plus reproduced the foreword by Dr. Judith Curry as well as updated the summary Equilibrium Climate Response Graph originally … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 106 Comments

More Evidence for a Low Climate Sensitivity

By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger We have two new entries to the long (and growing) list of papers appearing the in recent scientific literature that argue that the earth’s climate sensitivity—the ultimate rise in the earth’s … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 92 Comments

Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Catastrophic Global Warming Potential Based on the Historical Data Record

This exercise in data analysis pins down a value of 1.8C for ECS. Guest essay by Jeff L. Introduction: If the global climate debate between skeptics and alarmists were cooked down to one topic, it would be Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 211 Comments

Josh on the certainty of climate sensitivity

Josh writes: Are we now 95% certain? Yes, we are! Hooray! Yesterday we heard from UK climate science community about their work on AR5. The event was called “Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis. The Working Group 1 … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Humor, Satire | 35 Comments

Chicken al la still not a king

The royal prince in waiting of Britain labels climate skeptics as “headless chickens”. From The Telegraph: Prince Charles has criticised climate change deniers, describing them as the “headless chicken brigade” during an awards ceremony recognising a leading young green entrepreneur. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, Climate ugliness | Tagged , , | 317 Comments

NASA revises Earth’s Radiation Budget, diminishing some of Trenberth’s claims in the process

From the “settled science” department comes this new revision of Earth’s entire radiation budget. Many WUWT readers can recall seeing this radiation budget graphic from Kenneth Trenberth in 2009: Source: Trenberth et al. 2009 http://echorock.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Staff/Fasullo/my_pubs/Trenberth2009etalBAMS.pdf That figure in a slightly … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Climate News, Climate sensitivity, Earth, IPCC | 211 Comments

CERES Satellite Data and Climate Sensitivity

Guest essay by Ken Gregory See abstract and PDF version here. The determination of the global warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), called the climate sensitivity, is the most important parameter in climate science. The Intergovernmental … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | 133 Comments

CO2 and CERES

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the bureaucratic agency which appropriated the role of arbiter of things climatic, has advanced a theory for the lack of warming since the turn of the century, viz: The … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 199 Comments

Global Warming is REAL but NOT a Big DEAL

Guest essay by Dr. Ira Glickstein We’ve reached a turning point where it is hard for any Global Warming Alarmist to claim (with a straight face) that the world as we know it is about to end in the coming … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Global warming, Ira | Tagged | 324 Comments

Climate Craziness of the Week: only the ‘cooler’ models are wrong – the rest say 4ºC of warming by 2100

From the University of New South Wales and Dr. Steven Sherwood: “Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect,” said Sherwood. “But what we are finding … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Craziness of the Week, Climate sensitivity, clouds | Tagged , , , , , , | 168 Comments

The Fatal Lure of Assumed Linearity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [note new Update at the end, and new Figs. 4-6] In climate science, linearity is the order of the day. The global climate models are all based around the idea that in the long run, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 111 Comments

Mechanical Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [NOTE the update at the end of the post.] I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 90 Comments

Study: lack of cloud physics biased climate models high

The Hockey Schtick brings this to our attention. It seems Dr. Roy Spencer was prescient with his observation: “The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, clouds, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 102 Comments

The ‘worse than we thought’ model

From ETH Zurich: Underestimated future climate change? 25.11.2013 | Fabio Bergamin New model calculations by ETH researcher Thomas Frölicher show that global warming may continue after a stoppage of CO 2 emissions. We cannot rule out the possibility that climate … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 108 Comments

New study: ‘…climate system is only about half as sensitive to increasing CO2 as previously believed’

Warming since 1950s partly caused by El Niño HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (Nov. 11, 2013) – A natural shift to stronger warm El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean might be responsible for a substantial portion of the global warming recorded during … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 191 Comments

A Sea Change for Climate Science?

By David Stockwell writing in Quadrant Online As CO2 climate models falter and even the IPCC backs off its estimates, it just may be that a radical shift in thinking is looming. Wouldn’t it be funny if it was the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 127 Comments

Chylek et al 2013 shows a linkage between US Southwest climate and AMO/PDO cycles

This paper suggests that the CMIP5 models’ (which IPCC relies upon) predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly overestimated by about a factor of two. Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate sensitivity, PDO | Tagged , , | 28 Comments

The Cloud Radiative Effect, Take Two

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, in my last post I took a first cut at figuring the cloud radiative “feedback” from the CERES dataset. However, an alert commenter pointed out that I hadn’t controlled for the changes in solar … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , | 80 Comments

The Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE)

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE: An alert commenter, Ken Gregory, has pointed out that in addition to the temperature affecting the CRE, it is also affected by the changing solar radiation. He is correct that I did not control … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 172 Comments

Dr. Kiehl’s Paradox

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2007, in a paper published in GRL entitled “Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity” Jeffrey Kiehl noted a curious paradox. All of the various different climate models operated by different groups … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 124 Comments

50:1 should now be 100:1

Low ECS doubles the cost:benefit shortfall Guest essay by Barry Brill Topher Fields’ excellent documentary video http://topher.com.au/50-to-1-video-project/ explains that the overall costs of any global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be at least 50 times greater than its … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 44 Comments

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach David Rose has posted this , from the unreleased IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): ‘ECS is likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C… The lower limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 317 Comments

BREAKING: IPCC AR5 report to dial back climate sensitivity

Update: the IPCC edifice is crumbling, see The state of climate science: ‘fluxed up’ See also Willis’ article One Step Forward, Two Steps Back, and Lomborg: climate models are running way too hot This post will be a sticky for awhile, new posts … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , | 230 Comments