From the University of Melbourne, where being angry about “weather is not climate” isn’t just a science, it’s a way of life:
Human influences through global warming are likely to have played a role in Australia’s recent “angry” hot summer, the hottest in Australia’s observational record, new research has found.
The research led by the University of Melbourne, has shown that global warming increased the chances of Australians experiencing record hot summers such as the summer of 2013, by more than five times.
Lead author, Dr Sophie Lewis from the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science said the study showed it was possible to say with more than 90 per cent confidence, that human influences on the atmosphere dramatically increased the likelihood of the extreme summer of 2013.
“Our research has shown that due to greenhouse gas emissions, these types of extreme summers will become even more frequent and more severe in the future,” she said.
The study Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013 has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
The study used climate observations and more than 90 climate model simulations of summer temperatures in Australia over the past 100 years.
Professor David Karoly, a co-author on the paper said the observations, coupled with a suite of climate model runs comparing human and natural influences in parallel experiments, indicated we have experienced a very unusual summer at a time when it was not expected.
“This extreme summer is not only remarkable for its record-breaking nature but also because it occurred at a time of weak La Niña to neutral conditions, which generally produce cooler summers,” he said.
“Importantly, our research shows the natural variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation is unlikely to explain the recent record temperatures.”
This analysis of the causes of the record 2013 Australian summer is one of the fastest ever performed worldwide for a significant climate event.
This fast-response analysis was made possible because data from many existing climate models and observations were made available through Centre of Excellence collaborations with CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and the National Computational Infrastructure in Australia.
“The new data resource means scientists are able to work on understanding and addressing the problems of extreme climate events sooner,” Professor Karoly said.
The researchers are now turning their attention to other recent extreme climate events.
[UPDATE]: I’m sure Anthony won’t mind if I offer a bit of perspective on the thoroughness of the Australian researchers. This is what the RSS and the MSU satellite records for the lower troposphere have to say about Australia:
Figure U1. Austral summer temperatures. Note that the 2012 summer in the Southern Hemisphere runs from December 2012 to February 2013.
The data is from that marvelous resource, KNMI. Go there, and under “Select a field”, click on “Monthly Observations”. Scroll down to “Lower Troposphere”, and click on either the RSS dataset or the MSU dataset.
When the page comes up, specify the bounding box around Australia (-38 to -11° latitude, 113 to 153° longitude. Click the land only check box, and tell it to generate the data series.
In this case, both satellite datasets agree that there was nothing at all unusual about the 2012 summer. The researchers should at least have noted that fact … assuming that they noticed that fact.
w.
jimmi_the_dalek says: June 27, 2013 at 8:54 pm
> The ‘Hot Summer of 2013′ was really just a hot 10 days in January. However for that period it really was much hotter than normal over much of Eastern NSW reaching 45C in Sydney. Whether that was just a larger than usual fluctuation, or a sign of something to come, is debatable.
The temperature measurements derived from Sydney were measured at a location well known for UHI effects … Jo Nova can provide you with the specific details if you’re interested.
Robert of Ottawa asks: “I am sorry, I am obviously loosing contact with the English language. Is “angry” hot, cold, wet or dry, or all four?”.
Any or all of the above if you are a CAGW climate scientist Robert.
this is the Opposition Climate Change Minister in Australia declaring they will not only not have a carbon tax, they will not have an ETS or any price on carbon dioxide. hope they mean it, cos it’s never been clear:
VIDEO: 28 June: Brisbane Times: Coalition: ETS is still a tax (08:02)
Greg Hunt, shadow environment minister, says any changes to the carbon tax under Rudd will still hit business hard and that carbon pricing has got to go.
http://media.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national-times/coalition-ets-is-still-a-tax-4527202.html
should have added the Opposition first needs to win the forthcoming Federal Election!
“pat says:
June 27, 2013 at 9:56 pm”
The Opposition have a “direct action” plan as opposed to a tax or ETS. So not much different really. The Opposition need to have the courage to have a “do nothing option”, but I don’t see that ever happening.
How many ways can I say BS to the stupid Aussie claim of an “angry” summer? I’m an Aussie, here in Australia, so I can call it a stupid Aussie claim – yes, and you guys can, too, because it is.
As for how many ways I can call it BS – once will have to do. Just know my mind is reeling with a whole teem of expletives and I don’t need a thesaurus!
The BOM in Aus used only 104 w/stations to gather that data. Many stations which recorded hot temps in Jan 1939 have been eliminated – so they’re comparing apples to oranges.
The data for the new ACORN stations has generally been adjusted downwards for earlier temps so it’s no wonder they can claim a ‘record’. Check Bourke’s raw data in Jan 39 with the adjusted ACORN data to see what they’re up to.
Bourke had 17 days in a row of +40C; not any more.
Streedcred,
I was in Sydney and it is undoubtable that it was very very hot. A typical temperature for the coastal suburbs of Sydney in summer is a pleasant 25C. If it gets to 35C people say it is hot. On some days in this January it was way beyond that. I particularly remember being it the city and noticing that all the digital thermometers on buildings were reading 45C. Now, even allowing for siting problems and a degree or two of UHI, that is far beyond the average. Of course, as I have already said, the cause is not established. It could just be an unusually large random fluctuation. But hot it most definitely was. February however was cooler than average.
NICK STOKES,
You say:
I give BOM Oz surface data above at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/27/claim-humans-play-role-in-australias-angry-hot-summer/#comment-1348942
that perhaps you may be uncomfortable with, but perhaps you can investigate and clarify it for us?
I watched the weather reports every night during that period and there were two blocking highs in succession which parked over the ocean east of the continent. The anti-clockwise flow around these highs drew hot air from the central Australian desert
(cont) which flowed down to the heavilly populated south east including Melbourne University. It is beyond my comprehension that these people did not see this.
Ian George says: June 27, 2013 at 10:32 pm
“Bourke had 17 days in a row of +40C; not any more.”
Really? In Jan 2013, the whole of January averaged 40.6°C. Raw data. That’s 4.3°C more than usual.
That’s why it was called an angry summer. Hot places got a whole lot hotter.
Bob F-J “perhaps you can investigate and clarify it for us?”
Not sure what needs clarifying. Your graph verifies what I said above. Australia summer 2013 1.44°C above average – that’s 0.21°C hotter than previous hottest. Yes, individual states have had hotter summers than 2013, but this was the combined effect of the heat over the whole country.
I live in New Zealand (not far from Oz) and our Wellington summer was not only the hottest I can remember it was the longest I can recall in my 52 years. Christmas day in Wellington was unbearably hot.
Nick, that ground temperatures would be superhot is not a surprise, quoting from Leroux Dynamic Analysis of Weather and Climate, Springer 2010, section 3.5, page 70:
“Weather associated with agglutinations of MPHs is controlled by raised pressure and anticyclonic stability, which bring heat, drought and pollution. The higher the pressure, the greater the molecular conduction and infrared absorption; air cannot rise and, at near-ground levels, becomes overheated (for the same quantity of solar energy received), especially when winds are light or non-existent. The heat brings about a marked diminution in relative humidity, i.e. the air becomes very dry, and more so if water vapour does not penetrate the anticyclonic area; the natural greenhouse effect, principally associated with water vapour, is considerably reduced, allowing more energy to reach the ground during the daytime. The absence of clouds also offers optimal insolation. So there are wide temperature contrasts (with much increased diurnal thermal amplitude), and the days become abnormally hot, or ‘spring-like’ in winter. Nights are cold, with frequent frosts and radiation fogs. In summer, the heat builds up to gradually to create what are traditionally known as ‘dog days’, especially in urban areas which are less ‘ventilated’, hotter, dryer and polluted: emissive gases are an aggravating factor. At the same time, the anticyclonic character limited to the lower layers and the absence of horizontal and vertical air movements concentrate pollution near the ground (below an inversion layer at about 1 000 metres), while the strong insolation accelerates photodissociation (the production of ozone, encouraging the temperature to rise in the lower layers). Precipitation is hindered, or even halted, and drought results in winter as in summer.”
Permanence of high pressure agglutinations fed by powerful anticyclones of dense polar air hardly makes a case for a warming world…
It is a sorry state of affairs where model calculations are described as “experiments”. This from a Professor and a Phd. Shameful spin.
Simon says: June 27, 2013 at 11:21 pm
>I live in New Zealand (not far from Oz) and our Wellington summer was not only the hottest I can remember it was the longest I can recall in my 52 years. Christmas day in Wellington was unbearably hot.
…
I believe that you’re having record snowfalls at the moment … so heavy that it’s collapsing the roofs of farm buildings.
jimmi_the_dalek says: June 27, 2013 at 10:35 pm
…
Not quibbling that it was hot … Sydney summers are generally hot like Melbourne when the N’Westerlies blow in from the interior … in this case there was a blocking high pressure system in the north which also delayed the Monsoon until late January.
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/03/hottest-summer-record-in-australia-not-even-close-says-uah-satellite-data/
Streetcred says: I believe that you’re having record snowfalls at the moment … so heavy that it’s collapsing the roofs of farm buildings.
Yes we are and at the same time having record breaking wind storms. I tell you the weather has been crazy here. Droughts through summer and now record rainfalls in Nelson. One extreme to the other. Hell we had snow here in Wellington a couple of years ago. Unheard of.
Quote: “Human influences through global warming are likely to have played a role in Australia’s recent “angry” hot summer, the hottest in Australia’s observational record, new research has found.”
Quoi? I thought it’s winter down south, actually? Were all the geography-lessons I attended when I was a kid in vain?
mogamboguru says: “Quoi? I thought it’s winter down south, actually? Were all the geography-lessons I attended when I was a kid in vain?”
Ha ha. You are a funny guy!! At least I hope you are being funny.
NICK STOKES,
Wow! Congratulations Nick for your thoughtful 27 minutes of deep cogitation (at most) in responding to two separate comments!
My simpleton comment was that according to the BOM, ALL of the Oz States and Territories each individually showed that they were ALL relatively cool last summer. So in your remarkably rapid divided response, did you have time to examine all of the sixteen BOM histograms for mean and max summer T’s?
Bob Fernley-Jones says: June 28, 2013 at 1:00 am
“So in your remarkably rapid divided response, did you have time to examine all of the sixteen BOM histograms for mean and max summer T’s?”
I didn’t have to, and they aren’t histograms, they are time series. The information is well summarised in a table BoM report on the summer that I linked above – each state’s anomaly and ranking. And exactly as I said, the states did not individually set records, but since they were all well above average, for the country it was a record.
What’s your point anyway? Do you think they got the arithmetic wrong? What’s your “correct” answer? The numbers are there.
Philip Bradley says:
June 27, 2013 at 8:25 pm
//////////////////////
Now that you have pointed it out, I do recall some comment being made on paint.
It goes to show how some subtle issue 9although if you were to stop and think about issues, I suspect most people would cite screen maintenance as a potential issue), can have an effect, may be even a significant effect since we are meant to be getting alarmed at just fractions of a degree changes. It also goes to reinforce that weather stations are not laboratory controlled experiments and it reinforces the view that all types of margins of errors can creep in, especially when one is over straining the effectiveness of the system (in this case weather stations set up for general meteorological info0 and/or the robustness of the data produced.
“Simon says:
June 28, 2013 at 12:40 am
Yes we are and at the same time having record breaking wind storms.”
Having lived in Wellington myself, this is what the MSM would have you believe. Unfortunately for alarmists and the MSM, history suggests that, although it was an extreme event, it wasn’t a record breaker. 10th April 1968 the storm had wind speeds of over 100 knots at the harbour entrance.
Patrick says: Actually the peak wind gust last Thursday was 200Km’s an hour (108 knots) at Mt Kaukau, and that exceeded anything the Wahine storm had to throw at us… but lets not argue over a few Kmph’s. The point I was making is we have had an amazing run of extremes in the last two years. Drought, floods, snow, highest ever temps. It really has been one crazy ride.