From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert
More hurricane surges in the future
By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
10 times as many ‘Katrinas’
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
For more information please contact:
Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
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I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:
Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg
…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:
The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.
Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.
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Sort of a cool pic though, even if it is fake.
Just sayin.
It’s a fake.
See this site for the source of the waves. http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/giant%20wave
Maybe they use the same people who photoshop for Iran.
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/in-an-iranian-image-a-missile-too-many/
Just to provide some scale, for folks who may never have had the opportunity to physically visit Liberty Island: The wave appears to reach at least as high as the top of the pedestal. That’s roughly 50m above the “normal” water level.
The highest wave recorded in New York Harbor occurred during the recent Hurricane Sandy, and was about 10 meters in height.
The picture is a fake. A photo of just the wave is shown here. It’s dated May 28, 2011 – http://kitesurfbikerambling.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/some-photos-defy-belief/
what the sam hell is an extreme storm surge?…………
Looks like regular old storm surges will remain the same….but extreme storm surges will increase
Must be like NOAA…..redefine what extreme is….and naming every two clouds that get within sight of each other
What does “Photoshop tag found” mean? Sounds to me as though they found evidence it was photoshopped, But the site provides no readme or other explanation.
Alarmists must use “alarming” pictures…. Faked temp reconstructions must have faked pictures to go along with them… 😉
Wasn’t Mann’s hockey stick accompanied by the faked polar bear on the ice floe or was that a different article?
That image is from one of the apocalypse moves I cant remember which one Deep Impact or 2012 or Armageddon or something but I know I have seen that before. Could have been on e of the History/Discover channel “specials” about mega tsunami or an impact or “super” volcano events.
What causes the frequency and magnitude of storms on Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune if 0.04% of CO2 causes an increase in the frequency and magnitude of storms here on Earth?
When the media use this style of Armageddon imagery to make their point it goes to show how weak their main argument was to begin with.
sadbutmadlad says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
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they did a really bad job of smudging out the body boarders too…..should have left them in…..that would have been hysterical
They use models to predict climate, then they use the output of those models to predict storm strength, then they use the output of those models to predict storm surge.
Criminey, it really is models all the way down.
sadbutmadlad says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
The picture is a fake. A photo of just the wave is shown here. It’s dated May 28, 2011 – http://kitesurfbikerambling.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/some-photos-defy-belief/
Nice! FAKE!!!!
Boston12GS says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:16 pm
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Looks to me like the wave tops are a good 10 to 20 meters above the top of the pedastal.
Come one, “it appears fake”? Was there any doubt? I think that’s the photographic equivalent of hyperbole. Yes, I agree, with the caption supplied its completely ridiculous and they deserve to be pilloried. Weren’t there enough actual pictures of damage from Sandy?
This site investigates the pskiller site, and is not especially fond of it. (Even mentions Wattsupwiththat in connection with an earlier image.)
http://www.hackerfactor.com/blog/index.php?/archives/458-Photoshop-Manipulations.html
The storm surge of every hurricane / tropical cyclone / typhoon is extreme. The fact that the frequency of these storms has declined as the planet warmed completely negates the results of this model.
I call bullshit!
“By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer.”
So the climate was warmer in the past. If it was warmer in the past without our CO2 input then… Oh what the hell all of you know the questions.
Reminds me of the Discovery channel bit on mega-tsunamis. If the shoulder of one of the volcanoes in the Canary islands (I’ve forgotten which one) were to slide catastrophically into the ocean, you might get something like this. Such slides have been documented in the Hawaiian Island chain, but from what I’ve read, the geology in the Canaries is only conducive to a more gradual slide with much more muted consequences.
a wave that goes halfway up the Statue of Liberty, and it *might* be photoshopped? ROFL!
That’s like showing a wave that’s washing cars off the Golden Gate Bridge.
It’s like that movie that had a giant octopus picking people out of the streets of SF and eating them. Well, okay, it’s not as cool as that was.
Latitude says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
what the sam hell is an extreme storm surge?…………
Looks like regular old storm surges will remain the same….but extreme storm surges will increase
Must be like NOAA…..redefine what extreme is….and naming every two clouds that get within sight of each other
————————————————————————————————————————
Apparently, it becomes extreme if you put your hat on backward, yell a lot, and wear ‘shades’
“Aaaaah … basmati”
As to the study, they took two bad models then averaged them together. Of course, storm surge is so much more than storm strength. It is also bathymetry and storm speed and direction. But why bother with details when you can put everything in a blender and make margaritas.
Appears to be photoshopped?
Right.
I just love that “Katrina’s per decade” Y-Axis. I don’t think anyone in 1975 was saying “Holy crap, I just went through 1/3 of a Katrina!”
That photo looks kind of like a scene from “Deep Impact”.
Gee, I thought the “Katrinas per decade” was a clever new unit of alarm-i-ness
Perhaps volcanic aerosols will now be quantified in “micro-Krakatoas per cubic meter”
[heh-heh]
This paper is for April 1, right?
Let’s consider the Atlantic basin. Let’s say that in an average year there are 10 named storms (1950-2000 ave = 9.6). To get a 10-fold increase in Katrina’s there would have to be an average of 100 named storms in a season, or in a peak season, 280 named storms (record high activity to date = 28). That is more than one named storm would have to form every other day during the season, on average, or nearly two every day in a record season.
It ain’t gonna happen. Ever.
Good April Fools. Ha ha.