Forecasts of the Boston Blizzard

I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives a reverse visual impression (IMHO) to what the numbers say.

StormTotalSnowFcst[1]

The probability map color scheme makes more visual sense to me:

ProbSnow12[1]

This is from the NWS Facebook Page:

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Boston_blizzard_noreaster

…MAJOR Blizzard Expected for Boston and New York City…

Total accumulations of 18 to 24 inches are expected for southeast Maine, eastern and southeast Massachusetts (including the Boston metro area), northern Connecticut and all of Rhode Island. Further south across eastern New York to Northern New Jersey, total accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected, including the New York City metro and Long Island. Light snow will develop by Friday morning, becoming heavy late in the day into the evening commute. The heaviest snowfall, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, will fall Friday night into Saturday. North-northeast winds gusting up to 60 mph will lead to blizzard and white-out conditions, creating life-threatening travel conditions. Damage to trees and structures with scattered power outages are anticipated.

In addition, moderate to major coastal flooding is expected from Portland, Maine to the east facing coastline of Massachusetts.

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Take a look at HPC’s Day 1-2 QPF. Although all eyes are on New England with the impending major winter storm, the East Coast is expected to get a good amount of rainfall over the next day or two. To see more information about this, visit our QPF page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-2.shtml

Boston_Blizzard_QPF

And for more information on the winter storm to affect New England, please visit the local Weather Forecast Office’s websites and our winter weather page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

==============================================================

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO

DROP AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAZ005>007-012>023-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-090100-

/O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130209T1800Z/

CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-

SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-

SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-

WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-

EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-

SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-

BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...

GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...

CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...

FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...

PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...FOSTER...

SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...

NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND

1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE

  ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES...

  QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING NEAR 60 MPH.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 FEET.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST OF SNOW ANTICIPATED BY THE

  EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE

  I-95 CORRIDOR.

* IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL

  WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND WINDS

  GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE DAMAGE TO TREES

  AND STRUCTURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT

GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME

LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED

TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

$$

==============================================================

Now here’s some private forecasts from WeatherBell/Dr. Ryan Maue, first a radar projection:

Boston_Blizzard_NAM_Weatherbell

And accumulation from the Canadian RGEM model:

Boston_Blizzard_WeatherBell_accum

 

 

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len

according to the 4 major channels(whdh(ch7),wcvb(ch5),wbz(ch4) and fox whatever their number is) in my area that candadian map is showing the low end of what they are forecasting, looks like boston area- if i am reading that map right is only getting ~11-13″ while the local guys are saying most likely in the 18-24+” range with areas over 30″
i got my snowblower set. going to gohome from work in an hr or so and then have a fun weekend shoveling out with the kids.

That graphic from the NWS FaceBook page is one of the more conservative maps I’ve seen.
I like the weather coverage at NECN, in part because they cover all of New England. Their maps are at http://www.necn.com/02/08/13/bMatt-Noyes-bThursday-late-evening-final/landing_weathernewengland.html?blockID=829737&feedID=6240 , a good video segment (6 minutes) is at http://www.necn.com/weather . It describes a few things that are in the NWS statements and forecasts, but they point out the importance of the items too. Coastal flooding and erosion will be important.
I’m expecting 1- 2 feet of fairly fluffy snow and hopefully no power outage from the wind.

john

Anthony, I’m near Marshfield Ma., about 5 miles away from the ocean as the crow flies. Will let you know what I end up with. Inland should get more fluffy snow but I expect a wet heavy 10 inches or so. (Ho Hum). Inland will get more light stuff and we will see how it all adds up.
In the meantime the Governor has issued executive orders that everyone except non-essential personnel are allowed on roads and that power companies WILL NOT restore power until after the storm.
BTW, I have one of your stories ready to fly at another site,
BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC
I will add the WWF funding bombshell in the comments when published. Thanks for all you do.
john from DB.

PeterB in Indianapolis

I have seen one model forecasting 42 inches for the northern suburbs of Boston…
I hope no one gets THAT much snow… 3.5 feet (1.08 meters or so) with 50+ mph wind gusts would NOT be good.

herkimer

This may indeed be a significant or major blizzard but lets also remember the blizzard of March 12-15,1993 , which set air pressure readings as low as a category 3 hurricane . It covered 26 states along the entire eastern half of US and the eastern half of Canada. 270 people were killed due to the blizzard . Snow falls hit as high as 56 inches in Tennese mts. Pittburgh got 25 inches , Syracuse 43 inches. Winds in Nova Scotia reached 131 miles per hour . One can see that these kind of storms have happened throughout our history and have little to do with global warming or climate change due to global warming . They are part of the natural climate change pattern that happens now and then . There may have been even worse ones back in 1740/1741 and 1748/1749

Paul Westhaver

Fantastic ensemble of graphics. Thank-you Anthony.
I am underneath that, so I especially thank-you.

SMC

Huh. I keep forgetting the north east corridor around New York is the center of the world.

steveninbrooklyn

Here in Brooklyn, I suspect we will not even get a foot. Snow amounts are incredible ripe for exaggeration: they yield high media ratings, fundingl; and when The Horrible doesn’t acutally happen, a majority of people feel relief rather than deceived. Well, hope I’m wrong, and NYC gets lots of snow.

HaroldW

As someone who lives in the “24+ in” region of the NWS, but in the 12-inch region of the RGEM map, I vote for the RGEM result.

R. Shearer

Blowing snow in Maine is truly unprecedented and obviously worse than we thought due to global warming, er climate change.

HaroldW

You might also want to take snapshots of the GFS & NAM forecasts at http://www.weatherstreet.com/nam-gfs-48hr-precip-forecast.htm.
NAM predicts a lot more snow inland; GFS puts the worst precipation out to sea.

Chris R.

Models I’ve seen show a pretty sharp snow gradient–for example, Newark airport
could well get 6” less snow than La Guardia airport, a mere 20 miles away.

MarkB

I’m just outside the southern border of Boston. The flakes are small, but right now they’re blowing almost horizontally from northeast to southwest – classic nor’easter. I’ve only shoveled once this year – this will be a bitch. My baby boomer bones are too old for this.

It’s George Bush’s Fault!

Big D in TX

SMC says:
February 8, 2013 at 11:23 am
Huh. I keep forgetting the north east corridor around New York is the center of the world.
*************************************
HA!

Skiphil

Here is a completely different pattern, but it might be worth considering and comparing how alarmists would present the March 1956 blizzards in New England, “worst March blizzards in a century” —
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/084/mwr-084-03-0116.pdf
Because if this were to happen now there would be those who would rush to attribute it to “climate change” and “climate weirding”…. Not too much basis for saying that about 1956….

Myron Mesecke

Snow up there and tomorrow I will be attending Skywarn training for Bell county Texas. We have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night. It was 80 degrees yesterday.

Steve Keohane

Sounds like a return to the early 60s I remember in Topsfield, Mass., 22 miles north of Boston. On more than one occasion we could jump from our roof, into five to six-foot drifts. It meant a lot of shoveling to clear the drive. Not to mention the lengths of tunnels and rooms we constructed to play in, hidden beneath the pristine surface.

Goode 'nuff

The Beagle that runs me and I are in Mount Pocono. Looked like it was really going to something but lost it’s mo.

tgmccoy

Stay safe folks, haven’t had any thing like that here in NE Oregon-Yet
though it is a bit late….
Logan is going to be a mess along with Kennedy and La Guardia.
Glad I’m not flying to Boston or New York…

Gary

I’ll let you know the totals from the southern RI coast. It’s only about 3 inches at 3:30 pm EST but the worst is yet to come. So far it’s behind the blizzard of ’78.

EW3

Getting in before we lose power here – about 20 miles ENE of Boston in the 24+ zone.
The snow may get the headlines, but the predicted winds are down right worrisome. Almost 24 hours straight of greater then 20 MPH winds.

aharris

Sometimes, I feel like “ZOMG Weather” like this is an entirely isolated phenonemon that only occurs on the East Coast. Still, for those of you out on the Coast, buckle down, batten down and don’t go anywhere that you absolutely don’t have to – same advice you get everywhere else. Good luck and I hope you don’t lose your power because they’re still backlogged with Sandy power outages in some places (or so I hear).
And isn’t this a consequence of the same type of patterns that brought Sandy up the coast?

ShrNfr

Relax everyone. Typical over-hyping of a purely natural random walk thru the weather extremes. But watch the MSM for their end-of-the-world proselytizing. After all, the warmer it gets, the more that it snows. Or sumthin’ like that.
Big snow event? Probably.
Snowmaggeden? a Snowpocalypse? Nah.

If this storm is as bad as they suggest, weathermen should get a lot of credit. We certainly give them enough grief when they’re wrong.
Joe Bastardi alerted me to the possibility of a storm last weekend, and of a worse-than-normal storm by Tuesday. Since then I’ve pretended I lived back before computers and satellites, and tried to see signs a big storm was coming by observing livestock, wildlife and the skies. There is no way I would have suspected anything unusual was in the cards until around noon today. Then the wind began to suddenly blow steadily, and the pines began a steady sighing quite unlike the usual passing gusts. In the old days, I suppose that is when the old Yankee would scratch their chins and say, “Looks like we’re in for a bit of a blow.” However that wasn’t much help, when they were out on the Grand Banks, fishing. Fishermen were very weatherwise, but whole fleets used to get wiped out by these bombogenesis storms. I think is is pretty impressive that modern weathermen can see them coming, even if they don’t always get the exact track right.

Lon Hocker

Lucky I live Hawaii.

Owen in Ga

I remember January 1978 we had loads of snow, but I don’t remember the winds being as bad as they are forecasting for this one. Of course I was a little farther south in Maryland at the time so didn’t have the straight line ocean winds to deal with. We just lit the fire through the snow and then shoveled for two days afterward. Of course all these eco-freak houses they build these days with no fireplace are rather out of luck for these sorts of things now. Piles of blankets and close body heat do wonders in a cold house though

dmacleo

etna maine. expecting 20+ with some 50mph gusts.
local weather guys are pretty good.
snowblower and tractor all set, shed heat is on. keep it at 50 on blizzard nights, helps the hydro transaxle.
130 lbs of wheel weights, 150 lbs of weight buckets leveraged out on back end, deestone superlugs and tire chains.
just another storm in maine.

Harold Ambler
Jim from Maine

“TEXinDFW says:
February 8, 2013 at 1:16 pm
Relax everyone. Typical over-hyping of a purely natural random walk thru the weather extremes. But watch the MSM for their end-of-the-world proselytizing. After all, the warmer it gets, the more that it snows. Or sumthin’ like that.
Big snow event? Probably.
Snowmaggeden? a Snowpocalypse? Nah.”
One of the things that makes this a bit different is the storm is forecasted to “stall” just off the cape. There are sustained winds of 60mph, gusts over that. That is going to pile water up “inside the elbow” into what’s known by locals as Cape Cod Bay. Scitaute Ma is looking at 24-26ft waves, Sandwich Harbor, 18-20′ waves. I’ve lived in New England most of my life, and I can tell you, if those models are anywhere near accurate, there will be a lot of damage along the coast, not dissimilar from Sandy in isolated spots.
Also pretty rare for us to get this amount of snow in this timeframe (<12hrs, for the most part). I've never seen a driving ban like this before, which is a bit ridiculous in the way it was implemented.
A friend of mine is in the Nat Grid storm center. They have a pretty keen interest in what the weather's going to do. His words: "Bye bye coast." Another model was calling for 5' near Nashua, N.H., which has happened twice before, going back to late 1880's.
Quite a spectacle. What no one is mentioning is that the models are calling for another very significant trough a week from now roughly the 16th.
Jim

Frank K.

Not a whole lot here in western New Hampshire. Moderate snow, maybe 4″ accumulation so far. We’ll see what the overnight brings.

wayne

Snow in Boston ?? Whatever is this world coming to said Chicken Little!
Seriously, hope this proves as eventless as possible for everyone in that area. But I’m sure the media will ferret out some collapsed carports and patio covers at least. Hope nothing worse. Lost ours in the same manner decades ago and we are about as far from the ocean and moisture as you can get.

SMC says:
February 8, 2013 at 11:23 am
> Huh. I keep forgetting the north east corridor around New York is the center of the world.
I wouldn’t know about that, but New England is the center of the weather world according to Mark Twain. Good read – http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/arts/twain1.htm

TomR,Worc,MA

I work as a municipal inspector and during the winter I manage subcontractors plows in a municipality across the river from Boston that has a couple of LARGE universities in it. I have 13 trucks on the road right now and the the wind is up to about 50mph. I am told that by 9PM (6:39 now) our time the snow will pick up, possibly to as much as 2 or 3 inches an hour. I’ll believe it when I see it. Just popped back in to the office to eat my lunch.
Will check back in later.
TR

Steve from Rockwood

The storm is being called historic before it even arrives.

clipe

Here, just northwest of Toronto (Brampton), at least a foot and a half of snow has fallen since 11:00 UTC.
Alberta Clipper. Radar does not do it justice..
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=WKR&sYear=2013&sMonth=2&sDay=8&sHour=11&sMin=00&Duration=12&ImageType=PRECIP_SNOW

Crispin in Waterloo

In Waterloo Ontario we have already had close to a foot. The neighbours have been out, those who are able, digging everyone out. Main roads are ploughed. Side streets barely passable.

Ed, 'Mister' Jones

Re-positioned an aircraft from Martha’s Vineyard, MA to Albany this AM, Arrived Albany 1145 AM. Lefty Albany by automobile at Noon-thirty, arrived downtown Boston at 4PM. Road conditions were good to poor, variable throughout.
Just went upstairs to check out the downtown Boston street view – VERY Windy.
Warmists are nothing more than Science-credentialed illusionists manipulating the perceptions of an uninformed public with a limited experience reference, I’m thinking people had become accustomed to a Decade or so of relatively ‘quiet’ weather, and are now getting a taste of normal variability reasserting itself.

SMC

Ric Werme says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:28 pm
SMC says: …
I liked the Mark Twain link. Who am I to naysay a master of prose such as he. I’ve just become exhausted by the ridiculous apocalyptic doom/fear mongering of the MSM.

john

About 5 inches of heavy very wet snow here now. Nearly impossible to move with snowblower. Large ash tree came down in my yard but no damage yet (I will gladly take that 1.5 cords).. Winds about 30 with higher gusts near 45. Power flickering but the local grid is robust so I do not expect any extended outage.

clipe

[snip – waaaaaaaaay off topic]

Gail Combs

“I’ve just become exhausted by the ridiculous apocalyptic doom/fear mongering of the MSM.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Amen
I have a picture of my VW in April with a yardstick stuck in the snow next to it showing 31 inches of new snow. This picture was taken just north of Lawrence MA. It was taken in the mid 1980’s.
A blizzard in February? What the heck is the big deal?
Do these people suffer from complete memory loss or something?

TomR,Worc,MA says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:40 pm

I work as a municipal inspector and during the winter I manage subcontractors plows in a municipality across the river from Boston that has a couple of LARGE universities in it. I have 13 trucks on the road right now and the the wind is up to about 50mph. I am told that by 9PM (6:39 now) our time the snow will pick up, possibly to as much as 2 or 3 inches an hour.

Wunderground for Cambridge MA shows it’s still warm there, like around 30F, but 26 in Medford, 22 in Lexington, so I think you’re about to be on the colder, snowier side of the coastal front. NECN says that too – “the snow is about to snap back to the coast.” They also report a number of areas are getting 2-3″/h snow. Looks like a long night for you guys.

dmacleo

I have had squalls all day, about 3″ and its starting here now. about 8 deg out and a very dry snow so far. due to my terrain I drift a lot. was also updated to 24-28 so I may have some nice 5 foot drift pictures tomorrow 🙂
its maine. its snow. its nothing really.
the light stuff clears so easily. sneeze and it moves and since I have a bad head cold I may sneezepower it all away 🙂

Oops – one stuck in the spam filt mods? TIA _Jim
PS: Lots of power-out reports in Massachusetts/Boston area .. nearing 100,000 at the moment.

Anna Keppa

I live in west suburban Boston, MA. I stepped out onto my back porch at 8:30 this evening to fetch some logs for the fireplace, looked to see a near white-out of intensely blowing/falling snow lit by street lights—-and immediately called my teen-aged kid visiting a pal three blocks up the street to tell him to get home quick. It’s really, seriously, gloriously snowing! A Blizzard! And we’ve even had a little lightning (hyped by the meteorological incontinent Weather Channel as “thunder snow”. Extreme Weather!!).
and oh yes! Up til now this winter, we’ve had one 5 in/12 cm snowfall, and two one-inchers. EACH TIME, our crack Dept. Public Works team dropped tons of rock salt overnight onto our streets and the adjacent grass. Come spring, when our wildly over-paid DPW workers have long spent their winter overtime on Wagyu, Wymyn and Westvleteren, that grass will die, along with shrubs and small trees. But the local “greenies” will utter not a peep to object.

clipe

clipe says:
February 8, 2013 at 6:20 pm
[snip – waaaaaaaaay off topic]
Yes. But when discussing ‘climatology’ isn’t that the whole point? It’s off topic.