By P Gosselin
Recent Germany forecasts of “never seen before heat” coming next week are already fizzling out. Of course there’s going to be some hot weather next week, but probably nothing like the click-baiting media have been warning.
Snowfan at “wobleibtdieerderwaermung” reports today that none of the ECMWF models is predicting a heat wave and that they continue to show heavy summer rainfall across large parts of Germany.
The SWISS model (above-left) is forecasting heavy summer rain from July 25, 2026, through early August across large parts of Germany, except for the southeastern half. The AISF (above-right) is forecasting heavy rainfall of 40 to 50 mm across all parts of Germany through August 9, 2026. Source: Kachelmannwetter model forecasts for precipitation amounts in Germany, with additions. (It’s important to note that model forecasts can vary widely from model to model beyond 5 days out).
The AI version (below) of the ECMWF (top) also doesn’t forecast a heat wave, just two days with temperatures over 30°C:
ECMWF July 25 forecast. No real heat wave.
Ironically. amid all the media hype over drought and heat, Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic have been quite chilly over the past week, with reports of ground frost or near ground frost yesterday morning:
Ground surface low temps yesterday over Germany. Image: Wetteronline
Next week we’ll find out if the forecast models mentioned above were right.