Model-Data Comparison: Pacific Ocean Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Guest post by Bob Tisdale
I’ll be adding the Pacific Ocean (60S-65N, 120E-80W) sea surface temperature anomalies to my monthly updates. See Figure 1 for the area covered by those coordinates. Why add the Pacific Ocean? It covers about 45% of the surface area of the global oceans and about 33% of the surface area of the globe (land+oceans combined). Or, to look at it another way, the Pacific Ocean covers more of the globe than the continental land masses combined. The Pacific stretches almost halfway around the globe at the equator, which is one of the reasons why El Niño and La Niña events are so important to global climate. When an El Niño releases a massive volume of naturally created warm water from below the surface of the western tropical Pacific and spreads it across the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific, precipitation and surface temperatures react globally—responding to the all of the additional moisture in the atmosphere and to the shifts in atmospheric circulation (jet streams).
Figure 1
With that in mind, I decided to run a quick model-data comparison for the Pacific, using the coordinates listed above.
The following graph (Figure 2) compares the Reynolds OI.v2-based satellite era sea surface temperature anomalies to the multi-model ensemble mean of the RCP6.0-based climate models from the CMIP5 archive. Those model outputs are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer. The CMIP5 archive is being used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their upcoming 5th Assessment Report (AR5). Climate forcing scenario RCP6.0 is similar to the commonly used A1B scenario from past IPCC reports. I’ve started the comparison in January 1994, right after the apparent rebound from the impacts of the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo—the impacts in the data, not the models. The model mean represents the best-guess estimate of how the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific Ocean would warm IF they were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases. The models say the Pacific sea surface temperatures should have warmed approximately 0.4 deg C or about 0.7 deg F. However, based on the linear trend, the satellite-based data for the Pacific Ocean haven’t warmed since 1994. That’s one month shy of 19 years, almost 2 decades, with no warming of the sea surface temperatures for the entire Pacific Ocean. That’s a chunk of real estate (wet real estate) that appears to contradict the hypothesis of greenhouse gas-driven global warming. I have a funny feeling we won’t see this model-data comparison in the upcoming IPCC AR5.
Figure 2
If we extend the model-data comparison back in time to the November 1981 start of the dataset, Figure 3, the trend of the model simulations is still about 3 times higher than the observed warming. If the modelers can’t even simulate the warming of the largest ocean basin on the planet, what value do the models have? Some readers might think the answers are none, nada, zip.
Figure 3
Figure 4 presents the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies as they will appear in the monthly updates.
Figure 4
FOR THOSE NEW TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY GRAPHS
The large upward spikes in Figure 4 are caused by El Niño events and most of the downward ones are caused by La Niñas. The effects of the explosive volcanic eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are also evident. The eruption of El Chichon counteracted the effects of the 1982/83 El Niño, which was comparable in size to the one in 1997/98, so the spike in 1982/83 would have been stronger if not for that volcanic eruption. And the eruption of Mount Pinatubo overwhelmed the effects of a series of smaller El Ninos around then and caused the apparent dip and rebound from 1991 until the end of 1993.
HAT TIP
Many thanks to Jennifer Marohasy.
INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA AND THEIR LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES?
Why should you be interested? Sea surface temperature records indicate El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 30 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
I’ve recently published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.
Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Every Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing. The book was updated recently to correct a few typos.
Please buy a copy. (Credit/Debit Card through PayPal. You do NOT need to open a PayPal account.). It’s only US$8.00.
VIDEOS
For those who’d like a more detailed preview of Who Turned on the Heat? see Part 1 and Part 2 of the video series The Natural Warming of the Global Oceans. Part 1 appeared in the 24-hour WattsUpWithThat TV (WUWT-TV) special hosted by Anthony Watts in November 2012. You may also be interested in the video Dear President Obama: A Video Memo about Climate Change.
SOURCES
The NOAA Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (Reynolds OI.v2) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
The CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature data (identified as TOS, assumedly for Temperature of the Ocean Surface) is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer Monthly CMIP5 scenario runs webpage.
Bob
“When an El Niño releases a massive volume of naturally created warm water from below the surface of the western tropical Pacific and spreads it across the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific, …… ”
Me
Hi Bob – Perhaps the El Ninos spew out Keith Trenberth’s missing heat?
Susan S. says: “So shouldn’t the ARGO data have it’s own graph?”
I used to prepare posts solely about ARGO-era ocean heat content data. Example:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/03/25/argo-era-nodc-ocean-heat-content-data-0-700-meters-through-december-2010/
That was one of my favorite posts to prepare, especially the animations. Watch how ENSO drives the warm and cool anomalies away from the tropical Pacific.
But I recently published a post that was basically about the differences between the “measured” and presented ocean heat content data and about the fact that the “measured” data had unceremoniously been removed from the KNMI Climate Explorer after complaints by NOAA and the UK Met Office (there’s no other reason for KNMI to remove it).
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/06/02/ukmo-en3-ocean-heat-content-anomaly-data-disappeared-from-the-knmi-climate-explorer-as-suddenly-as-it-appeared/
The differences are so great between the two dataset that I no longer find the ARGO-era ocean heat content data presented by the NODC to have any credibility. So I stopped providing updates. It’s my silent protest. I also have a post in the works that I’ve been sitting on about that “hump” in the old data…
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/figure-1-global.png
…which was “corrected” out of the OHC data. It’s not a hump. It’s an upward shift that’s easily explained—but more on that in a future post.
And thanks for the kind words. Good to see the work is helpful.
Regards
Bob Tisdale says:
December 6, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Frank K. says: “Bob, I understand what you saying – perhaps it would be interesting to plot anomalies from the individual ensemble members to see what the yearly variations look like.”
I do not intend this in a rude way: But here’s a link to the CMIP5 output page at the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_cmip5.cgi?id=someone@somewhere#ocean
Sea surface temperature outputs are identified as TOS. Anyone can perform any analysis they wish to perform.
—
Thanks Bob – no that wasn’t rude. I’m capable of producing the plots, and I should do that and not always rely on the work of others. Thanks for all that you do here at WUWT. Cheers and happy holidays. :^)
Bob
There was a similar flat period in global SST anomalies during the 1870/1880 ‘s era which included low solar activity and was preceded by a major El Nino in 1877/78 followed by a steady decline of SST’s to1910. Do you see any similarities between then and now? . We also had recently a major El Nino in 1997/98, low solar activity and now have a flat period in Pacific SST’s.too. Prelude to a cooler period by 2030 like by 1910?
LazyTeenager says: December 6, 2012 at 1:03 pm
“….oddity I noticed is that skeptic land is able to accept that aerosols, with very very very tiny concentrations in the atmosphere, can affect global climate….”
Clouds, my lad.
As much as you and the IPCC try, you cannot ignore them.
Conrad Goehausen says: “Reprinting this comment from your earlier posting, which you’re probably not responding to anymore…”
Sorry I missed it. If you’ll let me know which thread, I’ll link this reply on that earlier thread too.
Conrad Goehausen says: “So my question is, why has that been increasing over the last 30 years, raising ocean heat content, and not just evening out? Why the step up to new levels, rather than just back up to the same level?”
Conrad, based on the rest of your comment, you understand the relationship between ENSO and tropical Pacific ocean heat content. So I won’t go into that explanation.
The primary problem we have with ocean heat content and sea surface temperature data is there’s too little data. Reliable sea surface temperature measurements for the entire globe exist only for the past 30 years—the satellite era. Before that there’s very little source data in the southern hemisphere, south of 45S, and that’s a lot of real estate. Therefore, we have no idea what type of multidecadal variability exists in the Southern Oceans. No idea at all. Further, because of the limitations of the pre-satellite era data, no one can say that the past 30 years is outside of the normal. Climate models are simply computer-based conjecture, based on a flawed hypothesis.
It’s even worse for ocean heat content data. We’ve only had complete coverage of the global oceans for a decade at best. Before that there’s little to no data at depth in the southern hemisphere south of the tropics. I still find it amazing that we can see the relationship between ENSO and tropical Pacific ocean heat content—thanks to NOAA for have the foresight to install the TOA project buoys there in the 1980s and ‘90s.
To answer your question, it simply appears to be the frequency of the 3-year La Niña events in the tropical Pacific—and the freakish 1995/96 La Niña. Without that 1995/96 La Niña, tropical Pacific ocean heat content data would be no higher today than it was in the early 1990s.
The above should also serve to answer some of your later questions.
Conrad Goehausen says: “Is it a decrease in cloud cover over the tropics? Why so much decrease then? What is driving that?”
Yes, it’s the periodic decrease in cloud cover over the tropical Pacific, which is associated with the stronger trade winds during La Niña events. What’s driving it? No one knows why ENSO has the frequency, magnitude and duration it does. If they did, the IPCC’s climate models would be able to simulate ENSO, but they can’t. If someone knew what drives ENSO, all of the ENSO models used in El Niño and La Niña predictions would be able to provide reasonable forecasts of the next ENSO season before the springtime predictability barrier, but they can’t.
Conrad Goehausen says: “It even makes me wonder how the oceans warm up to begin with. Is it only through direct sunshine? “
There are a number of other factors that can cause sea surface temperature and ocean heat content to warm. For example, when there’s an El Niño, the trade winds slow in the tropical Atlantic. The slower trade winds mean less evaporation, so the sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content for the tropical Atlantic warm. If there’s a multidecadal period when El Niño events dominate, the Atlantic trade winds would be slower than normal for that multidecadal period, which would, in turn, cause sea surface temperature and ocean heat content to warm more than normal.
Then there’s the impact of the surface winds from that travel from north to south and vice versa. If those winds impede the poleward transport of warm water from the tropics toward the poles, then less warm water will arrive at high latitudes where it can evaporate more readily and be radiated into space easier. During periods such as that, ocean heat content would rise, and that’s likely what caused that shift on North Pacific ocean heat content in the late 1980s, early 1990s, shown in red here:
http://oi45.tinypic.com/ftn2j5.jpg
Conrad Goehausen says: “I understand how GHG effects can trap heat in the atmosphere, but can they have that effect on the oceans as well? What do the AGW people claim in that regards?”
The AGW people claim the ocean warming (sea surface temperature and ocean heat content) was caused by back radiation associated with CO2, but the data contradicts them. Therefore, it appears the additional infrared radiation from manmade greenhouse gases only increases evaporation. Add to that, no one knows whether clouds provide positive or negative feedback.
Conrad Goehausen says: “Does the GHG effect have any direct influence on ocean heat or surface temps?”
The ocean heat content and sea surface temperature data indicate they warmed naturally, and the natural warming of the oceans account for the vast majority of the rise in land surface air temperatures.
Conrad Goehausen says: “Also: what is that causes the increased strength of the trade winds that brings about La Ninas?”
That’s a complicated answer—as if there are any simple answers associated with ENSO. There are many interrelated (coupled) factors that drive ENSO. The trade winds are driven by the temperature differences between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. And the trade winds are the primary contributor to the temperature difference between the eastern and western tropical Pacific. The other major factor that influences ENSO mode are phenomena called Kelvin and Rossby waves and their relationship with ENSO is the basis for the delayed oscillator theory. IRI has a reasonably easy to understand discussion of the delayed oscillator theory here:
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/theory/index.html
The introduction to the delayed oscillator theory in my book is written at an even more basic level.
herkimer says: “There was a similar flat period in global SST anomalies during the 1870/1880 ‘s era which included low solar activity and was preceded by a major El Nino in 1877/78 followed by a steady decline of SST’s to1910. Do you see any similarities between then and now? . We also had recently a major El Nino in 1997/98, low solar activity and now have a flat period in Pacific SST’s.too. Prelude to a cooler period by 2030 like by 1910?”
There’s way too little data back in the 1800s to draw any reasonable comparison. With respect to your last question, I don’t make predictions, sorry. I describe after the fact.
James Allison says: “Perhaps the El Ninos spew out Keith Trenberth’s missing heat?”
And that reminded me that few people realize Trenberth’s travesty statement was a discussion of not being able to track the heat/warm water associated with ENSO.
He wrote, “Where did the heat go? We know there is a build up of ocean heat prior to El Nino, and a discharge (and sfc T warming) during late stages of El Nino, but is the observing system sufficient to track it?”
Refer to my blog memo to Trenberth:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/09/20/a-blog-memo-to-kevin-trenberth-ncar/
Thanks again Bob, I will be rereading more of those posts, as I did go through the ones you pointed out to me, (read them too.). I enjoyed them, and learned something. Now to see if it will stick! Enjoy your day
Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year, from Susan in Alberta, Canada.
Bob T. explains basic science to LazyTeenager @ur momisugly 2:09 pm. Then asks if LT gets it.
To paraphrase an old saying: You can always tell a lazy teen, but you can’t tell’em much.
Bob T. explains basic science to LazyTeenager @ur momisugly 2:09 pm. Then asks if LT gets it.
To paraphrase an old saying: You can always tell a lazy teen, but you can’t tell’em much.
———————————————————————————–
I should mention my last name is Swedish?
http://www.swedensfinest.com/images/products/detail/1554a.jpg
“Once again, reality trumps models – Pacific SST’s are flat”
Reality is just a corporate shill for Exxon and the other oil companies.
A geography question. Where is the boundary between the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean? When I was a boy we thought that the sea off Victor Harbour was part of the Southern Ocean, but the sea off the East Coast was part of the Pacific Ocean. That would mean a boundary starting somewhere near Tasmania. But where is the other end? The Horn?
I put this in tips and notes, but it is probably relevant here:
I find solar ponds, or salt gradient ponds, quite fascinating. Primarily for their simplicity and their ability to harvest solar energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_pond
But, energy harvest potential aside, what they clearly do show is that much of the radiant energy from the sun which strikes a water body MUST be absorbed within that body, or if the water is shallow, in the base of the pond, where much of it is transferred to the pond.
In the case of a freshwater pond, heating results in convection currents and surface evaporation, and the system is to a certain extent, self-regulating.
In a salt gradient pond, the massive density of the lower layers means the heat is held in those layers, which can reach 90 degrees C. (I have heard reports of boiling…)
Now the oceans cover 70 percent of the earth, and have an massive heat storage capacity in relation to the atmosphere, and have been absorbing energy for eons. The fact they are not boiling means the system has been very self regulating (convection and evaporation).
It seems to me that the oceans do not care whether the energy which strikes them comes directly from the sun, or is re-transmitted infra-red from greenhouse gases, still they self regulate, probably with fairly notable lag periods, and there is no doubt in my mind that by far the greatest effect on this planet’s climate must be the solar energy directly absorbed by the oceans.
I read all sorts of strange things telling me water cannot be heated from above: Well, it can be, and on this planet primarily is heated this way.
Very good information on solar ponds is here:
http://www.enersalt.com.au/Local%20Publish/html/solar_ponds.html
Bob,
Thanks so much for that detailed explanation. Far more than I expected. I find the ENSO phenomena fascinating, especially in the ways it can explain how heat can be trapped in the oceans by the La Nina events. (and apparently by the effects in the Atlantic of the El Nino events).
I agree that it’s hard to explain those La Nina events by GHG warming. I’m trying to see if there’s any way it could work, and back radiation just doesn’t seem to fit the bill, since that would be fairly constant, and not confined to La Nina conditions. I also find it very interesting that it seems that the La Nina conditions, if I am reading you right, seem to be natural positive feedbacks, in that the trade winds drive the very temperature differences that drive the trade winds. I’m still puzzling over what kind of conditions make this result in the kind of excessive La Ninas that result in jumping the ocean heat content up to new levels. I suppose it may be related to the PDO. Or perhaps there is a positive feedback mechanism that just gets these things rolling from one La Nina to the next, resulting in bigger temperature differentials from east to west pacific. Which brings up the question as to what would interrupt that feedback mechanism, and lead to a bigger “obstacle” to its reaching new levels of ocean heat, and even creating a negative cycle, where each La Nina fails to even return ocean heat to its previous level, so we get a step-down ENSO pattern, rather than a step-up one.
Not sure if that makes any sense, or if you have any thoughts on that. I’m just thinking out loud about the kinds of ENSO conditions which could lead to a global cooling cycle, rather than the warming binge it was one in the 80’s and 90’s, and the stasis since then.
I also find it interesting that no one really seems to know what drives this. It seems that the trade winds are the root of it, and the cycle of temperature/pressure differentials from east to west, but what drives that as an historical trend seems to be anyone’s guess.
Since many seem to be predicting a global cooling cycle beginning soon, I am wondering what you might expect to see in the ENSO data to reflect this. My own thoughts are that in some respects, the warming of the arctic may be creating conditions in the Pacific that could actually produce a cooling ENSO pattern – the opposite, of course, of what the AGW crowd thinks will occur. In other words, a global feedback pattern from arctic warming that ends up upending the ENSO so that it produces global cooling pattern, which could be seen as a major negative feedback in the overall climate system. Perhaps this occurs on long cycles, and it would be interesting to see the data. Too bad as you say we don’t have much data going back that far, or linking the equatorial pacific with the connections to the arctic and antarctic.
Thanks again for all your work. Really enjoying your videos and book.
RACookPE1978 says: December 6, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Oh. About your “perceived” cold water the next day.
You did mention that the storm in question dumped water (from the sky, from the upper-levels of the atmosphere in thunderstorms) right?
__________________________________
No, I did not mention rain. We were on the warm-frontal edge of the storm (a low pressure system), where there is very little convection, and no rain on this occasion. The cooling of the sea was not due convection, nor was it due to rain.
And I am not sure why you bring in the subject of submarines. If you have ever dived in the Med, you will know that the first thermocline is only about 5m or 8m down, where the temperature drops by some 5 degrees c or so. And the water at these depths is still quite dynamic, with currents and surface effects disturbing the bottom. You have to hold onto rocks to keep steady, to study any creature or artifact.
It seems more than likely that the rough seas mixed these layers, and cooled the surface (and thereby warmed the lower levels). I was hoping for someone to point me in the direction of a study of this effect, rather than a submariner’s yarn.
.
RoHa says: “Where is the boundary between the Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean?”
The CIA website lists the boundary at 60S:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/oo.html
@RoHa & Bob Tisdale:
I think the definition of “Southern Ocean” was recently changed. Per the wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean
Geographers disagree on the Southern Ocean’s northern boundary or even its existence, with many considering the waters part of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans instead. Other regard the Antarctic Convergence, an ocean zone which fluctuates seasonally, as separating the Southern Ocean from other oceans, rather than the 60th parallel. Australian authorities regard the Southern Ocean as lying immediately south of Australia.
The International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) has not yet ratified its 2000 definition of the ocean as being south of 60°S. Its latest published definition of oceans dates from 1953; this does not include the Southern Ocean. However, the more recent definition is used by the IHO and others
Or maybe they are just still bickering….
But at any rate, the idea that there is a clearly defined Southern Ocean is relatively new and not particularly fully, er, “done”…
Even more interesting is to compare the 1st half of century with models. Natural variability does not exist in models at all. 1910-1945 warming of 0,7°C is shown in models just as 0,1 °C – they do not capture the reality, just the radiative fantasy of their authors.
E.M.Smith, in many respects it’s nonsensical to try to put a border on the Southern Ocean, since it’s not isolated from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans. It’s their hub. I present it separately for two reasons. First, it is identified as an ocean. Second, it has that 30-year (maybe longer) cooling trend:
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/13-southern.png
Regards
Juraj V. says: “Even more interesting is to compare the 1st half of century with models.”
They’re terrible before 1976. Recall that series of posts I published last year. This two-part post provided a good summary:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/12/09/do-climate-models-confirm-or-contradict-the-hypothesis-of-anthropogenic-global-warming-part-1/
and:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2011/12/12/part-2-do-observations-and-climate-models-confirm-or-contradict-the-hypothesis-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/
Regards
Bob
“There’s way too little data back in the 1800s to draw any reasonable comparison”.
I realize that you do not make predictions but you have done posts comparing the period of 1880-1910 with more current events [ see DIP AND REBOUND ]
http://i34.tinypic.com/20r2y6o.jpg
I think there are historical patterns to the development global cooling periods that are similar including several low solar cycles in a row [3 or more] , leveling off and then dropping of ocean SST’s, AMO going negative, cooling of winters and the Arctic, more negative AO periods and in parallel dropping of global air temperatures due to declining SST and fewer strong El Ninos. El Nino’s continue but there are fewer strong El Ninos during these cooler periods. Your current post on the flat Pacific ocean SST seems fit into that pattern.
My opinion and half-educated guess at what is happening with models:
Models are an interesting animal. When they are developed, they are tweaked and dialed to match historical data, which is why they match so well from a certain midpoint backwards. They have lots of dials to tweak and turn but the favorite dial, (so well-liked the numbers are wearing off), is the CO2 dial. Could they use another dial, or a combination of other dials, to get the same affect? Sure. They could turn the CO2 dial to zippo and use all the other ones to get the same match on the trained hindcast. But then they have to turn in their keys and can’t play with the super computer anymore. But back to the story. Going forward, they let the tweaked and dialed model run a bit ahead. Alas, the match kinda sucks.
Not to worry! A new and improved model is born, tweaked and dialed to match the present data, and then allowed to run forward till the group gets together and creates another new and improved tweaked and dialed model. On it goes, keeping us initially impressed with how well the models match, hoping we will forget the short period of time they suck.
One of the best ways to see the growth of these types of “new and improved” models, and tweaks done on old ones, is on the weekly ENSO update page powerpoint that uses models to predict ENSO events. You want sauce with that spaghetti? What I find interesting about that set of models is the relatively new addition of the seat of the pants prediction (called a “consensus”). Humans make that one while sitting around a table discussing the topic of prediction. Lately, it has been lower than both the dynamical and statistical model means in terms of the top half of ENSO predictions. Does this mean that this group has reduced confidence in models? That’s my guess.
The models only match the raw data they are trained on, which is why after a certain point is reached going backwards, they suck. Just as they suck going forward predicting what the data will look like but have not been trained on.
Pamela Gray says:
December 7, 2012 at 6:41 am
“Models are an interesting animal.”
Being able to simulate physical systems in software is a wonderful technology*. But it’s also very easy to create models that include the modelers bias on how he thinks what he’s modeling works. And in fact this is a property of all models. Yet for a model to be useful it has to be validated against that physical system.
But if you don’t know how a system works, and you can’t put the physical model on a test bench, it’s not validated.
The problem with this model is that a venisuan planetary scientist decided that CO2 had to be the cause of warming on Earth, and to get the simulator output average temp to go up with co2 (since the simulator totally failed to generate increasing temps on it’s own), there had to be a CS multiplier.
They have knobs to adjust everything, and can only guess what settings to use.
I would at least at one point, consider myself a professional simulation expert, as I supported 8-12 different types of electronic design simulators, including equation solvers that could model an equivalent climate system for over 15 years.