Guest post by Bob Tisdale
I was visiting family in the Northeast U.S. when Sandy came ashore, so I was without power for most of last week. Since my return home, I’ve been catching up with all of the nonsense surrounding Hurricane/Extratropical Storm/Hybrid Storm Sandy. There have been hundreds of articles and blog posts that include references to climate change, global warming, and the warming oceans and their assumed impacts on Sandy. Yet no one has bothered to plot the long-term sea surface temperature anomalies for Sandy’s track. So we’ve had lots of baseless claims. Will the authors of those posts and articles feel foolish when they discover sea surface temperatures for Sandy’s path haven’t warmed in 70+ years? For those reading this post, who have access to the authors of those articles or the blog posts, feel free to leave them a link or two to this post.
The most absurd claim was made by Brian Reynolds in his post How a Warm Earth fueled Hurricane Sandy at The Energy Collective, which heralds itself as “The world’s best thinkers on energy and climate”. It was the topic of discussion in the post Frankenstorm-itis: Five degrees of Separation from Reality and Eleventy Gazillion Joules Under the Sea by David Middleton at WattsUpWithThat.
Apparently the “world’s best thinkers on energy and climate” rely on thought and not on data, because Brian Reynolds’s preposterous claim is clearly fantasy:
The Atlantic ocean [sic] is five degrees warmer than is was when most of you were born. Let that sink in for a minute. The entire Atlantic ocean [sic] averages five degrees warmer.
Oy! Five degrees.
He must believe most of us were born just after the last glacial period. That’s older than Mel Brooks’ 2000 Year Old Man.
What could that “best thinker” have been thinking? Then when he was questioned about it, Brian Reynolds wrote in a comment:
The point of this piece isn’t the exact temperature of the ocean, which is admittedly hard to calculate (You’ll note in reading one other comments that you don’t agree with me or one another after all) but rather that the earth isn’t a closed system.
Actually, Brian, you can’t dismiss your error and state that it’s pointless. You wouldn’t have written what you wrote if you thought it was pointless. Also, sea surface temperature data is available to the public through multiple resources (NOAA’s NOMADS website or the KNMI Climate Explorer) so there are no calculations involved. All you have to do is enter coordinates and the websites produce the data. If you had done that with a long-term sea surface temperature dataset like the Hadley Centre’s HADISST, you would have discovered that the sea surface temperatures anomalies of Sandy’s storm track (12N-40N, 80W-70W) haven’t warmed since 1938, when the another super storm hit the Northeast U.S. See Figure 1.
Figure 1
The coordinates are based on the storm-track map from the Jacksonville.com, which I’ve annotated in Figure 2.
Figure 2
For the extratropical portion of the path (24N-40N, 80W-70W), Figure 3, the sea surface temperature anomalies have actually cooled since 1938. It’s not a great deal of cooling, but the trend is clearly negative.
Figure 3
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF AN ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING SIGNAL IN THE SATELLITE-ERA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA
The satellite-era sea surface temperature records indicates El Niño and La Niña events are the primary causes of the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 30 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
I’ve recently published an e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all. The same holds true for Ocean Heat Content data. The warming of the global oceans to 700 meters since 1955 can also be easily explained through natural variables.
Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Every Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.
Please buy a copy. (Credit/Debit Card through PayPal—you don’t need a PayPal account). It’s only US$8.00.
You’re probably asking yourself why you should spend $8.00 for a book written by an independent climate researcher. There aren’t many independent researchers investigating El Niño-Southern Oscillation or its long-term impacts on global surface temperatures. In fact, if you were to perform a Google image search of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, the vast majority of the graphs and images are from my blog posts. Try it. Cut and paste NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies into Google. Click over to images and start counting the number of times you see Bob Tisdale.
By independent I mean I am not employed in a research or academic position; I’m not obligated to publish results that encourage future funding for my research—that is, my research is not agenda-driven. I’m a retiree, a pensioner, with a background in fluid dynamics. The only funding I receive is from book sales and donations at my blog. Also, I’m independent inasmuch as I’m not tied to consensus opinions so that my findings will pass through the gauntlet of peer-review gatekeepers. Truth be told, it’s unlikely the results of my research would pass through that gauntlet because the satellite-era sea surface temperature data contradicts the tenets of the consensus.
SOURCE
The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer website.
Thanks, Anthony!
The temperature hasn’t changed?
But I just read Trenberth saying that 0.6 degrees of the warming was anthropogenic. When you calculate everything you get lebenty-leben gazillion Joules of raw hurricane energy.
Don’t tell me all that heat has gone missing again! If you lose something once it’s an accident. Twice it’s incompetence.
Bob,
How does this fit with the map you showed of SST anomalies for October? They look pretty high near where Sandy approached the shore.
Excellent info Bob!
I would also personally attest that the book referenced is packed with knowledge and worth every cent. .
I am curious if they maintained the pressure record of 145.5mb to best the prior storms 146mb
Thanks for all you do Bob!
Lewandowsky has pitched in again to help all the stupid people who focus on scientifically irrelevant anecdotes such as above, rather than on data …
A storm of stupidity? Sandy, evidence and climate change
http://theconversation.edu.au/a-storm-of-stupidity-sandy-evidence-and-climate-change-10492?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+6+November+2012&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+6+November+2012+CID_d1ec84508271ad6eeabcc783d557a308&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=A%20storm%20of%20stupidity%20Sandy%20evidence%20and%20climate%20change
“There is no longer any reasonable doubt that climate change is happening all around us. There is also no doubt that ideology is the principal driver of climate denial.”
Bob, very nice work. A pound of data is worth more than ten tonnes of computer output.
w.
According to Trenberth, the missing heat is in the deep dark oceans where it can’t be measured (even by Argos).
aka “The dog ate my homework.”
Bob, a well done study,,,, only one tiny objection, you quote:
””’Apparently the “world’s best thinkers on energy and climate” rely
on thought….”’??
I am pretty sure that their thought was completly turned off, if there is
any left of it which is not even proven….
Spreading Warmist hoax does not need any thoughts…., you need “willing”
and not “thoughtful” personell, a big difference….JS
Bob,
Clearly, you aren’t up-to-speed on “climate science” and those AGW supporters who write about it whether or not they claim to be scientists. Making things up is the norm. It appears that Brian Reynolds just makes things up. This behavior is not new, but it does continue. Have you seen the recent post by Jo Nova? A Climate Commission graph with an 11 year running average seems a bit flakey. Just made up stuff – and I haven’t seen that anyone knows what was done.
~~~~~
News and political folks are making a big deal about the damage and deaths near the beach of Staten Island. Some died because they would not (or maybe could not) get out (without help). Even those not familiar with the area can get a look via ‘Street View’ on Google Earth. Houses and apartments line streets that are just slightly above sea level. They don’t look like the traditional Queenslander or a modern version:
http://www.powersiteblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/house_on_stilts.jpg
Nick,
It fits because of the amount of variability in local sea surface temperatures. For example, look at the temps in Bob’s first chart between 2010 and 2012; in that short span of time the temp varied from about -0.6 to +1.0. So is the current sea surface temperature off the shore of New Jersey anomalously high? Yes, and that could very well have contributed to Sandy’s strength. But that temperature is due to the variability, not a long term trend.
Nick Stokes says: “How does this fit with the map you showed of SST anomalies for October? They look pretty high near where Sandy approached the shore.”
HADISST updates lag by a few months, but it just so happens I prepared graphs with the HADISST since Jan 1870 and Reynolds OI.v2 data since Nov 1981, and with a horizontal line to show the Reynolds values for October 2012. I used the same base years for anomalies: 1971-2000. The Reynolds shows a lot more variability but the October 2012 values get us in the ballpark of the HADISST data. Here’s the graph for the full path of Sandy:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2629yz9.jpg
And here’s the one for the extratropics:
http://i48.tinypic.com/2im0tx3.jpg
Regards
Well, Bob, this almost certainly means it was caused by the lack of Arctic ice!
(/sarc if needed)
Crispin in Seoul says: “But I just read Trenberth saying that 0.6 degrees of the warming was anthropogenic.”
I responded to Trenberth’s nonsensical claim in my video “We Now Control Weather”:
I had made this obervation in a comment as Sady was riding up the coast – somewhere, I noted that SST were not warmer lately until you got past the pine barrens.
well that is all good…but you have to admit a carbon tax going to give us even better weather right?
Geeyore says:
November 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm
I want to know where we might find the “heat elevator” that gets all that deep oceanic heat to the surface to create (rather normal) storms like Sandy. Or is that “heat elevator” invisible, too?
Top notch again Bob !!
Glad you got back safely !!
All the schlock from the Astrologers (‘Climate Scientists’) reads like blatant plagiarism of Monty Python And The Holy Grail!
So Monty Python And The Holy Grail is the cutting edge of Climate Science?
XD
Oh that is a good one! 🙂
Thanks for the inspiration!
6:19 pm – “…I prepared graphs with the HADISST since Jan 1870…” Gee Bob, I didn’t think you were that old.
Brian Reynold’s post “How a Warm Earth fueled Hurricane Sandy” at The Energy Collective is so bad, you could really feel sorry for one of “the world’s best thinkers on energy and climate”. He may still be an expert in energy and perhaps write about that topic.
I saw a Siemens ad on their webpage – an excellent match, well deserved for both.
…The Energy Collective, which heralds itself as “The world’s best thinkers on energy and climate”.
Collective is not cumulative, clearly.
The rough rule of teamwork, arising from ordinary factors such as overlap of skills, timing conflicts, etc:
Two people working together will yield the output of one and three-fourths individuals. Three people yields two and a third. Etc. It’s highly approximate, with varying yields, but the rule is as more people are added, average productivity drops, exponentially. Thus you find equivalences of output, like how five how can do the work of eight. If adding more to the first one yields a rise in average output, up to where the drop-off starts, you’ve identified a minimum working unit size, like a physical job that must be done by two people, etc.
It also applies to intellectual endeavors. With regards to the Energy Collective, the apparent average intellect has apparently dropped below the general population average, precipitously low. If Brian Reynolds’s output is representative, if they add any more people then statistically the individuals may be unable to walk and chew gum.
Nick,
Is your passive aggressive comment an attempted subliminal suggestion that anthropogenic carbon dioxide caused Sandy ?
o/t,.. Happy Guy Faukes day everyone.
Its the difference in temperatures between air masses + humidity that cause storm intensity. So COLDER air (or more extensive area of cold) from the north meeting warm humid air from south probably accounts for Sandy storm intensity plus the fact that there are MORE buildings and people living there. Example: humid cold air -10C meets colder air -40C will cause a storm/disturbance front. Its the DIFFERENCE. There are now 6 Billion humans compared to 2 Billion when I was born. so ANY strom more likely to cause MORE damage DUH…..cheers
“ Geeyore says:
November 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm
According to Trenberth, the missing heat is in the deep dark oceans where it can’t be measured (even by Argos).
aka “The dog ate my homework.”
But of course that is entirely true. Everyone understands that heat sinks. It’s a fundamental rule of physics….oh wait.
/sarc