UPDATE: The NWS in Mt. Holly NJ has put out an extraordinary statement, dropping the typical “gov speak” and pleading to people in direct language. See below.
GOES-14 has been brought into service again on October 25th, 2012 for SRSOR imaging of Hurricane Sandy. (h/t to Al Lipton) Here’s a super high resolution visible light image of Sandy from today at 19:41UTC:
Click image to enlarge to 2400×1372 pixels
While there is no well defined eye, there is evidence of increased cyclonic vorticity and organization. Here are the current stats on Sandy from NHC:
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... RE-TRANSMITTED SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.
Dr. Ryan Maue has a summary on the Weatherbell Forbes blog:
Hurricane Sandy: Deadly Storm Surge Brewing For NY, NJ Coastline
It is important to take note of the unusually low atmospheric pressure of Hurricane Sandy. The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is based entirely on maximum sustained winds near the hurricanes center. However, Sandy’s structure is not typical of hurricanes that exist in the deep tropics. A typical category 1 hurricane would only have hurricane force extending several tens of miles from the center. Sandy’s wind field is not concentrated near the center and hurricane force winds extend over 200 miles from the eye. As a result, significantly more seawater that normal is being driven toward the coast. The central pressure of the storm would be more indicative of a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
NOAA is forecasting over 10 feet of storm surge into New York Harbor. Keep in mind that the storm surge during Hurricane Irene was approximately 3.5-4.6ft. The graphic below depicts just how dire the situation will become.
Similarly, Stevens Institute modeling is also forecasting a historic storm surge for NYC.
Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.
UPDATE: This from NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, it is quite something, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the NWS make a statement like this (h/t to Ryan Maue):
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
She now has an “eye”, only a fool would tempt her.
David Ball on October 28, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Still something not sitting quite right on this,…..”
I agree.
What the heck is the stuff about Smokey passing away on the open thread? Is this true? Cannot be… wth?
This is now updated. Romney will win:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205341.shtml?radii?large#contents
Sandy has made a slight turn counter clockwise.
Looks like the landfall has been moved further south from the earlier position on NJ shore
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/252035.shtml
For all of those who asked why a Cat 1 storm would be so much more disastrous to NY-NJ than to FL, remember that in addition to the frequency of such storms in FL, along with the population density factor in NY-NJ, a Cat 1 storm such as Sandy will “pile up” seawater into the New York Bight a funnel-like geography formed by the coasts of Long Island , Staten Island/NJ.and the Hudson River.
This has been the nightmare of meteorologists for as long as I can remember, but I believe that only one commenter took any note of it, and even then .rather cursorily,
If people in the NY/NJ area ignore the warnings due to all the over-hyping of Irene last year, and wind up paying for it, can we hold those who sensationalized Irene responsible for manslaughter?
Is it really much different than the recent events in Italy?
Rascal,
Good point, however this has not gone unnoticed by the local media in NY
A similar super high tide/flooding occurred in the northern Chesapeake several years ago with massive flooding due to water being pushed north by wind into a narrower waterway.
Long Long Range impact from Sandy. High wind Watch for southern Lake Michigan . . . Chicago is 700 miles away from the East Coast! Waves in southern Lake Michigan to 20-25 feet tomorrow night.
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
918 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
…WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…
ILZ014-291030-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.A.0001.121030T0600Z-121031T0000Z/
COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF…CHICAGO
918 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012
…HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING…
* TIMING…LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
* WINDS…NORTHERLY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
* IMPACTS…THE VERY STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN MINOR WIND
DAMAGE…INCLUDING DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS NEAR THE LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND…SO BE
CERTAIN EVERYTHING THAT COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS IS
SECURED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH…OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Fitzy says:
October 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Well there’s your missing oceanic heat, since the Earths core is millions of degrees, its obviously pushing warmth up from the oceans floor high into the atmosphere.
Due to Climate Klymaticking, or Goo-ball Looming, the storm will set fire to the everglades with burning Hydrogen Di-Oxide.
Shrimp, Crabs & oysters will rain down on the mideast, as a sign from Gaia, that every cloud has a silver lining – or perhaps a Gumbo lining.
A thousand years from now, Ostreae-Dendrologist’s will conclude that tree growth was hampered by an Al-Gore bloom of molluscs, a sign of Polar-Wind-Pushery. The cause, Ursus maritimus deliberately trying to hitch a ride south, kick-board style on ice drifts. Their goal, the all-you-can-eat buffet of the Punta Tombo Penguins.
Best luck to our American cousins, may you all get through unscathed.
============================================================
Until such time as you can back all that “mumbo jumbo” up with some graphs ……. I remain unconvinced.
Well done!
I wonder if the recent court case in Italy was in the front of someone’s mind when they worded this warning. It is as you say unusually graphic for a weather service statement.
meanwhile, back in the UK:
29 Oct: UK Express: Emma Bamford: BRITAIN SET TO FREEZE IN LONG ARCTIC WINTER
A FREEZING winter is on the cards with experts forecasting a repeat of conditions that led to temperatures of -22C (-8F) in 2010.
The Met Office’s long-term forecast suggests that, like two years ago, high-pressure systems will cut off mild Atlantic air, sending temperatures plunging as Arctic air moves in…
British Weather Services also warns of “significant” snow, temperatures of -18C and transport disruption.
***The Met Office said its winter forecast is more accurate than ever thanks to a new computer programme.
Government meteorologists have briefed ministers and transport leaders to be ready for colder-than-average temperatures until the end of January…
Councils have put thousands of extra staff on standby for snow clearing duties and a record three million tons of salt has been stockpiled…
Temperatures fell as low as -7.5C in the UK over the weekend, making some parts of the UK colder than the Arctic.
It was 6C in Akureyri, Iceland, near the Arctic Circle, while windchill from 62mph gales in north-east Scotland made temperatures feel far below zero.
***Some snow even settled in London – only the second time that this has happened in October since 1934…
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/355056/Britain-set-to-freeze-in-long-Arctic-winter
I am not downgrading the severity of this storm may have but doesn’t it have shades of the movie ‘Day after tomorrow’ when snow and water devastated NY. I hope you who live in the areas in which it is heading, will be safe. I wonder how Bermuda is faring, I lived there once, and the roads line the sea fronts and our little car was swamped quite a few times, getting home. And although on the edge of a hurricane it was frightening. The wind so strong, when shopping at Higgerly Piggerly store I could hardly stand up right against the strong wind. It’s the nearest I got to a hurricane.
– Ken G
Irene did $10 billion in damage.
Ken G says:
October 28, 2012 at 8:52 pm
I’d say quite different. In Italy forecasters said there was no risk before an earthquake, with Irene forecasters said there was risk, and there was $15.6 billion in damage from NC to NH. It was only a week or so ago I saw something on a rebuilt business in Vermont. Upstate New York was also severely damaged. The road leading to my Mt Cardigan property in NH still has some “temporary” repairs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene says:
The following is the latest reports on wind speeds related to storm.
Checked the Bermuda weather service:
Current conditions @ur momisugly Bermuda @ur momisugly 1:55 (Bermuda time): wind speed = 24 mph
Checked the NWS 1:10 am est :
Current conditions @ur momisugly Wilmington, NC wind speed = 17 mph / 28 mph gusts
Current conditions @ur momisugly Virginia Beach, Va wind speed = 23 mph / 33 mph gusts
Just for fun:
Current conditions @ur momisugly Cleveland, OH wind speed = 25 mph / 36 mph gusts
NHC is showing the “Cumulative Wind History” graphics to be inclusive of Bermuda and Wilmington, NC to be of tropical force.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030345.shtml?swath?large#contents
Just making a record of the current conditions as Sandy progresses. We are told this storm is huge with hurricane winds extending out a couple of hundred miles.
Never forget Irene. That one required Obama, the president of the United States, to command the National Hurricane Center! With such command hurricane force winds never reached the coast of the USA.
Ric Werme
Well its very unlikely to be a Frankenstorm. Just a normal LOW system with lots of rain and strong winds. You get these in Ireland quite frequently even in winter because of the warm gulf stream (and warmer air) meeting Arctic air. Sometimes on a satellite image they look terrifying LOL
Having used the epithet “Perfect” storm some time back, where does one go for this one?
Superlative? Celestial? Infinite? Surely not ‘Frankenstorm’.
Gird your loins with our prayers.
[quote] Steamboat Jack says:
October 28, 2012 at 7:33 pm
We used to find a certain grim amusement when we’d see/hear weatherpersons saying that the storm had safely headed out to sea.
May God take pity on the sailors.
Steamboat Jack (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)
Who was a sailor from 1963 to 1999
[/quote]
Amen to that, due to the size of this thing if anyone has to try to out run it or cut across its track to avoid getting run over, if it turns north east they will be in for a long pounding.
I had the “pleasure” of running across the front of a 150 knot wind typhoon near Guam in the early 1970’s and it beat the crap out of us. It was a wild ride but a lot of folks were seriously worried that some of the hits we took from a wild wave were going to cause some damage to the ship. When they hit the hull they would literally make the whole ship ring like a bell with a very deep Brruuuuuum shudder that you could feel run down the length of the hull.
I hope the ships at sea had time to get well clear of the storm.
Larry
Rick Werme:
Keep in m ind as well the tide is also enhanced by full moon.
I agree as well it is pretty silly to drop the “hurricane” moniker … it is worse in many ways – hurricane force winds over hundreds of miles for a much longer and sustained time frame. They do not call a hurricane mostly because it switched to a cold vs warm “core” – but the storm is just as dangerous or more so.
Pretty clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about or have not paid any attention to the forecasts and maps.
From memory Isaacwas 954mb at its strongest – Sandy is currently appx 950mb and dropping – predicted to potentially be as low as 940mb. It is also hitting a hugely populated area very susceptible to storm surge.
Irene’s flood level is said to have come within 9″ of overwhelming the subways.
There is nothing normal about this low pressure system – this hurricane. It represents huge potential for impact on millions of people.
Someone noted in here that the Inland flooding would be pretty significant. That fired a synapse and made me remember Keene Valley on Porter mountain.
Its the largest landslide in New York state… and as far as I kmow, still going.
I wonder how it is going to react to the extra water.
http://www.geologyinmotion.com/2011/06/largest-landslide-in-new-york-state-82.html?m=1
Fridays modeled path compilation here
Sat night compilation of various models path predictions here
And current modeled track prediction of the many different models is HERE
It would seem there is little doubt where this storm is heading any longer
An excellent “quick look” page to track storm surge is here: NOAA Tides and Currents – SANDY
i was in Toronto Canada during Hazel in1954! My Uncle was a police officer at the time. When the storm hit he was given the job of rescuing those who were trapped in their homes. Most people were not aware of the severity of Hazel until it was to late. Unfortunately my Uncle’s rescue assignment turned into a harrowing night of pulling bodies out of the local water ways! Instead of carping and ridiculing those who urge extreme caution and evacuation I would suggest you think of your families and comply with such orders! Many who lost relatives and friends during Hazel wish they were given that chance! the complexity of Sandy as it turns inland mirror that of Hazel! Be forewarned ….this storm can and will be deadly! Best of luck to all!