Stunning super high res image of Hurricane Sandy – plus forecast of a large storm surge

UPDATE: The NWS in Mt. Holly NJ has put out an extraordinary statement, dropping the typical “gov speak” and pleading to people in direct language. See below.

GOES-14 has been brought into service again on October 25th, 2012 for SRSOR imaging of Hurricane Sandy. (h/t to Al Lipton) Here’s a super high resolution visible light image of Sandy from today at 19:41UTC:

Click image to enlarge to 2400×1372 pixels

While there is no well defined eye, there is evidence of increased cyclonic vorticity and organization. Here are the current stats on Sandy from NHC:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  25A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012

200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK

HARBOR...

...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

RE-TRANSMITTED

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W

ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF

THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE

BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW

JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND

RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO

MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND

SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN

ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR

THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN

THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION

WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT

A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.  SANDY IS

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY

REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62

MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE

MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL

NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER

TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY

MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE

AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE

FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING

DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH

TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS

BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE

AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER

LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND

EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...

ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.

FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER

SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION

SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR

NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8

INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS

OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN

THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...

WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE

NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH

THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO

THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.

Dr. Ryan Maue has a summary on the Weatherbell Forbes blog:

Hurricane Sandy: Deadly Storm Surge Brewing For NY, NJ Coastline

It is important to take note of the unusually low atmospheric pressure of Hurricane Sandy.  The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is based entirely on maximum sustained winds near the hurricanes center.  However, Sandy’s structure is not typical of hurricanes that exist in the deep tropics.  A typical category 1 hurricane would only have hurricane force extending several tens of miles from the center.  Sandy’s wind field is not concentrated near the center and hurricane force winds extend over 200 miles from the eye. As a result, significantly more seawater that normal is being driven toward the coast.  The central pressure of the storm would be more indicative of a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.

NOAA is forecasting over 10 feet of storm surge into New York Harbor.   Keep in mind that the storm surge during Hurricane Irene was approximately 3.5-4.6ft.  The graphic below depicts just how dire the situation will become.

Similarly, Stevens Institute modeling is also forecasting a historic storm surge for NYC.

Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.

UPDATE: This from NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, it is quite something, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the NWS make a statement like this (h/t to Ryan Maue):

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY

NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER

OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND

DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE

BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND

WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS

FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE

AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE

OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO

IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT

THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU

MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE

RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR

RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR

PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS

ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR

ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
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Günther

[snip – trolling, off topic (sea ice), typical snobbery of Günther Kirschbaum – Anthony]

My experience with Florida storms is the storm surge is consistent with the storm it once was. Not so much wind speed and the momentum as energy wanting a place to dissipate. In the Florida panhandle in tropical force winds, the once 3 Dennis was still sending waves 30 feet vertically where they just sliced into the dunes. Over and over for hours.
That’s a lot of force to go somewhere in Manhattan.

Geoffrey Giraffe

“Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.”
I promise you that that fact will not stop them blaming it on a trace gas.
But this all depends on Sandy turning sharp left very soon now.

Kuze

Check out this great animated shot of Sandy from GOES-14 in ‘rapid-scan’ mode:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=100
Courtesy of Dr. Maue’s Twitter feed.

TXRed

I checked with friends on Long Island and they are staying in place, after having protected everything they can and laying in supplies for a week without power, water, and telephone. They live in the center of the island, so flooding is not as much of a concern for them. They do assume that some rain will blow in around the windows, though.

DGH

Catastrophic sea level rise?
Sorry to make light of a dangerous storm. We know what’s coming in thanks to Joe Bastardi and weatherbell. They have been telling us that this will be a multi billion dollar storm. Joe predicted a 940 at landfall. 5:00 update has it up to 952 but the models have it falling overnight. Yes it will be as bad as they have been saying.
Wind is beginning to build on Narragansett Bay and the surf is up on the outside – approaching double overhead in Newport as of noon. Fun to watch the weather…not so much fun to watch the consequences.
Stay safe.

Paul Tapper

Looking at that, I don’t know how anyone can think that our contribution to the climate amounts to anything more than pissing in the wind. It’s magnificent, glorious, and more frightening than anything I’ll see this Halloween.

TonyG

Geoffrey Giraffe says:
But this all depends on Sandy turning sharp left very soon now.
That’s the part I’m wondering about. I’ve seen two predictions of that happening, and one of it just going along the initial track and out to sea. Would someone please be kind enough to explain, for those of us who are merely interested observes in the whole climate/weather thing, how this sharp left turn is supposed to happen?

Never ever take any chances in a storm!

jlurtz

After surviving a Cat 1 Hurricane in Cancun [ this was a warm weather/water storm], that was enough for me. Water blowing at 85 to 90 miles/hour gets everywhere; shorted out the condo electrical system, uprooted palm trees, and generally made a mess. In the dark with the howling winds was like Halloween on steroids.
Never want to do that again!!!

Would some kind soul please explain why a weak catagorie 1 hurricane is so much more dangerous when it hits New York than when it his Florida? I am having trouble with that — I figure I am missing something.

G P Hanner

Yes. What are the mechanics of a left turn rather than arcing left out to open ocean? I know there’s a stationary front on-shore. And it appears that there is a pretty strong low mid-Atlantic due east of Cape Cod.

chris y

As TonyG and Geoffrey Giraffe note, the storm track is predicted to turn west in dramatic fashion in the next 24 hours. However, the 5 pm update of the model track ensemble from NOAA includes 5 model runs now predicting that the westerly turn will not occur. These model tracks are BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, XTRP and CLP5. Three of the models have the storm turning north and missing the major population centers on the east coast. Two of the models have Sandy continuing NE.

The winds will be dngerous but the storm surge will be the real killer. Best wishes from Queensland.

I sincerely hope everyone along the Atlantic seaboard is both prepared and prudent. I love looking at these wonderful satellite images but can’t get all those other images of Hazel our to my child’s mind. Some of us just never grew up I guess.

As blunt as this NWS warning is, it’s nothing compared to that given before Katrina hit land. For those interested, you can read the entire thing at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service_bulletin_for_New_Orleans_region#Bulletin_text.
Here’s a sample for flavor:
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…
.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
Still gives me chills to read it.

clipe
clipe
Chris Edwards

Wasn’t someone on Obama’s team boasting he did not miss handle a hurricane? blame them!

Alvin

We had a little wind and some rain, but nothing to speak of. Late season grass seed embraced the moisture and is up 3 inches in three weeks. Thanks Sandy.

For those asking why a turn to the left, it is due to two factors:
1. A blocking High north of the storm.
2. The Jet Stream turns westward instead of eastward as it usually does.
High’s spin clockwise and when Sandy hits it, it will “steer” it westward where instead of the Jetstream running SW to NE it is running SE to NW. These two systems are expected to act like a vacuum sucking in Sandy in between them.

David Ball

Anthony, do you as a long time meteorologist finding the coverage of this storm fishy? The phrase “mountain out of a molehill” comes to mind.

aharris

I thought the sharp left or westward turn was supposed to have something to do with the interaction of the two weather systems – Sandy and the strong cold front it’s combining with to make the “FrankenStorm.” Regardless, I hope everyone in harm’s way is either safely battened down or taking an extended vacation in another part of the country.

Martin Clauss

Anthony,
Is the ‘update’ about the candidly worded NWS statement on the Mt. Holly NWS website, or a different location? I couldn’t find it. Have done a few searches, and several ‘weather’ type website show it, yet I can’t find a 2:41pm update from Mt. Holly . . .
Please understand I am NOT trying to question the intensity and danger of the storm, and I agree with what is says – yet I wonder if it was done by someone to make it look like it came from the Mt. Holly NWS site . . ? both in a bit of fun, but also clearly a warning . I just wonder . . .

David Ball

boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Can you supply your sources for this info?

Gunga Din

Whether or not you think Man(n) caused this or not, don’t be dumb. Be safe.
Back in the ’70’s during Tropical Storm Ilya I found out that the old VW bug really did float. I would have rather skipped that experience.

J Martin

West turn – Obama gets re-elected.
North East – Romney gets elected.

“Never ever take any chances in a storm!” Agreed. The difficulty is the way storms are hyped by the media. Terror sells. Cute young things standing in the wind by the surf so you can see just how windy and surfy it is. I thought the piece by the Weather Channel explaining that the NC Outer Banks were sand dunes that could be topped by waves like it was a new discovery.
Awesome satellite picture.

clipe

chris y says:
October 28, 2012 at 2:38 pm
As TonyG and Geoffrey Giraffe note, the storm track is predicted to turn west in dramatic fashion in the next 24 hours. However, the 5 pm update of the model track ensemble from NOAA includes 5 model runs now predicting that the westerly turn will not occur. These model tracks are BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, XTRP and CLP5. Three of the models have the storm turning north and missing the major population centers on the east coast. Two of the models have Sandy continuing NE.

XTRP? Extrapolated?
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

Martin Clauss

Ref my comment above – I found the public information statement – I was looking on the ‘Area Forecast’ page . . . sorry . .

clipe
Richdo

@boballab
Thanks. But I don’t see a blocking/steering high north of Sandy. There was a weak high over Main a day or two ago but it is no longer there???
Here is a loop of NH surface pressure over the last three days,
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml

TonyG

markstoval says:
Would some kind soul please explain why a weak catagorie 1 hurricane is so much more dangerous when it hits New York than when it his Florida? I am having trouble with that — I figure I am missing something.
I don’t know all the details about this storm, but I can figure that, at the very least, it’s because Florida is far better equipped to handle such a storm, since they deal with it more regularly. Similarly, a 6.0 earthquake in NY would be far more devastating than a 6.0 in LA, for the same reasons.
I’m sure there’s more to it than that, including a certain amount of simple hype.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

Drudge linked to this NOAA graphic of the storm’s path:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/AL1812W5.gif
RIGHT THROUGH MY HOUSE, and that’s the solid black line.
PPL already sent out the robo-call to my phone at 6PM, Sandy is coming, power out for a week, 1300 crews being brought in for the recovery, etc.
An interesting time is coming.

eyesonu

Over 20 years of the boy crying wolf and now many don’t listen. We need a government bureaucracy to regulate the weather so we will know the truth as determined by the planners.
It’s nice to have advanced warnings but who listens any more?
Italian justice for the new post-modern era?

Theo Goodwin

Could someone direct me to photos of damage from Sandy? In all good faith, I have been searching the internet for signs of damage. I find nothing. In Hampton Roads, Virginia, known to locals as the Confederate Venice, there is the sort of flooding that you might get from a thunderstorm. I cannot find a wind reading beyond 55 miles an hour.
I understand that when the storm makes landfall there will be considerable flooding in that area, but what is there about this storm that is causing panic among the MSM and the government?

TomRude

David Ball, I also find the staging of Obama, Bloomberg and others interesting…

Paul Coppin

“Richdo says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:42 pm
@boballab
Thanks. But I don’t see a blocking/steering high north of Sandy. There was a weak high over Main a day or two ago but it is no longer there???
Here is a loop of NH surface pressure over the last three days,
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml
On your loop, on the last frame – the cluster of highs over the Atlantic between Newfoundland and Greenland is the “anomalous” blocking high that the NHC is ascribing to holding Sandy down. The high pressure dome extends down into the Canadan Maritimes.

Well there’s your missing oceanic heat, since the Earths core is millions of degrees, its obviously pushing warmth up from the oceans floor high into the atmosphere.
Due to Climate Klymaticking, or Goo-ball Looming, the storm will set fire to the everglades with burning Hydrogen Di-Oxide.
Shrimp, Crabs & oysters will rain down on the mideast, as a sign from Gaia, that every cloud has a silver lining – or perhaps a Gumbo lining.
A thousand years from now, Ostreae-Dendrologist’s will conclude that tree growth was hampered by an Al-Gore bloom of molluscs, a sign of Polar-Wind-Pushery. The cause, Ursus maritimus deliberately trying to hitch a ride south, kick-board style on ice drifts. Their goal, the all-you-can-eat buffet of the Punta Tombo Penguins.
Best luck to our American cousins, may you all get through unscathed.

Pamela Gray

This storm is category 1 over a much bigger area than the tightly spinning smaller category 1’s usually encountered over Florida and into the gulf, though wind speed is the same. A larger cat 1 hurricane means a lot more sea water, A LOT MORE SEA WATER, is headed for the coast. Further, this storm is encountering systems from the North and West heading towards it in such a way that will draw/push the hurricane to turn left over land instead of out to sea. So in summary, lots of water (coming from the sea), sustained wind (because of how damn large this thing is), lots of time dealing with continued lots of water and wind (from pressure systems keeping it on top of the Eastern seaboard), and lots of people (because…well just because) not used to hurricanes.
It is time to get out of Dodge.

eyesonu

Checked the Bermuda weather service:
Current conditions @ Bermuda @19:07 (6:07pm est): wind speed = 20 mph
Checked the NWS 5:48pm:
Current conditions @ Wilmington, NC wind speed = 17 mph
Current conditions @ Cleveland, OH wind speed = 33 mph
This storm is huge!!!! NHC shows tropical storm warnings (East-West) from Bermuda to Wilmington, NC.
Can hype kill?
Sandy is right between them. OMG

The reason this storm is so dangerous is flooding, both from storm surges and precipitation, due to the large size of the system.
Which got me thinking that one benefit will be more hydroelectric power, but was then surprised at how few hydro schemes there are in the area, given the terrain and high precipitation.
Here is a fun world map, with countries scaled by hydroelectric production. Note how big Japan, with similar terrain and precipitation to the Eastern USA, is.
http://www.siswebs.org/water/story.php?title=Worlds_Hydroelectric_Power_Map

Jack

I find it interesting and significant that such warnings are being given in plain language. It is as though the weather forecasters are unwilling to let the MSM speak, for one very simple reason: The MSM has been hyping storms for effect for quite some time.
And so when something bad really happens people have been primed by the MSM to not respond, because the MSM cried wolf for pretty much all of the last times.

A storm this wide and slow moving will suck a lot of heat from the ocean surface.

Theo Goodwin

Fitzy says:
October 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm
“Shrimp, Crabs & oysters will rain down on the mideast, as a sign from Gaia, that every cloud has a silver lining – or perhaps a Gumbo lining.”
How nice to encounter a connoisseur of Gumbo. As you go north in the US, the Gumbo gets cloudier and thicker until it can be served on a plate and cut with a knife.

Caleb

This storm does not have all its wind concentrated at the core. It is far out to sea, but it is still very breezy out on Cape Hattaras. If the westward turn happens, ( a big “If,”) Sandy will by then in some ways resemble those huge winter gales you see up in the upper right of winter maps, up by Labrador, or even towards Greenland, where hardly anyone lives. Those are giant storms, and the rare times they form further south they tend to “stall” out by Nantucket, and don’t head ashore, but still Boston and NYC can get clobbered by high winds and the biggest snows. Such giant gales are very different from the tight hurricanes that can clobber Florida or the Carolinas. The winds extend out much, much farther. While they might lack the sheer ferocity Hugo displayed, snapping pines like match sticks north of Charleston with 100 mph winds, they stretch out over a wider area, and are able to push hundreds of miles of ocean up towards the funnel-shape of the Hudson River’s exit. That funnel-shape is not good. Think an ordinary tide heading up into the Bay of Fundy, and becoming a huge tide.
I urge people to check out Ryan Maue’s Twitter comments. He includes very fascinating graphs. He also includes science that is miles above my head, but which I know some WUWT lurkers will love. He is concerned about high winds up only 1000 feet, able to duck down to the tops of NYC sky-scrapers. What’s more, he explains the logic behind such frets.
My main concern is the tides. I once lived in a shack on a dock in Maine, and saw it swept away by the sea when the sea was in one of its moods. The power was awesome. I thought I’d seen the worst, when high tide passed, but the tide kept coming up when it was suppose to be going down. Fortunately I was young and strong and broke, and “when you got nothin’, you got nothin’ to lose.”
This is Obama’s Katrina.
Here’s Ryans Twitter comments: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

David Ball

TomRude says:
October 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Something is rotten in Denmark. Wonder if it is the same plane that was used to determine the severity of Katrina. Supposedly cat. 5.

David Ball says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:11 pm
boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Can you supply your sources for this info?

Been watching the Weather Channel and you can see it there. Here is a NOAA map of the Jet Stream from Intellicast: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
For the Block high it is sitting between Canada and Greenland and can be seen in the final frame here: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml

David Ball

boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Still waiting on that source boballab, ……..

Quite agree Jack. The language used is fantastic. The weather forecasters have made the consequences as concrete as possible, rather than use abstract language. Hope it turns out ok.