UPDATE: The NWS in Mt. Holly NJ has put out an extraordinary statement, dropping the typical “gov speak” and pleading to people in direct language. See below.
GOES-14 has been brought into service again on October 25th, 2012 for SRSOR imaging of Hurricane Sandy. (h/t to Al Lipton) Here’s a super high resolution visible light image of Sandy from today at 19:41UTC:
Click image to enlarge to 2400×1372 pixels
While there is no well defined eye, there is evidence of increased cyclonic vorticity and organization. Here are the current stats on Sandy from NHC:
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... RE-TRANSMITTED SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.
Dr. Ryan Maue has a summary on the Weatherbell Forbes blog:
Hurricane Sandy: Deadly Storm Surge Brewing For NY, NJ Coastline
It is important to take note of the unusually low atmospheric pressure of Hurricane Sandy. The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is based entirely on maximum sustained winds near the hurricanes center. However, Sandy’s structure is not typical of hurricanes that exist in the deep tropics. A typical category 1 hurricane would only have hurricane force extending several tens of miles from the center. Sandy’s wind field is not concentrated near the center and hurricane force winds extend over 200 miles from the eye. As a result, significantly more seawater that normal is being driven toward the coast. The central pressure of the storm would be more indicative of a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
NOAA is forecasting over 10 feet of storm surge into New York Harbor. Keep in mind that the storm surge during Hurricane Irene was approximately 3.5-4.6ft. The graphic below depicts just how dire the situation will become.
Similarly, Stevens Institute modeling is also forecasting a historic storm surge for NYC.
Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.
UPDATE: This from NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, it is quite something, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the NWS make a statement like this (h/t to Ryan Maue):
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
Yes, and think of the DAMAGE the MEDIA will do! As they did this summer for DULUTH Minnesota, which had a record, 12- 15 in rainfall, which …because of Duluth’s geography, caused about $250 million in damage to “infrastructure”. Most of which has been repaired, patched for now, scheduled for repair. Now let’s see. Yes, there was DAMAGE. BUT, electricity, sewer, gas, streets were all passable and all business up and running within 3 weeks. YES, that hurt the summer tourism. BUT I ASK MYSELF….HOW MUCH DAMAGE DID THE MEDIA DO BY PAINTING A PICTURE OF A “CITY DESTROYED”????? You want to talk about your “libel suit” territory, that is what the MEDIA did to DULUTH to “get attention”. The Duluth Area Chamber of Commerace spent $250,000 on an ADVERTIZING CAMPAIGN to counter the propaganda, to get people to finish out the summer taking vacations on the MN “North Shore”. Here’ my point, the people on the east COAST (notice the EMPHASIS ON COAST) certainly are familiar with the concept of a “North Atlantic Storm”. NO ONE should be caught with their pants down, or their property not ready. IF THEY ARE…in many ways, they don’t deserve a penny of help from insurance or FEMA!!!!! They have had the BLESSING of the mild weather, the good growing, the “ocean view”, the SHIPPING, etc. NOW comes the time to “pay the price”. IT SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED and accounted for ahead of time.
SORRY no sympathy, no part of my trove should go to this, even though it will be taken by force (yes, that’s what it amounts to, as my taxes go to this..) for the “lack of planning” of others.
I’m tired of the hype, and I’m exceptionally tired of the “feel for me, I’ve been hurt” response from the people who shoot themselves in the foot, and then apply for disability benefits.
Max (Heartless) Hugoson
boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Thank you.
How many hurricanes affect Florida? How many affect New York? The infrastructure in Florida is designed to survive a hurricane. Especially after Hurricane Andrew. Also, in hurricane prone areas, the weak trees have already been blown down so that there is less tree damage than could have been. Not so in New Jersey and New York. Finally, this is going to affect an area of very dense population.
boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Your info is correct. Thanks again.
Look right above your post also you could have spent that time waiting using google and found them yourself. This tells me you haven’t been paying attention to the storm since this weather pattern has been predicted for the last 2-3 days. Also you could just read the 5pm NHC disscussion:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.discus.026.shtml?
For a definition of what a negative tilt is:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spotterglossary3#n
boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 5:33 pm
I usually watch closely, but it has been a very busy weekend at our house.
Still something not sitting quite right on this,…..
markstoval, you write “I figure I am missing something.” I am no expert, but I think the thing you are missing is the Arctic front. In the summer months, the Arctic front is well to the north of Canada, and hurricanes never come anywhere close to it. By October, the front comes much further south. It is the interaction of the hurricane with the Arctic front that makes it so dangerous. In 1954, Hurricane Hazel met the front and was basically forced straight upwards, and dumped all it’s moisture in a very short time period, causing all sorts of major flooding. This time, the front is almost stationary, and Sandy is going to hang around a long time, and dump all sorts of moisture it is still picking up from the relatively warm North Atlantic Ocean, and cause all sorts of flooding. Plus other problems, like a strong storm surge, and a high tide with the moon nearly full.
I recall from my time in upstate New York that in places like the Adirondack Mountains, plenty of homes were built on or near floodplains, and roads ran along river valleys.
Reading the bulletins, it seems that the emphasis is on conventional hurricane measures, especially evacuating coastal areas, whereas this isn’t a conventional hurricane and I think inland flooding is going to be the big problem.
I hope i’m wrong.
I will second Anthony’s motion that such hurricanes are not entirely “new.” Check out the 1893 season:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Atlantic_hurricane_season
While Anthoney’s data notes the two October hurricanes, (including one much like Hazel in 1954,) there was also a very interesting tropical storm, “Number 11,” which is interesting because it hooked west very much like Sandy “might” do. It cut into the Delmarva Peninsula with 60 mph winds October 23.
You can also dust off my outdated article: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/21/hurricane-warning-mckibben-alert/
However if this storm does what it looks like it might do, it truly will be a once-in-a-lifetime event.
As such, it brings back to me the times I’ve been told that certain historical events “can’t possibly have happened.” Reading through the weather history so painstakingly gleaned by David Ludlum, you come across events that seem fantastic.
Those of you who are young might want to make copies of today’s weather maps. Someday you will be an old geezer, and when you get telling tales about the ten foot tides in NYC, the young whippersnappers will get all scientific on you, and will say, “That’s just a tall tale….”
Of course, if the prayers of many are answered, Sandy will go out to sea, in which case, “Never mind…”
It’s still on the same course out to sea, no landfall in sight:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205341.shtml?radii?large#contents
I bet it will be a fizzer. Cold air is now mixing with the sytem (its far far too north) and still hasn,t moved on bet it will be a simple LOW by tomorrow
check out why she turns left. expect more wacky winter weather.. especially a colder northern europe.
So far here in central Pennsylvania, the rain has started. That’s it.
Been grey dark skies for about six days straight, didn’t see any breaks during the day.
Bet the people with solar panels are real happy with their investment right now.
Let’s hope they’re more happy with the insurance checks after they’re smashed by the flying tree branches and/or ripped off the roofs. Will they be eligible for tax credits and subsidies for the replacements?
Don’t forget the flying and exploding wind turbines. What happens when a “100 year” wind event hits a windmill with a (hopefully) 20-yr lifespan?
In other news, the Obama administration has finally made a bold move to cut federal spending. Federal offices in DC are closed on Monday.
If the government had such savings for an entire week, wouldn’t that be a good thing?
Martin Clauss says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:10 pm
I thought I’d try my hand at it, and the first “not quite” hit is well worth reading, Anthony may have gotten some graphics from it or similar sources. It’s a pdf presentation at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf by Gary Szatkowski – National Weather Service Mount Holly.
Got it. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Got there from http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/emerman.php and clicking on “Public Information Statement (Snow and Ice Reports)”
BTW, one of the things I couldn’t find for my post about the 1962 storm was an account I read of the town officers and other fulltime residents’ struggles just to survive that storm. In the midst of if a police chief suffered a heart attack and people couldn’t get him to a hospital for over a day. I forget if he survived or not, I think not.
This storm should not be as bad as the 1962 storm, but a barrier island is not place to be for it!
eliza says:
October 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm
One more time…. People have been expecting this hurricane to make the transition to an extratropical storm before landfall. That process is happening now. That’s one reason tropical storm and hurricane warnings are not up at the coast. Look at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ – they have a warning for a “Hurricane Force Wind Warning”. In other words, they’re expecting a “simple LOW.”
A simple low with hurricane force winds arriving during a spring tide probably won’t be considered a fizzer.
Record 24 hour rainfall for North America was 1979 T.S. Claudette which dropped 42″ on Alvin, Texas. The second highest was a few years later in Hockley, Texas less than 50 miles away at 38″. Other local records, highest temperatur of 109F in Sept 2000, and lowest of 05F in Jan 1940. In Texas we live with Mother Nature everyday and we don’t need Nanny NWS telling us to hide under the bed. Furthermore, we don’t need Big Sis FEMA to come clean up the mess. Grow up….weather happens.
Precisely. This is NOT now a tropical cyclone. It’s baroclinic. For NHC to continue to state so in their “Governmental Discussions” is a complete insult to the intelligence of any Meteorologist.
Sandy/cold front has officially brought snow to NC. Drove through Newland on the way to TN (~3900 ft) and it was 32F and snowing. Earliest snow I’ve personally ever seen in any part of NC.
Well I was kind of thinking this might be an act of God to knock the stench off the manure slinging politicians in time for them to see the approaching cliff that will contract our GDP by maybe 5% and raise unemployment to 10%+, and ‘do something’. Dream on, Ed.
Doesn’t Smokey live over that way?
We used to find a certain grim amusement when we’d see/hear weatherpersons saying that the storm had safely headed out to sea.
May God take pity on the sailors.
Steamboat Jack (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)
Who was a sailor from 1963 to 1999
Well, Tuesday will be interesting here in western New Hampshire. I’ll give everyone a full report. Meanwhile I pick up stuff in my yard today (in case we get high winds) and raked leaves.
TonyG and others,
H. Sandy is so dangerous because it is very broad and the high winds extend far beyond its central core. A more intense hurricane might have a narrow band of high winds, even much higher than Sandy. However, in the current case the winds are blowing over a longer stretch of ocean, thus pushing more water toward shore. This will last longer and the moon’s position will also enhance the height of these multiple and long lasting surges.
Sandy’s track is being forecast by many models with different ways of trying to determine what will happen. The ones with the “B” in the front such as mentioned by chris y @ur momisugly 2:38 include a Coriolis parameter called “beta” (that’s the B). The idea is that as a storm gets farther north it is going to show more turning from the Coriolis effect and change its direction from more west to more northeast and east. That’s why the BXXX models miss the mainland.
Working against the Coriolis effect are the Lows and Highs in place and how these cause air to move or not. With a High to the NE there is reason to expect Sandy cannot go that way (“a blocking high”). So, some think it will just go north. Others expect it to turn west because of the other pressure and wind systems moving around its edges.
So we wait.
Is this impressive? Looks like category 1:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-l.jpg