UPDATE: The NWS in Mt. Holly NJ has put out an extraordinary statement, dropping the typical “gov speak” and pleading to people in direct language. See below.
GOES-14 has been brought into service again on October 25th, 2012 for SRSOR imaging of Hurricane Sandy. (h/t to Al Lipton) Here’s a super high resolution visible light image of Sandy from today at 19:41UTC:
Click image to enlarge to 2400×1372 pixels
While there is no well defined eye, there is evidence of increased cyclonic vorticity and organization. Here are the current stats on Sandy from NHC:
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... RE-TRANSMITTED SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.
Dr. Ryan Maue has a summary on the Weatherbell Forbes blog:
Hurricane Sandy: Deadly Storm Surge Brewing For NY, NJ Coastline
It is important to take note of the unusually low atmospheric pressure of Hurricane Sandy. The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is based entirely on maximum sustained winds near the hurricanes center. However, Sandy’s structure is not typical of hurricanes that exist in the deep tropics. A typical category 1 hurricane would only have hurricane force extending several tens of miles from the center. Sandy’s wind field is not concentrated near the center and hurricane force winds extend over 200 miles from the eye. As a result, significantly more seawater that normal is being driven toward the coast. The central pressure of the storm would be more indicative of a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
NOAA is forecasting over 10 feet of storm surge into New York Harbor. Keep in mind that the storm surge during Hurricane Irene was approximately 3.5-4.6ft. The graphic below depicts just how dire the situation will become.
Similarly, Stevens Institute modeling is also forecasting a historic storm surge for NYC.
Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.
UPDATE: This from NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, it is quite something, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the NWS make a statement like this (h/t to Ryan Maue):
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
Whether or not you think Man(n) caused this or not, don’t be dumb. Be safe.
Back in the ’70’s during Tropical Storm Ilya I found out that the old VW bug really did float. I would have rather skipped that experience.
West turn – Obama gets re-elected.
North East – Romney gets elected.
“Never ever take any chances in a storm!” Agreed. The difficulty is the way storms are hyped by the media. Terror sells. Cute young things standing in the wind by the surf so you can see just how windy and surfy it is. I thought the piece by the Weather Channel explaining that the NC Outer Banks were sand dunes that could be topped by waves like it was a new discovery.
Awesome satellite picture.
chris y says:
October 28, 2012 at 2:38 pm
As TonyG and Geoffrey Giraffe note, the storm track is predicted to turn west in dramatic fashion in the next 24 hours. However, the 5 pm update of the model track ensemble from NOAA includes 5 model runs now predicting that the westerly turn will not occur. These model tracks are BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, XTRP and CLP5. Three of the models have the storm turning north and missing the major population centers on the east coast. Two of the models have Sandy continuing NE.
XTRP? Extrapolated?
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
Ref my comment above – I found the public information statement – I was looking on the ‘Area Forecast’ page . . . sorry . .
Animated model runs
http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2012&storm=18
@boballab
Thanks. But I don’t see a blocking/steering high north of Sandy. There was a weak high over Main a day or two ago but it is no longer there???
Here is a loop of NH surface pressure over the last three days,
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml
markstoval says:
Would some kind soul please explain why a weak catagorie 1 hurricane is so much more dangerous when it hits New York than when it his Florida? I am having trouble with that — I figure I am missing something.
I don’t know all the details about this storm, but I can figure that, at the very least, it’s because Florida is far better equipped to handle such a storm, since they deal with it more regularly. Similarly, a 6.0 earthquake in NY would be far more devastating than a 6.0 in LA, for the same reasons.
I’m sure there’s more to it than that, including a certain amount of simple hype.
Drudge linked to this NOAA graphic of the storm’s path:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/AL1812W5.gif
RIGHT THROUGH MY HOUSE, and that’s the solid black line.
PPL already sent out the robo-call to my phone at 6PM, Sandy is coming, power out for a week, 1300 crews being brought in for the recovery, etc.
An interesting time is coming.
Over 20 years of the boy crying wolf and now many don’t listen. We need a government bureaucracy to regulate the weather so we will know the truth as determined by the planners.
It’s nice to have advanced warnings but who listens any more?
Italian justice for the new post-modern era?
Could someone direct me to photos of damage from Sandy? In all good faith, I have been searching the internet for signs of damage. I find nothing. In Hampton Roads, Virginia, known to locals as the Confederate Venice, there is the sort of flooding that you might get from a thunderstorm. I cannot find a wind reading beyond 55 miles an hour.
I understand that when the storm makes landfall there will be considerable flooding in that area, but what is there about this storm that is causing panic among the MSM and the government?
David Ball, I also find the staging of Obama, Bloomberg and others interesting…
“Richdo says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:42 pm
@boballab
Thanks. But I don’t see a blocking/steering high north of Sandy. There was a weak high over Main a day or two ago but it is no longer there???
Here is a loop of NH surface pressure over the last three days,
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml”
On your loop, on the last frame – the cluster of highs over the Atlantic between Newfoundland and Greenland is the “anomalous” blocking high that the NHC is ascribing to holding Sandy down. The high pressure dome extends down into the Canadan Maritimes.
Well there’s your missing oceanic heat, since the Earths core is millions of degrees, its obviously pushing warmth up from the oceans floor high into the atmosphere.
Due to Climate Klymaticking, or Goo-ball Looming, the storm will set fire to the everglades with burning Hydrogen Di-Oxide.
Shrimp, Crabs & oysters will rain down on the mideast, as a sign from Gaia, that every cloud has a silver lining – or perhaps a Gumbo lining.
A thousand years from now, Ostreae-Dendrologist’s will conclude that tree growth was hampered by an Al-Gore bloom of molluscs, a sign of Polar-Wind-Pushery. The cause, Ursus maritimus deliberately trying to hitch a ride south, kick-board style on ice drifts. Their goal, the all-you-can-eat buffet of the Punta Tombo Penguins.
Best luck to our American cousins, may you all get through unscathed.
This storm is category 1 over a much bigger area than the tightly spinning smaller category 1’s usually encountered over Florida and into the gulf, though wind speed is the same. A larger cat 1 hurricane means a lot more sea water, A LOT MORE SEA WATER, is headed for the coast. Further, this storm is encountering systems from the North and West heading towards it in such a way that will draw/push the hurricane to turn left over land instead of out to sea. So in summary, lots of water (coming from the sea), sustained wind (because of how damn large this thing is), lots of time dealing with continued lots of water and wind (from pressure systems keeping it on top of the Eastern seaboard), and lots of people (because…well just because) not used to hurricanes.
It is time to get out of Dodge.
Checked the Bermuda weather service:
Current conditions @ur momisugly Bermuda @ur momisugly19:07 (6:07pm est): wind speed = 20 mph
Checked the NWS 5:48pm:
Current conditions @ur momisugly Wilmington, NC wind speed = 17 mph
Current conditions @ur momisugly Cleveland, OH wind speed = 33 mph
This storm is huge!!!! NHC shows tropical storm warnings (East-West) from Bermuda to Wilmington, NC.
Can hype kill?
Sandy is right between them. OMG
The reason this storm is so dangerous is flooding, both from storm surges and precipitation, due to the large size of the system.
Which got me thinking that one benefit will be more hydroelectric power, but was then surprised at how few hydro schemes there are in the area, given the terrain and high precipitation.
Here is a fun world map, with countries scaled by hydroelectric production. Note how big Japan, with similar terrain and precipitation to the Eastern USA, is.
http://www.siswebs.org/water/story.php?title=Worlds_Hydroelectric_Power_Map
I find it interesting and significant that such warnings are being given in plain language. It is as though the weather forecasters are unwilling to let the MSM speak, for one very simple reason: The MSM has been hyping storms for effect for quite some time.
And so when something bad really happens people have been primed by the MSM to not respond, because the MSM cried wolf for pretty much all of the last times.
A storm this wide and slow moving will suck a lot of heat from the ocean surface.
Fitzy says:
October 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm
“Shrimp, Crabs & oysters will rain down on the mideast, as a sign from Gaia, that every cloud has a silver lining – or perhaps a Gumbo lining.”
How nice to encounter a connoisseur of Gumbo. As you go north in the US, the Gumbo gets cloudier and thicker until it can be served on a plate and cut with a knife.
This storm does not have all its wind concentrated at the core. It is far out to sea, but it is still very breezy out on Cape Hattaras. If the westward turn happens, ( a big “If,”) Sandy will by then in some ways resemble those huge winter gales you see up in the upper right of winter maps, up by Labrador, or even towards Greenland, where hardly anyone lives. Those are giant storms, and the rare times they form further south they tend to “stall” out by Nantucket, and don’t head ashore, but still Boston and NYC can get clobbered by high winds and the biggest snows. Such giant gales are very different from the tight hurricanes that can clobber Florida or the Carolinas. The winds extend out much, much farther. While they might lack the sheer ferocity Hugo displayed, snapping pines like match sticks north of Charleston with 100 mph winds, they stretch out over a wider area, and are able to push hundreds of miles of ocean up towards the funnel-shape of the Hudson River’s exit. That funnel-shape is not good. Think an ordinary tide heading up into the Bay of Fundy, and becoming a huge tide.
I urge people to check out Ryan Maue’s Twitter comments. He includes very fascinating graphs. He also includes science that is miles above my head, but which I know some WUWT lurkers will love. He is concerned about high winds up only 1000 feet, able to duck down to the tops of NYC sky-scrapers. What’s more, he explains the logic behind such frets.
My main concern is the tides. I once lived in a shack on a dock in Maine, and saw it swept away by the sea when the sea was in one of its moods. The power was awesome. I thought I’d seen the worst, when high tide passed, but the tide kept coming up when it was suppose to be going down. Fortunately I was young and strong and broke, and “when you got nothin’, you got nothin’ to lose.”
This is Obama’s Katrina.
Here’s Ryans Twitter comments: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue
TomRude says:
October 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Something is rotten in Denmark. Wonder if it is the same plane that was used to determine the severity of Katrina. Supposedly cat. 5.
Been watching the Weather Channel and you can see it there. Here is a NOAA map of the Jet Stream from Intellicast: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
For the Block high it is sitting between Canada and Greenland and can be seen in the final frame here: http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_Entire/UA_Entire_03_Day.shtml
boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Still waiting on that source boballab, ……..
Quite agree Jack. The language used is fantastic. The weather forecasters have made the consequences as concrete as possible, rather than use abstract language. Hope it turns out ok.