Putting Piers Corbyn to the test

I’ve been given a link in email today to a public forecast page for July by weather prognosticator Piers Corbyn, which you can investigate in full yourself here. I find his web pages and forecasts hard to read, and even harder to accept any more, because in my opinion, he presents them like a carnival barker with overuse of  exclamation points, bright colors, over bolded texts, random font changes, and fantastic claims. It tends to set off my BS meter like some tabloid newspapers do. Here’s his USA forecast for July:

[UPDATE: 7/8/12 – The full USA forecast has been made available by Mr. Corbyn and is available here for your inspection: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/usa-1207-july-inc-public-summary-news-page-full-fc-key-usa-maps-and-extremes-slat8a-prod-29jun.pdf ]

Some people say however, that despite all that unnecessary gaudiness, he makes accurate predictions. Because he’s made a public forecast and advertised its availability, urging “people to pass the links on”,  here’s a chance to find out if he demonstrates the skill that is claimed.

He made this bold claim yesterday:

“Terrible weather is coming the world over this July so WeatherAction has issued free summary long range forecasts for USA and for Europe…”

He sounds like Joe Romm or Bill McKibben talking about “climate disruption”. Of course, it could just be another July in the northern hemisphere. Here’s the rest:

The USA pdf link is issued today on July 4th to go with the Europe link issued the day before. We urge people to pass the links on.

“We also expect very serious near simultaneous solar-activity driven deluges and stormy conditions around the world during our top Red Warning R5 and R4 periods. Any communication of the forecasts must acknowledge WeatherAction”

– Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist WeatherAction long range weather and climate forecasters

WeatherAction Free Summary Forecast for July USA:-

“Could it get worse? Yes!” – Extreme thunderstorms, giant hail and ‘out-of control’ forest fires’

pdf link = http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No32.pdf

(or no links twitpic = http://twitpic.com/a3y28b/full )

WeatherAction PUBLIC warning Europe July 2012 “Off-the-scale” Flood & Fire extremes likely (WA12No31)

pdf link = http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No31.pdf

(or no links twitpic = http://twitpic.com/a3p7pm/full )

The USA forecast map he provides is a bit hard to read, since it seems he scanned it in from print…note the dot patterns in the graphics. I present it here from his PDF page.

Here’s his forecast page for Europe:

He lists “off scale” weather in NW Europe is one of the claims. I wonder how one should define “off scale” weather.

As Carl Sagan once said:

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

So now that Mr. Corbyn has put forth some extraordinary claims, we can catalog here the evidence to support those claims, and revisit the results at the end of the month. I urge readers to continue to post both pro and con evidence here as the month progresses. I’ll put a link to this thread in the WUWT sidebar so readers can add information that might be relevant.

Since Corbyn is a fellow climate skeptic, let’s give him a fair but factual evaluation to find out if these claims hold up, of if he’s simply following the path of some prognosticators of the past, such as Jeane Dixon, who made claims so broad that even a small kernel of happenstance occurrences after the fact were used to justify confirmation of the prediction. According to the Wikipedia page on Dixon:

John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term “the Jeane Dixon effect,” which refers to a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions.

I don’t know that is what is going on here with Corbyn or not, but since he’s put out an open forecast, let’s find out. Inquiring minds want to know.

UPDATE: here’s a video of Corbyn explaining his methods:

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Anthony, I’d encourage readers to post their own hyperbolic forecasts — and then verify all of them at the end of the month. Winners could be paid in gold pressed latinum.
In terms of the Urban Heat Island effect and record high temperatures: I propose we stop fiddling with the current data. Just accept it as 100% truth. Go back and adjust the older temperatures upwards instead. That’s the standard practice in climate science anyways.

dp

To answer the question, posed I presume to an unthinking audience, “Could it get worse?”, of course it can and of course it will. Nature breaks records non-stop. This is tabloid weather at its worst. Reading past the headlines sucks knowledge from your skull – avoid it.

Eric

I would assume the “‘Out of Control’ Forest Fires” in the US for July would not include the ones already burning?

Farmer Charlie.

The Jeane Dixon effect:
I used to go to point-to-points in Hampshire, England with someone whose ability to have money on the winning horse was legendary. Some years later, someone tailed him as he placed his bets. He worked his way round all the bookies, backing every horse.

Edohiguma

Well, what I can say from watching the weather here in Austria, it doesn’t seem to be any different than every other July before. It’s hot, pretty much as hot as it gets in the local climate here in Vienna, with occasional thunderstorms. They’re not yet cooling anything, since it’s July. They usually start having a lasting effect in August (and tend to be more severe too.)
As for the flooding that he expects, those wouldn’t be anything new, really. Every so and so many odd years we get hit by one of the big ones. And in endangered areas there are floods every year. Some regions here are even more prone to floods and massive thunderstorms with hail. For example, the areas south-eastern and southern Styria are well known to have massive hail every year, and that goes back as far as I can remember. I remember as a kid, in the early 80s, my family almost got into such a storm with dad’s new car. I expect business as usual for local fire brigades and rescue services. There will be damages, but honestly, I don’t think they’ll be extremely off the average of the past decades.

When Piers made a set of very definite predictions about the extreme weather we would experience in May, I decide to pay for May’s forecast and see if I could check it’s accuracy.
My thoughts on it – http://mrsean2k.wordpress.com/2012/05/09/weather-action-reports-8/ – include some samples from the more quantitative portions of the report without the hyperbole.
Note that the portions of the report I show are from public domain examples, not from the paid version, in keeping with the terms and conditions.
I came to the same conclusion WRT it’s presentation – in dire need of improvement – but more problematically, I just couldn’t see how the way he makes his claims can be evaluated in a consistent and objective way.

DavidS

Piers said that May in the UK was going to be the coldest on record. It wasn’t!
I think he said 80% chance it would be coldest ever and 90% chance it would be a top 5 cold May. It was cool early in the month, but warm for the last 10 days or so, which meant we never got close to even a top 5 cold month. He is to be comended for putting his forecasts out there, but I haven’t yet seen him put his hand up and say, ‘I got that one a bit wrong’. But then who does!

Brian

So, he is a warmer now?

Brian

As an Englishman who has followed this site for a while, and never posted, let me just say that Piers is what we call lovably eccentric. However; it seems to me he is always more on the money than any Met office guess. Lets see, shall we.

H.R.

If the jet stream holds current position, Piers will look golden. If it moves, he’ll be the goat.
.
.
I like Ryan Maue’s suggestion. We can amuse ourselves while waiting to see how Corbyn’s predictions pan out.
I predict FROGS FALLING FROM THE SKY possibly in the midwest or thereabouts and possibly Algiers or Machu Pichu. At any rate, I’m sure they will be falling somewhere according to my general multichaotic nonlinear cat-circulation model (GMNCCM). My climate model is built on accurate observations of the general circulation of my 2 purebred Ragdoll cats as they nap, prowl, chase each other up, down, and all around as they beat the hell out of each other before passing out in a heap together. So far, it’s been remarkably accurate in forcasting hairsballs upchucked on the carpet and is consistent with rainy days.

Paul Coppin

We experienced record temperatures in several southern Ontario cities yesterday. Temperatures not seen since 1955. So what does this tell us? That its been at least this hot on July 4 in 1955 here. Big whup. That since 1955, the land mass of the cities in question have tripled(or more) in area of urban development, the bulk of which has been large scale urban/suburban residential and light industrial mix, acres of tar roofs and asphalt parking and roadways, including boxing the airport at which the readings are taken with square miles of heat entrapping materials. That the airport itself has had a probable increase of 10 fold in air traffic volume over its template. That the area committed to vehicular traffic and high speed highways mirrors the development of the airport.
So the likeliest conclusion? It wasn’t as warm yesterday as it was in 1955, in terms of climate driven temperature. Do we see UHI driven local convective activity? You betcha. Do we have more buildings to blow over and knock down? You betcha. Do we have more people to be affected and notice it all? A REALLY BIG you betcha.

Alan the Brit

To be fair, I think Piers said that it was possible that May would be the coldest “ever recorded”. I note also that the Met Office rounded up May with temperatures “around normal” for the time of year, requiring them to used every scrap of warmth in the last few days of that month, & probably night time temperatures as well to make it so! We shall see what develops, if he wasn’t any good at it he would have gone out of business by now!

Caz in BOS

Brian@ 8:47 am has it right. Mr. Corbyn should be judged not by the pure accuracy (or not!) of his predictions, but whether they are MORE accurate than the next best thing. So that is now the question: Who else will throw down an alternative?

Brian H

As a forecaster, I give Piers a ??
As a webpage designer, an F-. Absolutely putrid.

Well for the next best thing for NA? How about Farmer’s Almanac?

Steve R W.

Grab a kilo of popcorn. You’ll need it.
This post is going to be fascinating.

Chris Hope

I analysed Piers Corbyn’s prediction for May in the UK at http://www.chrishopepolicy.com/2012/05/how-cold-is-may/
Short answer: He was wrong. I will be interested to see how wrong he is in July.
@cwhope

Slabadang

Lets be fair and critical at the same time!
Ive followed Piers for many years now and I am very certain in my conclusions that Piers has some prediction skills far beyond standard meteorology. But hes a pure disaster when it comes to structure management and communication and is in desperate need of support ´with an organisation that mirrors his ambitions. Im very glad that he gets the attention that his SLAT method deserves and on WUWT we all get the fantastic access to knowledege and scrutany in an fantastic forum. Piers has really stuck his neck down in a snake pit and his claims is very controversial in both parts of the sceptic camp as well in the CAGW one. And I m sure Piers will be here to comment as well.
The last “Coldest May in a hundred years” has been critizised and Im trying to find any forecast that was better than Piers….. has anyone who did? Met office?? lol!!

JA

Imagine you are a climate scientist (with access to modern computers , satellites, and other modern analytical procedures, etc) and you are experiencing the 30th year of the mini-ice age that the earth experienced a few hundred years ago.
You run some fancy schmancy computer analyses, etc etc and you proclaim with utmost certainty;
“there is simply no doubt that given the advance of the arctic ice sheets and below average – and remarkably consistent below average temperatures- over the last 30 years, we can expect much of the Northern Hemisphere to be covered in ice sheets in 20 years. In fact, there is simply no doubt that we are in the very early stages of a new ice age that should last at least several thousand years. Canada and the northern USA will be buried under ice sheets at least 5000 feet thick, as will much of Russia.
Of course, this climate scientist would have been totally wrong.
Extrapolating recent trends of the last 10 or 20 or 50 or even100 years always assumes that the future will unfold as the past. Yet, the earth’s climatic history has been shown to be unpredictable. A forthcoming ice age does not in fact become an ice age just because it has been cold for 50 or100 or 200 years. . A period of warming ends in cooling, not hotter and hotter climate and ever higher and higher CO2 levels.
If CO2 causes warming, than previous very hot periods that lasted thousands of years should have produced ever higher and higher CO2 levels that , literally, should have burned off our atmosphere. But it did not. In fact, all these really warm periods ended in global cooling or in an ice age.

climatebeagle

Isn’t that forecast map from June and for June29th-July 1st?
It is in the pdf for the July outlook for the US, but seems to there to prove the June forecast was correct (see the arrow to the picture of the fire).
The actual July forecast seems vague, “searing heat will grip West/South” for where I live. How can you evaluate that, if only some areas have searing heat, if Arizona is hot will that count, even though it usually is?

It’s right and proper that WUWT should scrutinise Piers’s predictions with the same scepticism applied to the AGW religion.
The Hockey Team ‘keep the faith’ with each other in sordid collusion, never contradicting each other, keeping the Global Warming Gravy Train running.
True science is what’s left when all attempts at falsification fail. Good on you Anthony for holding Mr. Corbyn to the same standards as The Team. The truth is indivisible.

ARW

On the question of record heat/cold. One should expect that as our historical record data base extends with time the frequency of record highs and lows should diminish. If we had a set of weather records extending back 1 billion years, a series of closely spaced high or low termperatures might mean something. Unfortunatley the relative “abundance’ of headline weather extremes is simply indicative of a data base that is short in length, relative to the entire possible population of temperature measurements and therefore is essentially useless for determining the relative severity of a weather event(s).

pokerguy

Bastardi has the same over the top, ego driven style, though not as extreme. I really dislike this style of forecasting as it gives the impression of rooting for catastrophe. I’ve been following Bastardi for many years now, and there’s no question in my mind he roots for damaging weather events as a means to showing what a good forecaster he is. PLus, he just finds it exciting.
That said, he is good. One of the very best. So that’s the bottom line. I’m less familiar with Corbyn’s record.

JFB

Hello, I think we are returning to 1950-1970 climate conditions. The planet is cooling again, and extreme weather will be back like that times. Is very likely that we must live hard times in the next decades.
The more clever warmists knows that, and they are playing the game (more frequent weather extremes, blá, blá). This is the new challenge to sceptics. How explain this to ordinary peoples that have no memory about ? I think is good start to explain right now. Call Goddard!!! 🙂

daveburton

For the USA, I agree with the prediction of “out-of control’ forest fires.” What else should we expect, after the Obama Administration gutted the U.S. Forrest Service’s aerial firefighting capabilities? Eleven months ago the Obama Administration abruptly cancelled the contract for the U.S. Forest Service’s best firefighting aircraft, “the backbone of the aerial firefighting arsenal.”
But the hand that taketh away also giveth: President Obama offered hugs and money to the victims.

spartacusisfree

1. Piers admits he got the last 10 days of may wrong and has learnt from it.
2. His method is to develop a form of expert system into which he puts solar/lunar data. his present predictions are based on the low magnetic field of the sun making weather similar to the early years of the LIA.
3. His visceral hatred of the IPCC/Met. Office modelling scam is based on the dilution of standard meteorology in favour of an imaginary CO2 effect. The Met. Office meteorologists are fighting back against the dumb modellers but have clearly been forbidden from bringing Piers into the fold.

Sleepalot

For the UK, I predict seagulls with speeds up to 30 mph in coastal areas, with the possibility of ice-cream later.

matt v.

Canadian weather forecasters have predicted a warm and dry summer for Central Canada .Personally I see this extra warm weather extending all the way to September possibly. A similar pattern existed in 1949. So all the erratic weather events associated with extra warm weather are a real possibility especially at the boundary areas between the warm and colder regions . Some of these erratic events have already happened to date in June like extra rain and heavy floods in some areas, hail, high wind and tornadoes , power black outs, etc. Europe often gets some of its weather from across the Atlantic as can be seen via the current jet stream patterns . Some of this western warmer air is going to get to Europe like the heat from El Nino events does but slightly lagged . So some of Corbyn’s predictions are no surprise. I am not surprised at his predictions . They may not all happened to the degree he states but he quite rightly is waving a flag of a threat that may be real for some parts of Europe and North America.

stephen richards

I agree, it’s a shame that Piers behaves the way he does. His site is appalling and his forecasts over sensationalised. However, his forecasts, which are based on betting methods, do appear to be better than the standard Met off (which appear to be useless).
I’m on holiday in SW england from france and have watched carefully all this weeks forecasts. I give the Met Off 0/10. This is where their HQ is. We saw rain where they forecast sun and cloud and rain in lieu of cloud. Not one day correct.

Oldjim

Regarding the UK the current weather warnings from the Met Office for Friday are fairly horrible http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/
and from the local Manchester paper they are reporting 50mm rain
http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1582677_weather-warning-flooding-alert-as-50mm-of-rain-is-forecast-to-fall-in-greater-manchester?all_comments=1

Steve C

I agree with everyone else about Piers’ graphic design – not the easiest on the eye. But it’s a bold move and (while not looking forward to the predicted weather) I wish him well with it.
I think an appropriate response to people who point out that (for instance) it wasn’t the coldest UK May in a century is to point out that Piers, like any forecaster, updates his prognosis later if things start deviating from his forecasts, but also improves his model. The first three weeks of May fitted his prediction very well, and I recall from watching the charts at the time that during the fourth week there were a couple of shonking great lows which sat to the west of us all week. Assuming that Piers’ original assessment was that those lows would be over the UK in the fourth week, he would likely have been spot on for the whole month – and from a darn sight further ahead than the Met Office would try. As it was, he revised his theory and came up with a newer version which (presumably) tried to build in whatever blocked those lows from reaching us.
But as Alan the Brit says, if he wasn’t any good at it he wouldn’t still be in business. FWIW, the Met Office promised us torrential downpours here in the Midlands only this morning; as I write it’s a shade over 26°C and 21% RH outside, with the sun out most of the afternoon. Now, I’m off to re-wax my jacket!

stephen richards

Chris Hope says:
July 5, 2012 at 9:05 am
I analysed Piers Corbyn’s prediction for May in the UK at http://www.chrishopepolicy.com/2012/05/how-cold-is-may/
Short answer: He was wrong. I will be interested to see how wrong he is in July
So where is it that you work, Chris? His forecast was 75% correct. It was far more accurate than the “above normal temps, below normal rain of your met off. Don’t expect too many people to ask for your analyses techniques. They are abysmal.

Thank you Anthony for taking a measured, cool, truly scientific look at a hot, sometimes-inspired guy. Your points are well made.
Slabadang says: July 5, 2012 at 9:07 am
Lets be fair and critical at the same time!
Ive followed Piers for many years now and I am very certain in my conclusions that Piers has some prediction skills far beyond standard meteorology. But hes a pure disaster when it comes to structure management and communication…

This looks like a considered statement, thanks. My own impression is that Corbyn used to win overall (not every time) at the betting shops on his forecasts, and they had to stop him betting. I also seem to remember that Boris the Mayor of London listened to him rather than the Met Office and thereby London was prepared for the freak snow and ice we had December 2010.

AnonyMoose

“Off-scale” rain, thunder-floods, giant hail, gales & tornado damage likely in NW Europe

A starting point is to check the measurements of July rain and see if any of those are off-scale. I look forward to the thunder-flood measurement graphs. I think the giant hail might depend upon the current beanstalk crops. Crystal Gale’s tour schedule does not list Europe at all, so damage is not likely from her; I don’t know how many other gales will be there.
RyanMaue: +1

TomRude

I think it’s a tad disingenuous to take one set of predictions and grill the guy if it does not completely materialize, just as Chris Hope did in his pubescent blog. So the last ten days of May changed the forecast… big deal: 20 days were miserable and the switch occured one week earlier.
Yes Corbyn appears quite a character but do we truly believe that if he was making no waves his work would be noticed?
Finally comparing him to McKibben, Romm is totally unfair.

Jimbo

Since Corbyn is a fellow climate skeptic, let’s give him a fair but factual evaluation to find out if these claims hold up,…

Whether right or wrong his claims are testable unlike the CAGW cheerleaders.

Willis Eschenbach

I don’t understand how I’m supposed to tell if Piers is right or not. He only makes four “forecasts” that are so vague that Nostradamus would be proud of them:

• Waves of major thunderstorms, tornadoes and giant hail continue mainly in N/E parts.
• Searing heat will grip West / South parts with extremely dangerous ‘out-of-control’ forest fires especially later in month.
• Frequent low pressure over Great Lakes / N/E
• Variable band of high(er) pressure from NW to SE parts divides USA through July

As far as I can see, not one of those is specific enough to be falsifiable. How hot is “searing”? How many fires? Just how high is a “variable band of high(er) pressure”? How “frequent” will the low pressure be, and how low does it have to be to count?
I like Piers, and I’ve corresponded with him. But I keep waiting for him to make an actual verifiable checkable falsifiable forecast. Perhaps he’s made one, I haven’t checked them all, but the ones I have looked at have been the equivalent of these, vague claims about “searing” heat and “frequent low pressure”.
My own forecast is that we will continue to have waves of thunderstorms, tornadoes, forest fires, and frequent instances of high and low pressure, particularly over the NE, SW, NW, and SE parts of the US.
w.

His site has some design elements in common with http://timecube.com/ . His prediction style is getting a little “alarmist” and shot-gun style – I’m sure in the barrage of shouty assertions on those pages (I didn’t have the mental stamina to wade in very far) SOME of those predictions will stick.

Skeptikal

My cynical view is that this “open public release” is nothing more than a marketing ploy. Even if none of his predictions eventuate, he’ll have generated traffic to his site and maybe sold a few subscriptions.

Kev-in-UK

Just my twopenneth
1) ALL forecasting of specific weather over a period of greater than say, a week, is fairly fanciful – and anyone who feels it is not is dreaming IMHO.
2) Thus, it follows that any such forecasting must be ‘speculative’ and must be described in fairly broad terms. So, I don’t think it’s fair to pick on Piers’ textural context too much! (though his site and hyperbole is indeed excruciating!). But my first thought was to recall the quatrains of Nostradamus and the inumerable events ascribed to his drivelling writings!
3) Our resident comedians at the UK MetOffice are no better – in fact probably an awful lot worse (but that would require lots of analysis to demonstrate!), especially when they talk about weather ‘probability’ – things like 33% chance warmer, 33% chance colder and 33% chance of ‘average’ – LOL – and I’m sure their computer cost a darned lot more than Corbyns’??
4) My counter argument to Piers’ claims of accuracy and ability would be to demonstrate his method(s). If they are shown to be valid, even 80% of the time, they would be worthwhile to know? Only then, perhaps, would his apparent eccentric and egotistical behaviour become somewhat more acceptable to us general skeptics!

Bryan

In March Piers gave two low probability predictions for the UK April/May.
Winds from East and colder East coast but warmer west.
Much higher than average rain.
Both predictions were against the usual UK pattern.
The UK met office predicted a drier than usual period and thus supported the hosepipe ban being introduced.
Piers was proved uncannily correct.
In May for UK June Piers predicted cold wet and large hailstones.
The reason he said was the Jet stream moving south and blocking.
UK met office predicted usual weather for period.
Piers was proved uncannily correct.
The final irony was in late June the UK met office came up with a reason for the unusual wet cold weather
The reason was the Jet stream moving south and blocking.
So in LATE JUNE the BBC showed the recently updated theory from the met office with a graphic that was almost an exact copy of Piers graphic produced in MAY.
Talk about a clear embarrassment for the establishment.

Paul

A good post Anthony. I agree Corbyn’s presentation and communication skills are bizarre, eccentric and very possibly unhinged at times. He lets himself down with how bad it is. I also think his forecasts(I bought December 2011’s forecast) are too hard to follow to be of use. As far as how accurate his predictions are…

Lex

I think mentioning Piers Corbyn here is far to much honour for this guy. Piers Corbyn made himself ridiculous in NW Europe around 2009. His forecast were all extremely incorrect and to attract more attention he came with the wildest forecasts (superstorms), which again were also correct.
Europeans start to grin when they hear his name

As far as the UK is concerned, the Met Office say :-

The probability that UK precipitation for July/August/September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/6/3/A3-plots-precip-JAS.pdf
Instead of a £300 million computer, perhaps we should have given them a coin to toss.

Why is that horrible, nasty Sun doing this to us?

the1pag

What a nasty thing for a friendly Sun to do to us.

Hi
I support and promote Piers Corbyn at ClimateRealists.com, and you are right that he makes claims that are wrong some of the time, but in general he IS right MOST of the time in the way the weather unfolds during a month. The Met Office issue a “higher then” or “lower then” average temperature forecast along with “dryer” or “wetter” then average that is little of use and they have millions of tax payers funding to do this.
Piers is way ahead of the MO but as he does not support “man made” climate change, he has no funding, instead he has real customers who want real result, and they are happy with what he does.
I posted the recent Front page news article about his 100 year cold UK May prediction issued in the “Daily Express” in MID APRIL it went wrong for the last ten days of May due to a huge Sunspot going off later then Piers or anyone else had forecast and it threw this prediction out for 10 days by changing the jet stream location to a higher track. After ten days of the jet stream resumed its original location and the UK reverted to having a much cooler June then the MO or anyone else had forecast. What im trying to say is Piers has a very good way of forecasting weather patterns in advance using the predictable solar events on the Sun. But if the Sun does something unexpected then as we noticed in the UK at the end of May, the forecast kicks in again!
Take a look at this link from ClimateRealists.com and you will see what i am saying:
http://climaterealists.com/?id=9746

David Walton

Re Ryan Maue: \”Anthony, I’d encourage readers to post their own hyperbolic forecasts.\”
Here are my predictions for July:
Searing burgers, steaks, and sausage will dominate the West. Consumption of massive quantities of slow smoke barbecue and beer will cover the South East and South West. There will be an epidemic of children nation wide playing in pools, streams, and lakes. Summertime pandemonium will ensue across the land. Young lovers will seek cool shady and private places, people will get sunburned, fatso\’s (like me) will wear inappropriate clothing and cause laughter. Massive groups of teenagers will gather in public places and hang out. There will be copious quantities of cotton candy, funnel cakes, kettle corn and other questionable food items consumed at county and state fairs. A bunch of tweakers will set up camp next to you and blast heavy metal music all day and night.
(I wish I had the skills to change text size, font, boldness, and italics in all of the above.)
It is going to be another long and horrid summer.

AJB

I’m more intrigued by how his SLAT technique is reputed to work. Solar wind + lunar position used to lookup conditions in the past giving forecasts months ahead. Doesn’t that mean Piers must be able to predict solar flares and coronal holes? I’d love to know how he does that.

Ged

Just by looking at the spacial daily temperature and how it’s been changing over time, versus the ENSO… I’ll throw out a “July will be milder and gentler, temp and weather wise respectively, than June for the central and eastern continental United States. The Pacific NW will warm versus July averages relative to June.”
Let’s see how well an almost totally random prediction like that will work relative to his!