Guest post by Bob Tisdale
This post will serve as the sea surface temperature update for mid-June.
The post also provides an update on the progress I’m making with my new book The Ignored Driver of Global Climate. I’ve included the table of contents as it exists now and a sample “ENSO cartoon”. The reason I’ve included the table of contents is to ask you if I’ve missed any topics that you believe need to be covered.
NINO3.4
NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies (a commonly used El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index) are just below the 0.5 deg C threshold of El Niño conditions. For the week centered on June 13, 2012, NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are approximately +0.43 deg C.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies – Short-Term
GLOBAL
The weekly global sea surface temperature anomalies made an upward surge a couple of weeks ago in response to the transition from La Niña to soon-to-be El Niño conditions, then dropped, and last week they made a very slight upturn. They are now at about 0.17 deg C.
Global SST Anomalies – Short-Term
NOTE
This weekly Reynolds OI.v2 SST dataset begins in 1990. I’ve started the graphs in 2004 to make the weekly variations visible.
SOURCE
OI.v2 SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS system:
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
STATUS OF NEW BOOK
I’m making great progress with my new book The Ignored Driver of Global Climate. I’m about 85% done, I believe, based on what I think should be included. The following is the Table of Contents as it exists today. I’m presently at chapter “4.10 ENSO Versus the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)”. So far it’s 240+ pages long and includes 180+ illustrations. As you’ll note in the Table of Contents, there are a number of topics discussed in the book that I’ve not addressed in any blog posts to date.
And now the question that I need to ask: what topics do you want to see discussed that I’ve missed?
PRESENT TABLE OF CONTENTS OF THE IGNORED DRIVER OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
INTRODUCTION
Section 1 – A Description of El Niño and La Niña Events Using Cartoons
1.1 Preliminary Discussion of the ENSO Cartoons
1.2 The ENSO Cartoons
1.3 Recap of Section 1
Section 2 – A Few Preliminary Discussions
2.1 The Types of Graphs Presented
2.2 Linear Trends
2.3 How El Niño and La Niña EventsPresent Themselves in the Sea Surface Temperature Record
2.4 Our Primary ENSO Index is NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
2.5 How ENSO Events Are Presented in the Text
2.6 On the Use of Anomalies
2.7 Converting Monthly Absolute Data to Anomalies
2.8 Using the Model Mean of the IPCC’s Climate Models
2.9 Why We’ll Be Using Satellite-Based Sea Surface Temperature Data
2.10 Notes on Data Smoothing
2.11 Recap of Section 2
Section 3 – A More Detailed Discussion of ENSO Processes
3.1 A Quick Look at the Size of the Pacific Ocean
3.2 Pacific Trade Winds and Ocean Currents
3.3 Putting the Equatorial Pacific Cross Sections in Perspective
3.4 The ENSO-Neutral State of the Tropical Pacific
3.5 The Transition from ENSO-Neutral to El Niño
3.6 El Niño Phase
3.7 The Transition from El Niño to ENSO Neutral
3.8 La Niña Phase
3.9 The Recharge of Ocean Heat during the La Niña
3.10 Recap of Section 3
Section 4 – Additional ENSO Discussions
4.1 How El Niño Events Cause Surface Temperatures to Warm Outside of the Tropical Pacific
4.2 Central Pacific versus East Pacific El Niño Events
4.3 ENSO Indices
4.4 ENSO Indices Also Fail to Capture the Relative Strengths of ENSO Events
4.5 The Repeating Sequence of Primary and Secondary El Niño Events
4.6 A Look at How a Few More Tropical Pacific Variables Respond to ENSO
4.7 ENSO Events Run in Synch with the Annual Seasonal Cycle
4.8 Subsurface Temperature and Temperature Anomaly Variations in the Equatorial Pacific
4.9 An Introduction to the Delayed Oscillator Mechanism
4.10 ENSO Versus the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
4.11 Recap of Section 4
Section 5 – The Long-Term Impacts of Major ENSO Events on Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Section 6 – The Long-Term Impacts of Major ENSO Events on Global Land-Plus-Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies
Section 7 – The Long-Term Impacts of ENSO on Ocean Heat Content Anomalies
Section 8 – Failed Arguments Against ENSO as the Primary Driver of Global Surface Temperatures
Closing
ENSO CARTOONS?
If, after looking at the Table of Contents, you’re wondering about the “ENSO Cartoons” mentioned in Section 1, the following is a sample. There are 29 in Section 1. Why so many? I was looking at all of the websites that provide introductions to ENSO and noticed that most included only a couple of illustrations of the ENSO process. Readers there have to jockey between the text and the illustrations. Unfortunately, much of what’s discussed in the text at those websites is not illustrated. So I’m trying the cartoons which combine text and the illustrations, with hope that they will help readers understand the basics of the ENSO processes. Later, in Section 3, I go into much more detail, supporting the cartoons with data, to reinforce what was presented in the cartoons.
Sample “ENSO Cartoon”
MY FIRST BOOK
The IPCC claims that only the rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gases can explain the warming over the past 30 years. Satellite-based sea surface temperature disagrees with the IPCC’s claims. Most, if not all, of the rise in global sea surface temperature is shown to be the result of a natural process called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This is discussed in detail in my first book, If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?, which is available in pdf and Kindle editions. An overview of my book is provided in the above-linked post. Amazon also provides a Kindle preview that runs from the introduction through a good portion of Section 2. That’s about the first 15% of the book. Refer also to the introduction, table of contents, and closing in pdf form here.
Bob,
I’d like to see this question more fully explored. AFAIK, current understanding of the ENSO phenomenon is that – in terms of fluctuating surface and atmospheric temps – energy is transferred from the atmosphere to the deeper ocean in one phase, and from the ocean to atmosphere in the other. ENSO redistributes energy in-system.
As opposed to, say, solar variation, which is an external force that changes the amount of energy reaching the system, or major volcanic eruptions, which again change the amount of energy reaching the surface and lower troposphere, and similar with GHGs. Changes in these elements affect the total energy in the system, and can change the global climate as a result.
How does ENSO act in such a way to increase or decrease the energy in the whole system, as different to the view that ENSO shifts energy around?
As we know, local or regional effects may be different to global. UAH satellite data produces a global SS trend of 0.11C per decade for the satellite era. Eyeballing (not ideal, I know!) the ENSO anomaly time series, it appears that the trend is flat or slightly negative for the satellite period. Because it may be related to ENSO, and because PDO is often cited as the key process in the 30/60yr cycles I did a simple trend for PDO for the satellite period. It, too is negative, although I understand anomalies are adjusted to account for global warming. May be an argument there, but I would be asking the same question as with ENSO – how does the PDO increase or decrease the energy to the whole system?
Finally, a theory espousing ENSO or PDO-driven climate change would need to explain how these ocean/atmosphere systems are responsible for:
* decreasing stratospheric temps
* more warming at night than day (past 50 years)
* more warming of winters than summers
* less heat escaping to space
GHG warming theory fits with these obs. Does ENSO explain them, or must additional explanations be invoked?
Barry says: “AFAIK, current understanding of the ENSO phenomenon is that – in terms of fluctuating surface and atmospheric temps – energy is transferred from the atmosphere to the deeper ocean in one phase, and from the ocean to atmosphere in the other.”
Please identify what comical paper you’re describing that states anywhere that ENSO transfers energy “from the atmosphere to the deeper ocean.” I believe you’ve misunderstood whatever paper you’re thinking of. ENSO discharges heat from the ocean to the atmosphere through additional evaporation during an El Nino. It redistributes heat from the tropical Pacific toward the poles and into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, where it is carried poleward. Through teleconnections, ENSO causes ocean heat to be created in the tropics outside of the tropical Pacific and causes that heat to be distributed from the tropics to the poles.
barry says: “How does ENSO act in such a way to increase or decrease the energy in the whole system, as different to the view that ENSO shifts energy around?”
As I noted earlier in the comment you referenced, in the tropical Pacific, ENSO increases the amount of Ocean Heat Content by increasing trade wind strength during La Nina events, which decreases cloud cover, which, in turn, increases the amount of downward shortwave radiation available to warm the tropical Pacific. I’ve highlighted the La Nina events of 1973/74/75/76, 1995/96, and 1998/99/00/01 in the following graph:
http://i48.tinypic.com/1e1010.jpg
In the tropics outside of the Pacific, the sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content are increased during El Niño events through reductions in trade wind strength, which decreases the amount of upwelling and evaporation, raising both sea surface temperature and Ocean Heat Content. The warmed water is distributed poleward during the La Niña that follows.
In response to my statement, “there’s no evidence of CO2 forcing of sea surface temperatures globally during the satellite era—the last 30 years,” barry says: “As we know, local or regional effects may be different to global.”
I’ve divided the global sea surface temperature data into two (only two) logical subsets, both of which show NO evidence of anthropogenic effects. None whatsoever. Here they are again:
The sea surface temperature anomalies for the entire East Pacific Ocean from pole to pole (90S-90N, 180-80W) haven’t risen in 30 years:
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/3-east-pacific1.png
And the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans from pole to pole (the rest of the world, 90S-90N, 80W-180):
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/4-rest-of-world.png
Since the two parts show no evidence of anthropogenic warming, the whole shows no evidence of anthropogenic warming.
And that also clearly indicates that trying to use global sea surface temperature anomalies as a metric, without looking at the parts, is misleading.
barry says: “UAH satellite data produces a global SS trend of 0.11C per decade for the satellite era.”
The satellite-based datasets presented by UAH do not include sea surface temperature. The lowest altitude dataset is lower troposphere, which is about 3000 meters above the surface. You’re also using global anomalies again, which are a useless, misleading metric.
barry says: “Eyeballing (not ideal, I know!) the ENSO anomaly time series, it appears that the trend is flat or slightly negative for the satellite period.”
Why are you eyeballing? Don’t you believe the linear trend lines created by EXCEL in the graphs I linked in the comment you’re responding to? Here they are again. The trend of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies is negative or flat since 1900:
http://i45.tinypic.com/f28u9w.jpg
The trend of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies during the satellite era is negative.
http://i50.tinypic.com/2pooa3b.jpg
Barry says: “Because it may be related to ENSO, and because PDO is often cited as the key process in the 30/60yr cycles I did a simple trend for PDO for the satellite period.”
It’s irrelevant. The PDO is an aftereffect of ENSO, and the PDO is also impacted by the sea level pressure of the North Pacific, which is the reason for its addition decadal variability. The PDO also does not represent the sea surface temperature of the North Pacific. In fact, the PDO is inversely related to the sea surface temperature of the North Pacific on decadal timescales. So throw that away. Here’s a link to an introduction to the PDO:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/an-introduction-to-enso-amo-and-pdo-part-3/
There is a multidecadal component to ENSO, and this can be seen by smoothing the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies with a 121-month (11-year) filter:
http://i48.tinypic.com/eg672g.jpg
Barry says: “Finally, a theory espousing ENSO or PDO-driven climate change…”
I haven’t presented a PDO-driven climate change theory. You introduced the PDO, which was an error on YOUR part, not mine. In fact, I have been stating for 3 years that there’s no mechanism through which the PDO can drive global surface temperatures. So don’t go back to SkepticalScience saying that I’m promoting PDO-driven climate change.
But back to your closing question, barry: It was, “Finally, a theory espousing ENSO or PDO-driven climate change would need to explain how these ocean/atmosphere systems are responsible for:
“* decreasing stratospheric temps
“* more warming at night than day (past 50 years)
“* more warming of winters than summers
“* less heat escaping to space.”
“GHG warming theory fits with these obs. Does ENSO explain them, or must additional explanations be invoked?”
And I’ll ask you to itemize which of those observations pertain to sea surface temperature, since that’s the topic of discussion. That aside, you’ve failed to note which of those symptoms of “GHG warming” are also symptoms of a general warming regardless of the source of warming. The atmospheric fingerprints of warming, whether the warming is from greenhouse gases, increases in TSI or ENSO, are very similar. If you like, I can provide you with a link to a RealClimate post that pretty much states what I just wrote. And you’ve failed to note which are also symptoms of warming from other anthropogenic causes, such as land-use change and urban heat island effect.
In summary, in your comment, you’ve illustrated for everyone reading this thread your misunderstandings about some unidentified piece of scientific literature, about ENSO, about the PDO, and about satellite-based sea surface temperature data, and you’ve attempted and failed to redirect the topic of discussion. You’re not doing so good. Maybe you need to back and do some more research. There’s a wonderful tool called the KNMI Climate Explorer. It may help:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
Y’all come back now, ya’ hear.
rogerknights: Thanks for your suggestions so far. I really like “Who Turned Up The Heat?” with a subtitle of “A Data-based Discussion of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and its Long-term Aftereffects”. On the cover there’d be a cartoon by Josh with Mother Nature scolding her son El Nino.
rogerknights: I just check Amazon. There’s a childer’s book titled “Who Turned Up the Heat – Eco-Pig Explains Global Warming.” Darn. Don’t want to be associated with an Eco-pig. So how about… “Did You Turn Up the Heat?” and the subtitle of “ The Ignored Cause of Global Warming: El Niño-Southern Oscillation”.
oops. That should read children’s book, not childer’s book.
Stephen Wilde says: “Absolutely right but begs the question as to why, during the 20th century (and possibly since the LIA) successive periods of El Nino dominance have led to upward stepping in atmospheric temperatures.with the ocean heat content rising overall despite the strong El Nino discharge events.”
OHC data is only available since the 1950s so you’re making lots of assumption. Also, El Nino events only discharge heat from the tropical Pacific. They can cause ocean heat to rise elsewhere. The NODC’s OHC data is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
As always, thanks, Anthony.
Bob, thanks for the response.
The claim of a gradual long term decrease in global atmospheric pressure (not SH as I had thought) was in this Theresa Cole thesis “An acceleration in New Zealand’s sea level record?” which is linked to in Andi Cockcroft’s guest post (below). The relevant graph is shown on page 117 fig 5.8. of that thesis.
wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/02/so-dinosaurs-could-fly-part-i
2 Jun 2012 – A look at diminishing atmospheric pressure.
The question I tried to ask is likely too dumb for words but it struck me that ENSO measures (ssts for example) seem to be set against flat baselines – that is wiggle above (positive) or wiggle below (negative). If atmospheric pressure is indeed falling gradually then perhaps the baseline should reflect that. Would for example, the effects of el nino or la nina be amplified or dampened by the changes in average atmospheric pressure?
In any event, armed with the ‘knowledge’ of this purported drop in pressure, can you think of any effects this could have?
Sorry for any confusion Bob, but for lateintheday see my warofthewolds question earlier. I’m having a bit of bother with logging in properly.
Titles can’t be copyrighted—and I doubt that a children’s book would overlap with yours. But you could just tweak the title thusly:
What Turned up the Heat?
That last phrase has given me an idea:
Sunny Boy: El Niño, the Unsuspected Climate Change Culprit
“El Niño” isn’t as accurate as “El Niño-Southern Oscillation”—but a little inaccuracy is the price that has to be paid for the offsetting advantages of brevity and personalization (“boy”) of the son in the envisaged cartoon by Josh, to warming via the pun on sonny/sunny, and to a “culprit”—which in turn ties in with Josh’s cartoon. (I envisage “Sunny” with his thumb on the thermostat when his Mom catches him—he is looking guiltily over his shoulder at her. His head is sun-like.)
“The Unsuspected Climate Change Culprit” is 1,000,000 times smoother and slicker than “the Ignored Cause of Global Warming.”
You could add a flatfooted sub-subtitle that spells things out. I just read a book with two colons in its title (i.e., a sub-subtyitle). It’s legal. For instance, it could be, “El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) & Global Warming.” But the title and first subtitle should be a clever “teaser” for sales-appeal, and the title should be brief, for easy citation.
Here’s another one that I think is even better:
Presumed Innocent: El Niño, the Unsuspected Climate Change Culprit
A newborn “boy” of course would be presumed innocent, the same way the wife was presumed innocent in the famous novel of that name. Your title’s allusion to the way the “investigators” in that novel overlooked her and chased wrong clues would be slickly suggestive. (Again, a sub-subtitle would be needed to prevent misinterpretation.)
Josh’s cartoon would need to be different. “Sunny Boy” could be off in the background looking “innocently” up in the air while Sherlock or Plods with a magnifying glass & a bloodhound chased false thumbprints and footprints.
OK Bob, but what is driving it? Or is your hypothesis is that there is no long term driving at all, and that what went up (in El Nino decades) will come down (in La Nina decades)?
lateintheday says: “…it struck me that ENSO measures (ssts for example) seem to be set against flat baselines – that is wiggle above (positive) or wiggle below (negative).”
The ENSO index you’re referring to, NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, are calculated by subtracting the average monthly temperatures for the period of 1971-2000 from the measured sea surface temperatures. The average monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures that are used as the “baseline” for anomalies exhibit a seasonal cycle. They’re warmer in May than they are in December. See the blue curve.
http://i49.tinypic.com/ip1on6.jpg
The next figure illustrates the annual cycle in the base-years versus the sea surface temperatures for the NINO3.4 region for the period of Jan 1995 through January 2005 (sorry about the other data in the graph but I’m using it to make another point in my book):
http://i45.tinypic.com/2yyz0hc.jpg
So that’s why the data wiggles above and below, but they aren’t set against flat baselines. We want a single base period from which to determine anomalies. You don’t want it shifting in time as NOAA has done with their Oceanic NINO Index (ONI).
Back to your question: You asked, “Would for example, the effects of el nino or la nina be amplified or dampened by the changes in average atmospheric pressure?”
Changes in sea level pressure are known to impact how heat is distributed poleward within the atmosphere and ocean. But again, you’d want sea level pressure anomalies and sea surface temperatures established from fixed base periods for comparison purposes, otherwise the changes in the base periods would influence the variations in the data.
many thanks Bob.
PS: Just above, I wrote, ““Sunny Boy” could be off in the background looking “innocently” up in the air….”
This innocent attitude could be underlined with a halo over his head. But it could simultaneously be undermined by giving him a slight smirk and/or a tiny pair of fangs and/or horns.
PPS: Sunny Boy could be shown also with heat waves (wavy vertical lines) rising from his head. Mother Nature could be wiping sweat from her brow with a hanky and looking at a thermometer.
PPPS: Instead of Sunny Boy, the term Bad Boy could be used, thus:
Presumed Innocent: El Niño, the Unsuspected Bad Boy of Global Warming
John B says: “OK Bob, but what is driving it?”
Please clarify your question. I’m not sure what “it” is.