From NCDC’s spring report here
More record warmth as scientists warn of global tipping point – CNN.com
— It’s hot out there. But this time, it’s more than idle watercooler talk, according to weather scientists.
At the same time the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center has released a report noting that this spring in the United States has been the warmest since record-keeping began in 1895, a group of scientists has published a paper in the journal Nature warning that the planet is approaching a critical tipping point because of climate and other factors.
Rampant population growth and changes to the environment caused by humans, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities, threaten to cause an abrupt and unpredictable shift in the global ecosystem, 22 scientists from five countries said in their paper.
In its report issued Thursday, the climate data center said the average U.S. temperature between March and May was 57.1 degrees, 5.2 degrees above the long-term average from 1901 to 2000.
While May was only the second-warmest on record, it was still in the top third for monthly average temperatures, marking 12 consecutive months with temperatures in that range, said Jake Crouch, a NOAA climate scientist.
“For that to happen 12 times in a row in a random circumstance is one in 540,000,” he said.
Globally, NOAA reported in May that the average temperature in April was 1.17 degrees warmer than the average from the past century, making it the fifth-warmest April since at least 1880.
It was the 326th consecutive month that global temperatures exceeded the 20th-century average, NOAA said.
The warm spring weather in the United States was partially the result of the waning La Niña, a pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific that tends to help direct the high-level jet stream and influence weather patterns nationwide.
But it was also partially the result of long-term climate change, Crouch said.
“The pattern we’ve been in for the last 12 months is exactly what we would expect in climate change,” he said.
…
A shift in the biosphere is possible by 2100 if nothing is done to better predict changes and act upon them, said Anthony D. Barnosky, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley and lead author on the Nature article.
“If we do nothing, I personally think we hit this tipping point,” Barnosky said Friday. “It means the world will be very different, losing biodiversity and (affecting where) species live in particular places.”
Full story here
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It is also interesting and a bit humorous to note this table at NCDC, where the word “coolest” is verboten.
For example:
| Nome, AK | 9.3 °F | 16.1 °F | -6.8 °F | -1.5σ | 99th warmest of 104 yrs |
5th coolest would be the way I would describe that.
Yes it was a warm spring. But not warm everywhere. But was it really driven by AGW, and was it “The pattern we’ve been in for the last 12 months is exactly what we would expect in climate change,” ?
This is the same sort of logic that is employed as we saw during the Russian Heat Wave of 2010.
One spot on the globe becomes the focal point and “proof” that AGW is happening. This gets touted in the media. Then later, a study comes out saying AGW wasn’t the main driver.
NOAA on the Russian heat wave: blocking high, not global warming
But that doesn’t get much attention because it doesn’t have a gloom and doom quality for MSM News.
But this was found to be based on a synoptic pattern, basically weather noise. This spring in the USA is no different. Even the father of global warming, Jim Hansen says the same thing: (hat tip to Chris Horner and the CEI FOIA efforts for us being able to see this email)
And here in the article excepted above, Jake Crouch, CNN, and other MSM outlets aren’t even talking about a full year, just three months.
“If it bleeds it leads”, was never more true.
Some graphs: (thanks to Joe D’Aleo, all data NCDC data)
The state monthly records through the end of the 2009.. This depicts the 12 monthly records for the 50 states (600 data points). There were likely March heat records set in some states and perhaps some other months so the 2010s will show and take away from some prior years.
The 1930s stands out as the hottest decade, the 1910s and 1950s were second, 1990s third and 1980s fourth. This decade doesn’t rank although it is early.
All time cold records look like this.
It seems the climate was much more variable, with more extremes in the 1930’s.
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Meanwhile, in Sweden we had the coldest May since 1928. Oddly enough, the media didn’t relate it to Global Warming when reporting that the max temp had bern as low as 6C…
Oh for the purists and those who wish to see the above percentages add up to 100% take the 0.6% value I added to the original 2.4% of urban and area (to total 3%) and subtract a few tenths of a percent equally from arable land, pastures, forests and other and it will total 100%. This will probably be the mechanism for growth that will occur in the next 40 or 50 years as the 2.4% increases to ? Maybe 5%?
Bernie
ANYTHING is compatible and a sign of climate change/AGW. that’s the beauty of it… LOL
I find it quite entertaining to compare readings from 150, 60, or even 30 or 10 years ago to that of which we obtain today. Oh the pain, or is it entertainment?
Really, can you truly compare it ?
LazyTeenager says:
June 9, 2012 at 6:24 pm
“I don’t know if the frequency of blocking highs is affected by global warming or not. I do know there is some evidence and argument that less arctic ice is allowing more cold weather systems to penetrate south at greater frequency.”
==
Indeed you know zip about atmospheric circulation, but you parrot anything to support your ignorance, such as warm air displace colder, denser air… At this level, go back to highschool.
LazyTeenager;
Your wrong. It’s the temperature trend at each station that is important. It’s actual local average temperature is irrelevant.>>>>
NOT! At -40C, it takes 2,89 watts/m2 to raise the temperature one degree. At +40C, it takes 6.99 watts/m2 to raise the temperature one degree. If CO2 increases create a measurable energy imbalance, then the temperature range of the weather stations lost versus the average temperature range most certainly IS important. One degree in a cold place and one degree in a warm place mean two totaly different things from an energy balance perspective.
Which you ought to understand given that you lectured me in another thread to the effect that CO2 does NOT change the energy balance of the earth system over all.
@lazyteenager
I am not sure what the article says but the Nature Abstract indicates that these folks are talking about 43% of the planet’s land biomes which I interpret as also being land surface percentage. It will reach 50% in a few years (their graphics can’t be blown up and I am not getting any younger!).
Bernie
LazyTeenager: “Your wrong. It’s the temperature trend at each station that is important. It’s actual local average temperature is irrelevant.”
That would be true if there was a thermometer reporting all the time from the same location every year.
Say you choose Moskva from the GIS station selector. 18 out of 30 have data to 2012. All with various start dates. If the dropped stations had a shallower, flat or cooling trend, and the only ones left in GIS have a warming trend, you can manipulate the trend.
LazyTeenager says:
June 9, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Mark Wagner says:
June 9, 2012 at 6:00 pm
43% of the planet’s land is cities or farmland? Geez. Just look at a map!
———–
“Geeez just read the article. It’s not 43% of the total land area.”
You are absolutely right, it says “nearly” 43%. You make a convincing case.
Don’t pay attention to these anti-science blowhards, the real physics say otherwise. The global temperature seems ready to tank within the next few years, 2012 should be our last ‘warm’ year.
LazyTeenager says:
June 9, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Oh, you mean the “trends” the NOAA was caught recently “cooling the past” to make today’s temperatures more “trendy” to suit your nefarious purposes?
THOSE trends? (and that’s far from the first time temperature records have been trend-adjusted; it’s the norm rather than the exception.)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/06/noaas-national-climatic-data-center-caught-cooling-the-past-modern-processed-records-dont-match-paper-records/
Sounds like you owe everybody an apology for supporting data manipulation, Lazy. That’s no way to run a science show, unless you’re just there to deceive and bilk the crowd.
SAID HANRAHAN by John O’Brien
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.
“It’s looking crook,” said Daniel Croke;
“Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad.”
“It’s dry, all right,” said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
“It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt.”
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
“The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
“They’re singin’ out for rain,” he said,
“And all the tanks are dry.”
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
“There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass.”
“If rain don’t come this month,” said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak –
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If rain don’t come this week.”
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
“We want an inch of rain, we do,”
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke “maintained” we wanted two
To put the danger past.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o’-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain doesn’t stop.”
And stop it did, in God’s good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
“There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
Rampant population growth and changes to the environment caused by humans, including the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of nearly 43% of the planet’s land to farms or cities, threaten to cause an abrupt and unpredictable shift in the global ecosystem, 22 scientists from five countries said in their paper.
What that says is that there are 22 scientists from five countries who have either never gone anywhere by airplane or, if they have, been curious enough to look out the window.
Earlier today, in a posting about a related topic (the “Santa Ana” winds we had here in eastern Nebraska today (yeah, I know, wrong time of year( I said:
LazyTeenager says:
June 9, 2012 at 6:24 pm
cui bono says:
June 9, 2012 at 11:28 am
Can anyone explain the mechanism whereby AGW creates more blocking highs? /sarc
———————
So you assume there isn’t one. Bad idea to make assumptions based on ignorance. And then you make a smart-arsed comment based on that ignorance.
And you — as evidenced by your smart-arsed comment — are assuming there *is* one, even though there’s no evidence of that.
I have a problem with the way NOAA/NCDC deems a weather event to be “extreme” and uses this to declaring the climate of the US to be getting more extreme: they treat a very high temperature anomaly for January the same as they would one for July, worse yet, they treat strong warming of daily mins in winter the same as they would a similar change in daily maxes in July. But the truth is that only the latter in each case could reasonably be said to be a move of the climate towards more extremes, and even then only assuming the former, in each case, wasn’t happening at least as much. The truth, which NOAA’s “Climate Extremes Index” doesn’t recognize, is that the warming of the US in the last thirty years was highly concentrated on the coldest days of the year, indicating that the temperature extremes in the US have, in net, gone down. And now they will take our rare but natural temperature spike in recent months and it is a HUGE spike in the “Climate Extremes Index” already.
Bernie McCune says:
June 9, 2012 at 8:07 pm
“I am not sure what the article says but the Nature Abstract indicates that these folks are talking about 43% of the planet’s land biomes which I interpret as also being land surface percentage. It will reach 50% in a few years (their graphics can’t be blown up and I am not getting any younger!).”
I do not see that in the abstract provided free from Nature. But one of the co-authors, Nick Matzke, said on the Panda’s Thumb:
“Humans are also engaging in massive external forcing of ecosystems, first by direct conversion (43% of the Earth’s land surface has already been converted to agricultural use) and second by raising the average global temperature, which forces species to either adapt, migrate, or go extinct. Raising the global CO2 level has effects beyond temperature change, notably raising the acidity of the ocean.”
http://pandasthumb.org/archives/2012/06/predicting-a-st.html
They may be right, if they include such use as 2 cows per section grazing land, tree farms, unused fields, and the occasional poppy picking in the Himalayas.
Sounds like a scary story to frighten children, not all agricultural activities contribute to (wink wink) naughty forcing of ecosystems. Neither does all agriculture force species to do undesirable naughty things to the ecosystem.
QuantumPhysicistPhil says
Don’t pay attention to these anti-science blowhards, the real physics say otherwise. The global temperature seems ready to tank within the next few years, 2012 should be our last ‘warm’ year.
Henry@Phil
Phill, it seems you have a source similar to mine. Let me know which is yours?
I can give you better than 2012. I say we are already cooling since the beinning of this century. And I don’t trust the satellite values anymore. (precision? accuracy? error? calibration ? representation of all the earth?)
I can give you the development of warming/cooling over time.
See here:
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
Note that the sample is well balanced by latitude and 70/30 sea – inland
Personally I think the climate is on this curve:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
Study this curve carefully and you will see that around 1994 temps went down (negative/decline) as correctly predicted by me. However, Orssengo thought the max would be at around 2000. That means his curve must be shifted a bit to the left.
Is Orssengo still alive?
Overall, we cooled by about 0.2 degrees K since 2000.
That does not yet look like a lot. In fact, showing the difference between the walls inside my house of 0.5 degrees C, my son laughed at me worrying about the 0.2 degree cooling. But remember, this is just a global average. In places like Kimberley (South Africa) the average temps. fell by as much as 1.5 sdegrees C since the beginning of this century. It shows when you fly over Kimberley. It looks more desolate now than ever before. The problem is that the cooling is not linear. It is on a curve and it is headed further down.
Maxima are falling now by about 0.2 degrees K per annum (r2 = 0.997) and the average temps are falling by almost 0.1 degree per annum (r2 = 0.95)
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
We are heading for disaster (i.e. real climate change due to natural circumstances ) and these clowns all over the place keep telling us earth is still warming.
Judging from the Record High graphs, I’d say they haven’t got around to “adjusting” that particular data set. Yet.
Bill;
Since AGW lives exclusively in GCMs, there may very well be a mechanism therein which emulates causation of blocking highs.
Lower elevation and their higher temperatures, are common since 1990 in the data. The Andes, e.g., have almost vanished. And LT, no, the “trend” is not immune, since these are grouped into blocs, and each bloc suffers from the data corruption individually. (Not that “averaging” of temperatures is a valid procedure in the first place.)
Please send some of your “excessive” heat over here to Europe please. Currently life is cold, wet and miserable.
Glenn says:
June 9, 2012 at 11:16 pm
I do not see that in the abstract provided free from Nature. But one of the co-authors, Nick Matzke, said on the Panda’s Thumb:
“Humans are also engaging in massive external forcing of ecosystems, first by direct conversion (43% of the Earth’s land surface has already been converted to agricultural use)…”
Well, if he’s not counting that part of the Earth’s surface that’s desert, forest, mountains, double- and triple canopy jungle, tundra, prairie, or swampland — nah. Still doesn’t add up.
And just to ballance things up, the city of Christchurch here in New Zealand set a new “low high,” last week for any day in the last 130 years since records have been kept there. 0.4 degrees C. They aslo copped a great amount of ‘glowbull warming’ that closed schools and roads as well as causing power loses to thousands of homes in the South Island. Some weather analysts here have predicted a repeat of the almost nation wide snow events similar to that experienced last August in New Zealand. That would put things on a par with events in the 1930’s.
Cheers
Coops
As we’re always being told, the US is only 2% of the world, so is insignificant.