Well, that didn't take long to run the "climate is severe weather" scare story

The tornadic outbreak in Dallas is barely over and already there’s a rush to scare the public over non-existent links between tornadoes and climate.

The Daily Caller reports:

On the Tuesday broadcast of “CNN Newsroom,” CNN meteorologist Alexandra Steele declared that tornadoes plowing through the Dallas-Fort Worth area were brought on by climate change.

Steele, formerly of The Weather Channel, also predicted that more extreme weather is on its way.

“It really is [such a strange spring],” Steele said. “That’s kind of the climate change we are seeing. You know, extremes are kind of ruling the roost and really what we are seeing, more become the norm.”

“CNN Newsroom” host Carol Costello said it made her “afraid” about what is in store for next spring.

“It might be unnaturally cold,” said Costello. Steele agreed that future weather would be less predictable.

“This global warming is really kind of a misnomer,” Steele said. “It’s global climate change. So the colds are colder and warms are warmer and severe is more severe.”

Source – The Daily Caller: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/03/cnn-meteorologist-todays-tornadoes-are-climate-change-we-are-seeing

Time to invoke Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.’s handy button:

With this post I am creating a handy bullshit button on this subject (pictured above). Anytime that you read claims that invoke disasters loss trends as an indication of human-caused climate change, including  the currently popular “billion dollar disasters” meme, you can simply call “bullshit” and point to the IPCC SREX report.

A few quotable quotes from the report (from Chapter 4):

  • “There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change”
  • “The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados”
  • “The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses”

The report even takes care of tying up a loose end that has allowed some commentators to avoid the scientific literature:

“Some authors suggest that a (natural or anthropogenic) climate change signal can be found in the records of disaster losses (e.g., Mills, 2005; Höppe and Grimm, 2009), but their work is in the nature of reviews and commentary rather than empirical research.”

A few Notes:

La Ninas are often far more costly than El Ninos  (PDF)

La Nina of 2010 2nd strongest (PDF)

During El Niño the jet stream is oriented from west to east across the southern portion of the United States. Thus, this region becomes more susceptible to severe weather outbreaks. During La Niña the jet stream and severe weather is likely to be farther north.

Note the collision zone in the US southeast during La Niña patterns. 1974 was a La Niña year too.

And of course there’s this from The folly of linking tornado outbreaks to “climate change”:

Historically, there have been many tornado outbreaks that occurred well before climate change was on anyone’s radar.  Here’s a few:

1908 Southeast tornado outbreak 324 fatalities, ≥1,720 injuries

1920 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak ≥380 fatalities, ≥1215 injuries

1925 Tri-State tornado ≥747 fatalities, ≥2298 injuries

1932 Deep South tornado outbreak  ≥330 fatalities, 2145 injuries

1952 Arkansas-Tennessee tornado outbreak 208 fatalities

1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak 256 fatalities

April 3-4 1974 Super Outbreak 315 fatalities

All of these occurred before “climate change” was even on the political radar. What caused those if “global warming” is to blame? The real cause is La Niña, and as NOAAwatch.gov indicates on their page with the helpful meter, we are in a La Niña cycle of ocean temperature in the Pacific.

I recommend reading my essay: Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective.

I also recommend: 2011 US Tornado Year Analyzed – no trend indication, still below 1974 for strong to violent tornadoes

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April 3, 2012 7:55 pm

Theo Goodwin says:
April 3, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Trailers flying in a tornado is nothing unusual. The trailers were empty. Mobile homes do it all the time when they are not empty.

I’m thinking, by the time they reached 500′ feet up they were probably empty … hitting a truckstop midday is not likely to find all the trailers empty.
I don’t think it was the “Flying-J Truckstop” either … but it could have been (I think it was):
Flying J Travel Plaza
7425 Bonnie View Road, Dallas, TX 75241

See also this post from above.
.

April 3, 2012 8:04 pm

Seconding the notion again–no climate change required; living in tornado ally, it is hard to forget. Still, people have short memories. Nothing is getting more extreme. I can already feel the heat, but this year is promising to be a repeat of last. The heat and the tornadoes will reduce again in the next few years. That is the way it always happens, and always will. We have significant tornadoes here every year. (‘Here’ is all of tornado ally, most of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc.) Does no one recall one of Texas’ claims to fame is the most tornadoes of any state? The fact is, conditions this season will be prime, just like last year, but the thing to remember is we get this EVERY YEAR! We always have weather systems roll through that make for the right shear and rotation, and we have wall clouds lower, and funnels drop. If it happens where you are, you better have good cover. If you are looking at an EF5, like Gary England famously said 03 May 1999, “Get underground, or you are going to die.” (Approximately) I like to think of that one as the biggest ever, but there have been bigger tornadoes by width, ones that ran longer on the ground, leaving bigger trials, ones with more rain, ones with more everything, and nearly all of them happened before any of us were even born. Get over yourself, people. You cannot change the climate, for better or for worse.

TomRude
April 3, 2012 8:48 pm

“This global warming is really kind of a misnomer,” Steele said. “It’s global climate change. So the colds are colder and warms are warmer and severe is more severe.”
LOL if this is what we observe, then the atmosphere is not reacting to warming but to entering a colder period and that change in climate is as opposite as AGW CO2 as you can find. Leroux was right from the start.
http://ddata.over-blog.com/xxxyyy/2/32/25/79/Leroux-Global-and-Planetary-Change-1993.pdf

Ian H
April 3, 2012 8:51 pm

I’m surprised we don’t see more of this. Weather people have an incentive to play up the significance of weather events. In a world where big scary things might happen with the weather, the TV weather guy becomes more important. Weather presenters have as much incentive as climate scientists to overhype the dangers of climate change. I’m actually astonished that so few have succumbed to the temptation and joined the dark side.

Andrew
April 3, 2012 8:55 pm

Anthony: surprised not to see mention of Alan Turing FRS in the timeline of major communications events in your essay:
“Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective.”
Alan turing is widely recognised, and rightly so, as the “father of computer science and artificial intelligence” (as quoted from that veritable fountain of knowledge: Wikipedia 4/4/12).
Without dwelling on his pivotal contribution to the defeat of Nazism in WWII (his contribution to the breaking of the code used by the German Enigma machine is considered to have shortened the war by many months if not years) the role of computers in all forms of modern communications and, of course, in the analysis of weather, weather forecasting and understanding climate, is unarguable.
He was also an FRS when that onced-esteemed society had its scientific integrity intact.
May I suggest that Alan Turing get a mention in any future re-write you do of your timeline or your essay…?

SteveSadlov
April 3, 2012 8:58 pm

Looking at the ENSO meter, we’ve not been in neutral territory for very long, and the system response has lots of momentum to sort out. No surprise that we’re seeing some bad storms this year. We’ll see if we give ’74 a run for its money but it seems unlikely at this point.

Baa Humbug
April 3, 2012 10:06 pm

Just like we get more severe weather during Autumn and Spring (because they are the ‘changeover’ periods where there is more chance of cold systems clashing with warm systems) we get more severe weather during the changeover of the 35.8 year cycle.
More severe weather in the mid-late 70’s when we changed from cold to warm. More severe weather now that we are changing from warm to cold.
It’ll all settle down once the Sun reaches maximum and starts to wind down.

old44
April 3, 2012 11:04 pm

I’ll bet Dorothy and Toto didn’t know they were victims of AGW.

April 3, 2012 11:24 pm

Weather extremes are directly proportional to the amount of money flowing into media & political coffers from the billionaires at EDF.

Kelvin Vaughan
April 4, 2012 12:53 am

The Earth’s hottest temperature is 112°C cooler than the Moon’s. Earth’s coldest temperature is 84°C warmer than the Moon’s. The atmosphere both cools and warms the Earth. It seems to be getting less effective at doing both.

NovaReason
April 4, 2012 1:23 am

So… if you guys are posting about a [] button, does that mean that we can now use the word [] in our comment posts?
Reply: Not if this moderator is making one of his rare come-back appearances ~ctm

Bob Layson
April 4, 2012 2:52 am

There is nothing more usual than unusual weather – except the usual kind.

E.M.Smith
Editor
April 4, 2012 3:35 am

AlGore was on some talking head show tonight and was overusing the extreme weather meme. Listing to him was painful, but clearly he’s on board with the ‘all weather indicates climate change / global warming / climate chaos / …’
Oh, btw, it was warmer than this year just before Hansen starts his thermometers:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/03/31/year-without-a-winter/
http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html
Minnesota’s “Year Without a Winter”
1877-1878
The Winter of 1997-1998 will go down in history of one of the warmest ever. However, the Winter of 1877-1878 was definitely the mildest of the post-settlement era.
State Climatologist, Jim Zandlo prepared the following summary of the 1877-1878 Winter in the aftermath of another mild Winter, 1986-1987. Responding to questions resulting from that modern-day temperate Winter, Jim’s investigation shows us that nothing is new under the sun!

Dr. Paul Mackey
April 4, 2012 4:40 am

“This global warming is really kind of a misnomer,” Steele said. “It’s global climate change. So the colds are colder and warms are warmer and severe is more severe.”
So the average won’t change then.

dtbronzich
April 4, 2012 5:20 am

old44 says:
April 3, 2012 at 11:04 pm
I’ll bet Dorothy and Toto didn’t know they were victims of AGW.
Wouldn’t that actually be the Wicked Witch of the East? Dorothy and Toto were magically transported to a mystical land of talking trees, living scarecrows and wonderful adventures, whereas the Wicked Witch of the East had a house dropped on her, as well as having her silver slippers stolen. (In Baum’s book they were silver, not ruby.)

April 4, 2012 6:08 am

I actually am a believer in climate change. After all, if one looks at the proxy record for the last 5 million years, the climate was approximately stable until some 3 million years ago, then the mean temperature started to decline, then the planet entered a real ice age perhaps 2 million years ago or a bit more, then it began to exhibit bistability around 1 million years ago, and for the last 400-500 thousand years the bistability has been pronounced with a warm phase almost as warm as the standard stable temperature was 3 million years ago, although distinctly cooler than it was 5 million years ago.
In that last 500,000 year period, the Earth has spent 80% of the time in cold/ice phase with substantial glaciation, around 10% of the time in warm/interglacial phase, 10% of the time in multi-thousand-year transitions or partial warmings or coolings. In the current interglacial (the Holocene) temperatures have fluctuated by as much as 2K between the Holocene Optimum (when it was 0.5-1 K warmer than it is now) and the LIA minimum about 1-1.5K cooler — not including the Younger Dryas excursion which was a thousand year hiatus of cooling, drought, and climate catastrophe that interrupted the initial warming of the Holocene. Over the last 1000 years alone temperatures have fluctuated by well over 1K, although perhaps a bit less than 2K max to min. Sounds like climate change to me.
I’m a moderate believer in anthropogenic climate change. Or rather I’m a firm believer that some moderate fraction of the temperature variations observed and climate pattern variations observed is anthropogenic. After all, there is substantial evidence and a sound physical argument that this is the case. The evidence is difficult to quantify, though, because we still lack a comprehensive theory that can explain the baseline temperature and its substantial natural variability. Lacking such a theory, attempts to assign “anthropogenic blame” for “climate change” are, as you note, so much bullshit.
However, I do suspect that we are preparing to enter a period where Earth’s temperatures do become more polarized, with the poles colder and the equator warmer not as the Earth warms, but as it cools. Since severe weather is indeed associated with with “warmth” per se but with temperature deltas, this may eventually produce a measurable change in frequency of severe events, although again it will be difficult to detect (to say the least) given our lack of a comprehensive baseline — at most 50 odd years of weather satellites, more like 30 or 40 of satellites teamed with weather radar and accurate recording and reporting — in some parts of the land surface of the Earth and a tiny fraction of the water surface (in the case of radar).
That doesn’t excuse alarmism, or citing climate change as if it is all anthropogenic. As noted, it will be difficult to impossible to tell if the climate is changing at all, let alone what the proximate causes of that change are, lacking a comprehensive theory and a long baseline of modern-era measurements. Perhaps in 30-50 years (giving us close to a century of decent instrumental observations). In the meantime, the weather is even more changeable than the climate, and its variations mean even less. We’ve had an extraordinarily warm spring in NC (after an unusually cold and snowy winter last year) just as we’ve had before and no doubt will have again. Extreme weather events happen literally every day, somewhere on the planet, making it easy for alarmists to find one to neurose over and blame on Civilization.
In the end, the Earth’s climate is what it is and will do what it does, mostly unforced by human hand. The short-term prediction is cooling, not warming, at least until the albedo goes back down.
rgb

Jerry
April 4, 2012 9:13 am

Springtime in Texas just happens cartoon.
http://www.xkcd.com/1037/

Frank K.
April 4, 2012 1:50 pm

Here’s what the CNN weather reporter person(!) REALLY meant to say:
“This global warming is really kind of a misnomer…”
It’s global climate insanity! So the unprecedented is MORE unprecedented and catastrophes are MORE catastrophic and the alarmists are MORE alarming and … ”
/sarc

Mike
April 4, 2012 6:41 pm

Reply to _Jim, You are correct. That location was actually 3 trucking businesses. The Schneider Yard that had the flying trailers. Right next door going west is a truck wash and right on the corner of Bonnie and the serivice road is a Flying J/Pilot. The Schneider yard is a “Trailer Park”… Just a different kind of trailer than the typical reference to a Trailer Park. Oh, if anyone was wondering how high those trailers were flying, each of them is 53′ long. So, how many trailer lengths up in the air were they? 3, 4, 5 maybe 6 trailer lengths? I don’t know but they were definitely pretty high.