At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
John Goetz says:
August 28, 2011 at 2:53 am
“Ah, the good ‘ol New York Times could not pass up the opportunity to blame this on AGW:”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/us/28climate.html?_r=1&hp
__________________________________________________________
If the editors at the New York Times had a clue, they would have understood that by linking this over- the- top hurricane alarm with the AGW meme, people will have even more reason to think that Chicken Little has been running the show.
My cats [….] bigger winds than this.
Rain is falling here in New Hampshire this morning. No wind. I report more later.
John Goetz says:
August 28, 2011 at 2:53 am
“Ah, the good ‘ol New York Times could not pass up the opportunity to blame this on AGW:”
Then we should be happy that global warming = weak hurricanes!
By the way, New York will be out of the rain bands later today on the dry southern part of the storm. Let the explanations for the botched intensity forecasts begin!
I remember hurricane Gloria back in 1985 that came right over Long Island NY with strong Cat 1 to weak Cat 2 rating and Cat 3 gusts when it hit Long Island. The storm surge was high enough to lift some of the floating docks in Huntington Harbor off there supporting piles. and blew a raft of sail boats on shore. I was on a mooring in the harbor, had put out an anchor and doubled all the lines, and suffered no damage at all. That was quite a bit stronger than Irene. Where was AGW?
Murray
This whole hurricane hype is so utterly stupid and hyped. How can any president refer to the hurricane as `epic’……. relates to credability. And I say this as a Canadian so don’t care whether he is a republican or democrat. Fear fear.
Irene hits the Big Apple … and is immediately downgraded to a Tropical Sorm (65 mph).
The after-action report will be interesting … but it’ll never make the news … they’ll be busy chasing after some other over-hyped events.
Catcracking says:
August 27, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Let us know how you (and the island) make out – I have old family ties to LBI. My grandparent’s summer place in Harvey Cedars withstood several hurricanes before getting destroyed by the March 1962 nor’easter.
Can a nation of narcissistic nebbishes long endure?
What is the definition of “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS”?
How long time must the wind blow before it can be labeled “sustained”.
I just read an interview with a Swedish meteorologist who compared the wind speed with a strong Swedish storm some years back and she said that 33 m/s is a lot stronger than the average speed of Gudrun. I have however a hunch that she is comparing apples and pears, anyone who can shed light on the definitions?
Nick says:
August 28, 2011 at 3:21 am
Because evacuation plans are made before the conditions at impact are known, duh. I am not a fan of mandatory evacuations, I’d be happy if the were made recommended and that 911 calls from those areas be shunted off to an answering machine to protect the lives of rescuers.
As for the storm surge threat, I mentioned Long Beach Island. I’m not sure what the wind conditions were like there in March 1962, but Wikipedia notes 60 mph (96 km/h) winds and 7.6 m (25 ft) waves struck Ocean City, Maryland. While the storm did stall offshore for a couple days, LBI was cut through in three places. I’ll have more to say about it in March.
From the Sunday Washington Post, no less:
“A cursory look around Virginia Beach suggested that the worst damage might have been suffered by meteorologists, emergency officials and media who overhyped Hurricane Irene’s likely devastation.”
While RW has explained why this is so, keep in mind that surge is a function not only of winds, but also of storm speed, direction, the local speed of waves in the water, and, in shallow water, slope of the ocean bottom. Some puny storms have managed an unexpectedly high surge. One such was in the NE portion of the Gulf of Mexico about ten years ago–can’t recall the name.
according to think progress, it’s worst then we thought
How Global Warming Is Making Hurricane Irene Worse
http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/08/26/305265/how-global-warming-is-making-hurricane-irene-worse/
Meanwhile I have downgraded Irene from a tropical storm to the sort of weather we get in the North West UK for about 6 months of the year /sarc
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/08/gov_chris_christie_hurricane_i.html
Who’s this clown?
Will go down in history as the “windless hurricane”. We had a few gusty bits here in central Mass, but nothing sustained. My family reports the same from NJ, but more flooding there.
This gives forcasters a really bad name. Yesterday I was hearing 40-50MPH sustained winds and catastrophic damage corridor. Yawn.
What happened to the Saturday the 20th post asking for projections of the path of Irene?
I wrote that I expected it to go “up the Hudson River estuary” and flood Hansen’s West Side Highway. Though done sarcastically, this call seems to have been right on the money:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2011/08/irene-causes-nyc-flooding-millions-without-power.html
“Flooding was also causing problems in highways across the city, including the Henry Hudson Parkway and the West Side Highway in Manhattan and the Belt Parkway in Brooklyn.
Do I get any carbon credits?
I just heard of a very good analog storm to Irene, Hurricane Doria of 1971. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Doria_(1971) :
…
h/t: Todd Gross (Boston weather fans will remember him) at CNBC.
Oops – meant to change my intro on the previous post (I think in spamurgatory) from hurricane Doria to tropical storm Doria.
I’ve probably asked this before but I cannot recall the answer. Isn’t it the case that storms, hurricanes being the biggest, actually fill the role of a massive heat distribution system? I mean, they suck up all that energy (heat + moisture) over warm oceans and then drop it far away from the hot spots….thus distributing heat. Does this mean then that weather systems, maybe all of them, are heat distribution systems that work in tandem with all winds? If so, then if the earth is really heating up a small amount then the ecosystem of our planet should respond accordingly and push the heat out into storms and winds. Am I missing something? It seems obvious…..but….
Knut Witberg says:
August 28, 2011 at 6:33 am
> What is the definition of “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS”?
Easy one, but worth covering. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind
I’m having more trouble finding the definition for gust, I think that’s something like the minimum speed over 5 seconds.
Ric Werme says:
August 28, 2011 at 6:25 am
Ric,
Got a call from my friend in Forked River.
Boat is fine, I don’t know about LBI, but Hurricane made Landfall in Little Egg Harbor, about 20 Mi North of AC with Winds of 79 MPH. These were the max recorded in NJ. My son lives near there and had 2 trees down but no damage to house. I know that the barrier islands (LBI) got quite a pounding from the rough seas and surge the governor called for a mandatory evacuation.
We were fortunate along the NJ coast that the high winds were offshore for the most part on the east side.
Again thanks to Anthony for the great info.
950 mb pressure. Is a normal UK low pressure system.
Being from the hilly part of the uk in the north, Sheffield, the wind speeds are about 30mph and a bit of sideways rain, I’ve played rugby football(soccer) in those conditions on the top of peak district hills in my youth.
It Basically looks like a normal english low pressure system that we get continuously from September though to feb.
There is nothing quite like normal sideways rain and strong winds.
It’s the primary reason why we have cavity built brick houses in the UK, so when the rain is sideways, the water goes through the outer brick layer into the cavity and drops safetly into the space.
There is a reason we don’t do wood houses in the UK. They wouldn’t get though a normal winter !
Prepare for the worst – hope for the best. My thought is everything worked very well. People were well prepared, emergency management was well prepared, and everthing went smoothly. What’s wrong with that?
James, 950mb is a bit on the extreme side for a ‘normal UK low pressure system’! 980mb is a reasonable level for a low producing gales, while a good winter storm is around 960mb. 950mb in an extratropical system is about what the Great Storm of 1987 and the Burns’ Day Storm of 1990 reached. Not exactly everyday stuff.
The Three Little Pigs were onto something about UK housebuilding though…
Why are 300,000 people being evacuated for a 75mph storm?
What am I missing?
Probably that those 300K people depend heavily on a subway and train system that does not shut down on a dime.