Update: August 29 — Tropical Depression 12 has formed out of the strong African easterly wave near 30W. It will generally move Westward over the next 5-days gaining strength steadily, likely becoming a major hurricane by the end of the week. Colorado State satellite imagery — here.
Update: the wave that had 0-10% chance of developing near Bermuda was given the name Jose. Actually, the Canadian Met Model predicted this genesis a week ago, kudos to them. It is a “baby-whirl” and will last 12-24 hours and be one of the shortest-lived and weakest storms in history.
As hurricane season ramps up, eyes turn towards the African coast as “easterly waves” emerge over the warm waters of the North Atlantic. Invests or areas of concern are “named” by simply numbering them starting with 90 and lettered according to basin: Atlantic = L, Eastern Pacific = E, and Western North Pacific = W. So, 92L has just come off the African coast and already has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48-hours according to the latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. The next named storm will be Katia.
Current forecast model animation links follow:
The king of global weather forecast models ECMWF sees a very strong Category 4+ hurricane NE of the Lesser Antilles in 6 to 7 days, with the GFS showing proto-
Jose Katia recurving North much sooner. At this point, we can sit and watch things develop, but keep an eye to the “tropical update” — too bad John Hope isn’t around to make us love meteorology again.
ECMWF 10-day Forecast (click to animate) — updated twice-daily …
NCEP GFS 16-day forecast — updated 4-times daily
A quick way to visualize the “tracks” of the storms is to look at a “wind swath” map: