From the NOAA “Oceans and Human Health Initiative” website and press release, comes this warning that the algae, Moroccan dust, desertification, bacteria, bad seafood, heavy rainfall, old sewers, climate change is gonna get ya.
Climate projections show human health impacts possible within 30 years
New studies demonstrate potential increases in waterborne toxins and microbes
A panel of scientists speaking today at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) unveiled new research and models demonstrating how climate change could increase exposure and risk of human illness originating from ocean, coastal and Great Lakes ecosystems, with some studies projecting impacts to be felt within 30 years.
“With 2010 the wettest year on record and third warmest for sea surface temperatures, NOAA and our partners are working to uncover how a changing climate can affect our health and our prosperity,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “These studies and others like it will better equip officials with the necessary information and tools they need to prepare for and prevent risks associated with changing oceans and coasts.”
In several studies funded by NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative, findings shed light on how complex interactions and climate change alterations in sea, land and sky make ocean and freshwater environments more susceptible to toxic algal blooms and proliferation of harmful microbes and bacteria.
Climate change could prolong toxic algal outbreaks by 2040 or sooner
Using cutting-edge technologies to model future ocean and weather patterns, Stephanie Moore, Ph.D., with NOAA’s West Coast Center for Oceans and Human Health and her partners at the University of Washington, are predicting longer seasons of harmful algal bloom outbreaks in Washington State’s Puget Sound.
The team looked at blooms of Alexandrium catenella, more commonly known as “red tide,” which produces saxitoxin, a poison that can accumulate in shellfish. If consumed by humans, it can cause gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms including vomiting and muscle paralysis or even death in extreme cases.
Longer harmful algal bloom seasons could translate to more days the shellfish fishery is closed, threatening the vitality of the $108 million shellfish industry in Washington state.
“Changes in the harmful algal bloom season appear to be imminent and we expect a significant increase in Puget Sound and similar at-risk environments within 30 years, possibly by the next decade,” said Moore. “Our projections indicate that by the end of the 21st century, blooms may begin up to two months earlier in the year and persist for one month later compared to the present-day time period of July to October.”
Natural climate variability also plays a role in the length of the bloom season from one year to the next. Thus, in any single year, the change in bloom season could be more or less severe than implied by the long-term warming trend from climate change.
Moore and the research team indicate that the extended lead time offered by these projections will allow managers to put mitigation measures in place and sharpen their targets for monitoring to more quickly and effectively open and close shellfish beds instead of issuing a blanket closure for a larger swath of coast or be caught off guard by an unexpected bloom. The same model can be applied to other coastal areas around the world increasingly affected by harmful algal blooms and improve protection of human health against toxic outbreaks.
More atmospheric dust from global desertification could lead to increases of harmful bacteria in oceans, seafood
Researchers at the University of Georgia, a NOAA Oceans and Human Health Initiative Consortium for Graduate Training site, looked at how global desertification — and the resulting increase in atmospheric dust based on some climate change scenarios — could fuel the presence of harmful bacteria in the ocean and seafood.
Desert dust deposition from the atmosphere is considered one of the main contributors of iron in the ocean, has increased over the last 30 years and is expected to rise based on precipitation trends in western Africa. Iron is limited in ocean environments and is essential to most forms of life. In a study conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, Erin Lipp, Ph.D. and graduate student Jason Westrich demonstrated that the sole addition of desert dust and its associated iron into seawater significantly stimulates growth and persistence of Vibrios, a group of ocean bacteria that occur worldwide and can cause gastroenteritis and infectious diseases in humans.
“Within 24 hours of mixing weathered desert dust from Morocco with seawater samples, we saw a 10-1000-fold growth in Vibrios, including one strain that could cause eye, ear, and open wound infections, and another strain that could cause cholera ,” said Lipp. “Our next round of experiments will examine the response of the strains associated with seafood-related infections.”
Since 1996 Vibrio cases have jumped 85 percent in the United States based on reports that primarily track seafood-illnesses. It is possible this additional input of iron, along with rising sea surface temperatures, will affect these bacterial populations and may help to explain both current and future increases in human illnesses from exposure to contaminated seafood and seawater.
Increased rainfall and dated sewers could affect water quality in Great Lakes
A changing climate with more rainstorms on the horizon could increase the risk of overflows of dated sewage systems, causing the release of disease-causing bacteria, viruses and protozoa into drinking water and onto beaches. In the past 10 years there have been more severe storms that trigger overflows. While there is some question whether this is due to natural variability or to climate change, these events provide another example as to how vulnerable urban areas are to climate.
Using fine-tuned climate models developed for Wisconsin, Sandra McLellan, Ph.D., at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee School of Freshwater Sciences, found spring rains are expected to increase in the next 50 years and areas with dated sewer systems are more likely to overflow because the ground is frozen and rainwater can’t be absorbed. As little as 1.7 inches of rain in 24 hours can cause an overflow in spring and the combination of increased temperatures — changing snowfall to rainfall and increased precipitation — can act synergistically to magnify the impact.
McLellan and colleagues showed that under worst case scenarios there could be an average 20 percent increase in volume of overflows, and they expect the overflows to last longer. In Milwaukee, infrastructure investments have reduced sewage overflows to an average of three times per year, but other cities around the Great Lakes still experience overflows up to 40 times per year.
“Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on urban infrastructure, and these investments need to be directed to problems that have the largest impact on our water quality,” said McLellan. “Our research can shed light on this dilemma for cities with aging sewer systems throughout the Great Lakes and even around the world.”
“Understanding climate change on a local level and what it means to county beach managers or water quality safety officers has been a struggle,” said Juli Trtanj, director of NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative and co-author of the interagency report A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change. “These new studies and models enable managers to better cope and prepare for real and anticipated changes in their cities, and keep their citizens, seafood and economy safe.”
On the Web:
Image Gallery: http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov/multimedia/ohh-climate.html
NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative: http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov
Georgia Oceans and Human Health Initiative at the University of Georgia: http://www.georgiaoceansandhealth.org
University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee School of Freshwater Sciences: http://www4.uwm.edu/freshwater
“With 2010 the wettest year on record and third warmest for sea surface temperatures, NOAA and our partners are working to uncover…” new ways to SCARE y’alls so we can gits us sum MO MONEY! MO MONEY! MO MONEY!!!
[Reply: Please use correct grammar: “…new ways to SCARE all y’alls…” ‘Y’alls’ is singular in Southern. All y’alls is plural.☺ ~dbs, mod.]
Desert dust deposition from the atmosphere is considered one of the main contributors of iron in the ocean
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I thought someone was trying to put more iron in the oceans, so the oceans would take up more CO2………………..
More desert = more African/Saharan dust = more iron = more CO2 sequestered
So does this prove that NOAA learns more and more about less and less until it knows everything about nothing or that NOAA learns less and less about more and more until it knows nothing about everything?
Monty says: (February 19, 2011 at 10:48 pm0
“Or could be—Nitrogen run off, from a few million new dark green lawns added in the last 30 years, that line Washington State’s Puget Sound. Yes people….not CO2.”
HIVES ….. Human Induced Variations in Ecological Systems.
No doubt the AMA, the ABA, the NFL, the NHL, the AFL-CIO, the.. (well there’s just too many to list here) will soon be warming to the idea of warning about all this and making recommendations for new studies vis-a-vis the impacts too. Didn’t the population of the World suffer through terrible Plagues a just few years ago? During the shortlived Modern Climate Optimum (MCO). Weren’t these scourges on mankind also the result of manmade climate changes? It seems we really do need to layoff the majority of these NOAA people so we have enough money to hire more MD’s, lawyers, football players, hockey players, and union organizers, etc. We really should design an appropriate certificate for these tireless climatologists. Something they can hang on their wall. Something they can xerox to include in their resumes.
As mentioned, “Using fine-tuned climate models developed for Wisconsin” says it all. We’ve seen how GCMs can make flying, singing Dumbos with all the free parameters they have to play with!
Baxter75 writes:
“It wasn’t long a ago that the EPA (with Greenpeace) tried to ban chlorine (needed for sterilizing drinking water) with the result that many in Peru died from cholera. EPA was thankfully slapped down and their ban was overturned.”
Hmm, if you are referring to the cholera outbreak in Peru in the early 90’s, then it seems that the problem was that they had insufficient supplies of chlorine, equipment that wasn’t working, and an unreliable power supply. Because of this only 12% of tested water had any residual chlorine. The locals also tended to store tap water in containers with wide openings, which allowed contamination during storage.
Actually wet years/decades that cause a greening of the planet are necessary for the huge dust storms that follow. The longer cycles of plenty and famine depend on this relationship.
Wet years/decades are not a sign of AGW. Wet years grow ground cover that during years of drought become the very necessary dusty reseeding of oceans. I am hoping that Africa is increasing its dust storms. Why? I happen to like seafood.
Boomer says: February 20, 2011 at 4:59 am
“Has Al set up a “Dust Credit” exchange yet?”
The link from a post on Tips and Notes
son of mulder says:
February 20, 2011 at 1:12 am http://wattsupwiththat.com/tips-notes-to-wuwt/#comment-602857
“Mystery bug ate up BP oil spill
provides a link to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
where various projects are also undertaken for developing nations.
“…..The scientists are working not only to create a more efficient stove specific for use in Ethiopia, but to finance the project by selling carbon credits on the world carbon market”
http://www.lbl.gov/LBL-Programs/energy-health-solutions.html
Any research to determine the results of climate change can be looked at with suspicion of political motivation. Why because politicians need and want and are attempting to use the claim of climate change for their legislation, regulation and in general abuse of office. They don’t need proof, just the prediction.
Climate change research always predicts the future and is always bad news. There is good in research that should be limited to what it can provide and not stretched into something it is not.
The North-African Sahara desert formed during the 300-year long “8K” event when the climate “cooled” about 5-degreess-F. Also, the ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland show higher dust levels during extremely cold ice-age periods for the past 500,000 years. So, how does warm equal more global dust? So many questions – so few answers – now that is “real” science.
I recently attended a class/lecture series by a senior World Bank official. You could sum up the presentation in one sentence: “Climate change is going to cause lots of problems for lots of people and we need lots of money to help them.” One slide he showed had 2 different precipitation scenarios for IPCC’s A2 modeling run–one wet and one dry. If the dry one happens it will cost $70B to adapt; if the wet one happens it will cost $100B. Now presumably, the adaptations that will work best in the dry scenario are different than the adaptations that will be needed in the wet scenario. So what to do?
There are lots of things that are possible in the future. Some of those things are probable. But only one scenario will play out when it actually happens in the place that it happens. It is a huge waste of time and money to try to adapt to every possible catastrophe before it happens. So deal with the here and now, and be cautiously prepared for the future. We can’t afford otherwise.
Bob Diaz says:
February 19, 2011 at 9:03 pm
‘Sarcasm = ON
Forgive me if I don’t get excited and run around crying, “It’s the end of the world!!!”’
Yeah, if you really want to be scared, search The New Yorker magazine for articles about New York City’s water supply. The pipes are so old and have been “repaired” so many times that the water basically seeps from the mountains into NYC kitchens. (Maybe you have to love NYC to find this frightening.)
When I was growing up, coming of age, people understood that the world, even your own little part of the world, is one accident from disaster. It did not bother us at all.
Jeez, the efficient stoves financed by selling carbon credits almost makes me think such credits have a value. But not quite.
Speaking of the Sahara, it’s re-greening itself.
Even National Geographic had to admit it:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara_2.html
“[Reply: Please use correct grammar: “…new ways to SCARE all y’alls…” ‘Y’alls’ is singular in Southern. All y’alls is plural.☺ ~dbs, mod.]”
The ‘s’, is optional. I never use it.
I do use an ‘s’ in the possessive. “Is that y’all’s stuff?”
Bye, See y’all; see all y’all.
Based on NOAA models all the “could” happen. Sound a lot like the NOAA model that showed the Gulf oil spill “could” reach a far as North Carolina, only difference is the timeline was short enough then it was quickly disproved.
JeffT says:
February 20, 2011 at 3:43 am
“Dr Lubchenko must be poorly informed or has a short memory,”
Back in her OSU days, she was convinced that Ocean productivity
particularly Salmon Runs, were being affected due to human activity.
That Salmon will never return in numbers. Well guess what?
Some old fisherman in Port Orford knew more than she did.
“The Salmon come and go, they are like everything else: Cyclical.”
Jack Gruien , once the oldest commercial fisherman in the USA
@92 he just died at 102. Also the Salmon have come back.-
feeding the Sea Lion population as we speak. Few of the government
scientists ever actually talk to or listen to people who have stood on the
deck of a fishing boat , Or sit in the cab of a tractor or the saddle of a cow horse,
(yes the old west ain’t dead yet.) ….
Having checked out the article provided by Brian H, I see that half of the models predict a wetter future for the Sahel region, and half predict a drier. As I become more immersed in this climate stuff, I think I am beginning to detect a trend regarding all of these models. Based upon my own thought processes, I think I can now predict with 100% certainty that there is a 50/50 chance of something happening. Or not. Would that be accurate?
sarc on
With all that dust in the oceans there are going to be too many pearls, and then there will be a glut of pearls.
Sell short pearls.
sarc off
Considering that the expulsion of dust from Morocco depends on the strength of the Harmattan, a fierce trade wind which intensity is related to the power of the MPHs i.e. high pressure anticyclones and agglutinations, i.e. rapid mode of circulation one can see that the increase of dust is a good proxy for a general cooling rather than warming!
http://ddata.over-blog.com/xxxyyy/2/32/25/79/Leroux-Global-and-Planetary-Change-1993.pdf
[Reply: Please use correct grammar: “…new ways to SCARE all y’alls…” ‘Y’alls’ is singular in Southern. All y’alls is plural.☺ ~dbs, mod.]
1) Obviously written by a yankee then incorrectly corrected by another yankee.
Pitiful, just plumb pitiful.
2) There is no such word in proper southern as y’alls. The only form is the possessive as Theo Goodwin correctly remarked.
3) The correct phrase would be ” … new ways to SCARE y’all”
4) Bless your heart. I understand you are doing the best you can with what you have.
Yes!
The first is how my Dad defined an expert — someone who learned more about less and less until he knew everything about nothing.
Larry
richard verney says:
February 20, 2011 at 3:43 am
“These guys and the public should be constantly reminded of the litany of failed predictions that they have come up with. With such a track record, how could any sane person take them seriously?”
I think its time for a knowledgeable person to write a book on the failed predictions since 1950 (I want to include the Club of Rome in here) and to highlight any predictions that came true. Using this statistic, it should be possible to make a credible forecast of what percent of the fear industry’s predictions will not come true. Many, like Ehrlich and Schneider changed horses from imminent ice age back in the 1970s, to a firey hell on earth for this century. They of course can say that they were right eventually. Also we would have to be aware of the rationalizations and re-interpretations that skewed Nostradamus’s predictions to fit history – the straw graspers will be studying this too.
And few scientists ventured up the Lostine River this past fall to see it choked with H..U..G..E Salmon for the first time in a generation. These Salmon are not land-locked. They made it over the dams and up this remote rugged river by the dozens, congregating in pools now too small to hold them all.