From the NOAA “Oceans and Human Health Initiative” website and press release, comes this warning that the algae, Moroccan dust, desertification, bacteria, bad seafood, heavy rainfall, old sewers, climate change is gonna get ya.
Climate projections show human health impacts possible within 30 years
New studies demonstrate potential increases in waterborne toxins and microbes
A panel of scientists speaking today at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) unveiled new research and models demonstrating how climate change could increase exposure and risk of human illness originating from ocean, coastal and Great Lakes ecosystems, with some studies projecting impacts to be felt within 30 years.
“With 2010 the wettest year on record and third warmest for sea surface temperatures, NOAA and our partners are working to uncover how a changing climate can affect our health and our prosperity,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “These studies and others like it will better equip officials with the necessary information and tools they need to prepare for and prevent risks associated with changing oceans and coasts.”
In several studies funded by NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative, findings shed light on how complex interactions and climate change alterations in sea, land and sky make ocean and freshwater environments more susceptible to toxic algal blooms and proliferation of harmful microbes and bacteria.
Climate change could prolong toxic algal outbreaks by 2040 or sooner
Using cutting-edge technologies to model future ocean and weather patterns, Stephanie Moore, Ph.D., with NOAA’s West Coast Center for Oceans and Human Health and her partners at the University of Washington, are predicting longer seasons of harmful algal bloom outbreaks in Washington State’s Puget Sound.
The team looked at blooms of Alexandrium catenella, more commonly known as “red tide,” which produces saxitoxin, a poison that can accumulate in shellfish. If consumed by humans, it can cause gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms including vomiting and muscle paralysis or even death in extreme cases.
Longer harmful algal bloom seasons could translate to more days the shellfish fishery is closed, threatening the vitality of the $108 million shellfish industry in Washington state.
“Changes in the harmful algal bloom season appear to be imminent and we expect a significant increase in Puget Sound and similar at-risk environments within 30 years, possibly by the next decade,” said Moore. “Our projections indicate that by the end of the 21st century, blooms may begin up to two months earlier in the year and persist for one month later compared to the present-day time period of July to October.”
Natural climate variability also plays a role in the length of the bloom season from one year to the next. Thus, in any single year, the change in bloom season could be more or less severe than implied by the long-term warming trend from climate change.
Moore and the research team indicate that the extended lead time offered by these projections will allow managers to put mitigation measures in place and sharpen their targets for monitoring to more quickly and effectively open and close shellfish beds instead of issuing a blanket closure for a larger swath of coast or be caught off guard by an unexpected bloom. The same model can be applied to other coastal areas around the world increasingly affected by harmful algal blooms and improve protection of human health against toxic outbreaks.
More atmospheric dust from global desertification could lead to increases of harmful bacteria in oceans, seafood
Researchers at the University of Georgia, a NOAA Oceans and Human Health Initiative Consortium for Graduate Training site, looked at how global desertification — and the resulting increase in atmospheric dust based on some climate change scenarios — could fuel the presence of harmful bacteria in the ocean and seafood.
Desert dust deposition from the atmosphere is considered one of the main contributors of iron in the ocean, has increased over the last 30 years and is expected to rise based on precipitation trends in western Africa. Iron is limited in ocean environments and is essential to most forms of life. In a study conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey, Erin Lipp, Ph.D. and graduate student Jason Westrich demonstrated that the sole addition of desert dust and its associated iron into seawater significantly stimulates growth and persistence of Vibrios, a group of ocean bacteria that occur worldwide and can cause gastroenteritis and infectious diseases in humans.
“Within 24 hours of mixing weathered desert dust from Morocco with seawater samples, we saw a 10-1000-fold growth in Vibrios, including one strain that could cause eye, ear, and open wound infections, and another strain that could cause cholera ,” said Lipp. “Our next round of experiments will examine the response of the strains associated with seafood-related infections.”
Since 1996 Vibrio cases have jumped 85 percent in the United States based on reports that primarily track seafood-illnesses. It is possible this additional input of iron, along with rising sea surface temperatures, will affect these bacterial populations and may help to explain both current and future increases in human illnesses from exposure to contaminated seafood and seawater.
Increased rainfall and dated sewers could affect water quality in Great Lakes
A changing climate with more rainstorms on the horizon could increase the risk of overflows of dated sewage systems, causing the release of disease-causing bacteria, viruses and protozoa into drinking water and onto beaches. In the past 10 years there have been more severe storms that trigger overflows. While there is some question whether this is due to natural variability or to climate change, these events provide another example as to how vulnerable urban areas are to climate.
Using fine-tuned climate models developed for Wisconsin, Sandra McLellan, Ph.D., at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee School of Freshwater Sciences, found spring rains are expected to increase in the next 50 years and areas with dated sewer systems are more likely to overflow because the ground is frozen and rainwater can’t be absorbed. As little as 1.7 inches of rain in 24 hours can cause an overflow in spring and the combination of increased temperatures — changing snowfall to rainfall and increased precipitation — can act synergistically to magnify the impact.
McLellan and colleagues showed that under worst case scenarios there could be an average 20 percent increase in volume of overflows, and they expect the overflows to last longer. In Milwaukee, infrastructure investments have reduced sewage overflows to an average of three times per year, but other cities around the Great Lakes still experience overflows up to 40 times per year.
“Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on urban infrastructure, and these investments need to be directed to problems that have the largest impact on our water quality,” said McLellan. “Our research can shed light on this dilemma for cities with aging sewer systems throughout the Great Lakes and even around the world.”
“Understanding climate change on a local level and what it means to county beach managers or water quality safety officers has been a struggle,” said Juli Trtanj, director of NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative and co-author of the interagency report A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change. “These new studies and models enable managers to better cope and prepare for real and anticipated changes in their cities, and keep their citizens, seafood and economy safe.”
On the Web:
Image Gallery: http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov/multimedia/ohh-climate.html
NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative: http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov
Georgia Oceans and Human Health Initiative at the University of Georgia: http://www.georgiaoceansandhealth.org
University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee School of Freshwater Sciences: http://www4.uwm.edu/freshwater
I suspect the managers and water quality officers referred to can best prepare for the future by ignoring the modelling or by learning a useful trade. Get a job appears to be the most intelligent response to these tuners of models at the late great NOAA.
Being a non-scientist, maybe it’s just my imagination, but it seems like this new “advancement” in climate studies is a bit like a first year med student who, after reading textbooks, suddenly begins to develop symptoms of the diseases he/she studies. Suddenly, everything is trying to kill us (like it wasn’t trying to before computer models). Truly a fine example of “ignorance is bliss” … or perhaps “beware the person who has read but one book”. It just seems odd that there is never, ever, any good news from these people…
“More atmospheric dust from global desertification could lead to increases of harmful bacteria in oceans, seafood”
“Increased rainfall and dated sewers could affect water quality in Great Lakes”
How can we have GLOBAL DESERTIFICATION with INCREASED RAINFALL?
“In several studies funded by NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative, findings shed light on how complex interactions and climate change alterations in sea, land and SKY make ocean and freshwater environments more susceptible to toxic algal blooms and proliferation of harmful microbes and bacteria.”
Now we’re changing the SKY with our CO2 emissions?
Sarcasm = ON
Forgive me if I don’t get excited and run around crying, “It’s the end of the world!!!”
The ozone layer has gone away, Killer Bees are attacking, the Y2K Bug shut down all computers, swine flu has killed off almost everyone, and bird flu will get the rest. For those who survive this massive holocaust, GLOBAL WARMING will fry us to a crisp…
Sarcasm = OFF
I’m reminded of the story of, “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”. It seems like everything you turn around someone is crying that something horrible is about to happen.
Bob Diaz
My local High School did a similar experiment about 6 years ago. E. Coli. Postulated identically. They found out that 15 feet from shore out of a discharge of heavily contaminated water….yes, 15′, the bacteria had dispersed to an insignificant extent was being heartily EATEN by salt water forms that relished the taste. The local Board of Health was so impressed that they actually replicated the study, confirmed it, and told every one they were relieved.
Some interesting thoughts on Jane Lubchenco:
0:53 video with Joseph D’Aleo
So once again we hear our models predict that x will happen but they also say that if it doesn’t they are still right,
I have come to the conclusion that all of these learned doctors watched too many 70’s disaster movies….
‘Fess up. Are you going to reduce you[r] eating of seafood because of this report?
I live in the country. I get my drinking water from a shallow bore, full of lovely water full of campylobacter (Campylobacter causes 5-11 percent of all diarrhea in the United States). So I installed a filtration plant and ultraviolet cooking tube which gives those bad boys a nasty suntan. Of course, must have cheap electricity to run said plant. Luckily, my power comes from hydro – reliable, cheap and ‘sustainable’ (as long as the dam doesn’t break). So here’s a clue – provide everyone with cheap, reliable, sustainable power and problem solved! Instead of taxing everyone for energy, just make it more available and cheaper. It’s called Ad-Dapt-Tay-Shin. (If in fact there really is any increased risk).
– Seems like reason enough for House Republicans to cut funding for NOAA’s so-called “climate science” and its fruitless attempt to demonstrate global warming is something we should worry about. What a bunch of hot air.
They say we should worry about air-borne dust putting iron into the ocean.
In the past 20 years they have intentionally done numerous iron fertilization experiments covering 100s of sq. km. with iron dust in an attempt to remove co2 from the atmosphere. Who comes up with these ideas, Larry, Curly, or Moe?
Climate *always* changes and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.
In fact, we have been doing detailed weather recording for such a short period of time that we have no idea of the bounds of natural variability. We do know, however, that climate can change from cold regimes to warm regimes in *very* short periods of time. The changes from MWP to LIA back to modern warm period happened over a very short period of time
Basing any policy decisions on what amounts to no data and a lot of hypothetical speculation is bad juju.
SJB kinda beat me to it, but:
Because of global warming 2010 was the wettest year ever
So we should be preparing for global desertification?
Rain causes deserts?
Followed by claiming that increased rainfall might overflow old sewer systems in the spring because the ground would still be frozen and unable to absorb the water.
So global warming increases rainfall and desertification, and causes earlier spring times so that the extra rain (the stuff that causes deserts) causes flooding because the only thing the global warming didn’t do in this study is make the globe warmer, which is why spring rains come earlier but the ground is still frozen as long as it was before.
Good thing we have top notch scientists working on this stuff because it really is counter intuitive.
Now about the iron. Have I got this right? The global warming causes increased precipitation which results in increased desertification, which results in more dust containing iron in the air from which it is scrubbed by the increased precipitation into the oceans by all the extra rain that causes deserts. This is thought to be bad because the extra iron in the oceans causes almost everything to grow, but if you do an experiment in the lab with only algae it makes the algae grow a lot. And everyone knows that algae in a petri dish with nothing else grows just the same as algae in the ocean surrounded by stuff that eats it. Like I said, counter intuitive.
Of course I wonder also why that very fine iron dust lands in sea water and doesn’t cause those reactions that extract CO2 and SO2 like they do in the lab. Is Morrocon iron dust more selective? Or maybe the CO2 the iron would normally react with isn’t there anymore because of global warming? That’s it! The global warming must have3 frozen the CO2 as well. Probably causes spontaneous fire extinguisher production.
Dr. McLellan may share with us the municipalities likely to suffer overflow conditions resulting in release of sewage into the Great Lakes. Are we dealing with small municipalities or large cities? Baring multiple very large municipalities dumping sewage the Great Lakes have a significant cleansing mechanism, it flows to the Atlantic Ocean in large volumes. Image: Niagra Falls and Horseshoe Falls. Zebra mussels cleared Eastern Lake Erie of algae and restored a fishing habitat. Before sewage regulations, all major cities and almost every shoreline municipalities dumped their sewage into the Great Lakes. Unless there is quantification of the excess rainfall that will not be handled by current municipalities, all that was speculated from modeling is still speculation, guess work, and plainly an expression of ignorance. The Great Lakes are a complex ecosystem. Adding more water to this fresh water reservoir will raise water levels to…. maybe 1986 levels. Or maybe there will be drought in which case the low water mark is 1964. Hmmmm. It seems that the Great Lakes has the ability to handle both large volumes of excess water as well as displaying a resilience in drought. Maybe Dr. McLellan just should label her work: “Speculative speculations on a non-established climate projection.” At least it would be honest; not interesting, but at least honest.
“A changing climate with more rainstorms on the horizon could increase the risk of overflows of dated sewage systems…”
OK, so here’s the deal… we don’t fix a few old pipes because of this prediction… oh, no. We fix the climate. Because we know soooo much more about fixing climate than pipes!
Madness…
Calamity Jane carved her niche by decrying marine “dead zones”. Now the problem is an abundance of life in the oceans. Both caused by gloooobal waaarming! And the identical default solution to both conflicting (imaginary) phenomena? More taxes of course!
Perhaps she should be remonikered “Broken Record” Jane.
Increased desertification? Are we seeing deserts expand around the world? Er..Nope! The computer models(runes) predict rising temps which the CAGW theology dictates will lead to more deserts, an IPCC prediction which has failed to materialize.
Not long ago the plan by the CAGW cult was to add iron to the oceans, this plan was pimped for several years as humanitys saviour, just another stupid mistake to add to the list with the research money utterly wasted.
Lets examine why so many stupid blunders and errors are made by the newest addition to the cult of stupid, here are some pointers:
“Understanding climate change on a local level and what it means to county beach managers or water quality safety officers has been a struggle,” said Juli Trtanj, director of NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative and co-author of the interagency report A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change. “These new studies and models enable managers to better cope and prepare for real and anticipated changes in their cities, and keep their citizens, seafood and economy safe.”
Understanding climate change at a local level has been a challenge has it? Natural climate change is easy to understand, it changes and historical records give a perfect road map and guide in how to deal with it and plan ahead for it.
The blunder begins when NOAA disregards historical wisdom and tries to impose its CAGW theology in the form of guidance and planning doctrines handed down to local planning and executive level, in effect orders are coming down the chain of command that have no value whatsoever. What you see is an ever increasing load of ill thought out gibberish and contradictory advice coming down the line to front line services who then rush about tying themselves into knots trying to execute this incoherent insanity.
There is a very good reason why the NOOA gang are struggling so much, their doctrines and models and ideas and theology are wholly wrong so any fix based on them will be wrong.
Of course the studies and models will be wrong, they will offer the wrong advice at the wrong time to the people who should do the opposite. Advice and planning guidance from NOAA? Anyone taking their gibberish on board will fail utterly in anything they try. The grand sounding title hides a sin of gigantic proportions, the basis of their entire report is to enshrine and enact CAGW cult ideology and theology in every part of the public administrative machine. The doctrines are wrong, the theories are wrong, the models are wrong, the subsequent strategic and tactical planning will be wrong. Far from enabling managers reports like this are going to set in motion a long term chain of events that have the capacity to cause immense and lasting damage.
NOAA is trying to lead the USA in the wrong direction and if they continue to be allowed to pump out their ill advised ill thought out contradictory nonsense they will hurt a great many people. the stupidity of the statement below needs to be fully examined.
“These new studies and models enable managers to better cope and prepare for real and anticipated changes in their cities, and keep their citizens, seafood and economy safe.”
Translation needed I think?
These new studies and models will confuse and confound and bamboozle managers so they will not be able to cope and prepare for actual and real changes in their cities and cause untold misery to their citizens, damage their seafood and smash their economy.
The plot of bacterial growth shows just how bad these scientists are. The “no dust” run showed no growth at all. Now, these bacteria are presumably capable of growth (an unusual life form that isn’t) so the “no dust” run was apparently under conditions which inhibit growth (the simplest would be lack of nutrients). Dust contains lots of things including, it seems, some essential nutrients.
U. of Washington used “cutting-edge technologies” in their study. In my experience that generally means, still buggy, but we have to get it out the door to meet the schedule.
U. of Wisconsin used “fine-tuned climate models” in their study. What did they do? Keep tuning the parameters until the researchers thought the results looked fine?
“Understanding climate change on a local level and what it means to county beach managers or water quality safety officers has been a struggle,” said Juli Trtanj, director of NOAA’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative and co-author of the interagency report A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change. “These new studies and models enable managers to better cope and prepare for real and anticipated changes in their cities, and keep their citizens, seafood and economy safe.”
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YUCK. If it were’t so pitiful….it would be actually funny.
Sounds alot like “NOAA understands and predicts the blah blah blah”.
Since when has it become OK for a publicly-funded bureaucrat….to have a private-funded ego ?
Oh, right. It’s not OK….in any known universe.
Time to light the torches.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
There as many possibilities for modelers as there modelers. As Amino above references, we were warned many years ago about what we might get if we did not heed Eisenhower’s words about rent seeking scientists. That prediction has unfortunately proved to be altogether too accurate.
the change in bloom season could be more or less severe than implied by the long-term warming trend from climate change.
Ain’t that the truth. It could be more or it could be less.
Saharan dust was a big problem in Florida back in the 1970s. In 1972, I was trying to varnish some brightwork on my sailboat and every day this red dust landed all over the boat and varnish . The only way not to have dust in the finish was to wait until the wind died at night before painting.
I am sure glad I was not trying to light my work back then with wind power as I would have been painting in the dark.
That’s energy security – you KNOW it’s not going to be there when you need it. It’s like socialism – equal poverty for all. Or that great education program – No Child Gets Ahead. What else can we make totally mediocre?
You cannot produce a reliable energy supply from an unreliable energy source.