The nation is rather abuzz over the huge snowstorm (which I dubbed Snowzilla) this week, and I thought I’d put together a collection of loosley related news items. In light of Krauthammer’s recent comment, I’m glad I chose Snowzilla for the name.
Refreshing sanity — It’s La Niña, obviously: Dr. Louis Uccellini, head of NCEP, winter storm textbook expert: “We are linking the storm tracks to the La Nina pattern which dominates the flow coming off the Pacific,” Uccellini explained to AP in a telephone interview. “This follows the pattern we would expect through the Ohio Valley and with heavy precipitation to the Great Lakes…You can’t relate climate change to individual storm systems. Clearly, there have been similar storms in previous decades. As intense as this storm is, it’s equivalent to other major storms that they’ve seen in past decades”
First the satellite image:
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The animation: showing Snowzilla forming, and stomping all over the nation east of the Mississippi:
From NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory:
Intense Blizzard Rolls Across the U.S.
A massive winter storm system is rolling across the Plains and Midwest U.S., headed for the New England Region. Snow amounts of up to three feet have been dumped in some parts of Illinois and Indiana, and more is on its way. Whereas the Midwest is plagued with snow, ice will be the danger in Pennsylvania. Temperatures are warming from Maryland south, which will bring only rain to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
This animation shows GOES-East satellite infrared water vapor imagery from January 29 -February 1, 2011. The GOES satellites provide visible and infrared imagery of the U.S. every 15 minutes. The blue colored areas show the most intense, moist areas of the atmosphere that are responsible for these major precipitation events. Also included, at the end, is the snow precipitation amounts from Jan 31 – Feb 1, 2011.
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The snow cover map:
Source: http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa/
The snow and cold records:
The northern hemisphere snow:
The graph from Rutgers snow lab, and 2011 isn’t even on the books yet:
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The photos – Chicago on February 2nd:
Dallas: Fountain Place Fountains Frozen
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The Superbowl – now more about the weather than football:
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The there was the rolling blackouts: wind power shoulders some blame
More here
Plus, the embarrassing revelation that Texas had to get electricity from Mexico:
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Gore and the pundits:
Gore’s pronouncement about the “snow being caused by global warming”, so stupid even Jay Leno made fun of it.
The Goreacle: Snowstorms caused by global warming
Snow job: Gore channels liberal columnist as proof of global warming fueled blizzards
Here’s Leno:
And then there’s this Godzilla/Snowzilla moment:
Charles Krauthammer: ‘If Godzilla Appeared on National Mall Gore Would Say It’s Global Warming’
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And finally, the word on Gore’s imagined water vapor increase:
From Dr. Roger Peilke:
“Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000.
From NOAA ESRL:
Click for a larger image
Note the second graph, precipitable water. How is it with global warming that in 1950’s we had so much more precipitable water than in the present? Notice the spike in 1998 – that’s the big El Niño that did that. If anything, if there’s a claim to more water vapor in 2010, it would be to the large El Niño that year. It will be interesting to plot this again in a few months to see if there’s a spike just like 1998
Only problem is, that we have a strong La Niña in the middle of Snowzilla now:
UPDATE: The original preciptable water plot from NCEP has been updated to be more current. Thanks to commenter “c james”. NCEP also provides a map of preciptable water in the near term. Here’s what it looks like during the Snowzilla event:
and here’s the zoom on the USA:
Interesting how a few stations reported high minimum temp when surrounded by low temperature records. UHI effect? These stations might be worth researching.
Snow happens!
ew-3, I don’t see any high temp records of any kind there. There are yellow dots where each major city is, perhaps that is what you see?
First it was global warming causing less snow, and the less snow (albedo) was making it even hotter…..
….Now it’s global warming causing more snow, and the more snow is still causing it to get hotter.
How in this world can anyone talk about a “null hypothesis” when everything that happens is because of global warming.
No wonder these morons need communication workshops………………..
There was that story a year ago about the windmills in Minnesota that couldn’t operate through the winter because they lacked the natural gas powered heaters to keep the hydraulic fluid warm. With temperatures in the single degrees in Texas, it’s possible that the windmills froze up. I know some point out that there was wind, but if the hydraulics freeze then they are but giant statues.
Hey I have a question, I looked up the humidity level and found this graph:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_N4XvePkmKjA/TLFaHJ0DrhI/AAAAAAAAATA/ngOtwMmElQE/s1600/1000+mbar+Global+Humidity.jpg
which was from this website:
http://objectivistindividualist.blogspot.com/2010/10/water-not-co2-controls-earth-ir.html
I didn’t read it in detail too much, but it looks like the humidity change has varied based on the altitude?
Anthony, thanks for the very informative graph of precipitable water. No doubt some warmer will come up with a rationale for analyzing data the record starting in 1965 to come up with an increasing trend. They’ve done that with all sorts of data, from hurricanes to record max and min tempertures, “prove” warming since 1960, 1965, 1970, or some other date during the cool epoch after the 1930s warm spell.
Also, no doubt some warmers (who have posted on earlier WUWT articles) will re-issue their claim that bigger snow storms occur due to more moisture, invoking Clausius–Clapeyron (warmer = more moisture = wetter). They’ll claim it’s basic physics, and “what part of physics don’t you understand?”
Well, here’s some additional physics:
1. Snow form from condensation of water vapor.
2. The atmosphere is saturated when condensation occurs.
3. The saturated amound of vapor increases with temperature (Clausius–Clapeyron).
4. Snow forms when the temperature is below 0C (it’s ice, you know).
5. The maximum amount of vapor available to condense into ice occurs just below 0C.
6. Raising the temperature beyond 0C produces rain.
7. The maximum amount of vapor available to produce snow cannot be increased beyond the saturation amount at 0C.
8. Maximum storm snowfall can be increased by stronger upward motion due to temperature contrasts, convergence, vorticity, etc., not moisture.
9. There is no mechanism by which overall warming can increases the maximum snow storm.
Here in Toronto, Canada, it was supposed to be bad… http://www.thestar.com/news/article/931740–storm-expected-to-be-biggest-of-the-winter
Then we got hit with a dry slot just as the heaviest part of the storm was supposed to go over us. Result; half, or less, of the snow that the QPF indicated we’d get… http://www.thestar.com/news/article/931954–what-happened-to-toronto-s-snow-mageddon
Even Torontonians were calling the Toronto school board wimps for declaring a “snow day” for schools” http://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters/article/933020–reaction-to-a-snow-day#article I feel bad for the School Board official who called the snow day. He was going with what forecasts were available, and police were urging everybody to stay off the roads.
That photo of Dallas Cowboys Stadium in deep-freeze snow says it all.
Funny how the Antarctic blast that got loose in S. America last summer (and the MSM hid) has a counterpart that won’t go away.
Al Gore is eating cold crow.
As I type this, heavy snow is falling again in western New Hampshire. We’re expecting another 4″ – 10″. Definitely one of the snowiest and coldest winters I’ve seen here in 15 years and it’s just early February…
You’d think they’d be pleased to see the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere advance so far. They claim the snow and ice in the NH disappearing is a major crisis.
Their own response to ‘good’ news shows that there are no clear objectives or results in earth’s weather systems that will satisfy their endless push to regulate and tax carbon dioxide emissions.
It is instructive to note that the IPCC AR4 report, the final and most comprehensive climate report of the U.N. issued in 2007, which is more than 1,000 pages in length and which references more than 1,000 studies on climate issues makes no mention or discussion whatsoever about global warming having links to increased snow in the future. In fact this massive report concludes that the future holds nothing but more heat waves and reduced snow cover for the globe.
The resent statements by some climate alarmist scientists that increased snow and snow storms are consistent with global warming theory are simply climate fear hand waving and alarmist conjecture. It yet another example of how dishonest, deceptive and manipulated the science behind man made global warming has degenerated.
Any word yet from Al Gore and the Rommulan Fleet?
All this precipitation, whether it is in the form of rain or snow, seems to have increased greatly in relation to the low sun spot activity of the sun.
What makes it more intriguing now is the fact that the water moisture in the atmosphere has decreased since 2000.
Surely this must give more weight to Henrik Svensmark’s cloud propagation theory by Cosmic rays?
There’s got to be a neutral colour zero band in these colour anomaly graphs. NOW!
Have a look at this map, especially the Southern Hemisphere where it is summer now.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp_c.html#picture
Also have a look at this map that shows the current ice and snow cover world wide:
http://www.iceagenow.com/Most_of_Nrthn_Hemisphere_covered_by
Since 1986, the year the AGW scare saw the light with a warning for ‘imminent danger of climate disaster’, nothing has happened.
Our climate is fine.
Looking at the graph of North American winter snow extent it seems to jump around a lot. For example, there was a high in 1979 that then went to a low, by considerable margins, in 1981.
The levels fluctuate so much that it seems unlikely they can be attributed to a single cause
Is all of New Mexico covered in snow?
Whouda thunk it.
Now they’re forecasting rain over much of the southern parts of the area that is covered in snow. I’ve been furiously trying to get as much of the several inches of snow off my roof. It hasn’t melted much, especially on the north side. If it rains much that snow will soak it up like a sponge and roofs could collapse. There’s still a lot of snow on my pines and Leland cypresses weighing them down. I sincerely hope the rain bypasses the Ozarks.
The precipitable water graph in this post is not current. You can get the current one here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=Precipitable+Water&level=2000&lat1=90&lat2=-90&lon1=0&lon2=360&iseas=1&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=2&Submit=Create+Timeseries
It shows a continued spike up through the end of 2010 to almost as high as in 1952.
REPLY: Thanks, I’ll update to the more current one- Anthony
SNOW: “A VERY RARE AND EXCITING EVENT”
Where is Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, who said in year 2000 within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said
http://ind.pn/i2ZHaw
VIRTUAL EXPERIENCE OF SNOW
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes – or eventually “feel” virtual cold.
http://ind.pn/i2ZHaw
“Scott Gibson says:
February 5, 2011 at 11:42 am
ew-3, I don’t see any high temp records of any kind there. There are yellow dots where each major city is, perhaps that is what you see?”
You’re absolutely right. Thanks
Richard Keen says:
February 5, 2011 at 12:18 pm
….
9. There is no mechanism by which overall warming can increases the maximum snow storm.
…
Based on your previous bullets, it appears that you assume the moisture is supplied by the cold air mass… Have you considered that a warmer mass (warmed by GW) provides the moisture, moves into a cold air mass and condenses? Surely you have and I have just lost your point there…
Also, to Anthony. I think Gore meant that the lower atmosphere would hold the moisture… The decrease in stratosphere moisture dosent really affect rain, snow, etc does it? Of course. I’m just guessing here… I dont claim to really know what I’m talking about…
Why are they bothering to spin this cold and snow into the AGW theory? Why aren’t they just dismissing it as weather as they normally would? Could it be that they realize temps really aren’t rising anymore and for them to have jobs in coming years they’ll need to spin the cold and snow into global warming?