The Goreacle: Snowstorms caused by global warming

al-gore-office

Image by Handforged via Flickr Gotta love those power saving triple monitors!

Here Al Gore responds to Bill O’Reilly of Fox News on his blog:

An Answer for Bill February 1, 2011 : 11:43 AM

Last week on his show Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?” and then said he had a call into me. I appreciate the question.

As it turns out, the scientific community has been addressing this particular question for some time now and they say that increased heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting as a consequence of man-made global warming:

“In fact, scientists have been warning for at least two decades that global warming could make snowstorms more severe. Snow has two simple ingredients: cold and moisture. Warmer air collects moisture like a sponge until it hits a patch of cold air. When temperatures dip below freezing, a lot of moisture creates a lot of snow.”

“A rise in global temperature can create all sorts of havoc, ranging from hotter dry spells to colder winters, along with increasingly violent storms, flooding, forest fires and loss of endangered species.”

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Apparently, Gore has never noted that climate scientists once thought snowfall would disappear. But wait, there’s more.

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

Apparently, Mr. Gore is unable to track the global monthly temperature either. There is no “global warming” this month.

Note to Al, the global temperature has been falling in December and January in concert with a strong La Niña.

When values are Negative: Cooling/La Niña | Positive: Warming/El Niño

Al, please note the pretty blue colors:

clickable global map of SST anomalies
Click to enlarge.

NOAA Aqua satellite TLT channel 5 shows us globally below normal at this point. I’ve helpfully added a big purple arrow to help Mr. Gore read the graph.

Dr. Roy Spencer takes him to task here. We’ll have the final January UAH global temperature anomaly in the next day or so. I hope Bill O’Reilly points it out to him on Fox.

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h/t to my local friend David Walton, who has been trying for two years now to get me a tip that I was not already on top of, proof that persistence pays off.

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99 thoughts on “The Goreacle: Snowstorms caused by global warming

  1. So al says ” Snow has two simple ingredients: cold and moisture.” So global warming cause both moisture and cold?

  2. http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2011/01/how-al-gore-could-save-world-admit-man.html

    Man-made climate-change – or anthropogenic climate change, or anthropogenic global warming – is what is driving the world to ruin.

    HOW?

    SIMPLE:

    It’s driving up the cost of everything including food. This is increasing global unemployment and national and international conflict.

    ALL OVER A HOAX.

    Oil is nearly TWICE as expensive now as in 2005, even though consumption/demand is only up 9%.

    YUP: In 2005 the world consumed 77 billion barrels and in 2009 only 85 billion – but TODAY, the price is nearly twice as high.

    SURE: the price isn’t any where near the outrageous BUBBLE PRICE of 2008 (a bubble which helped push the USA and world into a horrific recession!).

    Nevertheless, the price remains TOO DAMNED HIGH BASED ON DEMAND – especially if you consider that since 2006 BILLIONS MORE barrels of proven reserves have been located. OPEC had at least a 4% increase – and natural gas is in a global glut – we know have at least a 250 year reserve!! And Canadian oil sands and Brazil’s off-shore finds have all increased the supply of proven global energy reserves.

    One of the MAJOR reasons THE PRICE OF OIL IS TOO DAMN HIGH is … Al Gore.

    Well… er um: not just oil, but ALL ENERGY! And food. YUP: 2 of our most basic needs.

    Yup: Gore and his army of alarmists dupes and alarm-exploiters have successfully raised the cost of ALL ENERGY (and also FOOD because crops once reaped for food are now reaped for industrial energy).

    Costs for all manufacturing has gone up as a result – and manufactured goods, margins have declined for many, and the cost of living has suffered a double whammy: goods are more expensive and so is food.

    Al Gore can stop this INSANITY by admitting AGW was all wrong.

    Carbon taxes and other subsidies for so-called “green energy and the so-called green economy would vanish – meaning governments could cut deficits and this would immediately help lower interest rates.

    The use of CHEAP COAL could once again be increased, and quickly – thus lowering energy costs for everyone – including all industry.

    Food costs will come down for two reasons: more supply of food, and fertilizers (which need a lot of energy to be manufactured) would become cheaper again.

    People would immediately feel wealthier as gas prices and food prices decline almost immediately.

    This wealth effect would mean they would spend and invest more and this will make the global economy grow – leading to more prosperous and healthy lives for everyone – especially the poor.

    And the Third World could abandon fear of industrialization and begin to invest in the power plants and cement factories and asphalt factories – and yes sweat shops – so they can build homes and highways and roads and electrical grid which will lead them as it led us: to better way of life for all their people.

    THERE ARE ONLY TWO THINGS PREVENTING AN IMMEDIATE, ROBUST AND SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY:

    AL GORE AND AL QAEDA.

    OSAMA WON’T LISTEN TO REASON.

    WILL AL GORE?

  3. Well here in Oz the ABC is in full swing because of the heat in the higher 30’s. Last night- wait for it- “this warm weather is predicted to last for the next week” now here’s the punch line-” this is unprecendented”. No waiting to see what will actually happen of course.! The ABC journos are in full global warming mode.
    Guess what ABC , you know its called summer in Australia.

  4. “Mr Gore, could you please cite for us the author and journal dated five or more years ago in which higher-than-average snows were discussed to be “consistent” with catastrophic anthropogenic climate disruption?”

  5. Al Gore has a political agenda. Nothing what he says or infers can be taken as truth ( like all politicians ) . Hey ! The debate is NOT over, and the so-called science is not settled. Thats the real world.

  6. I got this from Zero Hedge.. I think it is apt.

    …just as I am affected by the maniac, so I am affected by most modern thinkers. That unmistakable mood or note that I hear from Hanwell [an insane asylum], I hear also from half the chairs of science and seats of learning to-day; and most of the mad doctors are mad doctors in more senses than one. They all have exactly that combination we have noted: the combination of an expansive and exhaustive reason with a contracted common sense. They are universal only in the sense that they take one thin explanation and carry it very far. But a pattern can stretch for ever and still be a small pattern. They see a chess-board white on black, and if the universe is paved with it, it is still white on black. Like the lunatic, they cannot alter their standpoint; they cannot make a mental effort and suddenly see it black on white.

    ~C.K. Chesterton

  7. Gore is completely right; since the snow storms of last year, the AGW scientists fall all over themselves to predict more snow through AGW. (Before those snowstorms, they predicted no snow, obviously, but they’re smart dogs. I guess they will also predict heavy floods in Australia from now on.) ;-)

  8. So Al, answer me this very simple question if you can:

    What type of weather can we expect to see if global warming was not happening?

  9. Dear Globull Warming God –

    The high today in my Denver suburb was ZERO. Could I have a little global warming please? We’re supposed to be around -20 tonight with wind chills in the -40 range.

    If we could get back to Friday’s 66 degrees, I would appreciate it.

    Signed,
    Freezing My A** Off

    PS: The dogs don’t want to go outside to do their business, so this is really important.

  10. Other questions answered by Al Gore, as being caused by man-made global warming:

    1) Does this dress make my backside look big? Global Warming! (even Tipper didn’t buy that one)

    2) Is this lunch meat still good? Global Warming!

    3) Shirts or Skins? Global Warming!

    4) Coke or Pepsi? Global Warming!

    5) Planes, trains, or automobiles? Global Warming!

    6) Beef or Pork Fried Rice? Global Warming!

    7) Can Luke eat 50 eggs? Global Warming!

    8) Hot things hot, cold things cold – Styrofoam, how do it know? Global Warming!

    9) Can a woodchuck chuck wood? Global Warming!

    10) Are there any funny questions that haven’t been made into an amusing GEICO commercial? Global Warming!

  11. Jeremy says:
    February 1, 2011 at 2:20 pm

    C’mon, Jer, let’s pile on, anyway! He’s better than Spongebob Squarepants any day!

    It hits a “patch” of cold air? So it’s not climate anymore but weather? No wonder he is in denial—no, more than denial, absolute The entire USA is just a “patch”, as the whole country sits in deep freeze.

  12. There are still plenty of reasons to mock Al Gore. He still wields power as one of those lobbyists that so many people despise. As an ex-VP and as the Nobel Prize winning global warming scam artist, there are many reasons to take him to task.

    But as Nolo asks, Is there anybody that knows less science that Al Gore, I consider that very, very unlikely. Certainly other than his ability to say that beetle infestation rates are caused global warming, he has nothing else.

    I would love the chance to debate him on global warming.

    John Kehr

  13. Hey, Big Al forgot to mention that global warming causes more teen pregnancies and erectile dysfunction as well. Where are the man’s priorities?

  14. “What type of weather can we expect to see if global warming was not happening?”

    That is easy: AGW causes all weather. Therefore, you would need a significant period of *no weather* to disprove AGW.

  15. “Last week on his show Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?””

    The historical average temperature for Central Park, New York City in January is 32.1 degrees F, in January 2011 it was 29.7, 2.4 degrees F below normal.

    The historical average precipitation for Central Park, New York City in January is 4.13 Inches, in January 2011 it was 4.93 inches, .8 inches above normal.

    The data is available here;

    http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx

    The reason that “southern New York turned into the tundra” is not because it received an additional .8 inches of precipitation in January, but rather because it was 2.4 degrees F below normal.

  16. So, when snowfall isn’t disappearing forever, it’s reappearing in greater quantities than ever?

    All we really need to know about the current state of climate science is that every time an anomaly occurs, virtually every climate scientist reflexively invokes AGW.

    Forget natural variability and a dearth of meaningful data on the history of our own climate. Nah, we don’t need facts, and what little facts we do have can be manipulated and tortured into saying pretty much whatever we want them to say.

    What an effing scam.

  17. Richard Lawson says:
    February 1, 2011 at 2:38 pm

    I’m not Al Gore but I can answer that! There would be no weather; temperatures would be perfect, the sun would shine most of the time and all wind would be a gentle breeze. It would only rain at night and just the right amount.

    Any other questions?

  18. Jeremy says:
    Again, there’s almost no reason to pile onto Gore anymore. His words are pure humor at this point.

    But it’s so much fun. Especially, since Spotted-Owl has done his best to get filthy rich at the expense of the rest of this country and, indeed, the world. I have no sympathy.

  19. “…it means a loyal willingness to say that black is white when [AGW] Party discipline demands this. But it means also the ability to believe that black is white, and more, to know that black is white, and to forget that one has ever believed the contrary.”

    George Orwell – “1984”

    Al Gore – 2011

  20. Robert E. Phelan says:
    February 1, 2011 at 2:58 pm

    Hey, Big Al forgot to mention that global warming causes more teen pregnancies and erectile dysfunction as well. Where are the man’s priorities?

    Regarding ED, like Gore engorging himself on carbon credits, the profit is in the pill. GW melts Frosty’s popsicle.

  21. Lot’s of BS out there for sure, but one thing that everyone who considers themself a student of climate ought to know is that the greater rates of accumulation of snow occur during warmer periods in earth’s history, not glacial periods. This seems counter-intuitive to the novice student of climate, but a tens of thousands of years of ice core history shows this fact quite clearly:

    The reason is of course that warmer temps allow greater amounts of evaporation to occur which can lead to great accumulation rates during warmer periods. During glacials periods, there is less accumulation each year, but because temps are lower, the snow that does accumulate does not melt during the summers and so the glaciers grow.

    The lesson to take away is this, when the next glacial period comes, it will be not be marked by increasing accumulations of snow in the winter, but decreasing accumulations, with colder temps, but those colder temps will extend into the spring, summer, and fall, and so the snow won’t melt and the glaciers will grow once more.

  22. MikeCal says:
    February 1, 2011 at 3:00 pm

    Billy Liar says:
    February 1, 2011 at 3:02 pm

    Thank you gentlemen. Thats cleared that up nicely.

    In all seriousness though, wouldn’t you just love to see him struggle to get his vast intellect into gear when asked that simple question.

  23. Mr. Gore should be asked another question by Bill O’Riley:
    If the warm air was caused by Global Warming, what caused the widespread extra cold air that has turned much of the East into popsickleland?
    Gore is making this stuff up as he goes along, and drags everyone down who puts up with him.

  24. “Robert E. Phelan says:
    February 1, 2011 at 2:58 pm

    Hey, Big Al forgot to mention that global warming causes more teen pregnancies and erectile dysfunction as well. Where are the man’s priorities?”

    Oh my, I just had an idea about how we can spin global warming so that environmentalists will like it…

    Global warming reduces male fertility since testicles need to be relatively cool! This means if we amp up the global temperatures we can greatly reduce the population of the human race!

    Huzzah!

  25. Al notes that “Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?” and… I appreciate the question.

    As it turns out, the scientific community has been addressing this particular question for some time now…”

    Really? That “particular question”? Why New York has become tundra?

    Poor Al. He really has been gored, or something.

  26. RE:
    R. Gates says:
    February 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    Lot’s of BS out there for sure, but one thing that everyone who considers themself a student of climate ought to know is that the greater rates of accumulation of snow occur during warmer periods in earth’s history, not glacial periods. This seems counter-intuitive to the novice student of climate, but a tens of thousands of years of ice core history shows this fact quite clearly:

    The reason is of course that warmer temps allow greater amounts of evaporation to occur which can lead to great accumulation rates during warmer periods.
    ——————-
    Have you communicated this to Dr. Viner who in 2000 said snow would be a thing of the past in England in 10 years?
    It is convenient to generate science on the fly.

  27. It’s true! It’s true! The crown has made it clear.
    The climate must be perfect all the year.

    A law was made a distant moon ago here:
    July and August cannot be too hot.
    And there’s a legal limit to the snow here
    In Camelot.
    The winter is forbidden till December
    And exits March the second on the dot.
    By order, summer lingers through September
    In Camelot.
    Camelot! Camelot!
    I know it sounds a bit bizarre,
    But in Camelot, Camelot
    That’s how conditions are.
    The rain may never fall till after sundown.
    By eight, the morning fog must disappear.
    In short, there’s simply not
    A more congenial spot
    For happily-ever-aftering than here
    In Camelot.

    Camelot! Camelot!
    I know it gives a person pause,
    But in Camelot, Camelot
    Those are the legal laws.
    The snow may never slush upon the hillside.
    By nine p.m. the moonlight must appear.
    In short, there’s simply not
    A more congenial spot
    For happily-ever-aftering than here
    In Camelot.

  28. So if Global Warming brings more snow to the Northern Hemisphere, what would the beginning of an ice age look like?

    Hot and dry?

  29. R. Gates says: February 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    “The lesson to take away is this, when the next glacial period comes, it will be not be marked by increasing accumulations of snow in the winter, but decreasing accumulations, with colder temps, but those colder temps will extend into the spring, summer, and fall, and so the snow won’t melt and the glaciers will grow once more.”

    The next glacial period aside, the primary reason for the record January snowfall amounts in Southern New York;

    http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/01/27/2011-01-27_new_york_snowstorm_new_january_record_set_as_19inch_snowfall_pushes_city_past_19.html

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/27/us-usa-weather-business-idUSTRE70Q6M120110127

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-27/winter-storm-may-ease-as-new-yorkers-start-the-day-update1-.html

    is that January’s temperatures were significantly colder than the period of our historical record, i.e. January 1st, 1869 to present for Central Park, New York City:

    http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~SelectStation~USA~NY

    Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?” and the answer is, because it was cold. Do you agree?

  30. I saw an interview with an interrogator once.
    He was asked about deceiving the subject.

    His reply was that it was easier to tell them the truth.
    If you lie to them, you have to try and remember what you told them.

    If they catch you in a lie; Then you will lose any trust that has been built as well as any hope of getting any further cooperation from them.

    The AGW crowd would do well to heed that advice.
    And they wonder why people are skeptical.

  31. I say its the volcanoes putting the additional moisture into the atmosphere now. Also the ash aerosols and gases are the driving force for the additional cloud formation and the ability to bring that moisture back down in the form of rains, floods, snow and heavy snows.  Eyjafjallajokull melted 100 million cubic meters of ice into steam, but there’s been a lot of other eruptions since then. The one I posted above, Merapi, Anak Krakatau, the one below and others.

    New explosions at Kirishima shatter windows 8 km away – and its all caught on webcams! | Eruptions | Big Think

    http://bigthink.com/ideas/26712

    Eddie

  32. Even my liberal friends think Al Gore is an idiot. Keep on talking Al. So long and thanks for the internet.

  33. “Lot’s of BS out there for sure, but one thing that everyone who considers themself a student of climate ought to know is that the greater rates of accumulation of snow occur during warmer periods in earth’s history, not glacial periods.”

    I guess these “students” need to put a dunce cap on.

    Looks like R. Gates has a lot of letters to write to Washington.

  34. Nolo Contendere says:
    February 1, 2011 at 2:35 pm
    “Is there anybody on the planet who knows less about science than Al?”

    Countless millions on the planet know less about science than Al…

    … but they’re all dead ;o)

  35. R. Gates says:
    February 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm
    the greater rates of accumulation of snow occur during warmer periods in earth’s history
    ===================================================
    Gates, that’s odd. The prediction was warmer winters, longer growing seasons, and less snow. Animals and plants are having to migrate higher, polar bears have no ice.
    Birds are migrating north sooner and migrating south later. Species are going extinct in record numbers. There will even be world wide famines from the heat and drought.

    The USDA has even been moving the plant hardiness zones north.

    So far we’ve had record early winters, record low temperatures, record snow fall…………

  36. Here in Australia the AGW crowd have been turning their ‘story’ around…it’s a bit like a supertanker; it’s being going down the ‘increasing drought’ for so many years with clowns like Tim ‘Ghost Metropolis’ Flannery predicting that BRISBANE would become desert about now!
    Their spin machine, like a stunned boxer trying to regain his composure is now frantically attributing all severe weather to GW… but you can hear that they spout the line without the same conviction they once had.
    The wheels are coming off the wagon, the public are losing faith…great.

    Finally the ABC and the BOM, having failed to predict the recent floods, are now over predicting everything about this cyclone. I’ve made a note of some of their claims for future reference.

  37. Anthony the first thing that caught my eye with the algore pic were the three monitors. I almost missed the 32 in. flat screen on in the background.

  38. @ R Gates

    I hope you will flesh out the details of that; how the increased albedo leads to greater warmth and then more snow and then more albedo, leading to more warmth.
    It sounds like an astrological recipe; take a few facts, add whatever you want, then serve repeatedly until somebody swallows it.

  39. R. Gates says:
    February 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    “The reason is of course that warmer temps allow greater amounts of evaporation to occur which can lead to great accumulation rates [of snow] during warmer periods.”

    You might understand what you tried to say, but you did not say it. Yes, warmer temps cause more evaporation but they prevent snow. You have to have cooler temps for snow. If warmer temps cause precipitation, it is rain not snow.

    Also, notice that your toy model of glacier production embodies the standard communist assumption of absolute minimal change. You posit cool temps and low moisture causing light snow indefinitely as your glacier builds. What happened to weather fronts? Must there be no change for centuries to build a glacier? One good rainy spell and all that slowly accumulated snow disappears. Surely, you do not really believe that such conditions have ever existed except on mountain tops? No wonder you are all bothered by arctic melt. In your mind, the Arctic must be forever unchanging.

  40. Re: the notion that AGW increases moisture. Nonsense. Natural sources are at work here. When the AO flips negative and the Pacific waxes female, the loopy jet stream reaches down into moisture naturally available near the Gulf of Mexico. It hauls that moisture up into the frigid temps coming down from the Arctic. The result is cold with lots of snow. These conditions have happened before, exactly in the same way. And when CO2 was less than it is now.

  41. Unfortunately the warmists issued this report in 2009:
    2009 Global Climate change impacts
    US Global Change Research Program
    Note below they said in 2009 report that there would be less precipitation falling as Snow in the North East and more as rain. How many more lies do Gore and others think they can get away with?
    See below:
    “Since 1970, the annual average temperature in the Northeast has
    increased by 2°F, with winter temperatures rising twice this much.150
    Warming has resulted in many other climate-related changes,
    including:
    More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F
    • A longer growing season
    • Increased heavy precipitation
    • Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain
    • Reduced snowpack
    • Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers
    • Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river flows
    • Rising sea surface temperatures and sea level”

    I am going broke this year getting snow removal in NJ and all kinds of snow records have been set!!!

  42. (the Goreacle) These are not the climate events you are looking for.

    (MSM) These are not the climate events we are looking for.

    (The Goreacle) Move along now.

    (MSM) Move along now.

    No disrespect intended to Obi-Wan.

  43. CO2 levels track, but trail global warming, by 800 years. It’s driven from ocean waters by warmth. Colder waters absorb more of it. From 1940 to 1970 CO2 was rising even as cooling was happening. We find times (Medieval warming) when the earth was warmer than present, in pre industrial times. The significant element of the solar output that our climate tracks is the magnetic. More sun spots means we get warmer, fewer means we get colder. A recent Japanese climate study proved that the Maunder Minimum deep solar quiet caused the little ice age. It also proved the Svensmark theory, that weaker magnetic shielding by the sun means we get more clouds and precipitation. That’s the major player in the climate shift. The Earth is about to go colder for decades due to our current deep solar quiet.

  44. Washington politicians:

    “….and having no snow is consistent with what the models will predict….”

    3:17 video

  45. The more I hear about Al Gore, the more I wonder if the evil (greedy) side of him is going mad. Any half-sane person would realize by now they are on a losing wicket and slink off to take their ‘earnings’ to use on an unrelated venture, hoping to turn this recent infamy back into more fame and fortune!

  46. Climate science as practiced by AGW boffins is NOT science. It’s climate narrative.

    Anyone claiming proficiency in science, and everyone with an undergraduate degree in science, must be familiar with Karl Popper and falsification:

    http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/popper_falsification.html

    These considerations led me in the winter of 1919-20 to conclusions which I may now reformulate as follows.

    1. It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations.

    2. Confirmations should count only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is to say, if, unenlightened by the theory in question, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory.

    3. Every “good” scientific theory is a prohibition: it forbids certain things to happen. The more a theory forbids, the better it is.

    4. A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory (as people often think) but a vice.

    5. Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or to refute it. Testability is falsifiability; but there are degrees of testability: some theories are more testable, more exposed to refutation, than others; they take, as it were, greater risks.

    6. Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; and this means that it can be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory. (I now speak in such cases of “corroborating evidence.”)

    7. Some genuinely testable theories, when found to be false, are still upheld by their admirers — for example by introducing ad hoc some auxiliary assumption, or by reinterpreting the theory ad hoc in such a way that it escapes refutation. Such a procedure is always possible, but it rescues the theory from refutation only at the price of destroying, or at least lowering, its scientific status. (I later described such a rescuing operation as a “conventionalist twist” or a “conventionalist stratagem.”)

    One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability.

  47. Saw this first over at Daily Caller. It’s good to see the cross post in an area where it can reach a different audience.

  48. Someday Al Gore will be sitting in his office, and he’ll realize that there is no global warming.

    Then, he’ll turn to his scientists and say, “Why the hell did I ever listen to you guys?”

  49. OK Al baby, now please explain to us why the longest lasting and biggest cyclone exists on Jupiter. It is hardly warm out there. (300 years and counting). Al needs to stop believing in this stuff and take a course in Chod. One coming up in Bhutan in April.

  50. The scientist in the Independent article was referring only to snowfall in Britain, not worldwide.

    As for the increased snowfall in the U.S., that doesn’t mean it’s getting colder, it means there’s more precipitation. Even if it were getting colder, you have to look at average annual global temperatures over many decades, not a brief, localized cold front.

  51. I guess mother nature (gaia) was left of the distribution list from CRU.
    She is obviously unaware that the snow belt is supposed to move further north, not south.

  52. GORE:
    “As it turns out, the scientific community has been addressing this particular question for some time now and they say that increased heavy snowfalls are completely consistent with what they have been predicting…………..
    In fact, scientists have been warning for at least two decades that global warming could make snowstorms more severe. “

    June 4, 1999
    “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model”

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990604081638.htm

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/abs/399452a0.html

    March 2000
    “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
    “within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. ”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

    Nov. 17, 2010
    “Global Warming Could Cool Down Northern Temperatures in Winter”

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101117114028.htm

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568

    What I want to know right now is does global warming cause less snow or more snow in the mid latitudes or not?

  53. Al, please note the pretty blue colors:
    ———
    So what direction are the moisture bearing winds across the USA?

    From the Pacific or the Atlantic!

    There is colder than average water around California but it is average around the more northern seaboard.

    For the Atlantic there is a strip of above average temps at the top of the map.

    It would be of interest to show a map with the tracks of moist air parcels shown.

    I did go looking for synoptic maps over time for the USA but came up empty. It looks like USA weather reporting has been dumbed down.

  54. Craig Moore (February 1, 2.57 p.m.) has a link to a symposium at which Al Gore is to speak.
    I note from the Agenda that his speech is scheduled for 5.00 p.m. – after a packed programme of Really Interesting Stuff. By that time, if my experience is anything to go by, everyone will either be asleep or obsessed with the thought: ‘How much longer before I can get a drink..?’

  55. @ ShrNfr says:
    February 1, 2011 at 10:08 pm
    =======================

    Al Gore believes nothing from what he says to the sheep, he’s probably wishing for some victims now with the cyclone in Australia, just so he can get his propaganda going on forever.

  56. As a non scientist looking at these supposed climate scientists, promoting doom and gloom one can only say.
    They may gain some respect when they look at the big picture, firstly on a very regular basis, sinususoidal so to speak occur ice ages and interglacials. These are big and have a cause, find it and prove it.
    Next the interglacials and ice ages have large swings in temperature and climate, big enough to have a major cause, find it and prove it.

    This would allow even myself to start calling them scientists. Then perhaps one could believe that maybe they know what they are talking about. Until that happens they have the same credibility as a Quack Dr , a snake oil salesman or a common carpet bagger.

    This Gore fellow in days of yore would have been put in stocks and given some humble pie, or in the wild west tarred and feathered.

  57. Good old Al, the world’s getting warmer so more moisture, its a simple physics fact that warm air contains more moisture, according to Al and many others of his fellow travellers.

    So the Sahara Desert will soon bloom, and be fertile, as I understand the air is very hot in the Sahara so it must contain lots of moisture, so the desert drought is over?

  58. Craig Moore says: February 1, 2011 at 2:57 pm

    Severe weather permitting, Al Gore is scheduled to be the keynote speaker at this global warming conference: http://www.fortheforest.org/page_77

    This was in the Aspen paper yesterday. It not only sold out immediately, 400 seats, but they then offered and again sold out another 400 standing-room-only tickets, then added a video feed to an auditorium. It is disappointing that people will pay to listen to this idiot.

    R. Gates says: February 1, 2011 at 4:02 pm
    the greater rates of accumulation of snow occur during warmer periods in earth’s history

    When it is warm it rains when it is cold it snows. Get enough snow and you get glaciers. Glaciers don’t come from rain.

    LazyTeenager says: February 2, 2011 at 12:39 am
    Al, please note the pretty blue colors:
    ———
    So what direction are the moisture bearing winds across the USA?

    From the Pacific or the Atlantic!

    There is colder than average water around California but it is average around the more northern seaboard.

    If you were not being lazy you would have seen that the moisture for this storm came off the southern Baja and the Gulf of Mexico, both below normal.

  59. Just a general comment about snow accumulation and warmer temps:

    Over a hundred thousands years of ice core history tells the story quite clearly– when it gets warmer, snow accumulates faster. The coldest periods, i.e. glacial advances, were the periods of lowest actual accumulation of snow. There is not one expert who would dispute this fact. Now, we are definitely not in a glacial period right now, nor anything close. This could change very quickly however, and the ice core record clearly shows that as well. If it does change, expect the accumulation of snow to decrease over a period of time with colder winters and colder summers. During the Maunder minimum for example, the ice cores show that the rates of accumulation of snow (at least in the Greenland ice cores) decreased, even though the winters and summers were colder.

  60. I have a question for the Scientists . . . . What will the next “Grand Delusion” be?

    What statistical measure can we use to detect it BEFORE it becomes “fully blown”

    AND . . .
    I just wanted to remind those of the Emergency Services area that since we have had a record amount of SNOW in recent days we can ANTICIPATE a record amount of water once the temperature rises.

    I hope that this message can get to the people needed so that the necessary provisions can be made to ACCOMMODATE Mother Nature! Like where, the flooding is to be anticipated, how much and warning to those in the projected areas.

  61. R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 6:58 am

    “Just a general comment about snow accumulation and warmer temps:

    Over a hundred thousands years of ice core history tells the story quite clearly– when it gets warmer, snow accumulates faster. The coldest periods, i.e. glacial advances, were the periods of lowest actual accumulation of snow. There is not one expert who would dispute this fact. Now, we are definitely not in a glacial period right now, nor anything close. This could change very quickly however, and the ice core record clearly shows that as well. If it does change, expect the accumulation of snow to decrease over a period of time with colder winters and colder summers. During the Maunder minimum for example, the ice cores show that the rates of accumulation of snow (at least in the Greenland ice cores) decreased, even though the winters and summers were colder.”

    But the reason that “southern New York turned into the tundra?” is because January temps were significantly colder than our short historical record. Does the 25% of you that’s skeptical agree with this fact? Or are you just going to continue playing obfuscation games like Al?

  62. R. Gates, please, we are talking about an inflated 0.7°C in the past 130 years, and this causes more snow? BS! The typical AGW flatulence is that warmer is dryer, but using their logic it is wetter too! Heaviest snowfall in my experience occurs above 10°F, below that it diminishes rapidly with temperature. The accumulation toward glaciers is not volume of snow, rather that it remains from one year to the next, which can only be caused by cold. Warm causes snow to melt.

  63. Ian Mc Vindicated says:
    February 1, 2011 at 2:36 pm
    Al Gore has a political agenda.

    No, he has a “money agenda”. He has never earned an honest buck in his life, so when he lost to Bush in 2k, he had to figure out a way to live. he did. it is called scamming the public.

  64. R. Gates writes:

    Goodness, man, your mind is stuck in the eternal calm of a glacier. This conversation was not about glaciers. This conversation was about changes in temperatures in the last two or three years and its possible effects on what we are observing today. Are you not capable of talking about weather fronts and weather that is changing?

  65. It would be a waste of my time to describe Mr. Gore in any other term but:

    CLUELESS!

    (And a liar, too–refer to Jimbo’s February 2, 2011 at 12:23 am post)

  66. Sam Parsons says:
    February 2, 2011 at 8:34 am
    R. Gates writes:

    Goodness, man, your mind is stuck in the eternal calm of a glacier. This conversation was not about glaciers. This conversation was about changes in temperatures in the last two or three years and its possible effects on what we are observing today. Are you not capable of talking about weather fronts and weather that is changing?
    ____

    I was responding to the general blathering on by certain groups about a new glacial period or a cooling period when big snowstorms hit. Neither the last glacial period, nor cooler periods like the so-called “Little Ice Age” were marked by increasing snow accumulations– but rather, the exact opposite.

    In regards to weather. Yep, it happens…and when the world gets warmer you get both more heavy rain and snow events, and when the world gets cooler you get less. Simple physics born out by over a hundred thousand years of ice core data. The fact that 2010 was the wettest year in the modern records is important data, but some AGW skeptics would prefer to dismiss this fact. and focus instead on ad hominem attacks.

  67. Steve Keohane says:
    February 2, 2011 at 8:26 am
    R. Gates, please, we are talking about an inflated 0.7°C in the past 130 years, and this causes more snow? BS! The typical AGW flatulence is that warmer is dryer, but using their logic it is wetter too! Heaviest snowfall in my experience occurs above 10°F, below that it diminishes rapidly with temperature. The accumulation toward glaciers is not volume of snow, rather that it remains from one year to the next, which can only be caused by cold. Warm causes snow to melt.

    ____
    Uh, did you read my long post on warmth and increased precipitation, and cold and glacial advance? You repeated many of my points. But in terms of the world being warmer, regardless of the cause of the warmth, a warmer world is a world with greater precipitation. 2010 was one of the warmest on record and was THE wettest on record. All consistent with the physics behind evaporation and proven out by hundreds of thousands of years of ice core data…

  68. R Gates…

    Speaking of ‘general blathering’, Gates says: “…when the world gets warmer you get both more heavy rain and snow events, and when the world gets cooler you get less.”

    Based on Gates’ own assumptions, the planet has been cooling.

  69. Just The Facts says:
    February 2, 2011 at 7:52 am

    “But the reason that “southern New York turned into the tundra?” is because January temps were significantly colder than our short historical record. Does the 25% of you that’s skeptical agree with this fact? Or are you just going to continue playing obfuscation games like Al?”

    ___
    Did you have a specific scientific/climate related question here? It’s been a cold winter in some parts of the N. Hemisphere and the immediate causes are well known and it is only the more distant causes that are under debate (AGW vs. Natural Fluctuations). We can talk about the AO, or La Nina, or the NAO, or even the PDO. We could talk even about the current rather lethargic sun. All of this, however, would not change the fact that 2010 was the wettest on record, and this is not an indication of an impending global cool-down, but rather, the exact opposite. This is simple physics and is diplayed quite readily in hundreds of thousands of years of ice core data spanning the last glacial period into the holocene.

  70. Smokey says:
    February 2, 2011 at 11:30 am
    R Gates…

    Speaking of ‘general blathering’, Gates says: “…when the world gets warmer you get both more heavy rain and snow events, and when the world gets cooler you get less.”

    Based on Gates’ own assumptions, the planet has been cooling.

    ____
    You are quite out of the loop on the facts here Smokey. 2010 was the wettest year on record and one of the warmest. Warmth=greater precip. Always has. But carry on with creating your own laws of physics….

  71. @R. Gates

    “Over a hundred thousands years of ice core history tells the story quite clearly– when it gets warmer, snow accumulates faster. ”

    So, essentially, you wouldn’t mind posting some proper references to said fact of yours to the rest of us who appear not to read the same story the same way you read it?

    On a side note, it always gets warmer from winter to summer, although during that time it usually then tend to snow less the warmer it gets (to believe otherwise is just belief). Ironically, for you and your hippie generalizations, it actually snows more going from summer to winter as in it snows more the colder it gets (but of course rational people know this because it is observed fact.)

  72. R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 11:32 am

    “Did you have a specific scientific/climate related question here?”

    Yes, very simple. What was the primary reason that New York City received record snowfall amounts in January 2011? Was it the because precipitation was .8 inches above average or because the temperature was 2.4 degrees F below average?

  73. Gates says:

    “Neither the last glacial period, nor cooler periods like the so-called Little Ice Age were marked by increasing snow accumulations– but rather, the exact opposite.”
    Where is all that increased precipitation?

    Gates takes it as gospel that government agencies would never “adjust” their putative facts in order to gain extra funding. But funny thing, these links demonstrate a contradiction from the official Party line…

    Precipitation is now declining.

    We know that Gates feeds off the pseudo-science purveyed by the non-science, censoring blog RealClimate. But he runs into a brick wall of facts here at WUWT: contrary to Gates’ true belief, relative humidity is declining. Relative humidity translates into precipitation at some point on the adiabatic chart. Less R.H. = less precipitation.

    And extreme weather events are declining – even in modern times when reporting of every death is easy. The fact is, the weather is moderating.

    So: less flooding, because the atmosphere holds less moisture, and fewer severe weather events. But facts don’t matter to the Kool Aid contingent. They’re frightened of this clown’s always-wrong predictions of DO-O-O-O-O-M!

  74. Just The Facts says:
    February 2, 2011 at 12:03 pm
    R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 11:32 am

    “Did you have a specific scientific/climate related question here?”

    Yes, very simple. What was the primary reason that New York City received record snowfall amounts in January 2011? Was it the because precipitation was .8 inches above average or because the temperature was 2.4 degrees F below average?
    ______
    An effect cannot be its own cause…i.e. .8 inches of precipitation over average cannot be the reason there was .8 inches precipitation over average. By I know where you’re going with this…is heavy snow caused by extreme cold or extreme moisture?

    The ice core data and physics are clear on this…colder temps lead to less snow accumulation. Somewhere, all that moisture that fell on NY had to be evaporated and less moisture is evaporated when there is less energy to evaporate it…that’s why colder periods see less accumulation of snow. But this is all relative of course, and has bounds at the extreme where it makes no difference how much colder or warmer it is. With extreme cold you’ll see no snow and with extreme heat, you’ll also see no snow. A quick glance at this chart that I’ve supplied many times tells the story nicely over the past 20,000 years or so for what happened with the Greenland Ice Cap:

    And here’s a nice simple read on the science behind how we know that cold glacial periods see lower accumulations of snow:

    http://www.oxygentimerelease.com/A/ScienceOxygen/p5.htm

  75. 1DandyTroll says:
    February 2, 2011 at 12:01 pm
    @R. Gates

    “Over a hundred thousands years of ice core history tells the story quite clearly– when it gets warmer, snow accumulates faster. ”

    So, essentially, you wouldn’t mind posting some proper references to said fact of yours to the rest of us who appear not to read the same story the same way you read it?

    On a side note, it always gets warmer from winter to summer, although during that time it usually then tend to snow less the warmer it gets (to believe otherwise is just belief). Ironically, for you and your hippie generalizations, it actually snows more going from summer to winter as in it snows more the colder it gets (but of course rational people know this because it is observed fact.)

    _____
    Here’s a few links for those who really want to research the relationship between warmer temps and greater snow accumulation:

    http://www.oxygentimerelease.com/A/ScienceOxygen/p5.htm

    http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/icecore/review.php

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/greenland/greenland.html

    http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/7a.html (great interactive learning pages)

    _____

    And on a side note, the snowiest month in Denver CO, near where I live is March…as The 2nd snowiest is Nov. and the 3rd snowiest is April. Of course, there are always exceptions, like Dec. of 1982 when an MJO event brought Pineapple express moisture right across the Pacific, Southern CA, and then into Colorado where we got a big snow storm…but it was warm Pacific waters that were the initial energy source for that snow.

  76. R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 2:55 pm

    “An effect cannot be its own cause…i.e. .8 inches of precipitation over average cannot be the reason there was .8 inches precipitation over average.”

    What? The question here is whether the primary cause of record snowfall in New York, was increased precipitation or decreased temperature. If it was warmer, more of the precipitation would have been rain versus snow. My question stands as stated: “What was the primary reason that New York City received record snowfall amounts in January 2011? Was it the because precipitation was .8 inches above average or because the temperature was 2.4 degrees F below average?”

    “A quick glance at this chart that I’ve supplied many times tells the story nicely over the past 20,000 years or so for what happened with the Greenland Ice Cap:”

    No matter how hard you try at redirection and obfuscation, this thread is not about “the past 20,000 years”. When Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?”, he was referring to January, 2011, not the “past 20,000 years”. Regardless of what occurs during periods of glaciation, the answer to Bill’s question is, because it was cold.

  77. Good! We can all agree that there is no need for increasing government control and legislation of water usage in the agricultural states or anywhere else, because the result of global warming is now before us: increased water vapor and precipitation. Latest examples – extreme snowstorms in winter and floods in summer.

    However, you can bet that the expensive increases in government control of water resources are marching on full force based on scarey AGW drought models:

    http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/pending_legislation/#Water

  78. Just The Facts says:
    February 2, 2011 at 3:28 pm
    R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 2:55 pm

    “An effect cannot be its own cause…i.e. .8 inches of precipitation over average cannot be the reason there was .8 inches precipitation over average.”

    What? The question here is whether the primary cause of record snowfall in New York, was increased precipitation or decreased temperature. If it was warmer, more of the precipitation would have been rain versus snow. My question stands as stated: “What was the primary reason that New York City received record snowfall amounts in January 2011? Was it the because precipitation was .8 inches above average or because the temperature was 2.4 degrees F below average?”

    “A quick glance at this chart that I’ve supplied many times tells the story nicely over the past 20,000 years or so for what happened with the Greenland Ice Cap:”

    No matter how hard you try at redirection and obfuscation, this thread is not about “the past 20,000 years”. When Bill O’Reilly asked, “Why has southern New York turned into the tundra?”, he was referring to January, 2011, not the “past 20,000 years”. Regardless of what occurs during periods of glaciation, the answer to Bill’s question is, because it was cold…
    ______
    Seems you and Bill have answered all the questions…so why are you asking me?

    But your assumptions I think are completely wrong, and thus Bill’s question indicates his ignorance for how weather and climate work. Are you and he looking for a “primary” cause of events that have multiple equally important and interacting causes. The climate, like the weather, and like all natural systems have multiple interacting causes.

    Snowstorms (like all weather) happen from the right combination of moisture, temperature, pressure, jet stream location, etc. etc. etc. Thus, the weather in NY is due to all these. A little nudge or change here or there and NY is cold but dry. Change something else and its warm and wet, and yet another change and its warm and dry. The way the physics on earth work is that when its relatively warmer you tend to get bigger snowstorms.

    So let’s go back to your question:

    “What was the primary reason that New York City received record snowfall amounts in January 2011? Was it the because precipitation was .8 inches above average or because the temperature was 2.4 degrees F below average?”

    There is no “primary” reason for the record snowfall amount, as there many equally important interacting reasons, any one of which, if you took it away, would have prevented NY City from having record snowfall n 2011. This probably drives certain types of people crazy as they want a black and white universe, single-cause=single effect universe, but it just ain’t that way.

  79. R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 4:34 pm

    “so why are you asking me?”

    Because I wanted to see if you would answer the question honestly, or just continue to contort yourself to avoid facing the facts.

    “But your assumptions I think are completely wrong,”

    How do you know my assumptions, and can you detail them here for us?

    “Are you and he looking for a “primary” cause of events that have multiple equally important and interacting causes.”

    These are simple stratagems that any reasonable person can see through. You are trying to associate me with Bill O’Reilly, as if that somehow distracts from the facts that I’ve presented, and you are drawing attention to my use of the qualifier “primary”, in order to try to drag me into a semantical argument. I have no time for these games, there is still so much to be learned…

    “This probably drives certain types of people crazy as they want a black and white universe, single-cause=single effect universe, but it just ain’t that way.”

    Funny, that seems to describe Al Gore and the Warmists perfectly…

  80. “Apparently, Gore has never noted that climate scientists once thought snowfall would disappear. ”

    Hmmm… so many misleading thoughts in one sentence.
    * It is obvious that NO climate scientist ever thought snowfall would disappear.
    * Since the blog entry was about snowfall in NY, perhaps climate scientists have been suggesting snowfall would disappear from New York. But no, the article quoted was about England.
    * Perhaps climate scientists thought snow would disappear from England? But no, the very article that was linked to states “winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event””.

    So … some climate scientists thought snow would become rare someplace other than where Gore was talking about. Gore never noted what everyone else never noted.

    “Apparently, Mr. Gore is unable to track the global monthly temperature either. There is no “global warming” this month.”
    So now global warming is a month-by-month phenomenon!?

    Of course, we know that climate trends should be compared over 30 years or longer. So Jan & Dec must have been cooler than average compared to some 30+ year period to repute “global warming”. But the graph only compares to the last 20 years (the two warmest decades in recent history). So I tracked global temperatures from a couple sources that used 30+ year climatologies, and they all show Dec was still well above average (and longer periods would show it even more above average). Jan data was not in, but it looks like it should still be (at least slightly) above the long-term average.

    So an exceptionally cold (by recent standards) January that still comes in close to long-term averages somehow shows that global warming has stopped? Show me a decade (or even a year!) that comes in below long-term (30+ year) averages and I will seriously consider that global warming has stopped. (Many people expect this change, based on factors such as the sun or the oceans as the key drivers. If they are right, then such a trend should be happening soon. The next decade should prove very interesting to theories of global warming and its causes. )

    There’s plenty of legitimate places to call out Gore on his scientific knowledge. Calling him out over such questionable issues seems to be showing weakness, not strength.

  81. R. Gates says: February 2, 2011 at 11:24 am

    Steve Keohane says: February 2, 2011 at 8:26 am
    [...]

    ____
    Uh, did you read my long post on warmth and increased precipitation, and cold and glacial advance? You repeated many of my points. But in terms of the world being warmer, regardless of the cause of the warmth, a warmer world is a world with greater precipitation. 2010 was one of the warmest on record and was THE wettest on record. All consistent with the physics behind evaporation and proven out by hundreds of thousands of years of ice core data…

    Since you claim to live near Denver, I am sure you have heard the years of gloom and doom of no more snow for the ski industry, not only in the state rags, but Pelosi and Reid have specifically spoken to the demise of the ski industry. When does this state of affairs begin? We’ve been hearing this same story for over a decade…

  82. So, if everyone is truly concerned…why are they still using electricity for their homes, laptops, TVs and other toys. Why are they driving to work? Why are they shopping at stores that use utilities and materials that create pollution in their manufacture? Why aren’t we moving out to the country to live life like primitive peoples? DOES NO ONE CARE?
    I’m sitting in a heated house with lights, using my laptop & wifi internet connection to write this while wearing mass produced clothing…

  83. Been surf’n around checking out various threads.
    The thing I’m stuck by is how personal and nasty these article are.
    Ridiculing people like Gore is great for filler.
    Then you bring up a few cherry picked graphs and call it settled.
    It’s like you’re playing dodge ball rather than sincere learning.

    When do you review the mass of evidence becoming available with every passing season? For example what about the following ?

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html

    10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change

    Am I to think all this is bs?

  84. Oops, tried coding something and lost it. This is from that NOAA link above:

    “Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world.

    Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface.

    Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere. ”
    ~ ~ ~
    {And the Greenland ice mass has had another tough year.}
    Doesn’t all of this mean something?

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