Monbiot's prediction – 1 year to go

en: Picture of George Monbiot at the Make Pove...

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Just one year to go to check on the accuracy of this prediction, claimed by warming proponent George Monbiot in 2002.

Haunting the Library writes:

Within as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.The impending crisis will be accelerated by the depletion of both phosphate fertiliser and the water used to grow crops. Every kilogram of beef we consume, according to research by the agronomists David Pimental and Robert Goodland, requires around 100,000 litres of water. Aquifers are beginning the run dry all over the world, largely because of abstraction by farmers.

Guardian. Why Vegans Were Right All Along.

And it wasn’t just eating meat, that Monbiot was demanding we ditch – “vegetarians who continue to consume milk and eggs scarcely reduce their impact on the ecosystem”. As the title puts it, “Vegans were right all along”. Give up meat, eggs, cheese, butter and milk, or we’ll all be starving within as little as ten years, he warned.

Monbiot is not a racist. He is not even a neo-Malthusian. But in his eagerness to impose austerity on everyone, he gets taken in by the arguments of those who are. It’s why he earnestly believed the patently ludicrous claim that it took 100,000 litres of water to make 1 kilogram of beef, a risible claim that anyone not ideologically blinded would instantly dismiss as nonsense, as he himself was forced to do as 2012 approached.

It is the anti-immigrant and anti-human agenda of the people who warn of “scarce resources” and “too many people” that is the real danger, not the idle bravado and loose chatter of a bunch of guys on an internet chat-room.

More here at Haunting the Library

h/t to Andrew Bolt

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L Nettles

I believe “misanthrope” is the word you are looking for.

Jeff

just think of all the green credits I can capture by opening a cattle ranch and deciding NOT to raise any cattle …
I’ll be rich !!!

wws

Monbiot is realizing that his only real mistake – a mistake that his fellow travelers are now correcting – was to make his prediction for 10 years and not for 100, or 1000. Obviously the only predictions that one will never have to apologize for will be those for a time frame much greater than the lifespans of any potential responders.
Follow that guideline and chant the warmists mantra: “You can’t prove it’s not true!!!!”

tty

Just how much farming is actually based on water from aquifers by the way? Almost all farming in the temperate zone and in monsoon areas is rain-based. Most irrigation agriculture is rain-based too, although the rain has often fallen far away.
About the only exceptions I can think of is oasis agriculture in desert areas and stock-keeping in the Great Artesian Basin of Australia and in some parts of the American West.

Lew Skannen

Wouldn’t it be nice if Monbiot checked out all the numbers he uses BEFORE he writes his alarmist rubbish?
How long would it take to google around the net to debunk the 100,000 litre claim, for example?

richard verney

Anthony
You have recently published a number of articles maskerading as research which demonstrates how these propagandists (for they are not scientists) are anti-human. The nub of the CO2 issue is that if we adopt the proposed cure (to halt nearly all CO2 emissions within the next 30 to 40 years), this will result in hundresds of thousands if not millions of deaths and will condemn most of the developing world to live in abject povery without electrity for at least many generations to come. What could be more anti-human than that?

Jeremy

“…so many centuries after the Creation it is unlikely that anyone could find hitherto unknown lands of any value.”
Committee advising King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella of Spain regarding a proposal by Christopher Columbus, 1486.
“Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
Dr Dionysius Lardner (1793-1859), professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College London
“What, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsense.”
Napoleon Bonaparte, when told of Robert Fulton’s steamboat, 1800s
“The phonograph has no commercial value at all.”
Thomas Edison, American inventor, 1880s
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, president of the British Royal Society, 1895
“Within as little as 10 years, the world will be faced with a choice: arable farming either continues to feed the world’s animals or it continues to feed the world’s people. It cannot do both.”
George Monbiot, 2002.

rokshox

Maybe he will be right because it will be too cold to grow crops.

Ian E

‘Jeff : just think of all the green credits I can capture by opening a cattle ranch and deciding NOT to raise any cattle …
I’ll be rich !!!’
Not the experience of some who tried to raise cattle in Australia and were not allowed to, due to government interference!

J.Cook

simply wow, who knew cows were a closed system that destroyed water? I guess the missing water is on vacation with the missing heat.

charles nelson

Monbiot is just a clever journo who jumped on the AGW bandwagon early and has been feted and well paid for many years now as he clocked up airmiles evangelizing.
Now that the wheels are coming off that bandwagon he’s clearly suffering the loss of authority and status that he craved (hopefully income too).
Just watching him squirm is good enough for me!

So, any chance we may get a apologia and retraction like he did over climategate? Not likely, but there is always hope.

tom roche

He probably meant there are 100,000 litres of water falling for every kg of beef produced,just a slip of the tongue.

Hugo M

Not exactly in defense of Monbiot, he was certainly right in considering phosphat to be a limited resource (as is earth’s surface, btw).

Sonya Porter

—water running out??? Tell that to the Australians!

DJ

I have steak credits for sale.
I promise not to eat a 12oz filet mignon in exchange for a $32 “Steak & Trade” coupon. The way it works is: You send me $32, and I send you a coupon which allows you to eat a 8-12oz filet mignon steak (the cost of the steak to you is additional). Should you choose an alternative cut of beef, the coupon value will be increased accordingly to a 10% maximum.
Proceeds from the Steak & Trade program will be used to fund the purchase of renewable foodstuffs, such as truffles or saffron. (We are also planning on sequestering CO2 bound in grape juice in 750ml bottles long term at a later date)
Although I have yet to formalize the system, I am accepting deposits for the coupons, and as soon as I have them printed they will be forwarded. Please note that they will be sold only in blocks of 10.

Jimbo

George Monbiot has a fast mouth and he is a self-confessed hypocrite.
“How many of us can claim to live as we urge others to live? Most environmentalists — myself included — are hypocrites.”
Heat, London, Allen Lane, 2006, p. 215 & 287.
George Monbiot on Green hypocrisy & his own hypocrisy
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2005/06/30/save-us-from-ourselves/
He also said something about flying by plane will soon be as unaceptable as child abuse after which he went on a Canadian book signing tour!!!!! (Did he fly, did he row, did he float on a hot air baloon?). Monbiot is a green hypocrite. He has attacked people with too many rooms in their home and he is divorced with 4 rooms. Humbuggery!!!

Anything is possible

George Monbiot has clearly never heard of the law of diminishing returns…….
The more outlandish his predictions, the less chance there is of them coming true.
End result : He winds up losing what little credibility he may have had in the first place.

Henry chance

The 100,000 liters of water per kilogram of beef is shocking. I saw a number of that size on PETA website once. They also published the millions of tons of cow poo that didn’t line up with actual farming inputs/outputs. When we put 400 pounds on cattle at pasture in 100 days in the Flint Hills, using their math, that means cows would be urinating at 70 gallons per minute less amount lost from evaporation. The amount of litres from rainfall is irrelevant because it rains on agriculture whether plants are harvested or not.

Magnus

Only one more year before we run out of water? Then why all the fuzz about peak oil? I’m buying evian shares.

dwright

I ate a kg of beef last week.
It was good.
’nuff said
d
PS I mass 75 kg, just have a high metabolic rate.
[d]

beesaman

Well it’s nice to know that, according to Paul Nurse (sorry I don’t do the Sir bits) head of the Royal Society thinks that only scientist can do science and the rest of us just have to sit back and believe everything they tell us. Sounds a bit like Roman Catholic dogma. I found his attitude patronising and arrogant, but hey I’m only and engineer and a university lecturer (got a science degree too).
As for his analogy to cures for cancer, well fifty years ago the cures for cancer killed my father in law, today’s cures would have saved him. So much for that analogy.
But then I’ve heard of white washes, I guess it wasn’t long before we had science washes too. But then I guess he didn’t get to that position by not scratching a few backs. I just hopes he’s still around when the data shows that it’s not CO2 but that ruddy great big yellow thing in the sky and complex sea currents that causes climate fluctuations. As for Monbiot, he’s just another communist/fascist/controlist using any excuse (in this case AGW) to try to control the rest of us. It’s never going to happen, but he’s too stupid to realise it.

Galvanize

Jeremy, why have put a trashy bloggist Moonbat quote alongside the likes of Kelvin and Edison? A little faux pas, for sure.

Jimbo

As for Monbiot’s prediction – FAIL as with James “Death Trains” Hansen. FAIL, FAIL AND FAIL AGAIN!!! Prepeare tar and feather.

There is no difference between this joker and anyone else that wishes to force the rest of the world to live the way they see as correct. Osama Bin Laden wants everyone to be a faithful Muslim, this idiot wants us all to eat lettuce. In the end they each want to force everyone else to their worldview. The 10:10 people do the same thing.
There is something inherently wrong with those that demand everyone live by their views of what is right. I am rather sick of other people trying to decide what is best for me.
John Kehr
The Inconvenient Skeptic

Jimbo

It is the anti-immigrant and anti-human agenda of the people who warn of “scarce resources” and “too many people” that is the real danger, not the idle bravado and loose chatter of a bunch of guys on an internet chat-room.

Immigration made America.
Population growth allows the young to care for the old.
Everything else is pure selfishness.
Look in the mirror and look at where YOU came from.

Steven Kopits

The problem of rising food prices is driven by the rising incomes of the Chinese, primarily. As they grow wealthier, they eat more meat, which requires even more grain. Thus, high food prices are the result of the Chinese both eating more and eating more food that requires a higher agricultural input.
Rising food prices will make Americans eat perhaps a bit less, or a bit less well. For the global poor, say Haitains or peoples of sub-Saharan Africa, it can be quite a problem. Increasing food prices will–indeed, are–putting them into an existential bind. They may simply eat less, when they do not yet even eat enough.

MarkD

beesaman says:
January 24, 2011 at 2:15 pm
Well it’s nice to know that, according to Paul Nurse (sorry I don’t do the Sir bits) head of the Royal Society thinks that only scientist can do science and the rest of us just have to sit back and believe everything they tell us.
Hi,
I just watched it to, equating climate ‘deniers’ with people who don’t believe AIDS, silly. Everything he was accusing the sceptics of doing he managed to do himself during that program.
I do think he came good at the end though, his call for the science and data to be open can only be a good thing.
MarkD

stephan

Beware the agw are really hammering the “warmest year 2010” to the max. The economist has had a lead article. They will not give up and will twist the data to make sure. Unfortunately 2011 looks like being a cool year.

hell_is_like_newark

The animal feed claim rubs me the wrong way. Cattle for instant are put on feed lots and fed corn to make them taste good. Most of their lives, they are eating grasses, corn stalks, cotton seed, and lots of other plant fibers that people cannot eat. Grazing animals turn non-eatable plants into protein. They are basically a big protein battery.

Jeroen B.

I for one welcome our evil Church of Veganoclimatology Overlords. /sarc.

John Cooper

In my younger days, the wife and I used to raise beef for our own consumption. I don’t recall using “100,000 litres of water to make 1 kilogram of beef” at all. Mostly, they ate grass. Sure, we had a water trough out in the pasture, but I think I would have noticed if it took 8 million gallons of water to raise one steer.

Green Sand

I wonder how well Monbiot’s vegetable beds are doing in Wales.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2008/apr/05/growingyourown.vegetables
Lasy year’s growing season April through October in the UK was 0.6C cooler (CET) than 2009 and 1.6C below 2006.
I grow vegetables, it makes a difference.

Dodgy Geezer

@Magnus
“…I’m buying evian shares…”
Spell ‘Evian’ backwards, and then tell me how many bottles of mineral water you buy at £2 a time…

J. Bob

#55 Allen @ RC 2010 Model-Data Comparisions Comment Section
I was trying to post this at RC, in support of Allen, who made the heretical statement that in the last dacde, global temperatures have slowed down. Needless to say, this post never passed the “censors”, but has some relevance here. So here is the “attempted” RC post.
Allen
As per your comments on the flattened temperature slope over the past decade or so, here are a couple of graphs which might help. They show the HadCRUT3gl global temperature with two different MOV “spans” of 10 & 30 yrs. Two additional comparative filters use a 0.1 & 0.03 cyc/yr “cut-off” respectively. The two filters were a 2-pole Butterworth ( zero ripple Chebushev) “filtfilt” and a Fourier convolution.
http://www.imagenerd.com/uploads/filter_comp_10_30yr-QBs7t.jpg
The top graph uses 10 yr (0.1 cyc/yr) filters to include higher freq., while the 30 yr (0.03 cyc/yr) provides longer period information. From the 10 yr. plot, one can see the ‘flattening” you mentioned. It also seems to extend farther in time then previous “toppings”. The second point, the top graph show a similarity of the ~1870 – ~1940 to the ~1940 – 2010 period. One could do a correlation to get a qualitative value, but they sure look very similar. Considering the accuracy of the measurements, the peak to peak change of the ~60 cycle wave also quite close.
The bottom graph shows the primary ~60 yr. cycle, and it shows the decreasing slope over the past ~15 years, indicating a possible topping. The question then is, if the CO2 is driving the warming, the slope should be increasing, but it’s not.
My thought is that there is a longer period wave in here, that’s causing the upward trend. Unfortunately with the limited data it’s hard to prove one way or another.

Rod Gill

As tty suggested, beef raised in our area (North New Zealand) is mostly from rain. In addition we live in a hilly area where the top soil is thin and not very rich. It is only suited for growing grass or trees. Any attempt to grow grains etc would see poor yields and what top soil is left quickly wash away into the sea. We have plenty of Pine tree plantations so growing beef or dairy is the best use for it.

Alan Clark of Dirty Oil-berta

I didn’t occur to Moonbat that cattle, like the rest of us don’t “consume” water. We merely use it to wet our insides and then put it back where it came from. Cows actually recycle 100% of the water they consume (99% anyway. The last bit ends up as steam inside my barbeque).

Taphonomic

Monbiot’s predictions are just a re-hashing of the same pablum that Paul Ehrlich has been pushing since the 1960s with the same incorrect results.
Doomsayers never seemed to get called to task for incorrect predictions (except when Ehrlich paid off Julian Simon for the wager that Ehrlich lost).

stumpy

“Every kilogram of beef we consume, according to research by the agronomists David Pimental and Robert Goodland, requires around 100,000 litres of water”
Anyone who regurgitates such rubbish should immediately be dismissed for showing such a poor understanding of the world around them. Has he not heard of the hydroglical cycle, or conservation of mass / energy or realise you cannot remove water from the earth unless your firing it into space!
If a cow consumed 100,000 litres of water and didnt return it to the environment it would weigh 100,000kg and have a mass of 100m3!!! Those numbers dont sound right me, of yes thats right, cows urinate and release moisture through their skin and breath, the remaining water retained in their blood is consumed by humans and then released in the same manner.
Yes a 100,000 litres of water may pass through a cow in its life time, but most is released back to the environment, if a cow weights 1000kg than it probably contains about 700 litres of water, all of which will be released back to the environment following its consumption (0r if it dies and rots). This is shamless tactics to scare the foolish into following some green agenda to avoid beef, science doesnt come into it!
Even if you irrigate for dairy herds, the water infiltrates to groundwater or evaporates, it isnt lost, it comes back again! You can only move water, you cant get rid of it!!!!!
Please please please stop talking about how much water ‘x’ uses to raise!!!

George E. Smith

“”””” tty says:
January 24, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Just how much farming is actually based on water from aquifers by the way? Almost all farming in the temperate zone and in monsoon areas is rain-based. Most irrigation agriculture is rain-based too, although the rain has often fallen far away.
About the only exceptions I can think of is oasis agriculture in desert areas and stock-keeping in the Great Artesian Basin of Australia and in some parts of the American West. “””””
Well California, would be one of the major farming States; I believe we produce more milk and cheese, than any of the cheesehead states of the mid west; Wisconsin for example. And we also hava a whole bunch of beef cattle raising in feedlots. The central valley of Califonia is almost one giant aquifer. The whole of the Sierra sends water dwon its slopes to sink into the central valley soils; so pumping from wells is very common. Of course the farmers would rather not pay the elctric bill or diesel bill so they will gladly take all the surface water they can grab at peanuts prices, rather than tap into their wells.
But Moonbat is not the only water nutcake. On Sunday, I watched a “Celebrity” skiing tournament, from some place called “Deer Valley” (never heard of it), and this whole show broadcast on CBS as I recall, was for the (financial) benefit of some outfit called “Water Caretakers” or “Water Keepers” or words to that effect, which is a wholly owned creation of Robert F Kennedy Junior; and featured him and his busibody sister skiing on the bunny slopes at this Deer valley place, in what was pourported to be a slalom race. To provide some actual skiing, they had some has been retired US skiiers; one each on each of the frour “Teams” As I recall, the Mahre brothers, and Tommy Moe, as well as a former lady Olympic skiier.
The biggest advertiser on this “green” program was Ford Motor Company; a company that Kennedy would legilate out of business, if he had th4e power to. Talk about a self agrandizing scam. I almost called the CBS affiliate to complain about their not in the public interest programming.
If these rich toffs, want to provide water to parched regions of the world; then why are they wasting time and money skiing on the stuff at some playboy resort.

Crispin in Waterloo

One says: “misanthrope”
Another says: “propagandists”
Another says: “politicians” (usually lefties)
Another says: “climate scientist”
I am not sure which, if any applies best to Monbiot. He is certainly a clever fellow, I will give him that. It menas he knows what he is doing and what the implications of saying it are. For example several docu-dramas on how the Himalayan glaciers are all going to be gone soon and when that happens the Mekong River (etc) will dry up and SE Asia will become a desert. Other than being bad at calendar math I presume he thinks it doesn’t rain in SE Asia.
What to do? Stop buying the Guardian I guess. I see the BBC gives the Guardian 100 UKP per actual purchasing customer per year. That’s amazing. Are they into this together?

Northern Exposure

I wonder if Monbiot practices what he preaches and lives on nothing but homegrwon organic carrots and lettuce…

DocMartyn

just enough numbers of me, too many of you.

Douglas DC

I wish klowns like Moonbat would have the courage to spend a year on a working cattle
ranch….

Magnus

Lol, dodgy. SELLING… Not buying, although if moonbat is a true oracle it won’t be overpriced at 2 pounds.

ked5

If those who go about proclaiming humans are going to bring about the end of the world would just remove themselves (they claim to be human too) from the world – the rest of us might actually believe they were sincere in their concern for the planet instead of possessing ulterior motives.

Al Gore's Holy Hologram

Monbiot was co-founder, with closet Islamo-fascist and Saddam ally George Galloway, of Britain’s Respect Party which is the official alliance of socialists and Islamists in the UK. That’s all you need to know about Monbiot’s belief in austerity and going green.

John M

Actually, there may well be a food “crisis” proclaimed by the media within the next year.
The cause will be more the diversion of land from food to biofuels, but why sweat the details.

Fred from Canuckistan

“Monbiot is not a racist. He is not even a neo-Malthusian.”
But he is getting rich off pushing fear and hysteria about Climate Change.
Who needs a reputation as a good journalist when you are rich.
He’s called The Moonbat for a reason.

Todd

But think of the Moral Superiority we will have!! 😉