
Guest post by Dr. Ryan N. Maue (using my AB History from Michigan)
The catastrophe modeling of the USGS extrapolates current damage$ based upon the scenario of the California floods of 1861-1862. Quoting directly from the Southern California quarterly Volume 1 (1884) [Google Books is awesome]: “During the months of December, 1861, and January, 1862, according to a record kept at San Francisco, 35 inches of rain fell, and the fall for the season footed up nearly 50 inches.”
“It began raining on December 24,1861, and continued for thirty days, with but two slight interruptions. The Star published the following local: ” A Phenomenon—On Tuesday last the sun made its appearance. The phenomenon lasted several minutes and was witnessed by a great number of persons.” For nearly three weeks there was no mail; some wag labeled the postoffice, ” To Let.”
“After the deluge, what ? The drought. It began in the fall of 1862, and lasted to the winter of 1864-65. The rainfall for the season of 1862-63 did not exceed four inches, and that of 1863-64 was even less. In the fall of 1863 a few showers fell, but not enough to start the grass. No more fell until March. The cattle were dying of starvation. Herds of gaunt, skeleton-like forms, moved slowly over the plains in search of food.”
“If there is one characteristic of his State, of which the true Californian is prouder than another, it is its climate. With his tables of mean temperature and records of cloudless days and gentle sunshine, he is prepared to prove that California has the most glorious climate in the world. Should the rains descend and the floods prevail, or should the heavens become as brass, and neither the former nor the latter rains fall, these climatic extremes, he excuses on the plea of exceptional years.” (Guinn 1889)
Still quoting (actually just copying b/c the prose cannot be topped)
Here and there, singly or in small groups, poor brutes, too weak to move on, stood motionless with drooping heads slowly dying of starvation. It was a pitiful sight In the long stretch of arid plain between San Gabriel and the Santa Ana there was one oasis of luxuriant green. It was the vineyards of the Anaheim colonists kept green by irrigation. The colony lands were surrounded by a close willow-hedge, and the streets closed by gates. The starving cattle, frenzied by the Bight of something green, would gather around the inclosure and make desperate attempts to break through. A mounted guard patrolled the outside of the barricade day and night to protect the vineyards from incursion by the starving herds.
The loss of cattle was fearful. The plains were strewn with their carcasses. In marshy places and around the cienegas, where there was a vestige of green, the ground was covered with their skeletons, and the traveler for years afterward was often startled by coming suddenly on a veritable Golgotha—a place of skulls—the long horns standing out in defiant attitude, as if protecting the fieshless bones. It is said that 30,000 head of cattle died on the Stearns Ranchos alone. The great drought of 1863-64 put an end to cattle raising as the distinctive industry of Southern California.
…and more on the records of California floods…
In looking over the record of floods we find, as a rather remarkable coincidence, that for a period of fifty years, a flood has occurred every tenth year. Beginning with the season of 1811 and 1812 we find floods occurred in 1822-32—42-52 and 62. To establish a theory of decadal floods there should have been one in 1872 and in 1882, but both these were dry years—floods occurring in 1873-74 and 1883-84. Possibly the great flood of 1868 so confused Jupiter Pluvius that he lost his reckoning.
Let’s go back to 1852:
In January, 1850, the ” Argonauts of ’49 ” had their first experience of a California flood. The valley of the Sacramento was like an inland sea, and the city of Sacramento became a second Venice. But, instead of gondolas, the honest miners navigated the submerged streets in wagon-boxes, bakers’ troughs, crockery crates, and on rafts made of whisky-kegs. Whisky in hogsheads, whisky in barrels and whisky in kegs floated on the angry waters, and the gay gondolier, as he paddled through the streets, drew inspiration for his song from the bung-hole of his gondola.
A HISTORY OF CALIFORNIA FLOODS AND DROUGHT.
BY J. M. GUINN.
• [Read March 4, 1889.]
If there is one characteristic of his State, of which the true Californian is prouder than another, it is its climate. With his tables of mean temperature and records of cloudless days and gentle sunshine, he is prepared to prove that California has the most glorious climate in the world. Should the rains descend and the floods prevail, or should the heavens become as brass, and neither the former nor the latter rains fall, these climatic extremes, he excuses on the plea of exceptional years. It is with the record that these exceptional years have made that I propose to deal in this paper. Equable conditions, whether climatic or social, have nothing of the tragic in them, and history delights in the tragic. While Central and Southern California have been about equally affected by floods and droughts, my record of their effects applies principally to Southern California.
For the first fifty years after the settlement of California the weather reports are very meagre. The padres had no Signal Service Bureau and compiled no meteorological tables of atmospheric phenomena, although the state of the weather was undoubtedly a topic of deep interest to the pastoral people of California. To the dons and the padres, with their cattle on a thousand hills, and their flocks and herds spread over the plains, an abundant rainfall meant prosperity ; a dry season death to their flocks and consequent poverty. We can imagine with what anxiety they scanned the heavens for rain signs as the waning months of the rainy season passed away, leaving but a scanty supply of moisture. The weather prophet, with his portents and omens, was without honor at such times. A flood might be a temporary evil, but like the overflow of the Nile, a year of plenty always followed; whilst the dreaded dry year was an evil unmixed with good.
The earliest record of a flood that I have been able to find is a brief mention of one that occurred in 1811. In 1815 occurred a great flood that materially changed the course of the Los Angeles River within the city limits. The river abandoned its former channel and flowed west of the suertes or planting fields of the first settler, its new channel followed very nearly the present line of Alameda Street. The old fields were washed away or covered with sand, and new fields were located in what is now the neighborhood of San Pedro Street.
This record of California floods, I confess, appears rather formidable and might even be considered damaging to the good name of our State, were it not that our floods, like everything else in our State, can not be measured by the standard of other countries. We are exceptional even in the matter of floods. While floods in other lands are wholly evil in their effects, ours, although causing temporary damage, are greatly beneficial to the country. They fill up the springs and mountain lakes and reservoirs that feed our creeks and rivers, and supply water for irrigation during the long dry season. A flood year is always followed by a fruitful year. The disastrous effects of drought disappeared with the decadence of the cattle and sheep industries. Increased facilities for irrigation, the development of water by tunneling into the hills, artesian wells, the building of reservoirs for water storage, and the more economic use of water, have done much to counteract the evil effects of the dreaded dry year.”
end quotation (Guinn 1889).
1878 A.D.
[snip . . . just post links not papers please as there are copyright issues and other nasties that WUWT don’t need to spend time and money dealing with]
Impact (www.breadandbutterscience.com) 2010
The NYT archive 1851 – 1980 has 5,255 Results for “California flood”. OK some may be people called ‘flood’ or whatever, but there’s still a ton in there. (free search)
http://query.nytimes.com/search/query?frow=0&n=10&srcht=s&daterange=period&query=California+flood&srchst=p&submit.x=24&submit.y=11&submit=sub&hdlquery=&bylquery=&mon1=09&day1=18&year1=1851&mon2=12&day2=31&year2=1980
In my comment above I mentioned speculators and promoters. That would include, of course, the present breed of emissions trading schemers.
Perspective, perspective.
Outstanding prose, they were so much better educated in those days – a sad reflection on standards today.
An article in the Daily Telegraph regarding oil exploration in the rapidly melting Arctic says everything about education and historical perspective.
Good post, as usual Ryan.
Jonathan Stuart-Brown says:
Put real pressure on The Academy of Motion Pictures in Hollywood to strip Al Gore of his Oscar prior to this year’s ceremony.
You’re more likely to get an accurate prediction from a CAGW model.
Feet2theFire says:
So, basically California is in a state of significant standard deviation.
Speaking as a former (native) Californian, I can assuredly state that there is nothing standard about California’s deviation.
More seriously:
Mr. Murray states, as I so often hear “Weather is not climate”. What, then, IS climate, if not weather over time?
There’s only two problems Cali has:
1. Climate Hippies, and
2. Drainage problems.
Well you need to take a close look at that photo of the “Congress Created Dust Bowl”. Look back fromt he road (hiway-5) about a quarter of a mile, and you see it is all green, and lots of stuff growing; and it is all the way from at least hiway 152 down to hiway 58. But right along hiway-5, not much is growing, and the eareas where those signs are seem to be ploughed anyway, even though the farmers don’t have any water to grow anything there; and that applies to both sides of the road; and so far as is known, it has never rained on the West side of Hiway-5; but the gree orchards now go right up into the foothills there.
Why would you waste money, and fuel, and farm workers ploughing an area you don’t have water to grow on; unless your aim was to create a dustbowl, and have the winds blow your topsoil over onto the neighboring lands.
But its a good excuse for farmers to pull out the crops that were no longer chic with the yuppie public; and replant at taxpayer expense with some varietal that is more in vogue. Lots of orchards pulled out of there in 2010. O course most of that land along the five is the big out of state conglomerates; who will take all the water they can get for a song. But I still do favor agriculture over growing Goof courses in the Southern California deserts; where Mother Gaia, wanted only Cactus and tumble weeds to grow. Well they want to condemn all those So-Cal deserts so the Silcon Valley Socialists can get the land for their taxpayer funded solar farms. A recent San Jose Mercury News Business article about a big Sunpower Systems- So-Cal Edison contract; said that Sunpower would provide steerable solar arrays, that follow the sun; which helps to save land area.
I’m reasonably sure that nobody in the know at Sunpower said anything like that; but the reporter scrambles something she heard. Fully steerable certainly saves solar cell area; but if anything, it increases the required land area; because you have to space those steerable arrays so they never shadow each other.
And Mother Gaia; does not want anybody ptting more than about 100 Watts per square foot on her land; and that is for the land normal to the sun-earth vector. You only get the solar energy that will fall on the surface; but you can use fewer cells, if you direct them at the sun.
Veronica says:
January 18, 2011 at 7:59 am
I’m not sure what the point of the article is. Is it saying that if the famous “Ark Storm” happens it could be followed by a dust bowl, as indicated by previous climate patterns?
It already has. The Indians hold the legends of great floods and droughts, much worse than anything we have witnessed.
They just happen, they happen in general and in random watersheds, and they impact weather downstream (to the East).
The tree ring data holds a hint of a massive water event in the middle of the 11th Century in parts of California.
When you compare the greatest tree-ring water events to tree-ring droughts, the water events are always one step above the drought events.
AGW did not exist in those times, and seems not to play any part in recent California Climate Binges.
“Did they REALLY waste tax payers money to convene a conference on how to get ready for a purely hypothetical doomsday scenario? REALLY?”
This event is about as hypothetical as a major earthquake in LA, and as a local resident, you can bet I’m glad the state is spending money on preparedness for that. You can’t call the scenario hypothetical when it is a recreation of events that occurred 150 years ago. And since these “AR” events occur on so massive a scale about every 200 years (per the report), they have about the same frequency and are as real a danger to CA as earthquakes. And the amount of development without flood insurance in California’s floodplains is astounding. For example, much of the heavily developed interior flatlands of Orange County are on the flood plain of the Santa Ana River.
The two arguments that 1.this is a hypothetical scenario and therefore a waste of money, and 2. CA floods have occurred in the past are mutually exclusive. Either floods have happened and the report rightfully raises awareness of the potential impacts to homeowners, etc., or floods have never happened, in which case you must have not read anything said either in the report or in Ryan’s post. So unlike your scenarios, this one is based on events that have 1. occurred in recorded history, and 2. happen at regular, comparatively short intervals.
Ken Clark describes the report as a “prediction,” which is only true in the most general sense. As I said before, these events occur about every 200 years, so it is very likely that another such storm will impact the state. The scientists describe themselves as building a “scenario” based on the 1862 events. The word “prediction” is thrown in largely by the media, whom I will not defend. The only reason for any sort of urgency in the press release is that this scenario, as likely as the “big one” and potentially much more costly, has been largely forgotten by the public. It seems that Ken, who was apparently such an “expert,” needs to read up on California’s historical meteorology.
Ryan Maue says: January 17, 2011 at 2:16 pm
What better way to attract conservatives to your cap-and-trade plan or carbon taxation schemes than throwing in a little of the Bible?
You suffer from the same problem as many libtards who make the incorrect assumption that every conservative is a bible-thumping fundamentalist Christian. You could not be more wrong.
Bjorn Lomborg has a point whether we agree with his general agreement with global warming theory. Basically, the billions or trillions used to reduce the global temperature by one degree would be better spent on other things. Here, we have a disaster that is likely to happen at some future date (whether its next year or in the next hundred or so years) and we are spending billions on what might not be a problem and nothing on what is likely to become a problem.
Someone has done an interesting comparison of with and without floods in Queensland
http://www.abc.net.au/news/infographics/qld-floods/beforeafter.htm
moving your mouse left to right reveals the differences. Yes I know its nothing to do with AGW but its a nice web site 😉
“”””” woodNfish says:
January 19, 2011 at 9:44 am
Ryan Maue says: January 17, 2011 at 2:16 pm
What better way to attract conservatives to your cap-and-trade plan or carbon taxation schemes than throwing in a little of the Bible?
You suffer from the same problem as many libtards who make the incorrect assumption that every conservative is a bible-thumping fundamentalist Christian. You could not be more wrong. “””””
How true Woody; and many who are not of that stripe, are also not so ignorant of that most published of all books, as to be unable to cite a few words of wisdom from it.
I’m off on a peninsula all by myself; since I consider religion to be the single greatest scourge to ever inflict the human race; but I can point to a time whan I could recite almost half of the entire New Testament from memory. One would have to be truly ignorant, to not be aware of the great influence the world’s religions have had on its peoples, and their standards of what is considered to be ethical or moral behavior. Among the worst, are those who are perfect a-holes all week long; knowing they can go in and confess their sins, on Sunday, and then start all over again next week.
“”””” Bill Murray says:
January 18, 2011 at 9:27 pm
“Did they REALLY waste tax payers money to convene a conference on how to get ready for a purely hypothetical doomsday scenario? REALLY?” “””””
At least 3.5 million people now live in the area that was totally devastated, and bereft of ALL life in 79 AD by the eruption of Mt Vesuvius. Today’s scientists say that “Plinian” (the younger) eruptions of that scale only occur about every 2000 years. I don’t know if that means in the same place; or just somewhere on earth.
If it is the same place; then my home town of Auckland is in deep doodoo, because that city is built on and around at least 60 volcanoes; the most recent of which (Rangitoto) I believe last erupted only about 600 years ago (don’t quote me on that). Well a good many of those volcanoes have been dug up and broken into little pieces to spread around on the roads; so maybe just digging them out is the solution.