I remember vividly being on the air at KHSL-TV reporting on this hurricane. I showed the actual path and projected path…
…and told people this during my live weather broadcast on Saturday night:
This storm will severely impact the critical oil drilling and refining area in the Gulf of Mexico. Better fill up your gas tank while you can, because gasoline prices will surely go up quickly.
I was derided by some callers to the TV station and editorial letter writers for that remark, saying that I was being “irresponsible”. A couple of days later, the inevitable happened, gas prices went up sharply.
Now, thanks to the Gore movie, An Inconvenient Truth, Katrina is still being used as the poster child for “global warming” even though the actual data does not support that conclusion. For example last September WUWT carried this article:
Global Warming = more hurricanes | Still not happening
So far the hurricane season for the Atlantic has been pretty quiet for 2009. Ryan Maue from Florida State University explains why. In related news, Al Gore has dropped the [hurricane frequency] related slide in his traveling PowerPoint show. – Anthony
Great Depression! Tropical Cyclone Energy at 30-year lows
Global hurricane frequency versus global ocean temperatures – Top image from FSU ACE, bottom image from GISS ocean data plotted by WUWT – click for larger image===============================================
And it’s still not happening this year so far:
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity still at 30 year low
From: Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months …
Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/lime green boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
==============================
Even the World Meteorological Organization agrees that Gore’s Katrina connections are rubbish:
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a stunning statement in a recent report. Roger Pielke Jr. has the details on his blog. Just to remind folks that we’ve been saying much the same thing for months on WUWT…
==============================
Of course, the statistical sophistry of Michael Mann says otherwise:
Michael Mann: “This tells us these reconstructions are very likely meaningful,”
And, if this paper were a movie pushing non-existent hurricane to global warming connections like AIT, we might hear dialog like this in the vein of Apocalypse Now :
I love the smell of bullshit in the morning.
========================================================
Perhaps though the best way to remember this day is to have a look at the folly of failed environmental and flood management policy, and the photos that document the event.
From Boston.com and the “Big Picture” slideshow; praying is as futile as statistical sophistry.
Blae Bryce, 40, of Memphis, Tennessee, prays the Lotus Sutra on an Interstate 10 overpass as floodwaters rise in New Orleans on Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2005. (AP Photo/The Palm Beach Post, Gary Coronado)
See the complete photo essay here at the “Big Picture” slideshow
People do need to remember that most of the flooding damage in New Orleans had nothing to do with the storm effects of Katrina. The flooding came due to breaches in the levees to Lake Pontchartrain that had not been properly reinforced over the last thirty years, even though the U. S. Congress had allocated the money to do the reinforcement to the State of Louisiana and the Army Corps of Engineers three times during that period. The local government had elected to use the money and the Army’s services on other commercial related projects.
Well done for your consistency and doggedness in holding warmist feet to the fire!
Ed said: Well done for your consistency and doggedness in holding warmist feet to the fire!
I love the smell of burning warmist feet in the morning. ;->
You live in a bowl, you swim in a bowl.
The alphabet says it all. Every year when the Katrina stories come around I think, if hurricanes are increasing we should be past K by now, and we never are. This year we’re only at D and E.
Keith W., I’m not sure where you’re getting your information. While there may be some room to argue that the incompetence of local levee boards contributed to the catastrophe in New Orleans, the bulk of the responsibility has been shown to be with the Corps and its contractors. The levees which failed had not been built to spec, and inspection and maintenance had been woeful. Those levees were primarly on the outflow canals through which rainwater is pumped out of the city into the lake. They were not the levees that directly protect the city from Lake Ponchatrain’s water. Moreover, the Corp’s constuction of the MR GO, and its failure to properly maintain that fools errand of a waterway, greatly enhanced Katrina’s surge into the city, and especially St. Bernard Parish. And, to say that Katrina had nothing to do with the flooding, although a meme here in New Orleans, is of course untrue on its face. Even though the so-called experts insist Katrina was a Cat 2 at New Orleans, I find that hard to believe to this day. In Slidell and on the Mississippi Gulf Coast Katrina did far more damage then 1969’s Hurricane Camille, a documented Cat 5 at its landfall. My wife’s house in Pass Christian, which survived Camille, was but a slab after Katrina. The wind damage in New Orleans from Katrina rivaled that from Cat 3 Betsy in 1965, a storm which made a more or less direct hit on The Crescent City. Experts notwithstanding, Katrina was a vicious storm here in the Big Easy, and one which brought powerful forces to bear on the city’s flood protection system. I tend to believe that even if the Corps had done its job properly, some flooding would have occurred in the city, albeit nothing like what actually happened.
Someone will jump on the current series of close storms in the Atlantic (Danielle, Earl, and ???) as “proof” and claim we dodged a bullet if none of them hit the US. If not now, they will be included in the year-end summary of “extreme weather” worldwide in 2010 thanks to the year being warmest/second warmest/whatever.
Physics deniers. Living below sea level is risky.
I still remember my surprise at the president telling them to evacuate.
Katrina five years later. Was it:
A proof of global warming? Don’t be silly; of course not.
A demonstration of the power of a hurricane? Close but no cigar.
An illustration of the impact of state & local government corruption? We have a winner!
And what happened? The sheep herded themselves to the Super Dome, waiting for their masters to take care of them as they always kept promising through many years. Or, as Dorothy Parker once said, “The power to do things for you is the power to do things to you.” And boy oh boy, did the people of New Orleans ever have something done to them five years ago!
And, as for lessons learned? None, as the memory fades and the stupid politicians keep trying to rebuild the city that’s too big for its environment.
After everyone who is alive today is long dead and buried and the city gets hit again it will once again be an unprecedented disaster.
In related news, Al Gore has dropped the [hurricane frequency] related slide in his traveling PowerPoint show. – Anthony
Gore is merely updating his portfolio of Fear, discarding broken weapons.
He’s still at it with his mantra of clearcutting civilization and personal freedom as the only solution.
I remember prior to Iniki one radio broadcaster who was new to Hawaii bemoaning the lines at service stations and at dump sites that were being regularly reported. He “rhetorically” asked how people could be so selfish and foolish prior to a hurricane. His cohost calmly told him that the public were carefully following the instructions given on page 44 of the telephone directory. lol. Stock up on fuel, water. food, batteries and canvas. And dispose of all garbage and unsecurable items about the yard.
The Katrina disaster was anthropogenic, all right, but had nothing to do with CO2.
First, the government encouraged hundreds of thousands of people to live below sea level behind a level 3 levee.
And second, since the 1920s the US Army Corps of Engineers has been diverting the Mississippi silt out to sea rather than allowing it to form a natural delta to the east and west of NO.
The country needs a deep water port with a big labor force at the mouth of the Missippippi, but it doesn’t have to be at the historic NO. The logical thing to do in 2005 would have been to designate a new main channel for the Mississippi to the E or W of the old channel, and then to build a port of Newer Orleans on it, above sea level. A downsized historic NO would then be retained as a cultural and educational center.
But no, the government continues to encourage hundreds of thousands to live below sea level behind dubious levees, and to channel the Mississippi mud far out to sea.
Deja vu all over again…
Phil Nizialek writes:
“The wind damage in New Orleans from Katrina rivaled that from Cat 3 Betsy in 1965, a storm which made a more or less direct hit on The Crescent City.”
Put this in context. Point 1: The Crescent City is what Americans think of as New Orleans. The place that tourists love did not disappear. Point 2: The Crescent City is on a ridge and was not affected by flooding; in fact, some would say it suffered very little. Point 3: Do not compare Camille to anything if you were not there. I was.
Tyop: “So far the hurricane season for the Atlantic has been pretty quiet for 2009.”
It’s been pretty quiet so far in 2010, too. Though I note that the longterm average (including cold AMO) says that on average, the first Cat-3 storm is on September 4, and the third hurricane is on September 9. So we’ve caught up to the long term average, if not the warm AMO (e.g. since 1995) average.
REPLY: That post was written in 2009, follow the link – A
Phil Nizialek says:
August 29, 2010 at 2:28 pm
I tend to believe that even if the Corps had done its job properly, some flooding would have occurred in the city, albeit nothing like what actually happened.
============================================================
The only mistake the Corps made was building the levees in the first place. Their construction led to the false sense of security that modern engineering techniques could protect land that is below sea level from damage during a common, natural occurrence.
Everyone in New Orleans who chose to live below sea level bears the majority of the responsibility for the damage to their homes. Hurricanes are real, they happen, and a category 5 will come someday.
Anyone living in the sections of New Orleans that abut the ocean or are below sea level are simply rolling the dice and betting the normal forces of nature will not effect them during their lives.
Theo Goodwin says:
August 29, 2010 at 3:00 pm
Phil Nizialek writes:
> Point 3: Do not compare Camille to anything if you were not there. I was.
I wasn’t there, but I think it’s safe to say Camille was a very compact storm, so while it may not have had as widespread an impact as many storms, people who got the brunt of the storm had a rather wild ride. (In some cases, literally. Oh good grief – there’s a Camille mattress in the UK – http://www.imattresses.co.uk/camille-pocket-memory-1400-mattress.html ) Sigh.
(Note – the stories about people floating out on mattresses are not as well corroborated as would be nice.)
Well, here we go again with trying, but I am sure failing, to correct the misconceptions of those who want to prove that New Orleanians are somehow fools who don’t know any better than to get out of the drain. First, let’s deal with Mr. Brozyna’s multiple calumnies. Note my earlier post. Read the investigations of what happened. While local and state governments reacted badly to the storm, the flooding resulted in large part from failures of the Corps of Enginners. The citizens of New Orleans had valid reasons to believe the levees would not fail during Katrina.
As for your off the chart offensive “sheep” comment, over 98% of the metro area’s population evacuated as Katrina approached, despite the short notice and hellish conditions on the roads out of town. The vast majority of those who stayed and fled to the Superdome or Convention Center for shelter did so because they had neither cars nor other transportation to evacuate. I’m not sure what you expected of those several thousand souls Mr. Brozyna. Would you have been happier if they stayed in their flooded houses and drowned? I’m also not sure where you live, but if it’s a big city, I wonder if all your citizens could evacuate with less than 48 hours notice before all hell broke loose, and what you would expect them to do if they couldn’t. No offense to the the TPC, but that’s about the warning NOLA got that Katrina was going to threaten the city.
And yes SSam and all you who constantly remind us that parts of the city are below sea level. We know that and choose to live in this great city nonetheless. And most of us rebuilt with our insurance money and bare hands, and will always do so because this city’s soul is like no other in America.
And before you all start bleating about how you don’t want federal dollars dedicated to our “foolishness”, think about what you are going to tell the people of LA or San Francisco or Memphis when those cities are destroyed by earthquakes? Or the good folks of Seattle after their fine town is buried in volcanic ash? Or the people of the plains when the rivers flood their homes? There’s virtually no place in the US that’s immune from natural disaster, and believe me you insensitive gollums, when it happens to your town the people of New Orleans will be there to help you without question as to why you lived in a place where such a disaster could occur.
The effects of Katrina on New Orleans could arguably have been predictable and certainly should have come as no surprise to public officials. 40 years before what was then the nations 1st billion dollar hurricane caused eerily similar effects on New Orleans and the response had similarities: The 9th ward flooded after the flood wall failed and people drowned in their attics, charges were made that the levees were purposely destroyed and the president had to be convinced with political reasoning to visit the devastated city. In 1998, there was a fiasco at the Superdome similar to that that happened in 2005. It is remarkable that no one even seemed to suspect that what happened before could happen again. Of course, the media remains ignorant to this day. It was not global warming…it happened before and some day will probably happen again. See link http://wp.me/pduTk-2UO
New Orleans is a lost cause. Deal with it. For the bad news read… http://pesn.com/2005/09/23/9600175_Rebuild_Energy_Systems_Not_NewOrleans/
New Orleans is subsiding 1 to 2 feet a year *IN ADDITION TO ANY ALLEGED SEA LEVEL RISE*. And it’s also sliding horizontally towards the edge of the continental shelf. Ask any rational engineer if levees/dams can be built to withstand those conditions. Even if it could be done, New Orleans will become a very tempting and vulnerable terrorist target. One or two properly-placed explosive charges will start a major leak into the bowl, which will erode a wider channel, which will eventually flood the place. Every wannabe Bin Leyden or McVeigh will be trying to go down in history for flooding the place. Only one has to succeed, and it’s game over.
It was predicted, and was widely known in the emergency management community for decades. I recall New Orleans being discussed in emergency management conferences in the late 1980’s as an example of a city that was living on borrowed time.
It was not a question of “if a Katrina like disaster would happen in New Orleans” but a quest of “when a Katrina like disaster would happen in New Orleans.
The topography of the coast and the city made this disaster (ie major hurricane related flooding) inevitable. The only question was what the specific failure would be that would cause the flooding (storm surge, levee failure, or pumping failure) and would the local authorities plan effectively for the obvious consequences of those likely modes of failure, and respond according to that plan in a timely manner so that the citizens could get out of the basin before the storm induced flooding overwhelmed the pumping capacity that keeps New Orleans dry in a storm.
Larry
One of the lasting effects of Katrina is the continued replenishment of the flood insurance fund. Since then my flood insurance has gone up about $100 per year, this year I just paid $1013. Now you may think that is what I get for living near the beach but in my case it isn’t so. I live about 1 mile inland at an elevation of 15 feet. That is correct, 15 feet above sea level in Florida. I am in a Cat 5 evac zone. My flood insurance requirement comes from the fact that there was once a small lake down the street from my home. That lake was filled in many years ago and made into a county park. But because we are still using the FIRM maps from 1993, my property shows up in the flood zone from that old lake. About 3 years ago the FIRM maps were being redone in this area to bring them up to date but that has been stalled. The County cannot give me any answers. Can anyone guess why? My suspicion is that the flood insurance fund still wants more money put into it and no properties will be deemed out of any current zone for as long as they can get away with it.
Hurricane Katrina was more about a failure of the Army Corps of Engineers than it was a fierce, massive (insert adjective) storm. No doubt Katrina was a major hurricane, but she was a CAT-3 when she hit NOLA. But there were other storms that were just as windy and dumped just as much rain on NOLA, but the pumps designed to remove the flood water from the city worked in those cases. Theoretically the levees surrounding the city were designed to withstand a CAT-3 hurricane.
The biggest problem that Katrina posed was she did not strike the city with a direct blow. The Army Corps had fortified the levees on the Gulf of Mexico side of the city excepting a direct hit, but they pretty much ignored the levees on the Lake Pontchartrain side. These levees had sunk about 1 metre since they were built in the 1960’s until 2005, since as we all know; NOLA is sinking about an centimetre every year.
Unfortunately, because of the track that Katrina took to the east of the city, the return flow from the storm in the northeast quadrant cause a high storm surge on Lake Ponchartrain, breaching the levees on the north side of the city, and finally causing them to fail. All the flood control in NOLA also failed simultaneously as it was overwhelmed by the flood waters.
You can watch a presentation titled “Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: Subsidence Measurements from Space” here:
http://www.cspg.org/events/webcasts/2007-webcasts.cfm
In addition, this disaster was predicted in a 2001 article in Scientific American. It’s amazing how humans have the capacity to ignore patently obvious disasters that are just waiting to happen.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=drowning-new-orleans-hurricane-prediction
New Orleans is still sinking, thanks again to the Army Corps who have channelled all the sediment from the Mississippi river out to the Gulf of Mexico instead of allowing the river to flood over the delta to replenish the delta with sand, silt and mud allowing it to stay above sea level. They do this to preserve the deepest sea port in the United States and to try to save the city of New Orleans. But New Orleans will have to be abandoned eventually because the sinking is accelerating – not decreasing.
Additionally, geological history tells us that the Mississippi River has built 7 lobes of the entire Mississippi Delta in the past 4600 years. Including the current location. This occurs when the Mississippi River breeches its levees upstream (avulsion). It is reasonable that the Mississippi River will switch lobes and New Orleans will have a creek flowing through it. I think the Army Corps is in a fight with the river to prevent it from switching again, in the area of Baton Rouge. The current delta location will be abandoned because when humans get into a fight with Mother Nature, she always wins!
Today, President Obama announced he was going to help NOLA rebuild . I’m not arguing politics since George W. Bush also made the same promise, but it is a huge mistake to pump billions of dollars into the sinking city which will have to be abandoned one day anyway. When I was in NOLA in April, I stopped to look at how much the downtown area is BELOW the level of the surface of the Mississippi River. Even the Tragically Hip know that, “New Orleans is Sinking”
Hurricane Katrina and the associated flooding should have caused Americans to start the conversation at least about where the city of New Orleans will be relocated once the Gulf of Mexico swallows the current location. It’s not a matter of if.
Phil Nizialek says:
August 29, 2010 at 3:34 pm
And before you all start bleating about how you don’t want federal dollars dedicated to our “foolishness”, think about what you are going to tell the people of LA or San Francisco or Memphis when those cities are destroyed by earthquakes? Or the good folks of Seattle after their fine town is buried in volcanic ash? Or the people of the plains when the rivers flood their homes? There’s virtually no place in the US that’s immune from natural disaster, and believe me you insensitive gollums, when it happens to your town the people of New Orleans will be there to help you without question as to why you lived in a place where such a disaster could occur.
==========================================================
New Orleans is unique in your comparison because it requires direct and continuous human intervention to prevent its disaster.
If the pumps fail, much of New Orleans is soaked.
No other land you mention has the requirement that humans must continuously preserve its unnatural existence.
And if you choose to reply, please consider that I live in Tornado Alley, and accept the risk. However, I do not expect the local government to maintain wind barriers. I do not expect the Canadians to prevent cold air from descending, I do not expect the Mexicans to prevent warm air from rising, and I do not expect the ski resorts in Colorado from preventing the mix of warm and cold air from cascading across the mountain’s eastern face and heading my way.
On the other hand, the people of New Orleans expect that technology and others will prevent disaster from overwhelming their city. There is a difference.
I’m done “bleating”.
Thanks to all of you who have provided me evidence of your consensus based on the settled science that we New Orleanians should abandon our heritage, architecture, music, cuisine, lifrstyles and over 300 years of history so as not to ever trouble you again. Help me out here, but haven’t I heard these settled science requires giving up our lifestyle arguments made by others on this blog? Oh, yeah, wait . . . . AGW supporters, that’s it.
Be sure when y’all finish getting rid of the all of us down on the bayou that you give the Dutch a call. And the people of Venice. And . . . . and . . . .
Phil Nizialek says:{August 29, 2010 at 6:45 pm}
I have no objection to you keeping whatever you want, just stop asking me to pay for your folly 5 years later. Pay for it yourself.