I remember vividly being on the air at KHSL-TV reporting on this hurricane. I showed the actual path and projected path…
…and told people this during my live weather broadcast on Saturday night:
This storm will severely impact the critical oil drilling and refining area in the Gulf of Mexico. Better fill up your gas tank while you can, because gasoline prices will surely go up quickly.
I was derided by some callers to the TV station and editorial letter writers for that remark, saying that I was being “irresponsible”. A couple of days later, the inevitable happened, gas prices went up sharply.
Now, thanks to the Gore movie, An Inconvenient Truth, Katrina is still being used as the poster child for “global warming” even though the actual data does not support that conclusion. For example last September WUWT carried this article:
Global Warming = more hurricanes | Still not happening
So far the hurricane season for the Atlantic has been pretty quiet for 2009. Ryan Maue from Florida State University explains why. In related news, Al Gore has dropped the [hurricane frequency] related slide in his traveling PowerPoint show. – Anthony
Great Depression! Tropical Cyclone Energy at 30-year lows
Global hurricane frequency versus global ocean temperatures – Top image from FSU ACE, bottom image from GISS ocean data plotted by WUWT – click for larger image===============================================
And it’s still not happening this year so far:
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity still at 30 year low
From: Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months …
Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/lime green boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
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Even the World Meteorological Organization agrees that Gore’s Katrina connections are rubbish:
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a stunning statement in a recent report. Roger Pielke Jr. has the details on his blog. Just to remind folks that we’ve been saying much the same thing for months on WUWT…
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Of course, the statistical sophistry of Michael Mann says otherwise:
Michael Mann: “This tells us these reconstructions are very likely meaningful,”
And, if this paper were a movie pushing non-existent hurricane to global warming connections like AIT, we might hear dialog like this in the vein of Apocalypse Now :
I love the smell of bullshit in the morning.
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Perhaps though the best way to remember this day is to have a look at the folly of failed environmental and flood management policy, and the photos that document the event.
From Boston.com and the “Big Picture” slideshow; praying is as futile as statistical sophistry.
Blae Bryce, 40, of Memphis, Tennessee, prays the Lotus Sutra on an Interstate 10 overpass as floodwaters rise in New Orleans on Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2005. (AP Photo/The Palm Beach Post, Gary Coronado)
See the complete photo essay here at the “Big Picture” slideshow
Phil Nizialek says:
August 29, 2010 at 6:45 pm
Thanks to all of you who have provided me evidence of your consensus based on the settled science that we New Orleanians should abandon our heritage, architecture, music, cuisine, lifrstyles and over 300 years of history so as not to ever trouble you again.
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You’re too emotionally involved to see the situation from a rational viewpoint.
Preserve your culture by moving it north to higher ground.
Sure, Tom. So long as none of my federal dollars are used to rebuild the Floriday Gulf Coast barrier island playgrounds after the next hurricane to follow Ivan’s path . Oh, or to rebuild Miami Beach when the next Andrew comes through.
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 6:08 pm
I’m done “bleating”.
==========================
Well that’s a relief.
Some people forget [including you] the geopolitical importance of New Orleans. You may not like it, but the Mississippi River is the inland waterway that empties the bread basket of the USA.
That is the reason that New Orleans is there.
And your comment: “No other land you mention has the requirement that humans must continuously preserve its unnatural existence.”
HA!!! You may want to look into the hydrology history of California, bud.
Or the history of the Colorado River.
You are correct. You are bleating.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Stanwilli says:
August 29, 2010 at 5:05 pm
Hurricane Katrina and the associated flooding should have caused Americans to start the conversation at least about where the city of New Orleans will be relocated once the Gulf of Mexico swallows the current location. It’s not a matter of if.
A big chunk of it relocated to Houston and San Antonio 5 years ago.
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 7:20 pm
Preserve your culture by moving it north to higher ground.
=================================
Its prejudice like this that has actually created the misinformation we have with our Corp of Engineers, thanks to NASA and NOAA…today.
Many of them have bought into the “sea level rise” fallacy, therefore they leave the coastal cities, in their minds, to fend for themselves.
New Orleans is built on alluvial soil, true.
But its geopolitical significance, is not to be underestimated.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Have you ever considered, Scott, that maybe the irrational ones are those that advocate the abandonment of a 300 year old city? Should we abandon all the hurricane prone coasts? There have been destructive, devasting hurricanes in New England, Long Island, the Carolinas, Florida, and all up and down the Texas Coast. All these places have been rebuilt, often with federal dollars. All will absolutely suffer catastrophic damge in the future from hurricanes, yet I don’t hear you calling on the people there to abandon their homes. And how about all those who develop the shifting sands of barrier islands, don’t buy insurance, and insist that their homes and businesses be rebuilt after storms. Let’s get rid of them while we’re at it. Are those who insist on living in river floodplanes irrational as well? To the extent they think about it, they buy federally subsidized flood insurance to protect them when their federally built levees are overtopped or fail. I have no doubt the Missouri will flood far more often than hurricanes will hit New orleans. Why don’t we stop helping them as well? Make ’em move to high ground, i say! The feds spent billions rebuilding the Bay area after the ’89 earthquake. No doubt that will happen again, to devastating effect. Why not abandon San Francisco? Move that culture to less shakey ground, as you say. What’s the difference?
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 7:18 pm
@ur momisugly Phil Nizialek
You’re too emotionally involved to see the situation from a rational viewpoint.
=====================================
You are using a logical fallacy to advance your viewpoint.
Complete red herring subject changer.
There is nothing wrong…whatsoever…for him to use a little passion and heat to defend his point….which is valid in the first place.
So your point is not taken.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Tom in Florida says:
August 29, 2010 at 7:12 pm
Phil Nizialek says:{August 29, 2010 at 6:45 pm}
I have no objection to you keeping whatever you want, just stop asking me to pay for your folly 5 years later. Pay for it yourself.
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Tom in Florida??
In Florida, Tom??
In Florida??
How many hurricane disasters have “we” paid for there??
Where is your American generosity??
What an ingrate!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Look the main thing is that we have to learn to live with nature….not against it.
That means paradigm shifts in our development, city planning, and coastal engineering policies.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean relocating cities.
Get over it, guys. That just AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN.
You just gotta have a good geoengineering plan.
Trust me…I know.
Where I live…I doubt very seriously you will be able to relocate the largest natural deepwater harbor in the world and also the planet’s biggest, baddest Navy base….now can you??
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I see a lot of people discussing how NO should be moved or shouldn’t…but I think the largest factor is the Mississippi in the end. We know from history that it shifts and when it does, do we keep NO where it is? Or do we move NO to where the Mississippi moves to? It is a relevant question, is NO culture based on its actual location or its location where the Mississippi meets the Gulf?
I don’t care who you are, but fighting against a river the size of the Mississippi is foolhardy… And someday that decision will have to be made. It might be 100 years from now, when the city is 350 years old (?)…. but it is a question that will someday need to be answered.
As for moving the city, I am not sure what the issue with this is at all…
To me, a city is the culture of the people and if you move the people, the city stays the same, its just rebuilt. But I digress..
The root of the problem here is not the cities, or their location.
The root of the problem is that for many, many years…the US government has been negligent on one of its mandates: INFRASTRUCTURE.
Rather, the Government would rather focus taxpayer-robbed [er um] “funded” projects on “ending the drug war” or advancing this political agenda or that…right or left.
How many billions…or even trillions…in that light….have been wasted??
Meanwhile….the power grid stays 50 – 100 years behind the times, and completely vulnerable to another disastrous and global 1859.
Meanwhile….interstate bridges fail, without a moment’s notice.
Meanwhile….a horrific flood ensues in New Orleans thanks to bad city planning and even worse, US government negligence.
Meanwhile….many BILLIONS have been spent on a trace gas in the atmosphere that is beneficial to plants and thus beneficial to us….when all of those many billions could have been spent on real scientific advancements.
Balls!!!
When Government fails to provide us basic infrastructure…at the expense of pork and political tripe…you’d better believe I get bloody angry.
And you should too.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Chris and Phil,
Thank you for your replies. Obviously this is an emotional topic. My point is simply that habitable coast lands come and go with the tide.
The historical importance of an area doesn’t matter.
We need to get over the belief that the world needs to remain the way it was when we first discovered it as children. The world changes, that’s a fact.
Ben D. says:
August 29, 2010 at 8:53 pm
To me, a city is the culture of the people and if you move the people, the city stays the same, its just rebuilt. But I digress..
===========================
Correct. You are digressing.
It is location, location, location, baby.
Sure, that is gonna migrate over the eons. But we are talking about now.
Again….if you take your argument….in reverse….then Los Angeles, just simply should not be there.
But it is because it can and they were able to divert HUGE stores of fresh water from the Sierra, and voila…. one of the largest cities on the planet.
And Las Vegas, another major metro area….simply should not be there. But you can thank Lake Mead.
New Orleans, however, is a very important geopolitical port in the US.
Sure it might migrate over the eons.
But for now….it ain’t going anywhere….nor should it.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Chris and Phil,
Thank you for your replies. Obviously this is an emotional topic. My point is simply that habitable coast lands come and go with the tide.
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No.
It is not an “emotional” topic. Rather, it generates “emotion” because there are some real issues of truth and falsehood to be examined here.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Chris and Phil,
The historical importance of an area doesn’t matter.
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Uhhhh…..I take it you do not spend too much time in cities like Rome, Paris, Boston and Washington DC?
And I take it you don’t care much for art, artifacts, culture, and museums?
Am I wrong?
Yeah…I think I am wrong.
Probably, history and historical importance of an area is important to you, too.
And I think you are probably sorry for uttering that ridiculous statement!!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 9:08 pm
Chris and Phil,
We need to get over the belief that the world needs to remain the way it was when we first discovered it as children. The world changes, that’s a fact.
===============================
Who here….[to use your words, not mine definitely!] “believes” that “the world needs to remain the way it was when we first discovered it as children.”????
Huh??? I certainly didn’t.
As a child, when I “discovered” the world, the shopping mall was in full swing.
I would be happier than a puppy with two peters [lol] if all shopping malls went away….that’s for dang sure!
And DUH double DUH….the world changes.
No one is saying it isn’t.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Chris and Phil,
Sorry to be rude, but I am about to go to sleep, and therefore won’t be up tonight to respond timely to your side of this debate.
I would ask you to consider how many of the sunken cities we’ve discovered need to be raised and returned to their former glory?
And then I would ask you what, other than time, differentiates those cities from our cities along coastal waters?
Tom in florida, lol..sorry to go off topic, just had to respond to your flood insurance thing. I live in Nevada at an elevation of 5200 feet, my mortgage requires I get flood insurance which costs me 1000 a year. Supposedly, the valley I live in is subject to a 500 year flood. I paid good dollar to get my house surveyed, and it is over 5 feet above the “500 year flood” elevation, yet I still could not get out of the requirement. Even if I did flood, my carpets might get a little wet, but there would be a niagra falls of water taking out the entire city of reno before it could physically get higher than that.
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Chris and Phil,
Sorry to be rude, but I am about to go to sleep, and therefore won’t be up tonight to respond timely to your side of this debate.
===================================
No big deal. Sleep tight. Your response or non response pretty much generates the same effect either way.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Scott Ramsdell says:
August 29, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Chris and Phil,
I would ask you to consider how many of the sunken cities we’ve discovered need to be raised and returned to their former glory?
And then I would ask you what, other than time, differentiates those cities from our cities along coastal waters?
===============================
Are you talking about “Atlantis”???
Oh. OK. Gotcha.
Keep that up, bro.
You obviously have NO recon or intel about the geopolitical significance of coastal cities.
I would be interested to know….where you live!
Maybe that would explain the source of your bias??
Or is it just your ego??
That unique and fatal flaw in homo sapiens to NOT back down on an argument, even when they are wrong….and even when the longer they talk…the more ridiculous they sound.
Atlantis?? Please spare me. ROTF.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Robert Wykoff says:
August 29, 2010 at 9:33 pm
Tom in florida, lol..sorry to go off topic, just had to respond to your flood insurance thing. I live in Nevada at an elevation of 5200 feet, my mortgage requires I get flood insurance which costs me 1000 a year. Supposedly, the valley I live in is subject to a 500 year flood. I paid good dollar to get my house surveyed, and it is over 5 feet above the “500 year flood” elevation, yet I still could not get out of the requirement. Even if I did flood, my carpets might get a little wet, but there would be a niagra falls of water taking out the entire city of reno before it could physically get higher than that.
===========================
Well if your carpets getting a little wet is all that happens, then no big deal, right, bro?
Since you live just east of the Cascadia uplift, your more pressing concern is volcanoes. But El Nino years for Reno can be a bitch, too.
Nonetheless, it is sad that the insurance industry has capitalized on the flood thing and abused a property owner like yourself.
500 year floodplain…read by a bureaucrat….is a 500 year flood plain…..what ever that is….statistically.
I get your point.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Hurricanes are untamed beasts. And New Orleans could not survive a real one. oh Katrina was big. But during Iniki, the anemometer at Lihue, 20ft above sea level, failed at 130 mph. A mere hour into the event. At The Pacific Missile Range (about 1000 ft, Makaha Ridge), at 228mph. One hour, That is sustained winds over an hour or so. The hurricane lasted about 4 hours.
I saw one house literally disappear in seconds. It appeared to blow up.
In an after study, Fujita wondered that the mini-tornadoes may have generated winds in the F-4, F-5 range. Luckily these beasts are small in area.
The water mass was incredible. Easily going 400 yards inward, sometimes twice that distance, on an island that is steep, with masses of beach sand, rock, hard surfaces and serious slope intervening.
A city built on silt, under water, does not have a chance.
Sorry.
Walter Dnes says:
August 29, 2010 at 4:03 pm
“New Orleans is a lost cause. Deal with it.”
I wonder what Walter and others would advise the Dutch to do? Seems to me they handle the threat of flooding etc with good engineering and common sense.
People have mentioned the Netherlands and Venice in the context of New Orleans. Please note that neither location, thankfully, is known for its hurricane risks.