I remember vividly being on the air at KHSL-TV reporting on this hurricane. I showed the actual path and projected path…
…and told people this during my live weather broadcast on Saturday night:
This storm will severely impact the critical oil drilling and refining area in the Gulf of Mexico. Better fill up your gas tank while you can, because gasoline prices will surely go up quickly.
I was derided by some callers to the TV station and editorial letter writers for that remark, saying that I was being “irresponsible”. A couple of days later, the inevitable happened, gas prices went up sharply.
Now, thanks to the Gore movie, An Inconvenient Truth, Katrina is still being used as the poster child for “global warming” even though the actual data does not support that conclusion. For example last September WUWT carried this article:
Global Warming = more hurricanes | Still not happening
So far the hurricane season for the Atlantic has been pretty quiet for 2009. Ryan Maue from Florida State University explains why. In related news, Al Gore has dropped the [hurricane frequency] related slide in his traveling PowerPoint show. – Anthony
Great Depression! Tropical Cyclone Energy at 30-year lows
Global hurricane frequency versus global ocean temperatures – Top image from FSU ACE, bottom image from GISS ocean data plotted by WUWT – click for larger image===============================================
And it’s still not happening this year so far:
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity still at 30 year low
From: Ryan N. Maue’s 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months …
Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sum through July 31, 2010. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/lime green boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
==============================
Even the World Meteorological Organization agrees that Gore’s Katrina connections are rubbish:
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a stunning statement in a recent report. Roger Pielke Jr. has the details on his blog. Just to remind folks that we’ve been saying much the same thing for months on WUWT…
==============================
Of course, the statistical sophistry of Michael Mann says otherwise:
Michael Mann: “This tells us these reconstructions are very likely meaningful,”
And, if this paper were a movie pushing non-existent hurricane to global warming connections like AIT, we might hear dialog like this in the vein of Apocalypse Now :
I love the smell of bullshit in the morning.
========================================================
Perhaps though the best way to remember this day is to have a look at the folly of failed environmental and flood management policy, and the photos that document the event.
From Boston.com and the “Big Picture” slideshow; praying is as futile as statistical sophistry.
Blae Bryce, 40, of Memphis, Tennessee, prays the Lotus Sutra on an Interstate 10 overpass as floodwaters rise in New Orleans on Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2005. (AP Photo/The Palm Beach Post, Gary Coronado)
See the complete photo essay here at the “Big Picture” slideshow
You may, and your points are well taken sir.
Not been a mister for some time. It’s quite nice. 🙂
I was originally going to mention the old quarter of the city not flooding but I took that out, as I wasn’t actually sure on the point; I knew that parts of New Orleans had flooded and that it seemed counter-productive to keep pumping those areas out when the pumping itself was taking them further below sea-level.
What we have here is, I believe, a polarised debate. Neither side is willing to give ground to the other lest they be seen as losing face. Well I don’t mind losing face, as I’ve lost plenty of it over the years and have little left to bother with. The idea that the entire city should simply be moved is silly, and I wouldn’t think to suggest that but, on the other hand, the idea that it can be preserved in it’s present form in toto is also silly. There is no attempt at mitigation, merely the erection of barriers that reinforce a denial that things can ever change, when Katrina demonstrated quite amply the folly of denial and the equal folly of building residences on land that is below sea level in an area with historic propensity towards floods.
Were nature to take it’s course, New Orleans would become rather like Bruges, which was once a major port but is now entirely land-locked, yet still prospered after that. The “geopolitical importance” of the city mentioned elsewhere in the thread is not inherent to the actual city, as I pointed out; it is merely a function of the connection between river and sea. Zeebrugge now serves as the port that Bruges once was.
The city doesn’t have to move, you can just built another one further down.
“”” Tom in Florida says:
August 30, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Phil Nizialek says: {August 30, 2010 at 12:45 pm}
“Tom in Florida,
Explain to me how rebuilding the resorts of Destin and Pensacola Beach, both of which appear to be in Florida, makes more sense than rebuilding New Orleans. I guess it may have something to do with the cultural significance of the strip centers, tiki torch restaurants and miniature golf courses in those places.
Please do not confuse private hazard insurance with federal flood insurance. I have no choice but to pay what the feds determine based on 1993 maps that are out of date. “””
Well I feel your pain; and I have the same problem. I own a home that is situated somewhere slightly above the former perimeter of the largest lake west of the Mississippi river; Tulare Lake, in Tulare County in California’s Central valley. My house is on a four foot high foundation above that perimeter to prevent any flood waters from entering the home. Adn I have an irrigation caanl that goes along my property to drain off any water that should land on my property. Oh; about that lake; it isn’t there any more; none of it; they built a duct to conenct it to the San Joachi river which drains into San Francisco Bay, and they drained every last bit of water from the lake out into SF Bay nearly 80 years ago. So the lake is now farmed growing grapes and the like.
If any water lands in the central valley, somebody lays claim to it, and pumps it all down to Southern California to water golf courses.
So my floor is four feet above the highest shoreline perimeter of a non-existing lake that would take years to fill even after a 5000 year storm.
And FEMA says I need flood insurance; and my mortgage company requires that I have it. I don’t carry any insurance against being struck by an asteroid or comet; but that is more likely than my being flooded.
Mr. George, I’m not sure where to start in responding to your latest post. Let’s begin, though, by my being clear that I didn’t accuse you of making up stories. Rather, I opined that your views about New Orleans and its people might have arisen from misinformation. Your latest post confirms my suspicions. Now, I’ll address your most recent points in order.
I don’t think accusing the Corps of negligence is “making up a story.” May I suggest you read LiamW’s post of 11:30 today, and peruse the attachment thereto. After you’ve done that, if you still think the Corps is blameless in the tragedy of August 29, 2005, I would be glad to address your reasons further.
The outflow canal levee failures had nothing to do with the failure of the pumping sysytem. It was, in large part the other way around. The pumps failed because they flooded from water entering the city after the levees breached. Don’t believe me. Read it for yourself. It’s all in the attachment to LiamW’s post.
I’m not sure to what “canal the city built through all this’ you are referring, so I’m having a hard time addressing this point. I’d appreciate a little more information on this one.
As for the politician with the money in his freezer, I merely pointed out to Tim that your version grouped together two unrelated stories into one Katrina myth. The freezer/fridge dichotomy is as unimportant to me as it is to you. As I said to Tim, a local politician did commandeer army resources to get to his home before others had access to the city. It may even have been the guy who later had bribe money in his freezer. No one, however, commandeered NG resources to get bribe money out of their fridge, freezer, or anywhere else during the flooding. If I’m not mistaken the guy who did these things has been sentenced to a long prison term, so I’m not sure what the point was of bringing him up in any case. If you intended to remind me that some people abuse their authority during an emergency, I freely concede the correctness of that position. I just don’t think that problem is unique to New Orleans.
I doubt you are imagining the NYT article you reference, since I have read it as well. That being said, I don’t think I have stated in my posts that everything in New Orleans is perfect five years out. What I have said is that I object to those who, like our friend at the NYTs, focus only on the problems of rebuilding a destroyed city, and leave folks like you with the impression that nothing has been accomplished here since the storm because, as you so colorfully put it, we’re all just sitting on our duffs waiting for someone to help us. To me, that story line is disingenuous. Much has been accomplished, both with and because of outside help, for which we are grateful, and through our own sweat and toil, which we give eagerly.
I have no views about the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. That’s a long time ago, and much has changed in that city, I am sure.
Your comments about us having hurricane parties and not heeding warnings to evacuate are misplaced. Sure, some hundreds of reckless youths stayed behind and caused untold grief while becoming the focus for the news people looking for the worst in folks. But see the second paragraph of my post of 3:34 PM yesterday for a discussion of this topic. You are simply wrong that New Orleans had “plenty of time to evacuate.” No one who has ever evacuated a major city in the face of a life threatening event would ever make such a statement. There’s simply no such thing as “plenty of time” when major hurricanes threaten.
Your thinly veiled accusation of racism in your ninth ward comment really grates. I really shouldn’t dignify it with a response, but what the hell, I’ve already wasted this much time trying to reason with you.
You admit you know nothing about New Orleans, have never been here, and don’t want to, so it follows you have no understanding of the rebuilding process here and what motivates it. The fact is that when citizens, as opposed to government planners, rebuild destroyed cities, they do so by regrowing the city organically from the neighborhoods that have survived the disaster. And so it has been in New Orleans after Katrina. The first neighborhoods to rebuild were those adjacent to the French Quarter, Mississippi Ridge and Esplanade Ridge, where damage was less because those places were high ground. Those rebuilding drew on the still existing services of the areas that survived the calamity. As neighborhoods recovered, places adjacent to those could rebuild, and so on. While this organic growth wasn’t the only way places in the city rebuilt, it did predominate.
Geographically, the lower ninth is separated from the rest of the city by a canal. As a result, it was, pre Katrina, a more or less self contained city within the city accessed only by bridges. The devastation in the lower ninth was total. Few buildings survived, and none which could offer the neighborhood needed services such as groceries, dry cleaners and such. Because it is geographically isolated, it is difficult for the folks who lived there, many of whom are poor and lack cars, to return there by drawing on the services of other, redeveloped adjacent neighborhoods. Although houses have been rebuilt, the people have not returned, in my view in large part because the services are not readily available.
Not every problem in the South can be explained away by racism, Mr. George, despite you folks in California trying to make it so. The world really is much more complicated than that.
And I don’t have any basis for believing any of the “explanations” given here any more than those given out by the NEWS media.
If they get it wrong; then we all are misinformed; I actually have a real job to do, so I don’t have time to independently check the copy of every news reporter in the nation for factual correctness.
But I do understand the problem. Having been from time to time, an insider on various and sundry “news” stories; and having never read one of them which failed to get the facts incorrect, then I suppose we shouldn’t believe any news stories. And that includes stories wherein I personally provided the correct facts in the first place, before they were “edited”t o reveal the creative licence of the editor.
Mr. George, on the topic of the inaccuracy of MSM reporting I agree with you wholeheartedly. I, too, have had the misfortune of dealing with the media during “newsworthy” events. Not once in my experience have they ever gotten even the most basic facts correct. It boggles the mind. It’s also way off topic, Mr. Moderator, so that’s the last I’ll say on that.
George E. Smith says:
August 30, 2010 at 4:10 pm
….But I do understand the problem. Having been from time to time, an insider on various and sundry “news” stories; and having never read one of them which failed to get the facts incorrect, then I suppose we shouldn’t believe any news stories. And that includes stories wherein I personally provided the correct facts in the first place, before they were “edited”t o reveal the creative licence of the editor.
________________________________________________________________
I can second that opinion. Every news story I have been connected with was badly mangled also. My Husband’s family owned a newspaper, and according to them the only news that is reported correctly is the sports scores, otherwise its “all the news that fits we print.” Selling advertizing and getting the paper out on time are much more important than getting the facts correct. After all tomorrow the paper will be wrapping fish or lining a bird cage so who cares about the facts as long as it sells.
“”” Phil Nizialek says:
August 30, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Mr. George, on the topic of the inaccuracy of MSM reporting I agree with you wholeheartedly. I, too, have had the misfortune of dealing with the media during “newsworthy” events. Not once in my experience have they ever gotten even the most basic facts correct. It boggles the mind. It’s also way off topic, Mr. Moderator, so that’s the last I’ll say on that. “””
Well Phil you may regard it as off topic; but I don’t. After all, I base my judgements on what I read; since I don’t have time to go and get all the news originally from where it happened for myself.
So if someone accuses me of making stuff up in my “idea” generator; I feel it is quite on topic to point out were the possible errors really lie.
“”” Phil Nizialek says:
August 30, 2010 at 4:00 pm
Mr. George, I’m not sure where to start in responding to your latest post. Let’s begin, though, by my being clear that I didn’t accuse you of making up stories. Rather, I opined that your views about New Orleans and its people might have arisen from misinformation. Your latest post confirms my suspicions. Now, I’ll address your most recent points in order. “””
So then where was it that you found anything about racism in my comments; since you did not exclude me in your comments about “you folks in California;” and nothing in any of my posts made any reference either directly or implied about any racial issues. You obviously know nothing whatsoever about New Zealanders; or you wouldn’t make such an absurd inference, and you obviously don’t know anything about me; my Mother-in-Law would burst an artery if she read your comment.
“”” Your comments about us having hurricane parties and not heeding warnings to evacuate are misplaced. Sure, some hundreds of reckless youths stayed behind and caused untold grief while becoming the focus for the news people looking for the worst in folks. But see the second paragraph of my post of 3:34 PM yesterday for a discussion of this topic. You are simply wrong that New Orleans had “plenty of time to evacuate.” No one who has ever evacuated a major city in the face of a life threatening event would ever make such a statement. There’s simply no such thing as “plenty of time” when major hurricanes threaten. “””
Well I can’t remember whether it was three days or four days of advanced warning that the city had notice from the National Hurricane center in Florida; during which time, the mayor apparently did not even conclude that he should move a whole bunch of buses to higher ground so they would be available for use in an evacuation. Maybe that is not a long time; but if that apparently too short a time had been used effectively ; perhaps a lot of people would have been saved. Even in my own family; when it comes time to go out to dinner; some family members don’t seem to understand the concept of going to the front door and exiting; shutting and locking the door behind them.
If you have a major city like NO; and even I with very limited and indirect knowledge of the place, regard it as a major city; having a known perennial hazard situation; namely the possibility of Hurricanes or severe river flooding even; would have in place an emergency plan for dealing with such situations; time permitting; up to and including possible evacuation of the city.
Just this past weekend; a very large number of people; some estimates put it at from 300,000 to 500,000 actually descended on Washington DC, to all gather on the National Mall, for some kind of a rally; and then they all got up and left; and even had time to pick up any trash they might have had and put it where it would not junk up the place before they left.
And that was all completely un-organized by anybody; people just showed up. I know of persons from California who did the round trip in under 24 hours; and they were simply going to a party; not seeking to escape a major impending disaster, that they had been warned about.
So what is a reasonable amount of time in your view for people to get in a bus, car, plane or train and go to some safer place; and I expect there are always a lot of people who have no car; which is why you have contingency plans in major cities to take care of the needs of all.
And the Federal Government cannot do that; they are not equipped to do that; and have not the means of doing that. FEMA is a relief agency that arranges low cost rebuild loans for persons after some calamity; they have no infrastructure for moving large numbers of people.
So what is the capacity of new Orleans Stadium; and how many days does it take to empty that place out after a football game.
It seems that too many people simply don’t understand the concept of crisis and are ill equipped to handle a real emergency; even if their life; or the lives of others depend on it.
And in today’s world you will have people standing around yakking on their cellphones or looking up some app on their strawberry or whatever pocket toy they can’t do without.
I hate to mention the evaccuation of Dunkirk in 1940; not a huge number of persons by today’s standards; but they all had to be gotten onto ships; and the docks were under constant attack so they were unusable. But everybody pitched in with whatever they had to get things to work.
I’m sure anxious to learn what you think is a reasonable length of warning that a category 5 hurricane should give to people; before it slams into them.
Well, George, you did write about the failure of the ninth ward to have been repaired, “or is the repair work being rationed out to people who are worth helping.”
If that was more innocent than I took it to be, I apologize to both you and your mother in law. Pardon my sensitivity, but I’ve heard others use similar phrases to imply the ninth ward has not recovered as well as other parts of the city only because its residents were primarily African-American, and other New Orleanians did not believe they were worthy of help as a result. In my view, that is simply untrue, and I’ll take issue with anyone who raises it.
You are correct that I know nothing about New Zealanders. I’ve never had the pleasure of meeting someone from that fair country, but certainly look forward to the day I do.
I’m giving up the ghost here, Mr. George. You can have the last word on all this. No more points for me to make. See ya.
Mr. Nizialek, as I said before….your comments are the most reasonable on this post so far.
A lot of hot, dry air otherwise!
So that’s where the bubble of useless dry hot air went after it left Moscow!
There’s an upper level high parked right over this post, and I am parched, so I will sign off with ya.
Don’t sweat it, bud.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Here’s a good topo map of NO, from the Wiki Drainage in NO page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Msyelevst.jpg
Most everything north of the Mississippi embankment, including Metairie, is below sea level, and Lake Pontchartrain (really an estuary opening into the Gulf) is 3 feet above sea level (on average). The Lower 9th Ward is 7-9 ft below sea level, and therefore 10-12 ft below lake level. My heart goes out to the people that the US Army COE suckered into living there!
How about we release the Mississippi through the airport into Lake P for a half century until the lake silts up, and then turn it west for a while? It won’t really be natural, but eventually we must simulate an orderly delta buildup.
I’ve been dutifully watching Brian Williams, but the 9th ward should have been conceded to Lake P 5 years ago.
“Even the World Meteorological Organization agrees that Gore’s Katrina connections are rubbish:”
They said nothing of the sort. Absurd misrepresentation doesn’t make you look good.
Ref – RW says:
August 31, 2010 at 2:19 am
…”They said nothing of the sort…”
______________________________
They didn’t? Hummmmm… this is worse than I thought. They agreed with him? The WMO ‘agreed’ with Fat Albert? Are you sure? Maybe… maybe.. it wasn’t that they ‘agreed’ with him, but they didn’t say anything one way or the other? Interesting! Well, maybe not ‘interesting’, maybe it’s.. ah… hummmmmmm..
“”” Hu McCulloch says:
August 30, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Here’s a good topo map of NO, from the Wiki Drainage in NO page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Msyelevst.jpg “””
So what are we looking at? Is that big blue region at the top the Gulf of Mexico or is that the lake they talk about.
Do I see a canal of some sort that goes from that blue region down the left side of the 9th ward area ?
And here I thought there wasn’t any canal cut through the city; according to the experts who apparently live there.
“”” Phil Nizialek says:
August 30, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Well, George, you did write about the failure of the ninth ward to have been repaired, “or is the repair work being rationed out to people who are worth helping.” Well Phil, you at least did quote exactly what I wrote.
And I did gather from what limited TV coverage of the event, I saw; that that particular area of NOL was a poor neighborhood.
It was however you who point out that the the inhabitants are largely African-American; and it was you who equated ethnicity rather than economic status, with being worth helping (or not) I did not; and never have.
It is not for us to judge who is or is not worth saving; we help whoever is in need; if we can.
The Office of The Census still have some unemployed chap harassing me, because on April first of this year, I responded to their first question “How many people were living in this house on April 1 2010?” with my answer (3), and for their second question, ‘how many people live in this house?’ I put —– since I did not understand the question, and that is what I mailed in on April 1. I did not answer any of the other superfluous questions; since it is a violation of Federal Law to discriminate on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin or whatever; and also against my belief system.
I told the harasser that the next census will be on April 1/ 2020 and if I am still around, I will tell them how many people live in whatever asylum I happen to be.