Of course the big news today is the 8.8 earthquake in Chile and the Tsunami warning stemming from it. There’s not much I could add that’s not already being covered, but I thought this image from the American West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center was interesting. They posted this map with estimated arrival times of tsunami waves generated by the 8.8 earthquake earthquake off the coast of Chile:
Even more interesting is the map they published of the path of energy distribution in the waves. It looks like Hawaii will dodge the worst of it:
The image above depicts wave height in centimeters.
I’m not posting direct links to these images at the center since I don’t want their server to be overwhelmed, so I’ve stored them locally.
It looks like the Aleutian islands may get some significant portion of this as will New Zealand.
The Tsunami Warning Center has a very detailed list of estimated arrival times for waves generated by Saturday’s 8.8 magnitude earthquake at many locations along the west coast of the United States. On the US West coast, the first waves to arrive will be in San Diego just after noon PST.
BONUS:
Quite possibly the stupidest science headline ever, from MSNBC and LiveScience:
Big quake question: Is nature out of control?
and
Chile Earthquake: Is Mother Nature Out of Control?
Newsflash: Nature has never been within our control.
This article at Livescience which MSNBC picked up was written by Jeanna Bryner,
who has also written articles on “The Perils of Text Messaging While Walking” and “Wanted: The Equation of Love”
Her apparent justification for the current headline:
“One scientist, however, says that relative to a time period in the past, the Earth has been more active over the past 15 years or so.”
Since the introduction of the Internet and proliferation of live global satellite news coverage, also in the past 15-20 years, we certainly do hear more about what goes on around the planet, often within minutes of occurrence. Does that mean the planet is getting more active? Not neccessarily, but you can draw the conclusion that are reporting system has improved dramatically during that period.
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when you’ve done door to door you realise every streets got a nutter in it, then it’s just working out which door not to knock on.
The woldly warming Earth due to CO2 ix swelling and that causes earthquakes. It is all your fault…
wildly that is.
24 hour news has a lot to answer for. My thoughts are with the people hurt in Chile, but other than that, nothing to see here, move along tsunami voyeurs.
@hermie: yes, it is true, check her profile: http://twitter.com/vicksvncia
My Worry is our access to the ‘Big Iron’ data sets ‘our’ ability (skeptics) to analyze it.
From Nature ‘………The continent of Antarctica is warming up in step with the rest of the world, according to a new analysis. Scientists say data from satellites and weather stations indicate a warming of about 0.6C over the last 50 years. Writing in the journal Nature, they say the trend is “difficult to explain” without the effect of rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere…’
IN the blogs in 3/2007 at WUWT by Lon to Anthony………………
————————————————————-
Anthony,
You make a number of good points. Particularly in the fact that the writers may have applied changes in urban temperature measurements over large regions for graphical impact. As someone who has designed and built electronic temperature sensors I have certain concerns about the data itself.
Unless temperature sensors are regularly calibrated I think it is unreasonable to expect accuracy of greater than a couple of degrees. Even some that are calibrated may not have good accuracy. The LM34 which is a commonly used semiconductor for measuring temperature is +/-2 degrees F. This is pretty typical of analog or digital semconductor sensors. The temperature error for this part is also non-linear, and so it’s not a simple offset that you have to account for during data collection. Furthermore, there are lots of additional errors that can creep into a temperature measuring device beyond the sensor itself.
http://www.national.com/pf/LM/LM34.html
One could argue that numerical analysis done on data points would tease out errors. But if a scientist doesn’t know the exact accuracy of a temperature sensor then they couldn’t account for errors in their system. Some of the temperature sensing stations may be very accurate and regularly calibrated. But maybe they’re not? I have a hard time trusting that the data is accurate to the level of identifying 1 or 2 degree changes over decades. This is especially true since the techniques of making these measurements have changes over that time frame.
Lon……………..
————————————————————-
So: Difficult to explain an Antartic wide warming 0.6 c change teased out using thermometers accurate to (+/-) 2.0 Degrees Fahrenheit (per reading?)per Lon…….
0.6c ! Not 0.7c and not 0.5c but 0.6C. Accurate to within a tenth of a degree centigrade over 50 years!!!
Stephen Skinner (15:09:55) :
“BONUS:
“Quite possibly the stupidest science headline ever, from MSNBC and LiveScience:
Big quake question: Is nature out of control?””
It’s worse then that, my parents are in there 80’s and I just got done with a rather lengthy e-mail reply to my mother explaining that ‘no…the world isn’t coming to an end’.
The idiots are scaring the elderly.
I’m late into this thread, but it appears that Hawaii has been spared of any real damage. The 1960 Chilean earthquake cleared the waterfront in Hilo.
I know I’m headed off into the grass here but since it was brought up above, can some one explain how socialism is a right wing doctrine? OK. How about if I call it National Socialism. Or as I prefer – right wing compared to what?
BTW I do agree with the person that brought it up on another point. Our biggest danger is not from tsunamis but politics. Tsunamis can kill thousands. Politics kills millions. In the twentieth century two Communist regimes and one socialist regime are in the lead.
My wife and I were walking pooch 10:45 AM ish (GMT + 12) down at south New Brighton beach in Christchurch NZ and we saw what we thought then was an extraordinary low tide where the sandspit across the local estuary mouth was completely exposed.
We got told about the tsunami and 15 minutes later the “tide” was surging up the estuary. We hung around for a while but there weren’t any more surges. Checked WUWT and there was already a posting about it.
Now Al Gore can start bellowing about how the frequency and intensity of earthquakes is increasing due to global warming. I’m sure a graph can be created that shows the correlation, and correlation is proof!
Chile is a modern nation with good building standards. There is probably a stock of older buildings that have or will have collapsed, but because the building standards are good the death toll of 147 (as I now hear it) suggests to me quite a lot of damage as well.
In contrast, an event of much smaller magnitude in Haiti caused far greater death toll. In the U.S. only Southern Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest Coast are capable of producing equally energetic earthquakes. The Pacific Coast south of Cape Mendicino probably cannot muster anything approaching 8.0, and the intermountain seismic zone or area around new Madrid, Missouri probably cannot exceed 7.1. I attended a Civil Defense workshop in Ashland, Oregon in 2000, and we were informed that an earthquake of this magnitude on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (North of Cape Mendicino) would probably affect the Portland and Seattle Metro areas equally. We in small towns were told we could be “on our own” for three months or longer in such an event.
“eh, just a minor website with no readership. What we are looking for is a major news outlet. -A”
Google “Chile earthquake global warming” and tell me how many hits you get. It’s already being put out there on numerous messge boards. Topix has a flippin’ *POLL* on whether or not it was cause by global warming. I’m not kidding…
Bulaman (12:01:47) :
What weight does a Tsunami surge place on the unlerlying crust? If a column of water 6000 feet thick is lifted 2 feet (latest height report from the Chathams) that is a lot of unusual load as it rolls across the globe?
But you don’t lift the 6000 feet of water two feet, you add two feet to it. You would add the weight of 2 cu.ft. for each sq.ft. or roughtly 125 lb/sq.ft. or 0.87 lb/sq.in. to the ~2600 lb/sq.in. already there. Rather insignificant.
Will this tsunami impact on Pacific sea temperature, El Niño or the SO Index?
The actual headline has changed to: “Big Quake Question: Are they getting worse”?
Did ya’ll save the original screen capture with that headline?
Richard (14:38:21)
I was keying about Hawaii and was responding to an official report. No doubt there well could be some destructive scenarios resulting from this tsunami, but hopefully not. Keep heads up. Tokyoboy has expressed concern as well as you for NZ – quite rightly and so am I.
I was mostly remarking about the over emotional concern a FNC commenter expressed for the cliff top civilian observers on Oahu? who were a couple hundred feet above the ocean. Not a risky situation in my opinion, at all.
Here’s hoping no more serious damage, loss of life in incurred above that already realized in Chile and Argentina. Everyone must take whatever safety measures should be taken according to the level of risk in each situation. Better safe than sorry. Boats at docks, etc. can certainly be a problem in channeled inlets as you mention.
How about when it’s tarted up as socialism but is, in fact, neomonarchism ??
I’m guessing that Anthony will risk having everyone eject their breakfasts by having the Al Gore article up tomorrow. I have a much longer version of my “answer”. Maybe there’ll be some discussion on that possible thread that will keep it more on-topic.
Hello
I have been pondering this for some time..
would anyone want to entertain the possiblity of a correlation between this 8.8 mag quake and the recent burst of x ray out put from the sun..
the point..
I beleive there is a relationship between the quake.. its location.. and when and where the magnetic event effected earth..
I am reaching.. yes.. but cant help but mention that thre seems to be a direct relationship between them
This event sets up an interesting data set. The amount of ocean water churned by this event, is it enough to mix the deeper cooler water with the warmer surface water which in turn cause a slight drop in water surface temperature
?, or is the wave spread out across the ocean mainly a surface event with little mixing with the deeper water. A close tab on surface ocean temperature over the near future could be a very interesting data set to follow.
Nature. The solution is to do nothing. When a system is fundamentally flawed, then simply step out of its way and nature will correct itself.
We live in a fundamentally flawed system. Nature is correcting itself, but the near future will probably be considerably more than what we are now seeing (a severe earthquake per month).
Very unlike me not to be conspiratorial, under the circumstances.
Let me add..
I am seek an education.. in relationships.. not a furthurance of doomsday theories..
i have followed this with a laymens enthusiasm for years.. read arcticles and papers that show clear relations ships. between solar cycles volcanism and earthquakes.. just the timing of the recent signifigant uptick senht my mind buzzing(perhaps it was the brandy…. or watch my wind up al gore talking head.. )
How was it in the California coastal areas, Anthony?
Well,
We evacuated this morning around 9:45 am. We went up to the school where my son attends club soccer. It is 100 ft or so above sea level and far inland from the beach. We couldn’t see the ocean from there so we listened to our radios and waited. While we luckily dodged a bullet this time as the waves that reached us were only about 1-2 meters depending on the location, the evacuation went smoothly. Ironically, we had dinner with the Governor last night in Waikiki. Apparently the Tsunami warnings were issued about midnight and we had left the hotel ballroom about 10:30. My inlaws live on the next block and they have been flooded before. They decided to stay. One day, it won’t be the small waves and they will be sorry…
sam bailey states:
“would anyone want to entertain the possiblity of a correlation between this 8.8 mag quake and the recent burst of x ray out put from the sun..
the point..
I beleive there is a relationship between the quake.. its location.. and when and where the magnetic event effected earth..”
Coincidence in time and space has little to do with cause and effect. The effect of a dispersed magnetic event on stressed tetonic plates will be miniscule. Perhaps it happened a second earlier than it would have otherwise, or maybe the magnetic event stopped it from happening for an extra second? Bottom line, no appreciable impact.
Edwin French asks:
“The amount of ocean water churned by this event, is it enough to mix the deeper cooler water with the warmer surface water which in turn cause a slight drop in water surface temperature”
In an ideal wave, a particle or molecule winds up in the same place it started. Mixing and thermal transfers will ne negligible.