Tsunami threat for the Pacific

Of course the big news today is the 8.8 earthquake in Chile and the Tsunami warning stemming from it. There’s not much I could add that’s not already being covered, but I thought this image from the American West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center was interesting. They posted this map with estimated arrival times of tsunami waves generated by the 8.8 earthquake earthquake off the coast of Chile:

Even more interesting is the map they published of the path of energy distribution in the waves. It looks like Hawaii will dodge the worst of it:

The image above depicts wave height in centimeters.

I’m not posting direct links to these images at the center since I don’t want their server to be overwhelmed, so I’ve stored them locally.

It looks like the Aleutian islands may get some significant portion of this as will New Zealand.

The Tsunami Warning Center has a very detailed list of estimated arrival times for waves generated by Saturday’s 8.8 magnitude earthquake at many locations along the west coast of the United States. On the US West coast, the first waves to arrive will be in San Diego just after noon PST.

BONUS:

Quite possibly the stupidest science headline ever,  from MSNBC and LiveScience:

Big quake question: Is nature out of control?

and

Chile Earthquake: Is Mother Nature Out of Control?

Newsflash: Nature has never been within our control.

This article at Livescience which MSNBC picked up was written by Jeanna Bryner,

who has also written articles on “The Perils of Text Messaging While Walking” and “Wanted: The Equation of Love”

Her apparent justification for the current headline:

“One scientist, however, says that relative to a time period in the past, the Earth has been more active over the past 15 years or so.”

Since the introduction of the Internet and proliferation of live global satellite news coverage, also in the past 15-20 years, we certainly do hear more about what goes on around the planet, often within minutes of occurrence. Does that mean the planet is getting more active? Not neccessarily, but you can draw the conclusion that are reporting system has improved dramatically during that period.

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142 thoughts on “Tsunami threat for the Pacific

  1. The USGS is saying that an aftershock of 7.8 is not impossible. Would something like this – or even the 6.x aftershock – create additional tidal waves?

  2. Another interesting thing to check out is the underwater topography around the Big Island in the S.E. ( GoogleEarth if you have it ). Very steep ascent from the ocean floor to land; 17k foot depth to shore line in about 20 miles, and no reef to slow it down, plus some funneling areas. I think there will be some significant flooding and possibly triggering of underwater landslides.

  3. These maps are good examples of the usefulness of models of future events.
    REPLY: I agree, wave propagation is linear and fairly easy to predict and model. But like all models it will succumb to chaotic factors with time and distance. I wonder how well they do on predicting secondary waves that rebound? – A

  4. Yes aftershock can but doesn’t necessarily create further water displacement: and nowhere near the scale of the original.
    Remember too that the wave height quoted is not amplitude, peak to trough, it is the height above mean sea level.
    Which is why as it approaches areas of land which shelve gradually into the sea the sea first retreats and then returns as a much higher wave capable of great destruction because of the enormous kinetic energy it contains.
    In deep water of course it is little more than a very fast moving, hundreds of miles per hour, ripple which is why is doesn’t trouble ships far out at sea.
    Kindest Regards

  5. (1) Here’s good live coverage for Hawaii:
    http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/Global/category.asp?C=176904&nav=menu55_1_1
    and live beach webcams in HI:
    http://hawaiianbeachcams.com/beachcams/livecams/lanikai.html
    (2) Interesting the breach in our magnetosphere known as the Southern Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) begins in Chile at around the 36th degree latitude and that is also the location of these earthquakes.
    http://www.geschichteinchronologie.ch/
    http://www.earthquake.usgs.gov/
    (3) World seismic monitors going bezerk:
    http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Data/heli2.shtml

  6. This a very sad event, but it reminds us of how little:
    a.) Control mankind has over catastrophic events like this, and
    b) The unholy alliance of scientists and politicians can predict.
    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Emeritus Professor of
    Nuclear & Space Studies
    Former NASA PI for Apollo

  7. What weight does a Tsunami surge place on the unlerlying crust? If a column of water 6000 feet thick is lifted 2 feet (latest height report from the Chathams) that is a lot of unusual load as it rolls across the globe?
    Dangers to humanity
    1) Earthquake/Tsunami (Tectonic)
    2) Volcanoes
    3) Asteroids
    Very distant last = global warming

  8. The Marquesas have reported 6 foot waves ashore. Hawaii is in full disaster preparedness mode and coastal road closures are imminent. PTC has advised them that 10 foot waves are possible, but actual height unknown. Navy at Pearl Harbour has begun to move 4 ships out to sea, as is the recommendation for small craft owners as well. Hotel guests are advised to go to at least the 3rd floor if they are in the tsunami evacuation zone..

  9. The magnitude of an eathquake has nothing to do with the size of the tsunami. The size of the tsunami is all about the original displacement of water (volume, rate, and direction). The depth and type of earthquake can change the way the tsunami is formed quite dramatically. Also just like any wave the channel can substantially attenuate the wave, for example the continental shelf for california is not a nice gentle slope but a succession of peaks and valleys parallel to the shore, which suck energy from extremely long period waves like tsunamis.

  10. For all of you earthquake experts out there: was this another subduction zone type of earthquake? The 8.8 reading is pretty strong. God bless and keep the people of Chile, they’ve had so many of these bad quakes over the years.

  11. Actually the models do quite well at this sort of thing.
    The classic model is the Darbyshire one dimensional wave equation much used by naval architects, physicists, oceanographers etc. which is very satisfactory at predicting wave conditions based on wind strength and fetch.
    But as its name suggests it cannot model the effect of crossing wave trains which can produce freaks, and it is only recently that we have started to be able to observe, measure and model these. Because such freaks are rare and short lived these model studies are probability based.
    Again athough it will model very well the wave emanating from a single source such as a hurricane it cannot handle local effects close to the shoreline.
    In a tsunami however it usually does very well because they are low amplitude solitons travelling at very high speed over deep water and almost all the kinetic energy in the wave is dissipated when it comes ashore: any secondary wave formation is thus largely confined to the immediate locality.
    Kindest Regards

  12. Leif Svalgaard (11:46:01) :
    These maps are good examples of the usefulness of models of future events.
    REPLY: I agree, wave propagation is linear and fairly easy to predict and model. But like all models it will succumb to chaotic factors with time and distance. I wonder how well they do on predicting secondary waves that rebound? – A

    The NZ GNS Tsunami watch ran predictive models,but were limited in which scenario to use due to initialization.They had to wait for initial wave heights in outlying islands,The focal wave at 44s 180w were 27cm,The secondary wave amplitude is 50cm.

  13. Bulaman (12:01:47) :
    What weight does a Tsunami surge place on the unlerlying crust? If a column of water 6000 feet thick is lifted 2 feet (latest height report from the Chathams) that is a lot of unusual load as it rolls across the globe?

    Negligible, in deep water the wave height is only inches high, and due to its very long wave length is almost undetectable. It only achieves significant depths as the wave energy runs into the ocean bottom near landfall. Compared to normal crustal loads it would be like a small ripple on a pond.
    Larry

  14. Nobody has made a crack about global warming causing earthquakes yet?
    Good, because that would probably be innapropriate.
    a jones,
    Are freaks technically different from rougue waves or is it just a matter of SSDN?

  15. For all of you earthquake experts out there: was this another subduction zone type of earthquake?
    According to the USGS, this “earthquake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates. The two plates are converging at a rate of 80 mm per year. The earthquake occurred as thrust-faulting on the interface between the two plates, with the Nazca plate moving down and landward below the South American plate.”
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/poster/2010/20100227.php
    Wow. 🙁

  16. Dr Svalgaard ~ Given your solar expertise, do you think the EQ was an effect from the magnetic filament snapping off? Or one of the CME’s? Or none of the above……Thank you…..

  17. Who knew, a Tsunami wave travels on average at 450 mph. Given the time from the epicenter and distance to Hawaii (close to 7,000 miles) equals 15.5 hours from the event. Very close to the graph.

  18. As Tsunamis reach both polar regions, is there any scientific paper researching the effects on the mass on ice in that regions? As a layman i would guess that tsunami could break parts of the ice shields and so Tsunamis would have effects on the total amount of ice in that regions.
    Is there an effect which is more than negligible?

  19. Maybe we should all jump up in the air at the same time and knock some sense into our ‘out of control planet’.
    THANKS — Great pictures, I wonder how do they determine the energy distribution. Don’t tsunamis move in the upper water mass, you would think that only land masses would change the energy reflections and things like that. Somebody has a seriously fast computer.

  20. Bulaman (12:01:47) :
    “What weight does a Tsunami surge place on the unlerlying crust? If a column of water 6000 feet thick is lifted 2 feet (latest height report from the Chathams) that is a lot of unusual load as it rolls across the globe?
    Dangers to humanity
    1) Earthquake/Tsunami (Tectonic)
    2) Volcanoes
    3) Asteroids
    Very distant last = global warming”
    The real number one is not on your list unless it was your intend only to list Natural Dangers to humanity!
    IMO the biggest short term risk to human civilization are the extreme left and right
    doctrines like Communism and National Socialism.
    These doctrines have killed more people than all natural events put together.
    I am convinced that the current “Green Doctrine” striving for World Governance fit that category.
    Watch your back when Government officials speak words of praise about the mass murderers of the passed.
    Watch your back when people with the stature of John Holdren are found in high positions.
    The biggest threat to humanity is man!

  21. >>>Big quake question: Is nature out of control?
    >>>Chile Earthquake: Is Mother Nature Out of Control?
    Typical out-of-touch Greenie responses. However:
    a. 150 years ago, we would not know about this event for another two months or so.
    b. 150 years ago there were far fewer people and high-rise buildings to cause mayhem.
    The more we populate the planet, the more that mother nature’s occasional hiccups will affect us.
    .

  22. Suranda (12:49:55) :
    Dr Svalgaard ~ Given your solar expertise, do you think the EQ was an effect from the magnetic filament snapping off? Or one of the CME’s? Or none of the above……Thank
    None of the above. For once, the solar wind effect from the Filament or the CME had not yet reached the Earth last night, if it ever will [it might miss us].

  23. The first wave that hit the Chatham Islands were 30 cms. Then they went up to 500 cms then a metre and at one place 1.5 m.
    Here the Banks peninsular will be the worst hit. Arrived there now, but it helps that its low tide.

  24. I’m thinking the Galapagos islands must be right in the path of the strongest wave surge of the Tsunami. Any news on what has happened there??

  25. The storm surge is just now arriving in Hilo, Big Island. Nothing major yet, but definite discoloration of water and some strange currents. The water is a bit lower than normal low tide.
    Here on Maui it’s like a ghost town on the beach. The beachside park across the street from me in S. Kihei is shut down. The normally busy street is deserted. Lots of people just hanging out on their lanais watching the water. I typing this from the 4th floor, about 300 yards from the beach.
    Lots of anticipation, ever since I was awakened at 6AM by the tsunami siren down the street, but so far nothing going on.
    A potential side effect is wastewater discharge to the oceans because the water department has shutdown some facilities as a preventative measure.

  26. Hope it doesn’t awaken any of the giants, we’ve had five larger volcano eruptions in 2008 and 2009. One being Chaiten in southern Chile. Big waves are heading for the northern hemisphere volcanic islands, great *eyes wide open*. If we get some more big volcanoes right now, it will make for more wild & harsh winters, I guess global warming sure enough will be dead then.
    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm

  27. The NZ waves have generally been c 0.3-0.4 m with the exception of the Chatham Islands where it has been 1 m. It is unclear whether these are just the initial waves, as the site warns that waves may come over a 6 hour time period, and the first may not be the worst.
    Official updates can be found here. It is being regularly updated even though it is Sunday here.
    http://www.civildefence.govt.nz/memwebsite.nsf

  28. Hmmm, still watching FNC for the surge. The female host (van Daris?) is quite excited. Fairly annoying.
    Showing Long Beach, CA receded water from the marinas (also low tide).
    It seems like deep water buoys or other air/water surveillance would track the surge closer. Still pretty normal water. My niece lives on Oahu but I haven’t spoken with her.

  29. 11:43A HST. Water level as Hilo continued to go lower on the live TV shot on channels 5 and 8, with the outgoing currents being clearly visible in some areas. It now appears to have reached the low water of the first wave. Hard to judge the height.
    11:45 — water is clearly coming back into Hilo bay.
    Nothing visible yet here on Mai.
    Low flying helo just came by yet again warning people off the beach.

  30. Gotta love those folks on the cliffs! If anything dramatic occurs at all . Ah ha…1.5 ft high on the big island.

  31. Water is now flowing out of Kahului harbor on Maui. Lots of discolored water.
    So far nothing extremely dramatic. Kind of like having a tidal cycle of a 4 feet, but with a period of just a few minutes rather than 12/24 hours.

  32. I blame it on humans, specifically Harrison Ford flying his plane up the coast to get a cheeseburger. Or it is punishment from (pick your deity) for not agreeing anything in Copenhagen.
    That’s science.

  33. Des (13:40:46) :
    Anybody else hear Obama saying “we can’t control nature”
    What? I didn’t hear that, but I’m beginning to suspect a false prophet and a less than an Omnipotent one!
    Very sorry about the folks in Chile and now Argentina (a 6.6). An interesting comparison between the results in Chile and Haiti. Pretty low fatalities in Chile, it seems.

  34. One scientist, however, says that relative to a time period in the past, the Earth has been more active over the past 15 years or so.”
    Good grief, surely the people of Chile and anyone else in the way of this deserve better.

  35. One reason I moved from the Oregon Coast. Tsunamis and Subduction zone
    Earthquakes, I went out and hugged by Columbia River Basalt Column. -Which
    is what we in most of Ne Oregon sit on….

  36. Biggest waves in Hawaii seem to be about 3 feet above sea level (6 feet from crest to trough). Those shouldn’t do much damage.

  37. Female host on FNC said,
    “Many Americans are in Hawaii as they are on vacation there.”
    I hope she meant to say Chile.

  38. The third pulse has been and gone at Hilo. No damage, no injuries. The Tsunami warning center is not removing the warning, but are not anticipating any major threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

  39. just heard surge hit southern california. they said they noticed it but it wasn’t much.
    nothing big happened. Still it was good that they knew ahead of time.

  40. I love that MSNBC is claiming that earthquakes seem bigger lately. Gee, I wonder if they are referring to the change of scale that has an 8.3 (Richter) as an 8.8 (New fangled scary scale)
    They really do believe we are all stupid: Unfortunately, they may be correct. My neighbours all just got into their truck for a drive up the valley “Just in case”. Here we are already at 565 feet above sea level. I mentioned that just before they drove away and was met with a bunch of deer in the headlights.
    Sigh…

  41. paullm (13:46:36) : Gotta love those folks on the cliffs! If anything dramatic occurs at all . Ah ha…1.5 ft high on the big island.

    Dont know which big island youre talking about. Here in New Zealand we are already having 1 m surges in Northland. Thats 3.3 ft and as you might know its not the height but the power of the tsunami that counts. If the surges continue into high tide later in the day moving at upwards of 300 km per hr, with several kms of water behind it, when channelled into low lying channels it can do a bit of damage.

  42. Here in S. Kihei, I was only able to detect a change because it was an relatively calm day with only small waves and swell. The water level seemed to go down a foot so and then come back up, with a period of several minutes. More exciting than watching paint dry, but not by much.

  43. [Oliver, I’ve told you several times that your attempts to hijack threads with your solar theories, that have nothing to do with the thread, are unwelcome.
    You’ve been warned gently, firmly, and strongly. Yet you’ve ignored those warnings here again trying to push your solar theories on a thread about a Tsunami.
    You are banned for this continued behavior. You are now permanently unwelcome here, all further comments from you will be deleted wholesale. – Anthony]

  44. Just saw a report that NSW (Australia) has closed its beaches, but crowds of onlookers are forming “just back from the sand”. Hoo Boy, that’ll keep them safe (not)

  45. RIchard, we happened to be swimming on NZ Northland east coast beach in the Bay of Islands around 9 am and there was no sign of anything but a bit of water discoloration. The media excitement about the 1m wave was in Tutukaka harbour which is a very narrow entrance bottle shaped harbour and the only gap in a row of cliffs so obviously magnifies things.
    Here are the wave gauges for NZ and offshore islands:
    http://www.geonet.org.nz/tsunami/index.html
    Only the Chatham Islands and Gisbourne saw much significant.

  46. The lady reporting on the tsunami from CNN must have attended the same class as Al Gore, where he learned that the Earth’s core temperature is millions of degrees. She tells us the tsunami has travelled “hundreds of thousands of miles” from the earthquake in Chile. Once someone tell her at the break, I’m guessing her face temperature will also be millions of degrees.

  47. Gee. How the misinformation spreads. Our local Melbourne Australia networked radio news is quoting some geological expert as saying this latest Chile event is the largest earthquake for the last hundred years.
    Guess they forgot about 2004 Aceh or 1960 Chile, etc etc.

  48. BONUS:
    “Quite possibly the stupidest science headline ever, from MSNBC and LiveScience:
    Big quake question: Is nature out of control?”
    Please be fair as the title is this, unless it was changed:
    “Big quake question: Are they getting worse?”
    Reading the whole article reveals a more balanced view and contains this statement:
    “… But in the grand scheme of things, geologists say this is just Mother Nature as usual.”

  49. Didn’t even make it to midnight before someone played the AGW card: http://www.khurak.net/chile-earthquake-2010-0019073/
    “The analysts are of the view that these catastrophes are the outcome of global warming.”
    I really want to know who these “analysts” are….
    REPLY: eh, just a minor website with no readership. What we are looking for is a major news outlet. -A

  50. The best tweet I read today while searching for news about the Hawaii tsunami was:
    vicksvncia: global warming its the cause of everything…. poor chile and hawai!
    :

  51. when you’ve done door to door you realise every streets got a nutter in it, then it’s just working out which door not to knock on.

  52. The woldly warming Earth due to CO2 ix swelling and that causes earthquakes. It is all your fault…

  53. 24 hour news has a lot to answer for. My thoughts are with the people hurt in Chile, but other than that, nothing to see here, move along tsunami voyeurs.

  54. My Worry is our access to the ‘Big Iron’ data sets ‘our’ ability (skeptics) to analyze it.
    From Nature ‘………The continent of Antarctica is warming up in step with the rest of the world, according to a new analysis. Scientists say data from satellites and weather stations indicate a warming of about 0.6C over the last 50 years. Writing in the journal Nature, they say the trend is “difficult to explain” without the effect of rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere…’
    IN the blogs in 3/2007 at WUWT by Lon to Anthony………………
    ————————————————————-
    Anthony,
    You make a number of good points. Particularly in the fact that the writers may have applied changes in urban temperature measurements over large regions for graphical impact. As someone who has designed and built electronic temperature sensors I have certain concerns about the data itself.
    Unless temperature sensors are regularly calibrated I think it is unreasonable to expect accuracy of greater than a couple of degrees. Even some that are calibrated may not have good accuracy. The LM34 which is a commonly used semiconductor for measuring temperature is +/-2 degrees F. This is pretty typical of analog or digital semconductor sensors. The temperature error for this part is also non-linear, and so it’s not a simple offset that you have to account for during data collection. Furthermore, there are lots of additional errors that can creep into a temperature measuring device beyond the sensor itself.
    http://www.national.com/pf/LM/LM34.html
    One could argue that numerical analysis done on data points would tease out errors. But if a scientist doesn’t know the exact accuracy of a temperature sensor then they couldn’t account for errors in their system. Some of the temperature sensing stations may be very accurate and regularly calibrated. But maybe they’re not? I have a hard time trusting that the data is accurate to the level of identifying 1 or 2 degree changes over decades. This is especially true since the techniques of making these measurements have changes over that time frame.
    Lon……………..
    ————————————————————-
    So: Difficult to explain an Antartic wide warming 0.6 c change teased out using thermometers accurate to (+/-) 2.0 Degrees Fahrenheit (per reading?)per Lon…….
    0.6c ! Not 0.7c and not 0.5c but 0.6C. Accurate to within a tenth of a degree centigrade over 50 years!!!

  55. Stephen Skinner (15:09:55) :
    “BONUS:
    “Quite possibly the stupidest science headline ever, from MSNBC and LiveScience:
    Big quake question: Is nature out of control?””
    It’s worse then that, my parents are in there 80’s and I just got done with a rather lengthy e-mail reply to my mother explaining that ‘no…the world isn’t coming to an end’.
    The idiots are scaring the elderly.

  56. I’m late into this thread, but it appears that Hawaii has been spared of any real damage. The 1960 Chilean earthquake cleared the waterfront in Hilo.

  57. I know I’m headed off into the grass here but since it was brought up above, can some one explain how socialism is a right wing doctrine? OK. How about if I call it National Socialism. Or as I prefer – right wing compared to what?
    BTW I do agree with the person that brought it up on another point. Our biggest danger is not from tsunamis but politics. Tsunamis can kill thousands. Politics kills millions. In the twentieth century two Communist regimes and one socialist regime are in the lead.

  58. My wife and I were walking pooch 10:45 AM ish (GMT + 12) down at south New Brighton beach in Christchurch NZ and we saw what we thought then was an extraordinary low tide where the sandspit across the local estuary mouth was completely exposed.
    We got told about the tsunami and 15 minutes later the “tide” was surging up the estuary. We hung around for a while but there weren’t any more surges. Checked WUWT and there was already a posting about it.

  59. Now Al Gore can start bellowing about how the frequency and intensity of earthquakes is increasing due to global warming. I’m sure a graph can be created that shows the correlation, and correlation is proof!

  60. Chile is a modern nation with good building standards. There is probably a stock of older buildings that have or will have collapsed, but because the building standards are good the death toll of 147 (as I now hear it) suggests to me quite a lot of damage as well.
    In contrast, an event of much smaller magnitude in Haiti caused far greater death toll. In the U.S. only Southern Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest Coast are capable of producing equally energetic earthquakes. The Pacific Coast south of Cape Mendicino probably cannot muster anything approaching 8.0, and the intermountain seismic zone or area around new Madrid, Missouri probably cannot exceed 7.1. I attended a Civil Defense workshop in Ashland, Oregon in 2000, and we were informed that an earthquake of this magnitude on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (North of Cape Mendicino) would probably affect the Portland and Seattle Metro areas equally. We in small towns were told we could be “on our own” for three months or longer in such an event.

  61. “eh, just a minor website with no readership. What we are looking for is a major news outlet. -A”
    Google “Chile earthquake global warming” and tell me how many hits you get. It’s already being put out there on numerous messge boards. Topix has a flippin’ *POLL* on whether or not it was cause by global warming. I’m not kidding…

  62. Bulaman (12:01:47) :
    What weight does a Tsunami surge place on the unlerlying crust? If a column of water 6000 feet thick is lifted 2 feet (latest height report from the Chathams) that is a lot of unusual load as it rolls across the globe?

    But you don’t lift the 6000 feet of water two feet, you add two feet to it. You would add the weight of 2 cu.ft. for each sq.ft. or roughtly 125 lb/sq.ft. or 0.87 lb/sq.in. to the ~2600 lb/sq.in. already there. Rather insignificant.

  63. The actual headline has changed to: “Big Quake Question: Are they getting worse”?
    Did ya’ll save the original screen capture with that headline?

  64. Richard (14:38:21)
    I was keying about Hawaii and was responding to an official report. No doubt there well could be some destructive scenarios resulting from this tsunami, but hopefully not. Keep heads up. Tokyoboy has expressed concern as well as you for NZ – quite rightly and so am I.
    I was mostly remarking about the over emotional concern a FNC commenter expressed for the cliff top civilian observers on Oahu? who were a couple hundred feet above the ocean. Not a risky situation in my opinion, at all.
    Here’s hoping no more serious damage, loss of life in incurred above that already realized in Chile and Argentina. Everyone must take whatever safety measures should be taken according to the level of risk in each situation. Better safe than sorry. Boats at docks, etc. can certainly be a problem in channeled inlets as you mention.

  65. M. Simon (16:32:14) :
    I know I’m headed off into the grass here but since it was brought up above, can some one explain how socialism is a right wing doctrine? OK. How about if I call it National Socialism. Or as I prefer – right wing compared to what?

    How about when it’s tarted up as socialism but is, in fact, neomonarchism ??
    I’m guessing that Anthony will risk having everyone eject their breakfasts by having the Al Gore article up tomorrow. I have a much longer version of my “answer”. Maybe there’ll be some discussion on that possible thread that will keep it more on-topic.

  66. Hello
    I have been pondering this for some time..
    would anyone want to entertain the possiblity of a correlation between this 8.8 mag quake and the recent burst of x ray out put from the sun..
    the point..
    I beleive there is a relationship between the quake.. its location.. and when and where the magnetic event effected earth..
    I am reaching.. yes.. but cant help but mention that thre seems to be a direct relationship between them

  67. This event sets up an interesting data set. The amount of ocean water churned by this event, is it enough to mix the deeper cooler water with the warmer surface water which in turn cause a slight drop in water surface temperature
    ?, or is the wave spread out across the ocean mainly a surface event with little mixing with the deeper water. A close tab on surface ocean temperature over the near future could be a very interesting data set to follow.

  68. Nature. The solution is to do nothing. When a system is fundamentally flawed, then simply step out of its way and nature will correct itself.
    We live in a fundamentally flawed system. Nature is correcting itself, but the near future will probably be considerably more than what we are now seeing (a severe earthquake per month).
    Very unlike me not to be conspiratorial, under the circumstances.

  69. Let me add..
    I am seek an education.. in relationships.. not a furthurance of doomsday theories..
    i have followed this with a laymens enthusiasm for years.. read arcticles and papers that show clear relations ships. between solar cycles volcanism and earthquakes.. just the timing of the recent signifigant uptick senht my mind buzzing(perhaps it was the brandy…. or watch my wind up al gore talking head.. )

  70. Well,
    We evacuated this morning around 9:45 am. We went up to the school where my son attends club soccer. It is 100 ft or so above sea level and far inland from the beach. We couldn’t see the ocean from there so we listened to our radios and waited. While we luckily dodged a bullet this time as the waves that reached us were only about 1-2 meters depending on the location, the evacuation went smoothly. Ironically, we had dinner with the Governor last night in Waikiki. Apparently the Tsunami warnings were issued about midnight and we had left the hotel ballroom about 10:30. My inlaws live on the next block and they have been flooded before. They decided to stay. One day, it won’t be the small waves and they will be sorry…

  71. sam bailey states:
    “would anyone want to entertain the possiblity of a correlation between this 8.8 mag quake and the recent burst of x ray out put from the sun..
    the point..
    I beleive there is a relationship between the quake.. its location.. and when and where the magnetic event effected earth..”
    Coincidence in time and space has little to do with cause and effect. The effect of a dispersed magnetic event on stressed tetonic plates will be miniscule. Perhaps it happened a second earlier than it would have otherwise, or maybe the magnetic event stopped it from happening for an extra second? Bottom line, no appreciable impact.
    Edwin French asks:
    “The amount of ocean water churned by this event, is it enough to mix the deeper cooler water with the warmer surface water which in turn cause a slight drop in water surface temperature”
    In an ideal wave, a particle or molecule winds up in the same place it started. Mixing and thermal transfers will ne negligible.

  72. I think Leif mentioned further up on this thread that the energy from the recent solar activity hasn’t arrived at the earth yet.
    I remember reading a geologist saying not too long ago(forgive the lack of references, I’ve been shoveling global warming from the driveway all day) that the averages given for plate movements may seem very small but on occasion those movements will jump. Like instead of a millimeter per month there will be a shift of a few inches all at once and then nothing else for several more months. That’s how you get the average low measurement for plate movement. So maybe all of this massive movement in Chile is all they’ll see for several months or years.

  73. I have to say, it is disappointing to see the in-accuracy at which their “models” predicted the magnitude of the tsunami that hit Hawaii. They were off, way off. This does nothing to bolster my confidence in climate model results. I simply do not understand how one could suggest climate models to be accurate when it is obvious that a simple fluid dynamic model, modeling a real-time observable event, can’t even come close. Astounding to me.

  74. sam bailey (17:35:29) :
    I don’t see how a direct link can work. That would not rule out an indirect one, say the center of solar mass having links to both through solar gravity variation (earthquakes) and solar magnetic fields (solar cycles).
    While I am unaware of any correlation of solar cycles and earthquake activity, that would not necessarily mean that none could exist. Still, we are a long way from the sun.

  75. Given that NOAA tends to treat every severe thunderstorm warning, every hurricane warning, and every fire danger warning the same….perhaps the real weakness here….is the lack of research and funding for the real danger of tsunamis.
    No two tsunami warnings are the same!
    Most likely, the amount of water column displacement from this earthquake is many times less, than the 1960 event.
    It is certainly different from the 1000 mile 40 foot rupture off of Indonesia in 2004 that caused an unimaginable displacement.
    People should not let their guard down just because the Pacific basin generally dodged the bullet this time.
    No two tsunamis are alike.
    With all the royal BS and foolhardy crap of CO2 research glut….seems to me there are more important areas of scientific research.
    Also…besides tsunami research….more earthquake research is needed.
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  76. MattN (17:08:03) : ”Google ‘Chile earthquake global warming’ and tell me how many hits you get. It’s already being put out there on numerous messge boards. Topix has a flippin’ *POLL* on whether or not it was cause by global warming. I’m not kidding…”
    A lot of the hits turn out to be comments or posts saying something like: “How long will it take for climate-nutters to blame earthquakes on Global Warming. …” You’ve got a self-fulfilling prophecy there, Matt.

  77. It seems to me there are two aspects that should be properly researched and modelled:
    a) propagation of tsunami’s across the oceans
    b) local geographic effects
    In combination with dispersed tidal gauges that should allow proper forecasts and warnings to be given rather than just “run for the hills” every time with the inevitable consequence that people eventually ignore them after enough false alarms.

  78. It was a “rotten” tsunami.
    Clear proof the quake and the wave were caused by AGW.
    Jokes aside, condolences to Chile.
    That is a long and shaky strip of crust you live on.
    We get quakes too, and some are “overdue”.
    Flipping cars like flapjacks “does not register” in my brain.
    I pray that earthly violence remains very infrequent.
    Tranquility to your spirits.

  79. As any good barmaid knows the shape of the container, amount of fluid in the glass, and the type of “Bump” she receives will determine whether patrons get splashed.
    The speed and direction of the disrupting impulse, plus how it fits the contour of the area from where the unexpected movement is centered, as well as the response of the local area to the stimulation, all go to shape the resultant wave, and it’s direction of focused travel.
    whether you get a splash, a slap, or a wink, has not much to do with solar activity, but whether she likes your grasp of the situation.
    *Old man’s attempt at humor*

  80. Can’t control Nature? Nonsense – didn’t a bunch of empty suits from G8 gather recently to prove they could make the Earth’s temperature rise and fall at the whim of their tax levies and the fervor of their devotion of solar panels?
    Diffraction of the solitary waves isn’t evident from the energy distribution and at this energy, I think it would almost certainly have to be noticed

  81. I saw that “Is Nature Out of Control” as well – unbelieveable!!! (I think it does deserve some kind of award; how about the “Flying Finger of Fate”?)

  82. philincalifornia (17:32:51) :
    I guess all those people who at the time thought it was socialism (you might like The Road to Serfdom by F. A. Hayek. It is a rather famous economics text) were mistaken.
    Evidently history is faring no better than the temperature records of the past. Both are being manipulated to reach a predetermined conclusion.
    He who controls the past controls the future. And who controls the present controls the past. – George Orwell – which was not his real name.
    Historical note: Orwell was the name of a small river in East Anglia. Amazing what keeps coming out of that place. Or perhaps George already had a template to work with.

  83. Geraldo Rivera on Fox, discussing the Chilean earthquake with other newsmen, nervously threw out the question “is there any possibility this event was caused by human activity?” (as if he really wanted to say “man-made global warming?) He looked pleadingly to the other newsmen on camera, who gave him no support.
    Hasn’t Geraldo ever heard of the theory of plate tectonics? What is his understanding of what causes earthquakes to occur?

  84. savethesharks (20:10:53) :
    Given that NOAA tends to treat every severe thunderstorm warning, every hurricane warning, and every fire danger warning the same….perhaps the real weakness here….is the lack of research and funding for the real danger of tsunamis.
    No two tsunami warnings are the same!
    Most likely, the amount of water column displacement from this earthquake is many times less, than the 1960 event.

    IIRC, the Indonesian earthquake involved one plate uplifting, which created a huge wave. If the movement is mostly side-to-side, as apparently is the case in Chile, the wave is smaller.

  85. So where’s IPCC pimp Al Gore and his cheesecake pals Laurie David and Sheryl Crow to issue a tirade about “atmosphere as sewer”?

  86. Kevin Kilty (16:45:29):
    In the U.S. only Southern Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest Coast are capable of producing equally energetic earthquakes. The Pacific Coast south of Cape Mendicino probably cannot muster anything approaching 8.0, and the intermountain seismic zone or area around new Madrid, Missouri probably cannot exceed 7.1.
    You only hope. I wouldn’t bet MY house on any of this. No one has yet been able to accurately predict when and how bad any of these earthquakes would be.

  87. Not much progress has yet been made in the science of exactly when, how big or destructive earthquakes and volcanoes will be. Not enough information or understanding currently about how this fractured pile of rubble we live on moves about, so predictions are poor. As in weather/climate science, much work still needs to be done to prevent future injuries and deaths.
    However, progress has been made on reducing the effects of these demonstration of nature’s power, with better communication of information and improved building design in area where these sort of disasters are inevitable on a long-term basis.

  88. Am I alone in getting rather annoyed by these ‘Tsunami’ alerts? A devastating Tsunami is actually fairly rare and not necessarily caused by deep underground earthquakes – even when close to shorelines. I find it alarmist, and it smacks of the silliness talked about possible future global warming. This article doesn’t fit comfortably within a blog about the nonsense of warming.

  89. quick question.. i dont know much about co2/methane in the waters.
    But could this event in chile, have an effect in releasing c02 from the water or methane. since there is an agitation and a possible low level heat exchange betwen the upper and lower level waters. Could this cause increases or decreases. Sorry if someone mentioned this before.

  90. “The ghost of Big Jim Cooley (01:15:20) :
    Am I alone in getting rather annoyed by these ‘Tsunami’ alerts? ”
    Could well be. People living on the shore might rather appreciate them.

  91. “M. Simon (16:32:14) :
    I know I’m headed off into the grass here but since it was brought up above, can some one explain how socialism is a right wing doctrine? OK. How about if I call it National Socialism. Or as I prefer – right wing compared to what? ”
    You might be interested in this:
    http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=1961

  92. Being involved in disaster response as planner and first responder, and watching this unfold in Hawaii all afternoon yesterday, I can only say the Hawaiians handled this extremely professionally. The lessons of Hilo in 1960 were well learned, as well as the recent experiences in American Samoa.
    There was sufficient anecdotal evidence (and I suspect pressure data from the deep sea gauges) arriving throughout the morning (local time there) for the PTC to maintain their position that wave heights coming ashore could still be as high as 3 meters. It would be naive to think that they wouldn’t proceed on the worst case scenario.
    You don’t have the luxury of hindsight in an impending natural disaster – you go with what you can cope with, regardless of whether or not nature unfolds as you think it will. Hawaii wasn’t preparing for a 20 foot wall of water – it had no reason to expect one, but it was peparing for the possibility (not necessarily the likelihood) that they might get a 6-10 foot surge. That would have been enough to possibly cripple key infrastructure. If it doesn’t materialize, no fair, no foul – everybody goes home and is grateful the rest of their weekend (or life) wasn’t truly ruined.
    Quite correctly, they were focusing on getting people out of harm’s way, focusing on preserving their emergency response capability (and a key way to do that is to get people out of the way so that you’re not wasting scant resources rescuing idiots), focusing on the likely possibility of infrastructure damage to even small flooding. This was evident in the expressed advice for people to prepare for outages of power and water especially, and the state’s very real concern over its waste-water management. The state, correctly, wasn’t preparing for a tsunami, they were preparing for a flood.
    Even the local media can be credited with behaving professionally in this, with great coverage – not only showing people what was happening in the potential disaster area, but explaining over and over why certain preparations were being made, and why people should heed the warnings.
    Hawaii had the benefit of a decent advance warning, but even with this, they also knew exactly what they had to do once they knew they had to act. Most of their reaction wasn’t about high tech solutions, it simply was about the implementation of well crafted plans. Kudos to the state and municipal governments – many mainland regions could benefit from studying their methodologies.

  93. “A lot of the hits turn out to be comments or posts saying something like: “How long will it take for climate-nutters to blame earthquakes on Global Warming. …” You’ve got a self-fulfilling prophecy there, Matt.”
    I’m as pleased as anyone that the mainstream media hasn’t tried to link teh 2 yet. But the nutjobs on the outter fringes sure have.
    Topix: http://www.topix.com/forum/afam/TONELQN359BU27T3I
    Alan Colmes: http://www.alan.com/2010/02/27/lmgts-an-earthquake-a-tsunami-but-no-climate-change/

  94. Larry (00:32:15) :
    Kevin Kilty (16:45:29):
    In the U.S. only Southern Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest Coast are capable of producing equally energetic earthquakes. The Pacific Coast south of Cape Mendicino probably cannot muster anything approaching 8.0, and the intermountain seismic zone or area around new Madrid, Missouri probably cannot exceed 7.1.

    You only hope. I wouldn’t bet MY house on any of this. No one has yet been able to accurately predict when and how bad any of these earthquakes would be.

    We cannot predict when, but we can predict what the maximum credible event is based on the type of tectonic region. Southern Alaska and the Pacific Northwest Coast have subduction zones offshore similar to that offshore Chile.

  95. Bill Tuttle (05:44:49) :

    Since we as humans can do nothing to *cause* either tsunamis or earthquakes, the answer is that we can do nothing to *stop* either tsunamis or earthquakes.

    In the late 1960s to early 1970s, Chevron Oil and the USGS did a series of fantanstic experiments at the Rangley oil field in western Colorado where they could start and stop small earthquakes at will by injecting water underground. This was done in response to the mysterious earthquakes of the mid 1960s at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal northeast of Denver — caused apparently by disposal of wastes down a well there.

  96. Annnnd Heidi Marshall at greenfudge.com: http://www.greenfudge.org/2010/02/28/global-weather-chaos-earthquakes-tsunamis-and-flooding/#comment-4149
    “Has the weather gotten crazy enough yet for you skeptics to believe that something is seriously wrong with the planet; or does there have to be thousands of casualties added on to the increasing death tolls? If the weather keeps progressing like it has been in the past few months, I hope some people will start taking it as a serious wake-up call, because things will only get worse from here on out. “

  97. Leif Svalgaard (11:46:01) :
    “These maps are good examples of the usefulness of models of future events.”
    Hehe.
    What a cheap point that is!

  98. MattN (09:22:28) :
    Annnnd Heidi Marshall at greenfudge.com: http://www.greenfudge.org/2010/02/28/global-weather-chaos-earthquakes-tsunamis-and-flooding/#comment-4149
    “Has the weather gotten crazy enough yet for you skeptics to believe that something is seriously wrong with the planet; or does there have to be thousands of casualties added on to the increasing death tolls? If the weather keeps progressing like it has been in the past few months, I hope some people will start taking it as a serious wake-up call, because things will only get worse from here on out. “

    Yikes! – that is one seriously nutbar site. Certainly not inclined to let a actual knowledge of nature cloud their thinking…

  99. MattN (08:59:46)

    Wow, the Alan Colmes “LiberalLand” site is an eye-opener for me! I plan to stay far back.

  100. Alan Wilkinson (14:59:42) : RIchard, we happened to be swimming on NZ Northland east coast beach in the Bay of Islands around 9 am and there was no sign of anything but a bit of water discoloration.
    There were heaps of people swimming and sunbathing in Mission Bay. I took some pictures. A bit unwise when there was a tsunami warning around.

  101. I receive trash from a bunch of Planet-X/Nubiru neurotics/psychotics who see it’s influence everywhere and in their alphabet soup.
    The “Is Nature being out of control…” headline is exactly the kind of comment they do, a highly “decypherable” innuendo for the “initiated”.

  102. Warm weather = earthquake weather?
    Whither warming, earthquake warning?
    Whither waning warming, no quakes swarming?
    When warming withers, watch widdew warmists wonder why.
    oh you, wacky warming wabbits warning weally wrong… !

  103. With Gaia Earth so angry at our “AGW”
    a few “volunteers” thrown into the VOLCANO
    should calm all those retaliatory earthquakes…
    how many ya think will it take?
    There must be a formula for that “science”.
    I speculate we throw enough people in after each quake, the shaking will slowly diminish…. every time. “Cooling” the planet might take a few more.
    Just need that formula… and of course.. practice, practice, practice.

  104. I believe this has been blown out of all proportion, sure powerful quake, but given the plate techtonics in that region, a bit OTT IMO. The fault/quake and subsequent “shifting” of ocean floor were nothing like that which struck on Boxing Day 2005 in the Asia region.

  105. Has anyone seen any reporting of possible connections between “luxemberg” and the quakes (pre-shocks, main quake, and aftershocks) that have been hitting South America?
    I have nothing other than my “Huh?” alarm in my head ringing once or twice. I just recall reading in the past week or so posts about:
    – long-period waves possibly causing calving of Antarctic bergs (vice melting)
    – one of the largest ice bergs ever documented calving off
    – a major earthquake (5th?? largest ever recorded) and its associates long-period wave generation (tsunamis)
    Not to jump to conclusions… but are there any smart folks out there to shed some light or cut off the light completely on this idea?

  106. “… you can draw the conclusion that are reporting system has improved dramatically during that period.”
    Mmmpf. You can also draw the conclusion that the general level of journalistic ignorance has also grown dramatically during that period.
    Bill Tuttle — “Since we as humans can do nothing to *cause* either tsunamis or earthquakes, …”
    I dunno. A lunatic geothermal project in Switzerland was canceled because it was causing earthquakes in nearby villages. This caused the cancellation of a similar project in California. Geothermal, remember, requires drilling industrial-size holes very deep in geologically unstable, volcanically active areas of the planet… This whole “renewable energy” fad is really endangering the environment in its feckless quest for a free lunch…

  107. M. Simon (16:32:14) : edit
    “I know I’m headed off into the grass here but since it was brought up above, can some one explain how socialism is a right wing doctrine? OK. How about if I call it National Socialism. Or as I prefer – right wing compared to what? ”
    This is off topic for this blog, but essentially, the “wings” that matter in describing it thus are not economic, or social (leftists typically describe soviet socialism as “state capitalism” rather than communism, in an attempt to avoid being tarred over stalinist persecution and genocide), but instead is based on nationalism vs internationalism, i.e. nationalism (Naziism, Stalinism) is bad and therefore right-wing, internationalism (Trotskyism, Maoism, Castroism, Rooseveltism) is good and therefore left-wing.

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