While we have one blog post that shows OHC disappearing due to an adjustment by KNMI, Ocean Heat Content: cooling gone today with new adjustment, global sea surface temperatures are telling another story. That story is that our trend is down since 2002. You wouldn’t know it though to look at this NOAA chart.
Dr. Roy Spencer provides an update.
Global Average SST Update to October 14
Since the global average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (departures from average) hit a peak a couple of months ago, I thought it would be a good time to see how they are progressing. Here’s a plot of running 11-day SST anomalies for the global oceans (60N to 60S latitude):
As can be seen, at least for the time being, temperatures have returned to the long-term average. Of course, this says nothing about what will happen in the future. I have also plotted the linear trend line, which is for entertainment purposes only.
The SSTs come from the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite, and are computed and archived at Remote Sensing Systems (Frank Wentz). I believe them to be the most precise record of subtle SST changes available, albeit only since mid-2002.
Adolfo, NOAA and Unisys show almost the same thing in that spot, so there is something there that the two charts mostly agree on.
Peter Taylor,
“we really need a better handle on the recovery from the Little Ice Age – long term trends and the long cycle of 800/400 years on top of which these shorter cycles of the PDO/AMO/AO and ENSO are peaking.”
We all will be long gone by the time that occurs. In the mean time we can chase seasonal variations, adjust time intervals for decadal anomalies (pick your favorite 30 year interval), and construct with proxy chronologies.
This is not to say that we shouldn’t attempt to find a truly represenative climate signal; however, in the current atmosphere, I find that goal almost impossible.
Adam from Kansas (12:01:18) : My daughter was last week in that area and she told me there were some cloud covered and windy days, which is very rare there.
It’s “climate change”, no doubt!! :-).
But it is not something to laugh about, relative cold at the equator, then what is it in the future for higher latitudes.
DAN PANGBURN
Twentieth Century Temperature Correlation with no CO2 influence (update) by Dan Pangburn, P.E. (download the pdf file)
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4192
Adolfo: On Unisys they show this area as of yesterday up to 2 degrees cooler than usual, but back on Oct. 11 the cool area was a little cooler so it’s showing some retreat as El Nino attempts to revive itself.
That could be a little uptick that could go down again or not. As for how it shows on the NOAA map, can you trust their apparent exaggeration of SST’s which may include some cool exagegration with all the apparent warm bias?
So is that the most precipitous drop on record? Yes, I know it’s only a few years, but if that describes it then I’m sure we can expect that to be the headlines.
I have been watching Unisys for years and find it less usefull than
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/ which gives us the actual sea surface temp. If you look at the coast,off South America, you see that it is below normal all the way from it’s tip, to Ecuador. What is most interesting is how it is cool off Peru and warmer to the west. It looks like the cooler water is being pushed westward. This is not what happens during an El Nino, it is what happens in La Nina. So what is really going on? Half El Nino and half La Nina at the same time.
The low level of sea ice in 2007 was wind driven, which pushed multi-year ice into the North Atlantic which showed up this year as a cool anomaly between Canada and the UK. It is now gone but it seems to have had an effect on the flow of warm gulf water north to the EU. Without this warm water, winter temps in the UK etc. will be less than what the MET expects.
Isn’t this all similar to watching a tree grow? Yet I find myself in the stands rooting. Explosive situation…like the soccer mobs in the third world countries such as Mexico and Central America..
Ray Harper UK (02:08:00) :
The iceberg that sank the Titanic was never in the Arctic Ocean. It calved from a glacier in West Greenland which is where most icebergs in the North Atlantic emanate
Well Ray, since most of the West Coast of Greenland is within the Arctic Circle I personally would cut RBateman some slack even though the Arctic Ocean does not extend past the northern Coast of Greenland. Of course, he never actually mentioned the Arctic Ocean in his post, only the Arctic.
kent (20:11:56) :
This is not what happens during an El Nino, it is what happens in La Nina. So what is really going on? Half El Nino and half La Nina at the same time.
Good observation. Let´s ask the most informed on these matters if this is unique indeed, perhaps due to the “interesting times” of the solar minimum we are beginning to witness.
Pamela Grey (20:56:30), I too was perplexed by your reference to a ‘teeter totter’ but was too polite to ask.
Did it look like this ?…………
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/tipping_point.jpg
HadSST2 down to 0.36 deg C anomaly (vs 1960-90). Funny enough, yet in April SST were colder than in October 1941 😮
SSTs are pretty good warming metrics. Net warming between 1940s and today is barely 0.2 deg C.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1979/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1979