I found Bob’s Arctic Ocean Heat Content graph quite interesting as it may explain why we are seeing a recovery in sea ice for the last two years. It also reminds me a lot of the graph seen of the Barents Sea water temperature plotted against the AMO which WUWT recently covered here.
Update of NODC (Levitus et al 2009) OHC Data Through June 2009
Guest post by Bob Tisdale
INTRODUCTION
On October 1, KNMI updated the NODC Ocean Heat Content (Levitus et al 2009) data that’s available on Climate Explorer.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
These updates are not shown on the NODC’s Global Ocean Heat Content webpage:
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index.html
The updates also aren’t shown in the table of Global Analyzed Fields (ASCII files):
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/3M_HEAT/heatdata.pl?time_type=yearly700
But the single 22.4 MB dataset at the top of the table does contain the January through March and the April through June data, which were updated (added) on September 14, 2009:
GLOBAL, HEMISPERIC, AND OCEAN BASIN GRAPHS
Global OHC has dropped back to its 2003 levels.
http://i34.tinypic.com/dev5ld.png
Global OHC
North Atlantic OHC is continuing to decline from its 2004 peak.
http://i36.tinypic.com/ddkeas.png
North Atlantic OHC
The recent drop in the South Atlantic OHC was sizeable, but not outside of the range of its normal variability.
http://i36.tinypic.com/2m5fais.png
South Atlantic OHC
And of the remaining OHC datasets, the only two that showed increases over the past six months are the South Pacific and Southern Ocean OHC
http://i35.tinypic.com/1ys415.png
South Pacific
############
http://i38.tinypic.com/34f19p2.png
Southern Ocean
Here are the remaining OHC subsets without commentary.
http://i38.tinypic.com/j79h1i.png
Northern Hemisphere
############
http://i35.tinypic.com/cqr13.png
Southern Hemisphere
############
http://i37.tinypic.com/2wlxz09.png
North Pacific
############
http://i38.tinypic.com/6e0oax.png
Indian Ocean
############
http://i38.tinypic.com/9u417d.png
Arctic Ocean
CLOSING
Two earlier posts illustrated the impacts of natural variables on OHC. These included the ENSO-induced step changes in the OHC of numerous oceans and the effects of the NAO on high-latitude North Atlantic OHC:
1. ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data
2. North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables
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Further to my post (03:03:57) I note that lgl gives ranges not specifics so on that basis the answer to 1), 2), 3) and 4 from his earlier post would be yes, approximately, in each case but subject to the variability in each which causes climate shifts and I don’t exclude occasional shifts beyond the limits which he sets.
tallbloke (05:13:57) :
If I stick an infrared lamp kicking 160w/m^2 over a shallow metre square dish of water in the dark, what temperature will it reach before the loss to the (average temp) air equals the input from the heat source? 16C doesn’t seem out of the way to me.
Do it in the Sahara desert at night with a cooled IR filter above to remove the downwelling IR from the atmosphere and it will probably freeze.
Philip_B
The only purpose of the graphs was to show that OHC troughs 1-2 years after SST. To do that the scale on the y axis is irrelevant and you do see the years on the x axis.
Yes, the oceans absorb huge amounts of solar radiation, most of it in the upper few meters, the near IR in the first centimeters.
No, I don’t think heat transport by conduction is important in the ocean and I never said that. The heat is mostly transported by mixing, both upwards and downwards within the well mixed layer, and the ocean is both heated and cooled from the top i.e. the impact is more delayed the deeper you look.
Stephen
Right, both yes and no to be on the safe side. The figures I gave is of course on average for the whole globe and there are huge seasonal and zonal variability but the point is that on average you are missing 340 W/m2 in your ‘theory’ and you have obviously decided not to understand this.
lgl
If the variability that gives rise to cyclical climate shifts is internal to the system then there is no ‘missing’ energy.
You have obviously decided not to understand that.
The internal mechanisms which keep the system stable despite that internal variability work just as well whatever causes internal variability to arise whether it be more GHGs from enhanced ocean evaporation or more GHGs from other sources.
Phil. (07:41:56) :
Not been in many deserts have we? Without the heat source it will freeze for sure
DaveE.
Stephen
What would the surface temp of Earth be without an atmosphere?
Hotter than it is now. The oceans would vaporize until equilibrium was reached and we would have an atmosphere almost entirely of water vapor – a potent GHG.
Further reply on Joe Romms blog: We’ll see if Joe allows through ‘moderation’.
#
tallbloke says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
October 13, 2009 at 4:40 pm
John Cook says:
October 13, 2009 at 3:46 pm
“Mark, the sun isn’t heating up the oceans because the sun has been cooling since the solar maximum in 2001.”
I beg to differ with John Cook.
Through some simple modeling I have arrived at an ocean equilibrium estimate of a TSI level equivalent to around 40SSN. The sun fell below this level in early 2004. The Cazenave et al paper I linked above re-examines the JASON/TOPEX satellite altimetry data and finds that since 2005, the rate of increase in sea level rise fell from around 3mm/year to around 1mm/year. Furthermore, they estimate that since 2003, the steric component of sea level rise has fallen to 20% of the total.
This means that the oceans have risen only 0.8mm due to temperature increase since 2005. I put it to john that when error margins are considered, it is possible that the oceans are not warming.
Lindsay H. (23:31:50) : “…The records, stored in the National Archives at Kew, contain a unique and highly accurate account of temperature, ice formation, air pressure and wind speed and direction in remote locations all over the world…”
http://blog.modernmechanix.com/mags/qf/c/MechanixIllustrated/1-1946/med_rose_wisdom_die.jpg
lgl (11:14:31) : No, I don’t think heat transport by conduction is important in the ocean and I never said that.
Sure. Please take a look at my calculations earlier in this thread where I calculate the characteristic time constant of the oceans to be 55 000 years by conduction alone and ~55 years with mixing and convection. What does this mean? It means that if the heat balance of the oceans suddenly is changed dramatically enforcing the equilibrium temperature in the oceans to decrease by 10 C, it would take ~55 years for the temperature to drop 3.68 C.
[T0 – T1] exp(-t/tau) = [10 – 20] exp(-55/55) = -3.68 C.
So what DID cause the 1998 high temperature anomaly? I look at some places in the South Pacific like Macquarie Island and it is not there.
Was it simply an upwelling of a hot pocket of ocean water? Hard to believe as it seems to have appeared on regional surface records in diverse parts of the world about in the SH Winter June July Aug 1998. (My work is in progress so more examples would be greatly appreciated, especially of different monthly dates for their peak temps).
Geoff, read round Bob Tisdales site. Accumulation of heat in the PWP from the sun, followed by spreading out of warm water raising sst’s. I would add my theory that oceans globally start releasing stored heat 12-18 months after the solar minumum.
Invariant: Interesting, we should barnstorm my calcs on OHC and steric sea level with your time constants. We have been sold a dummy by the warmista. OHC is underestimated to fit their 1.7W/m^2 radiative forcing. 1993-2003 it was more like 4W/m^2. Solar max plus low cloud.
Global Average SST Update to October 14
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/10/global-average-sst-update-to-october-14/
Dear Bob,
this was very interesting to me.
I took the values from Baltic Sea, North Sea, Eastern Mid Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea from these areas from KNMI and did compare it to my LT numbers of Central Europe (in my case, Frankfurt, Germany and around).
About six month ago, I was suggesting a possible rather warm winter of 2009/2010, simply by going the solar cycles (but, whilst SC 24 is rather anemic, I reviewed my opinion). Now it looks alike as if 09/10 will be the fourth winter with decreasing temperatures, compared to the previous one.
Seems to be, my heating bill will be f$@ur momisugly#ed again. Anyway, did buy enough
for 18 month, last time, can live with that since March 2010.
I do always appreciate your articles. Go on, please!
Best Regards
KlausB