The 2009 “super El Nino” predicted by some may be a “fizzle” according reports attributed to NASA JPL’s Climatologist Bill Patzert. I wonder who he might be referring to when he says “eroding the credibility”? Hansen’s prediction perhaps?
Excerpts from three different articles below:
This year’s El Nino expected to be mild
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/21/content_12086294.htm
LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) — This year’s El Nino would be mild, resembling the pattern of 2006 and 2007, weather experts said in remarks published on Sunday.
The oscillation of hot water in the eastern Pacific Ocean is going to be a let-down, in terms of precipitation over a parched California, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) researcher Bill Patzert told the San Diego Union-Tribune.
“This El Nino is definitely puny,” Patzert said , adding that this year’s pattern resembles the mild El Nino of 2006-2007, which left California’s snowpack and reservoirs short of what water experts had coveted: an end to five years of drought.
Although the jet stream pattern still shows that California might get a wet winter, the likelihood of floods and massive rains is diminishing, the paper quoted climatologists as saying.
“We’re planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the state Department of Water resources, in an interview with the paper.
El Nino is the name given to a change in Pacific currents that moves the jet stream and storm track from their normal vectors. Strong El Ninos can see Southern California’s coastal plains get triple the normal 10-12 inches of annual rainfall.
This year’s El Nino appeared to be off to a strong start, but has fizzled.
Patzert said it’s time to find a new name for mild El El Niño, so that the public is not confused.
“You have to reserve the name ‘El Niño’ for the real big events that only happen every 12 to 14 years,” he said.
“It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”
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From the SD Union Tribune article:
Forecasters have struggled to assess this year’s El Niño, he said. Initially, one report suggested it would become the second-strongest episode on record. Now, some say El Niño has peaked and is already fading.
The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden, a senior scientist at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. El Niño has “developed in fits and starts,” he said.
Patzert said weak and moderate El Niños shouldn’t even be labeled El Niños.
“You have to reserve the name ‘El Niño’ for the real big events that only happen every 12 to 14 years,” he said. “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”
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From The Orange County register “Science Dude” Blog:
Bill Patzert, a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory who studies El Niño and advises CPC, says in an email, “There is considerable uncertainty among scientists as to whether this event will have the staying power to deliver the dramatic impacts that were seen during the last intense El Niño episode, which happened in 1997-1998.”
Recent satellite images show that the distinct signature of El Niño that appears directly along the equator has faded, and that the system may have slipped into neutral status.
“At this time, it is a long shot for this El Nino to expand and intensify into the fall and elevate the present weak to moderate El Niño episode to a stronger event,” Patzert says. “For comparison, the August 21, 1997, TOPEX/Poseidon image of the macho 1997-1998 El Niño is included here. In size and intensity it dwarfs the present conditions.”
Note the sea surface heat signature at the equator.Discover more from Watts Up With That?
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Barry L. (12:28:38) :
El Nono. Guaranteed hit with a bullet. Please compose the words and music.
Can’t argue with El Nono. Too perfect.
Although I was considering Nanoo Nanoo.
How much do you need to twist and jump in order to avoid telling the truth about what will be? They won’t say it… that the planet is cooling.
El Normalo ?
El Stupido ?
El Zoro maybe?
This year’s El Nino appeared to be off to a strong start, but has fizzled.
“It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”
Now thats not good is it? Would it further erode the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists if the world started cooling instead of warming?
We dont want the credibility of those guys to be eroded just because they are proved wrong.
God forbid! Forecasters and climatologists losing credibility, get used to it.
Actually, without wishing to appear arrogant, I predicted a ‘still born’ El Nino months ago just using the power of my intuitive intellect.
Can somebody fault me on my logic here, please.
According to the carbon cycle, ~220 Gtons of Carbon equivalent goes up into the atmosphere each year. There’s about 770Gtons up there already, which at 385 ppm, would infer that 2Gtons = 1ppm. About 1.4ppm is being added each year, which means about 3Gtons more is staying up than is falling down.
Allowing for volumetric to mass conversions, this means about 98% of the CO2 that goes up falls straight back down again within the year, which seems about right since CO2 is 1.5 times heavier than air.
Further, the nub of the argument is how much warming is as a result of CO2, and how much is natural variability. The IPCC puts it at 2.5-4degC per doubling of CO2, whereas the skeptics, at least the ones I read, put it at 0.6-1degC.
My best guess is that we will have a slightly warmer year next year (but not as warm as 1998) as a result of El Nino, and then a slow cooling for 20 years, in line with previous coolings, probably reversing about 1/3rd of the recent warming.
If it does that temps will be about 0.8degC warmer than 1850. It will also have given us six cycles of PDO warm and cool (3 each), so whatever amount above the levels we were at in 1850, could probably be said to be as a result of greenhouse gas forcing.
We’ve gone from 280 ppm in 1850 to about 420ppm by the end of the next cool phase, if the current trend persists. So that would suggest to me that 1.2-1.4degC (because GHG forcing is logarithmic) would be the amount of forcing per doubling, all other things being equal.
Anthropogenic CO2 constitutes about 3-4% of total CO2 emissions. The atmosphere is not God, it cannot decide to keep human produced CO2 up and let the naturally produced CO2 fall to Earth, so logically speaking, human emissions of CO2 cannot possibly result in catastrophic climate change, yes?
Paul
Barry L. (12:28:38) :
El Nono. yep,that’s a winner,pard.
Like a lot better than El Midoki or whatever…
Hey! Wait a minute ~ eroding credibility of long-range forecasters? When did forecasters & climatologists have credibility much beyond a day or two out?
Wait! Hold it! Let the experts talk:
El Nono =”Granpa” in Italian , no cigar here…
“Niñoito” no such word in Spanish
El Niñito = could be, is diminutive of Niño
Diminutives and aumentaitves are additive in Spanish:
Niñitito = a much smaller niñito.
Niñón = a big Niño;
Niñazo = a much bigger Niño,
and as we say in Córdoa, Argentina: “Niñazón” –or the biggest you can ever imagine: “Niñazononón”.
PS: Dave Wendt: You recite of the Green Litany was pathetically funny! You forgot to include: Ora pro nobis, et cum spiritu tuo…
Climate experts no longer spend time in the open, it would seem. I’m on the mid-coast NSW, and, yes, it’s been a very mild, dry winter and early spring. But this winter had something in common with the two previous winters, which were wet, long and cold: namely, the winds are still predominantly ocean-influenced, more north/south, less westerly, if I can put it that way.
This is a very striking climate feature of the last three years, and something quite at odds with the trend of the last thirty years. Personally, I’m not sure what to make of it. We may have El Nino, we certainly have drought…but this is not the dry, windy, positive-ion charged springs I’ve known for the last few decades. It’s sappy and kind of European.
Yes, we still get westerlies, but not for long and not for three days with great force. What’s happening? Am I the only one to observe this? Too anecdotal to be part of any “model”?
An expected warming event that does not pan out should be named “El Goreo”
Which is also a good name for a bull whos is full of ________!!
NINO3.4 SST anomalies (weekly through September 16, 2009) are still pretty flat–not showing any signs of rising or falling.
http://i37.tinypic.com/142vrzn.png
Global SST anomalies have dropped 0.08 deg C in the last 3 weeks.
http://i37.tinypic.com/122en2b.png
The link to the rest of my mid-month update:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/mid-september-2009-sst-anomaly-update.html
Eduardo Ferreyra (16:18:31) :
I like: “Niñitito = a much smaller niñito” for this one.
But why don’t we just call it ‘a Hansen’?
“David: An expected warming event that does not pan out should be named “El Goreo”
More accurately: “El Gorreado” (means someone who’s been trumped by his wife. The traditional French “cocú”).
Ric Werme (13:01:28) :
“This reminds me – I haven’t heard the term “tipping point” lately. Perhaps
the tippers are getting concerned that the temperature isn’t tipping?”
Isn’t Al Gore’s wife called ‘Tipper’?… She might be getting worried.
This is what happens when you crown experts out of individuals who have no track record of forecasting the ENSO. Or very little at the most. You bring down the creditability of the forecasting community as whole. Even those who have had success. And a long one at that.
The bottom line…. Hansen should have never been labled an expert ENSO forecaster. And his forecasts should have never been given the spotlight.
Dave Wendt (12:29:21)
“. . . Everything, everywhere on the planet is getting worse faster than predicted . . .”
Dear Dave,
Thanks for the tongue in cheek spoof of AGW scaremonger rhetorical checklist. Your superb parroting puts the real AGW hysterics to shame. Incidentally, I am truly impressed by your fluency with the language of the apocalypse that prophesies the impending demise of the mankind: it is worthy of any experienced roadside revival preacher (perhaps another job is waiting in the wings?).
The language is indeed frightening–it sounds as though we are well on our way on a rollercoaster ride to hell. How do I repent, stop drinking carbonated beverages, or stop breathing all together? Would more assiduous soft drink container recycling and frequent use of breath fresheners do the trick? I certainly hope so: I am too addicted to carbon–I am afraid that I might die without it.
All the best
… I think we are paying our bureaucrats too much money for bad service and advice….. Time to vote for politicians who have a mindset of reviewing performance, before employing or funding.
NAO,PDO and AMO are all now positive. No sign of major cool weather ahead here in the near term[next three months]. However, the Southern Hemisphere SST has been cooling . If this continues watch for cooler weather 6-8 months down the line . I see cooler weather starting in the latter part of 2010 as the long term trend of NAO[WINTER],PDO and AMO are all negative or cool.
There is a very large amount of money to be made from a climate model with even reasonably accurate predictions 3 to 24 months out.
Such a model could well exist already and its creator making a great deal of money trading natural gas and commodity futures.
I know that NG futures are good predictors of temperatures a couple of weeks out. Whether they a good predictor over longer time periods is hard to determine because so many factors come into play.
Jimmy Haigh (17:03:13) :
El Niño fantasma!
Did you all notice the source of the first report cited above:
“LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) — This year’s El Nino would be mild, resembling the pattern of 2006 and 2007, weather experts said in remarks published on Sunday.”
Xinhua, which used to be called, in English, the New China News Agency, is the official news service of the Chinese Communist Party. I find it interesting that they are putting out an article that provides a counter-balancing news story that differs from the “OMG we are all going to die” stuff put out by most of the Legacy Media.
And who said that having an undergraduate degree in Chinese Mandarin wouldn’t be useful?
Cheers,
John
We could rename La Nina and El Nino cycles as follows.
La Nina = Bada Bing
El Nino = Bada Boom
So it’ll either be Bada Bing or Bada Boom all the time…