2009 Arctic Sea Ice Extent exceeds 2005 for this date

Those that have been watching the IARC-JAXA Arctic sea ice plot, and noting the slope of gain, rather expected this to happen. Today it did.

Here’s the current IARC-JAXA Sea Ice Extent plot:

JAXA_AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_092009

source:  http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

And here is the plot magnified and annotated to show the crossing:

JAXA_2009-crosses-2005

While 2009 minimum on 09/13 of 5,249, 844 was just  65, 312 sq km below 2005 in minimum extent, which occurred on 9/22/2005  with 5,315,156 sq km, it has now rebounded quickly and is higher by 38,438 sq km, just 2 days before the 9/22/05 minimum. On 9/22/2009 it may very well be close to 60-80,000 sq km higher than the minimum on the same date in 2005.

While by itself this event isn’t all that significant, it does illustrate the continued rebound for the second year. The fact that we only missed the 2005 minimum by 65, 312, which is about one days worth of melt during many days of the melt season is also noteworthy.

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Bill J
hunter

The AGW promotion community loses another claim.
When will the leaders of that community admit they need to revisit their predictions?
I am aware of nothing else claiming to be science where questions regarding the validity of claims and predictions are ‘settled’, as the AGW promoters claim.

I did the same post as WUWT again, haha. I wouldn’t have except it was probably a few hours before this one. I have also added some updated ice area anomalies from the NOAA17 satellite as well.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/09/21/sea-ice-update/

Enduser

Hot dawg! That’s a “death spiral” if I’ve ever seen one!
BTW, I have a slightly OT question. Yesterday i saw a TV ad that showed a poor little penguin chick getting all of the deadly noxious oil cleaned off from its plumage with Dawn dish washing detergent. The message, of course was that Dawn (and its superior grease-cutting action) was helping save the environment.
I don’t seem to recall any oil spills recent or otherwise that has affected penguins in the SH. Does anyone know of any?

Antonio San

“Polar frost’ leaves 40 dead in Argentina
27/07/2009
MOSCOW, July 27 (RIA Novosti) – Severe cold weather that has gripped central and southern Argentina for two weeks has already killed about 40 people, the Infobae news website reported on Monday.
According to Argentinean media, “a wave of polar frost” came to Argentina last week and caused “a sensational drop in the temperature to minus 16 degrees Celsius.” The average winter temperature in Argentina is about 10 degrees Celsius, ranging from 20 C in the north to 1 C in the south.
Compounding the cold, several southern regions saw heavy snowfalls, including in the south of Buenos Aires province, where there was 40 centimeters of snow for the first time in 50 years.
A representative of voluntary organization “Red Solidaria” said most of the deaths were the result of hypothermia or improper use of heating devices, either by fires or carbon monoxide poisoning.
Juan Carr added that if the necessary measure are not taken, the number of people killed will exceed the number of victims of previous years – winter weather causes the deaths of about 90 people annually in Argentina.
Weather services reported that the cold weather would continue for about a week. Voluntary organizations began dispensing warm clothes and blankets to reduce the number of victims, while local media held contests for best snow photos.
Buenos Aires last saw snow in July 2007, the first time the Argentinean capital, which is situated in subtropical zone with average annual temperature of 15 degrees Celsius, had seen snow since July 27, 1928.”

Jason Bair

“Bill J (08:52:01) :
and the antarctic is still increasing ……
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries
That’s the real interesting thing for me. Both hemispheres cooling?

Douglas DC

AlGore is going to have to grow another finger on that “five year high five”….
Also-the Temps seem to be below average,too-note the DMI graph at the
right side of this page…
Also Nino appears to be fading further…

Arn Riewe

We’re in for an interesting period over the next couple of months. This is the period where the seasonal jump in the Arctic refreeze significantly exceeds the start of loss in the Antarctic. Over the past two years, this has represented a large gain in the global ice anomaly in the region of 2.5 to 3.0 million km^2. :
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
With arctic temps below the last couple of years…:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
could we see a similar bounce? If so, it would approach or exceed the highest anomaly over the 1979-2008 period. Wouldn’t that be an interesting prelude to Copenhagen?

wws

something that I’ve been thinking on for a while: it is insane that viewing the scientific claims behind climate change skeptically has come to be seen as a “conservative” view. How could that possibly have happend? There is nothing inherently “liberal” or “conservative” about science; in fact, I seem to remember many on the left complaining about the last administrations so-called lack of scientific credibility.
The worst thing of all is for a political movement to let themselves get trapped on the wrong side of some issue of fact which could turn against them and thus discredit them by showing lack of judgment. Political issues should be issues of policy, emphasis, opinion – how much tax revenue goes to defense, how much domestic, etc. Issues of fact may *influence* these priorities, but anyone with even the least bit of sense on either side should know to always leave options open for adjustment if issues of fact turn out different than assumptions. That’s just wise management.
A political movement that allows itself to get trapped on the wrong side of an unalterable issue of fact is committing political suicide.
For the record – I don’t know for certain what will happen with our climate. I will wait and see what the facts turn out to be, and I will not assume that I know what they are going to be before they happen. In no sane world should this be regarded as a “conservative” opinion – but apparently at this time our world is not quite sane.

John

Hunter, historically many sciences go through phases where a clique or theory becomes dominant through patronage (the current governments “patronize” AGW theorists through funding their research). As a modern example try hunting down some literature on alternatives to the “standard model” in physics, as well as some of the reasoning behind the apparent need for the alternatives. I know at least three alternative arguments being advanced – none of which are compatible with each other and all of which address empirical issues or theoretical points that SM treats as “settled.” As laymen, the rest of the public find themselves in the invidious position of being asked to “trust” the experts, meaning that the arguments are to authority rather than to science.

Frank

Actually, science is liberal, as in “free”. Anyone is free to participate and anyone is free to dispute findings. Jonathan Rauch uses the term “liberal scientific method” in his excellent book, “Kindly Inquisitors: The New Attacks on Free Thought”.

Chris Schoneveld

“While by itself this event isn’t all that significant”.
Indeed what does it mean, really. Look at the slope of gain of the 2008 ice extent. That surpassed the 2005 extent in October and in November was, for a short while, even greater than any of the last 7 years. Totally unpredictable behaviour as far as I can see.

Douglas DC

wws (09:18:07) :
something that I’ve been thinking on for a while: it is insane that viewing the scientific claims behind climate change skeptically has come to be seen as a “conservative” view. How could that possibly have happend? There is nothing inherently “liberal” or “conservative” about science; in fact, I seem to remember many on the left complaining about the last administrations so-called lack of scientific credibility.
Exactly-but since Galileo-science has had a political bent to it-until the facts are
now irrefutable.Like a Moose herd in your back 40-in NE Oregon…

Ted Annonson

And this morning there was snow in the high country of Colorado and Wyoming!

I’ve been watching this graph every day and waiting for an article like this. Once again the planet is telling the catastrophic AGWers that they’re wrong.

Mr. Alex

The ice caps are doing so well! Victory for the Polar bears and Penguins!

Burch Seymour

> it is insane that viewing the scientific claims behind climate change
> skeptically has come to be seen as a “conservative” view.
True, but it then allows them to claim that ‘conservatives are the ones who also reject the science of evolutionary theory in favor of creationism, so their opinions can be summarily dismissed’.
PS – Everyone on this list should (re)read Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand. I’m re-listening to the audio version now. Scary how much of it relates to the world of today, though it was written a bit over 50 years ago.

Richard

“something that I’ve been thinking on for a while: it is insane that viewing the scientific claims behind climate change skeptically has come to be seen as a “conservative” view. How could that possibly have happend? There is nothing inherently “liberal” or “conservative” about science; in fact, I seem to remember many on the left complaining about the last administrations so-called lack of scientific credibility.”
delighted to read this. My particular questioning of the environmental movement started with the Brent Spar incident in the North Sea. The environmental movement pursuaded public opinion that this redundant oil platform would be a toxic hazard if it were dumped in the deep ocean (mid- Altantic). With a large successful campaign, public pressure was put on the company and the green movement ensured the Brent Spar was brought ashore and broken up -at great expense and using a great deal of resources. It was than revealed that the oil company had been telling the truth and there was no toxic hazard from the empty oil platform. The trustworthy, earnest environmentalists had been spinning a line!
The green movement “lost” me then. I’ll make my own mind up now and question all stats and opinions – wherever they come from!
Dropping the Brent Spar into the mid Atlantic would have been like dropping a 6″ nail into Loch Ness
(Keep up the good work!)

Alec, a.k.a. Daffy Duck

Did you see nutty NSIDC report on Sea Ice Minimum???
“In addition, the Arctic is still dominated by younger, thinner ice, which is more vulnerable to seasonal melt.”
Dominated???
Did you notice the cockamamie convoluted figure #3 of the report? They are seriously trying to mislead people.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

AnonyMoose

I wonder if it will refreeze to both North America and Asia in time for all of us to drive to Copenhagen. 🙂

Benier duster

….and AMSU is still showing record high lower stratospheric temperatures for the time of year….hmmmmm

George E. Smith

Well don’t forget all those warnings, that this is “only” first year ice, and the ice volume is down because of the lack of second, third, etc ice. All of which may be true; BUT ! remember, how much of the arctic ocean volume freezes, is somewhat irrelevent; it can have only minor effect on earth’s climate.
The issue with the ocean ice, is that the open water is a near black body absorber for what little solar radiation there is up there, whereas the sea ice is a fairly good reflector, and enhances the albedo, leading to cooling.
So sea surface coverage is somewhat more important, than how darn thick that surface ice gets, which has little effect on the albedo change.
There is a CO2 effect in that the more tonnage of ice that forms, the more CO2 is expelled into the atmosphere and oceans from the freezing sea, so more ice tonnage, would seem to lead to more atmospheric CO2 which according to the AGW theory and Arrhenius, wouldn’t be good.
So I’m more interested in sea ice surface coverage, than I am in how much multiyear ice, although I do agree that more is better in the long run if you don’t want to get too unstable.
We should have an international holiday each year on the day the minimum is reached.

Rhys Jaggar

I think right now there’s a 1.5 million sqkm increase in polar ice extent vis a vis 2008.
A useful figure to take to Copenhagen perhaps?

rbateman

They are not only wrong, Smokey, they have it totally backwards.
It’s not just that the globe is not warming, it’s cooling, and it’s not exactly taking it’s sweet time about it.
Anybody living in the Alaska & Northern Canada had better take warning of what is coming.

Josh

I live in Breckenridge, CO, and it’s cold and snowing today. Fall foliage should peak in a week, or sooner with this cold and snow.

Nogw

The sun reappeared on the right column but without the supposed nr.1026 spot!

John B

The AGW position supports the left’s attack on the free market and on enterprise. Also, they have found the best way to promote the redistribution of wealth through cap and trade. I believe they have been trying to push for fast movement on policy change just in case the science turns against them. Once the policy changes are in place, it will be difficult to undo even if the science has been proven faulty.
Any questioning of the science that promotes so much that liberals desire is ridiculed as conservative attacks, even though the attacks are on the science, not on policy.

Ron

It appears clear that the onset of refreezing is occurring about a week earlier then the average for the last eight years and maybe ten days earlier than the ‘crisis’ year of 2007. This trend has got to be very discouraging for members of the ‘church’.

John B

Looking at the graphs that include standard deviation, the southern hemisphere may soon exceed normal:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
I’ll also put in a prediction of getting back within +/-2 standard deviations by October 5.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

David Alan

Back in April ’07, NSIDC had a press release titled ‘Models Underestimate Loss of Arctic Sea Ice’. Here’s a quote from that release,”… models indicate that about half of the ice loss from 1979 to 2006 was caused by increased greenhouse gases, and the other was half caused by natural variations in the climate system, the GRL study indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly higher role.” Well, NSIDC underestimated Arctic Sea Ice then and blames it on rising CO2 emissions. This year, NSIDC made predictions that have clearly overestimated Arctic Sea Ice loss and now blame natural variations. But ! But ! Even though Arctic Ice now is at 2005 levels and growing, NSIDC refuses to admit Arctic Sea Ice is rebounding. NSIDC would rather say,’ the ice is too thin’ or ‘ there is not enough multi-year ice’. What trash. I believe that whooshing sound I hear in the background is the reputation of men, like Walt Meir, swirling down the water closet. When its all said and done, I doubt men like that would even be able to get a job as a shaved ice vendor. I think its time to send an e-mail to wmeir@nsidc.org and ask him what his future plans will be when Barry looks for a scape goat to save his A$$. -David Alan-

Enduser

Ted Annonson (09:38:45) :
And this morning there was snow in the high country of Colorado and Wyoming!
____________
High country my foot. Acouple of hours ago it was snowing in Colorado Springs (that is where the mountains meet the plains.)
Not cold enough for it to stick, though.
Actually I have lived here for 30 years, and such weather is common in late September.

ahrcanum

You so rock! Right on the money as usual.

Mike86

Well, hang on to your hats. Sounds like Ms. Boxer & Co. are getting ready to push the Climate Bill through the Senate. News blip from today was saying the Democrats now think that 60 votes can be found and locked in before Copenhagen.
Maybe they’ll sell this as Climate Insurance reform.

Roger Knights

It would be neat if the red line moved above the remaining three lines and topped the chart by December.

Roger Knights

Oops–make that “remaining four lines.”

Jordan

There are two dimensions at play in looking at the minimum sea ice exent: the minimum reached and the date of the minimum.
Comparing the annual absolute minimum therefore leaves us with extra degrees of freedom and a more “noisy” measurement. The range of timing variation being around a couple of weeks according to the above data: the range of the minimum being about 1 Mkm^2.
As the theoretical minimum should be on the date of the equinox (I think), it might make sense to compare sea ice variation on the date of the equinox. This doesn’t necessarily capture the absolute minimum in the year, but it does remove one of the dimensions for making comparisons.
Just a thought – I should imagine that there will be objections.

austin

What is the ice extent graph for the theoretically maximum heat loss state for the N Pole?

40 Shades of Green

wws (09:18:07) :
…it is insane that viewing the scientific claims behind climate change skeptically has come to be seen as a “conservative” view…
I could not agree more.
The cap and tax proposal strikes me as the most incredible hostage to fortune every promulgated by a political party.
If they manage to push this through then all it will take is three hard winters to give us President Palin.

I can see it now – an hour-long science documentary advertising and celebrating the renewal and rebuilding of the Arctic ice cap.
Ok, only joking.
.

wws (09:18:07) : “…The worst thing of all is for a political movement to let themselves get trapped on the wrong side of some issue of fact which could turn against them and thus discredit them by showing lack of judgment….”
Never forget: violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.

Frank (09:28:44) : “Actually, science is liberal, as in ‘free’.”
But “liberal” no longer means a free thinker. It means a pimply PhD in Birkenstocks who judges himself by his noble intentions instead of by his actions and their consequences.

>>This trend has got to be very discouraging for
>>members of the ‘church’.
That should be Church with a capital. The organisation, not the building.
.

Sorry, I meant to say ‘BBC’.
.
I can see it now – an hour-long BBC science documentary advertising and celebrating the renewal and rebuilding of the Arctic ice cap.
Ok, only joking.
.

John Edmondson

Benier duster (10:37:27) :
….and AMSU is still showing record high lower stratospheric temperatures for the time of year….hmmmmm
I had a look at the AMSU website, where is your record high lower stratospheric temperature?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps

David Alan (11:06:33) : “…I think its time to send an e-mail to wmeir@nsidc.org and ask him what his future plans will be when Barry looks for a scape goat…”
You’ve misspelled both his name and his e-ddress. Spelling does count, sometimes, people.

Stephen Brown

Enduser (09:13:54) :
“… a poor little penguin chick getting all of the deadly noxious oil cleaned off from its plumage with Dawn dish washing detergent.”
That treatment condemns the penguin to death, as it would any sea bird. This we discovered to our horror in Cape Town in 1968. Every bird we cleaned died. You have to use a special solution to strip the oil from the feathers (I have no idea what it is). The feathers are left with a sufficient proportion of their natural oils which prevent the bird from getting saturated with water and dying of hypothermia.

Enduser

John Edmondson (11:50:04) :
Benier duster (10:37:27) :
….and AMSU is still showing record high lower stratospheric temperatures for the time of year….hmmmmm
I had a look at the AMSU website, where is your record high lower stratospheric temperature?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
______________________________________
I suspect that Benier Duster is talking about Channel 5, at 14000 ft. This channel is showing record high temps right now, even though I don’t think that 14000ft qualifies as lower stratosphere.
BTW, bad link above… Try this one.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002

Stop Press, Stop Press…
BBC World are now reporting a STEEP decrease in CO2 levels.
The reason? Either the Met Office are predicting a cold winter, or the authorities have deduced that public opinion is turning against them.
They are looking for a way out.
.

David Alan

jorgekafkazar (12:01:32) : —————– exactly! Just as much as I would like to give the man credit, his name and position will be as significant as how I posted it: Meaningless. When those in the employ of NASA stand up and take a stand against the corruption being instigated by it, I’ll provide proper links to reputable men.

mudmucker

This article is highly misleading. I notice how none of the graphs at the top show the ice extent before 2002. The reader might want to peruse the actual discussion from the actual Snow and Ice Data Center and their explanation of the wind patterns contributing to the observed ice extents over the past few years, rather than looking at catchy snippets from WUWT:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
“Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its minimum extent for the year, the third-lowest extent since the start of satellite measurements in 1979. While this year’s minimum extent is above the record and near-record minimums of the last two years, it further reinforces the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent observed over the past thirty years.”
REPLY: The AMSRE satellite data set only extends back to 2002, so it it impossible to present this data in the same time period as NSIDC. That being said, you won’t find political statements like “arctic death spiral” and “ice free North Pole in 2008” from JAXA like we did from NSIDC’s Mark Serreze.
Then there’s the SSMI sensor issue, which NSIDC missed this year, and when I pointed it out, they said “its not worth blogging about” only to then the very next day realize the seriousness of the failure and post data retractions, then going through a repair process.
I trust an organization and its data more when they don’t get politically involved and don’t have issues with sensors where they tell people who spot the problems to essentially “bug off”.
NSIDC has lost a lot of trust with a lot of people for that reason. Use them if you wish, if it suits your world view. I prefer using an data from an organization that is free of such issues. – Anthony