The 2009 “super El Nino” predicted by some may be a “fizzle” according reports attributed to NASA JPL’s Climatologist Bill Patzert. I wonder who he might be referring to when he says “eroding the credibility”? Hansen’s prediction perhaps?
Excerpts from three different articles below:
This year’s El Nino expected to be mild
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/21/content_12086294.htm
LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) — This year’s El Nino would be mild, resembling the pattern of 2006 and 2007, weather experts said in remarks published on Sunday.
The oscillation of hot water in the eastern Pacific Ocean is going to be a let-down, in terms of precipitation over a parched California, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) researcher Bill Patzert told the San Diego Union-Tribune.
“This El Nino is definitely puny,” Patzert said , adding that this year’s pattern resembles the mild El Nino of 2006-2007, which left California’s snowpack and reservoirs short of what water experts had coveted: an end to five years of drought.
Although the jet stream pattern still shows that California might get a wet winter, the likelihood of floods and massive rains is diminishing, the paper quoted climatologists as saying.
“We’re planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the state Department of Water resources, in an interview with the paper.
El Nino is the name given to a change in Pacific currents that moves the jet stream and storm track from their normal vectors. Strong El Ninos can see Southern California’s coastal plains get triple the normal 10-12 inches of annual rainfall.
This year’s El Nino appeared to be off to a strong start, but has fizzled.
Patzert said it’s time to find a new name for mild El El Niño, so that the public is not confused.
“You have to reserve the name ‘El Niño’ for the real big events that only happen every 12 to 14 years,” he said.
“It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”
=====
From the SD Union Tribune article:
Forecasters have struggled to assess this year’s El Niño, he said. Initially, one report suggested it would become the second-strongest episode on record. Now, some say El Niño has peaked and is already fading.
The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden, a senior scientist at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. El Niño has “developed in fits and starts,” he said.
Patzert said weak and moderate El Niños shouldn’t even be labeled El Niños.
“You have to reserve the name ‘El Niño’ for the real big events that only happen every 12 to 14 years,” he said. “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”
=====
From The Orange County register “Science Dude” Blog:
Bill Patzert, a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory who studies El Niño and advises CPC, says in an email, “There is considerable uncertainty among scientists as to whether this event will have the staying power to deliver the dramatic impacts that were seen during the last intense El Niño episode, which happened in 1997-1998.”
Recent satellite images show that the distinct signature of El Niño that appears directly along the equator has faded, and that the system may have slipped into neutral status.
“At this time, it is a long shot for this El Nino to expand and intensify into the fall and elevate the present weak to moderate El Niño episode to a stronger event,” Patzert says. “For comparison, the August 21, 1997, TOPEX/Poseidon image of the macho 1997-1998 El Niño is included here. In size and intensity it dwarfs the present conditions.”
Note the sea surface heat signature at the equator.Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
dang, i was hoping for a nice warm winter here in Alberta….time will tell i guess
Where are the paleoclimatologists on this one? It’s no secret, historically, California has always been a semi arid state. Droughts as long as several decades to a century have been recorded (which probably means the El Nino and La Nina events have always been around). Without the dams which were built during the early 20th century, we’d be having huge problems delivering water to our current population.
I knew it! I saw this back when it appeared to fade in July.I was online back in ’97/’98
and communicated with John Daly occasionally on that nasty bugger’s impact on the
South Coast of Oregon.This is not a big one. El Nino is dead! Long Live the Ice Queen-La
Nina! (Where its always winter but no Christmas…)
Getting firewood this week…
Finishing the Greenhouse too…
Ok…do I buy a new snowblower, or not?
Do I buy 2 tons of pellets?…or 3?
Do I buy a ton of salt/sand?…or just fill 5gal buckets at the town garage?
Do I need a new winter coat, or can I make do with last decade’s?
Do I book my vacation flights 3 days early, or not?
They’re driving me nuts.
Farmer’s Almanac calls for increased cold and snowfall in the Northeast…I think that’s the one I’m going with.
JimB
JimB
– 1 JimB
Grrrrrr.
If this potential El Nino continues to fail to get going soon, looks like we’re in for a cold NH winter. I wonder if our currently quiet sun could be part of the cause?
No El Nino, increasing polar ice? Time to prepare some ocean acidification horror scenarios in time for Copenhagen…
“The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden….”
Imagine that.
Oh, I’ve forgotten that earlier this year we’ve had several volcanoes erupting in the Pacific – Siberia and Alaska. Could they have been responsible for the weakening of El Nino? I believe we’re definitely are due for a colder winter because of those volcano eruptions.
One report suggested it would become the second-strongest episode on record
Even an ordinary farmer leaning over fence knows, that strong El Nino does not happen during the cold PDO mode. It is literally decomposing during last few weeks, despite NOAA report (those chaps who know, manage and predict everything) saying it will strengthen in fall 2009:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted
Ouch, who would say that 😮
Now guess what usually comes after wannabe El Nino..
Speaking of the sun that ‘big’ sunspot is supposed to be visible from Earth today, only problem is it’s not as big as people were hyping it to be according to this website, and also suggesting this won’t break the solar minimum
http://spaceweather.com/
”
“We’re planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the state Department of Water resources, in an interview with the paper.”
Shouldn’t all in such a position always do exactly that?
As a meteorologist she should very well know why?
Also, the SOI is also not showing any sign of a true El Nino event (it’s above 0 again) despite a warmer anomaly beneath the surface towards South America, Unisys is also showing anomalies cooler than what NOAA is showing, we’re seeing consistantly below average high temps. here most days, but lows are near average.
Arctic temps. according to DMI also continue to run colder than last year after the summer peak, Intellicast is also forecasting a serious drop in temps in Greenland on their global forecast maps.
JimB (09:40:29) :
Ok…do I buy a new snowblower, or not?
Do I buy 2 tons of pellets?…or 3?
Do I buy a ton of salt/sand?…or just fill 5gal buckets at the town garage?
Do I need a new winter coat, or can I make do with last decade’s?
Do I book my vacation flights 3 days early, or not?
They’re driving me nuts.
Farmer’s Almanac calls for increased cold and snowfall in the Northeast…I think that’s the one I’m going with.
JimB
—
These are precisely the kinds of questions I wish the climate modelers could answer with some reasonable accuracy – unfortunately, they can’t…
To avoid confusion with the real thing, perhaps a “weak” El Nino should be renamed “El Ninny” (in honor of those who think we can predict climate a hundred years in advance).
Lots of hopes going up in smoke following the pied piper.
And how do you get your reputation back?
21 August 1997 image : “Note the sea surface heat signature at the equator.”
Who wouldn’t note that super-El Nino!? What a beauty.
“Patzert said weak and moderate El Niños shouldn’t even be labeled El Niños.”
Perhaps ‘El Niño tendencies/conditions’ or ‘Pseudo-Niños’?
This reminds me of the much anticipated (wanna-be) spot which has shown itself to be useless for now. ( May 05-10 2009 all over again),, [ PS: Leif we are still waiting for solar flux to shoot up to 80 today like you promised ;).]
“Patzert said it’s time to find a new name for mild El El Niño, so that the public is not confused.”
El Niñoito
Oh dear! The Copenhageners just can’t seem to catch a break. One could almost feel sorry for them. Almost. We can look forward to Olympic-level feats of spin, backpedaling, wailing, and gnashing of teeth. Bring popcorn.
Had a warmist co-worker slap the earlier NOAA prediction on my desk-“See!
Hansen is right! _It’s a Super EL Nino!”_upon hearing that I had an image of AlGore and Hansen in Superman oufits.I said-“it’s weak and will be neutral or gone by winter.”
“You don’t trust _Scientists_?” “I trust what I see and know,and Science this isn’t…”
he looked at me like “Unbeliever!” and left me alone-which is what I wanted…
Adam from Kansas (10:06:43) :
“Speaking of the sun that ‘big’ sunspot is supposed to be visible from Earth today, only problem is it’s not as big as people were hyping it to be..”
To refresh your memory go check out the Farside images from 05-07 May 2009 and the GONG Earthside images from 10-13 May 2009… first what appeared to be two large SC 24 regions exploding violently, visible on the backside. Oh and how the celebrations began among solar circles, finally minimum was over! But alas when the two regions came round, both were corpses! (One produced a Tiny Tim later on). This is nothing new. Who knows.. maybe 1026 will be ripper!
Adam from Kansas (10:06:43) :
It’s not a big deal, Adam, I can step outside my office, project it’s faded grey form, and tell you firsthand that it’s not. There’s 4x as much white light faculae than there is sunspot.
Douglas DC (09:33:27) :
Finishing the Greenhouse too……and an Igloo, just in case…:-)
I have to laugh my ass off at the global warming conspiracy deniers when I see what the Sun is denying them every day. No sunspots for them for a very long time till they learn a lesson they will never forget, HAHA. The lesson includes, you can’t trick the world into accepting global energy rations and Rothschild style control of the energy markets through junk climate science.
Watch this 1990 documentary, it proves the on-going conspiracy to control the entire world through global taxation of the energy markets.
The Greenhouse Conspiracy
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5949034802461518010#
“The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden….”
…. depends on who you talk to – it is behaving exactly as Joe Bastardi at Accuwx said it would – and he made that prediction many months ago when it was just developing.
So, you have a private sector forecaster who’s only motivation is to get the forecast right – as his clients are depending on it (they will find a better forecaster if he messes up) and you have many grant-supported forecasters who only get their money if they scare people….. is it any wonder why one gets it right & the other gets it wrong. Cynical… maybe…. but I dont think it is coincidence …
OT- 1st snow of the season this morning here in the foothills outside Denver – 1 inch of mash potatoes and 36 deg at 6100 ft.