Source: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.11.2009.gif
Bill Illis writes in comments:
The newest Ocean SST map shows the La Nina conditions have gone away and we are in slightly positive ENSO conditions.
Also interesting is that the negative PDO seems to be moving back to neutral right now. The cool SST conditions off of Alaska (which has been there for 3 years now) looks to be moderating as well.
From my perspective, the other interesting feature is how the recent La Ninas have loaded up cool SSTs in the Pacific off south-east Asia which will soon move into the Kuroshio currrent which will then flow across the north Pacific.
The upper ocean heat content is signaling we are going to move rapidly into El Nino conditions although most forecasts are calling for neutral conditions.
Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif
Atmospheric Angular Momentum has really turned negative recently (signaling La Nina), the Trade Winds have fallen off to nothing (signaling El Nino).
So overall, the north Pacific is offically schizophrenic right now.
Adam from Kansas. 1999 and 2008 were La Ninas. I too have noticed the relatively cool anomalies in ch5, and others. Erl’s posts provide very interesting reading…..fm nice thing about predicting an ENSO event is the wait is only a few months.
Bill Illis,
Thanks for the info. Of course, I immediately have my curiosity whetted, and a whole slew of questions arise.
If the upwelling off Peru comes from a source region 500 meters down, what replaces it when it arises? What feeds the pool 500 meters down? Is there some sort of current down at that depth?
Is the upwelling off Peru at all similar to the upwelling off California?
I was involved in a discussion about the upwelling off California at some point, wherein measurements of the dissolved CO2 and acidity of the upwelling were discussed. (The measurements had changed, which some were using as a “reason for alarm.”)
Does anyone have any idea how “old” the water in the Peru and California upwelling’s are? I know the thermohaline circulation waters spend between 800 and 1600 years down deep, before arising. Is the Peruvian upwelling “younger?”
Pages 22 to 26 at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
has some decent charts of past La Ninas and El Ninos. My guess is that we are finishing a La Nina period like 1949-1951, and are entering a warm-side-of-neutral period like 1951-1954 (just prior to the whopper La Nina 0f 1954-1957.) I’m picking that analog mostly due to similarities in the PDO and AMO. Of course, if other factors, such as a long solar minimum or a big volcanic eruption, occur, it will provide a handy excuse when (and if) my guess is wrong.
Thanks again for the info.
“I don’t think that there is a direct relationship between sunspot number and the power behind radiation in the very short wave spectrum”
My recollection is ozone is created via visible spectrum and heats via UV absorption. Solar flaring boosts UV up to 100% and is weakly correlated with sunspots. At SWPC one can review Sept. 1996. No spots yet flares persisted.
UV therefore has been near its minimum since March 2007, again reviewed at SWPC.
“My guess is that we are finishing a La Nina period like 1949-1951, and are entering a warm-side-of-neutral period like 1951-1954 (just prior to the whopper La Nina 0f 1954-1957.) I’m picking that analog mostly due to similarities in the PDO and AMO.”
Interesting.
Re cause of ENSO
Academia is noticing the phenomena that I have described above:
See: http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/9/12141/2009/acpd-9-12141-2009.html
Title:
Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models
Abstract. The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. This anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of total ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent total ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA total ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations, during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability but it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.
So, the connections that I describe are validated by observation and modeling by others. Unfortunately they have the causation precisely 180° the wrong way about.
It is change in the vortex that forces ENSO. Judge for yourself. My explanation is at:
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/03/08/the-atmosphere-dancing-in-the-solar-wind-el-nino-shows-his-face/t
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/04/05/solar-warming-solar-cooling/
Paul Vaughan (13:09:05) :
Bill Illis (21:01:18)
“The Earth rotates east to west […]“
Better check this “fact”.
OK, the sun goes in the sky from east to west. The earth rotates from west to east. I always count on my fingers.
Bill is in good company. Time to tell my Feynman story once more.
I had been lucky to attend a theoretical ( I was presenting progress in bubble chamber neutrino experiments) workshop in Crete practically thirty years ago. Feynman was giving some lectures on how he saw QCD ( which is another story). The first evening of arrival at the workshop we are sitting on a large balcony facing the calm Aegean with a drink in hand, in an idyllic moment, with the moon rising full in the horizon. And Feynman waves to the moon and says:” that must be the West, then”.
You can imagine the consternation and sputterings ( but but but but) of the group of physicists, mostly senior ones, who had come to meet and honor such a great scientist.
“Feynman was giving some lectures on how he saw QCD ( which is another story). ”
Do get to that story someday.
anna v (05:41:42) “The first evening of arrival at the workshop we are sitting on a large balcony facing the calm Aegean with a drink in hand, in an idyllic moment, with the moon rising full in the horizon. And Feynman waves to the moon and says:” that must be the West, then”.”
Thanks for sharing this gem-of-a-story Anna! Cheers!
gary gulrud (13:10:23) :
“Feynman was giving some lectures on how he saw QCD ( which is another story). ”
Do get to that story someday.
Well, it is not really on topic reminiscing about past workshops :).
erlhapp (04:10:34) :
Re cause of ENSO
erlhapp,
Have you ever considered a common source of forcing for both the polar and tropical stratosphere? As your probably well aware it is supposed to be impossible to forecast stratospheric warmings from well out. At least for within a certain time frame.
Here’s a link to my own stratospheric warming forecast for this past winter which ended up being slightly off, peak wise. But like some meteorologists said, it was made from well out, so they were willing to give me some wiggle room. And nobody else tries to make these type of specific forecasts anway.
I also made a forecast the winter before and it had it’s ups and downs. No pun intended. I can supply the link to it if you want.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=182573
This site confirms my suspicion that all weather experts are fringe lunatics.
erlhapp (09:18:32) : “jorgekafkazar (08:55:54) :
Agree with your notion of the ocean as the store of energy Jorge but its the La Nina that is the heat shedder. See my figure 4 and discussion under energy flows on my latest post at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/”
Noted. Good article. Those darned clouds, again!
The development of the El Nino is coming along nicely. I hope there are still no doubts about where we are headed. Everything continues to look good space weather wise also.