High level clouds and surface temperature

Guest post by Erl Happ The orbit of the Earth’s around the sun is slightly eccentric. The closest point is called the perihelion. On January 4th the Earth is just 147,098,291 km away from the sun. Aphelion occurs July 4th when the Earth is 152,098,233 km away from the sun, a difference of +3.3%. Naturally…

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Cloud cools

Guest post by Erl Happ This post was generated in response to the Christopher Monkton thread. It is not a criticism of Christopher Monkton but of our tendency to imagine that artful mathematicians (I am not one) are sufficiently sophisticated to deal with complex problems.  Indeed the debate as to the value of feedback processes…

Where is Science?

Guest post by Erl Happ The Southern Oscillation Index is a reference point for the strength of the Trade winds. It represents the difference in atmospheric pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. In figure 1 the SOI is the red line with its values on the right axis. A negative SOI reflects slack trade winds and…

A climate change dynamic

Guest post by Erl Happ The presumption that ‘the science is settled’ is incorrect. This post aims to give readers an understanding of the dynamics of the coupled circulation of the stratosphere and the troposphere at the poles that drives surface pressure, the temperature of the troposphere, cloud cover and surface temperature. Data source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl…

The character of climate change part 4

Guest post by Erl Happ This post is best read after viewing parts one, two and three that set the scene for what is described here. I noted in parts 1 and 2 that variability in global temperature is greatest between November and March when the globe is coolest. This is related to high variability…

The character of climate change part 3

Guest post by Erl Happ Here’s a hypothetical: Let’s imagine that we have an atmosphere of two parts.  The first 10 km of the atmosphere has no greenhouse gas.  The second 40 km has a greenhouse gas incorporated. In the lower layer there is  water vapor and clouds that come and go according to the…

The character of climate change part 2

Guest post by Erl Happ What is the utility of the globe to humanity at this particular point in the evolution of the Earths disparate climatic regimes? Has there been an improvement or deterioration in recent times. To answer these questions we must look at the pattern of temperature change by latitude. The warmer latitudes…

The character of climate change part 1

Guest Post by Erl Happ Figure 1 records global temperature as it runs between its minimum in January and maximum in July. Vital information is lost when we reduce the data stream to a computed mean (maximum plus minimum/2). But that information is retained in Figure 1. Figure 1 Evolution of Global temperature from 1948…

Earth's changing atmosphere

Guest Post by Erl Happ This article investigates the sources of natural climate variation.  This is a long post but it’s a big subject. Before you get half way through, your perception of the way things are, will have changed. You might even begin to smile inwardly, as if a burden had been removed from…